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Ninja PD
Jul 21, 2006


Hey FD, is it considered non kosher if we bet amongst ourselves here (or take it to PM)? If not, I would be willing to bookie for anyone wanting to put low stakes around a $10 or so limit (Favorites to win $10, Underdogs risk up to $10) with Bodog odds through Paypal. I'd also do forum upgrades against any underdog.

vvvvvvv Edit: What I needed to hear, thanks FD vvvvvvvv

Ninja PD fucked around with this message at Feb 11, 2011 around 16:27

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Ninja PD
Jul 21, 2006


There is no one organization that has easier fights to win money off of, rather you have to look at specific fights for specific edges. Lesnar was pretty much the UFC version of Fedor on the betting lines, except Lesnar wasn't a massive favorite all the time but you could still get a good line at even or so. Things you look out for are like unknown but skilled underdogs making their debuts or when the Frankies fight the BJs, wrestlers vs europeans (or pretty much anyone), and other edges like that.

Strikeforce has a tendency for squash-ish matches, the last 3 or 4 events could run under 2 and half hours put together which leads to popular fighters being massive favorites to relatively unknown opponents. Sometimes these opponents are actually very good and if you identify this edge then you should go for it. Remember however, if you think of something there are probably thousands of other bettors thinking the exact same thing so those handicapping edges may not last long.

WEC and generally any Japanese organization were notorious for having giant favorites get upset, but only once in a while, and then we think how obvious that pick should have been in hind sight. If you were truly, fully, wholy, 100% going to bet Silva to win that fight you would have placed money asap; something made you forget about it or you didn't prioritize yourself properly because in reality you weren't very confident in the pick, and now you are kicking yourself for not acting on a half thought hunch you had weeks ago. It happens to everybody but don't go betting expecting massive dogs to be winning consistently.

Edit - this being said, depending on the next opponent, we can probably expect Fedor to be a lot closer to even than we have ever before. His stock has fallen but I doubt we will ever see him be a giant underdog.

Ninja PD fucked around with this message at Feb 15, 2011 around 07:47

Ninja PD
Jul 21, 2006


I feel confident that Silva can always find the correct path to victory

Ninja PD
Jul 21, 2006


I bet his nickname involves either Assassin or Pitbull.

Ninja PD
Jul 21, 2006


I don’t expect much to come out of this; I’m merely just pointing out something that I found interesting in the MMA betting topic. Someone posted this article a while ago UFC Gambling Analysis: Breaking Down 2011 Underdog Performance which broke down all the underdogs in 2011 up to that point (Aug 14). There isn’t much all that fascinating about the article and the writer really doesn’t have a purpose to it, though there is one point of data that should be looked at.

+150 to +199 7-28-1 (.194)

While the writer does briefly acknowledge this statistic, he doesn’t really understand it. It basically says that underdogs in this range win 19% of the time. That means that the favourites win 81% of the time. In this range, the underdog’s polar partner would usually be around -180 to -260, these equate to winning percentages of 64% to 72%, respectively. That means we would only need a winning percentage of 72% to make money but we are getting 81%. 9% percent doesn’t sound all that much, but let’s just look at it a bit more.

We should be betting on the favourites to whoever the underdogs are at +150 to +199.

Let’s do some easy math. Taking real odds on an upcoming right, Ben Rothwell (-275) vs Mark Hunt (+195), as this is the most extreme example of the odds not being in the bettors’ favour (+195 is most likely the highest odd you will get as the odds usually move in units of 5 and the next level of +200 would be out of our range). Now apply these values to the data, we will bet $275 to win $100, and ignore the draw as it is basically negligible. 28 wins equals +$2800 (28 times $100 profit). 7 loses equals -$1925 (7 times -$275 loses). Putting the two together nets us at +$875 profit. So out of 35 total fights, equalling $9625 (35 total fights multiplied by $275) total betted, that makes for a return of 9.1% ($875/$9625), slightly better than your average 5% bank savings account.

