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Rad Russian
Aug 15, 2007

Soviet Power Supreme!

cgeq posted:

I've been looking at this since last year as well. It only came to my intention because of companies I work for using the services. I've used Microsoft and Okta for Identity Management (and now I realize I've conflated endpoint security with identity management). Didn't see too much to invest there as far as public companies go and I already had Microsoft.

I don't have much direct experience with info sec but I'd love to learn more or just get opinions from people who actually interact with it more.

VMware now owns Carbon Black (used to be CBLK), CRWD is available to trade, SentinelOne announced IPO for later this year. These are the top 3 products imo.

Okta is in identity space. Their only true competition (outside of using Google, Microsoft, or AWS directly) is JumpCloud which I can't imagine IPOing for another couple of years. Although JumpCloud is being floated as a SPAC target on some lists.

Rad Russian fucked around with this message at 02:50 on Feb 28, 2021

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Baddog
May 12, 2001

Uranium 235 posted:

All according to tradervue.com which is what I use to analyze my trades

I only do about 20-30 trades a month right now, mostly over 2-3 week time-frames. Kinda curious what sort of analysis this might give me though. I'm guessing it's easy to import a dump from any major broker? I do options, so looks like I'd need the top flight package.

I should just sign up for the trial eh.

Baddog fucked around with this message at 03:19 on Feb 28, 2021

pmchem
Jan 22, 2010


lol old man gives no fucks

https://twitter.com/srussolillo/status/1365068207825051648?s=20

Pillowpants
Aug 5, 2006
Looks like I may have to pull my money out of this in order to pay for a lawyer. poo poo

Kill All Cops
Apr 11, 2007


Pacheco de Chocobo



Hell Gem
does looking at candles all day and making trades when the MACD hits the appropriate crossing over points make u a day trader? asking in advance tia

Shammypants
May 25, 2004

Let me tell you about true luxury.

Kill All Cops posted:

does looking at candles all day and making trades when the MACD hits the appropriate crossing over points make u a day trader? asking in advance tia

I’m sorry magic crystals and astrology what?

Cacafuego
Jul 22, 2007

Pillowpants posted:

Looks like I may have to pull my money out of this in order to pay for a lawyer. poo poo

Uhh, go on...

Tokyo Sex Whale
Oct 9, 2012

"My butt smells like vanilla ice cream"
Positions:

CLF @ 4.54. I'm a believer for the long term. Haven't added any since it was over 8. Did my own DCF a couple years ago before all the acquisitions and came up with $32. Hated the AKS merger and considered selling out but the Arcelor Mittal deal was fine and glad I didn't. Also own bonds bought during the COVID crash. I bought shares too but would've been better off throwing it all into shares.
ERUS @ $34.50. Consider it a short dollar/long energy play.
LUMN@ $13.74. Averaged down at some point. Feel like it's undervalued on the one hand and also like I should have got out when it spiked because it's never going up. Definitely thought about it. Been bagholding for awhile.
PH @ $35. The only thing I have leftover from the GFC and I personally hate the company, really hate, like on a personal and visceral level, but don't want to take the tax hit.
AGX @ 34.25. Actually better return than it looks because they do special dividends a lot. Whenever I run a value screen it always shows up.
TELL @ 3.34. It's either going to 30 in the next 3 years or 0. Not selling, will maybe add under 1 if it doesn't look like it's going to 0. Otherwise just sitting.
CODI @ 18.23. I really don't have a price target on this but it's got a rich dividend and has been a consistent slow riser for me so haven't really considered selling.
LPI bonds. Leftover from a bond buying spree during the covid crash. Have sold everything else since aside from CLF. 3-bagger but would've been better off buying shares.
PRU @ 63.58
ADM @ 51.45
FSNB.U @ 10.04. Just FOMO on SPACs and it was close to NAV.
GILD March 12 puts sold for $65 @ $1.50. I'll let these get assigned. I like, kind of believe in them, and trade in and out all the time.
JNK $100 puts, June 2021 @ $.83. Always short JNK.
QQQ 3/5 $334 calls @ .18. Bought late Friday. We're either at the start of a crash or there's going to be a 8% jump in 2 days soon. Tea leaves make me think Nasdaq's the best bet for a big bounce. IWM's my short target though no positions at the moment.

