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Bundt Cake
Aug 16, 2003
;(

FantasyMissionForce posted:

Jones is in over his head the UFC threw him in the deep end. He hasn't fought anyone with striking or jiu jitsu half as good as Shogun's

stephan bonnar

don't worry it helps your case

on the other hand, don't bet on shogun

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ForbiddenWonder
Feb 15, 2003



jones-shogun seems like one of about seven things could easily happen, which is a Bad Idea to bet on

Bundt Cake
Aug 16, 2003
;(

i think the odds of shogun turning up like poo poo are pretty high to begin with, then you have to slice his chances of winning out of whatever's left. Do not bet on Shogun.

-Atom-
Sep 13, 2003

Contrarian Dick

Bad At Everything


Shogun coming off an injury, although they claim this is the first time he's actually correctly done the rehab.

But this is right.

ForbiddenWonder posted:

jones-shogun seems like one of about seven things could easily happen, which is a Bad Idea to bet on

Bundt Cake
Aug 16, 2003
;(

he turned up looking like poo poo against nakamura without a knee injury. Don't bet on Shogun.

unless you really want i guess

Bundt Cake fucked around with this message at Feb 10, 2011 around 04:21

FantasyMissionForce
Jun 21, 2009

Rocky? This is a military action! He's not suitable!


don't listen to this man, Shogun needs all your bets to support him since his body is not always up to the task

Jones will take him down in 30 secs, Shogun will be back up in another 30, and Jones will be desperate and gassed and TKO'ed by the 2nd round. this is the only possibility

ForbiddenWonder
Feb 15, 2003



FantasyMissionForce posted:

don't listen to this man, Shogun needs all your bets to support him since his body is not always up to the task

Jones will take him down in 30 secs, Shogun will be back up in another 30,

the more I think about it, this is probably the best case scenario for shogun.

fawker
Feb 1, 2008

ARMBAR!

Bubba Smith posted:

I would like a section devoted to how retarded parlays are. betting on mma is pretty stupid, but doing parlays on mma fights is like frank mir putting on 25 lbs of muscle over a summer then trying to cut 60 lbs in a month levels of retarded.

Homie please....



EDIT

I've never played more than $5 on parlays because YES they are pretty dumb and you almost never come on top with them.

ForbiddenWonder
Feb 15, 2003



my book doesn't allow parlays on mma

Bubba Smith
Sep 27, 2004

Is tonight the greatest moment in Dominick Cruz's life?

No.

The greatest moment in my life was realizing that I didn't need a belt to be happy.


The sweetest parlay I pulled off successfully was UFC on Versus 1 where I correctly had JDS, Jones, Kongo and Sakara and a few of the undercard people. Almost every other parlay that was 3 or more without a huge favorite on it (I used to throw GSP on to every one of my bets because it was worth the extra few dollars for almost no risk) ended in failure.

I rarely place bets anymore but when I do they are only single bets from now on.

Sketh
Jun 7, 2008


I watch pretty much every MMA event that's on but until now I've never bothered betting on MMA so I thought I'd try my luck. Just placed the following over the next few weeks.

10 Jon Fitch beating BJ on points - 10/11 - Don't see it going any other way than BJ getting wrestled on.
5 Siver beating Sotiropolous - 5/2 - George is certainly the better fighter but I think Siver has a chance if he can avoid the ground.
10 Rivera beating Bisping - 5/2 - I actually think Bisping will win but it was a free 10 bet and I could see rivera hurting Bisping if he lands a few shots.
15 Overeem beating Werdum by KO - 5/6 - I don't see Werdum being able to get Overeem to the ground and he'll get crushed in the standup.
10 Fedor beating Silva by Submission - 2/1 - I think Fedor rocking Silva in the same way Mike Kyle did is almost a definite and I think he'll slap on a submission while Silva is trying to recover.

Might fall down with betting on win conditions but I reckon most of these are plausible.

freud mayweather
Jan 29, 2009



Save Russian Jews posted:

PSP Coleman losses
Fawker: $20
MassRayPer: $100
Save Russian Jews: $150
osama bin diesel: $50
Roadtard: $15
Malachamavet: $15
Bubba Smith: $20
Who Gotch Ya: $100
mobn: $20
attackmole: $20
OG KUSH BLUNTS: $20
Gourd of Taste: $100
BossTweed: $10
_______________________
Total: $640

edit: I have never been prouder to lose money because a man won't wrestle
i had five on that. as much as i love coleman i could never bring myself to bet more than that on one of his fights. he's mark coleman.

Roadtard
May 24, 2008

The Sonnensault


In retrospect we should have just sent that $650 or so to Mark. Would have been a better use of it.

