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Bifauxnen posted:so does this mean... you might think Hats is scum?!?! it's a theory the counter factual being you and MMT have set up opposite views on Hats to avoid connections being drawn 
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Aug 10, 2017 06:35
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Bifauxnen posted:hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm this must be why your radar is off Birb
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Aug 10, 2017 06:36
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Now the first thing that springs to mind looking at that is that D1 is always a mess. I feel like there's a lot of churn on the votes, but I also know a lot of the early votes were joke votes. I also know that I contributed to all those votes. The next thing that I notice is that there are an awful lot of votes out there and that makes me think that scum are throwing a lot of targets out there and waiting to see which one gets picked up. So I've done a relatively quick first pass of the thread from around page 13 up until now and these are my current feelings on the current vote leaders. But I'm going to go through the thread again at a slower pace after I finish this post to get a more firm grasp on some things. Hats - I can see this now more than I could before, but this is also one thing I need to look at more because I'm probably more suspicious of the people pushing Hats. TMM - Obviously a bad vote because I know I'm town. Of the two votes, I feel like TNL is more likely to be scum. I felt like his vote was a little weak and opportunistic with a thin veil of legitimate reason. I think Max's vote was just to get me to engage in the game and that's fair. I will say that something he said caught my eye and I was thinking about using the post car to try and send him a message tonight. Jeabus - This is another one I'm going to have to look at closer because I just don't see it. I'm not sure what to think of Asiina as she has been excusing herself the same as I have, but it does seem like she isn't catching as much heat for it. However, I do not feel good about Glowku at all. gif Probst - This is the vote that I am most interested in looking into because I feel like KB is being genuine with his casing and opinions, so it gives it extra weight in my mind as well. 8bux - I could honestly see either 8bux or Birb as scum. Both of them have felt somewhat opportunistic to me. Little Mac - I wasn't seeing this vote at all, so I'm not really sure what IS is thinking. Glowku - This is another person I am interested in and will be reading again. I'm pretty neutral on Foo right now. Quid - Man, my eyes just glazed over on all the Quid/MMT stuff during my first pass, so I'm really going to have force myself to dig into it. My initial thoughts keep bouncing back and forth between 'There's something here" and "No this is all just dumb", so I'll be honest and say I'm not really looking forward to it. tpink - no opinion at the moment because I'd like to firm up my opinion of MMT first. So that's a first pass through and before anyone goes 'Well, that's a whole lot of nothing', I'll urge to hold that comment and wait for me to do a second pass through as well as take some isolated looks at people. You are all so impatient and it can get kind of irritating sometimes. I understand that the game needs people to talk and explain themselves, but sometimes life is busy and it can get kind of annoying when someone gets busy and then dinged for not participating. I know it's also a scum tactic, so it's perfectly legitimate to use it as a reason, but it doesn't mean I have to like it.
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Aug 10, 2017 06:37
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You two seem to have different interpretations of what Hats was doing. Bifauxnen posted:Speculating on other factions or SK's is a great way for scum to try and look genuine in their investigations. Hats needs no such master plan. He just needed to be spitballing from a scum perspective and post it cause that felt easier and more believable than trying to whip up some fake case on a townie. Bif is saying Hats accidentally slipped and betrayed that he was looking at the game from a scum perspective (which I can at least acknowledge is a valid position to have even if I disagree with it). gif Probst posted:scum's goal is to go undetected and blend in yes. scum also does not want town to have a clear picture of what is going on. what hats did was speculative but in such a way as to put the scenario of doubt on the n0 flip from the get go. as town, what gains are there to even open a discussion like this? i don't see any, if you do please feel free to explain it to me. Probst is saying that Hats was purposely trying to cast doubt on the n0 flip to confuse town, and that it's clear because town would have no strategic reason to do so. I mean, am I wrong about that? What do you guys think about each other's opinion?
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Aug 10, 2017 06:38
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Murmur Twin posted:You two seem to have different interpretations of what Hats was doing. I think Probst's view is also a valid one, but I find my more explanation more likely.
