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Guess it's gonna be another week of SPY being hot garbage
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Jan 18, 2022 18:59
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Number bad today
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Jan 18, 2022 19:16
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my stock losses are larger than my job earnings guess I can finally quit my job
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Jan 18, 2022 19:16
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HCFJ posted:my stock losses are larger than my job earnings guess I can finally quit my job Ideally your stocks are going both up and down and overall you end up with like +15% at the end of the year*. Since you're likely to get some 2% days and several 1% days that means lots of chop! *This is completely bullshit average for an average year and probably not even the right number anymore. compare yourself to SPY and QQQ to see how you are doing so far.
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Jan 18, 2022 20:07
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I perfectly timed getting out of DWAC a couple weeks ago (the Trump not-a-scam media SPAC) as it was trading sideways in the $50 range for several months. As of today it is trading in the high $80s. Should have trusted my first instinct that too many people will try to short the stock as a sure thing and trigger an inevitable short squeeze. Missed opportunity for bigger gains, but I did profit a fair amount selling overpriced options on it for a couple months.
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Jan 18, 2022 20:36
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Darth TNT posted:The fda still didn’t come through right? Correct. The countdown on $GOON Christmas was reset by a request for more data. The patents are still in place and increasing in number, the clinical trial sites are still generating data, the markets (USA/EU/Asia) are still ripe for widespread adoption, and GOON's partner CriTech has a 100% track record with FDA approvals. Only factor left is time...
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Jan 18, 2022 20:43
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SoFi hit it's 52 week low and just kept/keeps digging way past any kind of $13/$12.80 resistance level, looks like there's some new resistance at $12.10 but who knows what will happen the rest of this week Their projected earnings is Feb 09, curious to see if it peaks again like it did the last couple of earnings reports, or just flatlines NDRA style. I don't think there's any SoFi specific news causing this, it's just growth stocks getting hammered today in the market, but that's only a guess
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Jan 18, 2022 21:29
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Growth stocks have been getting hammered like the whole month dude.
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Jan 18, 2022 21:30
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Increases in interest rates, aka borrowing costs, are a drag on growth future earnings. I don't know how else to say that. TBT bet is positive.
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Jan 18, 2022 21:38
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Hadlock posted:SoFi hit it's 52 week low and just kept/keeps digging way past any kind of $13/$12.80 resistance level, looks like there's some new resistance at $12.10 but who knows what will happen the rest of this week It's my fault, SoFi was destined to be my next bag after PLTR.
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Jan 18, 2022 21:53
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Pretty decent chance those SOFI 12.50P 3/18/22 contracts I sold will be exercised.
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Jan 18, 2022 21:55
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movax posted:It's my fault, SoFi was destined to be my next bag after PLTR. Which also hit it's 52 week low. Fun times.
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Jan 18, 2022 22:17
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Rolo posted:I forgot I’m still holding a NDRA bag from months ago. Everyone still holding or should I just take my huge loss? It can only drop 66 more cents
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Jan 18, 2022 22:19
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Elephanthead posted:It can only drop 66 more cents It gets delisted if it stays under $1, so they are going to reverse split which means they will cut your shares in half quarter whatever and multiply the price by that. You want them to do this instead of getting removed from the market. They can go down so so much more, how do you think UVXY works? It didn't open at 1 billion a share. pixaal fucked around with this message at 22:27 on Jan 18, 2022 |
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Jan 18, 2022 22:22
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pixaal posted:It gets delisted if it stays under $1, so they are going to reverse split which means they will cut your shares in half quarter whatever and multiply the price by that. You want them to do this instead of getting removed from the market. So if I'm holding $16 worth of NDRA and they do a reverse split, that triggers a flat $39 admin fee in a lot of brokerage systems, right. Do they then sell the stock and bill me the balance
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Jan 18, 2022 22:37
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Hadlock posted:So if I'm holding $16 worth of NDRA and they do a reverse split, that triggers a flat $39 admin fee in a lot of brokerage systems, right. Do they then sell the stock and bill me the balance By "a lot of brokerage systems" you mean Etrade, right? I don't think I've heard of anyone else charging that.
