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Baddog
May 12, 2001

MrBigglesworth posted:

Whats the deal on silver when buying in a coin store. A few years back when it was around 11ish I wanted to buy some, but they had this "Ill sell it to you for $4 over spot, making it $15/ounce.

I didnt get the concept, as the silver was right there, in a box, ready to go and Apmex.com on my phone said it was $11ish an ounce, which is what I was wanting to pay.

If I paid $11+$4 and wanted to sell it when it was $12, he would pay me $12, Id still be down overall on the purchase.

And he was saying $4 over PER ounce.

Was he trying to rip me off?


isnt everything in a "coin store" usually marked up 200%, sounds like a deal for them.

If you want to take delivery of your pork bellies and put them in your freezer, you are going to pay a good deal more than your contract states to get them there.

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Baddog
May 12, 2001

Hobologist posted:

This view is largely confined to academics, and among value investors and other people who know what they're doing...


I'm not sure you got the "other people who know what they are doing" on the right side of that equation.

Baddog
May 12, 2001


Where in there is anything that disputes that the increase in return for investing in one stock compensates for the massive risk of investing in only one stock.

If I buy five stocks with the same expected return, I cut my variance tremendously, and don't hurt my expectation - I've reduced risk at no cost to myself, and that's always a good thing, you should get paid to take on risk.

Fuschia was wrong in stating that the expected return is lower from holding one stock versus a basket of similar stocks (I think probably over simplifying), but he's right in saying that you aren't being compensated for being more risky by investing in one vs a basket. And I don't think that was what Hobologist was pointing out.


The rate of return for investing in one stock with 20% EV will be the same as the rate of return for investing in five stocks with 20% EV, but the five stocks will carry much lower risk.

The rate of return for investing in one stock will be lower than the rate of return of a similarly risky but more intelligent strategy (what i think fuschia meant).

Baddog fucked around with this message at 22:33 on Feb 17, 2010

Baddog
May 12, 2001
That pennystock thing should be based on market cap and volume, not share price, but then 90% of the people in here couldn't figure out when it applies or not.

Baddog
May 12, 2001

Hobologist posted:

Rentech (RTK) has a market cap of 220 million and has an average volume of 2.6 million shares a day. But it's still a penny stock by price and by the nature of the company itself.

220 mill is a pretty drat small company. I think 300-400 mill is about low end of the range for "small cap". And volume when you are trying to figure out if you are going to get raped on spreads getting in and out (or if a post on something awful is going to manipulate the stock) is usually figured on dollar volume, not just share volume.

I believe Ford, even at its low of a buck and change, still had a market cap of several billions, and traded several hundred million dollars of shares a day.

RTK trades 3 million dollars worth of shares on a good day.

Baddog
May 12, 2001

Ned posted:

Well, I find SLNM to be kind of interesting. They are actually a pretty well established brand and that alone should be worth more than their market cap. They have a bit of debt but nothing too crazy.

Shrug. Here are financials. http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bs?s=SLNM.OB

I was just asking a strange question. I look at their traffic and figure they have to be worth something even with outstanding debt. I think there are actually a lot of good things about salon.com - great name, valuable brand, a nice backlog of good content. If they can transition well to the iPad and future devices where people might be more willing to pay for content that travels with them they might make money.

There aren't really many magazine/news sites out there with a larger audience and a longer history than salon.com. I work on a site that ranks a bit better than salon.com in Quantcast and see a lot of potential. So when I see that the current market valuation is 100k, I ask questions. The domain itself has to be worth 500k to a million.

That is an interesting hypothetical. I would imagine that at this point the debt holders are really in control of the company, and the stock holders are way in the back of the bus.

Baddog
May 12, 2001

Midget Mafia posted:

I'd re-evaluate each stock you own based on the information today. Whichever of them you'd be least interested in buying at it's current price is the one you should sell first.

This is probably the best overall advice even after taking taxes into account.

Baddog
May 12, 2001

Dr. Jackal posted:

if only we could short BBI endlessly...

I'm always kind of tempted to try writing a bunch of calls on stocks like these.

Looks like someone actually bought 136 oct 2010 $2.5 calls today at .1.

I mean, I would bet that the rapture would happen before blockbuster trades at 2.50 again. That just seems like an easy 1K+ to write those calls.

Edit - I guess part of the problem is getting approved to write naked calls.

Baddog fucked around with this message at 21:31 on Apr 23, 2010

Baddog
May 12, 2001

mlmp08 posted:

F is falling hard today...

ford was at 8 in 2008 before the crash, now its over 13.

Isn't that some irrational exuberance?

Baddog
May 12, 2001
anyone have any plays for the oil spill being worse than people expect?

BP probably owns its own chemical "detergent" manufacturers? There doesnt seem to be any sort of proprietary chemical to clean up oil in any case...

US govt is supplying the manpower.

Who else is going to benefit?

