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3peat
May 6, 2010

Phlegmish posted:

Has it been translated in French? I might try to pick it up, then. I've been reading a lot of French lately. No hot high school teachers to impress, but since I started working in Brussels I have a lot of francophone colleagues and I'd like to know what the hell they're talking about more than 50% of the time.

Apparently yes, under the name "Madame T."

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Lead out in cuffs
Sep 18, 2012

"That's right. We've evolved."

"I can see that. Cool mutations."




Leo Showers posted:

That's definitely true. My observation is that it looks like it's suffered a pretty large explosion, as opposed to be peppered by cannon fire for example.

A reminder that the rebels are fielding main battle tanks, which are, among other things, very good at ripping lightly-armoured APCs to shreds.

suck my woke dick
Oct 10, 2012

:siren:I CANNOT EJACULATE WITHOUT SEEING NATIVE AMERICANS BRUTALISED!:siren:

Put this cum-loving slave on ignore immediately!

Baronjutter posted:

Well I know from the Czechs I've known that there's a real attitude that they're CENTRAL european, not eastern european. They were unfairly placed behind the iron curtain but they are a cultured and scientific people and don't you dare lump them in with those drunken barbarians in the east.

Hahaha, this is so true even in scientific literature. If a Czech biologist writes a book, it will be called the "The [animal/plant group] of Central and Eastern Europe". The map in the intro will call a bunch of, uh, other Eastern European countries Eastern Europe and will locate the Czech Republic in Central Europe but exclude parts of Western Germany from that label :laffo:.

Sergiu64
May 21, 2014

Updated map:

Baronjutter
Dec 31, 2007

"Tiny Trains"

Quite a large cut-off area west of the plane crash. Dudes in the bottom right seem hosed and cut off too though.

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

Baronjutter posted:

Quite a large cut-off area west of the plane crash. Dudes in the bottom right seem hosed and cut off too though.

They are the ones getting fired on by Russian Army artillery.

The isolation of Donetsk is probably optimistic --- still lots of fighting over the south transport node...

Sergiu64
May 21, 2014

Baronjutter posted:

Quite a large cut-off area west of the plane crash. Dudes in the bottom right seem hosed and cut off too though.

According to this: https://twitter.com/murderotica_/status/495168766645653504 they're finally being withdrawn deeper into Ukrainian territory and away from Russian artillery.

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

Sergiu64 posted:

According to this: https://twitter.com/murderotica_/status/495168766645653504 they're finally being withdrawn deeper into Ukrainian territory and away from Russian artillery.

Families of servicemen are not convinced that's the case :(

suck my woke dick
Oct 10, 2012

:siren:I CANNOT EJACULATE WITHOUT SEEING NATIVE AMERICANS BRUTALISED!:siren:

Put this cum-loving slave on ignore immediately!

Sergiu64 posted:

According to this: https://twitter.com/murderotica_/status/495168766645653504 they're finally being withdrawn deeper into Ukrainian territory and away from Russian artillery.

If this were any country but Russia (and other nuclear powers except North Korea) I'd say shoot back.

fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013

The Gubarev's assistant who was killed today used to dress up as a NKVD officer and publicly "execute" the big figures in Russian opposition (plus Gorby):



Please, Uncle Dugin, send more goony clowns to the frontlines

Phlegmish
Jul 2, 2011



Good riddance.

Present
Oct 28, 2011

by Shine
For anyone reading this thread, you may be wondering what exactly the average Russian believes is happening in this conflict. Well, I've been watching their news and political talk shows, and reading their newspapers, so I'm going to tell you.

Maidan was financed and curated by the West. Western Powers funneled money, weapons and other aid to Ukrainian Nazis, and encouraged them to go hog wild. Specifically, Ukrainian Nazis believe that everything about Ukraine's Soviet past is a terrible thing that must be destroyed or otherwise stamped out, including Ukraine's relations with Russia and the ethnic Russians living in Ukraine. During Maidan, there was ethnic cleansing happening all over the western part of Ukraine. Ukrainian Nazis were killing ethnic Russians. Dragging them out of their homes and executing them right in the street. The Maidan protesters? All Nazis, all hundreds of thousands of them.

Yanukovich was a good president, a people's president, and the evidence of his corruption is completely fabricated by the Western Powers, which in fact currently control all of Ukraine. The current Ukrainian President and his entourage are all Western puppets.