I have vanguard total market funds and world value funds too but probably not as much as a responsible person would.

pmchem
Jan 22, 2010


amusing second-order effect success story that I think we all missed last year:

https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=ALGN&ty=c&p=d&b=1

quote from around latest earnings report

quote:

Align Technology stock soared in Thursday morning trading after the company's fourth-quarter results topped analyst expectations.
Shares of Align (TICKER: ALGN), maker of Invisalign teeth straighteners, jumped more than 15% after Thursday's market open. The company reported late Wednesday that fourth-quarter sales hit a record $834.5 million , marking a 28.4% jump from the prior year's fourth quarter. GAAP earnings came in at $2.00 per share, up from $1.53 per share last year.
Align has been somewhat of a surprise work-from-home success story over the last year. Many dentist offices were closed during the early part of the pandemic, implying that the company would have problems getting to customers. But the company saw a surge in demand in the third and fourth quarters as workers -- perhaps tired of seeing their crooked smiles on Zoom calls -- rushed to their dentist's office to get straighter teeth. The so-called "Zoom effect" and its impact on Align was even recently highlighted in Town & Country magazine .
Align's share price nearly doubled in 2020.
But it isn't just adults flocking to the service to fix their smiles. Align has also been running campaigns targeting teenagers to drive awareness of Invisalign as an alternative to metal braces. It tapped social media influencers like Charli D' Amelio , Marsai Martin, and Christina Milian for its advertising. Align said that 30.3% of total Invisalign cases were for teens or younger, marking an 11.5% increase from 2019.
And while Align benefited in the back half of last year from pent-up demand and new users, it sees that momentum continuing into 2021. Management told analysts on Wednesday that the company was encouraged by January orders.

what's gonna be the equivalent of that once everyone has to... interact with people in-person again?

pmchem fucked around with this message at 04:47 on Feb 28, 2021

Gaius Marius
Oct 9, 2012

Cologone/Perfume perhaps? Maybe pants in general. People putting on weight in lockdown and need all new wardrobes.

pmchem
Jan 22, 2010


Gaius Marius posted:

Cologone/Perfume perhaps? Maybe pants in general. People putting on weight in lockdown and need all new wardrobes.

perfume is an interesting question mark, given covid's side effect of ruining some peoples' sense of smell

do sales suffer as a result because nobody can tell they're wearing it? gain because people overdo it so they can actually smell it? heh.

I've seen some twitter chatter about $COTY as a possible value play, maybe that is one reason why:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coty_Inc.
https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=COTY

Gaius Marius
Oct 9, 2012

It looks like they've got a stake with Kim Kardasian too. That names gonna be on the headlines for awhile with the divorce, I think that'll be a positive

And makeup sales should be up when restrictions are lifted and people can start going on real dates again.

Gaius Marius fucked around with this message at 05:14 on Feb 28, 2021

UnfurledSails
Sep 1, 2011

short ZM would be my instinctive answer

Traveler
Sep 13, 2006
Nothing can go wrong from shorting, you sell high and buy low. It's a win win strategy

Pillowpants
Aug 5, 2006

Cacafuego posted:

Uhh, go on...

I was sued for libel and won but he appealed it AND filed in a new state

Ola
Jul 19, 2004

Ola posted:

Here's a crypto topic that should be uncontentious. BTC as a sentiment proxy before ES and NQ opens again tomorrow. Right now it's up around 4% since markets closed, will it predict a green or red futures open?

Turned down again, -1.23% since Friday close, to maintain a downward trend from the ATH on the 21st. Has swung through +4% and -3%, well within normal volatility.

gay picnic defence
Oct 5, 2009


I'M CONCERNED ABOUT A NUMBER OF THINGS

Ola posted:

Give me an example where unit cost and production volume doesn't matter. Formula 1?

e: slamming Tesla in the rest of your post misses the post, the rest of the car industry is even further away from the 3D printing you are arguing for, at every level of quality.

The 3D printing company I've got shares in is focused more on aerospace and other low volume, high performance stuff like printing the tools used for higher volume manufacturing. They also see their machines as being a virtual warehouse where they can print a replacement part on demand rather than having to keep stock on hand. I doubt they'll ever be a massive company but I can definitely see a market for the things they're doing.

https://www.amaero.com.au/

Ola
Jul 19, 2004

gay picnic defence posted:

The 3D printing company I've got shares in is focused more on aerospace and other low volume, high performance stuff like printing the tools used for higher volume manufacturing. They also see their machines as being a virtual warehouse where they can print a replacement part on demand rather than having to keep stock on hand. I doubt they'll ever be a massive company but I can definitely see a market for the things they're doing.

https://www.amaero.com.au/

Yes, high tech niche stuff sounds like a great application. It might be a very good investment even if the company doesn't become the next Tesla or whatever.

