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I dont know posted:Interesting. Why is Pakistan providing aid? My assumption is it's part of a favor/deal with the US. Is there something else? Are they providing aid, or just selling stuff for hard American cash?
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Nov 16, 2023 01:37
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DarklyDreaming posted:Yeah that part of the world is not without animosity to Russian imperialism Pakistan though? the Soviet-Afghan war was quite a while ago and idk that they have strong and enduring ties with the peoples of central Asia (who currently have, to be excessively brief, complicated feelings about their relationship with Russia) unless getting conquered by ancient Timurids a few times counts as such. i would figure they more just have no love for Russia because Russia's pretty friendly with India Pakistan is publicly denying any transfer of arms so the US offering cash for some stuff they had laying around in a shed seems plausible
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Nov 16, 2023 02:07
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Pakistani animosity to Russia is rooted in the Soviet Union backing India in various Indo-Pakistani wars. While now they've pivoted away from being a US ally, and functional country, in the past they were the more pro-western of Pakistan-India divide.
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Nov 16, 2023 02:55
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Pakistan is like Taiwan where they are afraid of being invaded by a much larger neighbor primarily armed with Russian-based weapons.
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Nov 16, 2023 04:14
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OddObserver posted:Are they providing aid, or just selling stuff for hard American cash? It is the latter.
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Nov 16, 2023 07:54
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Morrow posted:Pakistani animosity to Russia is rooted in the Soviet Union backing India in various Indo-Pakistani wars. While now they've pivoted away from being a US ally, and functional country, in the past they were the more pro-western of Pakistan-India divide. Yeah, Russia still is a buddy and supplier of India although not as important as during cold war, and history is not easily forgotten when the dispute continues.
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Nov 16, 2023 08:40
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Nenonen posted:Yeah, Russia still is a buddy and supplier of India although not as important as during cold war, and history is not easily forgotten when the dispute continues. India is also one of the countries that has really profited from the war by buying Russian oil and gas at discounted prices.
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Nov 16, 2023 10:05
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The X-man cometh posted:Pakistan is like Taiwan where they are afraid of being invaded by a much larger neighbor primarily armed with Russian-based weapons. This is complete nonsense. Pakistan started every war between them and India, not to mention constantly supporting terrorism against India, while India has done nothing of the kind in retaliation. Also Pakistan has nukes, their deterrence doesn't rely on conventional arms.
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Nov 16, 2023 14:56
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https://x.com/konrad_muzyka/status/1725157813364600855?s=20quote:"As I promised, I am writing. Impressions from over a week's stay in Ukraine. There will be no operational details, but please know that we met with analysts, sub-unit commanders. The trip was very productive.
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Nov 16, 2023 15:52
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https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67120904 Every now and then I see some stories about Ukrainian men avoiding being drafted, probably because of slow news day. I have talked with more than a handful of younger Ukrainian men around central Europe who have left since the war started, none have outright admited to dodging the draft, but all had no intention of going back to fight. One recent conversation was interesting, the 'kid' was 23 years old, lived just north of the Zaphorhze dam, seemingly had no ill will towards Russians (although he wished for Putin to die soon), and said the war was just for the rich to make more money. He also seemed to believe, based on conversations with friends and family fighting in the war, that Western arms/supplies are not in the equation as no one he talked to has seen them... These sentiments are of course not suprising coming from people not wishing to fight in a war and that have probably fled their country to do so, but it does worry me that this sentiment is spreading, in particular that this is a war caused, inflamed, and pressed on by profiteers.
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Nov 17, 2023 07:51
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Dick Ripple posted:https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67120904 EDIT: I misread, sorry. I mean, people not wanting to fight will always find a reason to believe that escaping their friends and family dying is always the right reason.
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Nov 17, 2023 08:05
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Dick Ripple posted:https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67120904 Interesting. Of course we need to be careful because without going to Ukraine and talking to people there, there's a massive selection bias because the young men that are outside of Ukraine rights now will mostly be draft dodgers.