While Maidan is happening and Nazis are murdering ethnic Russians in Western Ukraine, the eastern and southern regions of the country start to wake up. Crimean citizens band together to prevent ethnic cleansing of their peninsula. They go and buy uniforms and arms at military surplus stores and take over Crimea. There's then a completely legit and transparent referendum where the vast majority people vote to join Russia. Russia gracefully accepts because it wants to prevent Ukraine from ethnically cleansing Crimea.

Meanwhile, there's a similar movement in eastern Ukraine. Patriots band together and also source uniforms, guns, tanks and take over territory to make sure they don't get ethnically cleansed by the tide of Ukrainian Nazis sweeping closer and closer. At this point there's the Ukrainian army, who are fighting the eastern patriots. The Ukrainian army has no regard for civilian casualties and fires into civilians if it serves them to, and uses human shields. Ukrainian soldiers rape their female prisoners, torture and execute the captured patriots, confiscate people's property on a whim, and so on, so fourth. The army is followed by Nazi squads. These Nazi squads are ethnically cleansing the area the Ukrainian army conquers. Probably the most evil thing the Ukrainians do during their campaign is crucifying a little Russian boy on a wooden plank. A teary eyed refugee tells this story on the news, barely holding back her sobbing. The Ukrainian army is also firing over the border into Russian territory using artillery. There have been many casualties on the Russian side, but Russia is not firing back, not wishing to responding to the provocations.

There are several versions of what happened to the Malaysian Airlines plane. One is Ukrainian army trying to shoot down Putin's plane but getting the wrong plane. Another is Ukrainians shooting it down to frame Russia and the plucky separatists. Whatever actually happened, it was the Western powers that orchestrated the whole thing. There's no way the separatists could have shot it down because they either didn't have any BUKs or because there was nothing to gain by shooting a passenger liner down or because they couldn't have shot it down because it had some kind of device identifying it as a non-military plane and therefore the BUK wouldn't have been able to lock on it in the first place.

All of the evidence that Ukraine, USA and EU bring forward of Russia destabilizing Ukraine, funneling weapons, people, money into the country, and basically of any Russian involvement is a complete and total fabrication on the part of the Western Powers and their puppet Ukrainian state.

At this point Ukraine is a basically a a roving horde of bloodthirsty nazis controlled by the President and his entourage, who are in turn controlled by the Western Powers. Ultimately, the West wants to destroy Russia. But to legitimize their actions, the West wants to make it seem like Russia is the aggressor. So they hope to use the ethnic cleansing and the attacks on Russian territory to bait Russia into trying to save the ethnic Russian population of Ukraine. Once Russian troops cross the border into Ukraine to prevent this genocide, the West will have their casus belli to attack and destroy Russia. The current sanctions are part of the grand strategy to weaken and ultimately destroy Russia, which is currently the last bastion of freedom and democracy and justice left in the world. This is why the evil/decadent/pro-gay/nazi West needs to wipe it off the map.

This is what the the average Russian believes is happening right now.

Thanks for reading.

Lucy Heartfilia
May 31, 2012


Is there at least some kind of awareness that not only the West is using propaganda? This poo poo is so much more blatant and obvious than Western propaganda...

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




Pretty legitimate summary, if you ask me. In fact, it is a very coherent, with no pun intended, description of separatists-favouring sentiment.

:smith:

Edit:

Lucy Heartfilia posted:

Is there at least some kind of awareness that not only the West is using propaganda?
Yes, amongst well educated minority mostly. Typically, from my recent experience, most of them will go into "both sides use propaganda" and refuse to discuss the matter at all, understandably so.

cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 19:34 on Aug 1, 2014

suck my woke dick
Oct 10, 2012

:siren:I CANNOT EJACULATE WITHOUT SEEING NATIVE AMERICANS BRUTALISED!:siren:

Put this cum-loving slave on ignore immediately!

Lucy Heartfilia posted:

Is there at least some kind of awareness that not only the West is using propaganda? This poo poo is so much more blatant and obvious than Western propaganda...

Doesn't Russian propaganda have the advantage that unlike in :godwinning:Western propaganda:godwinning:, everything instead of just half of it is wrong? :v:

fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013

Lucy Heartfilia posted:

Is there at least some kind of awareness that not only the West is using propaganda? This poo poo is so much more blatant and obvious than Western propaganda...

