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Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020

Most of the homes in my price range in my market (Seattle metro) are either;

1. Modestly sized homes (~950 sf) that have been renovated for flipping.
2. Medium sized homes (~1450sf) that need some tender love and care.

I’m very cautious towards these renovated flips. I lean towards the medium sized homes that need TLC because I at least see the issues. I’m concerned that just below the surface, the flip properties are a ticking time bomb of lovely housework.

Generally speaking should I be more accepting of flipped properties?

Will inspectors be able to catch the most egregious stuff?

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Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020

Verman posted:

In other news, we put another offer in (I think this makes a dozen, maybe 15) on a house (Seattle) priced at 660, we bid 710 and they accepted. We waived inspection since it already had one, 20k earnest, and 15k low appraisal coverage.

Getting this house was a huge relief but I'm also nervous about ownership. Oh well gently caress it. Let's ride this crazy train.
Good luck friend. Can you explain your process for deciding to waive the inspection?

Ornery and Hornery fucked around with this message at 15:51 on Apr 20, 2021

Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020

laxbro posted:

Motronic and GGGC with some good posting.

I was in a “must buy” frenzy about 6 months ago until I got a healthy dose of reality from reading this thread and running the numbers. On first glance it looked like I could afford to buy but when I really looked at all the costs and worst case scenarios it was clear that I would be house poor even with a lower tiered house in my desired area.

I’ll rent for now and revisit buying when the finances are an afterthought.


Bolded is where I’m at.

Unfortunately I’m in one of the hottest real estate markets in the country and I suspect the cost of housing is going to go up faster than my income.

Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020

Motronic, I really appreciate your posts.

Thank you friend :)

Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020

There's a lot of caution against buying a home right now because of unsustainable prices.

But in hot markets, like SF, NYC, Boston, etc. Isn't it now or never?

I was looking at housing prices during the 2008 crash for these hot areas. Assuming you bought at the absolute peak before the crash, you still made your equity back in ~6 years.

That doesn't seem terrible? Assuming you want to live in the house for a decade.

And now the equity is even higher.

I realize this is a high-level, simple question and I'm probably missing something obvious.

Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020

Pilfered Pallbearers posted:

I guess my question is why do you care?

If you’re thinking you’re buying a house as an investment, IMO you’re looking at it wrong. If you’re buying a place to live who gives a gently caress what it’s worth in 5 years.

That's precisely my point. If I just want to live somewhere, the price change in 5 years is (almost) meaningless.

And over 30 years, the pricing of housing in a currently hot market is still likely to be a positive yield because there's generally such a tremendous deficit of housing supply.

Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020

Assuming you can find something within your risk tolerance for price, and that you want to actually live in the property for a bit, I think it’s absolutely correct to try and buy as soon as possible if you live in a hot market.

Like, the Seattle area has seen an average price increase of over 6% annually for nearly a decade. If you buy now, and the market crashes in 2 years, then you still bought before the peak and eventually the price will continue to rise over the long term.

There’s simply too much demand with too many high income earners.

Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020

Verman posted:

Take your budget and go into redfin/Zillow and look in the areas you want to live in. Filter by houses sold and make sure it's for 2021. Look at the sold price, then look at the asking price...

How do I compare the initial asking price to the final sold price?

All I see on these sites are the final sold price. It looks like any listing price is updated to match the sold price once the website gets wind of the sale.

Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020

The last 13 homes I’ve followed up on were bought without inspections.

When do they implode?

Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020

Does anybody recall a research paper or long form article about how buying a house isn’t actually more profitable for retirement than investing?

It compares the complete cost of homeownership and repair versus the opportunity cost of investing that money.

Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020

Motronic posted:

There are many, and for anyone paying attention it's so drat obvious it barely needs an article.

Are you talking about this one maybe? https://jlcollinsnh.com/2013/05/29/why-your-house-is-a-terrible-investment/

I appreciate the article but that wasn’t the one I was thinking of.

You are right that it’s super obvious, but a lot of people have been programmed to think they need to buy a DSFH for their retirement investment.

I need an article from a university or well respected publication because the people I’m trying to educate won’t take the argument seriously otherwise (yes I realize that it’s super dumb, trust me it’s frustrating for me).

I’ll keep searching!

Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020

Motronic posted:

Best of luck. This doesn't sound like someone who's going to be convinced by things like facts or logic.

You are at least half correct, my friend.

Thank you for your well wishes as I journey this frustrating path.

Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020

Housing prices in the community I consider home have escaped my income and it likely my earnings will never catch up.

