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Rurutia posted:Strange. It sounded wrong to me too, so I looked it up on wikipedia when he posted and it says 'After 2012, the long-term capital gains tax rate will be 20% (10% for taxpayers in the 15% tax bracket).' But the chart later on clearly shows that 20% is for the 39.6% income tax bracket. The bullets on the top of this page describe what policy would have been had the Bush tax cuts been allowed to totally expire, so it looks like nobody's updated the top of the page to reflect the Fiscal Cliff bill yet. The table at the end of the article is correct, though.
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Feb 1, 2013 19:27
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Acceptableloss posted:Can someone explain this? I don't follow what has happened here. This morning, it was announced that Buffet (and some other people) were buying the entirety of Heinz at $72.50 a share. This is 20% above yesterday's closing price of $60.48. This morning, since everyone knew what Buffet was paying, the market price of HNZ instantly shot up to $72.50. However, yesterday afternoon, someone opened up a huge position in HNZ $65 calls. Simply put, this is a bet that HNZ would be worth over $65 at expiry. What's important in the charts in the Zero Hedge post are the huge spikes in volume concurrent with the price being driven up (meaning there are some very aggressive buyers). Also, the number of open calls ("open interest") created yesterday was like 6 times what had been there for the last several weeks. Turns out this guy was absolutely right, and the value of the calls shot up from basically nothing yesterday (since they were so out of the money) to worth a fuckload today. Basically, the only possibilities are (1) someone knew that Heinz was going to be taken private, for a purchase price above $65 and decided to trade on that information, (2) someone made a ballsy bet that Heinz would have a share price above $65 and got incredibly lucky, or (3) in this timeline, Biff stole the almanac and it happened to include this deal.
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Feb 15, 2013 05:06
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What if some guy saw that guidance Goldman put out and decided to make the opposite bet based entirely on the knowledge that Goldman loves to issue guidance in the opposite direction of trades they themselves are making? Would that be insider trading? VVVVV touché Shear Modulus fucked around with this message at 18:49 on Feb 15, 2013 |
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Feb 15, 2013 18:45
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evilwaldo posted:Tighten up your stops people. It is about to get very, very interesting with the problems in Cyprus. I knew I should have picked up some VXX when it hit its 52-week low on Friday... Edit: A tax on bank deposits? They're basically asking for the mother of all bank runs in Greece and Italy. This move is so insane I can only assume that the ECB is now actively trying to crash the Eurozone. Shear Modulus fucked around with this message at 03:44 on Mar 18, 2013 |
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Mar 18, 2013 02:36
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Shear Modulus posted:I knew I should have picked up some VXX when it hit its 52-week low on Friday... Looks like it's a good thing I didn't do this after all. I was expecting a lot more volatility (or even just selling) due to the Cyprus thing. Maybe the market is just pricing in the prediction that Cyprus and the troika can keep putting off reopening the banks or giving them the bailout indefinitely until the problem just goes away? Edit: VXX just touched another 52-week low. This totally makes sense, as there is definitely less uncertainty than even a week ago. Non-sarcastic: I guess I really don't have any idea what's going on here. Shear Modulus fucked around with this message at 19:21 on Mar 20, 2013 |
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Mar 20, 2013 19:14
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livingfruitvirus posted:Wow I lucked out with Nike. Bought in Thursday, goes up 11% Friday. If you don't mind me asking, what made you decide to buy? My own impression was that everyone was pretty surprised at their earnings. Shear Modulus fucked around with this message at 06:57 on Mar 23, 2013 |
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Mar 23, 2013 06:36
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evilwaldo posted:If we are talking about bitcoin it has certainly peaked. The GBS Bitcoin thread got closed because some dumbass goon accessed someone else's account on some third-party Bitcoin "vault" site (by typing their username into the URL) and transferring Bitcoins out.