My 80-year old grandpa who believes in the global Jewish conspiracy and has a copy of Zion Elders Protocols on his shelf says that our TV is full of poo poo and Ukraine has their own truth. He gives me hope :unsmith: I'd say a lot of people know that most of Kremlin-sanctioned media is bullshit, but they play along because they enjoy being the fear-inspiring Hollywood villains with nukes on the ready.

Present
Oct 28, 2011

by Shine
It's really blatant because Russians are so isolated.

To illustrate, I live in Canada. I can log on the internet on my computer and read news in English originating from almost every country in the world. I can stream live news on my computer, I can order international newspapers, or read them at the library. All in English.

The average Russian citizen lives in a small town or village in the middle of nowhere. He doesn't have a computer, and even if he did, he doesn't speak English or any other languages so he's not going to get any outside information. His source of news is his 20 year old TV with only Russian channels, his radio, and the Russian newspapers he buys.

So since there's no real competition to the state sponsored propaganda, they can really dial it up. What few dissidents are labeled as unpatriotic traitors, same as during the US wars in Iraq/Afganistan.

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009
Also because popular Russian news sites with alternative viewpoints
either get taken over by Kremlin $$, or just plain banned --- they are even
having their ISPs block some Ukrainian news sites. And of course today their new
blogger registration law starts.

Edit:
The article title is "Dispersal of rally 'Ukraine we are with you'".

Text is now:

quote:

Material removed by request of Roskomnadzor on July 29th, 2014.
Reason: existence of signs of misuse of freedom of the press".
The reason is the bit the screenshot taker underlined in red.


OddObserver fucked around with this message at 20:19 on Aug 1, 2014

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




MeLKoR posted:

I don't speak Russian so I have no idea about accents or anything. Having said this, the guy on the ground has no visible wounds, is not beaten on screen and the questionnaire comes off as "Why you don't like Russia? Russia is great! Have we mentioned we're Russians? Next we're gonna burn you alive like we did those guys over there [that we don't see either]".

Then again, I got the same "nobody can possibly be this stupid" feeling when the first intercepted calls came up on the day of the plane shooting and welp.
Main interrogator has thick Ukrainian accent but is always helped by a translator. Out of 6 interrogators total, 4 speak Ukrainian themselves, of them 3 seem to be natives, one not determinable, for me at least.

Next two paragraphs are mostly chronological description of things talked that serve no purpose, in my opinion, for intelligence of separatists. Those things were asked too and there is nothing new about them - from, when, why, how many, chain of command and other usual questions one would ask from captive enemy soldier.

Guy is constantly being shamed and mocked about patriotism, killing for pennies, Aryanism ("pure Ukrainians"), "I will execute you if you lie", "have you offended Putin", "have you offended Russia", "could've easily killed you're all good here", "why you fight against USSR", "why you didn't fled, crud", "you would execute that grandpa who gave us water/salt/bread, put him by the wall".

That grandpa I mentioned before came here to put funeral flowers for Kyievan riffraff that came to his land to kill his people. And then he starts to tell :qq: about slaying old people and :qq: about church priests who bless Ukrainian troops. He also immediately offers to execute captive immediately and they start to talk about some mass executions in Krasnyi Liman hospital where Ukrainian troops allegedly executed wounded in doctors. Then he goes :qq: about St. George's ribbons not being favoured by Ukrainian troops any more. Also he constantly peppers his speech with "you all will die" and "you will be slain if you come to our land to slay". Then he cheers up about Ukrainian troops slaying everyone if they would break through and starts to beat guy with a stick. Then they continue together to insult him and shame him and "what are your excuses now to this".

Also video started with them telling him he will live. And ended with them reassuring grandpa that he won't.

That being said, it can easily be fabrication of either of sides for one or another purpose, if not for matching, in my opinion, photo from that livejournal page linked in initial post.

Edit: :qq: is used to denote excessive, in my opinion, sobbing.

Edit2: That livejournal page with photos is quite fancy, if you ask me. Bunch of human remnants with gore and empty Snickers wrapping - "And there he died. Snickers symbolises." Ukrainian-themed mace and sceptre in loot.

cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 20:33 on Aug 1, 2014

rockopete
Jan 19, 2005

Present posted:

It's really blatant because Russians are so isolated.

To illustrate, I live in Canada. I can log on the internet on my computer and read news in English originating from almost every country in the world. I can stream live news on my computer, I can order international newspapers, or read them at the library. All in English.

