|
boviscopophobic posted:Here you go. I don't have to point out where the two free fly events are because it's pretty clear from the graph. Ah cool, thanks dude. I am forever astonished by how "clean" these graphs look. I don't understand how they are able to have such a consistent hourly rate of new signups. Usually you see variation due to day/night cycles at least. Chalks fucked around with this message at 08:35 on Apr 20, 2016 |
#
?
Apr 20, 2016 08:33
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 9, 2024 08:51 |
|
|
D_Smart posted:**BREAKING NEWS LIVE FROM BEHIND ENEMY LINES** We are truly living in the future....  But honestly, did anyone who knows anything (or nothing, depening on your view) believe that all the features they spewd out could actually be done, on time and on budget?
|
|
#
?
Apr 20, 2016 08:33
|
|
|
boviscopophobic posted:Here you go. I don't have to point out where the two free fly events are because it's pretty clear from the graph. Can you make a multi chart with funding on the right hand y-axis? It would be interesting to see how free flight affects their funding. I imagine minuscule bumps each FF week, follow by a swift return to poo poo mountain.
|
|
#
?
Apr 20, 2016 08:34
|
|
|
And now for something completely different
|
|
#
?
Apr 20, 2016 08:36
|
|
|
Chalks posted:Ah cool, thanks dude. There's a 24-hour cycle and weekends might also have some effect. Both effects are small relative to the vertical scale of that graph, but you can see hints of the 24-hour ripple. Broadly speaking, though, signups are fairly consistent from day to day, and the same is true of funding and fleet numbers. Is that suspicious? Possibly, but I don't have enough context to say one way or the other.
|
|
#
?
Apr 20, 2016 08:38
|
|
|
Crazy_BlackParrot posted:And now for something completely different This made me laugh after 500 posts of nothing
|
|
#
?
Apr 20, 2016 08:44
|
|
|
Truga posted:Hello! My name is Truga and I'm an original backer. And you're just plain stupid stupid. 
|
|
#
?
Apr 20, 2016 08:50
|
|
|
So let me talk about alphas and betas and such, even though I clearly don't understand game development. I took part in the Battleborn alpha, since I'm a console-gaming heathen. They did the alpha this winter; I had to tell them what system I was using and maybe a couple other things, and I got approved. This is from Gearbox, the same studio behind the Borderlands games. Battleborn is like a MOBA/FPS hybrid where you pick a character, play a game and pick your skills as you progress. There were multiple PvP modes and a PvE story mode. The alpha didn't look polished, but you could tell there was a complete game in there. A dozen or so very unique characters with unique skills that made sense according to their designs. PvP modes, a basic story mission, etc. Since it's now in open beta, I don't feel like anything I've said violates the NDA I had to accept to play it. The open beta started a week or so ago, don't know if it's still going on. It has more functional characters, more PvP modes, more story missions. Everything looks much more fleshed out, and I have no problem believing they'll meet their early May shipping date. Everything I played told me they had a focused design and mechanic, and their engine could handle it. It's not my cup of tea. I likely won't buy it on release because it's just not the type of game I could see myself sinking hundreds of hours into. That being said, it's clearly made by competent people who had a definite vision of what they wanted to produce, and it sure seems like they lived up to their own expectations. Anyone who has ever wanted a MOBA/FPS game should buy it, because that's definitely what it is. Compare that to the flaming poo poo-filled tire fire of SC's PTU. A game designer with literal decades of experience was unable to successfully fly a ship. The SC community didn't say "hey, maybe this isn't the right kind of game for you, that's okay", they said "gently caress YOU WITH A SPIKED FLAMING DILDO, THIS GAME IS OUR NEW GOD AND YOU MUST BE BURNED AS A SACRIFICE TO IT". Contrast: If I were to tweet the Gearbox head dude to tell him that I think his new game is well-done but not my thing, he would either ignore it or say "that's OK, and thanks for the feedback". If I were to do a free-fly week for SC and tweet "I don't think this is an actual playable game right now and it never will be after $110M and four years of development", I'd probably have dozens of death threats sent directly to my house. gently caress all of these people, they deserve to be miserable.
|
|
#
?
Apr 20, 2016 08:51
|
|
|
Ravachol posted:Can you make a multi chart with funding on the right hand y-axis? It would be interesting to see how free flight affects their funding. I imagine minuscule bumps each FF week, follow by a swift return to poo poo mountain. Free fly weeks have almost no effect on funding. The only thing that makes a difference is sales (of ships, starmaps, or other bric-a-brac, tchotchkes, and gewgaws).  You can see the bump from the Esperia Vanduul Blade, a smaller subsequent bump from whatever Starfarer thing, and a tiny bump from their current military ship sale.
|
|
#
?
