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vaginal facsimile posted:The disruption is Amazon admitting it needs to purchase a brick and mortar store, admitting that brick and mortar isn't dead. Yeah and Kroger's cheaper and has more refrigerators probably. If I want cheap food I can go to Walmart. If I want higher quality food but I'm price sensitive I can go to Aldi or Costco. If I'm not price sensitive I can go to Whole Foods. Those stores all have pretty well-defined niches. Amazon using Amazon supply chain management magic seems like it's a play to turn the successful grocery store with a clearly defined market segment into a direct competitor of Aldi and Costco, two successful grocery stores with clearly defined markets. I don't know a whole lot about grocery store logistics but i doubt Aldi and Costco are leaving a lot of pennies on the ground. It's like buying the French Laundry with a plan to knock Cheesecake Factory off their mountain.
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Jun 16, 2017 23:17
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Since there's options talk, I'm curious because I can't get my head around it: how do you price an option on VXX?
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Jun 25, 2017 20:41
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The bear case for Twitter is pretty obviously that they have no idea how to make any money, which is valid. The bull case would be that it's too high profile to just go out of business and for whatever reason nobody has duplicated Twitter. Probably because they're too established at what they do. At some point somebody, probably one of the big tech companies, is going to buy them. So I think there is a right price to buy Twitter. I wouldn't, and I don't know what it is, but I think it exists.
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Jul 1, 2017 14:49
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LiterallyAnything posted:What do people think of the opinion that puts out on semiconductor stocks are keeping the stock prices down? It's nonsense. The options market is too small to affect the underlying stocks most of the time anyway and settling put options would if anything support a stock price as it moves down. But mostly option prices are just a reflection of sentiment. Cheesemaster200 posted:https://www.vox.com/the-big-idea/2017/6/26/15872468/tesla-gm-ford-valuation-justifying-disruption I want to post an analysis article on seeking alpha about Tesla, and it would be the price of a barrel of oil.
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Jul 3, 2017 17:13
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Leperflesh posted:I've harped on this before: your professor (and most of the media) are ignoring Tesla's most important advantage, which is design. Apple doesn't actually innovate and disrupt to nearly the degree that its proponents pretend; computers with GUIs, MP3 players, smartphones etc. all existed before Apple started making them and in all of those spaces Apple faced much larger companies with head starts on those technologies. Where Apple turned itself from an also-ran tech company into the highest-valued company on earth was with superior product design. People love to buy, own, and use Apple products and the same is very evidently true with Tesla products. Tesla is building a cult of brand; Ford has its fans but nothing remotely the same. A luxury... automobile? This sounds disruptive.
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Jul 3, 2017 18:14
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LiterallyAnything posted:I should've clarified; I was specifically referring to the concept of "Option Pinning". I had to look that up so I'll explain it for anyone as ignorant as me: option pinning is the tendency of a stock to close near an option price Fridays when an option expires, either due to a market maker placing big orders on a stock to cause options it has written to expire out of the money; or a natural byproduct of everybody hedging. Either way it wouldn't make a difference for more than a couple hours.
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Jul 3, 2017 20:12
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IMO things should have started dropping after the jobs report Friday (good report = Fed tapering = market down long term). Instead good report equals good economy. So it's risk-on and buy the dips again until September at least. Also I already have a bunch of QQQ puts and I'm always, always wrong, but only slightly wrong, never wrong enough that I lose enough money that I say "enough is enough, never again".
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Jul 10, 2017 21:17
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You must Buy, if the Costco is as full as you say.
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Jul 16, 2017 09:58
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Netflix posted:Q2’17 free cash amounted to -$608 million vs. -$254 million in the year ago quarter and -$423 million in Q1’17. We anticipate free cash flow of -$2.0 to -$2.5 billion for the full year 2017. With our content strategy paying off in strong member, revenue and profit growth, we think it’s wise to continue to invest. In continued success, we will deploy increased capital in content, particularly in owned originals, and, as we have said before, we expect to be FCF negative for many years. Red is the new black. Riding this thing to the moon
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Jul 17, 2017 21:51
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greasyhands posted:Welp, I'm done shorting into the biggest nonstop rally in years... Me, in August 2020: you know, if I had just saved all the money I've spent on puts over the last 4 years, I could buy a share of Netflix.