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Jan 18, 2022 23:31
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Power of Pecota posted:People with a more technical background - is this good: Details! Details! Why let some numbers get in the way of one of the greatest billion dollar businesses of 2022? The Honey Badger Media website is still up and running so that's gotta be a plus... Vinco Ventures my friend! This stock is predicted to go to $40/share, or is it $400/share? Don't remember... anyway it's gonna be big! BBIG big!!!* *please don't invest your hard earned savings in this. It's junk. Funny money only.
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Jan 18, 2022 23:47
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I think SoFi tried charging me for some spac conversion but I'd have to go digging for it, I think it had to do with warrants. Maybe it is just E-Trade. How do they get away with charging those fees in 2022 Edit it was SoFi communication direct from the company I held stock in: VACQU/UTS VECTOR ACQUISITION CORPORATION UNIT (now rocket lab/RKLB) investor relations posted:THE APPROXIMATE PRICE PER SHARE REDEEMING HOLDERS WILL RECEIVE FOR COMMON So that's something else, just a warning that if you own it through E-Trade, they're gonna gently caress you, nevermind, gently caress E-Trade Hadlock fucked around with this message at 00:06 on Jan 19, 2022 |
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Jan 19, 2022 00:01
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Prime Sinister posted:Pretty decent chance those SOFI 12.50P 3/18/22 contracts I sold will be exercised. Went up $1.75 a share (+14%) in after hours trading just now  Edit went up another $0.60 Double edit: bank charter approved Hadlock fucked around with this message at 00:19 on Jan 19, 2022 |
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Jan 19, 2022 00:12
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Let's see if that can dig out my -50% leaps
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Jan 19, 2022 00:41
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Moonshine Rhyme posted:Let's see if that can dig out my -50% leaps Hey man, at least we have some time before January 2024.
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Jan 19, 2022 00:47
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Moonshine Rhyme posted:Let's see if that can dig out my -50% leaps movax posted:Hey man, at least we have some time before January 2024. Can say this about many of my positions.
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Jan 19, 2022 03:52
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Hadlock posted:SoFi hit it's 52 week low and just kept/keeps digging way past any kind of $13/$12.80 resistance level, looks like there's some new resistance at $12.10 but who knows what will happen the rest of this week Well well well… SoFi got its bank charter today.
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Jan 19, 2022 03:55
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TheWevel posted:Well well well… SoFi got its bank charter today. Had a good laugh that they are apparently now banned from doing from doing any of the crypto related stuff they currently do, unless they receive written permission: https://www.occ.gov/news-issuances/news-releases/2022/nr-occ-2022-4a.pdf
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Jan 19, 2022 04:29
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drk posted:Had a good laugh that they are apparently now banned from doing from doing any of the crypto related stuff they currently do, unless they receive written permission: https://www.occ.gov/news-issuances/news-releases/2022/nr-occ-2022-4a.pdf I'm thinking this applies to the subsidiary bank and not all of SoFi. Or hoping, at least.
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Jan 19, 2022 05:15
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pixaal posted:Always risk the deal fails for one reason or a another. You currently have shares, is just made $18 overnight, it will slowly close that $10 gap as the deal becomes final and draws near. Do you want to keep risking that investment? If the deal busts that will crater to some new lows as people exit that were only in for the arbitrage trade. Artonos posted:After briefly looking into it the expected closing date is Microsoft's 2023 fiscal year. I don't exactly know what that means but you're likely going to have to wait a good chunk of time for the $95 so that has to be priced in somehow. Money that isn't growing isn't worth keeping in the market if it's part of your investments. Srice posted:I personally just sold my shares because hey it's now priced in and the acquisition won't finalize until 2023 so anything could happen in the meantime. I'd rather take a guaranteed profit now instead of waiting for something that may or may not pay off. Regulators may also have concerns approving the deal of this size, as already noted. But Microsoft did show their hand of what they thought a good purchase price was for ATVI. Even if the deal falls through this fares well for Activision in the future. If Kotick finally gets pressured to go that would also be a good thing, as I'm sure a more desirable CEO could be found. Anyhow I'll be watching this stock for further opportunities.
