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Miffler posted:I would expect Turkey to turn it up a notch. I was thinking if it were already in a conflict with Turkey. I assumed that Assad could possibly use chemical weapons as a last line of defense when his regime was in immediate danger of collapse. Would their use trigger full on NATO intervention? I suppose the same would thought applies if the FSA were close to toppling Assad as well and he used it against them. More simply, are there any repercussions to using chemical weapons under any circumstances?
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Oct 4, 2012 14:05
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If Syria used chemical weapons it'd put Russia in a really awkward spot that would probably lead to them backing off and issuing some half-assed condemnation. Hence why Russia supposedly told Assad not to use them earlier and is probably screaming at him not to use them now.
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Oct 4, 2012 14:51
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The Ape of Naples posted:Are there any real ramifications if Assad decides to use chemical weapons or just harsh condemnation? From what I understand, any attempt by Assad to use chemical weapons would be instant suicide for the regime. It would more or less guarantee Western intervention, which is explicitly what the government wants to avoid. Last I heard, they were trying to relocate parts of their cache out of fear militant groups in the opposition would get hold of them. Then again, after the recent shelling I don't know what Assad's strategy is suppose to be.
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Oct 4, 2012 15:19
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I would expect if Syria uses chemical weapons on Turkey, at best for Assad, Turkey crushes them while Russia and China feebly bleat protests but don't do anything, and at worst, NATO invokes Article V and a full-blown invasion takes place, while China and Russia throw up their hands and say 'gently caress this poo poo, we're done defending you'. Either one, he's doomed.
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Oct 4, 2012 16:15
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Yeah, using chemical weapons on Turkey is an invitation for a particularly vicious invasion by NATO and occupation by Turkey. Even if Assad was careful about only using them on FSA fighters he'd probably end up with a NATO air campaign on his hands.
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Oct 4, 2012 17:11
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So guys in the know: Is it just accepted there's no chance the BRICS stand behind Assad because of that Russian fleet base in Syria? That thing looks like a pretty big prize to give up over one client state being a dictatorship in a civil war or not. Seems to me if Turkey manages to drag NATO into it, Assad at least wants to drag Iran into it and Iran has some friends left.
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Oct 4, 2012 18:04
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chairface posted:So guys in the know: Is it just accepted there's no chance the BRICS stand behind Assad because of that Russian fleet base in Syria? That thing looks like a pretty big prize to give up over one client state being a dictatorship in a civil war or not. Seems to me if Turkey manages to drag NATO into it, Assad at least wants to drag Iran into it and Iran has some friends left. Brazil and India really have nothing to do with the current situation. BRICs isn't really a bloc or anything like that. China is backing Syria because they don't want to start a precedence for foreign intervention and Russia has economic and military ties that it doesn't want cut. Neither will actually put up the resources to defend Syria beyond making a mess of things in the security council. Last I've heard that Russian navy base was fairly primitive as well, so not really much of an asset. Don't think it can even host warships, but just smaller support ships as well. So yeah basically Syria no matter what happens won't start off WW3.
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Oct 4, 2012 18:26
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chairface posted:So guys in the know: Is it just accepted there's no chance the BRICS stand behind Assad because of that Russian fleet base in Syria? That thing looks like a pretty big prize to give up over one client state being a dictatorship in a civil war or not. Seems to me if Turkey manages to drag NATO into it, Assad at least wants to drag Iran into it and Iran has some friends left. The naval base isn't actually that fancy of a naval base, it can't service larger ships and hasn't been running at full tilt for the past few years. It certainly isn't worth squaring off with anyone over. Iran doesn't want to see Assad fall and is probably providing some material support, but in the grand scheme of things they can't really afford to do too much more than that, they've got enough on their plate.