Ola fucked around with this message at 11:25 on Feb 28, 2021

gay picnic defence
Oct 5, 2009


I'M CONCERNED ABOUT A NUMBER OF THINGS

Ola posted:

Yes, high tech niche stuff sounds like a great application. It might be a very good investment even if the company doesn't become the next Tesla or whatever.

I'm reasonably hopeful about their prospects. A couple of big companies like Boeing have taken an interest in their machines, but they haven't had any big sales orders come through yet unfortunately.

Ragnar Gunvald
May 13, 2015

Cool and good.
I swear to loving god, if the UK government scrap the tax free bonus on capital gains tax im going to be furious.

The first time in my life I have some actual savings thanks to investing, i can actually seen myself buying a house in London in a couple of years if I can keep this up. It makes perfect sense it will now get taxed to gently caress.

vonManstein
Nov 5, 2006

Ragnar Gunvald posted:

I swear to loving god, if the UK government scrap the tax free bonus on capital gains tax im going to be furious.

The first time in my life I have some actual savings thanks to investing, i can actually seen myself buying a house in London in a couple of years if I can keep this up. It makes perfect sense it will now get taxed to gently caress.

Are you using your ISA allowance to its full extent? 20k p.a. is a good amount, then use a GIA for anything else. Of course it doesn't completely eliminate any GCT on realised gains about 12k p.a. though.

pmchem
Jan 22, 2010


UnfurledSails posted:

short ZM would be my instinctive answer

trades like short ZM are probably correct, but that company has huge amounts of FCF and the trade is obvious

the very best trades to sniff out (imo) are just one step away from being obvious, because they make easy sense in hindsight. ALGN was such a trade but I / most people on earth didn't brainstorm it.

stupid puma
Apr 25, 2005

Rad Russian posted:

VMware now owns Carbon Black (used to be CBLK), CRWD is available to trade, SentinelOne announced IPO for later this year. These are the top 3 products imo.

Okta is in identity space. Their only true competition (outside of using Google, Microsoft, or AWS directly) is JumpCloud which I can't imagine IPOing for another couple of years. Although JumpCloud is being floated as a SPAC target on some lists.

I work in IT security but I need to start doing some more research from an investing perspective.

Endpoint security is going to be huge over the next few years imo. I was just working on a least privilege management service deal and that area is going to blow up with everyone working from home now. I’m looking at CyberArk as one of the only publicly trade companies in that space at the moment but I’m going to do some research to see if it makes sense to invest there.

Ragnar Gunvald
May 13, 2015

Cool and good.

vonManstein posted:

Are you using your ISA allowance to its full extent? 20k p.a. is a good amount, then use a GIA for anything else. Of course it doesn't completely eliminate any GCT on realised gains about 12k p.a. though.

I'm actually not. I used an ISA previously and I couldn't get into some trades I wanted to. Something to do with currency or listings or something. I can't remember as it was when I just got interested in this stuff.

I ended up switching over to just a normal account and playing with the CGT tax free limits.

If they change the rules again next week I shall have to check out an ISA again I guess.

Ragnar Gunvald
May 13, 2015

Cool and good.

Ragnar Gunvald posted:

I'm actually not. I used an ISA previously and I couldn't get into some trades I wanted to. Something to do with currency or listings or something. I can't remember as it was when I just got interested in this stuff.

I ended up switching over to just a normal account and playing with the CGT tax free limits.

If they change the rules again next week I shall have to check out an ISA again I guess.

Worth pointing out they're talking about taking the 12k on a GIA down to 2k.

cgeq
Jun 5, 2004

Rad Russian posted:

VMware now owns Carbon Black (used to be CBLK), CRWD is available to trade, SentinelOne announced IPO for later this year. These are the top 3 products imo.

Okta is in identity space. Their only true competition (outside of using Google, Microsoft, or AWS directly) is JumpCloud which I can't imagine IPOing for another couple of years. Although JumpCloud is being floated as a SPAC target on some lists.

Thanks! I forgot about AWS. I have a single share of Amazon, but I'd rather get out since I see unionization as inevitable and that'll make investors flee (at least short term).

Bummer about SentinelOne, I was hoping it would go the SPAC route.

From what everyone I talk to says, WFH won't be going away completely even post-COVID (if there is such a thing). I guess their main future lies in the arms race against hackers/state actors and being adopted by more smaller companies? Or just growing along with their current client base?

melon cat
Jan 21, 2010

Nap Ghost
https://twitter.com/StockJabber/status/1365891482192916480?s=19
"Management, concentration, and non-diversification risk"

Oh, Cathie. :allears:

Pillowpants
Aug 5, 2006

cgeq posted:

Thanks! I forgot about AWS. I have a single share of Amazon, but I'd rather get out since I see unionization as inevitable and that'll make investors flee (at least short term).

