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C-Euro posted:most every Modern deck would run Tarmgoyf if a playset wasn't several hundred dollars (any deck already running green at least, which is a lot of them) I disagree. If that were the case, we'd see the pros who already have access to Tarmogoyf putting it in everything. It does happen sometimes with Tarmo-Twin and Tarmo-Finnity, but it's not like every deck has to jam four Goofy.
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Mar 7, 2015 15:22
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Keep in mind that individual Mythics are about as frequent as Rares were back in the days of, e.g., Tempest. The introduction of Mythics was basically to allow them to shrink set sizes (for a more consistent experience), while still having the rarest cards show up about as often as before. Large sets today have 121 cards on the rare sheet - older sets, at least once they'd stopped printing various non-rare cards on the rare sheet, had 110. Individual large set rares about twice as common now, while individual mythics are only negligibly less frequent than rares used to be. Small sets, on the other hand, have actually been getting bigger over time - they used to have 44 rares for a while, and then got bumped up to 55 rares at one point. (Have you figured out that the MTG printers are 11 cards wide yet?). Then Dissension bumped things up to 60 rares, and small sets have stayed on multiples-of-10 ever since (while large sets have remained multiples of 11). It would be interesting to learn what was up with that. Post-Mythic small sets have 80 cards on the rare sheet, so your Tasigur shows up in 1/40 packs, while Ugin shows up in 1/80. This is a bit of a bigger change compared to your 1/60 Future Sight packs containing a Tarmogoyf.
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Mar 7, 2015 15:54
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C-Euro posted:most every Modern deck would run Tarmgoyf if a playset wasn't several hundred dollars (any deck already running green at least, which is a lot of them) Price isn't keeping Goyf out of any lists, its keeping people from playing a list with Goyfs sure, but Amulet players and Scapeshift players aren't thinking "Oh boy I wish I had my Goyf right now" Boggles isn't really thinking "Oh man I wish I could drop some Aura's for a Goyf" For lots of players, especially Pros and Grinders, card price isn't an issue. They often have a network that lets them access to just about any card they might think is good, if other lists would be improved by Goyf, we'd be seeing it in the results.
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Mar 7, 2015 16:46
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Chamale posted:I disagree. If that were the case, we'd see the pros who already have access to Tarmogoyf putting it in everything. It does happen sometimes with Tarmo-Twin and Tarmo-Finnity, but it's not like every deck has to jam four Goofy. and Tarmo Blue Moon and Tarmo UB control. SCG Baltimore showed that adding goyfs to control decks makes them pretty good. First Bass posted:And it's already gone up since it was spoilered for MMA2 by more than I care to spend on most cards TCGplayer shows it fell off $10 mid value since yesterday. Prices look like they're backing down from $190.
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Mar 7, 2015 17:28
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I'm not seeing any dip in median value on Goyfs. http://www.mtgstocks.com/cards/3494 It's just not a 4 of in all decks. Many people feel like Siege Rhino is just better, but Goyf fills the curve slot to make 8 beaters in those types of decks.
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Mar 7, 2015 17:56
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jassi007 posted:and Tarmo Blue Moon and Tarmo UB control. SCG Baltimore showed that adding goyfs to control decks makes them pretty good. That event had 16 Tarmogoyfs, and 23 Snapcaster Mages in the Top 8, but people don't talk about Snapcaster Mage being a card that's a "must play in every deck" the way they do Tarmogoyf. It's also one single weekend, Baltimore also had a W/B Tokens deck in the Top 8 and not a single copy of Affinity, Scapeshift, Amulet Bloom, Burn or Junk. If you were to point to that and go "those decks are dead now and bad because no copy made Top 8 that event" everyone would call you an idiot so why would you go "see this one event, everything is always better with Goyf" people still talk about the one time Goyf appeared in Affinity like its hugely significant and ignore it never happening again. The list of most played cards in MTGO Daily decks with 3-1 or 4-0 records have Snapcaster Mage, and Spellskite of all cards in 1st and 2nd. Oh yeah Goyf is right there in 4th but it's still not a "must play card" or even the most played creature in the format. I know its 200 dollars and thats bad and crazy but come on guys be reasonable. Ciprian Maricon fucked around with this message at 18:15 on Mar 7, 2015 |
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Mar 7, 2015 18:11
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I think if the price barrier wasn't there you'd see it in more decks/top 8 lists.