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Nov 17, 2023 08:41
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Yeah the sentiment of draft dodgers is pretty obvious and not particularly reflective of non-draft dodgers.
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Nov 17, 2023 08:55
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thekeeshman posted:This is complete nonsense. Pakistan started every war between them and India, not to mention constantly supporting terrorism against India, while India has done nothing of the kind in retaliation. Also Pakistan has nukes, their deterrence doesn't rely on conventional arms. If you had done all that to your neighbour, wouldn’t you be afraid of them invading you? You might even get some extravagantly lethal weapon that would reassure you they would be stupid to do so; that wouldn’t make you not afraid.
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Nov 17, 2023 11:06
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The X-man cometh posted:Pakistan is like Taiwan where they are afraid of being invaded by a much larger neighbor primarily armed with Russian-based weapons. Not sure they'd appreciate the comparison, given they're a long term strategic partner of China who got the road decades before the belt existed.
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Nov 17, 2023 11:24
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NTRabbit posted:Not sure they'd appreciate the comparison, given they're a long term strategic partner of China who got the road decades before the belt existed. X-man meant India. Pakistan and China both have border disputes or more with India, which is a solid basis for partnership (as was the need to stop Soviet expansion during cold war).
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Nov 17, 2023 12:21
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radmonger posted:If you had done all that to your neighbour, wouldn’t you be afraid of them invading you? India's never even threatened to invade Pakistan, and do you really think Hindu nationalists want to add hundreds of millions of Muslims to India's population for the sake of some worthless dirt? Nothing in Pakistan's behavior or rhetoric has ever suggested that they're afraid of India invading, if they were they probably would have less stupid foreign policies than they do now.
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Nov 17, 2023 13:35
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thekeeshman posted:India's never even threatened to invade Pakistan, and do you really think Hindu nationalists want to add hundreds of millions of Muslims to India's population for the sake of some worthless dirt? Nothing in Pakistan's behavior or rhetoric has ever suggested that they're afraid of India invading, if they were they probably would have less stupid foreign policies than they do now. I don't think a single person was suggesting a war of annexation, and I don't think I need to explain why the border issues make further India-Pakistan conflicts a possibility.
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Nov 17, 2023 14:10
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MTLB loaded with explosives set on auto pilot: https://twitter.com/markito0171/status/1725377543799185550#m Interesting how obviously improvised these tactics are. Looks like they don't even have remote steering, just jam the wheel forward and put a brick on the gas pedal. https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1725402777705173064#m Really intense fighting ongoing. The UK now says over 300k Russian casualties: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/putin-losses-ukraine-war-300000-uk-data-b2447476.html
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Nov 17, 2023 14:16
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I swear that first video is a repost of one from like last year, right down to the focus on the soldier as they run for cover.
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Nov 17, 2023 15:20
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I saw a similar video shout from the Ukrainian side, but the vehicle almost made it across.
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Nov 18, 2023 03:00
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Pakistan also has some minor pre-Crimea Invasion arms cooperation with Ukraine.
Coquito Ergo Sum fucked around with this message at 05:48 on Nov 18, 2023 |
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Nov 18, 2023 05:37
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https://www.powervertical.org/2023/11/17/toward-a-theory-of-success-in-ukraine/ A non-paywalled recent Kofman podcast.
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Nov 19, 2023 06:25
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thekeeshman posted:India's never even threatened to invade Pakistan, and do you really think Hindu nationalists want to add hundreds of millions of Muslims to India's population for the sake of some worthless dirt? Nothing in Pakistan's behavior or rhetoric has ever suggested that they're afraid of India invading, if they were they probably would have less stupid foreign policies than they do now. India’s interest aren’t full control of Pakistan, but they would like the rest of Kashmir, thank you very much.
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Nov 19, 2023 12:56
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vuk83 posted:India’s interest aren’t full control of Pakistan, but they would like the rest of Kashmir, thank you very much. Of course they would, just like Pakistan would like India's bit of Kashmir and Bangladesh back, but if you take 2 seconds to look at the actual history of the two countries it's clear that the chances of Pakistan starting poo poo with India are far higher than the reverse.