That was an extreme example that made every bet -275, but the average most likely would run around -220. Through the same method as above, the return would be +$1700 off of a total investment of $7700, making the return on investment 22.1%.

However, keep in mind that this doesn’t mean that it will hold up in the future from this point on; it could get better, it could get worse, or stay relatively the same (groundbreaking, I know). This is a merely a data trend, so if you are a believer that the past can usually predict the future, this is one of the better ways to bet.

It kind of, sort of, maybe makes sense why this category can be so lopsided. The range before is fights that are as close to 50/50 without actually being a coin flip. The results reflect this going 18-16, slight slight slight edge to the underdogs. The range after is where the obvious favourites and underdogs in a match start to appear with the odds makers, public, and bettors. Our category of focus is where it is apparent where the fight should go, who the favourite should be, but it’s still too close to put up the farm on either guy.

This means you would have to bet every fight that falls into this category to get the most consistent result. Your best bet would be to get the lines early or wait until their underdog pairing drops to as close to +150 as possible without falling out of range. This also means that the fun and emotion of betting is taken out, which, let’s face it, is pretty much the only reason we like to bet and exactly why you shouldn’t bet on MMA. Not to mention you’re left with cheering for assholes like Ben Rothwell and Nate Diaz to make up your percentage.

By no means am I an expert in the topic, or believer in system betting, I just find it a bit interesting. I hope my math is right, or else this will be a bit embarrassing.

Ninja PD
Jul 21, 2006


Hector Lombard -1400
Trevor Prangley +700

Is it worth entertaining a bet on Prangley?

Ninja PD
Jul 21, 2006


The most valuable line I see right now is in Meisha Tate @ +240 vs Rhonda Rousey @ -300. Rousey has had about 5 minutes total in the cage and Tate is a pretty good overall fighter with more MMA experience. What are your guys' thoughts?

Ninja PD
Jul 21, 2006


Issei Tamura +220
Takeya Mizugaki -250
Riki Fukuda -300
Norifumi "Kid" Yamamoto -325
Takanori "The Fireball Kid" Gomi -210
Anthony "Showtime" Pettis -265
Hatsu Hioki -165
Yushin "Thunder" Okami -600
Jake Shields -350
Ryan "Darth" Bader +145
Mark Hunt +210
Frankie "The Answer" Edgar -135

Risk $ 1.00 To Win $ 504.86

I expect lose on the very first match.

Ninja PD
Jul 21, 2006


Huge action coming in on Rousey, so bet on Tate @ +280 on Bodog.

Ninja PD
Jul 21, 2006


I think its probably because all the value got sucked out of Franklin winning inside the distance, but Franklin winning by decision is at the +600 range on most sites. Might not be the most likely outcome, but not a terribly unlikely outcome to not toss a couple of coins on to make things a little interesting.

Russow by decision is also +600, is there a better than 14.3% chance of this happening?

Ninja PD
Jul 21, 2006


Oh Bundt, Ive been sweating it out for someone to agree with me so I have some justification for my degenerate ways. A sort of transference of responsibility, so if it doesn't work out, I coming after you. I'm coming after your sweet rear end Bundt...

Ninja PD
Jul 21, 2006


Bet Small on MMA. 3/3 on the night.



Mixed Martial Arts Props (Prop) Moneyline
(Roy "Big Country" Nelson vs Matt "Meathead" Mitrione) - Method of Victory (5 Rounds)
Both must fight for action
(3101) Roy "Big Country" Nelson wins inside distance -135 Sat@8:30p

Outcome:
Win

Risk CA$ 1.20 to win CA$ 0.89



Mixed Martial Arts Props (Prop) Moneyline
(Dustin "The Diamond" Poirier vs Jonathan Brookins) - Method of Victory (3 Rounds)
Both must fight for action
(3070) Dustin "The Diamond" Poirier wins inside distance +210 Sat@7:00p

Outcome:
Win

Risk CA$ 1.20 to win CA$ 2.52



Mixed Martial Arts (Game) Moneyline
UFC - The Ultimate Fighter 16 Finale - The Joint at the Hard Rock Hotel & Casino, Las Vegas, Nevada, United States
Both Must Fight For Action.
(7005) Pat "HD" Barry +200 Sat@7:45p

Outcome:
Win

Risk CA$ 1.21 to win CA$ 2.42


I don't know why I did Barry to win and not Barry to win inside the distance, that was pretty much his only path to victory and it would have payed out another dollar.