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Aug 10, 2017 06:42
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Like seriously, I know the I can be a slow typer when I'm writing up a bigger post, but there was a bunch of posts between me just posting the vote count and me actually hitting post. So a new vote count since the votes moved:  Votecount for Day 1   The Lord of Hats (3): gif Probst, Bifauxnen, Quidthulhu, gif Probst (3): Quidthulhu, TMMadman (2): The Ninth Layer, Max Jeabus Mahogany (2): Birdstrike, Max, Asiina, Bifauxnen, Murmur Twin (2): TMMadman, Quidthulhu, Little Mac (1): Bifauxnen, Max, Quidthulhu, peramene, Mayor Glowku (1): Captain Foo Quidthulhu (1): Murmur Twin, Birdstrike (0): Jeabus Mahogany, IllegallySober (0): Max, Mithross (0): Bifauxnen, peramene (0): Max, The Ninth Layer (0): TMMadman, Eight Dollars (0): Birdstrike, Somberbrero (0): Mayor Glowku, Hal Incandenza (0): The Ninth Layer, TMMadman, Max (0): Sandwolf, Bifauxnen (0): TMMadman, Mayor Glowku, tpink (0): Mithross, Asiina (0): Bifauxnen, Murmur Twin, Not Voting (8): Eight Dollars, Hal Incandenza, Jeabus Mahogany, Little Mac, Mithross, Somberbrero, TMMadman, tpink  With 23 people still alive, it takes 12 votes to lynch. The current deadline is August 10th, 2017 at 8 p.m. EDT -- that's in about 18 hours, 17 minutes. The Sunset Limited is chugging along at a steady clip. Today's lynch method is Simple Majority! These days, nobody talks about what folks have dubbed "The Weird Times" in New Orleans last year. The Shine-soaked city was rocked by what - on the surface, at least - appeared to be a simple gang war. But those in the know agree there was something much darker going on behind that... Death walked the streets (literally, according to some stories), and left many good men and women dead in its wake.
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Aug 10, 2017 06:42
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And that's mostly for my own reference.
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Aug 10, 2017 06:43
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Bifauxnen posted:hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm *stares at ground silently*  While I appreciate the reference, I don't think that applies in a game where the good guys are an uninformed minority. You should absolutely be second-guessing yourself and it's scummy that you're not. Bifauxnen posted:but I like that he's voting Hats and I don't like that you're defending Hats, so it evens out and I got him squarely in the purple "who the gently caress knows/wait for more info" category Like you're acting like you forgot that town doesn't know what people's alignments are. I feel nearly positive that if you were town you'd be worried about "what if I'm wrong about Hats?".
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Aug 10, 2017 06:45
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Murmur Twin posted:While I appreciate the reference, I don't think that applies in a game where the good guys are an uninformed majority Mafia edit 
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Aug 10, 2017 06:46
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Murmur Twin posted:*stares at ground silently* that's the thing though even if I'm wrong about Hats, we'll learn that his spec was genuine, and that is a good thing to know I was trying to get people to read Anidav's Haunted House game recently... I tried to do the same thing then, D1 lynching someone for info about the setup, and it turns out they were the "Ghostfather" all along. I tried for days on end to get this person lynched for more and more technically wrong reasons each day, but no one ever listened to me till she won at the end. It was the Myst before Myst. gently caress caution it's D1.
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Aug 10, 2017 06:48
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What page does the N0 analysis crap start on, I've decided I probably should read the initial source after all 
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Aug 10, 2017 06:48
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TMMadman posted:And that's mostly for my own trying to look like I'm participating. fixed lol
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Aug 10, 2017 06:49
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Bifauxnen posted:that's the thing though Wait, how is learning that Hats speculating about something being genuine a good thing? It's not like that means his speculation was true. Am I missing something since I'm still catching up?
