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Malcolm XML
Aug 8, 2009

I always knew it would end like this.


Fame Douglas posted:

Why would Intel have to change. They're making bank, technology leadership doesn't actually matter.

they just got hammered in the market for loving up 7nm. the market sometimes cares about future cashflow too

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shrike82
Jun 11, 2005

Get the fuck in your cage and shut the fuck up, you stupid fucking Mexicans. Your voice doesn't fucking matter unless you support OUR rapist.

OBAMA DID NOTHING WRONG


The market is dumb. They're pricing AMD and Nvidia at tech bubble levels so let's see where we end up.

punk rebel ecks
Dec 11, 2010

I will NEVER become THE PIRATE KING!!! I am just a lazy, hypocritical idiot.


shrike82 posted:

The market is dumb. They're pricing AMD and Nvidia at tech bubble levels so let's see where we end up.

Yeah. I don't want to build again until prices dip down a bit.

DrDork
Dec 29, 2003
commanding officer of the Army of Dorkness

punk rebel ecks posted:

Yeah. I don't want to build again until prices dip down a bit.

Their stock prices have little to do with the prices they're charging for their actual products, though. And for pricing dips...uh....I'd expect to be waiting a long time. NVidia figured out they can juice people for more than they'd originally thought on video cards, and all signs are pointing to another inventory-constrained launch, so good luck there. AMD is pricing their CPUs as high as they think they can get away with because they know enthusiasts will buy them, and they are also inventory constrained due to limits on TSMC fab time.

The only one who's likely to drop prices anytime soon is Intel, and maybe AMD on their GPU side if RDNA2 gets the snot beat out of it by Ampere and DLSS 2.0, which at this point seems more likely than not.

Though if you're ok with used, this winter should be a great time to pick up a gently used 10- or 20- series GPU and a 9-series Intel chip at a solid discount.

punk rebel ecks
Dec 11, 2010

I will NEVER become THE PIRATE KING!!! I am just a lazy, hypocritical idiot.


DrDork posted:

Their stock prices have little to do with the prices they're charging for their actual products, though. And for pricing dips...uh....I'd expect to be waiting a long time. NVidia figured out they can juice people for more than they'd originally thought on video cards, and all signs are pointing to another inventory-constrained launch, so good luck there. AMD is pricing their CPUs as high as they think they can get away with because they know enthusiasts will buy them, and they are also inventory constrained due to limits on TSMC fab time.

The only one who's likely to drop prices anytime soon is Intel, and maybe AMD on their GPU side if RDNA2 gets the snot beat out of it by Ampere and DLSS 2.0, which at this point seems more likely than not.

Though if you're ok with used, this winter should be a great time to pick up a gently used 10- or 20- series GPU and a 9-series Intel chip at a solid discount.

I'm not going to build a PC until I can make a build that outperforms the Xbox Series X for $1,000.

Zedsdeadbaby
Jun 14, 2008

You have been called out, in the ways of old.


shrike82 posted:

The market is dumb. They're pricing AMD and Nvidia at tech bubble levels so let's see where we end up.

tbf AMD is providing hardware for a lot of different segments now with their epyc and desktop lineup, as well as consoles which are by all indications going to sell like hotcakes again, and nvidia is pretty much perfectly positioned for the inevitable AI boom. Shills of both corps have plenty of reason to be optimistic. Intel shills are on suicide watch.

Dr. Fishopolis
Aug 31, 2004

ROBOT

the market is definitely dumb, it's literally a reactive graph of rich people feelings about things they barely grasp.

however, right now the market feels like AMD and Nvidia are gonna make a bunch of cash in the next few years while intel... isn't, which seems like the world's most obvious take.

Nomyth
Mar 15, 2013

And if a Nyto get a attitude
Pop it like it's hot
Pop it like it's hot
Pop it like it's hot


Intel CPU and Platform Discussion: The bandit, in the forest in Burma, did you catch him? Yes. How? We burned the forest down.

DrDork
Dec 29, 2003
commanding officer of the Army of Dorkness

punk rebel ecks posted:

I'm not going to build a PC until I can make a build that outperforms the Xbox Series X for $1,000.

