|
Omerta posted:I am a labor and employment attorney at a very large law firm. Everything I’m seeing is carnage. Is there an official release of the unemployment figures due soon?
|
#
¿
Mar 19, 2020 04:31
|
|
|
|
| # ¿ May 9, 2024 04:14 |
|
|
Josh Lyman posted:Nonfarm payrolls come out the first Friday of every month. We get jobless claims tomorrow (Thursday) at 8:30am, but that's for last week so even if it's bad, it won't be THAT bad. Cheers, I might hold on to my bear funds until the 3rd in that case. Hopefully I can flip them and pick up a few bargains. Spewing I didn’t break my term deposit earlier, I’d love to have a bit more free cash to play with.
|
|
#
¿
Mar 19, 2020 05:36
|
|
|
Omerta posted:People have already responded with the relevant info, but I’ll add a little flavor to what’s keeping me up at night. Thanks for the background. Here in Australia it's a little hard to get a gauge of what's actually happening on the ground in the US so it's good to get this sort of info. I think the likelihood is that this will be as bad if not worse than the GFC so I'm expecting around a 50% decline from peak to trough. I'll probably look to offload these bear funds when it gets to 45% down to be on the safe side (if there is a safe side to leveraged bear ETFs lol) but I'll keep an eye on the news and make the call accordingly. If it gets to 50% down before the payroll numbers are released I might hang onto them a for a bit longer to cash in on traders collectively making GBS threads their pants once they are released.
|
|
#
¿
Mar 19, 2020 08:52
|
|
|
Omerta posted:A sign that things are totally cool and good: Why not just withhold the quarterly GDP numbers while they’re at it?
|
|
#
¿
Mar 20, 2020 02:03
|
|
|
Risky Bisquick posted:Who tf is buying this market? I’m gonna buy May 1st puts tomorrow EOD after the bull rally to wipe out WSB put holders. This ship is sinking, SINKING in all caps to express how hosed it will be and it is not priced in lol There’s a few shares I’m looking at buying. I’m looking closely at BHP because I think China will announce a bunch of stimulus sooner rather than later and BHP will skyrocket after that.
|
|
#
¿
Mar 20, 2020 07:14
|
|
|
Would Boeing be worth a punt at the current price, or if it gets a bailout are shareholders likely to get fisted? Seems like the sort of company that won't be allowed to fail and will eventually come good (the last year might even be good for it long term if it makes them less complacent) thanks to all the military contracts getting handed to it.
|
|
#
¿
Mar 20, 2020 12:53
|
|
|
Dwight Eisenhower posted:But we climbed from 3235.66 to 3393.52 between 2/3 and 2/21. Why are things 5% more valuable over three weeks with this uncertainty looming? I think the low interest rates probably played a role with that. Certainly here a lot of retirees need a certain yield and that has pushed more and more people to be heavily into shares and away from other investments as interest rates dried up. They might have been concerned about the developments in China at the time but didn’t really have any attractive alternative for their money until it became clear that the place to be was anywhere but shares.
|
|
#
¿
Mar 20, 2020 22:18
|
|
|
Ur Getting Fatter posted:I'm interested in what's going to happen as China and the main European countries come out of lockdown and the US still has it's borders crossed. How does the world economy restart without the primary buyer? Do other countries wait it out or try shift existing supply lines to the countries that can buy now, even if that means not being able to service the US when they open up again. I have wondered about this too, mainly in the context of China. They’re trying to ramp production up to pre virus levels but most of their export markets are circling the drain into recession if they haven’t already entered one. I’d love to see some recent export and industrial production data out of China but I’m not sure where to find it. Last I heard the shipping industry was racking up losses because there was a huge oversupply of capacity. I can’t see that situation having improved with international trade grinding to a halt. It adds an interesting dynamic because restarting supply chains after a bunch of shipping companies have potentially gone bankrupt and the capacity is no longer there could be tough.