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Apr 4, 2013 01:11
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LLCoolJD posted:The talk was that these solar stocks were going bankrupt. Now they're suddenly making money again? I've made money on them before but it always feels like such a gamble. The deal with First Solar in particular was that historically they made all their money selling in Germany, where they had a whole bunch of their production and where solar generation was supported by a big government PTC-alike. Then in late 2011 or early 2012 the Germans cut the subsidy to the bones in a big round of government spending cuts, so everyone was predicting the doom of First Solar. Then at about the same time First Solar mentioned in their 10-K that they suspected their panels, made out of a particular material, were especially sensitive to accelerated degradation in high temperature environments. This thread actually had a discussion for a few pages about this about a year ago. Everyone took this to mean that their panels wouldn't be competitive in traditional solar markets (hot and sunny, like the US Southwest), OR the northern European countries like Germany, which even though they don't have the best environment for solar power had robust solar sectors through government subsidies that were suddenly being cut. It really did seem like their market had suddenly vanished. The company responded by saying "hey so in response to this we're going to shift our focus from selling panels directly to producers and end-users, to contracting with people who want to build big (ie, hundreds of MW) solar installations to provide the plans, construction management, and operations for them. It will probably take about a year for us to restructure." I personally thought they were still doomed, but it looks like I was wrong. tl;dr: It looked like the company was absolutely going to go bankrupt, and they decided to completely restructure to try and fix that. Obviously most of the time that doesn't help, but here it looks like it did. Edit: A lot of the solar companies that have been going kaput in the past few months were Chinese, which means that the typical Chinese firm caveats of "how much of their financials can be trusted" apply, but some of the analysis I read say it was a combination of some unknowable about the state subsidies and the new US tariffs on Chinese PV panels. Shear Modulus fucked around with this message at 02:06 on Apr 10, 2013 |
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Apr 10, 2013 00:15
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lightpole posted:Nothing about AAPL? I'm finally back in the black on my position from a month ago!  Would have bought more when it went down to $390 but already had too much money in one stock.Also, I am a terrible terrible trend reader. Me in mid-April: Man, RDS looks cheap and I want energy exposure. But it seems to be on a downtrend and I should see if it can get closer to the 52w low. *I get busy and forget to check the market for the past week.*  If you're reading this, feel free to buy because I'm too scared to buy in now that it went up a few bucks and with my luck it'll keep going up uP UP!
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Apr 30, 2013 06:20
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COUNTIN THE BILLIES posted:RE ANF: I read the article and I guess I don't really understand why you are wondering if this is something that hasn't been considered by the broader market yet. Abercrombie's been marketing exclusively to rich hot teenagers and college kids since at least when I was in high school in the early-mid-2000s. As a dude I've never shopped in their women's section but I'd be shocked if their not carrying XL and XXL women's is a new development. That said, they're able to sell their products at a ridiculous markup and unlike something like American Apparel the management doesn't seem to be nuts. I think you could definitely do worse if you're looking for a clothes retailer to buy. For another idea, I haven't done much research into it, but AEO targets basically the same market, has about the same current ratio and no long-term debt and is much closer to its 52-week low if that's your thing. Shear Modulus fucked around with this message at 02:45 on May 6, 2013 |
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May 6, 2013 02:38
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COUNTIN THE BILLIES posted:This line is what go me interested Right, but the BI article was quoting that line from an interview the CEO gave in 2006. They've been overt about it for a long time. I just don't think that it's new information or that their use of a markup as advertising would be something the market hasn't priced in. I absolutely agree with you that their margins are super attractive and they could stand to sell a ton if they get a foothold in China (though really, what retailer couldn't?) I looked at it some more and I think I agree with you that they are reasonably priced even at ~4% off their 52-week high. In fact you may have convinced me to look into buying one of these companies if I close one of my other positions sometime soon. VVVVVVVVV Good points. I don't really ever play retail so I hadn't thought about what sort of macro indicators there might be. Shear Modulus fucked around with this message at 03:38 on May 6, 2013 |
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May 6, 2013 03:09
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So apparently someone finally did what everyone knew was going to happen and made a working gun on a 3D printer. http://www.forbes.com/sites/andygreenberg/2013/05/05/meet-the-liberator-test-firing-the-worlds-first-fully-3d-printed-gun/ Update your views on the future path of the 3D printing industry accordingly.