Apr 20, 2016 08:52
|
|
|
Chalks posted:Ah cool, thanks dude. Spoilers: Ben sat down in his extra-wide gaming chair Chris had bought him, sighing with satisfaction as the hydraulic shaft groaned and hissed under his weight. Shirtless, he bathed in the pallid light of his 22 inch monitor - all he can afford after offering half of his paycheck as tribute to Christ Roberts in return for the blessing of jpeg spaceships more talented people had drawn from his half-baked ideas. Excogitation is ecstasy, after all. Especially when the final products have been brought into being on the backs of laborers more talented than you, like the Pharaohs of old. Hungry for self-affirmation, his jaundiced eyes flickered over the latest metrics; each new signup was a data point on a clear trajectory toward giving his life purpose. But suddenly, without warning, the signups ceased. The latest data indicated a sharp decline in new Citizens; an immediate threat to his savior's quest for apotheosis. "This can't be!" he thought to himself. Dumbfounded, he stared blankly for a moment before his heavy eyelids began tumbling clumsily over his swollen gaze. "I must FIX this..." As if on their own, his hands began following the ritual he'd performed countless times before. Incognito. Google. New account. Password. RSI. New account. Password. Endlessly his fingers tumbled over the keys of his HP branded membrane keyboard, the soft thuds of each keystroke bringing him closer to vindication - to salvation Ravachol fucked around with this message at 09:03 on Apr 20, 2016 |
|
#
?
Apr 20, 2016 08:56
|
|
|
boviscopophobic posted:Free fly weeks have almost no effect on funding. The only thing that makes a difference is sales (of ships, starmaps, or other bric-a-brac, tchotchkes, and gewgaws). This is actually a great graph. A+ for effort. This is really something CIG should be paying attention to. That and new signups vs. pledges - it'd be interesting to know their conversion rate. It's likely fairly low, which explains the Blade sale. "Hey, we had some dumbass leak this asset 6 months ago but for some reason it isn't complete but it looks cool so let's just release it and slap a $250 price tag on it!" "WOW SANDI YOURE A JENIUS"
|
|
#
?
Apr 20, 2016 09:00
|
|
|
I never put money towards this game, and I have never been on Kickstarter because it looks stupid, but I feel after following this trainwreck of a game via this thread I can push this figurative gigantic weight off of my chest here goes "star citizen is bad" thank you for reading o7
|
|
#
?
Apr 20, 2016 09:00
|
|
|
orcinus posted:No one wants to touch the poop. CIG poop needs a sealed MOPP suit with a LONG rear end snorkel.
|
|
#
?
Apr 20, 2016 09:01
|
|
|
Daztek posted:This made me laugh after 500 posts of nothing I helped and am glad of it
|
|
#
?
Apr 20, 2016 09:01
|
|
|
boviscopophobic posted:Originally I wanted to try to figure out how many purchases were coming from whales versus "ordinary" backers, so I set up some polling of the funds/fleet/"fans" at finer than 1 hour intervals (the idea being that fewer purchases would be lumped into each data point, thus easier to disambiguate). Unfortunately this plan was made before I understood how the tracker was affected by melts, non-purchasing citizens, non-ship funding sources, the different update schedules for fleet counts and citizen counts, etc. so the original goal ended up being impossible. However, the current data is good enough to see when a large transaction comes in and to estimate trends. Thank you for the answer, really interesting stuff. What time interval are you using for this and when did you start? Are you planning to keep everything you've gathered private? I am also really curious about those other factors you mentioned (melts, non-ship, etc): is there a place these are written in detail or is communal knowledge/guesswork? How did you come to understand the specifics? full disclosure: I'm not Derek's analyst but I have a huge data boner for understanding the fund tracking model. Appreciate anything you can share
|
|
#
?
Apr 20, 2016 09:01
|
|
|
Truga posted:I guess running a scam leaves you more time with dealing with appearances, as opposed to wasting it on making the game? Well if we're being honest, they're birds of a feather. Derek's games are reeking piles of crap (unless you read the forthcoming manual! If you don't you're too stupid to recognize his brilliance!) and Crobert's latest endeavor is a reeking pile of crap being shoveled to poo poo-eating Shitizens one shovelful at a time (it's only Alpha! How DARE you question his vision!)
|
|
#
?