So this winter, then? I mean, you can get more or less parity (at least in terms of on-paper specs, since we don't really know how the Xbox/PS5 are going to perform in practice yet) with a 2060S + 3700X. That'll run you about $700, plus $75 for 16GB RAM, ~$100 for a mobo of your choice, $150 for a 1TB SSD, PSU and case to suit. So you can do it right now for probably around $1200, and those prices will fall once the new generation of stuff drops this winter.

Which is really saying quite a lot about those consoles, considering they're gonna be under $600.

SourKraut
Nov 20, 2005
Probation
Can't post for 22 hours!


Nomyth posted:

Intel CPU and Platform Discussion: The bandit, in the forest in Prescott, did you catch him? Yes. How? It burned itself down.

FTFY

punk rebel ecks
Dec 11, 2010

I will NEVER become THE PIRATE KING!!! I am just a lazy, hypocritical idiot.


DrDork posted:

So this winter, then? I mean, you can get more or less parity (at least in terms of on-paper specs, since we don't really know how the Xbox/PS5 are going to perform in practice yet) with a 2060S + 3700X. That'll run you about $700, plus $75 for 16GB RAM, ~$100 for a mobo of your choice, $150 for a 1TB SSD, PSU and case to suit. So you can do it right now for probably around $1200, and those prices will fall once the new generation of stuff drops this winter.

Which is really saying quite a lot about those consoles, considering they're gonna be under $600.

Yeah. I'm shooting for next year or 2022 T the latest.

My 2500knis showing its age.

DrDork
Dec 29, 2003
commanding officer of the Army of Dorkness

punk rebel ecks posted:

My 2500knis showing its age.

Those 2500k's are some of the most crazy "how the gently caress is this still viable?" pieces of hardware I've seen in a long, long time. As has been said more than once, I think the new consoles will finally put the nail in their coffin, but drat, it's been a good 9 year run.

'Course that also says a lot about how little Intel has been moving the needle on CPUs in that time.

If you have enough of a backlog of games to keep you occupied, late 2021/2022 we might see DDR5 platforms come out, which should be interesting, albeit fairly expensive off the start.

Twerk from Home
Jan 17, 2009

This avatar brought to you by the 'save our dead gay forums' foundation.


DrDork posted:

Those 2500k's are some of the most crazy "how the gently caress is this still viable?" pieces of hardware I've seen in a long, long time. As has been said more than once, I think the new consoles will finally put the nail in their coffin, but drat, it's been a good 9 year run.

'Course that also says a lot about how little Intel has been moving the needle on CPUs in that time.

If you have enough of a backlog of games to keep you occupied, late 2021/2022 we might see DDR5 platforms come out, which should be interesting, albeit fairly expensive off the start.

I'm following the rule of "don't build a PC before your current PC is unsatisfactory", and i'm perfectly happy gaming on a 2500K/GTX 1060 somehow. I was upgrading every 3 years before then like clockwork then suddently... 9 years.

I looked at the transistor count just to compare: Apparently a 2500K/2600K has 1.1 billion transistors. A current iPhone has 8.5 billion transistors in the SoC.

Twerk from Home fucked around with this message at 16:48 on Jul 29, 2020

DrDork
Dec 29, 2003
commanding officer of the Army of Dorkness

Twerk from Home posted:

I'm following the rule of "don't build a PC before your current PC is unsatisfactory", and i'm perfectly happy gaming on a 2500K/GTX 1060 somehow. I was upgrading every 3 years before then like clockwork then suddently... 9 years.

I looked at the transistor count just to compare: Apparently a 2500K/2600K has 1.1 billion transistors. A current iPhone has 8.5 billion transistors in the SoC.

Yeah, if you're happy with it, keep on keepin' on. I only upgraded off my 2500k because the motherboard literally burned a trace out to the DIMM slots, and I've been riding a 5820k since then with no plans on upgrading that until DDR5.