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Jul 19, 2017 23:09
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I don't see how that's relevant e: I was joking before but I have a new investment thesis: Didn't check everything on the list (what's the easiest way to do this?) but there is significant short interest in AMD CLF IRBT LOGI STX TSCO XLNX My Netflix Quarterly Earnings theory is that nothing ever goes down as long as you're pretty sure you're not going out of business next quarter so these should all melt up. MAYBE not TSCO if amazon announces they're selling tractor supplies now. Tokyo Sex Whale fucked around with this message at 16:17 on Jul 23, 2017 |
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Jul 23, 2017 13:13
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Tokyo Sex Whale posted:I don't see how that's relevant AMD, CLF, and IRBT have surged >2%. LOGI surged but pulled back to even premarket after earnings announcement. STX crashed after earnings. TSCO and XLNX has been declining a bit. Other cases that would have fit the screen are AAOI (up >6%) MCHP (small decline) and SHAK (small decline). ignoring CZR, LCI, and BANC because the first one involves a BK and the short interest in the last two are because of legal issues, real or imagined. Think it would've been a money maker but I only bought into AMD and CLF with a couple hundred bucks.
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Jul 25, 2017 14:28
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fougera posted:I'm curious if AMD bulls here have any justification for where the stock is currently trading. But by that logic, short everything. This has not been a money-maker so far.
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Jul 28, 2017 15:24
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Accretionist posted:Any thread/BFC rules or conventions about Penny Stocks? I get a handful of free trades every month and am occasionally given to buying lottery tickets, so I was thinking about researching pot stocks this weekend. I was looking through gold miners with low debt, low AISC and one of them was Resolute Mining, RMGGF. An Australian listed stock, currently $0.86 a share. Capital One won't let me trade it so I didn't get much further than that. But here is some due diligence: I think they report earnings early August and it is definitely a real company. If you're looking for a more traditional penny stock, Northern Dynasty Minerals is basically a lottery ticket that you have to pay a commission to buy. e: northern dynasty is also a good hedge if you have etf exposure that leaves you long fish. Tokyo Sex Whale fucked around with this message at 00:00 on Jul 29, 2017 |
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Jul 28, 2017 23:54
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The threat of nuclear war=S&P down 1.4% Thank god that's over.
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Aug 10, 2017 21:03
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VIX back down, indexes up, buy everything
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Aug 11, 2017 15:30
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GBTC isn't creating new shares and has like an 80-some percent premium to the underlying bitcoins. It's applied for NYSE listing for January I think, decision due in a month or two, and if that happens it'll be diluted down to NAV like instantly if the system works and bitcoins are liquid enough, but they aren't.
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Aug 16, 2017 21:04
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I checked the websites of the bitcoin exchanges and all the ones that are still open say they're not fraud so you should be ok to go ahead.
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Aug 20, 2017 01:12
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Wow. It'd be pretty stupid to put less than $50K in, sounds like.
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Aug 20, 2017 03:11
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Solice Kirsk posted:Diversifying means buying all the stocks in a specific sector right? Hedge your bitcoins with levered vol etfs
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Aug 26, 2017 00:46
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VXX is up 5% postmarket right now and it'll be back to even by open tomorrow morning then probably sell off or bump a little during the day. This has been happening every night for about 2 weeks now. I'm just curious what's happening.
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Aug 28, 2017 23:05
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Jack Daniels posted:today its more real Haha the yen is surging
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Aug 29, 2017 00:38
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As of this very moment S&P, NASDAQ, and DOW are all green on Nuke Japan day. I'd like to see VXX drop back down to even but still, good job everybody.
