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AHH F/UGH posted:Make that -2.1% What's your position?
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Oct 30, 2020 08:38
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AHH F/UGH posted:Make that -2.1% I think your calls are very smart. I don't have the dosh to front those premiums but I am pulling for you. Obviously your positions are very bad for my portfolio lol so please feel free to comp me a couple packs of yellow spirits if you come up big, in exchange for my good vibes. Be well my friend.
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Oct 30, 2020 08:58
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"uvxy calls" and "sustains" don't really go in the same post sell them you madman! at least like half, you still make a chunk of money either way
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Oct 30, 2020 10:16
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Ripping pretty good now, ECB pump or something? -1.13% e: -0.84% and the entire late night drop is clawed back Ola fucked around with this message at 10:52 on Oct 30, 2020 |
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Oct 30, 2020 10:24
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I dipped my toe in on UVXY calls as well but I am definitely getting out of them this morning. I'll take a small win, thank you.
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Oct 30, 2020 13:14
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$700 in divs from NLY 
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Oct 30, 2020 14:26
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Good bets available on predictit btw. We're over here scrounging for a few % a year over an index fund, and there you can still get 2-3% on bets like "Republican electoral college margin of victory will NOT be 280+".
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Oct 30, 2020 16:38
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Baddog posted:Good bets available on predictit btw. how can california only be 94% biden? In what timeline does Trump win california?
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Oct 30, 2020 16:59
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I closed my position for a tidy profit. Yesterday really took the wind out of the sails and today, even with a strong red candle, the profits didn't really change much. I'm feeling like this won't be the crash I hoped it would, more of a slow burn or sideways action. Sadly not life changing money but considering I mostly just flip AAPL shares, it's a nice $1600 or so boost for me to be able to increase the number of shares I can flip.greasyhands posted:how can california only be 94% biden? In what timeline does Trump win california? Those, like TSLA $100 puts and stuff of its ilk, is mostly just betting that Biden or Elon Musk or whoever dies in a freak accident.
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Oct 30, 2020 17:08
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What about this (I'm the CCL guy): * Current cruise ship travel ban set to end 10/31 (CDC had recommended 2/28/21, Pence over-ruled them literally hours before the last ban expired to extend it from 9/30 to 10/31 * Desantos, Rubio, & Scott all openly asking the cruise ship ban to be lifted (citing rapid C19 testing). They also want to ease the travel ban on some EU countries + UK. * Florida is a key swing state with a big travel industry that's really hurting, the whole industry is lifted by cruises bringing in people. * No cruises have been scheduled/sold for the first week of November My guess is the ban is not extended just before the election, rather "the economy is safe, we've rounded the corner, cruises are back!" the speech is given by many. CCL huge boost Monday. Tuesday they free fall as people realize no cruises are actually occurring and the ban is probably coming back. Ban is reinstated post-election, CCL back near bankruptcy level.
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Oct 30, 2020 17:18
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greasyhands posted:how can california only be 94% biden? In what timeline does Trump win california? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6611/Which-party-will-win-California-in-the-2020-presidential-election someone in comments mentions a 5% transaction fee. between that and the available bids there's probably near zero opportunity for profit?
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Oct 30, 2020 18:03
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Predictit takes a big fee from your winnings, and always charges a withdrawal fee. It's a bad site
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Oct 30, 2020 18:08
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The 5% is only at withdrawal right?
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Oct 30, 2020 18:09
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pmchem posted:https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6611/Which-party-will-win-California-in-the-2020-presidential-election Whups, I'd forgotten there is a 5% fee on withdrawal. I just let it grow, haven't ever taken money out. So right, this isn't something you want to jump in and out of. edit - chris, its 10% from winnings (when a position is closed out). Not that huge, but I agree its not great. Using a book like bovada is way cheaper, but its also subject to the AG of NY getting a bug up his rear end and seizing all your money for five years. Baddog fucked around with this message at 18:21 on Oct 30, 2020 |
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Oct 30, 2020 18:11
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They also skim 10% of your profits every time you sell a share for more than you paid. Then, 5% of the balance when you want to take money out of predictit
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Oct 30, 2020 18:12
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GoGoGadgetChris posted:Predictit takes a big fee from your winnings, and always charges a withdrawal fee. It's a bad site I made a small amount on the primary and got out. I have some larger non-predictit bets on Biden that were even odds that I placed early April when it was clear that the economy had tanked and the trump administration was mishandling the situation. Predictit is a weird mix of people taking very low probability flyers and people buying the news instead of selling it.