Malachamavet
Jan 12, 2009

Above the gigantic mouth is an eye as big as a shield that stares at you with pure hate


I remember Sonnen/Marquardt was really imbalanced; Sonnen was at like +300. I think it was fatherdog who was talking about how Marquardt's takedown defense and subs off his back were obviously terrible and should be ignored. I managed to cover my Coleman losses that way!

Xguard86
Nov 22, 2004

"You don't understand his pain. Everywhere he goes he sees women working, wearing pants, speaking in gatherings, voting. Surely they will burn in the white hot flames of Hell"

One thing I did not see:
Do not bet on your favorite fighter: If you are a passionate fan, it is very hard to step back and get enough perspective to make intelligent choices. Look at the Coleman bandwagon for how perspectives can get warped.


Bj Penn is my favorite, I even bought his book. I still won 200 dollars on Edgar in their rematch, because he beat him once, was the champ and was still an underdog. Because Penn fans are dumb.

fawker
Feb 1, 2008

ARMBAR!

Thanks to fatherdog's advice, I chose sonnen over Nate, Okami over Nate and Miller over Aloe Vera. theres a few others but off the top of my head those were some big underdog picks for me.

Gomi Pile
Jan 19, 2011

by Ozmaugh


Xguard86 posted:

One thing I did not see:
Do not bet on your favorite fighter: If you are a passionate fan, it is very hard to step back and get enough perspective to make intelligent choices. Look at the Coleman bandwagon for how perspectives can get warped.


Bj Penn is my favorite, I even bought his book. I still won 200 dollars on Edgar in their rematch, because he beat him once, was the champ and was still an underdog. Because Penn fans are dumb.

bet on your favourite fighter. every morning wake up and open palm slam some money on sergei

Cart Mountain
Nov 1, 2004

GBS Owns.

i had 20 on the aforementioned coleman fight.


but i also had 50 on chael.

i think i also made like 150 off of frankie last year.
i've lost so, so many parlays though. little ones that dont cost much are so addicting.


bet on mma ya'll

Steve Winwood
Sep 22, 2009

by Ozmaugh


What sites do you use for gambling on MMA?

freud mayweather
Jan 29, 2009



Beowulf LaGrange posted:

i've lost so, so many parlays though. little ones that dont cost much are so addicting.

they're like MMA scratch-offs, and as long as you treat them like scratch-offs they're pretty fun.

Foul Fowl
Sep 12, 2008

Like a snail that melteth away into slime, they shall be taken away; like a dead-born child, they shall not see the sun.

Beowulf LaGrange posted:

i think i also made like 150 off of frankie last year.

unfortunately now, in his third title defense, he's finally the (slight) favorite.

Grifter
Jul 24, 2003

I do this technique called a suplex. You probably haven't heard of it, it's pretty obscure.

How often do these arbitrage opportunities pop up and what's the best way to find/track them? Because drat if that doesn't look like free money.

(The answer is probably not very often and it's quite difficult because drat that is free money.)

Big Bob Pataki
Jan 23, 2009

The Bob that Refreshes

betting fake money on centsports owns

Lionel Richie
Nov 14, 2004



Grifter posted:

How often do these arbitrage opportunities pop up and what's the best way to find/track them? Because drat if that doesn't look like free money.

(The answer is probably not very often and it's quite difficult because drat that is free money.)

Yeah not very often. I can only speak from the UK point of view but all the bookmakers are in contact with each other and follow very similar lines. The best chances are with newer bookmakers who offer a different line to tempt people in. Saying that, no matter how big or small the company, as a rule bookies are shady, and often they just won't let you put the bet on (or only will for some pointlessly small amount), or if the line is way out and everyone jumps on then they'll just void the bet.

I dunno if there's a US equivalent but for the UK oddschecker is a useful tool for tracking prices. So for example from this I can see that if I wanted to bet on Saul Alvarez to win by KO/TKO/DQ then sportingbet is by far the best price.

Victory Lap
Feb 25, 2001


I put 50 bucks in an account to bet some MMA a while ago, ran it up to just under 200 bucks. Then a UFC event was coming up and I'd been busy, no time to check out lines and whatnot, so I just put the whole lot on Machida to beat Rampage as like a -250 favorite cause I was sure it was a lock.

Don't bet on mma.

Elmo Oxygen
Jun 11, 2007

Kazuo Misaki Superfan #3

Don't make me lift my knee, young man.

I think I should bet on MMA because I won almost $50,000 in MMAPlayground funbucks when I bet my entire bankroll on Mike Russow at UFC 114.

Success like that is sure to transition flawlessly to real world sports betting.