Baddog
May 12, 2001

nice thanks!

Baddog
May 12, 2001
well BP and GS are both still up!

I think that kind of a resistance to any more drop on a day like today is saying a lot about how much they've been sold off.

Baddog
May 12, 2001

ayekappy posted:

Sweet, so since they dropped about 15-20% in the last 3 weeks, does that mean the indexes will do the same over the next 3 weeks since GS and BP were ahead of the game?

I don't think GS and BP are leading indicators of the overall market, I was stating that my belief is that they were very oversold because of the bad publicity pointed at those 2 companies in particular. Thats why I bought them, and I think the fact that they held up today in the face of massive selling pressure across the board is at least partly confirmation of that hypothesis, and that people are recognizing that those companies are oversold now.

Baddog
May 12, 2001

Mulletstation posted:

there's no way to know BP is oversold considering they might end up having to pay like a years worth of profits or something for the spill.

They've already lost way more in market cap than the fine will ever be.

Baddog
May 12, 2001
gently caress i put a market buy order in when we hit 9.8k and it still hasnt executed

its sitting there taunting me - did the markets close?

Baddog
May 12, 2001

Baddog posted:

gently caress i put a market buy order in when we hit 9.8k and it still hasn't executed

its sitting there taunting me - did the markets close?

ok etrade was just slammed and not updating, this is nuts.

Baddog
May 12, 2001
I'm pissed at myself because I was liquidating and telling myself not to buy until we had a correction, then I couldn't resist getting into GS and BP. Well they are still only down 1% on me right now.

Baddog
May 12, 2001
I feel sick about owning C right now :(

I do feel good about my awesome "investment" instinct of hitting F5 every second while pooping my pants until the indexes finally ticked up, then putting in a massive buy order for the stock on my watch list which was down the most at that point.

That was just an insane loving cliff. I felt so retarded buying into that. I'm sorry I didn't have something like PG or SCHA on my lists though!

Baddog
May 12, 2001

I WANT TO EAT BABBY posted:

You might want to do more research on the topic than asking a subforum on an Internet Comedy Site.

scary thing is that its probably better advice than 99% of the other poo poo out there.

Baddog
May 12, 2001
If its a 300+ rally tomorrow, looking like a 2nd chance to take some profits to me.

Baddog
May 12, 2001

I WANT TO EAT BABBY posted:

Shorting China like my name was Palmerson. Unless something changes overnight I'm selling some of the following at tomorrow's open: CTRP, EJ, TAO and FUQI. Here's hoping my broker can locate the borrows.

I hope they didn't!

If I had bigger balls I would look to short BIDU, that poo poo looks insanely overpriced to me. Stepping in front of that train might be suicidal though.

Baddog
May 12, 2001
I think your argument is good for perhaps getting out of the big manufacturing/exporting chinese stocks (I sold my FXI, and I'm rethinking about buying back in at some point).

But the smaller internally focused stocks (like the network/solar stocks) seem to still have huge upside potentials as the middle class expands and they push to use alternative energies. There really is a massive push to solar right now, every department store I went into had solar heaters for sale and they were going up on top of every building.

Baddog
May 12, 2001
ok first, diversifying 400 dollars is a joke. Just stick it into an index fund for 10 dollars. Even that is painful, 2.5%.

do you have another 401k you can add to this rollover?

You can also transfer up to 5k into that account as your roth IRA.

So get some more money into that account somehow, put it into (1) index fund, and forget about it for awhile.

Baddog
May 12, 2001

sublyme posted:

No other 401k, I have 4k in savings but that's about 6 months living expenses so I'd like to keep that liquid in case of injury, losing my job, etc etc. Guess I'll just throw the $400 into an index fund, like I said I don't know much about investing so I didn't realize 400 bucks was so worthless. ETrade's automated crap confused me. Sorry for derailing your thread, guys, I reposted over in the newbie thread so you can just ignore this.

its not so worthless, but you're just going to get killed on commissions if you try to do anything much with it.

Here are some common ETFs to look into. spy or qqqq probably have the lowest expense ratios. I'm not sure what they are exactly these days, but it should be pretty low.

iwo - russell 2000
qqqq - nasdaq 100
spy - s&p 500
dia - dow jones

Baddog
May 12, 2001

MrBigglesworth posted:

I can understand pumping the cloud, but where is that cloud gonna be stored? Hence my inability to understand why storage stocks arent doing well with all the cloud craze.

Cloud storage reduces overhead tremendously.

Instead of 100 people each having a couple terrabytes free storage as overhead, maybe there is a couple terrabytes free for that whole group (purchased in bulk at even thinner margins than usual).

edit - I believe western digitals percent of the SSD market is much smaller than traditional drives, right?

Baddog
May 12, 2001

ayekappy posted:

Good game banme challenge:

ayekappy: 2 banme challenge: 0

whats it going to do tomorrow, oh oracle of BFC.