Apr 20, 2016 09:08
|
|
|
when u think about it we are all in a bad video game
|
|
#
?
Apr 20, 2016 09:11
|
|
|
Ostentatious posted:when u think about it we are all in a bad video game From the way I understand it, I'm white so I'm playing FFXIV while everyone else is playing any installment of Dark Souls.
|
|
#
?
Apr 20, 2016 09:14
|
|
|
EightAce posted:The thing is , it isn't fraud ...........in the traditional sense I would argue it is rather fraudulent AT THIS POINT. I will credit crobbers with the basic incompetence to promise so much more than he can deliver . But, in an ethical business environment, you need to be able to look at a project, realize you failed, and find a way to make it up to any affected investors. Like I said before, ethics is knowing the difference between what you have the right to do and what is right to do.
|
|
#
?
Apr 20, 2016 09:19
|
|
|
Solarin posted:I'm starting to believe that CIG will address (not actually keep since there's no game) this promise by removing the whole premise of a player driven economy. No trade of any kind between players, no possibility of a fluid currency value. Exactly what everybody is expecting right?? That's always been Chris' plan from Day 1, for every player there will be 9 NPCs which dilute any impact you can have on the economy while simultaneously players will be able to influence the economy by controlling resour gently caress it
|
|
#
?
Apr 20, 2016 09:23
|
|
|
Kotaku just dancing around the edges of calling bullshit on the whole thing here.. Come on for fucks sake - don't drop little hints. Do your loving job and tell people to stop wasting their money http://www.kotaku.co.uk/2016/04/13/try-monstrously-ambitious-space-sim-star-citizen-free-for-a-week
|
|
#
?
Apr 20, 2016 09:25
|
|
|
I was hoping hulk hogan's penis would have killed kotaku as well by now but here we are
|
|
#
?
Apr 20, 2016 09:27
|
|
|
boviscopophobic posted:Free fly weeks have almost no effect on funding. The only thing that makes a difference is sales (of ships, starmaps, or other bric-a-brac, tchotchkes, and gewgaws). It looks like both graphs have a minimum slope value that it refuses to go under, which is really weird. How spaced apart are the data points? If they're fairly close together can you subtract a constant slope from each graph until at least one section is at 0 slope? I want to see if that would look more realistic. Or throw the raw data up somewhere if you don't wanna waste even more or your time.
|
|
#
?
Apr 20, 2016 09:29
|
|
|
skaboomizzy posted:My three favorite threads right now are this one, the GOP primary thread, and the one about a nearly dead third-rate wrestling promotion possibly being taken over by literal Nazis. w-what?
|
|
#
?
Apr 20, 2016 09:32
|
|
|
Ostentatious posted:I was hoping hulk hogan's penis would have killed kotaku as well by now but here we are Don't give Croberts ideas. He'll add procedural Wrestler Dongs as a stretch goal
|
|
#
?
Apr 20, 2016 09:33
|
|
|
Toops posted:Nice. Somebody archived my posts before the fascist mods delorted them. But before my posts. 
|
|
#
?
Apr 20, 2016 09:33
|
|
|
smellmycheese posted:Kotaku just dancing around the edges of calling bullshit on the whole thing here.. Come on for fucks sake - don't drop little hints. Do your loving job and tell people to stop wasting their money
|
|
#
?
Apr 20, 2016 09:35
|
|
|
Solarin posted:Thank you for the answer, really interesting stuff. What time interval are you using for this and when did you start? Are you planning to keep everything you've gathered private? The interval is less than 10 minutes but more than 1. I'll probably eventually leak the data somewhere but I don't have any immediate plans to do so. I only started a few months ago, unfortunately, so I'm missing a lot of interesting stuff in the historical record. For the other items, it's conjecture/guesswork based on looking at the data and relying on the assumption that the funding tracker is basically accurate -- if it's not, then of course anything goes. Fleet counts decrease by small amounts but funding/fan counts don't (except for the recent completionist kerfluffle), so the cause must be melts. Funding spikes happen without fleet spikes but Reddit says a star map sale is going on, and the funding increments are consistent with star map pricing, so non-ship revenues must be included in the tracker. Citizen counts spike during free fly weeks but revenue and fleet counts don't, so the citizen count must include non-paying individuals (this was also known from folklore). Funding increments are mostly in whole dollars but sometimes aren't, so there must be some kind of currency conversion issues. You get the idea.
|
|
#
?