The average Russian citizen lives in a small town or village in the middle of nowhere. He doesn't have a computer, and even if he did, he doesn't speak English or any other languages so he's not going to get any outside information. His source of news is his 20 year old TV with only Russian channels, his radio, and the Russian newspapers he buys.

So since there's no real competition to the state sponsored propaganda, they can really dial it up. What few dissidents are labeled as unpatriotic traitors, same as during the US wars in Iraq/Afganistan.

This is another reason why Putin would prefer to have Ukraine either under his influence or a chaotic mess to serve as a warning to the Russian people. Fellow slavs who share a similar (and in much of their media, the same) language, the same religion, deep historical links, and many modern links with Russia--if they were to prosper outside of Russia's orbit, it would be much more difficult to hide. I don't know if it's by design, but buffer states seem to be as much about protecting against foreign ideas and ways as they are foreign armies.

rockopete fucked around with this message at 21:01 on Aug 1, 2014

rockopete
Jan 19, 2005

quote is not edit, argh

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

The Daily Beast has published my article on how the Buk Missile Launcher was tracked through rebel territory using open source information.

rockopete
Jan 19, 2005

Brown Moses posted:

The Daily Beast has published my article on how the Buk Missile Launcher was tracked through rebel territory using open source information.

Congrats and well done, you lay things out very clearly.

THE BOMBINATRIX
Jul 26, 2002

by Lowtax

Brown Moses posted:

The Daily Beast has published my article on how the Buk Missile Launcher was tracked through rebel territory using open source information.

First off, amazing work. Very well done.

Second, how long did it take you to put that together? I can't even imagine.

Lustful Man Hugs
Jul 18, 2010

fatherboxx posted:

Putin today, on opening the monument to the heroes of WWI: "Russia almost won in the First World War, but the victory was stolen by those who had betrayed the national idea and wanted power" :laffo:

What a proud soviet officer!

Is this some kind of bizarro world dolchstoss poo poo?

HUGE PUBES A PLUS
Apr 30, 2005

Brown Moses posted:

The Daily Beast has published my article on how the Buk Missile Launcher was tracked through rebel territory using open source information.

Thanks for sharing this. Very clear to follow and makes a good picture of what happened that day.

Phobophilia
Apr 26, 2008

by Hand Knit
The biggest criticism is that it's difficult to say that the Buks visible at every point are actually the same one. The white truck with the blue markings are fortunately quite distinct. But once dismounted, it's hard to identify them as the same.

Can't disagree that the rebs had some driving around.

Warbadger
Jun 17, 2006

Phobophilia posted:

The biggest criticism is that it's difficult to say that the Buks visible at every point are actually the same one. The white truck with the blue markings are fortunately quite distinct. But once dismounted, it's hard to identify them as the same.

Can't disagree that the rebs had some driving around.

It's a series of sequential sightings along a single route, between the locations that the radio intercepts indicated a Buk moved between that day. There have been no further sightings of Buks in the rebel controlled areas since the last sightings of it headed toward the border (and inside Russia), nor were there any prior to the day these images were taken and the radio intercepts indicated it was trucked in.

Basically there's no evidence whatsoever of there being multiple Buks rolling around and there is a decent amount of there only being a single vehicle.

Flaky
Feb 14, 2011
Probation
Can't post for 3 years!

Present posted:

For anyone reading this thread, you may be wondering what exactly the average Russian believes is happening in this conflict. Well, I've been watching their news and political talk shows, and reading their newspapers, so I'm going to tell you.

Maidan was financed and curated by the West. Western Powers funneled money, weapons and other aid to Ukrainian Nazis, and encouraged them to go hog wild. Specifically, Ukrainian Nazis believe that everything about Ukraine's Soviet past is a terrible thing that must be destroyed or otherwise stamped out, including Ukraine's relations with Russia and the ethnic Russians living in Ukraine. During Maidan, there was ethnic cleansing happening all over the western part of Ukraine. Ukrainian Nazis were killing ethnic Russians. Dragging them out of their homes and executing them right in the street. The Maidan protesters? All Nazis, all hundreds of thousands of them.

Yanukovich was a good president, a people's president, and the evidence of his corruption is completely fabricated by the Western Powers, which in fact currently control all of Ukraine. The current Ukrainian President and his entourage are all Western puppets.