Baddog
May 12, 2001

tehschulman posted:


I want a list of companies that are getting/have been party to the massive sell-off that's happening, mostly due to the Europe situation I assume, but will regain traction in a few months due to being stable and good long-term stocks.


thats what we all want...

Baddog
May 12, 2001
so many of these banks are playing all kinds of games with their balance sheets that it is hard to know exactly how deep in the poo poo they are.

So there was a pretty good chance, at least to us relatively uninformed investors, that citibank might go all the way to zero.

Baddog
May 12, 2001
they can always just do a reverse split like aig did, 1 for 20, to get their stock back from micro land.

Baddog
May 12, 2001

Cheesemaster200 posted:

Their market cap didn't go anywhere though...

I know, this guy just thinks that because the stock is down at .05 or something, he cant lose that much more on it because it can only drop a few more pennies (and presuming it doesn't go busto).

But they can 1-20 it, and then it has a lot of room to keep dropping.

Baddog
May 12, 2001
yah bp has really managed to gently caress this situation up.

Now they've got congressmen yelling at them to hold their dividend... like having to pay the dividend has anything to do with the anemic cleanup efforts.

I thought this was easy money back at 45, and its looking more like a loving circus every goddamn day.

Baddog
May 12, 2001
I think BP is almost textbook mismanagement of the whole incident, top to bottom so far. Had no idea they would bungle this up so badly. I'm still holding on because I just cannot imagine how this disaster will cost them more than 100 billion.

But I guess if they manage to fire sale all the assets to some other company in return for diamond-encrusted golden parachutes, then leave all the shareholders holding the bag containing the shell of whats left of BP, I'm hosed.

Baddog
May 12, 2001

JiUC posted:


Yeah, this is pretty much the plan. I don't have the equipment, L2 knowledge or desire to get into the really short term stuff. I'm planning on using resistance/support brackets, EMAs, RSIs and candlesticks quite a bit.

Godspeed

Baddog
May 12, 2001

Josh Lyman posted:

They don't. In fact, companies often use the same underwriters for an SEO, EVEN when the IPO was underpriced.

People keep using (the same) real estate brokers even when their advice leads to selling below market value, just to move the house quickly and collect the commission.

I'm sure IPO'ing a company is a pretty weird and arcane process for almost all corporate execs.

Baddog
May 12, 2001
Check out these assholes. I had a lot of money in one of their funds.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/20/business/20stra.html?_r=1

Baddog
May 12, 2001

Jack posted:

This cloud computing crap is a bubble if I ever saw one.

I dunno, its pretty slick. The overhead of maintaining all your own servers is terrible. Now you can just tell all your employees to bring their own laptops, maybe you'll provide monitors at work if they are lucky. No hardware overhead at all.

Baddog
May 12, 2001

Method Loser posted:

I'll answer this one, since this is getting to be repetatitve, but this is a good question. I moved halfway across the country for a year, lived in a lovely apartment, cut all contact with my family, and worked as a cook in fast food for 12 months because I wanted to know what it was like living like most people. So no, I'm not some ivory-tower sheltered idiot that knows nothing of the real world.

You sound like such a child of privilege, but your dad only has 500k saved up? Or is he just giving you access to part of his savings? I mean, if that's it, you aren't really that far above "most people".

Baddog
May 12, 2001
When all these leveraged etfs get close to zero, what are they going to do with them? Reset, inverse splits?

VXX looks like it is going to zero as well, even though it isn't really "leveraged". I think the way its price is derived (short term futures and some handwaving?) might make it susceptible to that same "Volatility Decay" as leveraged etfs.

That "ibankcoin" guy sure loves holding onto his vxx for months and months though.

edit - found this http://vixandmore.blogspot.com/2009/05/vxx-calculations-vix-futures-and-time.html

Looks like price erosion isn't really due to "volatility decay" like the leveraged etfs, but more due to the constant rollover of the short term future contracts, and their normal upward sloping (contango) trend.

this is kind of interesting too

http://www.bestcashcow.com/stocks_-_options_-_mutual_funds/article/surlytrader/hedging-equities-with-vix-futures-vxx-and-vxz

shorting 1 share of vxx for every 2 shares of vxz purchased would have made about $50 per, since jan 09 when they were introduced. As well as giving you a bit of a net volatility hedge. Thoughts?


Baddog fucked around with this message at 20:29 on Jul 26, 2010

Baddog
May 12, 2001

ChubbyEmoBabe posted:

I haven't seen any go anywhere near zero but I have seen them reverse split frequently. (fas/faz) come to mind.

wow, faz is crazy, thats some serious decay right there. 1452 to 14.

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Baddog
May 12, 2001
This is why it is so hard to sustain generational wealth. Your kids turn out to be snot-nosed little drug addicts with absolutely no loving clue, in need of a good throat punching, spewing money left and right.

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