|
|
#
¿
Mar 20, 2020 22:34
|
|
|
Sure sign of a healthy, normal economy with no significant underlying issues. In other news the insolvency industry here in Australia is gearing up for a big one: https://www.theage.com.au/business/...320-p54c65.html
|
|
#
¿
Mar 20, 2020 23:59
|
|
|
The local media and various economists I follow are saying this going to be at least as bad as the GFC so I'll go roughly 50% from top to bottom for SPY, lets say 160. Oil I have no clue about but I'm going to assume the Saudis and Russia aren't going to let a rolled gold opportunity to gently caress over the US shale producers go to waste and will turn the screws for a while longer, plus there's probably going to be decreased demand as transport falls in a heap for the next 3-4 months. No idea how much of that is already priced in. $16.50
|
|
#
¿
Mar 22, 2020 07:28
|
|
|
I'm tipping the ASX is going to implode tomorrow given the entire country is now in full lockdown mode.
|
|
#
¿
Mar 22, 2020 10:03
|
|
|
EAT FASTER!!!!!! posted:Somebody claimed that this would kill fewer than 50K Americans which is almost certainly a mathematical impossibility at this point. You realise they'll probably just stop testing them yeah? When is the unemployment figure due out?
|
|
#
¿
Mar 26, 2020 11:31
|
|
|
Anton Chigurh posted:At 8:30 AM ET, about an hour before market open. Cheers. Any chance it's already been priced in or is it likely to create a bit of panic?
|
|
#
¿
Mar 26, 2020 11:49
|
|
|
I guess they’re all just pricing in Trump curing the virus by Easter Do you think it’s worth me holding on to my Strong Bear ETFs until the next potential set of bad economic figures? I thought that at least 50% fall from top to bottom was a given but if people are happy to brush off a historically high unemployment figure like that then maybe those sorts of falls aren’t as certain as I assumed.
|
|
#
¿
Mar 26, 2020 14:36
|
|
|
Ultra low interest rates are probably distorting the market a fair bit too, there’s literally nowhere else to put your money and get any kind of return above inflation. In Australia the market kept rising even though the economy was sluggish at best, there was a big disconnect between the real economy and share prices.
|
|
#
¿
Mar 26, 2020 14:59
|
|
|
This has broken me lol It was only a bit of play money but if you'd told me a week ago that the announcement of 3.3 million unemployed people would see the SPY jump by 7% I'd have said you were mad, but here we are. Presumably there's going to be another big, bad number released same time next week and maybe the unemployment agencies will have caught up with some of the backlog by then, and there's also the employment figures due out on the 3rd but now I'm not sure if any further bad news is going to have any impact or if it just gets drowned out by the money printer going brrr. I'm torn between selling now while I'm only 6% down and grabbing some quality stocks to hold onto, or waiting another week in the hope that bad economic figures and an increasing kill count will dampen sentiment a bit.
|
|
#
¿
Mar 26, 2020 23:02
|
|
|
The ASX has fallen a bit today which has given me a bit of confidence that there's still some gloom out there. edit - in the time it took to type this it's just fallen another .7% 
|
|
#
¿
Mar 27, 2020 05:53
|
|
|
What is the likelihood yesterday in the US in heavily influenced by that pension fund rebalancing and a bunch of people saw number was up and piled in as well?
|
|
#
¿
Mar 27, 2020 10:36
|
|
|
4.5m, not because that's how many actually lost their job but because that all that could be processed. SPY to close 2.8% higher on the back of this news.
|
|
#
¿
Apr 2, 2020 08:00
|
|
|
I wonder how many more like this get shaken from the tree in the next few months.
