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lol how the hell is their stock falling Congress just gave them billions
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Jul 30, 2022 21:47
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Shipon posted:lol how the hell is their stock falling Congress just gave them billions The impact of getting money from the government was priced in when people found out about it (a long time ago). The impact of current events is priced in now.
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Jul 30, 2022 22:17
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Dr. Fishopolis posted:Do you think that stock prices just go up and down randomly based on the whims of computers without any input from the realities of business or the economy? It means that intel missed its earnings targets by a mile and the market reacted in an expected fashion. Intel sells HFC platforms now that they bought BlackRock, and they're systems made to run at 5.2GHz on all cores with latency-reduced memory - just to get an edge on the people in the HFC datacenter that can't afford it. Similarly, all the servers are wired the same, length-wise, irrespective of distance-to-switch - which are all SFP+ equipped cut-through switches. HFC traders have invested billions into creating line-of-sight relay radio chains across the US with clear Fresnel zones - because that's marginally faster than going through all the hops to get from coast to coast.
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Jul 30, 2022 23:01
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i'm aware that HFT exists, but they just told their shareholders "we pooped our pants and missed earnings by 58%" i don't think you have to invent an AI trading conspiracy to explain why the price is falling.
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Jul 31, 2022 01:40
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It's the pitfalls of being a publically-traded company: The people investing don't know REALLY what you do except in the broadest possible terms ("make computer chips", "make cars", "sell things") or at all (search engine, social media) and they don't care, they only want to see A > B and by a lot, and if not, stock go down. SwissArmyDruid fucked around with this message at 09:49 on Jul 31, 2022 |
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Jul 31, 2022 02:07
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As mentioned, the stock also fell when intel was beating expectations. People then look for secondary effects to explain the drop. The drops aren't entirely without reason, but the magnitude is likely much higher due to automatic trading.
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Jul 31, 2022 08:10
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These market numbers are LSD-induced funny money and have been ever since they shot up from 20k to nearly 30k on the DJI with zero correlating domestic productivity increase. The fundamentals no longer make sense. Remember that, halfway through that huge 50% increase in market  value , collectively these companies were given two trillion in arbitrary breaks plus extremely favorable lending terms elsewhere and burned it all on stock buybacks.Particularly for the tech sector (but a little less so for manufacturing like Intel), investment has been capricious. This apparently has been driving analysts up a wall. A friend of my family has basically quit over it--three decades in telecoms and tech research and now more than ever nothing makes any loving sense. Potato Salad fucked around with this message at 14:05 on Jul 31, 2022 |
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Jul 31, 2022 13:54
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Beef posted:As mentioned, the stock also fell when intel was beating expectations. People then look for secondary effects to explain the drop. ...okay? look, all I"m saying is that literally any company in any sector in the entire history of stock markets as a concept would face a share price hit if they announced a 22% earnings decline year over year, and that their earnings were going to miss by 58% (fifty loving eight percent) next quarter. it was the worst investor call for intel since the first tech bubble collapsed in 99. that's not "not entirely without reason" that's "the market would be completely insane if the price didn't fall" this is not due to automated trading and the price will absolutely fall further because it's rational for it to do so considering the call. Dr. Fishopolis fucked around with this message at 17:02 on Jul 31, 2022 |
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Jul 31, 2022 17:00
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There’s a lot of factors going on that haven’t been noted yet. With interest rates going up equity investment pulled away from tech stocks as a whole regardless of performance as they retreated into areas with better price to earnings ratios. Essentially low interest rates fueled over-investment into the tech sector worldwide, not just in the US. Heck, my own company’s not US based and is down 40%+ from its high during the pandemic and we’ve been beating earnings guidance consistently for years now. Investors basically want to see acceleration of earnings moreso than anything else to keep investing in a tech stock. So yeah, Intel stock is being priced down even harder than expected also because markets tend to be more about forward looking sentiment than anything intrinsic or even technical about a stock (beta). Hell, GameStop stock has been my best performing stock compared to my company’s and that’s proof of how irrational markets really are.