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Mar 7, 2015 18:30
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Molybdenum posted:I think if the price barrier wasn't there you'd see it in more decks/top 8 lists. I don't. People that play in those events generally don't have card restrictions, and if it were, it'd just be a minimally greater number.
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Mar 7, 2015 18:39
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Molybdenum posted:I think if the price barrier wasn't there you'd see it in more decks/top 8 lists. Why? I can't stress enough how irrelevant card cost is for a very large number of the types of players consistently at the top tables. Pros, guys grinding the Open Series are either so invested in the game that buying Tarmogoyfs isn't something they aren't willing to do, or they have a network of connections to get them for tournaments if they want them. Some guys don't even own any cards for certain formats and just borrow entire decks. Ciprian Maricon fucked around with this message at 18:56 on Mar 7, 2015 |
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Mar 7, 2015 18:53
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People whine about prices of Goyf and Lili and whatnot like that's what's keeping them out of the format, but they're the same people who won't buy the Goyfs when (if) they drop to $50 after Modern Masters 2. Oh, and I was using Goyf as a control finisher before it was cool. 
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Mar 7, 2015 18:59
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Deck cost is really only a factor when looking at MTGO results, its not a factor when looking at large tournaments. This is why U/R cruise was 90% of the meta online and only 85% of the meta in paper.
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Mar 7, 2015 18:59
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eSporks posted:Deck cost is really only a factor when looking at MTGO results, its not a factor when looking at large tournaments. This is why U/R cruise was 90% of the meta online and only 85% of the meta in paper. Boring and mindless as that deck was, I wish we could go back to it in modern. Neither of my online decks could ever lose to it.
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Mar 7, 2015 19:01
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suicidesteve posted:People whine about prices of Goyf and Lili and whatnot like that's what's keeping them out of the format, but they're the same people who won't buy the Goyfs when (if) they drop to $50 after Modern Masters 2. Lmao it's not dropping to $50
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Mar 7, 2015 19:01
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TheKingofSprings posted:Lmao it's not dropping to $50 Ok. Insert the exact value of Goyf 6 weeks after MMA 2 comes out. I suspect it will be $87.73 TCG mid, but only time will tell. The number wasn't exactly the point of that post.
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Mar 7, 2015 19:06
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Was its price even affected at all last time?
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Mar 7, 2015 19:20
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Irony Be My Shield posted:Was its price even affected at all last time? http://www.mtgstocks.com/cards/3494
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Mar 7, 2015 19:25
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I think there is a huge subset of modern players that play tier 2 decks or refuse a green splash on tier 1 because they aren't willing to drop $800 on goyfs. They try to justify it as a metacall or having the advantage of being a rogue brew/mana base consistency but the unspoken budget reason is king. if they had goyfs they'd play them. Basically, supply goes up, so more decklists will include goyf. The top tables might not change much, but people will abandon their tier 2 decks and you'll see goyfs play % go up. It isn't guaranteed that only pros and grinders get to the top tables either. Remember that a not insignificant part of making top 8 is luck. Pros have a 65% win rate, but to get top 8 at a big event you need close to 85%-90%. I'd be totally okay with them printing it as an uncommon just to crash the price but stores (and people that bought it at $50+) would howl bloody murder. tl:Dr: goyf is only 4th most played because his price is absurd, if he was $20 he'd be #1 by a big margin.
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Mar 7, 2015 19:26
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The real reason to print Goyf at regular rare is to show both online stores and Mr. Suitcases that other than reserve-listed poo poo, anything can and will be reprinted, en masse, and the price will crater, so don't bother hoarding and instead actually sell your cards to people who want to play them. I have no pity for market speculators who only make the game more expensive for everyone else. Hell yeah I'd run Abzhan tomorrow if I could grab a set of goyfs for $100 instead of $800, and it would actually improve players at all levels, since your local store isn't a hodgepodge of tier-2 lists because nobody except the rich kid has goyfs to jam into lists.