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Nov 19, 2023 20:20
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thekeeshman posted:Of course they would, just like Pakistan would like India's bit of Kashmir and Bangladesh back, but if you take 2 seconds to look at the actual history of the two countries it's clear that the chances of Pakistan starting poo poo with India are far higher than the reverse. I really don't know who you think you're arguing with.
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Nov 20, 2023 02:29
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EasilyConfused posted:I really don't know who you think you're arguing with. This is not really surprising given that you're easily confused. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Nov 20, 2023 13:57
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Sorry, stevey. I noticed too late that you were just making a joke about the username. I don't think I have the ability to rescind a probation once given, but I will edit the rap sheet entry.
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Nov 20, 2023 17:43
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Inferior Third Season posted:Sorry, stevey. I noticed too late that you were just making a joke about the username. I don't think I have the ability to rescind a probation once given, but I will edit the rap sheet entry. You should give him a voucher to probe someone else for 12 hours.
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Nov 20, 2023 19:54
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Inferior Third Season posted:Sorry, stevey. I noticed too late that you were just making a joke about the username. I don't think I have the ability to rescind a probation once given, but I will edit the rap sheet entry. This misfire did make me laugh a lot this morning so it wasn’t all for naught.
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Nov 20, 2023 20:55
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buglord posted:This misfire did make me laugh a lot this morning so it wasn’t all for naught. Agreed, really improves the joke. Thanks for your sacrifice stevey666 
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Nov 20, 2023 22:15
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Didn't see this posted, it's a month old, interview with Stephen Kotkin re Ukraine and strategy: https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/should-the-west-threaten-the-putin-regime-over-ukraine This Kotkin guy has some weird ideas, for example he's saying the west should be threatening Putin with regime change: quote:The threat of regime change in Russia—to force Putin into an armistice to preserve his regime, or to encourage others to do it—is among the ways to get Ukraine on a path toward peace. It might look like a bad idea, based on historical examples. It would not be easy, that’s for sure. But what is the superior, realistic alternative? More tanks that have limited battlefield utility because they lack air cover, while even F-16s would have limited effect because Russia has saturation S-300 and S-400 anti-aircraft batteries and a large inventory of missiles? Are we going to bomb Russian territory, where many of those batteries are located? Are we going to bomb factories located in Russia producing replacement batteries and missiles and other weapons? Are we going to blockade all of Eurasia, from Turkey through the U.A.E., Kazakhstan, and North Korea, not to mention China, to prevent easy sanctions-busting? Conjure munitions for Ukraine out of thin air? Watch a much smaller country fight a war of attrition indefinitely, costing lives and treasure? Interesting stuff though, food for thought. Overall somewhat pessimistic tone. My ideas for ending the conflict aren't actually better than this guy's, so dunno
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Nov 20, 2023 23:13
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jaete posted:This Kotkin guy has some weird ideas, for example he's saying the west should be threatening Putin with regime change: How does he reckon we'd do a regime change on ol' Vladdy boy without exerting at least the level of effort of all those things combined, if not uhhh you know getting into WW3?
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Nov 20, 2023 23:32
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jaete posted:Didn't see this posted, it's a month old, interview with Stephen Kotkin re Ukraine and strategy: https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/should-the-west-threaten-the-putin-regime-over-ukraine Very interesting read. I had the same thoughts at the beginning of the war (but I am a total idiot) - that if you want Russia to stop quickly, there has to be sufficient domestic pressure and I don't think engineering that domestic pressure should be off the table. Especially given how much Russia has tampered with elections world wide already. I absolutely don't think successful regime change is possible from the West, but I also don't think attempting to deescalate western participation was important. Salami slicing can go both ways after all. If Putin is paranoid of Western backed color revolutions, let him keep having that fear instead of taking it off the table. I mean Russian antiwar activists are already getting thrown in prison for 7 years for stickers, so some support their way can't hurt. https://paperagency.team/skochilenko_en His point about Western rhetoric not matching Western commitments is spot on. WarpedLichen fucked around with this message at 00:29 on Nov 21, 2023 |
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Nov 20, 2023 23:38
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EasilyConfused posted:Agreed, really improves the joke. Same, it was hilarious as hell. A true pre-coffee morning probe. Please let it stand!