Apr 20, 2016 09:36
|
|
|
Beet Wagon posted:I left that on my whiteboard overnight and when my boss came in to say good morning he was super loving confused. It was rad. Dude, you (and Kayak) are rad.
|
|
#
?
Apr 20, 2016 09:37
|
|
|
Mirificus posted:
Am I a bad bad goon for laughing at that trailer? Because, if you say yes, I will feel so much grief (tripling every second) until I feel empty inside, dead.
|
|
#
?
Apr 20, 2016 09:42
|
|
|
spacetoaster posted:Ok, I've gotten my tools out now. What should I do first? Lost it at the antifungal powder and am still laughing.
|
|
#
?
Apr 20, 2016 09:47
|
|
|
XK posted:This really is the trick to making fries. Every time I tried to make fries from a freshly cut potato, they always ended up weird. First trick is you need to rinse them very well after cutting. The second trick is the two stage cooking. Do them first at a lower temperature to cook them through, then let them sit for a little while, or even freeze them for later. Then, do them at a high temperature, just before serving, to finish them and make them nice and crispy. This food thread is the best. And this advice should be on every page!
|
|
#
?
Apr 20, 2016 09:48
|
|
|
Zo posted:It looks like both graphs have a minimum slope value that it refuses to go under, which is really weird. How spaced apart are the data points? If they're fairly close together can you subtract a constant slope from each graph until at least one section is at 0 slope? I want to see if that would look more realistic. Or throw the raw data up somewhere if you don't wanna waste even more or your time. The minimum slope is presumably the natural rate of fans/funds accretion in the absence of external stimuli. My impression is that those natural rates seem to decay rather slowly on a timescale of weeks to months. Looking at a smoothed rate plot might or might not help your intuition -- note the clear presence of a 24-hour cycle. 
|
|
#
?
Apr 20, 2016 10:02
|
|
|
boviscopophobic posted:Funding increments are mostly in whole dollars but sometimes aren't, so there must be some kind of currency conversion issues. You get the idea. I wonder if that funding tracker includes the VAT in the totals. (of course it does)
|
|
#
?
Apr 20, 2016 10:09
|
|
|
Chalks posted:Lol, I love it. Starting a thread in order to have an argument about something is forbidden. Heaven forbid you say anything that anybody disagrees with otherwise you're automatically get your thread closed if anyone argues with you. For added hilarity: quoting CRobber apparently counts as creating a sensationalist thread title to “bait discussion”, which is somehow bad, whereas creating a thread to discuss things CRobber said on 10ftC is somehow good. And then there are some that like to claim that any old amateur or fan can be a moderator and that you don't need professional CS/CR staff. 
|
|
#
?
Apr 20, 2016 10:10
|
|
|
Tippis posted:For added hilarity: quoting CRobber apparently counts as creating a sensationalist thread title to “bait discussion”, which is somehow bad, whereas creating a thread to discuss things CRobber said on 10ftC is somehow good. It's not true if it's not coming directly from Crobber, but don't quote him because that's baiting.
|
|
#
?
Apr 20, 2016 10:20
|
|
|
|
|
#
?
Apr 20, 2016 10:22
|
|
|
Yes.
|
|
#
?
Apr 20, 2016 10:26
|
|
|
tastychicken posted:This food thread is the best. And this advice should be on every page! A few weeks ago on the BBC there was a program with a food scientist and Marcus Waring (michelin star chef) and they there was a segment about the perfect french fry. The method was to thick cut french fries, then seal them in sous vie bag filled with brine and cook them, then to transfer them to the deep fat fryer to crisp them.
|
|
#
?
Apr 20, 2016 10:48
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 9, 2024 08:51 |
|
|
boviscopophobic posted:The minimum slope is presumably the natural rate of fans/funds accretion in the absence of external stimuli. My impression is that those natural rates seem to decay rather slowly on a timescale of weeks to months. Looking at a smoothed rate plot might or might not help your intuition -- note the clear presence of a 24-hour cycle. Oh thanks for those graphs. I guess without knowing the smoothing it's hard to tell, but for something like SC where there is no actual product (effectively anyway) I'm surprised that they'd have such a high constant minimum rate. My intuition was that it would, through sheer probability, hit near zero during at least some stretches of the low points. I guess nerds in Europe and Australia prevent that.
|
|
#
?
Apr 20, 2016 10:51
|
|