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Jul 31, 2022 18:17
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calusari posted:Turn off Enhanced Boost I posted earlier about undervolting. I got good reduction of temps under load. However, my computer is occasionally rebooting when left idle. I can game or watch youtube videos for hours with no issue. Is there anything I can tweak to prevent this from happening? Disabling c-states?
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Aug 1, 2022 16:21
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calusari posted:I posted earlier about undervolting. I got good reduction of temps under load. However, my computer is occasionally rebooting when left idle. I can game or watch youtube videos for hours with no issue. Is there anything I can tweak to prevent this from happening? Disabling c-states? Make your undervolt less aggressive because what you are experiencing is an unstable undervolt. You can't stress test them like a normal overclock as the instability more often shows in cycling between idle and in-use. If you do want to test it, you can try using this over the course of a few nights: https://github.com/sp00n/corecycler
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Aug 1, 2022 17:52
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I'm just undervolting my 12900K with a negative adaptive offset but I feel dumb because I am certain that it could operate at the same frequencies with less voltage in the top end, but going lower becomes unstable at idle clocks - and though I understand it is possible and have even been in the right place in my BIOS, in the end I can't figure out how to manually edit the V/F curve without making my system unwilling to boot. It's got some conditions and rules I'm struggling to adhere to. I wish there were something like MSI Afterburner for my CPU, nice visual representation of the V/F graph with draggable points and once you hit apply it sorts out whatever dumbfuck thing you've tried if it's not within its algorithmic rules.
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Aug 1, 2022 18:08
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What’s the temperature tracker du jour? I was thinking about getting one of those CPU retention blocks GN featured for my 12700k but not sure it’s worth the hassle. Something that can plot some nice charts over time would be good.
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Aug 1, 2022 18:14
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priznat posted:What’s the temperature tracker du jour? I was thinking about getting one of those CPU retention blocks GN featured for my 12700k but not sure it’s worth the hassle. I think Argus Monitor is the usual recommendation if you want to tie temps to fan speeds. Probably overkill for just temp monitoring, though.
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Aug 1, 2022 18:27
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priznat posted:What’s the temperature tracker du jour? I was thinking about getting one of those CPU retention blocks GN featured for my 12700k but not sure it’s worth the hassle. HWInfo is my go-to but I haven't really looked for alternatives
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Aug 1, 2022 18:40
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msi afterburner is all i use
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Aug 1, 2022 18:44
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Kibner posted:I think Argus Monitor is the usual recommendation if you want to tie temps to fan speeds. Probably overkill for just temp monitoring, though. That might be worth doing too, I really should check that out. Heard good things. Thanks for the HWinfo and MSI afterburner tips! I have a gigabyte board and the apps it comes with are traaaaash and usually just lock up.
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Aug 1, 2022 18:56
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HWinfo will be the most accurate I think, that's the one you use for a bunch of other hardware verification and similar nerdy stuff. afterburner (which is platform agnostic, you don't need an MSI card) is a GPU overclocking program first, but it does real time graphing of a bunch of stuff including CPU temps if you want. never run two programs that monitor temps or voltages etc at once, neither will report the right results as I understand it.
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Aug 1, 2022 19:22
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CNBC: AMD passes Intel in market cap on Friday Simultaneously didn't think I'd see this again any time soon, and at the same time, already? Last time was earlier in February, but that quickly reverted. Just to again prove that the investors and financial journalists don't know poo poo, the article cites, "The milestone also suggests that investors may value an asset-light chipmaker over one that’s investing heavily in manufacturing. AMD outsources production to outside “fabs,” or chip factories, whereas Intel has said it plans to continue building and operating plants." I may be on team Red, but even *I* know that if anything happens between Taiwan and China before TSMC can get fabs spun up to full capacity on US soil, and something *will* happen sometime in the next few years, everyone that contracts out to them is going to be in a world of pain from Apple to Nvidia, while Intel will be sitting pretty. I semi-joked a few years back that maybe AMD should look into buying GloFo back from the UAE, but at this point they might be better off starting from scratch with how long that deal would take to finish.