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Nov 21, 2023 05:29
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I think Putin has the manpower, resources and economic support from India/China to wait out the clock on this one. The west is too decadent and disinterested to support Ukraine properly with the minimum arms shipments needed to help them win. Every Ukrainian life lost in this conflict impacts Ukraine disproportionately compared to the people Russia has been throwing into this war. The Russian troops are expendable. I’m not sure Putin will score a total victory but I do think he’s going to keep everything he’s conquered so far and slowly chip away at the rest because I think western business leaders want to go back to normal and collect russian money.
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Nov 21, 2023 06:59
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Kraftwerk posted:I think Putin has the manpower, resources and economic support from India/China to wait out the clock on this one. The west is too decadent and disinterested to support Ukraine properly with the minimum arms shipments needed to help them win. Every Ukrainian life lost in this conflict impacts Ukraine disproportionately compared to the people Russia has been throwing into this war. The Russian troops are expendable. There is no going back to normal anytime soon, especially if Putin decides to sit back and ''chip away''. The current levels of support and interest are not going to just suddenly vanish either, and outside of major political changes in the US and EU majors proper support would likely remain. This is an existential fight for Ukraine, and not for Russia (although some in the Kremlin may think that). And whatever calculus you may use to determine how long a nation is willing to put up with their young men dying, usually the one facing that existential threat sticks it out longer.
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Nov 21, 2023 12:13
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Kraftwerk posted:I think Putin has the manpower, resources and economic support from India/China to wait out the clock on this one. The west is too decadent and disinterested to support Ukraine properly with the minimum arms shipments needed to help them win. Every Ukrainian life lost in this conflict impacts Ukraine disproportionately compared to the people Russia has been throwing into this war. The Russian troops are expendable. Lets play a game: I want you to imagine the number of people that Putin has to draw on for this war. The total, sky is the limit number. Then I want you to imagine what you think causalities are like for Russia right now. It's probably about 30 million when you remove women, those too young or old for even Russia, and those too sick or disabled for Russia to bother with. Not to mention the Party members that aren't going to step a single loving foot in the direction of Ukraine. And of that number, we are getting close to like 1/30th of it has already been hosed up in Ukraine. Doesn't sound like a lot? That's drawing from the entire working male population of the country. You start getting into the Cool Zone way before that number reaches half. Ukraine is in an existential war for it's survival because Russia is run by genocidal monsters. Russia is also in an existential war for it's survival because they are also totally loving incompetent at being genocidal monsters. The war for Ukraine could end in Russia's favor right this second and they'd have still crippled themselves for decades with all the dumb poo poo they did to get this far. And the war isn't, in fact, going to end anytime soon.
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Nov 21, 2023 13:48
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Mulva posted:And of that number, we are getting close to like 1/30th of it has already been hosed up in Ukraine. Doesn't sound like a lot? Last official figure from Zaluzhny was 150 000 dead, open source estimates confirm about 40 000.
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Nov 21, 2023 14:01
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Wifes and mothers of the mobilised have been lately trying to stage protests. Not against the war itself or Putin, but against the conditions under which their husbands and sons have to fight. Previously, the preferred method of spreading awareness was recording videos that later were picked up by Z tg channels, but now they are going for street protests, which means that the effectiveness of tg videos has diminished. So far, local governments prefer to reach out to organisers before they take to the streets and promise more money and benefits, and in some rare cases they send the police. While Russia managed to avoid the Afghanistan war levels of active dissent, it looks like things are slowly bubbling over.
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Nov 21, 2023 14:05
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