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Jan 19, 2022 05:50
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TheWevel posted:Well well well… SoFi got its bank charter today. Naturally up 16% after hours. When I did not buy any more shares. Wonder what the leaps look like tomorrow…
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Jan 19, 2022 07:28
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So I took the $1.476 billion projected EBITDA with bank charter from this earnings call slide and divided it by the 799.6 million shares and came out with about $1.87, uh I guess that's called paper value, and then multiplied it by a pretty middle of the road 15x P/E and came up with a 2025 price target of $28, did I do that right And yeah the bank license says the bank can't engage in crypto whosit, but sofi owns sofi bank, not the other way around, so there's some speculation that sofi can continue to allow crypto trading via it's investment arm, but like, you might not be able to get margin for crypto as a result? maybe? Just pure speculation. The bank charter is conveniently timed as the very beginning of the 21 day lead up to earnings, past results don't guarantee future results, but one could argue there might be a pattern of peaks and troughs aligning with earnings:  I'll admit I did back up the truck today when it got under $12.40 and picked up two more leaps for half of what they were two weeks ago. I averaged down far enough on my stock that I think if we get to $19, I'll be about even with the spy gains since a year ago. If my $28 number is correct I might get out at $25 and start looking for something new? or maybe it'll just settle at $8.40 for a couple of quarters and I eat some losses on options Of course as was pointed out, growth stocks are getting hammered, could really flatten out any growth that was going to happen in the short term. Or maybe people are looking for a high performing stock in a weak market and will flock to it as a meme stock, and gets a tiny synergy boost from super bowl (probably not)
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Jan 19, 2022 09:32
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Hadlock posted:So I took the $1.476 billion projected EBITDA with bank charter from this earnings call slide and divided it by the 799.6 million shares and came out with about $1.87, uh I guess that's called paper value, and then multiplied it by a pretty middle of the road 15x P/E and came up with a 2025 price target of $28, did I do that right no, you did not. why are you conflating "projected adjusted EBITDA" with trailing GAAP earnings? schwab's GAAP EBIDTA is more than 2x its earnings. "adjusted" EBITDA is a bullshit metric where companies add back in things such as share-based comp. there is about zero chance of sofi having both a p/e of 15 and a price of $28 in 2025.
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Jan 19, 2022 12:58
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Banks usually trade at a trailing P/E of like 7-10 too. Highest forward P/E I see is WFC at like 14.8.
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Jan 19, 2022 14:35
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Looks like Sofi is bleeding out the gains from the jump now
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Jan 19, 2022 15:44
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oh my god, are we about to make money in a bear market ?
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Jan 19, 2022 16:43
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Have not really dabbled in options much but I bought a few 3/18 70p on ARKK last week and lol
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Jan 19, 2022 16:57
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pmchem posted:there is about zero chance of sofi having both a p/e of 15 and a price of $28 in 2025. 52 wk high is $28.26 
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Jan 19, 2022 20:56
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Hadlock posted:52 wk high is $28.26 and its p/e?
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Jan 19, 2022 21:42
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Man Musk posted:oh my god, are we about to make money in a bear market ? the nasdaq just barely entered correction territory today. the last decade has apparently wiped away our collective memory of what a true bear market actually feels like
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Jan 19, 2022 22:29
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What caused the market to tank at around 1pm that wasn't already going on?
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Jan 19, 2022 22:31
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The 10 year t-bill rate hit 1.9 briefly. I think that's it.
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Jan 19, 2022 23:24
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pmchem posted:and its p/e? My point was that you're saying the chances of it going to 28 are "almost zero" is a bit disingenuous since that point has already been proven definitively in the affirmative. Not arguing with the rest of your math since that seems at least partially well grounded
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Jan 19, 2022 23:24
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Hadlock posted:My point was that you're saying the chances of it going to 28 are "almost zero" is a bit disingenuous since that point has already been proven definitively in the affirmative. Not arguing with the rest of your math since that seems at least partially well grounded my statement was not an "either/or": it was an "and". "there is about zero chance of sofi having both a p/e of 15 and a price of $28 in 2025." any random small/mid-cap can get briefly zerged and zoom up 300% in price; I think we can all agree on that after 2021. I'm saying sofi as a business will not be generating the earnings to support the p/e ratio you used as a justification in your valuation estimate, at the price target you put on the stock.
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Jan 19, 2022 23:58
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