The transistor count isn't exactly fair, since the Apple SoC also includes the GPU cores and a bunch of other stuff that the 2500k doesn't. But, yeah, a Ryzen 7 3700x is around 3.8B transistors. poo poo's gotten a lot more dense since 2011!

FuturePastNow
May 19, 2014



College Slice

I'm still using a Xeon w3690 (aka Core i7 990X). But I am replacing it soon. I actually don't think I need markedly more CPU power than an old 6c/12t Gulftown. But the rest of the X58 platform is letting me down. DDR3 I can't upgrade further without throwing good money after bad, slow SSD speeds, slow PCIe speeds and needing add-on cards for USB 3 ports. I also feel a burning desire to trace rays, but any better video card will be CPU-bound at this point.

Encrypted
Feb 25, 2016



DrDork posted:

The transistor count isn't exactly fair, since the Apple SoC also includes the GPU cores and a bunch of other stuff that the 2500k doesn't. But, yeah, a Ryzen 7 3700x is around 3.8B transistors. poo poo's gotten a lot more dense since 2011!

No no its actually fair since the 2500k also has a GPU built in and can support up to TWO displays! Unlike the anemic iphone gpu that only need to drive a single tiny display.
Also you see the 2500k can run way more apps on windows than iOS.

All that and intel did with like 1/8 of the transistors! Intel was truly ahead of its time.

VorpalFish
Mar 22, 2007
reasonably awesometm

The fact that even a bad 2500k will clock to 4.2+ all core probably doesn't hurt.

BIG HEADLINE
Jun 13, 2006

Make your move...'cause mine's gonna be ugly.

VorpalFish posted:

The fact that even a bad 2500k will clock to 4.2+ all core probably doesn't hurt.

Yeah, I never even bothered trying to clock mine past 4.4.

Nomyth
Mar 15, 2013

And if a Nyto get a attitude
Pop it like it's hot
Pop it like it's hot
Pop it like it's hot



This does make me think that if Intel ever does fall apart/get broken up/bought out, there absolutely will be federal indictments in the pipeline, so to speak.

A nationalistic perspective would definitely make the connection that Intel continuing to make products keeps the United States in the competitive game of semiconductor manufacturing, like a car company to mechanical goods. I guess Micron still fabs memory, but who else on a large scale?

DrDork
Dec 29, 2003
commanding officer of the Army of Dorkness

Nomyth posted:

I guess Micron still fabs memory, but who else on a large scale?

No one--it's Intel, Samsung, and TSMC as the big players. GloFo is still out there, of course, but stuck on much older nodes and with apparently little to no interest on developing newer ones. There are some others out there, too, like UMC, SMIC, PowerChip, etc., but TSMC is larger than most of those all put together, and of course none of them other than GloFo have a US presence.

silence_kit
Jul 14, 2011


edit: deleted, missed context in the post I quoted

silence_kit fucked around with this message at 22:29 on Jul 29, 2020

Dr. Fishopolis
Aug 31, 2004

ROBOT

I'm still happily gaming on a delidded and thoroughly overclocked 4770k. I'm just getting to the point where frametimes are starting to get out of whack in newer engines (i.e. Decima) but i'm still not gonna bother upgrading that rig until zen 3 at least.

edit: vvv

Dr. Fishopolis fucked around with this message at 22:37 on Jul 29, 2020

ufarn
May 30, 2009


Dr. Fishopolis posted:

I'm still happily gaming on a delidded and thoroughly overclocked 4770k. I'm just getting to the point where frametimes are starting to get out of whack in newer engines (i.e. Decima) but i'm still not gonna bother upgrading that rig until zen 3 at least.
Medium was updated with its specs list, and for some reason, their CPUs under Recommended are i5-9600 and 3700X.

I'm not really sure if there's some "next-gen" thing that is responsible for this jump, but it sure is a conspicuous one.