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May 8, 2013 02:43
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nebby posted:I'm gonna make myself a 3d printer gun and head over to the Hacker Dojo and hold up some nerds for some bitcoins. Funny story, on the Forbes article it says that the group who made the gun has gotten like 99% of its funding from Bitcoin donations.
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May 8, 2013 02:54
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Pudgygiant posted:They make memory chips, and not even memory chips that are really worth writing home about. It's very blue collar for a tech company, in that I don't see how it's even possible for them to shift direction. If the CEO of a cardboard box company leaves they don't suddenly start making them out of aluminum. Sure, but if the founders of the company left than anyone who takes their place as management would necessarily know less about the company and how it was built. Maybe they got a sweet deal from one of their suppliers because it's managed by an old college buddy, and the new management doesn't have that relationship. In the worst case the new management might pull a Steve Ballmer and start blowing company money on dumb crap. In the worst worst case the founders might have bailed because, knowing more about the company than anyone else, they think it's doomed or doesn't have a future.
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May 8, 2013 18:53
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alnilam posted:I get what you mean. But this is the stock thread, and when this came up, Shear Modulus said "Update your views on the future path of the 3D printing industry accordingly." So while it's significant, I don't see it as significant for the industry. My reason for posting it was just because it's something that had been discussed in the thread in the past. DDD's been one of the most-discussed stocks here and someone making a working gun with one of these things has been talked about as some kind of apocalyptic endgame for the lack of government oversight in 3D printers, and I personally don't think it's super clear-cut that they'll be able to fend it off in every scenario. Just imagine if someone scary and foreign-looking sneaks a working 3D printed gun through a metal detector and kills someone. Sure, we have a very powerful gun lobby in the country, but I'm not 100% sure that manufacturers are going to be as invested in fighting off regulation of 3D printing companies whose products could be used for making guns. Good additive manufacturing processes that can make a part with good material properties is a really recent innovation. Sure, you could machine the same gun-shaped parts out of a block of resin or whatever, but due to imperfections implicit in any machined part, especially something as fragile as polymers, nobody's been able to make a nonmetal gun design that can reliably fire a bullet and not explode. The fact that someone can now do that with a few hours at a 3D printer and a CAD file is a big deal. Edit: Basically what bam thwok said. PS: My saying "update your views..." was just me trying to imitate Zero Hedge  .
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May 8, 2013 21:55
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Arkane posted:Bailed out of the Tesla steamroller at 72...really want to get back in, so hopefully this goes back to 70. Looks like it ain't happening. If I had some cash lying around in my account I would probably buy in now and ride it to the close. Edit: (I probably wouldn't actually do that) Double Edit: Man this thing is really jumping all over the place. The volume on this is nuts. Shear Modulus fucked around with this message at 18:45 on May 9, 2013 |
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May 9, 2013 18:38
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R.A. Dickey posted:I could definitely see the medical uses, but I swear, outside of this thread I dont think Ive ever heard anyone even talking about 3d printing. Wide scale adoption seems many, many years out...free paper clips notwithstanding. I hear about it all the time, but then again I'm a mechanical engineer. People have used it to prototype parts or products since like the early 90s (in this context it's traditionally been called "rapid prototyping"). Making a single part for prototyping purposes like this is a million times quicker than making it in the machine shop or preparing and using a suitable mold. To me, though, I don't see consumers adopting it any time soon. A lot of evangelists are predicting that one day we'll all have one in our homes but the machines are still too expensive and I don't see many consumers really having a need to buy something like this. Edit: Rereading your post I think you were basically saying the same thing. Nevermind but maybe someone else is interested in the quick history lesson.