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Aug 29, 2017 18:07
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paternity suitor posted:It's not 2008 again. Everyone's been waiting for 2008 since 2010. We're coming up 10 years since the crash and people are still waiting for bubble 2.0 to pop, whether it's housing, tech, or the broader market. F is up 3% on the day. We're at the top.
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Sep 1, 2017 16:09
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Josh Lyman posted:Someone talk to me I've having a meltdown. Could've sold at pretty much any point yesterday and made 40% but instead I closed up 6%. Friend, it's 2017. If you ever think you're losing money again just double down and wait a few days.
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Sep 2, 2017 02:22
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North Korea set off a hydrogen bomb over the weekend and is reportedly moving an ICBM, speculation is they'll launch in celebration of National Founding Day on September 9. VXX up 4% premarket. Might want to give it a few hours to settle but the hot tip is: XIV is gonna dip. Hope you've got dry powder.
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Sep 5, 2017 12:09
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Agronox posted:Man, was thinking of shorting some futures into the open but got distracted. Oh well. It's over, BTFD now. At some point VIX is going to go parabolic and there's going to be a liquidity crunch on the futures and it's going to be a very exciting day but if it's not up 20% by mid afternoon we'll be back to selling vol into close and tomorrow.
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Sep 5, 2017 18:43
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Small cap Polish software companies, imo
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Sep 7, 2017 22:00
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Think I'm gonna stop rolling my SPY puts now and go long Tesla or whatever.
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Sep 11, 2017 22:32
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^^^ you're misremembering, that was Grindr. North Korea just fired another missile over Japan and VXX has surged almost... 2% after hours. I'm enchanted by how blasé everything is. Soon there will be no more dips to buy.
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Sep 15, 2017 00:17
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paternity suitor posted:I'd compare it to the alternatives (mostly risk free return). All market crashes (like, fast ones, not slow declines) are liquidity events. There's a lot of market cap tied up in ETPs, which are kind of by definition more liquid than the underlying assets. That doesn't matter for QQQ or SPY or TLT because the underlying assets are plenty liquid anyway absent Armageddon but it does for volatility or Bitcoin or junk bond or Pet Insurance Companies of the Pacific Northwest ETFs, where if there's a relatively sharp move down people will be trying to exit the ETF and the ETF will be selling the underlying into a decline, which will exacerbate the move down further. Vol etfs are especially because it's like not even a question that at some point vol will move up hard and the vast majority of VIX futures are traded by the vol etfs so at some point everyone selling vol is going to have to turn around quickly and VIX is going to go way way up but it might secretly be that VIX futures/VXX/XIV and the rest just occupy their own little world now and it wouldn't actually affect stocks or options much at all, or it could be that it drives SPY option prices through the roof and everyone who has a hedged strategy finds out it's impossible to hedge and starts liquidating. Or something else happens. I think probably volatility is its own little world now but I am not smart enough to know. Those aren't necessarily my views and those aren't reasons why the market would decline, but I think they're sensible reasons why a flash crash is more likely than normal.
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Sep 21, 2017 16:00
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Their twitter picture is a lemon, not a citron.
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Sep 27, 2017 21:08
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I bought January 2018 $100 puts on Netflix in May because I figured they were burning billions of dollars a year and their bonds are barely above junk and a couple quarterly reports in everyone would realize how crazy it was and then in August they reported and the CEO said "We are burning billions of dollars a year and our bonds are barely above junk" so an analyst asked "but that's coming to an end, right?" and the CEO said "no, it's never going to end" and the analyst said "that's bad, right?" and the CEO said, "no, actually it's good." And, welp.