Perfect Potato
Mar 4, 2009


DrDork posted:

Those 2500k's are some of the most crazy "how the gently caress is this still viable?" pieces of hardware I've seen in a long, long time. As has been said more than once, I think the new consoles will finally put the nail in their coffin, but drat, it's been a good 9 year run.
Yeah I slapped a 1080 in and can run stuff like RE3 at 75 FPS maxed and MHW at 50-60FPS, both games that have had pc releases in 2020. It's pretty insane how more likely it is that my now ancient PSU will burn my house down before the 2500k ever loses 100% relevancy. Going to have to get a 3700x build or something for Cyberpunk and all those CPU heavy games I've been avoiding though

screamin and creamin
Sep 15, 2003



Dr. Fishopolis posted:

the market is definitely dumb, it's literally a reactive graph of rich people feelings about things they barely grasp.

however, right now the market feels like AMD and Nvidia are gonna make a bunch of cash in the next few years while intel... isn't, which seems like the world's most obvious take.

If only there was a way to force people to not pay undue heed to AMD and Nvidia (not to mention ARM-based detritus) and their misguided, certainly ill-fated attempts and instead back up the strong and righteous cause of Intel, because if only given enough time, Intel will surely advance their processes.

shrike82
Jun 11, 2005

Get the fuck in your cage and shut the fuck up, you stupid fucking Mexicans. Your voice doesn't fucking matter unless you support OUR rapist.

OBAMA DID NOTHING WRONG


it's possible to believe that AMD and Nvidia have good products and also that their stocks are priced at dumb levels. take a look at their p/e ratios.

i guess i'm blessed to be an overpaid computer toucher but the US stock market specifically feels like late stage capitalism given everything else going on in the country.

Dr. Fishopolis
Aug 31, 2004

ROBOT

Of course they're overvalued, but so is literally the entire market. It's a bit silly to even talk about with the whole thing due to collapse at any moment.

Fabulousity
Dec 29, 2008

= (Displacement through a hetero medium) / Time


Nap Ghost

Dr. Fishopolis posted:

the market is definitely dumb, it's literally a reactive graph of rich people feelings about things they barely grasp.

Just quoting this because it so wonderfully and simply dilutes how the stock market works into a single sentence.

2500K gets to go to the same Valhalla that Celeron 300A is sitting around in.

Malcolm XML
Aug 8, 2009

I always knew it would end like this.


Should I sell amd call for gaming pc money rn pls help

shrike82 posted:

it's possible to believe that AMD and Nvidia have good products and also that their stocks are priced at dumb levels. take a look at their p/e ratios.

i guess i'm blessed to be an overpaid computer toucher but the US stock market specifically feels like late stage capitalism given everything else going on in the country.

The market can remain irrational longer than you can be solvent. Take a bear position if you feel this way. Amd has genuine reason to be popping -- intel is no. Competitive for the next 3 years and amd is executing in line or better than projections. Nvidia has a monopoly on gpus the only wide scale ml ai processors to get traction.

Stock pricing is usually an opinion on future earnings not current ones and/or completely divorced from fundamentals (tesla nerds want to give Elon money so they it cheap for him to raise cash with an insane stock price)

MaxxBot
Oct 6, 2003

you could have clapped

you should have clapped!!


shrike82 posted:

it's possible to believe that AMD and Nvidia have good products and also that their stocks are priced at dumb levels. take a look at their p/e ratios.

i guess i'm blessed to be an overpaid computer toucher but the US stock market specifically feels like late stage capitalism given everything else going on in the country.

I bought Tesla stock on a whim last September when it was in the mid 200s, when it got up to 1000 I thought "haha how absurd, surely this will crash back down soon." I don't even know what the gently caress is going on anymore.

shrike82
Jun 11, 2005

Get the fuck in your cage and shut the fuck up, you stupid fucking Mexicans. Your voice doesn't fucking matter unless you support OUR rapist.

OBAMA DID NOTHING WRONG


i'm not going to complain about my stock portfolio but number continually going up isn't going to do much for me if my neighborhood gets burnt down in the eviction riots of 2021.

taqueso
Mar 8, 2004









Fun Shoe

Yeah about that.. welp

Mr.PayDay
Jan 2, 2004
life is short - play hard

DrDork posted:

In the short term, you're right. But it's not so simple for the long term. On this trajectory they're going to lose large chunks of the datacenter market, which is enormously lucrative. They're fine with mass sales of cheap chips for now because AMD can't buy enough TSMC time to compete toe to toe, but that can and will change if TSMC keeps getting new nodes faster than Intel, and/or Samsung's 8nm and beyond turns out to be competitive.