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May 10, 2013 02:44
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evilwaldo posted:Get ready everyone in real estate. Quicken loans is touting Yortgages on TV. That's right, it is not a mortgage but your mortgage, a yortgage. I hope we get the commercials with the Ditech guy back when we reinflate the bubble. "Lost another loan to Ditech!  "I've seen a handful of Teslas around every now and then, but then again I've lived in the East Bay and Austin over the last few years so maybe I don't have an unbiased view. Haven't driven one yet, but everyone I know who's driven a Roadster or Model S says they're amazing performance cars. The fact that they're battery powered lets them get a shitload of torque when you accelerate.
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May 10, 2013 20:57
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AGNC is killing me right now. How much should I be concerned about their big miss last week?
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May 10, 2013 23:16
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cremnob posted:What is the margin on the Model S without the tax credits? Well the tax credit that the purchaser gets is $7500 but most of the prices thrown around ($60k-$80k for the Model S) take that into account. Or does Tesla get tax credits for the manufacture as well? Speaking of credits, I wonder how much money Tesla's getting (or is projecting to get) from selling CAFE credits? Since plug in vehicles are still incredibly advantaged on this (half of the reason the big companies are making plug ins is to meet future CAFE standards) they'll probably be drowning in them as they expand. Shear Modulus fucked around with this message at 20:09 on May 11, 2013 |
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May 11, 2013 19:56
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cremnob posted:The zero emission vehicle (ZEV) credit is what I was asking about. Well from the 10-Q (since they were profitable for the first time this quarter): quote:During the first quarter of 2013, we recognized $67.9 million in ZEV sales, which contributed to our gross margin. ZEV credit revenue should decline in future quarters relative to our automotive sales as we grow our sales outside the United States and earn fewer credits on the 60 kWh Model S battery variant for those sales that occur in the United States. Other regulatory credit sales recognized during the first quarter of 2013 were $17.1 million. While we will pursue opportunities to monetize ZEV credits we earn from the sales of our vehicles, we do not plan to rely on these sales to be a significant contributor to gross margin, and our business model is not predicated on such ZEV credits. Also: quote:As a result, we expect to achieve gross margin in the high teens in the second quarter of 2013. This expectation includes the impact from lower zero emission vehicle (ZEV) credit sales, a lower average selling price due to a higher mix of 60 kWh Model S vehicles, as well as limited sales of the now discontinued 40 kWh vehicles, which will have a range-limited 60 kWh battery pack. We expect our gross margin to continue to rise to our target of 25% in the fourth quarter of 2013, which assumes no ZEV credit revenue. We may not be able to achieve the planned cost reductions from our various cost savings and process improvement initiatives, which would negatively affect our ability to reach our gross margin goals. The "automotive sales" for 1Q also lists $555M in revenue, and I think that number includes the ZEV credit sales, so that puts them at about $488-$490 ex-ZEV credit sales. Edit: Their gross profit in 1Q is listed as $96M. Edit 2: The net income line, listed lower down, is $11M, so that's a big difference if that number includes ZEV credits. I'm still learning how to read financial statements so I'm not sure which is more important. Edit 3: For the benefit of anyone in the audience who's unfamiliar with this, these aren't tax credits but regulatory credits that manufacturers can trade around to meet government mandates of how many ZEVs they have to make. It works similarly to the federal acid rain program or the often-proposed carbon cap-and-trade scheme. Shear Modulus fucked around with this message at 20:37 on May 11, 2013 |
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May 11, 2013 20:23
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Arkane posted:Meanwhile, look at SolarCity. I remember buying call options when it was at 19ish just purely on the halo effect. I sold off when it went to like 22 or something. That was a month ago or thereabouts. What the hell, it's up like 30% today.