Oh well. I enjoy reading about the adventures and happiness of you goons :)

Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020

therobit posted:

I thought this in 2007. I bought a place in 2013. Focus on increasing your income and you will probably be able to eventually.

I hope so. I’m not in a high compensation profession like programmer or medicine. And I live in a place where cost of housing goes up % more than my raise %s.

Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020

Anonymous Zebra posted:

My own biases are abound in this take, but my stance is that if you are in an apartment situation where you are happy, your next step should not be to dump that in order to sink a mortgage on a thing that's no bigger and also shittier for you financially. Like, just look for a better apartment if you have extra cash to burn on upgrading your living situation, but don't want to live in a bigger living space. Just my take.

Yah that usually sounds good.

My main goal for buying is to lock in the cost of housing for the long term. Otherwise rent keeps on the rise…

Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020

spwrozek posted:

But association dues and taxes never go up.... and you surely don't pay for the hot water heater when it fails....

Your point is well taken.

I’m in one of the hottest markets in the country.

Locking in a sustainable rent would be great because I want to live here forever, it’s the community I love.

Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020

CongoJack posted:

Dues and taxes increase by 10%; like $100 a month.

New water heater costs $2500 and lasts 10 years: like $21 a month.

Rent increases by 10%: about $200 a month.

Renting is not throwing your money away at all, it's really nice to have the flexibility and have someone else responsible for maintenance. But that mortgage amount won't change and it's nice to be paying 1800 a month when rent for a similar place is 2000 a month and rising every year.

Yeah, my thoughts exactly.

Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020

*sitting in a rocking chair on a saloon porch*

Any day now the housing market will crash and I’ll be able to afford a home.

Any day now.

*more rocking*

Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020

Any hot tips for finding a good realtor?

Goon-approved is always my preference?

I have a decent realtor that a friend thinks did a good job. But my friend acknowledged that this is the first realtor they ever worked with.

The first few posts in this thread are decent but there are some dead links and the info is old.

Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020

How far away from highways and busy roads does a house need to be to avoid most of the nasty pollution?

How much did y’all weigh “distance from air polluters” in your search?

I recognize that it’s 2022 and there’s pollution and plastic everywhere.

Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020

canyoneer posted:

I don't know if that's really answerable with a rule of thumb, because a lot will depend on weather patterns and geography. Check the air quality index for a zip, and you can browse on a map for different monitoring stations

https://www.airnow.gov/

Nice

Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020

Motronic posted:

Realtalk: you reset your expectations of what you think you can afford or you sit this market out.

That's how this works.

Verman posted:

Your market will probably dictate some of this for you. Certain markets are hot and still continue to be so for the foreseeable future. In Seattle, we worried the market would outpace our savings.

I’m in a hot market. I know you can’t time the market but it seems unlikely that my hot market will cool down anytime soon. Certainly home prices are rising faster than my purchasing power.

I think I have to sit this market out, for the rest of my life. Which sucks because this market is my home :smith:

Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020

How did you scamps weigh size/quality of home vs location of home?

My budget is limited and I live in an expensive place of the country.

I found some nice condos, with pleasant views, and around 1000 sf, but located in a meh neighborhood. Nothing is within a 25 minute walk. However, the condos are situated in a convenient central-ish part of the city if you are willing to drive.

Otherwise to find something in a nicer neighborhood I’d probably have to get a much smaller place (600sf maybe).

Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020

AHH F/UGH posted:

Can't recommend vinyl plank enough if you're into it. It's been amazing so far. Quieter than hardwood and tile, and warmer to the touch as well. Just make sure to get a pattern that doesn't look like planks, one that blends together is best. My cats also love to cutesy roll and tumble all over it too for some reason.

Neato!

What pattern did you choose, if not wood? Ceramic?

Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020

BaseballPCHiker posted:

Size was next on our list. We had to have enough room for kids, an office, etc. You mentioned 600 sq feet for the nicer areas you're looking at. Would that size last you 5+ years? Do you think you're likely to outgrow that size anytime soon?

I’m likely to be in whatever place I buy for 15+ years. I like my community and I want to stay here.

Housing prices are going up way faster than my salary ever will. I basically have this short window of opportunity to buy and then that’s that.

The size question is especially interesting to me because I’m talking about a range of 550 sf to like 1100 sf. Most of the size discussions I’ve found online are very wealthy people discussing the difference between like 2500 sf and 5000 sf. I definitely don’t need that much space.


Oh; I’m likely never having kids but it’d be nice to have a space big enough that if a partner wanted to move in, there’d be enough space for some alone time.

Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020

What reports do I need to analyze when looking at a condo?