They're not going out of business anytime soon, but they need to figure their poo poo out or they're gonna end up with cratering stock prices.

The last year most CPU discussions read as if Intel is done.
AMD all the way, best priced performance ratio and the 3xxx Ryzen wipe the floor with Intel.

In reality the Enterprise and Server market prints money and Intel owns 90 % of the Cloud, Data Center and 24/7 High end critical business SLA infrastructures and dominates the virtualization backends.
I was part of several 7 and 8 digit Million Euro projects where almost 70.000 clients got new backends. Data Centers and Virtualization.
AMD is a non factor here and failed to take the hurdles of the service partnerships when it comes to delivery, reaction times and portfolio.

Beside that, every tech and gaming magazine labels Intel as the fastest gaming CPUs.

No matter if itís Toms Hardware or Computerbase, the top 5 fastest gaming CPUs are Intel, Intel, Intel, Intel and, yes, Intel.

Every 2080Ti owner I now pairs his GPU with the i9 top models.
Enthusiasts and fps junkies still buy Intel.

I get that Intel completely gets stampeded in the gaming and retails and small/private business application segments the last 2 years, minus the fps pc master race market.

But the 90% market share of the big data and high end business segments are Intels golden goose.
At least still and for now.

DrDork
Dec 29, 2003
commanding officer of the Army of Dorkness

Mr.PayDay posted:

At least still and for now.

Yeah, that last bit is what I'm saying. Intel is fine for now. But AMDs products are strictly superior in price and performance in a lot of datacenter applications, and it's not going to take all that long for people to figure out they can cut their CapEx by 1/3 by going with AMD. And with Apple soon moving a lot of their stuff off the 7nm nodes to chase 5nm, AMD might have considerably more breathing room in terms of being able to produce the volume needed to make realistic bids on large projects in a year or so. SLAs, support, etc, will still likely keep them out of some markets, but every dollar they snag out there is a dollar Intel didn't get, and at some point that starts to hurt.

The point isn't so much that Intel is hosed today, but that they need to change course or they're gonna be hosed at some time in the next few years. And that's gonna be a challenge considering the lead time for advanced processor tech.

Dr. Fishopolis
Aug 31, 2004

ROBOT

Saying AMD "only" has 10% server market share is a bit of a weird point to make in favor of intel, considering it was around 1% a little over three years ago.

Malcolm XML
Aug 8, 2009

I always knew it would end like this.


Mr.PayDay posted:

The last year most CPU discussions read as if Intel is done.
AMD all the way, best priced performance ratio and the 3xxx Ryzen wipe the floor with Intel.

In reality the Enterprise and Server market prints money and Intel owns 90 % of the Cloud, Data Center and 24/7 High end critical business SLA infrastructures and dominates the virtualization backends.
I was part of several 7 and 8 digit Million Euro projects where almost 70.000 clients got new backends. Data Centers and Virtualization.
AMD is a non factor here and failed to take the hurdles of the service partnerships when it comes to delivery, reaction times and portfolio.

Beside that, every tech and gaming magazine labels Intel as the fastest gaming CPUs.

No matter if itís Toms Hardware or Computerbase, the top 5 fastest gaming CPUs are Intel, Intel, Intel, Intel and, yes, Intel.

Every 2080Ti owner I now pairs his GPU with the i9 top models.
Enthusiasts and fps junkies still buy Intel.

I get that Intel completely gets stampeded in the gaming and retails and small/private business application segments the last 2 years, minus the fps pc master race market.

But the 90% market share of the big data and high end business segments are Intels golden goose.
At least still and for now.