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Mar 7, 2015 19:42
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Yep. The high prices on the secondary market are bad for the overall health of the game. Its surprising wizards isn't doing more about it. Look at how well received fetch and shock land reprints were.
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Mar 7, 2015 19:45
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Goyf is 4th most played creature in lists with a 3-1 or 4-0 record if we looked at the full meta he's far more likely to be lower not higher as inexpensive decks like Burn or Affinity make up huge swathes of the meta as a whole, just not as much of the top tables. For sure more Goyfs would be played by more players if it wasn't so expensive, no one ever said that wouldn't be the case, this discussion is about people trying to claim Goyf is a must play card and would be in every single deck if it wasn't 200 and that's demonstrably false. It's nowhere near "a must play" card and plenty of players who've played it in the past and have access to it, stop playing it later on depending on other factors. Everblight posted:The real reason to print Goyf at regular rare is to show both online stores and Mr. Suitcases that other than reserve-listed poo poo, anything can and will be reprinted, en masse, and the price will crater, so don't bother hoarding and instead actually sell your cards to people who want to play them. When is this retarded talking point going to die. Prices aren't high because Speculators and Stores are hoarding cards. Speculators are too small a group to sustain a price, which is why cards like Nivmagus Elemental or countless other cards can spike due to speculators but plummet after when demand isn't there. Goyf is 200 dollars because stores like SCG and CFB sold out at lower prices and needed to offer more on their buylist in order to replace their stock. They aren't hiding 6000 copies in a warehouse and its not 200 dollars because the 17 MTG Finance turds on twitter who actually have money spent their entire graduation check from grandma trying to buy out TCG player. The Nick Bevcars of the world have a tiny impact on the market, especially long term. Printing Goyf at common isn't going to do poo poo about prices for any card other than Goyf because the price on the secondary market, even with all manner of inefficiencies in the market are directly tied to how much people want them and how many copies there are. It's not going to scare speculators or stores, and even if it did, hoarding is such a tiny part of what drives price that eliminating it isn't going to suddenly make Liliana of the Veil 25$, it's just not as a big a factor as people love to pretend it is. It's easy to look at big online retailers as the villains, especially when you notice that their advertising and presence lets them charge more for cards than most. If you're a relatively new player you might not realize how much better that is than it was before. Through the massive volume of sales they do big retailers like SCG are pretty good at matching prices to demand, they bring an efficiency that was sorely lacking to the market and we're all better off for it. Yeah card prices are way way higher now than in the past but back in the day when the best price information readily available was whatever someone made the gently caress up and printed in Scrye three weeks ago, it was absolutely terrible. One guy at your store who had an internet connection or traveled to nearby events could absolutely gently caress you for weeks before you realized what was going on. Ciprian Maricon fucked around with this message at 20:26 on Mar 7, 2015 |
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Mar 7, 2015 19:55
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edit: doublepost sorry Ciprian Maricon fucked around with this message at 20:07 on Mar 7, 2015 |
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Mar 7, 2015 20:04
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Acting like the retailers or collectors are Bond villains trying to drive up the price by hoarding might be an unhelpful strawman, but I think sending a "the price on any non-reserved card can crater to $10-15 at any time" message would still be helpful, because a lot of the argument against reprints (or rather, for reprints that are so slow or anemic as to be useless or actively unhelpful) is that it would hurt all the folks who are operating under the assumption that the high prices are somehow safe or "real." This is an actual argument that's been raised by folks like Dickeye in these conversations before; I don't remember if you (Ciprian) were one of them so I won't put words in your mouth. If there was a culture of not being willing to spend more on a card than you're willing to lose (or, for retailers, not inflating the price past what you're willing to lose if you get caught holding stock at an overinflated price) everyone would be better off, except of course for that small minority who actually do embody the strawman.