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May 13, 2013 17:37
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Arkane posted:Tesla at 89 in the after hours I feel like the valuation has gone past overpriced to totally fantastical. If I were more of a gambling man and had the cash to spare I would want some of the action but anyone buying in now would just be betting on momentum (doesn't mean it isn't going to go up by 15% tomorrow and I'll want to do it even more). Have we found the AAPL of 2013? Shear Modulus fucked around with this message at 03:12 on May 14, 2013 |
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May 14, 2013 03:04
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AAPL's been getting murdered this past week. I hit my stop so now I'm hoping we can get down to the crazy low levels for another great buying opportunity. Also, AGNC .
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May 15, 2013 15:02
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nebby posted:If it makes you feel better I sold at my basis which was about 425 thinking for sure the bots would keep selling for at least another day. Welp. So have you guys bought back in yet or are you going to hope for another fall to 430 or so? Edit: VVVVVV Once again my lack of options access and the spare cash to take on that much risk prevents me from making a smart trade  . Graduation and a real job can't come soon enough.
Shear Modulus fucked around with this message at 19:18 on May 20, 2013 |
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May 20, 2013 18:59
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Acquilae posted:So my alert for FNMA @ $3 just went off when it was trading at $3.88 and someone made an expensive typo of 18,000 @ $2.88. Ouch. There goes that guy's bonus. If you had an order in at $3 you could have made a cool 28% between ticks. Efficient markets, folks. MrBigglesworth posted:Good lord the REITs, especially ARR. So drat glad I got out of them a few months back. Don't say the word "REIT" to me... 
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May 28, 2013 19:19
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Microsoft just pulled a 180 on un-resellable games for the new Xbox. GME jumped almost 6% AH and may still have a market for a few more years. Hope none of you guys were still short.
Shear Modulus fucked around with this message at 03:43 on Jun 20, 2013 |
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Jun 20, 2013 03:35
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MrBigglesworth posted:WTF TSLA, back to $117 this morning. Had my trigger not have tripped Id still be in, oh well, still made a nice 45%+ profit. Goldman back to their old tricks again. "Sell (to me)" indeed.
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Jul 17, 2013 16:08
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Really wish I had bought more AAPL when it was at 400 a few weeks ago. If I had just sold all of the lovely positions I'm negative on and put all the money into AAPL I would actually be in the black on my dumb trading for the year.
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Jul 30, 2013 16:55
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I don't really know what I was thinking last week when I decided not to add to my tiny position at ~400. AAPL has been one of the few stocks I've made big wins with this year (REITs ) and I would honestly feel comfortable buying it up to maybe 525 but welp. Maybe I'll buy some more in the next couple of days when I get a chance to review my homework from earlier. What do you guys think? et Holy gently caress it keeps going up. Shear Modulus fucked around with this message at 20:02 on Aug 13, 2013 |
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Aug 13, 2013 19:59
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Pollyanna posted:Maybe you could figure out a way to determine a "dynamic" stop/limit? And have it change depending on how things look. You're thinking of trailing stops, which I've been doing on most of my purchases I intend to hold for at least a few weeks or months.
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Aug 13, 2013 23:01
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Pollyanna posted:Alright, I finished the book I was reading. Thinking about moving on to Security Analysis next, although I am still not very sure I comprehend how to approach investing. Security Analysis is pretty dense and assumes a bit of pre-existing familiarity about corporate accounting and such. I would suggest moving on to The Intelligent Investor (also by Graham) or the Four Pillars of Investing, which are more approachable for popular audiences and can help develop an understanding of how finance/stocks in general work.
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Aug 17, 2013 20:42
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This is the gambling thread, not the investing thread. (e: In response to Dial M for MURDER) The Zynga management is certainly concerned about the stock price. From what I remember they haven't been particularly subtle about whether that or sound business fundamentals come first.