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Oct 4, 2012 18:27
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J33uk posted:The naval base isn't actually that fancy of a naval base, it can't service larger ships and hasn't been running at full tilt for the past few years. It certainly isn't worth squaring off with anyone over. Iran doesn't want to see Assad fall and is probably providing some material support, but in the grand scheme of things they can't really afford to do too much more than that, they've got enough on their plate. Other way around on this part. It sat mostly idle until a few years ago, but since then it's been under renovations, port dredging, and other improvements so that it can be enlarged to service full sized vessels. It was a useless vestige of Soviet times for years, but Russia's plans to make it into something more are relatively recent. That said, those plans haven't been finished, it's still functionally just a dock for vessels under 100 meters or so, and I agree this isn't something Russia's ready to start WW3 over.
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Oct 4, 2012 18:47
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Yeah, also the way size of the base and way the base is awkwardly positioned is going it difficult for them to do more than park a frigate sized vessel there there just isn't any room to dock them or move them into position. It certainly isn't designed to be a major forward position unless buy the entire port and a portion of the city and basically start building it from scratch. I don't think Russia, China or anyone else is going to lift a finger beyond diplomatic protests if things escalate.
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Oct 4, 2012 18:59
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Both the Times of Israel and Bloomberg News are reporting that two Tunisians have been detained in Turkey following possible links to the Benghazi attack. http://www.timesofisrael.com/two-reportedly-held-in-istanbul-over-us-ambassadors-killing-in-libya/ http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-04/turkey-arrests-two-after-killing-of-u-s-ambassador-tv.html Tortilla Maker fucked around with this message at 19:38 on Oct 4, 2012 |
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Oct 4, 2012 19:35
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Is there really any chance of Russia or China declaring war on anyone if this escalates? What the hell does Syria represent that's so drat important they'd so severely strain ties with the west and enter a war I don't think they could win without saying "gently caress this," overturning the board and launching Nuclear Apocolypse?
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Oct 4, 2012 19:53
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Spiritus Nox posted:Is there really any chance of Russia or China declaring war on anyone if this escalates? What the hell does Syria represent that's so drat important they'd so severely strain ties with the west and enter a war I don't think they could win without saying "gently caress this," overturning the board and launching Nuclear Apocolypse? No. As for why they care, look at it this way; from their perspective, the West and its proxies in the Middle East have been funnelling arms to insurgent forces in a pro-Russian country while insisting that it is absolutely outrageous and a breach of international law that they do the same. We're also interfering in the internal affairs of a foreign country in a way that we would never accept happening to us. From their perspective, it must seem a teeny bit hypocritical.
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Oct 4, 2012 19:59
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Funny, we were joking today with some colleagues that exactly on this day, 100 years earlier the Ottoman empire declared war on the balkan countries. 3 days later the firs balkan war started. I guess things haven't changed much...
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Oct 4, 2012 20:03
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Nations don't declare war anymore, they just do it. World War I didn't exactly start for any rational reason. Any news on Azerbaijan/Armenia? The Georgian election just went in a pro-Putin direction. Instability in the Caucasus could lead to a Russian intervention, and Israel, Iran, and Lebanon are all right there. I have no evidence but I think the missile test was a threat to turn Afghanistan into a smoking crater.
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Oct 4, 2012 20:15
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Spiritus Nox posted:Is there really any chance of Russia or China declaring war on anyone if this escalates? What the hell does Syria represent that's so drat important they'd so severely strain ties with the west and enter a war I don't think they could win without saying "gently caress this," overturning the board and launching Nuclear Apocolypse? Absolutely not. Their interest in this is purely a) frustrating America's foreign policy objectives and b) making sure their own domestic discontents don't get any funny ideas watching so many Arab countries rise up and depose their leaders.