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Aug 10, 2017 06:50
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TMMadman posted:Wait, how is learning that Hats speculating about something being genuine a good thing? It's not like that means his speculation was true. it doesn't mean his speculation was true, but it means we could take it more seriously. Also, I believe the opportunity cost of "mislunching a townie D1" is very small for the potential gains in the case of Hats being scum.
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Aug 10, 2017 06:52
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Birdstrike posted:fixed lol How about "Go gently caress yourself stupid"? You sure don't seem to be saying these things about Hal or Somber or Mithross or other lurkers? So is it just that you see me as an easy target since other people like KB have mentioned my lurking as possibly being scummy?
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Aug 10, 2017 06:52
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TMMadman posted:How about "Go gently caress yourself stupid"? haha you're kind of tetchy for a dude I'm not voting, my bro
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Aug 10, 2017 06:54
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Bifauxnen posted:it doesn't mean his speculation was true, but it means we could take it more seriously. Also, I believe the opportunity cost of "mislunching a townie D1" is very small for the potential gains in the case of Hats being scum. Why would we have to take his speculation more seriously? It's still just speculation. If Hats flipped town, I don't think we really gain anything from his speculation since he wouldn't know anything setup wise unless it was role related. The most we can count on if Hats flips town is that we end up knowing his alignment and can look harder at the people who pushed him.
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Aug 10, 2017 06:55
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Birdstrike posted:haha Maybe it's because I think you're taking a lot of easy snipes at a lot of people and it's not really helping anything.
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Aug 10, 2017 06:56
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TMMadman posted:Why would we have to take his speculation more seriously? It's still just speculation. If Hats flipped town, I don't think we really gain anything from his speculation since he wouldn't know anything setup wise unless it was role related. The most we can count on if Hats flips town is that we end up knowing his alignment and can look harder at the people who pushed him. "could" != "have to"
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Aug 10, 2017 06:56
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TMMadman posted:Maybe it's because I think you're taking a lot of easy snipes at a lot of people and it's not really helping anything. hi have you played mafia? The reason I would mention you over say, Hal is that it's v uncommon for me to see you without reams of posts I probably skim over anyway. Don't fret, my shitlist is long and my vote movable.
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Aug 10, 2017 06:58
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anyway, in closing if there's any time for paranoia and handwringing and fearful self-doubt over the fearful ramifications of making a wrong choice it's not on bloody D1
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Aug 10, 2017 07:00
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On re-reading Bif, this jumped out at me:Bifauxnen posted:I noticed that later and thought that might have been what you meant, but it does still seem like a stretch to me, especially since you mentioned other scum factions: Ecco was NK'ed - your first thought was that Vengeance did it? (a) Are you Vengeance-aligned? (b) Do you have the ability to NK people? (c) Are you aware that Shine 1 and Shine 3 both had multiple scum factions?
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Aug 10, 2017 07:00
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Bifauxnen posted:"could" != "have to" But I still don't understand why you would even think you "could" take it seriously because it's still speculation from someone who can't know the setup because he's town.
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Aug 10, 2017 07:01
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Bifauxnen posted:anyway, in closing if there's any time for paranoia and handwringing and fearful self-doubt over the fearful ramifications of making a wrong choice it's not on bloody D1 But, similarly, if there's any time for acting like you're absolutely certain that you know who the right person to lynch is, it's not on bloody d1 either.
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Aug 10, 2017 07:04
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Murmur Twin posted:On re-reading Bif, this jumped out at me: What? I'm not reading Bif as having said that at all. She's saying "that's a dead scum and man everyone must want the scum team dead if they were overkilled"
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Aug 10, 2017 07:04
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TMMadman posted:But I still don't understand why you would even think you "could" take it seriously because it's still speculation from someone who can't know the setup because he's town. well we're still a long way from lunching him so he could have some last minute claims and poo poo before he goes, in that scenario. We'd see when we get there. I'm just really extra curious about seeing if he's scum though. Murmur Twin posted:On re-reading Bif, this jumped out at me: A - I won't even fault you for fishing with this one cause I've made it super obvious. Vengeance is my very being. B - This one though, I do find very suss. C - nope not aware
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Aug 10, 2017 07:04
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What if Ecco was killed by her own faction? 