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Oct 1, 2017 17:43
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Netflix shows profits in large part because they amortize their content slowly, which probably made sense when their content was primarily The Three Amigos and Princess Bride, where they were buying the rights to stuff on the very long end of the tail (buy the rights to Princess Bride today, just as many people are probably going to watch it in 4 years as will watch it this year). It makes much less sense when you're spending 8 billion a year on self-developed content that is probably going to be 90% watched the year you make it, and that is supposedly the thing that is driving subscriber growth. They raised prices but are essentially planning on spending all the additional cash it will bring in on content. They need to raise prices about $3 a month without increasing spending to be roughly cash flow neutral. That would obviously hurt subscriber growth although I don't know how much. The endgame everybody is planning for is I guess they have everyone in the world subscribed then raise prices to a sustainable level but that's presuming subscribers are stickier than I think is probable when Amazon Prime already exists and a bunch of other companies want to get in on the competition. So right now what they're doing, and the medium term plan, is to finance content creation to drive subscriber growth. This isn't how GAAP looks at it, but to me they are not financing a capital expenditure, which is normal and justifiable, they're financing their production inputs, which is sketchier. The metaphor would be like if Ford borrowed to buy transmission housings and steering wheels then sold every car at a loss. Everything falls apart when they stop growing or if financing dries up. I think there's plenty of ways for them to get on a sustainable path but they're not taking any of them and being rewarded for it so it looks like a time bomb to me.
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Oct 18, 2017 10:49
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Combat Pretzel posted:I'm trying to understand some of those biotech (presumably) pump and dumps that happen lately. Take ONCS today for instance. It got propped up during pre-/post-market hours, and as soon the market's open, it tanks. I have no idea what that means, but as a beginner, it kind of feels like someone's trying to intentionally dupe clueless people. Funny nonetheless. You can't understand small cap biotechs. They're all lottery tickets. Most of them have 1 or 2 products under development. Either it'll pan out and the company will be acquired by one of the big guys for billions or they'll fade away to nothing. If you want to speculate on them you need to be plugged in to back channels at the FDA, medical scientists, and insiders. If there's actually any news it's too late to trade.
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Oct 19, 2017 16:25
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CLF reports before open today. It’s the most fun stock because it moves 10% like every day on no news and the CEO is a fun Brazilian guy with an accent.
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Oct 20, 2017 12:09
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It just keeps buying Southwest Airlines over and over again trying to fill an unfillable void
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Oct 20, 2017 21:39
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A long straddle on OCN going into earnings looks so obviously like free money to me that I'm definitely going to lose money.
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Oct 28, 2017 16:21
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greasyhands posted:Campaign manager of the sitting president is being charged with conspiracy against the united states and the market doesn’t react. Seems pretty small beans next to the second Spanish civil war tbh. Also all political instability is good because it restricts central banks from withdrawing liquidity. The only possible bad news is inflation. Oil's going to have to take off before VIX does (it's started to, a little, but not enough).
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Oct 30, 2017 16:26
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greasyhands posted:I love it. Everyone understands this 'nothing really matters, it doesn't affect mah money' attitude is a huge component of bubble mentalities, yet here everyone is just succumbing to it again. Yes, the campaign chair being charged with high crimes *does* in fact matter (the fact that this first volley is for events occuring before the election is totally irrelevant- you don't conspire with foreign governments to undermine American interests then become a campaign chair. Everyone was wondering why the gently caress Manafort was interested in the chair position in the first place- now we have an indication why), and it has just come to light that Papadopolous has already pled guilty to lying to the FBI, and is cooperating with the investigation (they didnt announce this until after Manafort surrendered for obvious reasons). You think tax reform happens in this kind of environment? Spain is a bigger deal than Brexit, because it's a Euro periphery economy and Euro central bank policy is focused around supporting the Euro periphery. There is a remote but real risk that Spain is the start of the breakup of the Eurozone. That's a total change of the current economic regime, which is a bigger deal than literally anything in American politics including an impeachment or tax reform or whatever. I'd say a shooting war with North Korea would be a bigger deal but I'm not sure.
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Oct 30, 2017 17:01
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