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Oct 4, 2012 20:49
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Killer robot posted:Other way around on this part. It sat mostly idle until a few years ago, but since then it's been under renovations, port dredging, and other improvements so that it can be enlarged to service full sized vessels. It was a useless vestige of Soviet times for years, but Russia's plans to make it into something more are relatively recent. I'd heard that there were certainly plans to expand it, but I'm not sure if any of those got underway in the first place. According to the wiki page for the base (which is obviously not a great source as hey, it's a wiki page) in June 2012 Russian TV (again, not the greatest source for accurate reporting on the Russian military) was saying that one of the piers was out of commission and that the whole thing was manned by four personnel. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_naval_facility_in_Tartus#cite_note-15 If anyone has any better sources I'd love to read them. It pretty much sounds like the saddest base ever. But either way you're right, it's just not worth starting a fight over. It's not like Russia really needs a solid reason to oppose Western intervention beyond opposing Western intervention. Same deal with China, they don't give too much of a poo poo about Syria itself, it's just that their default position is to always oppose any intervention. World War 3 isn't about to break out, the most military action I can see coming in the near future would be Turkey setting up a safezone with NATO offering strictly defensive support of Turkish territory and even that's a long shot at this point. Off topic: Love that Geth avatar
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Oct 4, 2012 21:30
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I don't think the issue is so much the size or quality of the base as it is that it is a base in an ally country. Assad's regime falling makes them look weak more than it actually makes them weak. Especially when RT has spent the last year saying that Assad is attacking a terrorist outfit and that Russia has to stand up for him despite Western lies, propaganda, and imperialism. I don't think Putin would advocate a war just to enhance his public perception, but I'm sure they will support Assad as long as Assad is alive. Also, whoever brought it up, I forgot to mention the Kurds. Definitely a factor to consider in regards to any Turkish military action in Syria, because if I'm not mistaken, a big part of the Syrian/Turk border on the Syrian side was actually taken over by the Kurds since Assad's forces are stretched so thin. They'll cling onto that land for dear life too, and they won't take kindly to any sizable Turk action in the area. Volkerball fucked around with this message at 22:03 on Oct 4, 2012 |
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Oct 4, 2012 21:45
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Since 1996, Syria has been the occasional home of Admiral Kuznetsov, Russia's only carrier of her class since the purchase of Varyag by China. I would argue that makes Syria a significant strategic staging point for Russian fleet operations. Also, the uprising came at a time of another planned (since 2010) mission of A. K. (and her escort) in the area.
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Oct 4, 2012 22:37
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steinrokkan posted:Since 1996, Syria has been the occasional home of Admiral Kuznetsov, Russia's only carrier of her class since the purchase of Varyag by China. I would argue that makes Syria a significant strategic staging point for Russian fleet operations. Also, the uprising came at a time of another planned (since 2010) mission of A. K. (and her escort) in the area. Eh, I don't think the Kuznetsov actually docked in that base, it almost certainly sat off shore. The carrier is probably physically larger than the base itself. They were showing the flag, but because you park a carrier off of somewhere doesn't make it a "significant staging point" any more than a Coast Guard station if the Nimitz sails by it. I know everyone in this thread has these "Red Storm Rising" war scenario in their head but maybe it would be safer to just stick to that stuff in a Heart of Iron mod. Ardennes fucked around with this message at 22:50 on Oct 4, 2012 |
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Oct 4, 2012 22:45
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Is there any news or information on the supposed rioting over costs going on in Iran? Or is it not much. Edit: i read an article the other day but info seems scarce and all the same.