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Mar 7, 2015 20:41
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People itt are overestimating how good Tarmagoyf is.
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Mar 7, 2015 21:52
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Big Anime Fan Here posted:People itt are overestimating how good Tarmagoyf is. nah. it's real good. Tarmogoyf is the reason Tarfire saw play from time to time over bolt, it's that good.
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Mar 7, 2015 21:56
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I know it's "very good" lmao. However, cost prohibition isn't what's keeping it out of decks. It really isn't the best option to slot into a numerous top tier decks. At the end of the day it's still just a no evasion ground guy without a relevant creature type or ability and that's just not optimal a good percentage of the time.
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Mar 7, 2015 22:06
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Everblight posted:Tarmogoyf is the reason Tarfire saw play from time to time over bolt, it's that good. Tarfire saw play with with Bolt not over it, because it feeds Goyf, is searchable with Goblin Matron, and more importantly because 2 damage + upside for 1 red is perfectly playable in loads of formats. If it was missing the word "Tribal" from its rules text it would have still seen play because a 1 CMC burn spell that also counts as a goblin card is pretty relevant. JerryLee posted:Acting like the retailers or collectors are Bond villains trying to drive up the price by hoarding might be an unhelpful strawman, but I think sending a "the price on any non-reserved card can crater to $10-15 at any time" message would still be helpful, Exactly what you're describing has happened multiple times and it hasn't done anything. It doesn't send a message, even if it did, its obvious people don't give a gently caress. Thoughtseize went from its highest of 80 dollars to as little as 15. Chord of Calling, from 50 to 4 (even before the ban of Pod). Polluted Delta was selling for 100+ dollars at one point, now its 15, Flooded Strand was around 100, and now its 15 too. Just be honest "I want aggressive reprints because I want to play with all the cards for cheap" is a perfectly reasonable position lmao at retarded justifications like "it would send a good message!!" and "those dastardly stores and speculators!!" Ciprian Maricon fucked around with this message at 23:51 on Mar 7, 2015 |
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Mar 7, 2015 22:25
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I normally play in events like PPTQs and GPTs, and at that level the cost of Goyf does have an effect on the meta. Most people don't have unlimited budgets, and borrowing cards is less of a factor since the local guys who you would borrow them from are probably playing in the event as well. Add in the fact that about 80% of the Magic played in my area is Standard, and I can see why people don't want to make the investment.
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Mar 7, 2015 22:41
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Ciprian Maricon posted:Just be honest "I want aggressive reprints because I want to play with all the cards for cheap" is a perfectly reasonable position lmao at retarded justifications like "it would send a good message!!" and "those dastardly stores and speculators!!" That seems pretty uncalled for, dude. I don't feel like I or anyone else I've seen have been dishonest about the fact that what we mainly want is just for everyone (including ourselves) to be able to play the game at a reasonable price, for a value of reasonable price that holds water for anyone without a cocaine habit. I'm a consumer just like you, I don't just wander in here from GBS because I enjoy arguing about economics in nerdgames. You may be correct that future examples aren't likely to cause any more of a sweeping behavior shift than past ones have. I remember when we were all arguing with Deadeye and pointing out to him that the shockland price crashing (this was at that time the current example) hadn't driven game stores out of business, but he was still crying about his fears that the Tarmogoyf price correcting to anything reasonable would hole his precious employer below the waterline. I don't know if he, or the dozens of other people who have effectively parroted the same talking points in the threads over the years, would be any more convinced now that we've had Thoughtseize and ally fetches and the sky still hasn't fallen. If there really is no number of reprints that will trigger a sense of pattern recognition in the people who will  when their $400 playset of whatever suddenly becomes a $60 playset, then I guess Wizards just needs to call everyone's bluff as often as possible.