While Maidan is happening and Nazis are murdering ethnic Russians in Western Ukraine, the eastern and southern regions of the country start to wake up. Crimean citizens band together to prevent ethnic cleansing of their peninsula. They go and buy uniforms and arms at military surplus stores and take over Crimea. There's then a completely legit and transparent referendum where the vast majority people vote to join Russia. Russia gracefully accepts because it wants to prevent Ukraine from ethnically cleansing Crimea.

Meanwhile, there's a similar movement in eastern Ukraine. Patriots band together and also source uniforms, guns, tanks and take over territory to make sure they don't get ethnically cleansed by the tide of Ukrainian Nazis sweeping closer and closer. At this point there's the Ukrainian army, who are fighting the eastern patriots. The Ukrainian army has no regard for civilian casualties and fires into civilians if it serves them to, and uses human shields. Ukrainian soldiers rape their female prisoners, torture and execute the captured patriots, confiscate people's property on a whim, and so on, so fourth. The army is followed by Nazi squads. These Nazi squads are ethnically cleansing the area the Ukrainian army conquers. Probably the most evil thing the Ukrainians do during their campaign is crucifying a little Russian boy on a wooden plank. A teary eyed refugee tells this story on the news, barely holding back her sobbing. The Ukrainian army is also firing over the border into Russian territory using artillery. There have been many casualties on the Russian side, but Russia is not firing back, not wishing to responding to the provocations.

There are several versions of what happened to the Malaysian Airlines plane. One is Ukrainian army trying to shoot down Putin's plane but getting the wrong plane. Another is Ukrainians shooting it down to frame Russia and the plucky separatists. Whatever actually happened, it was the Western powers that orchestrated the whole thing. There's no way the separatists could have shot it down because they either didn't have any BUKs or because there was nothing to gain by shooting a passenger liner down or because they couldn't have shot it down because it had some kind of device identifying it as a non-military plane and therefore the BUK wouldn't have been able to lock on it in the first place.

All of the evidence that Ukraine, USA and EU bring forward of Russia destabilizing Ukraine, funneling weapons, people, money into the country, and basically of any Russian involvement is a complete and total fabrication on the part of the Western Powers and their puppet Ukrainian state.

At this point Ukraine is a basically a a roving horde of bloodthirsty nazis controlled by the President and his entourage, who are in turn controlled by the Western Powers. Ultimately, the West wants to destroy Russia. But to legitimize their actions, the West wants to make it seem like Russia is the aggressor. So they hope to use the ethnic cleansing and the attacks on Russian territory to bait Russia into trying to save the ethnic Russian population of Ukraine. Once Russian troops cross the border into Ukraine to prevent this genocide, the West will have their casus belli to attack and destroy Russia. The current sanctions are part of the grand strategy to weaken and ultimately destroy Russia, which is currently the last bastion of freedom and democracy and justice left in the world. This is why the evil/decadent/pro-gay/nazi West needs to wipe it off the map.

This is what the the average Russian believes is happening right now.

Thanks for reading.

At the heart of the best propaganda there is always... a grain of truth.

Zudgemud
Mar 1, 2009
Grimey Drawer

Flaky posted:

At the heart of the best propaganda there is always... a grain of truth.

But one would think that it almost would be hard to see that grain when covered with a shovelfull of lies.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

Alex DeLarge posted:

First off, amazing work. Very well done.

Second, how long did it take you to put that together? I can't even imagine.

Much faster than I ever imagined, I thought nearly all those images would be next to impossible to locate, but lots of people had a go and a few of them figured it out. For the Torez image Aric Toler could make out some of the letters on the market sign, so he went through a list of possible names, figured out one was a chain of stores, and found one in Torez. He had a partial address, but got the complete address from Ukrainian court documents posted online about a fight in the store. Then with the full address he was able to find the dashboard cams of some guy in Torez who had driven around the town and posted the videos onto YouTube with the names of the roads in the description, and that showed the store and the apartment building with the black and white stripes on the corners. We then used SunCalc to figure out the time of day was about 12-12:30pm, then the Guardian, Daily Telegraph and Independent newspapers saw our work and went to Torez and were able to find witnesses to confirm it.

The Donetsk one was even harder, but because we had a good idea of the route someone just used Google Street View to look out for the unusual post visible in the picture, and found the spot. It's a rare example where even the trees foliage matches, so that's a very solid match even with limited visible data.

It's worth noting in both these examples the images were claimed to be from Snizhne, so it was a case of figuring out where to look first as well. The Arms Control Wonk Podcast had an episode dedicated to all of that if you want to learn more about it.