Can I pull those reports or do I need a real estate agent to do so?

Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020

spwrozek posted:

The declarations, financials, rules, meeting minutes.

You usually can't get any of this until you have an offer accepted. A contingency to get out of the deal if these are bad is very important.

:ohdear:

Dang, well that complicates things a bit.

Thank you for the answer!

Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020

A ton of remodeled flips around here are very rough shod. Would not recommend.

Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020

1st_Panzer_Div. posted:

I used non-quantitative terms as everything will be relative to national impact - whether we have a crash & recession vs a small 1-2 year price dropping national. While exact markets are very difficult to price out, there are a few things that hold true.

Markets drops #'s and my confidence (based on how much experience I have researching that market) - this is housing, not condos.

Seattle: +5%, 99% Conf
SF: +0%, 99% Conf
Phoenix: -5 to +5%, 80% Conf
PDX: -10% to -20%, 75% Conf
Sacramento: -10 to -30%, 60% Conf
LA: -10 to -25%, 50% Conf
San Diego: -15 to -30%, 50% Conf


This are numbers for a bubble popping in the next 1-3 years, not what I actually anticipate overall. My best national guess is that the market doesn't pop in the next 1-3 years, rather moderate markets level out in pricing and hot markets drop to 2-3x CPI rates of increase. I think Phoenix and Portland are the two cities on the west that are most likely to increase the most in the next 5 years.

I don’t know your methods or source data… but seems to me like there’s no hope?

Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020

If I had the income that I do now, but a year ago, I may have been able to buy a home.

Missed the window by this much!

I love posting in this thread and I will continue to do so.

Got a meeting with my lender tomorrow so we will see.

Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020

Panzer what job do you do? You have so much knowledge.

Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020

I blame the Ivy leagues

Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020

Leperflesh posted:

There's also a whole lot of people rushing to get in now because they believe interest rates are going to keep rising; and there's a lot of people who don't understand what inflation really means when it comes to the value of the dollar.

Prices that rose by 8.5% over the past 12 months are actually flat after adjusting for inflation. If you see a price that is $100k more than that, that $100k is actually only $85k more in April 2021 dollars. I know everyone here theoretically understands inflation but it can be really hard to adjust your gut sense of "how much money is this amount, really."

And you know what?


It was 7% the prior year, too.

Hot areas are definitely going up by more than inflation, though.

I mean you are right in terms of real value and inflation, but peoples wages aren’t necessarily keeping up anyway so houses are de facto still more expensive.

When is the housing crash let me buy a home :mad:

Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020

BaseballPCHiker posted:

We looked for 6 months, had to go non-contingent, forgo inspection, and went 20% over for the house we finally got.

The issue is that a lot of people don’t have the luxury of just going “20% over”.

Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020

Motronic posted:

Over ASKING, not over BUDGET. This is a matter of dealing with the realities of the market and how things are priced in that market.

If one refuses to acknowledge that the listing price of homes in your area is typically 20% low compared to the successful purchase price and keeps looking at homes with a listing price at or near the top of your budget it's pretty much willful ignorance at that point.

My point is that the ASKING amount is at the top of, or over, the BUDGET amount for many people.

Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020

Arsenic Lupin posted:

Tell us about your hidden gem and why it was hidden!

Yeah :)

Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020

Having Kids? I’m this economy!??

My realtor said that the next few months are when the most inventory will hit the market. So I guess it’s now or never for me. There are almost no housing options in my price range so I just gotta be super diligent and be prepared for heartbreak when a different offer is accepted.

Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020

1st_Panzer_Div. posted:

As noted in my last post - LA looks to have just seen a price drop, short term prices are a major wildcard, rising rates are nearly guaranteed.

???

https://www.redfin.com/city/11203/CA/Los-Angeles/housing-market

Seems like prices are still going up Up UP!!!!

Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020

KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:

the latter is certainly true but fundamentally there is a huge supply problem driven by a bunch of different factors which is much more of an issue than investment firm activity in markets

Yeah, there’s a whole lot of factors going into housing in affordability.

But ultimately we can’t really have a society where everyone gets clean safe housing near their jobs AND have a privatized housing market.

As long as houses are an investment vehicle there will always be pressure towards unaffordability.

Tldr: socialize housing



I am still on the lookout for housing in Seattle. Everything seems to be $10k-$50k over my budget. If there isn’t a crash in the next few months then it seems like I’ll be priced out forever.

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Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020

Look at this palace

ultrafilter posted:



I don't know how official any of the floor plans out there are but they're all pretty consistent.

When the show came out it was realistic for the family to live in a house like this on Homer's salary.

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