Ninja PD
Jul 21, 2006


I'm such a loving degenerate.

Ed "Short Fuse" Herman +300
Risk $ 1.27 to win $ 3.81

Dion "The Soldier" Staring +900
Risk $ 1.00 to win $ 9.00

Nandor "The Hun" Guelmino +850
Risk CA$ 1.00 to win CA$ 8.50

Ninja PD
Jul 21, 2006


$1 Lavar Johnson @ +120 (Always bet against Schaub)
$1 Robbie Lawler @ +350
$1 Menjivar @ +275 (I think this one is a legitimately good bet)
$1 Hendo @ +190

Ninja PD
Jul 21, 2006


Where are you getting point handicaps?


VVVVVV Nice thanks. Point handicaps add a nice element to betting when close fights go the distance. I think you're onto something with the Menjivar bet. VVVVVVV

Ninja PD fucked around with this message at Feb 23, 2013 around 23:47

Ninja PD
Jul 21, 2006


Give me Wanderlei/Gomi or give me death!

Ninja PD
Jul 21, 2006


$25 to win $200 Okami @ +800 inside the distance
$11.90 to win $25 Okami @ +210 3 round decision

COME ON YUSHIN SPINNING BACK KICK KO! or choke a bitch

Ninja PD
Jul 21, 2006


Is my main man Mousasi a really, really bad bet tonight or just a really bad bet? I like both guys but a prop bet of Mousasi finishing inside the distance @ +475 looks delicious. I sort of remember Gustafsson' last two fights, boring kickboxing matches where I don't think he took T. Silva down at all and maybe Shogun at some point(?). If it's stays standing GM can handle himself fine (maybe a prop bet by decision is a better choice @ +440 though), he ran through Mike Kyle (big deal I know) and handled OVP on the ground who was supposed to be the new super wrestler. Has he gotten better than when he faced Lawal and Jardine, who knows. Enough of me trying to convince myself though, what are your thoughts on the outcome of this one?

Ninja PD
Jul 21, 2006


Ty1990 posted:

At -140, Pat Curran is my favorite line I've seen in like, over a year. I have him big tonight.

I haven't watched Bellator in a while but Pat Curran was legit when I did. How does this new guy stack up (his record makes him look like a KO machine)?

Ninja PD
Jul 21, 2006


I like Vitor fights because they are easy to predict. Lukehold takes this easy.

$13.38 to win $11.63 on Rockhold @ -115

That's the remainder of my account. I won't mind if I lose so I can stop doing this poo poo.

Ninja PD
Jul 21, 2006


Ugh, I'm such a degenerate, I can't stop doing this.

I think Jorge Masvidal is going to beat down Michael Chiesa, and probably do it in one round. Lines being Masvidal (-260) to Chiesa (+200), it's not great returns but probably the most value I see this weekend.

Please for the love of the few mismanaged dollars I have tell me why I am wrong.

Ninja PD
Jul 21, 2006


Want the ultimate rush of not betting to win, but betting not to lose? Then do what I just did. gently caress instant gratification and big reward, let's turn this poo poo into bad banking. As long as Aldo doesn't win 50-45 (which is a real possibility), these bets pretty much cover every outcome for a tiny semi-guaranteed return.