HUGE PUBES A PLUS
Apr 30, 2005

Zhirinovsky has requested to be called up for military service.

quote:

Leader of the Liberal Democratic Party Vladimir Zhirinovsky asked Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu summon him for military training. About this radio station , "Russian news service" .

Zhirinovsky posted:

"I have a military specialty -" special propaganda ". I am happy that I have taught this profession 50 years ago. I asked the Minister of Defense personally to all the LDPR faction, 56 deputies, included in the reserve and all of us immediately call for fees, including me, "- said Zhirinovsky.

Earlier it was reported that on the territory of all Russian military districts hold in August - October, drills and exercises with an appeal to military reserve.

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009
Apparently Russian Federation's government went on a big censorship spree
of online mentions of "March for Federalization of Siberia":

HUGE PUBES A PLUS
Apr 30, 2005

OddObserver posted:

Apparently Russian Federation's government went on a big censorship spree
of online mentions of "March for Federalization of Siberia":



Same thing happened to a similar article on Charter 97. The problem is Charter 97 isn't in Russia, but they're being censored anyway.

http://charter97.org/ru/news/2014/8/2/109466/

According to this article, Russia has been fighting inside Ukrainian borders for some time, but the full invasion hasn't happened yet.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/08/01/russia-s-military-is-already-in-east-ukraine-will-there-be-a-full-scale-invasion.html

quote:


The troops, the tanks, and the artillery is in place. The shelling has begun. Is this just another skirmish? Or something much, much bigger?
Right now Russia is moving troops, armor, and advanced antiaircraft missiles toward the border with Ukraine. In the last 48 hours, dozens of videos have been uploaded to social-media sites that show Russian armor very close to the border, many of them confirmed to be within mere kilometers of Ukraine.

On Thursday, my team at The Interpreter definitively geolocated Russian armor only 2,000 meters (and closing) from the border and a Buk, the same type of missile that likely took down Malaysia Airlines Flight 17, only a few hours from being within range of Ukraine’s air force. Columns of tanks, marked with the same painted numbers and flat, pale-green paint we’ve seen in Ukraine since (at least) June 20th, were spotted moving en masse toward a key border crossing. Some Ukrainian journalists are reporting that at least some of this armor has already crossed the border.

Russia’s helicopters held ground-fire exercises Friday on the border between Russia’s Rostov region and Ukraine’s Donetsk region. The head of
Russia’s airborne units, which played a critical role in the conquering of Crimea, has pledged to expand operations beyond the boundaries of Russia (tanks marked with the insignia of Russian Airborne forces were captured by Ukrainian troops just yesterday). The Ukrainian government now says that its military has detected even more advanced antiaircraft batteries lined up on its border.

There is now significant evidence that Russia is openly supporting the separatists militarily and many experts now believe that Russia could invade and beat back the Ukrainian anti-terror operation.

An open war between Ukraine and Russia may have already begun. In the last 24 hours, there are reports of cross-border shelling in new locations and 17 new Grad rocket batteries digging in on the Russian side of the border, but within range of the Ukrainian military’s front lines. This is even more concerning when it is put into context. In the last two days, two different Ukrainian military convoys have been destroyed by Grad rockets south of the MH17 crash site, in Shakhtyorsk and near Torez. Russian paratroopers have even taken pictures with the bodies of the Ukrainian soldiers and have posted them to social networks (this isn’t the only time Russian soldiers have posted pictures from inside Ukraine, which has caused the Russian government to discuss banning their soldiers from posting to social media).

Why is there fighting near the MH17 crash site? It’s not a coincidence.

Russian Grad rockets are ripping apart Ukraine's front lines. Russian tanks and armored vehicles appear to be streaming across the border, providing the separatists with greater firepower with each passing day. So far, Russia hasn’t needed to invade in order to invade.

Strong evidence suggests that a Russian-supplied and crewed Buk antiaircraft missile shot down MH17. The missile was deployed to this area in order to defend the road that links the separatists’ positions to each other and to Russia. These towns are so vital to the Russian-backed insurgents that the separatists decided to place their most advanced SAMs in the area to defend against Ukraine’s air force. This also means that the town has become one of the primary goals for both the separatists and the Ukrainian military.

How important is this area to the separatists? Earlier this week a large convoy was spotted moving toward the town. The video of the convoy, labeled “troops from Russia,” shows a large group of heavy armor—mostly BMPs, towed artillery and antiaircraft guns, troops transports… and two Strela-10 advanced antiaircraft systems. All of the vehicles have uniform paint configurations, but those paint configurations don’t match the Ukrainian military’s. These weapons very likely came from Russia.