Dr. Fishopolis posted:

Saying AMD "only" has 10% server market share is a bit of a weird point to make in favor of intel, considering it was around 1% a little over three years ago.

it's change and growth over the next few years that matters. Intel internally was admitting they'd cede quite a bit to AMD who was a non-player in that space. Ryzen 4000 is unexpectedly really good in laptops putting serious price competition in the space. The laptop makers didn't believe it which is why the 2019/2020 crop was low end junk not the premium stuff. If AMD can capture 25% of the laptop market, that'd be great for them, up from nothing right now.


DrDork posted:

Yeah, that last bit is what I'm saying. Intel is fine for now. But AMDs products are strictly superior in price and performance in a lot of datacenter applications, and it's not going to take all that long for people to figure out they can cut their CapEx by 1/3 by going with AMD. And with Apple soon moving a lot of their stuff off the 7nm nodes to chase 5nm, AMD might have considerably more breathing room in terms of being able to produce the volume needed to make realistic bids on large projects in a year or so. SLAs, support, etc, will still likely keep them out of some markets, but every dollar they snag out there is a dollar Intel didn't get, and at some point that starts to hurt.

The point isn't so much that Intel is hosed today, but that they need to change course or they're gonna be hosed at some time in the next few years. And that's gonna be a challenge considering the lead time for advanced processor tech.

AMD's strategy appears to be letting the mobile people pay for the bleeding edge process then snapping up the capacity as it gets the kinks cleared out. Apple is on different 7nm gen than AMD iirc and will immediately jump to 5nm as it becomes available. AMD will wait a year for Zen 4 on 5nm.

Mr.PayDay
Jan 2, 2004
life is short - play hard

Dr. Fishopolis posted:

Saying AMD "only" has 10% server market share is a bit of a weird point to make in favor of intel, considering it was around 1% a little over three years ago.

Thatís right, they took like 6 % market share form Intel since 2018 alone IIRC.

The big data, ai and business/enterprise contracts (you usually donít buy CPUs there but bundles of partnerships from a group of 2-5 IT service+infrastructure+component and ITIL Providers , depending on your project and migration or transition etc). saves Intels rear end, itís often a package long term contracts and Service Level Agreements and 3-5+ years of server hardware and platform delivery etc.

The next EPYC iteration desperately needs service partnerships if AMD wants to liquidate another 10% of shares.
They got the best in slot CPUs, and surely even more uncontested with Zen 4, but they face a service, resource and capacity uphill journey where Intel still chills in his camp, despite all problems.

Mr.PayDay
Jan 2, 2004
life is short - play hard

Whenever public private partnerships and multimillion euro projects including server hardware are in sight, the Microsoft and Intel KAMs are there. I never saw AMD, and I do this stuff since 20 years now.
This might change, and I feel AMD hr staff should send out more sales managers and people who are firm in call for tender situations.
If they donít capitalize of Intels stagnation, they miss out their maybe biggest opportunity of the last decade.

Again, itís less a CPU quality or performance question but - we are speaking of critical business backends - a question of services and delivery.
This is where Intel still is lightyears ahead.

Dr. Fishopolis
Aug 31, 2004

ROBOT

A lot of what you're describing is just regulatory capture and institutional rot leading to forever contracts, intel could live on for eons that way. Maybe they'll get real weird with it like Microsoft does. Or they could just become AOL, quietly reaping billions from forgotten dialup subscriptions.

I don't think AMD is going to leap into the government / education space that easily, but they're definitely creeping into AI and cloud compute and there be growth in them thar sectors.

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Mr.PayDay
Jan 2, 2004
life is short - play hard

Absolutely, itís about persistence and maybe they could drive more into the technology-service-bundle partnerships in the future.
Intel just has the benefit of fixed contracts and the trust of the ĄHyper Scalerď in the industry that still is in the Big Data and Cloud transition and Expansion.

Intel was there when all evolutions and innovations happened the last 2 decades, hence their marketshare since this exploded, and thatĎs what allows them to stay relevant and print billions.
No one questions that Intel lost the current CPU race, right now and per today, but Intels partners wonĎt (and often canít ) abandon them suddenly.

We need AMD to gain more shares and stay strong , because Ąreal and healthy competition = goodď is not an empty phrase .
I would love to not pay the price of the moon the next 10 years for Intel services in my backend design corsets.

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