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Darth Walrus posted:Al-Jazeera put out a profile on the guy before his death was confirmed. Long story short, he was an experienced, talented, and extremely ruthless pillar of the Iranian right who was suspected to be one of the more likely candidates for the next Supreme Leader once Khamenei died or stepped down. Not an easily replaceable loss. It works on any ayatollah-- Ayatollah Nakhbadeh, Ayatollah Zahedi. As we speak, Ayatollah Razmara and his cadre of fanatics are consolidating their power.
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May 20, 2024 10:25
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Protip: Don't fly a helicopter into a mountainous region with very limited visibility.
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May 20, 2024 10:36
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Correction,beer_war posted:Protip: Don't fly a helicopter.
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May 20, 2024 10:48
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I know it was reported yesterday that the IRGC was already on the streets in certain areas, presumably to quell any protests
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May 20, 2024 11:33
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Apparently fireworks have been going off in parts of Terhan so somebody's happy he's gone.
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May 20, 2024 14:36
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The X-man cometh posted:Apparently fireworks have been going off in parts of Terhan so somebody's happy he's gone. He is well loathed at home, and the Iranian government holds power only through continued brutal subjugation of dissent against hangmen like him. Most young Iranian people are quietly celebrating amongst each other today
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May 20, 2024 16:44
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Nenonen posted:You want a list of effects that this will not have? Ooh I hope you have time. Let's start with plate tectonics... The Supreme Leader has the final say in theory, but rarely in practice and the current one is very old and in poor health. The president wields real power domestically and internationally, so it does matter who succeeds him. But since the system is built to be pretty hardline I agree not much will change.
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May 20, 2024 18:23
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Count Roland posted:The Supreme Leader has the final say in theory, but rarely in practice and the current one is very old and in poor health. The president wields real power domestically and internationally, so it does matter who succeeds him. But since the system is built to be pretty hardline I agree not much will change. Well, not so much in policy, but he was a particularly powerful, competent, and well-respected member of his faction (not to discount his domestic unpopularity, only to say that that was more about his faction in general being brutal fundies - he was unusually good at reaching outside his own team to other major power-brokers). His death has probably done severe damage to his bloc's capacity to function effectively and set up a talented and durable line of succession.
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May 20, 2024 19:45
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Well put
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May 20, 2024 23:49
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Reports of near 1,000 deaths of heat stroke so far in this year's Hajj season https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jun/20/more-than-1000-hajj-pilgrims-die-in-mecca-as-temperatures-hit-high-of-51c
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Jun 21, 2024 07:10
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fez_machine posted:Reports of near 1,000 deaths of heat stroke so far in this year's Hajj season quote:Out of about 150,000 pilgrims, Pakistan had so far recorded 58 deaths, a diplomat said. “I think given the number of people, given the weather, this is just natural,” the diplomat said.
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Jun 21, 2024 09:37
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That poo poo is only going to get worse in the coming years, it's grim as hell and you still have people loudly and angrily denying the facts, even as they are right in front of their face
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Jun 21, 2024 16:35
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Cicero posted:christ
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Jun 21, 2024 17:25
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Bohemian Nights posted:That poo poo is only going to get worse in the coming years, it's grim as hell and you still have people loudly and angrily denying the facts, even as they are right in front of their face For a couple years, yeah. But then it will start to get better from ~2030 on, and then it will be pretty decent for the next 20 years. Also: "Out of about 150,000 pilgrims, Pakistan had so far recorded 58 deaths, a diplomat said. “I think given the number of people, given the weather, this is just natural,” the diplomat said." 58 people out of 150,000 dying within a 1 week span, of people who are going to be an average age of about 70±10 years, sounds... completely fine and unremarkable. That's only 3000 deaths a year at that rate - which is going to be roughly what you'd expect by chance within any one week interval for a cohort of that age and health status. For instance, what is the baseline number of deaths on cruise ships in the US, which are probably similar levels of health and age as your average hajji? Also being told you go directly to heaven if you die on hajj probably doesn't make people take the best of precautions, even if I'm sure they'd rather not die, they're not going to stay inside in the air conditioning over it. Young people don't generally go on hajj, especially not from poorer countries, and women specifically are strongly discouraged from going until after menopause. The wait lengths for a hajj visa are long - like literally multiple decades (e: apparently up to 38 years in the longest queue state of Indonesia, and rarely much less than 20 years in any part of large Muslim country) - and it's an incredibly expensive trip, like many tens of thousands of dollars in PPP equivalence. Saladman fucked around with this message at 17:38 on Jun 21, 2024 |
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Jun 21, 2024 17:29
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Saladman posted:For a couple years, yeah. But then it will start to get better from ~2030 on, and then it will be pretty decent for the next 20 years. What do you base this on? Everything I see seem to indicate that temperatures will keep rising after 2030 I would love nothing more than to be wrong, so I'd appreciate some reading that indicates otherwise
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Jun 21, 2024 17:50
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Bohemian Nights posted:What do you base this on? Everything I see seem to indicate that temperatures will keep rising after 2030 The timing of the Hajj is based on the Islamic lunar calendar, so it doesn't always fall during summer in Mecca and Medina. Every solar year, it starts approximately 10 days earlier, so it will be getting into cooler months soon.
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Jun 21, 2024 18:06
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The average age of the pilgrims is 42-49.
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Jun 21, 2024 18:31
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Bohemian Nights posted:What do you base this on? Everything I see seem to indicate that temperatures will keep rising after 2030 A lot of people confuse Hajj with Umrah. They’re very different though. Hajj moves with the solar calendar just like Ramadan, and doing Umrah does not count as doing Hajj. Paladinus posted:The average age of the pilgrims is 42-49. Maybe for KSA/GCC citizens? I do see studies reporting for a lot of countries like RSA and Indonesia a median age of 49, which is surprisingly low to me since the wait list in eg Indonesia is >> 20 years (eg https://english.alarabiya.net/amp/News/gulf/2016/06/22/Indonesians-have-to-wait-for-37-years-to-perform-Haj). I guess people get on the list early. Personally I only know one person who did Hajj, the mom of a friend of mine. It sounds like pretty much the worst possible experience, but Disney World is also bordering on a visit to hell for me, and I seem to be the minority opinion there too.
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Jun 21, 2024 22:29
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Jesus... Eastern Iraq is baking. * Note: Time stamp is for Eastern Australia which is UTC +10. This is the forecast for 4pm Baghdad time.
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Jun 22, 2024 04:58
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