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Use this thread to talk about gambling on combat sports, whether it's MMA or boxing or K-1 or whatever else.
oldfan fucked around with this message at 05:22 on Jan 15, 2022 |
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Feb 10, 2011 01:59
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| # ? Apr 16, 2024 22:42 |
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Shogun's around +160 against Jones. I'm not sold on his standup yet, and I think over the course of a five rounder Shogun's gonna find the opportunity to light him up sometime. At UFC 127, my favorite underdog pick is Jorge Rivera. He's a serious underdog at +275, but Bisping's perennially overrated. Rivera's standup looked really crisp in his last fight and he hits really hard.
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Feb 10, 2011 02:13
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PSP Coleman losses Fawker: $20 MassRayPer: $100 Save Russian Jews: $150 osama bin diesel: $50 Roadtard: $15 Malachamavet: $15 Bubba Smith: $20 Who Gotch Ya: $100 mobn: $20 attackmole: $20 OG KUSH BLUNTS: $20 Gourd of Taste: $100 BossTweed: $10 _______________________ Total: $640 edit: I have never been prouder to lose money because a man won't wrestle
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Feb 10, 2011 02:16
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GSP is -555 on my book. I think that'll probably still move a hundred or two south by the end of april 
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Feb 10, 2011 02:19
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ForbiddenWonder posted:gsp is -555 on my book. I think that'll probably still move a hundred or two south by the end of april what the hell is shields at?
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Feb 10, 2011 02:19
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i bet on griffin getting injured i won $5 
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Feb 10, 2011 02:19
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How do you guys feel about betting on overdogs? I've always figured if they're over -150 or something it's just not worth the risk.
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Feb 10, 2011 02:21
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I don't bet real money on MMA, but:kensei posted:e: also mega-lol at a treazn name drop in the OP! kensei fucked around with this message at 02:28 on Feb 10, 2011 |
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Feb 10, 2011 02:23
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attackmole posted:How do you guys feel about betting on overdogs? I've always figured if they're over -150 or something it's just not worth the risk. Favorites are usually the best bets on any sporting event because people like to bet on underdogs (and the over on over/unders), essentially for the reason you describe in this post.
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Feb 10, 2011 02:26
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Save Russian Jews posted:what the hell is shields at? +405. I can't believe Machida is such a huge favorite (-335) against Handy. The big question in that fight is weather Couture can get within clinch range before getting picked apart.
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Feb 10, 2011 02:26
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The biggest problem with betting on MMA is that fighters are stupid and even if someone has a clear path to victory they will often decide to do something else entirely and lose.
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Feb 10, 2011 02:31
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attackmole posted:How do you guys feel about betting on overdogs? I've always figured if they're over -150 or something it's just not worth the risk. imo MMA is just too unpredictable to bet on overdogs, but I'm a bad gambler so don't pay me too much mind
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Feb 10, 2011 02:38
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K8.0 posted:The biggest problem with betting on MMA is that fighters are stupid and even if someone has a clear path to victory they will often decide to do something else entirely and lose. the biggest problem with betting on MMA are the athletic commissions and the people they appoint to judge fights. I would like a section devoted to how retarded parlays are. betting on mma is pretty stupid, but doing parlays on mma fights is like frank mir putting on 25 lbs of muscle over a summer then trying to cut 60 lbs in a month levels of retarded.
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Feb 10, 2011 02:38
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Bubba Smith posted:I would like a section devoted to how retarded parlays are. Feel free to post one!
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Feb 10, 2011 03:00
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Any infamous lines from old fights? I just started looking at lines like a year ago for fun.
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Feb 10, 2011 03:03
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ChampRamp posted:Any infamous lines from old fights? I just started looking at lines like a year ago for fun. the sokodjou fights against rogerio and arona both had him as massive underdogs. serra/gsp and werdum/fedor were also huge upsets
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Feb 10, 2011 03:04
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Yeah I think Soko was something like +1200 against Lil Nog, by betting odds I'm pretty sure it's the biggest upset in MMA history.
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Feb 10, 2011 03:15
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ForbiddenWonder posted:+405. I can't believe Machida is such a huge favorite (-335) against Handy. The big question in that fight is weather Couture can get within clinch range before getting picked apart. i think the big question is how can you possibly think randy, who couldn't take down and control big nogueira or vera, and got knocked down by big nogueira, is gonna be able to avoid getting KOd by machida
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Feb 10, 2011 03:21
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I got 10 bucks on Sergei at -125 this weekend which I think is way lower than it should be, I think 9 times out of 10 Sergei beats Arlovski
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Feb 10, 2011 03:23
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Also, this is a ridiculously good, in-depth op. I'm glad I deferred.
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Feb 10, 2011 03:25
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Bundt Cake posted:i think the big question is how can you possibly think randy, who couldn't take down and control big nogueira or vera, and got knocked down by big nogueira, is gonna be able to avoid getting KOd by machida if he doesn't get KO'ed he'll probably win any decision because he's Captain America and my hero
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Feb 10, 2011 03:26
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Gomi Pile posted:the sokodjou fights against rogerio and arona both had him as massive underdogs. serra/gsp and werdum/fedor were also huge upsets I'd say more interesting are if any lines were just way off and the underdog absolutely styled on the favorite instead of flash KOs/subs. Also explain your napkin math you used to get the "if x fighter would win y% of the time, its a good bet"
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Feb 10, 2011 03:32
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the lines were pretty goofy on anderson v leben and franklin, also recently the line for Carwin v Mir was real goofy and i made like 50 bucks
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Feb 10, 2011 03:34
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The only big overdog I have ever bet was Couture vs. Toney. I bet a pittance and won a very slightly bigger pittance.