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Aug 10, 2017 07:06
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What if Anidav updated his resumé?
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Aug 10, 2017 07:06
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Birdstrike posted:hi have you played mafia? Maybe I'm just being cranky cause it's getting late now and I'm probably going to have to go to sleep before finishing my second pass. Especially since I decided to argue a bit with Bif and you. And that's the thing that bothers me because even though I do tend to post a lot, there are also times when I don't or can't post for a while so it's not an usual thing. And while it did start as scum cover, I feel like it should be established by now that it happens to me regardless of alignment. Now I could understand it more if I've been making excuses for several game days in a row, but this is D1 in a big game and I often start slow in big games.
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Aug 10, 2017 07:06
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Murmur Twin posted:But, similarly, if there's any time for acting like you're absolutely certain that you know who the right person to lynch is, it's not on bloody d1 either. I'm certain of who I want to lunch most. I have certainly not failed to look at and case and consider other people. But among all those people who I also feel unsure about, I feel more sure about Hats, and I feel sure that Hats would be the most potentially valuable to flip. It would be far more foolish imo to vote someone other than Hats.
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Aug 10, 2017 07:08
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oh, TMM - one other thing I really wanna find out from lunching Hats is whether or not the people who just don't get me on this case need to be looked at with extra scrutiny for potentially backing up a scumbro. Cause even if they don't agree with my case, it seems really weird to be backing Hats up like he's all townie or some poo poo, when almost all he's done is talk about his n0 thing.
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Aug 10, 2017 07:15
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something else I'm thinking about Captain Foo Why Vote? L O T S of fun but low-content posts. Why Not Vote? I played one game where he was scum, very content heavy and not that fun. It was like a personality switch. Right now I'm leaning code:
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Aug 10, 2017 07:16
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Bifauxnen posted:oh, TMM - one other thing I really wanna find out from lunching Hats is whether or not the people who just don't get me on this case need to be looked at with extra scrutiny for potentially backing up a scumbro. Cause even if they don't agree with my case, it seems really weird to be backing Hats up like he's all townie or some poo poo, when almost all he's done is talk about his n0 thing. what if he's Town?
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Aug 10, 2017 07:16
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Birdstrike posted:what if he's Town? but what if
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Aug 10, 2017 07:17
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Birdstrike posted:what if he's Town? just in case that was a serious question though: I will sit back and enjoy watching scum try and line me up as a potential lunch target next
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Aug 10, 2017 07:19
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Captain Foo posted:is eightbux asking too many questions? He's not asking too many questions necessarily, but he is asking too many questions for how many non-question posts/reads he's making, if that makes sense. For Day 1 it's a little scummy, if it keeps going into later days it'll be progressively scummier.
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Aug 10, 2017 07:23
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Birdstrike posted:Okay I'll bite Well, one, that's hurtful. Two, I have results showing that guy is town. Three, if they're that bad why aren't you voting them?
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Aug 10, 2017 07:25
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Bifauxnen posted:I noticed that later and thought that might have been what you meant, but it does still seem like a stretch to me, especially since you mentioned other scum factions: A - I'm Vengeance-Aligned. I don't have any way to kill anyone. The fact that you didn't just answer that straight-up answer that doesn't look that great to me. B - Why do you find it very suss? You said that Hats is shady for speculating that there were other scum factions because your first reaction was that Vengeance did it. I'm saying that I think it's weird for that to be your first thought if you're in that alignment (since with no NK or scumdoc my first thought was "oh, Vengeance must be town" C - Now that you are, how (if at all) does that affect your read on Hats?
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Aug 10, 2017 07:25
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Mithross posted:Well, one, that's hurtful. because of my... love! 
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Aug 10, 2017 07:26
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Bifauxnen posted:just in case that was a serious question though: I will sit back and enjoy watching scum try and line me up as a potential lunch target next Wow, you're really going Anidav-hard on Hats
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Aug 10, 2017 07:26
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