Aldo wins inside distance -220
Sung Jung points handicap +9˝ +330

Time to get a little Scalpulator in your life:
Bet 1: $22.00 @ -220
Bet 2: $07.44 @ +330
Total Investment: $29.44
Total Return: $32.00
Total Profit: $2.56
ROI: 8.69%

Basically it's a bet on (the judges not being idiots, already -EV I know) Not Aldo By 50-45 Decision @ -1049

Except for draws and NCs, but those are essentially negligible of course. I think I may have a new problem.

Ninja PD
Jul 21, 2006


I love this thread so loving much.

Ninja PD
Jul 21, 2006


Haha, this thread just keeps on giving. Seriously the best in PSP.

jase1 is a legend. Happy Birthday!

Ninja PD
Jul 21, 2006


golden oldies pete posted:

next card I'm going to oppose your bets again and see if it causes you to win again, and you can count on that !!

We should do a science lab report on this.

Ninja PD
Jul 21, 2006


Meathead $5 to win $5
Bam Bam $3.33 to win $6.66
Parlayed both for $1.67 to win $8.34

Total $10 to win $20

All I need is one of these dudes to win to break even, but what a windfall in deed if they both win.

Ninja PD
Jul 21, 2006


I hope books start offering Over/Under for time spent on the ground.

Ninja PD
Jul 21, 2006


There's value in Dong's size.

Ninja PD
Jul 21, 2006


I'm contemplating putting a decent chunk on Munoz +9.5 handicap @ +140.

Win a round (on all the judge's scorecards) and muster enough cardio to lose the decision, I believe in you Filipino Wrecking Machine.

Ninja PD
Jul 21, 2006


Postfight bet claims don't mean anything but I threw a buck (one dollar) on Newton by Dec @ +1400 because that's a parlay payout on a somewhat likely individual outcome. MONEY MONEY MOOONEY MONEY I'm moving to Vegas and going pro baby!

Ninja PD
Jul 21, 2006


When's the last time there was a draw?

Ninja PD
Jul 21, 2006


I had a $10 free bet and was going to put it on the Chargers (+7) tomorrow, but the only right thing to do was put it on Hendo +180. Since I posted it prefight, expect Belfort by spectacular KO.

Ninja PD
Jul 21, 2006


$2 @ 50-1 for a draw in Diaz/Maynard.

Ninja PD
Jul 21, 2006


Jase theres this cat named Mike Ricci thats a sure thing this fight night I tell ya


vvvvvvv I don't know exactly how but you'll profit tonight vvvvvvv

Ninja PD fucked around with this message at Mar 1, 2014 around 00:54

Ninja PD
Jul 21, 2006


That line is bizarrely heavy sided, I suspect MMAth has a lot to do with it since Rockhold just stopped Costa who stole Boetsch's soul when he made him bleed his own blood. Boetsch is pretty much a classic Strikeforce contender and should be the dog but that's whacky. I'd quote it more at -400/+300 so there's value in it for a small play, but Boetsch should lose the decision. (just checking the odds and the fight isn't expected to make it the end which I though would have been more likely)

Ninja PD
Jul 21, 2006


I wonder if the stats are trending to more fights ending in the last rounds than before.

It's live. Wrong thread.

Ninja PD
Jul 21, 2006


No one taking OSP or Maynard tonight? At around ~+150, those two are just value enough to place a few bones methinks. Bit on Boetsch for old times sake.

Ninja PD
Jul 21, 2006


Already the best ppv of all time.

Ninja PD
Jul 21, 2006


I haven't been this whet since centsports closed up shop.

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Ninja PD
Jul 21, 2006


I wish the fighters namedropped their past opponents more during the promo videos instead of these blurry flash clips, like who did Cole fight in hostile territory and come away the win with before?

Or Evan lol

Triticum Guzzler posted:

with stakes this high i say put your money on the only fight that makes sense: Mickael Lebout vs. Teemu Packalén, neither of whom anybody has ever heard of

i really liked this one

Ninja PD fucked around with this message at Jul 18, 2015 around 19:00

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