Now, a series of videos reportedly show large amounts of Russian armor and helicopters staged right on Ukraine’s border. While we have not definitively located the video, in one video tanks can be seen crossing a pontoon bridge into Ukraine. In multiple areas in this region, Ukraine is divided from Russia by a river. The tanks in this video are either crossing into Ukraine or they are training to do so.

Will Russia outright invade Ukraine this weekend? Maybe. But do they need to? There is conclusive proof that Russia has been shelling Ukraine since at least July 16th, the day before MH17 was shot down. Russian Grad rockets are ripping apart Ukraine’s front lines. Russian tanks and armored vehicles appear to be streaming across the border, providing the separatists with greater firepower with each passing day. So far, Russia hasn’t needed to invade in order to invade. But they finally have enough firepower in place that they could if they want to.

Is this just saber rattling? It’s possible. Russia has been poised to invade Ukraine on multiple occasions and it has not happened yet. But in the weeks before and after the downing of MH17, thousands of “tourists” driving tanks and armored vehicles that appear to be from Russian military stockpiles have crossed the border and joined the fight against the fledgling Ukrainian government. Even if Russia does not formally invade, how much of this equipment will not-so-quietly slip across the border and reinforce an insurgency which has already cost so many civilian lives?

Washington, it seems, may be getting the picture. USA Today reports that according to a Pentagon spokesperson the United States will now supply “armored personnel carriers, cargo and patrol vehicles, binoculars, night-vision goggles, and small patrol boats” to the Ukrainian government, and will step up efforts to train the Ukrainian National Guard. But with Russian tanks and antiaircraft missiles just minutes away from the border, it’s worth noting that the new U.S. aid to the Ukrainian government could take months to have an effect on the front lines.

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009
Some Ukrainian media also has reports that farmers in border regions were asked to hurry up with the harvest.
I hope they are wrong.

Speaking of wrong, the interpreter screwed this one up:
"tanks marked with the insignia of Russian Airborne forces were captured by Ukrainian troops just yesterday"

Actually the insignia there was likely of the Ukrainian Airmobile forces, since they captured that tank. It is quite easy to get them confused, since
they, well, use the identical base logo --- the same one Soviet army used, minus the red star.

Lucy Heartfilia
May 31, 2012


Burn down Russias economy until nothing is left.

Dolash
Oct 23, 2008

aNYWAY,
tHAT'S REALLY ALL THERE IS,
tO REPORT ON THE SUBJECT,
oF ME GETTING HURT,


As optimistic as I've been about Ukraine's chances at beating the separatists, if Russia suddenly decides to go through with an actual invasion there's no doubt Ukraine's forces wouldn't stand a chance - I have to believe that would be enough to see some serious sanctions out of Europe, the slow boil of the situation has left little else to express their displeasure with.

The plane's crash site and the international force investigating it might actually help in that regard in that I can't imagine Russia would want its invasion force to roll over the crash site and kill foreign nationals, so it might be enough to prevent them from risking an invasion in the short term. In the long term, if the separatists are crushed militarily and Ukraine reestablishes control of the south east I can't imagine Russia then launching an invasion after all their sympathizers had been put down.

Paladinus
Jan 11, 2014

heyHEYYYY!!!
In the light of the news on 'no hard evidence' of Russia smuggling weapons and military vehicles, how hard it is to obtain such evidence? Isn't it easy enough to monitor the border with satellites?

Adar
Jul 27, 2001

Paladinus posted:

In the light of the news on 'no hard evidence' of Russia smuggling weapons and military vehicles, how hard it is to obtain such evidence? Isn't it easy enough to monitor the border with satellites?

Hard evidence for whom? Anyone serious in the West or Eastern Europe already knows what Russia's doing. Anyone in Russia already knows Ukrainians are homonazis and glorious Russian troops are monitoring the situation closely but not doing anything, whether they are or not. Neither side cares about "hard evidence" of that type; one already knows the truth and one wouldn't believe it if the entire army simultaneously posted pics of a victory parade down the middle of Kiev. All the words in the middle are just for the benefit of making each side look good.

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Horseshoe theory
Mar 7, 2005

Any reason everyone but Putin is getting sanctioned? Putin threatened to nuke everyone if the money/assets (he denies exists) gets touched?

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