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Mar 8, 2015 00:43
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Big Anime Fan Here posted:People itt are overestimating how good Tarmagoyf is. agreed. the one time i had a tarmogoyf in play in my life, my opponent vapor snagged it back to their hand, putting my threads of disloyalty into the bin. card is garbage
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Mar 8, 2015 00:50
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JerryLee posted:If there really is no number of reprints that will trigger a sense of pattern recognition in the people who will People's collection losing value is also an undesirable thing, its just an acceptable consequence of addressing a bigger problem of accessibility. No amount of messaging and bluff calling is going to make people OK with the value of their collection imploding, and they shouldn't be, that sucks. Hoping that it happens again and again so people don't and recognize some pattern is really dumb, reprint stuff when it needs to be reprinted, that's it. Not for some message, not in an attempt to influence the way people behave.
Ciprian Maricon fucked around with this message at 02:40 on Mar 8, 2015 |
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Mar 8, 2015 02:10
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I don't care what the magic cards are worth it would be more fun for me if everyone played with optimal decks
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Mar 8, 2015 02:50
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Ciprian Maricon posted:People's collection losing value is also an undesirable thing, its just an acceptable consequence of addressing a bigger problem of accessibility. No amount of messaging and bluff calling is going to make people OK with the value of their collection imploding, and they shouldn't be, that sucks. Have whatever opinions you want about what's "really dumb," but I think you may still be misunderstanding me at least a little. I'm not trying to 'influence behavior' because I'm sitting here jerking off to the thought of playing Pavlov with magic players. I agree with you that people's collections, or retail stock, losing value is a bad thing,* and I would like that to happen less in the future, and stopping collections from having inflated values in the first place is a part of that! *Which is not to say that I'm going to stop wallowing in schadenfreude at the folks who blame the reprints for their collection's loss of dollar value, rather than the market that they allowed to scalp them in the first place.
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Mar 8, 2015 02:57
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Yeah, gently caress collection value. gently caress the collectable aspect of the game. What real game has a collectable aspect? What other game manufacturer in their right mind would refuse to manufacture the pieces of their game? Sorry, we don't make pawns for chess anymore, they're on the reserved list.
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Mar 8, 2015 03:16
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That's perfectly reasonable. So why did you not just say that instead of some really silly stuff about SENDING A MESSAGEBig Anime Fan Here posted:I don't care what the magic cards are worth it would be more fun for me if everyone played with optimal decks I personally don't care either, but I wont pretend it's irrelevant to how willing people are to buy cards to play with me or how Wizards approaches reprints. Kraus posted:Yeah, gently caress collection value. gently caress the collectable aspect of the game. What real game has a collectable aspect? What other game manufacturer in their right mind would refuse to manufacture the pieces of their game? Range on bro, but lmao WOTC was making games before Magic came along. The game is collectible specifically because at the time, games had a pretty short shelf life, people would buy it and then sales would slow down to a trickle after around a few months and even expansions or supplementary products moved slow, even big big games like DnD would really struggle to move expansions and supplementary products compared to initial sales. It was incredibly rare for a game to be on shelves for more than a year. Making the game collectible with random packs, was their plan to change that dynamic. It's pretty funny for you to rail against exactly the design decision developers hoped and expected would give the game longevity 20 years later after its become an immensely popular juggernaut in the industry. Ciprian Maricon fucked around with this message at 03:43 on Mar 8, 2015 |
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Mar 8, 2015 03:23
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Ciprian Maricon posted:That event had 16 Tarmogoyfs, and 23 Snapcaster Mages in the Top 8, but people don't talk about Snapcaster Mage being a card that's a "must play in every deck" the way they do Tarmogoyf. Lots of goyf chat. People don't talk about snapcaster because it was until recently $20, which I feel a lot of people find perfectly reasonable. Without a reprint on the horizon for snapcaster, the discussion may very well change. If, lets say hypothetically goyf is reprinted in quantities to lower its price to $80 (this almost certainly won't happen) and snapcaster rises to around $75, people will probably start talking about snapcaster. Twin is a good deck and it needs them. I am currently on twin, it is the best modern deck I can assemble. I would seriously consider running a green deck if Goyfs were more reasonably priced. I know many, many pod players switched into twin because the price barrier of bob, goyf lili vs. twin & snapcaster. Sure the pro's can get cards, but when you have 752 people at SCG Baltimore, what percentage of people are in that situation? 5%? 10%? Price and availability are a real problem to people who COULD be at a top table with a good deck actually being able to play the deck. I'd say at an event, more people are skilled enough, get good matches etc. that they have a chance to top 8. However some of them are on decks like scapeshift, affinity, infect, which are all good, but I think it is a reasonable argument to say a skilled player is better off with Abzan Midrange or UR Twin currently. Plus you can talk about how goyf does or doesn't make decks better, but we've seen time and time again in modern decks that splash into green for Goyf end up doing well.