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Aug 1, 2022 22:34
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CoolCab posted:never run two programs that monitor temps or voltages etc at once, neither will report the right results as I understand it. The way these programs generally work is your motherboard and cpu and gpu all have temperature sensors read by embedded micro controllers on them, these controllers then write the temperature data to some reserved memory addresses, monitoring programs then read the data from that memory addresses and display the data in a human readable format for you. So you can actually run as many monitoring programs as you want because 2, 3, or even 100 of them can all just read that same memory address space just fine, it is "public" data inside your PC. Where you can run into trouble is monitoring programs that also let you control fans, rgb leds, overclocking, voltage, or power saving features which are also controlled by writing to some reserved memory near the same space as all the sensor data, because then you can end up with multiple programs all attempting to write to that area of data and conflicting with each other.
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Aug 1, 2022 23:10
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I run Afterburner and HWinfo together all the time on many PCs and never had a problem probably because I don't use stupid RGBs
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Aug 1, 2022 23:52
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SwissArmyDruid posted:I semi-joked a few years back that maybe AMD should look into buying GloFo back from the UAE, but at this point they might be better off starting from scratch with how long that deal would take to finish. AMD is (unless I'm way mistaken) not flush with actual cash, so if they want to start making fabs on soil that isn't going to be invaded within the next few release cycles....yeah they need to start seeking financing and subsidies now.
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Aug 2, 2022 00:03
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SwissArmyDruid posted:CNBC: AMD passes Intel in market cap on Friday https://www.tomshardware.com/news/tsmc-fab-21-arizona There’s no way they could do anything in less than 2 years. I’m sure all the euv litho is booked up beyond then. Also Samsung’s launching a fab in tx in 2024 assuming Texas still has a power grid by then AMD has no staff experience left on running fabs, it would not be a good choice for them. Glofo absolutely hosed ibm tho lol.
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Aug 2, 2022 01:36
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China invading Taiwan will make covid and the Ukrainian invasion look tame in comparison, economically speaking. I try not to even think about it, I imagine it would devastate a lot of semiconductor companies overnight, mine included.
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Aug 2, 2022 01:57
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SwissArmyDruid posted:CNBC: AMD passes Intel in market cap on Friday
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Aug 2, 2022 06:23
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nnnotime posted:Yeah, but wouldn't Intel also be affected by a Chinese invasion? As China and Taiwan were 43% of Intel's revenues last year, per their recent10-K. $21 bil for China and $13 bil from Taiwan. Of course, this may be one reason by China won't be invading Taiwan anytime soon, as they would no longer be able to purchase chips from Intel, and Taiwan will likely sabotage their own fabs. That's true. Everybody's getting hurt when Shenzhen gets cut off from the rest of the world. I made that statement thinking in terms of Intel would be able to snap up silicon boules that are the current pain point in semiconductor manufacture... BUT A LOT OF THOSE ARE MADE IN CHINA AND TAIWAN TOO. Like, who's left? Siltronic and Sumco? Sumco and Shin-Etsu are in Japan, it would be foolish to assume that the Japanese economy and shipping in and out of Japan/Korea wouldn't also be affected. SwissArmyDruid fucked around with this message at 07:27 on Aug 2, 2022 |
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Aug 2, 2022 07:22
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https://twitter.com/dylan522p/status/1552821676609622023
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Aug 2, 2022 20:14
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I'm both shocked and not surprised at all..
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Aug 2, 2022 20:28
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Industrial policy act-by-act fails yet again.
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Aug 2, 2022 20:32
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Dr. Fishopolis posted:Do you think that stock prices just go up and down randomly based on the whims of computers without any input from the realities of business or the economy? yes.