|
|
#
¿
Apr 2, 2020 21:35
|
|
|
gay picnic defence posted:4.5m, not because that's how many actually lost their job but because that all that could be processed. I wasn’t far off the SPY guess 
|
|
#
¿
Apr 2, 2020 21:36
|
|
|
saintonan posted:https://twitter.com/SRuhle/status/1245820270704812038?s=20 Yeah but then the grifters might not get as much free money
|
|
#
¿
Apr 3, 2020 01:19
|
|
|
MomJeans420 posted:I hope one day (probably years in the future) someone is able to unravel all the trades made by people close to him in the hour before he tweets, because I'm sure someone is making billions off of this. Hell, if you knew a week or two before he tweeted it could look slightly more plausible you weren't trading on inside information. I’ve been discussing this with another guy at work who does a bit of share trading. We’re adamant that someone in his inner circle just buys a bunch of options and then tells Trump what to tweet about.
|
|
#
¿
Apr 3, 2020 04:36
|
|
|
saintonan posted:I think a lot of traders are seeing this as a one-off event - yes there are a lot of jobs lost, but the expectations right now are that most all those jobs will pick right up again once the all-clear is given, so it's just a matter of the government making everyone whole for the period of time that they're down. I think that's why these jobs numbers are being shrugged off. I think those expectations will eventually change, but all the cheerleading right now is giving people a false sense of optimism. Eventually reality will set in, but it may be a slow net descent rather than a sharp shock to the bottom. This, and also where else are they going to put their money that has any kind of return that isn’t some lovely junk bond? I had thought we’d have a dead cat bounce followed by another savage sell off, but now I agree that it’ll probably be a slower decline unless a prominent business goes belly up and spooks people - which I guess will happen eventually.
|
|
#
¿
Apr 3, 2020 15:28
|
|
|
saintonan posted:Almost everything I hear is something like "yeah Q2 is gonna be bad but by Q4 we'll be back on track and shooting higher again". I think there has been and will be much more durable damage done, and it'll take a lot longer than that to return to what we think of now as a normal economy. I'm not sure how to play that, though, because it cuts strongly against what market sentiment is right now. I suspect once the end is in sight the market will really rocket. Not because it’s in any way reflective of the real economy but there’s been so much stimulus and with low interest rates every man and his dog will be piling in.
|
|
#
¿
Apr 3, 2020 15:32
|
|
|
So yesterday NYC records a small decline in the number of deaths or something so Number go up; today NYC suffers the highest number of deaths to date, Number still go up?
|
|
#
¿
Apr 7, 2020 22:10
|
|
|
The Dark Project posted:Anyone know any interesting buys for the Australian stock market? My friend is looking to invest and hasn't got a clue, and neither do I. It depends on what your timeframe is. If you're buying to hold for a few years, Qantas shares got smashed but is in a pretty good position to weather this next year or so they're probably decent value at the moment. WBC and NAB are fairly cheap and along with the other two banks are unlikely to be allowed to fail so they're probably safe bets. If it's a short term investment I have no idea. My gut tells me this is just a bull trap though and I think the market has a bit further to fall which is why I have held off stocking up on cheap bluechips for the moment. However the market was pretty distorted prior to getting corona-ed due to the ultra low interest rates and is probably going continue being distorted so I could be way off here and have already missed the bottom.
|
|
#
¿
Apr 7, 2020 23:44
|
|
|
Oscar Wild posted:I dont understand. Why would buybacks drop if the stock price as fallen more than 20%? Surely the underlying fundamentals haven't changed... I would’ve thought that a sudden drop in revenue and problems getting finance would be a pretty good reason for stopping share buybacks. Aren’t buybacks what you do when things are going great and the company has heaps of cash to hand out to shareholders?
|
|
#
¿
Apr 8, 2020 05:33
|
|
|
The Dark Project posted:Yeah I was thinking it might be a trap as well, which is why I'd hold off myself. But I don't have much to go on other than the fact that the virus isn't likely to subside anytime soon and the after-effects will still be around. Those recommendations are probably ok, you don't really have a lot else to go on unless you are familiar with the company. I guess any time someone recommends a small pharmaceutical company with a promising but unproven new treatment there's always going to be a bit of risk involved compared to a company in the ASX100 with a track record of good performance. It might be worth having a chat to a financial adviser in this case, just to get a feel for your level of risk tolerance and maybe get some tips from a professional on diversifying etc as well.