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Oct 4, 2012 22:54
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Ardennes posted:Eh, I don't think the Kuznetsov actually docked in that base, it probably sat off shore. The carrier is probably physically larger than the base itself. While that is true, I believe that the capability of providing immediate support from a Mediterranean port is vital for maintaining the Baltic and Mediterranean fleet as a relevant force capable of reaching the Atlantic Ocean, as shown by Kuznetsov's less than stellar operational record (constant failures and need of extensive maintenance). Russia tries to maintain its face and it looks like it won't be able to keep the game up if it loses even what seems like an apparently insignificant base. I don't believe any sort of "Red Dawn" scenario is even remotely possible, in fact I consider any speculations to that effect to be outright ridiculous (it's not the 19th century anymore, for Christ's sake), but I understand Russia's position and stern opposition to toppling the status quo. steinrokkan fucked around with this message at 22:58 on Oct 4, 2012 |
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Oct 4, 2012 22:55
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Spiritus Nox posted:Is there really any chance of Russia or China declaring war on anyone if this escalates? What the hell does Syria represent that's so drat important they'd so severely strain ties with the west and enter a war I don't think they could win without saying "gently caress this," overturning the board and launching Nuclear Apocolypse? Putin might lose some of his macho-cred if Assad falls but it wouldn't be enough to hurt his position of power at home so he's not going to risk turning the ME in to a giant warzone. China only cares because they don't want to give any reason for their own repression to get acted on.
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Oct 4, 2012 23:04
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Evil Fluffy posted:China only cares because they don't want to give any reason for their own repression to get acted on. They don't need to worry. No one's insane enough to start a war with China.
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Oct 4, 2012 23:07
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New Division posted:They don't need to worry. No one's insane enough to start a war with China. As the Middle East falls apart they will probably start to make power plays where it suits them (mainly involving Pacific claims). No one is going to provoke China, they will take the initiative when the time comes.
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Oct 4, 2012 23:12
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McDowell posted:As the Middle East falls apart they will probably start to make power plays where it suits them (mainly involving Pacific claims). No one is going to provoke China, they will take the initiative when the time comes. It is more than likely that China has much, much more to gain by playing the role of a power of reconciliation and reconstruction than by trying to project military power.
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Oct 4, 2012 23:15
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Spiritus Nox posted:Is there really any chance of Russia or China declaring war on anyone if this escalates? What the hell does Syria represent that's so drat important they'd so severely strain ties with the west and enter a war I don't think they could win without saying "gently caress this," overturning the board and launching Nuclear Apocolypse? Russia would find Turkey rather indigestible even if they did want to start something. Unlike South Ossetia, Turkey's military is pretty well equipped and trained, and for decades the Turkish military was focused entirely around repelling a Soviet invasion from the north.
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Oct 4, 2012 23:58
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boxorocks posted:Is there any news or information on the supposed rioting over costs going on in Iran? Or is it not much. Iranian opposition pages have videos and news, but it's in Persian so that's not much help. Here's various videos of the protest in the Grand Bazaar of Tehran https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=3691085080446 https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=3690787873016 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MDFjyg1KXpw In the first video they're chanting "death to the dictator" In the second video they chant "Get out of Syria, and look at our problems"
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Oct 5, 2012 00:09
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The Al Nusra Front claims to have executed 20 captured Nusayri fighters, resulting in one of the most haunting combatant-on-combatant  images I've seen in a while.
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Oct 5, 2012 02:37
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I can't find many sources but it looks like thousands have protested in Turkey over the new legislation. http://www.itv.com/news/update/2012-10-04/thousands-protest-in-turkey-over-syria-strikes-bill/ quote:Demonstrators chanted slogans such as "Don't remain silent! Shout! All people are brothers and sisters!" and held banners emblazoned with "Hands off Syria!" and "Get out of the Middle East". As an outsider who has been following Syria for the past two years it's difficult for me to understand the mentality of these protests. Is the sentiment that Turkey has no business in Syria even if they're being attacked by Syria? The response has seemed quite proportional and rational so far. Is there evidence Erdogan's statement of there being no intention of starting war is false?
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Oct 5, 2012 02:38
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Cirofren posted:Is there evidence Erdogan's statement of there being no intention of starting war is false? Not necessarily, but I think there's a general feeling among the Turkish left and some others that escalating the conflict beyond the tit-for-tat that occurred over the past day could lead to some sort of bloody, protracted involvement, especially since Erdogan is comfortable with pretty grandiose statements (but he rarely follows through). Think of it as a pre-emptive protest I suppose.