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Sep 13, 2013 00:42
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Awww, I got greedy and hoped that AAPL would fall down to 420 or something again before replacing the shares I got stopped out of at ~500. Had they previously announced they were releasing sales figures today? I feel like an idiot for missing that if they did.Gamesguy posted:Dat about face. Don't really have much to add except Holy poo poo. I need to get me into option trading. Smart trade. Shear Modulus fucked around with this message at 15:44 on Sep 23, 2013 |
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Sep 23, 2013 15:36
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Gamesguy posted:Apple always releases sales figures after the first weekend. Look at me not knowing anything about AAPL's statistics release schedule. Yeah, by "get into options trading" I meant "actually crack open the copy of Options as a Strategic Investment that's been sitting on my nightstand forever."
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Sep 23, 2013 17:04
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Not sure if this is the right thread, but does anyone have a recommendation on a book on timeseries analysis for financial applications? I have experience with timeseries stuff for systems/controls engineering but could use a refresher and an intro to how people think about it in finance-world.
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Sep 25, 2013 21:25
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Josh Lyman posted:Analysis of Financial Time Series by Tsay is pretty popular for master's level material. Thanks for this, I grabbed a digital copy off my school's library and on a first flip-through it seems like it'll be a good orientation. The last few chapters on Kalman filters and other things that sound like stuff I already know give me at least some hope that they'll be some overlap with my prior knowledge. Gamesguy posted:Might I suggest starting with synthetic positions? You won't have to put up as much margin as with stock(usually 20% instead of 50% for equities), and you are much less exposed to the greeks. Missed this post from a couple days ago, but cool, I hadn't heard of this strategy. It looks like a good way to take baby steps at least. It'll probably be quite a while before I actually make any trades though.
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Sep 26, 2013 05:19
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alnilam posted:Also, the government DID shut down, right? And the market is up? I'm not crazy? I guess the market is assuming they'll work it out sooner rather than later like they've trending to for the last several crises. It's not "end of the world" territory unless they don't raise the debt ceiling. The worst part about this is that every federal employee is suddenly out of a paycheck.
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Oct 1, 2013 15:06
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Cheesemaster200 posted:If the government is shut down, does the debt ceiling date get pushed back as well? No. Why would it? The debt ceiling is only an issue because the government is both required to spend monies as previously mandated by Congress, for interest on bonds, etc and, completely contradictorily, is prevented from issuing more bonds to make payments on liabilities they've already incurred. It's not like shutting down the government is going to stop people from cashing the checks going out to soldiers, bondholders, or contractors whose future payments have money already allocated. Shear Modulus fucked around with this message at 05:32 on Oct 2, 2013 |
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Oct 2, 2013 05:22
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Leperflesh posted:I suspect the answer is that discretionary spending is a small enough percentage of total spending, and that discretionary spending during just a short few weeks is a small enough percentage of that number, that it will only push out the day we hit the debt ceiling by a few days at most, so nobody is really talking about it. Yes, discretionary spending, and particular the discretionary spending that's being saved for the next two weeks, is such a small amount compared to the amount that the government is already legally required to pay (by previous acts of Congress) over the same time period. The only reason that October 17th is the deadline we're all aware of is that the Treasury said "October 17th is the last day we will be able to put off a default by using extraordinary measures." Nobody except Treasury officials themselves are really keeping track of what the extraordinary measures are, but IIRC they're basically a bunch of administrative decisions that they can legally make to delay, lower, or redirect payments. We actually hit the debt ceiling in May, and have being doing said extraordinary measures to keep the US debt right at the limit since then. Again, I don't think anyone except the Treasury department's own analysts can explain why October 17th is the deadline, but I found an article that says the Treasury secretary still says that's the final deadline. Maybe the shutdown will make the amount of the payment over which we default lower, but it's still a default. Shear Modulus fucked around with this message at 08:23 on Oct 2, 2013 |
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Oct 2, 2013 08:21
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