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Feb 10, 2011 03:35
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Bubba Smith posted:I would like a section devoted to how retarded parlays are. betting on mma is pretty stupid, but doing parlays on mma fights is like frank mir putting on 25 lbs of muscle over a summer then trying to cut 60 lbs in a month levels of retarded.  I'm over the hump now that Miguel has won. If Fedor, Overeem, or Barnett loses then the comedy factor will outweigh the loss of my 3 bucks.
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Feb 10, 2011 04:10
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Also let me just point out how perfect the Thonglor thread tag is for this thread.
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Feb 10, 2011 04:16
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DumbWhiteGuy posted:Also let me just point out how perfect the Thonglor thread tag is for this thread. I was wondering on when we could use it, and boom this thread comes up. 
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Feb 10, 2011 04:19
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Bubba Smith posted:the biggest problem with betting on MMA are the athletic commissions and the people they appoint to judge fights. Always bet on MMA 
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Feb 10, 2011 04:23
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MMAjunkie.com has an eight-part guide about betting on MMA. I don't gamble (but I've always been interested in reading about MMA and football gambling/handicapping), so I can't really assess if it is quality information, but I thought it was a good read for someone who doesn't know much. MMAjunkie used to have a writer, Eric Foster aka Performify, who would make picks before big events and whose columns I usually enjoyed. As far as I know, his last column was prior to UFC 121 where his one pick was betting 7 units on Lesnar at -140, so perhaps he died from shame. Does anyone know if he writes a similar column elsewhere, or of any other sites that currently feature similar columns?
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Feb 10, 2011 04:25
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 PRO TIP PRO TIP Don't take other people's advice in regards to betting, especially from freaking MMA 'journalism' websites
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Feb 10, 2011 04:28
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If I recall correctly seven units on Lesnar was only one in a long line of shockingly bad picks
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Feb 10, 2011 04:30
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I don't bet that often but I'm up about 3 times on my initial stake. my last big win was a parley on gsp to beat kos on points and aloevera/miller to finish. i put a small amount on jorge over bisping and some on fitch to decision penn into sot to submit siver
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Feb 10, 2011 04:36
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For MMA betting that is real money (sorta) without consequences, https://www.centsports.com is pretty fun. You get 10 cents to start, and you can do moneyline bets and parlays on MMA/K-1/other supposed "real" sports. It lets you have fun and prove your MMAth skills. You will also use 4-letter words over a nickel.
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Feb 10, 2011 04:37
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My interest in the MMAjunkie/Performify columns wasn't about how correct he was in his gambling picks, but rather that he attempted to analyze the fights from a gambling perspective, rather than just simply making a pick as to who he thought would win. I know all MMA "journalism" is pretty terrible, but I'm just curious if there are any other sites that regularly analyze fights from a gambling perspective.
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Feb 10, 2011 04:45
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attackmole posted:Shogun's around +160 against Jones. I'm not sold on his standup yet, and I think over the course of a five rounder Shogun's gonna find the opportunity to light him up sometime. Wait, I'm not an MMA junkie (yet), but I thought Shogun was really, absurdly good. Is Jones that good, or is he overhyped because of how easily he won his last fight?
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Feb 10, 2011 04:47
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Great White Hope posted:Wait, I'm not an MMA junkie (yet), but I thought Shogun was really, absurdly good. Is Jones that good, or is he overhyped because of how easily he won his last fight? jones has momentum and hype behind him, shogun is very good at striking and jiu jitsu but wrestling (specifically takedown defense) is a huge weakness of his that jones could take advantage of. shoguns also coming off an injury, which is when hes had some of his worst performances in the past. its mostly a case of styles making fights, jones shouldnt be as much of a favorite as he is though imo
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Feb 10, 2011 04:57
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Great White Hope posted:Wait, I'm not an MMA junkie (yet), but I thought Shogun was really, absurdly good. Shogun has had some really spectacular performances and some very lovely ones. Some of the lovely ones were from holes in his game, some of them were due to injuries, some were a mixture of both. Jones is a wrestler with a good top game, which is not a particularly good matchup for him, and he's coming back after being out for a year with a knee injury. I think having him as the underdog is a little off given the serious experience advantage he has over Jones, but there's a lot of unknowns going into this match and "really, absurdly good" is a serious overstatement regarding Shogun. EDIT:  drat you, manyak
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Feb 10, 2011 04:58
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I Internet-know Performify from him modding another board. He was very good at identifying way off lines in ye olden days when such things existed just by being intelligent, but his actual MMA analysis isn't really all that great. Now that the way off lines don't exist, he's only real good at predicting line movements. And he doesn't even discuss MMA over there anymore, I think he's just out of the game now. His MMAJunkie/FIGHT Magazine guide was good four years ago, but except for the mechanical stuff is extremely outdated. FWIW I think Jones as a slight favorite against Shogun is about right and wouldn't touch that line with someone else's money.
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Feb 10, 2011 05:03
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HATE MONDAYS posted:fatherdog posted:I gotcha. Thanks for clearing that up. Now to bet on Shogun because I always ignore logic on centsports.
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Feb 10, 2011 05:05
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| # ? Apr 16, 2024 22:42 |
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Great White Hope posted:Wait, I'm not an MMA junkie (yet), but I thought Shogun was really, absurdly good. Is Jones that good, or is he overhyped because of how easily he won his last fight? Jones is in over his head the UFC threw him in the deep end. He hasn't fought anyone with striking or jiu jitsu half as good as Shogun's he's gonna crack under the pressure, bet big on Shogun he never cracks under the pressure (especially not his knees)
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Feb 10, 2011 05:05
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