|
|
#
¿
Apr 8, 2020 06:39
|
|
|
Shelvocke posted:https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/apr/08/fears-of-crisis-in-uk-car-finance-market-as-owners-seek-payments-help I assume the 60 day freezes are more to give the government time to bail them out than any kind of expectation that this will be over and people will be back working again.
|
|
#
¿
Apr 8, 2020 08:58
|
|
|
So we have an impending recession that looks like it’ll be worse than anything since the Great Depression and the market is roughly halfway back to its highest point ever after its recent crash. I guess the question is how long can the fed keep throwing money at poo poo? What happens when companies start to realise that efficiency and performance hardly matters because the fed will buy up your lovely junk bonds to keep you from going bankrupt? What breaks the cycle here?
|
|
#
¿
Apr 9, 2020 15:23
|
|
|
greasyhands posted:The post-reagan republicans are pretty clearly going to be the ones to eventually sink this ship, its just not clear (to me at least) what their motive is... Just aggressive arrogant ignorance? I have no idea Greed and a lust for power?
|
|
#
¿
Apr 11, 2020 05:57
|
|
|
jokes posted:Their motive is to burn everything down to collect insurance money. An Irish stocktake on an entire country, impressive
|
|
#
¿
Apr 11, 2020 09:09
|
|
|
3000
|
|
#
¿
Apr 12, 2020 04:27
|
|
|
Agronox posted:CHK just did a 1 for 200 share reverse split. Why not call it a consolidation? I've seen a few small mining companies do them from time to time, the shares are only worth a few cents though.
|
|
#
¿
Apr 13, 2020 23:23
|
|
|
Lote posted:Their bonds are trading at like 10-30 cents on the dollar with an effective yield of 700% Are these the junk bonds the Fed is going to vacuum up?
|
|
#
¿
Apr 13, 2020 23:49
|
|
|
LLCoolJD posted:https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/14/imf-global-economy-to-contract-by-3percent-due-to-coronavirus.html It’s already been priced in
|
|
#
¿
Apr 14, 2020 21:37
|
|
|
lurksion posted:The firm my dad work (basically industrial process consulting) has somewhere on the order of 50K on the books for next month. They should be expecting 1 million in normal times. I was listening to a webinar with some guy from Black Rock who was saying that price/earnings ratios will have hardly dropped once the current falls in profits have been taken into account. Equities were horribly overvalued prior to this, now they’re still going to be horribly overvalued, just based on reduced earnings.
|
|
#
¿
Apr 14, 2020 21:51
|
|
|
Dwight Eisenhower posted:It's kinda broke brained. If you gamble your dividend cash, then you're lighting your portfolio's ability to compound on fire... UNLESS you then take some substantial portion of your gambling winnings and then reinvest it in something you'll hold long term. If you have a negative ev on your gambling then you're sapping some of your dividends' ability to grow your portfolio in order to have the fun of gambling. If you're positive ev then you are amplifying the ability of your dividends to compound. The trouble is those official numbers might only represent 5-10% of the actual infected population. A study looking at a bunch of pregnant women coming into a particular hospital found that 15% of them had covid, it’s not a perfect assumption but it’s not unreasonable either to assume from that that as much as 15% of the NY population has it. As long as new cases are being identified it’s fairly safe to assume there’s still a bit of community spread going on undetected so you still have a large reservoir of carriers out there, some of whom can be contagious up to a month after getting infected. The percentage of people who are contagious for this long is low but it only takes one contagious person to restart the party. If you reopen the economy while there are still active cases they’ll eventually start spreading it again and you end up with a second wave, a president who can’t lock everything down again for fear of losing face, and a population who doesn’t really give a gently caress any more.
|
|
#
¿
Apr 14, 2020 22:20
|
|
|
|
| # ¿ May 9, 2024 04:14 |
|
|
Leperflesh posted:the election is in november, friend For now
|
|
#
¿
Apr 15, 2020 01:35
|
|