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Mar 8, 2015 04:09
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Yeah don't disagree with any of that but all of that that still doesn't make Goyf a "must play" or a card that "every deck would run if it was cheaper" which is what started this discussion in the first place
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Mar 8, 2015 04:18
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Ciprian Maricon posted:Yeah don't disagree with any of that but all of that that still doesn't make Goyf a "must play" or a card that "every deck would run if it was cheaper" which is what started this discussion in the first place I don't disagree that is a must play or every deck would run it, but modern would open up with a lot more Gx decks if it was reasonable. Temur moon seems like a lot of fun, as well as Sultai control, Temur Twin, hell even possibly a Temur delver list. I'd probably play some or all of those lists if I had the cards. I'm pretty deep on UR for modern, Scapeshift would cost me $60 to finish, blue moon would cost me $50? I have UR delver, UR twin, etc. I know its all anecdotal but there are people like me who like modern, have a lot of the staples and just do not have the loving goyfs. If the price from MM15 shifts anywhere near $100 I'm going to pick up a set. I still think $100 is pretty loving unreasonable but its that or just have that hole in my collection and be more limited.
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Mar 8, 2015 04:23
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Went 2-3 with WB Tokens at an IQ today, where I had to play against Splinter Twin three times out of five rounds. That was fun. I lost round 1 to Infect due to play mistakes in both game 1 and 2 that I identified and hopefully learned from. Lost round 2 to Twin, beat a kid with some kind of aggro deck round 3 when he had a game loss, beat Twin round 4, lost to Twin round 5. There's another IQ next Sunday and I felt so bad and mad about Twin that I was thinking of benching WB Tokens for a while, but I don't particularly think any of my other Modern decks are up for the challenge of Splinter Twin. I have Skred Red, Green Stompy, WU Enchantment Prison, and Death and Taxes. I haven't actually had a chance to sleeve and play the Stompy deck yet so I'll probably just bring that for fun, I'll just have to tune the sideboard up to 4 Nature's Claim and 2 Thrun or something.
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Mar 8, 2015 04:40
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jassi007 posted:I don't disagree that is a must play or every deck would run it, but modern would open up with a lot more Gx decks if it was reasonable. Again dude, I agree but that's not the idea I was responding too, someone actually argued "every deck would play goyf if it wasn't 200" no one I recall has denied that Modern would open up, be more more accessible, and be better if Goyf wasn't stupid money. Ciprian Maricon fucked around with this message at 05:22 on Mar 8, 2015 |
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Mar 8, 2015 04:41
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Boco_T posted:Went 2-3 with WB Tokens at an IQ today, where I had to play against Splinter Twin three times out of five rounds. That was fun. I lost round 1 to Infect due to play mistakes in both game 1 and 2 that I identified and hopefully learned from. Lost round 2 to Twin, beat a kid with some kind of aggro deck round 3 when he had a game loss, beat Twin round 4, lost to Twin round 5. Do what I did, make a w/b tokens deck and find space for 4 soul wardens and 4 souls attendants. My list I'm trying online also has 4 serra ascendants and 3-4 Ajani's pridemate, so it's definitely more soul sisters than tokens but it's actually pretty fun to play against twin with. Also have you tried batwing brume in your sideboard? It's a pretty good anti-twin card that a lot of people don't expect. Actually if someone wants to make suggestions for the b/w sisters/tokens thing I'm trying out currently, have at it: http://deckbox.org/sets/922059 Fingers McLongDong fucked around with this message at 05:05 on Mar 8, 2015 |
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