Bummer about SentinelOne, I was hoping it would go the SPAC route.

From what everyone I talk to says, WFH won't be going away completely even post-COVID (if there is such a thing). I guess their main future lies in the arms race against hackers/state actors and being adopted by more smaller companies? Or just growing along with their current client base?

So, I work for a large international company. It looks like our European HQ has already decided to move into a smaller office on a perm base. In the US, they’re setting people up on three levels depending on the job. My HR role will be exclusively WFH while our engineering team has to be in the office 2-3 days a week. Seems to be a conversation a lot of companies are having

Le Saboteur
Dec 5, 2007

I hear you wish to ball, adventurer..

stupid puma posted:

I work in IT security but I need to start doing some more research from an investing perspective.

Endpoint security is going to be huge over the next few years imo. I was just working on a least privilege management service deal and that area is going to blow up with everyone working from home now. I’m looking at CyberArk as one of the only publicly trade companies in that space at the moment but I’m going to do some research to see if it makes sense to invest there.

Oh yeah I'll be taking a look at CyberArk. I also found an Index Fund under the CYBR stock ticker symbol (Evolve Cyber Security Index Fund) in Canada that covers all the publicly available companies so that could also be a nice safe(r) bet for the future.

Baddog
May 12, 2001
Speaking of tesla, wsj review of VW's new EV says it's five years behind.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/volkswagen-id-4-should-tesla-worry-about-this-new-electric-rival-11614341784?mod=e2tw

Isn't vw supposed to be the closest competitor? I know tesla is an expensive stock. But how many years does it take for these incompetent old companies to make up a five year gap? They've been "five years behind" for how many years now? Remember american car companies "innovation" used to be adding cupholders to the back seat.

Space Fish
Oct 14, 2008

The original Big Tuna.


punk rebel ecks posted:

What do you all think of Nintendo stock? I can't imagine it will go much higher because the company is solely a console manufacturer first and foremost. Outside of revisions I can't see their price rising.

On the one hand, yes, Nintendo's bread and butter is in game consoles, software for their consoles, and licensing the poo poo out of their most popular IPs. On those fronts, there is plenty of room for optimism. Three new Pokemon games for the Switch are in the works (on an infinite line of Pokemon games, cool). Each one is a license to print money and will keep millennial and child interest in plushies, keychains, hats, and tshirts at healthy levels. An HD remake of a Wii-era Legend of Zelda game is on the way this year, though it probably won't blow up the sales charts compared to Breath of the Wild 2. Fan speculation predicts that a Switch successor/upgrade will drop in 2022 to take advantage of high-profile games scheduled for that year. Nintendo are masters of attractive iterative features, and I have no doubt they'll make the "Super Switch" juuuust better enough than the original that gamers will shell out hundreds to get one and make their games a little prettier or more fun(ctional).

Don't underestimate Nintendo's growing presence in mobile gaming, though. Mario, Mario Kart, Pokemon Go/Cafe, Animal Crossing, Fire Emblem... people drop serious bank on in-game purchases. A dumber, short-term-only Nintendo would go all-in on phone games and squeeze every addict's penny from them, but they tend to function as "lite" entry points for buying the console and related games... and signing up for the Nintendo Online subscription for online play (Splatoon 3 gonna be lit)... and buying limited-time games on their digital eshop platform... and extra characters for Smash Bros... don't forget some extra controllers so friends/family can all play together! Lots of revenue streams and franchise hooks, is what I'm saying. And that's without considering the Super Nintendo World theme park that launched in Japan and will go up in Universal Studios Hollywood, Orlando, and Singapore. People think Disney parks will explode post-vaccination? Soon there'll be a theme park based on a bunch of Switch games people were playing in quarantine for the past year!

I hear the new Xbox and Playstation can play 4k blu-rays now, though. At least, some models can.

Edit: Historically, Nintendo has had boom/bust periods, though they always engineer their products so that they ultimately turn a profit, even when they're "losing" a given console war. I think Nintendo's still in the middle of this booming generation cycle and have at least a couple more strong years ahead of them.

Space Fish fucked around with this message at 17:26 on Feb 28, 2021

Rad Russian
Aug 15, 2007

Soviet Power Supreme!

Le Saboteur posted:

I also found an Index Fund under the CYBR stock ticker symbol (Evolve Cyber Security Index Fund) in Canada that covers all the publicly available companies so that could also be a nice safe(r) bet for the future.