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Oct 5, 2012 02:42
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I know the Turkish border areas have seen rising resentment against Syrian refugees. I also know that prior to the border incident a few days ago polling indicated most Turks wanted to stay out of the Syrian civil war. edit: link if you want back up on the claim that most Turks opposed any intervention in Syria a couple of weeks ago. http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turks-against-syria-intervention.aspx?pageID=238&nid=30086 Of course, the mortar bombing has probably changed some minds, but it was never going to change everyone's mind. New Division fucked around with this message at 02:49 on Oct 5, 2012 |
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Oct 5, 2012 02:45
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Probably outdated, but: quote:Some 30,000 Russian citizens live in Syria, according to reports in the New York Times and Financial Times. Wow, that's pretty huge.
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Oct 5, 2012 03:10
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New Division posted:edit: link if you want back up on the claim that most Turks opposed any intervention in Syria a couple of weeks ago. http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turks-against-syria-intervention.aspx?pageID=238&nid=30086 Thanks for this. I'm not mystified these protesters don't want Turkish troops marching on Damascus or anything, I am a little confused as to what exactly happened to cause a protest against "war with Syria" when it's been ruled out by Erdogan and how a pre-emptive protest escalated to tear gassing. That article did help give me some perspective. Are there any good blogs or what have you to follow regarding sentiment on the ground and these protests?
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Oct 5, 2012 03:16
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If you're interested in following developments in Turkey, then this website offers a decent start. It's published by a Turkish think tank. It's obviously only one point of view on what's going on in Turkey, but it is written and published for an English audience so it has that going for it as far as easing into the politics of Turkey. http://www.turkishweekly.net/
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Oct 5, 2012 03:27
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MothraAttack posted:The Al Nusra Front claims to have executed 20 captured Nusayri fighters, resulting in one of the most haunting combatant-on-combatant I could be wrong, but this looks like the EXACT same location as the mass execution on 10 September 2012. I wouldn't be surprised if this wasn't a recent incident, as Jabhat Nusra claims. It could just be them releasing old photos. Compare the photo and this video. New Division posted:If you're interested in following developments in Turkey, then this website offers a decent start. It's published by a Turkish think tank. It's obviously only one point of view on what's going on in Turkey, but it is written and published for an English audience so it has that going for it as far as easing into the politics of Turkey. Yeah, I've been using Turkish Weekly for a while now. They aren't the most impartial group but their analyses provide some very good insight. QuoProQuid fucked around with this message at 04:24 on Oct 5, 2012 |
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Oct 5, 2012 04:22
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QuoProQuid posted:I could be wrong, but this looks like the EXACT same location as the mass execution on 10 September 2012. I wouldn't be surprised if this wasn't a recent incident, as Jabhat Nusra claims. Good call. And that it's sad that we can make calls like that.
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Oct 5, 2012 06:43
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MothraAttack posted:The Al Nusra Front claims to have executed 20 captured Nusayri fighters, resulting in one of the most haunting combatant-on-combatant Bit offtopic, but is that a retention cable I see or does his handgun double as a handset?
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Oct 5, 2012 08:07
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MothraAttack posted:Good call. And that it's sad that we can make calls like that. It is, I posted about this earlier, at the time it was described as a joint operation with al-Nusra Front, and that they captured a bus full of soldiers. Guess we know now what al-Nusra's contribution was to the operation. Here's my post on the whole thing. Brown Moses fucked around with this message at 09:48 on Oct 5, 2012 |
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Oct 5, 2012 09:32
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Not hugely significant, but it's nice to have a news story supported by videoquote:Syrian rebels say capture air defense base near Damascus Here's video from the incident. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=miHEfZ3GPls https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OIBtbluff48 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A99eVuQ-L54 [edit] And this, which I can't appear to find the original channel for even though it's obviously from the same sequence. Might be private https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jOFFrRlCV3M Brown Moses fucked around with this message at 12:34 on Oct 5, 2012 |
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Oct 5, 2012 12:27
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