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Oct 30, 2020 18:12
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GoGoGadgetChris posted:They also skim 10% of your profits every time you sell a share for more than you paid. Then, 5% of the balance when you want to take money out of predictit is there a better/cheaper site?
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Oct 30, 2020 18:15
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pmchem posted:is there a better/cheaper site? I'm not sure! It's the only one I have experience with. If you want to play political bets directly it certainly works, but man, you have to win by a wide margin to do any more than break even. Best use for the site is getting minor entertainment over a couple hundred bucks, imho
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Oct 30, 2020 18:18
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GoGoGadgetChris posted:
Well, that's not how math works.... If I get a 2% win, they take 10% of that, or 0.2%. You keep 1.8%. That's still more than break even on a near lock bet. See so many people sticking to 10% or wider bets because "all the money is taken by fees otherwise". pmchem, I edited it in up there - you can usually get better action and always better fees on betting sites like bovada, but depending on your state it might be in a grey legal area and you might have your money seized for awhile, like we did in the big online poker crackdown.
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Oct 30, 2020 18:31
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Baddog posted:Well, that's not how math works.... And then the 5% withdrawal fee puts you in the red, right?
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Oct 30, 2020 18:32
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GoGoGadgetChris posted:And then the 5% withdrawal fee puts you in the red, right? It's 5% on the amount withdrawn, right? So just withdraw your profit? It's kind of like people who won't go after 2% trades because of short-term cap gains taxes.
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Oct 30, 2020 18:36
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In some spy nov 20 calls at 1.70. Come on market buy the dip.
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Oct 30, 2020 18:38
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GoGoGadgetChris posted:And then the 5% withdrawal fee puts you in the red, right? Yah, depositing and withdrawing all your money after *every single bet* you make is not good. I said I'd forgotten about that fee cus I just let the money grow. But the 10% fee on winnings isn't that much higher than your normal books spread (lot better on the smaller volume stuff), and this site is actually legal. But you guys are right, I phrased it as "jump on this for a quick win", and its not a site for that. If you want to open an account to bet on politics over a matter of years, its good though.
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Oct 30, 2020 18:42
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FreelanceSocialist posted:It's 5% on the amount withdrawn, right? So just withdraw your profit? It's kind of like people who won't go after 2% trades because of short-term cap gains taxes. Most people eventually withdraw their money from PredictIt. If you ever plan to convert your PredictIt FunBucks into american dollars, it takes a 5% haircut. Essentially, you need to have a profit of at least ~6% to make money. Any less and you break even. The Maths: Buy a bunch of shares at $0.420 Sell them for $0.445, a 5.9% gain. You pay a fee of $0.022 (10% of your profit) You are able to withdraw $0.420 (95% of your balance), which was your initial bet. So again, to summarize, you have to win by a pretty wide margin (just under 6%) to break even. You can have higher paper winnings if you never withdraw it and let PredictIt keep your money. Baddog posted:Yah, depositing and withdrawing all your money after *every single bet* you make is not good. I said I'd forgotten about that fee cus I just let the money grow. Paying a 5% fee on $1,000 is the same as paying a 5% fee on $100, ten times. GoGoGadgetChris fucked around with this message at 18:48 on Oct 30, 2020 |
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Oct 30, 2020 18:46
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Foma posted:$700 in divs from NLY I think next calendar year I’m going to focus more on dividends and see what that is like, how that goes, compared to, you know, gambling.
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Oct 30, 2020 18:50
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How do I apply for margin on predictit?
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Oct 30, 2020 18:52
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GoGoGadgetChris posted:
Don't forget to pay your taxes too! Under Biden that'll be another 60% fee on top of everything else. I'm gonna lose so much money, gently caress.
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Oct 30, 2020 19:00
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Baddog posted:Don't forget to pay your taxes too! I mean, I'm assuming from this that you understand now? Let me know if there's lingering confusion because it's really simple.