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Aug 2, 2022 21:55
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SwissArmyDruid posted:I semi-joked a few years back that maybe AMD should look into buying GloFo back from the UAE, but at this point they might be better off starting from scratch with how long that deal would take to finish. Forget about how much time a deal would take, buying GloFo back would almost be starting from scratch. GloFo has literally given up on developing new process nodes themselves. Their most advanced 22, 14, and 12nm nodes are all second source licensed from STMicro/Samsung and they don't yet have Samsung's sub-10nm process recipe. Does AMD want to try to compete against Intel using whatever Samsung's currently willing to let GF license? I'm going to say that they probably do not.
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Aug 2, 2022 21:57
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Iirc Intel hired a bunch of the key people on thr 7nm glofo process a year or two ago lol speaking of glofo they got their ipo out just in time lol
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Aug 2, 2022 22:16
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Cutting dividends at this point would probably murder the stock even more so probably a necessary evil
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Aug 2, 2022 23:25
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but stock price does matter, are they really going to sell more stock in the future?
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Aug 3, 2022 00:36
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wargames posted:but stock price does matter, are they really going to sell more stock in the future? And Intel already has 4.1 billion shares outstanding, so issuing any more shares would not be required. WhyteRyce posted:Cutting dividends at this point would probably murder the stock even more so probably a necessary evil If anything Intel will likely avoid share buybacks anytime soon. During an interview last year (2021) the Intel CEO said share buybacks would not be in focus going forward, which was around the time Intel was showing a lot of trouble. However despite Intel's management having a plan to turn things around later this year, Intel's stock is pretty much the weakest of all the major semiconductor companies. If we have some major economic downturn or other catastrophe that affects Intel's operations further then odds are high Intel's stock would tank further, despite the attractive value it offers now. But Intel will be a beneficiary of the recently passed CHIPS legislation, so hope they are able to leverage the funds to good use in their capital investments and fab expansions. Intel shows about a 7.8 P/E ratio, compared to AMD (P/E 35), Texas Instruments TXN (P/E 19), Nvidia NVDA (P/E 48), Taiwan Semiconductor TSM ( P/E 18). Intel's P/E ratio does not show a lot of confidence from big investors compared to the competitors' stock valuation. Edit: corrected Intel's P/E ratio. nnnotime fucked around with this message at 01:29 on Aug 3, 2022 |
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Aug 3, 2022 01:19
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ARM Holdings average P/E ratio was like 70 over a five year period. The market sometimes gets really weird with tech stocks.
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Aug 3, 2022 01:47
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intel's considered a mature blue chip (haha) at this point which is why they have to dump so much of their income into dividends nvidia's valuation has exploded by being associated with both AI and crypto - the latter's dead for the time being, the former IMO is going to cool down a bit the day-to-day (or even yearly) price movements is mainly concerning in that it might push management to do dumb stuff so let's see if nvidia pulls some poo poo given how they're down 40% for the year
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Aug 3, 2022 03:15
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:O https://www.igorslab.de/en/never-en...bility-in-2023/ quote:Intel has now announced the “launch window” for Sapphire Rapids (SPR) for calendar week 6 to 9 (Feb. 6, 2023 to March 3, 2023)
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Aug 3, 2022 20:19
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shrike82 posted:intel's considered a mature blue chip (haha) at this point which is why they have to dump so much of their income into dividends If ever there was a sign that Intel no longer exists to build chips, there it is. They are now a investment return engine that is funded by being the largest chipmaker in the world. Unregulated capitalism truly is hell.
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Aug 4, 2022 03:42
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SwissArmyDruid posted:If ever there was a sign that Intel no longer exists to build chips, there it is. They are now a investment return engine that is funded by being the largest chipmaker in the world. lol and what was their motivation until now? a hobby?
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Aug 4, 2022 05:03
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