DO YALL WANT A BOXC
Jul 20, 2010

EYY WHO WANTS A PIZZA PIE ? PASTA LINGUINE ITSA FAMILY THING PAISAN EYYYYYY





Fun Shoe

Big Bob Pataki posted:

betting fake money on centsports owns

Yeah, it's a good site to practice at least with no risk. I'm trying to see how relatively good I am at the whole MMA/Hockey betting thing before actually wasting real money on it. So far, no good.

platero
Sep 11, 2001

spooky, but polite, a-hole



Pillbug

Big Bob Pataki posted:

betting fake money on centsports owns

gently caress yes


DO YALL WANT A BOXC posted:

Yeah, it's a good site to practice at least with no risk. I'm trying to see how relatively good I am at the whole MMA/Hockey betting thing before actually wasting real money on it. So far, no good.

It's also easy to do well, because it's easy to bet logically when it's not real money.

Elmo Oxygen
Jun 11, 2007

Kazuo Misaki Superfan #3

Don't make me lift my knee, young man.



Hahaha

Lid
Feb 18, 2005

Rap terrorist, terrorise, tear it up
Brought gas and the matches to flare it up
Militant Michael might go psycho
On any ally or rival
Born Black, that's dead on arrival
My job is to fight for survival
In spite of these #AllLivesMatter-ass white folk


Is it known which UFC, or other MMA event, had the most betting dogs win at the event? It seems like it would be the quintessential don't bet on MMA. I was racking my brain and it seems like UFC 92 would be a good bet but I can't find the lines from it.

CRISPYBABY
Dec 15, 2007

*~ayoo comin thru~*


http://www.bestfightodds.com/events...ltimate-2008-95

Outside of Mir beating Nog, there's nothing too outrageous.

Elmo Oxygen
Jun 11, 2007

Kazuo Misaki Superfan #3

Don't make me lift my knee, young man.

Just recently, UFC 114 had Russow beating Duffee, Hathaway beating Sanchez, Diabate beating Cane, and Rashad beating Rampage. Jensen and Kim were both slight underdogs too, and they won.

Plus, Little Nog came very close to losing to Brilz, who was like a 10 to 1 underdog.

Don't bet on MMA.

CRISPYBABY
Dec 15, 2007

*~ayoo comin thru~*


I bet on Diabate and Rashad on that card.

But now I'm slightly down again. I'm just taking the small victories here.

Shumagorath
Jun 5, 2001


attackmole posted:

http://www.bestfightodds.com/events...ltimate-2008-95

Outside of Mir beating Nog, there's nothing too outrageous.
Dang, their even list seems to stop at 72, and 71 was when I was certain Rampage would beat Chuck. Of course, the bookies probably knew that too but Rampage had looked like garbage on his way out of Pride.

Jerome Louis
Nov 5, 2002
p

College Slice

when werdum fought arlovski i dropped $100 on werdum cus he was like a +200 underdog. werdum slapped arlovski in the face and my $100 into the toilet. and the sad thing is i would still prolly drop $100 on werdum today if those two fought again with the same odds.

Ninja PD
Jul 21, 2006


Hey FD, is it considered non kosher if we bet amongst ourselves here (or take it to PM)? If not, I would be willing to bookie for anyone wanting to put low stakes around a $10 or so limit (Favorites to win $10, Underdogs risk up to $10) with Bodog odds through Paypal. I'd also do forum upgrades against any underdog.

vvvvvvv Edit: What I needed to hear, thanks FD vvvvvvvv

Ninja PD fucked around with this message at Feb 11, 2011 around 16:27

fatherdog
Feb 16, 2005

by Lowtax


I was actually planning on asking the admin if I could arrange a couple people per event to be able to make Custom Title bets with each other - no odds involved, just betting on a fight, whoever wins gets to give the loser a custom title that they have to wear for a month.

But the answer is no, it's not kosher, because even with a low limit if you're bookie-ing with Bodog odds you're essentially acting as a bookie, and that creates legal liabilities because the laws around that in the US are draconian and not well defined, and PSP is currently public-viewable.

moww
Jan 16, 2005

Can Type the Hype and Post the Most.

If a fight goes to a draw or no contest do I lose my money?

Edit: Thanks FD. I've never met anybody quite as proficient at letting everyone else know how bad they are at reading.

moww fucked around with this message at Feb 11, 2011 around 16:23

fatherdog
Feb 16, 2005

by Lowtax


moww posted:

If a fight goes to a draw or no contest do I lose my money?

jeffersonlives posted:

5.) You bet $100 on either fighter. The fight is a draw, no contest, or one or both of the fighters is scratched before the fight for any reason. You get your $100 back; the bet is a push.

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Gomi Pile
Jan 19, 2011

by Ozmaugh


one of you guys with the autism compose a win % thing for the ufc based on corner colour. so like how often does the blue corner win?

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