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Oct 30, 2020 19:03
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Taxchat: my sister literally believes that Biden will double her taxes
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Oct 30, 2020 19:18
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After 1330, it looks like someone is trying to write something in TSLA. M...usk...is...dea *end of day*
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Oct 30, 2020 19:24
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decypher posted:I think next calendar year I’m going to focus more on dividends and see what that is like, how that goes, compared to, you know, gambling. I calculated that per dollar invested I get double the dividends from CVX than I do from my Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF, but Biden + dems sweeping both houses + covid winter makes me hesitant to add more CVX right now. I was going to buy more if it got down to $60, but it bottomed out at $65 recently.
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Oct 30, 2020 19:26
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well well well.... Lots of red.
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Oct 30, 2020 20:00
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I had a CSP on HTZ $2 strike ending today. I got out a couple days ago for a small profit. Glad I did  :What in the World Just Happened to Hertz Stock? quote:The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), owned by Intercontinental Exchange (NYSE:ICE), announced that the staff of NYSE Regulation has suspended trading of Hertz Global Holdings (NYSE:HTZ). The NYSE will now file a delisting application with the Securities and Exchange Commission.....
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Oct 30, 2020 20:01
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I bought these SPY puts for Disaster Insurance but dammit if I'm not tempted to just take a 50% return
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Oct 30, 2020 20:02
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GoGoGadgetChris posted:I mean, I'm assuming from this that you understand now? Let me know if there's lingering confusion because it's really simple. Well, when you actually tried to do math up there, your fee calculation was off by an order of magnitude. But you managed to stumble into the right answer in service of your joke. You are correct, if you deposit and withdraw after every single bet. And that's an important point to make - don't get on predictit if you don't want to bet on politics for awhile. But I'm up much more than 5% over the years, so it will be next to a nonissue for me. That's for the way I play, lots of 2-10% wins. Does that make sense? Put in $200 Grow it to $10,000 Pay $500 on cash out At the end of the day, you didn't "lose $300" on your initial deposit. The 5% fee is just the price you pay for the site being an actual legit US regulated operation using standard credit card processors. Instead of all the shady poo poo sites with virtual slot machines do to get US traffic onboard. I'm pretty sure I got 2% when I deposited money onto the site with my cash back credit card. Should we figure that in too? Baddog fucked around with this message at 20:15 on Oct 30, 2020 |
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Oct 30, 2020 20:08
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GoGoGadgetChris posted:I bought these SPY puts for Disaster Insurance but dammit if I'm not tempted to just take a 50% return lol i forgot that spy crashed down to $222 at the march nadir. how much would these fuckers print if it did it again? just curious to make me feel bad. too rich for my blood
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Oct 30, 2020 20:11
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All these index charts look like poo poo, I've put on some small shorts on spy/qqq/aapl, and a long on swbi and rgr in case the chuds start buying in droves. e: CVX is a good call, waiting for <65. Of course I have a grip of MO that's dragging my IRA down even with an 8% div. Woodchip fucked around with this message at 20:18 on Oct 30, 2020 |
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Oct 30, 2020 20:14
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Baddog posted:Well, when you actually tried to do math up there, your fee calculation was off by an order of magnitude. But you managed to stumble into the right answer in service of your joke. You are correct, if you deposit and withdraw after every single bet. And that's an important point to make - don't get on predictit if you don't want to bet on politics for awhile. Lemme pull ya out of the weeds here. To those looking at PredictIt and wondering why they shouldn't go all-in on "California goes blue at $0.94" - A 5.9% return is a breakeven. Less than 5.9% is a loss, more than 5.9% is a gain. Well done on your $200 to $10,000! That's really great
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Oct 30, 2020 20:17
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Tokyo Sex Whale posted:Well, basically wiped out the years gains shorting NQ I reshorted last night. About back to even. If I’d had stronger hands... we’d definitely be at 12500 right now.
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Oct 30, 2020 20:42
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GoGoGadgetChris posted:Well done on your $200 to $10,000! That's really great Thanks man, and glad to see you come around on the idea of occasionally buying puts as insurance. That might be another sign that the end times are really upon us tho Baddog fucked around with this message at 20:54 on Oct 30, 2020 |
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Oct 30, 2020 20:48
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