Yeah, that's a really nice reference list of cybersec adjacent companies for people to research. Although it's bizarre that they include Fastly and not Cloudflare (should be the other way or both). Also, I assume they'll add a significant position in SentinelOne once that's public.

The next big thing in this space is SDP/zero-trust (to replace old school VPNs). But seems to be hard to invest in this until more companies go public/get acquired because it's so new. Fyde just got acquired by Barracuda, however Barracuda is private. If Barracuda gets SPAC'ed, that'll be a good one.

Rad Russian fucked around with this message at 18:18 on Feb 28, 2021

punk rebel ecks
Dec 11, 2010

A shitty post? This calls for a dance of deduction.

Space Fish posted:

Edit: Historically, Nintendo has had boom/bust periods, though they always engineer their products so that they ultimately turn a profit, even when they're "losing" a given console war. I think Nintendo's still in the middle of this booming generation cycle and have at least a couple more strong years ahead of them.

Lots of good information. I may bite with Nintendo again if their stock goes down to near $65. I just feel it's a bit overpriced now due to uncertainty (was the relatively weak "big" Direct due to them not having anything to show or them saving things for a big E3 summer time reveal?).

I also agree that Nintendo would be a phenomenal buy when they release a dud consoles like the Gamecube or Wii U. They've followed up being shunned by the industry with breakout cultural milestone successes three times now.

Srice
Sep 11, 2011

tbh even when Nintendo releases a dud console they've always had massive handheld sales to compensate. Now that they're one and the same I don't see them leaving that very lucrative niche anytime soon.

The Anime Liker
Aug 8, 2009

by VideoGames

Srice posted:

tbh even when Nintendo releases a dud console they've always had massive handheld sales to compensate. Now that they're one and the same I don't see them leaving that very lucrative niche anytime soon.

I legitimately wanted to buy a boatload of Nintendo when it "tanked" in February and I'm so mad I didn't.

They're like Apple at this point. They're already profitable with just the core products, but they have an unstoppable money printing machine with accessories and revisions.

Kill All Cops
Apr 11, 2007


Pacheco de Chocobo



Hell Gem
The switch is such a versatile little machine, with the labo series and the mario kart games Nintendo are doing some really nice R&D with it and selling accessories at a premium during the process. Not to mention their controllers break pretty easily. It's also a Motley Fool recommendation along with Activision Blizzard for this week.

The Anime Liker
Aug 8, 2009

by VideoGames
There's also a ludicrous amount of hype for the Switch Pro and the new virtual console and more rereleases and sequels.

Between that and their ever-expanding covid shut-in player base, I would bet the farm they're going to have an absolute bonkers annual earnings report.

Jenkl
Aug 5, 2008

This post needs at least three times more shit!

Rad Russian posted:

Yeah, that's a really nice reference list of cybersec adjacent companies for people to research. Although it's bizarre that they include Fastly and not Cloudflare (should be the other way or both). Also, I assume they'll add a significant position in SentinelOne once that's public.

The next big thing in this space is SDP/zero-trust (to replace old school VPNs). But seems to be hard to invest in this until more companies go public/get acquired because it's so new. Fyde just got acquired by Barracuda, however Barracuda is private. If Barracuda gets SPAC'ed, that'll be a good one.

I'd love to hear more on sdp/zero-trust. Any resources you'd recommend?

punk rebel ecks
Dec 11, 2010

A shitty post? This calls for a dance of deduction.

A HORNY SWEARENGEN posted:

I legitimately wanted to buy a boatload of Nintendo when it "tanked" in February and I'm so mad I didn't.

They're like Apple at this point. They're already profitable with just the core products, but they have an unstoppable money printing machine with accessories and revisions.

A HORNY SWEARENGEN posted:

There's also a ludicrous amount of hype for the Switch Pro and the new virtual console and more rereleases and sequels.

Between that and their ever-expanding covid shut-in player base, I would bet the farm they're going to have an absolute bonkers annual earnings report.

These are good points. I'm just not as bullish since I can't see them releasing another product besides the Switch.

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The Anime Liker
Aug 8, 2009

by VideoGames
I mean, I'd wait for a big dip if you're looking to get rich quick, but let's not pretend Switch 2, Pokemon, Mario Kart 9, Zelda 37 part 2, etc. aren't going to make more money than God.

Apple, Amazon and Nintendo are basically invincible at this point and if I had that kind of money I wouldn't scoff at owning a hundred shares of any of them.

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