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CRISPYBABY
Dec 15, 2007

*~ayoo comin thru~*


Shogun's around +160 against Jones. I'm not sold on his standup yet, and I think over the course of a five rounder Shogun's gonna find the opportunity to light him up sometime.

At UFC 127, my favorite underdog pick is Jorge Rivera. He's a serious underdog at +275, but Bisping's perennially overrated. Rivera's standup looked really crisp in his last fight and he hits really hard.

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CRISPYBABY
Dec 15, 2007

*~ayoo comin thru~*


How do you guys feel about betting on overdogs? I've always figured if they're over -150 or something it's just not worth the risk.

CRISPYBABY
Dec 15, 2007

*~ayoo comin thru~*


http://www.bestfightodds.com/events...ltimate-2008-95

Outside of Mir beating Nog, there's nothing too outrageous.

CRISPYBABY
Dec 15, 2007

*~ayoo comin thru~*


I bet on Diabate and Rashad on that card.

But now I'm slightly down again. I'm just taking the small victories here.

CRISPYBABY
Dec 15, 2007

*~ayoo comin thru~*


Sergei has barely fought in the last few years, and Arlovski is horrifically inconsistent. That's a fight that I just wouldn't touch. If I was really pressed I'd be more tempted to bet on Arlovski based on how Sergei got lit up by Jaideep, who doesn't hit as hard (I think) but there's really no good reason to bet on either one of em.

CRISPYBABY
Dec 15, 2007

*~ayoo comin thru~*


Bodog doesn't work that way, but feel free to put all your money on Sergei anyways.

CRISPYBABY
Dec 15, 2007

*~ayoo comin thru~*


Werdum at +600 against Fedor. It was only ten bucks, but that just felt good on principle.

Anytime a line shows up that's over +1000 I almost always toss a couple bucks down on principle, but it's never panned out for me. I've only been betting for the last year or so though (I think this has only come up like three times last year, Jan Finney, some scrub against Mayhem Miller, and some scrub against Megumi Fujii).

CRISPYBABY
Dec 15, 2007

*~ayoo comin thru~*


He did a promo interview the other day where he said that Sot would be impressed with his grappling and that he'd try and submit him if it went to the ground, so I don't think he's really pushing the ground is lava talk publically.

CRISPYBABY
Dec 15, 2007

*~ayoo comin thru~*


I had 20 on Rivera, but the 20 on Perosh covered it.

Coming up this Thursday: Shane Roller. I'd like to think he can wrestlefuck Tavares, though I thought that about Pettis too. But he's a pretty good submission grappler so I don't think he's gonna have any issue with Tavares jits.

CRISPYBABY
Dec 15, 2007

*~ayoo comin thru~*


Sakara's a plus +170 underdog against a guy who's 4-0, making his UFC debut and taking the fight on three weeks notice. Sakara's had a year long layoff and really isn't that great, but I think that's a pretty solid bet.

Apparently the other guy's a wrestler (, pretty bad stylistic matchup) who's a good prospect but I'm not sold on him being such a solid favourite with being called in on short notice, four pro fights and a UFC debut to deal with.

CRISPYBABY
Dec 15, 2007

*~ayoo comin thru~*


Tezcatlipoca posted:

You are going to bet money on Alessio Sakara and you think that it's a solid bet. You have brain damage.

I'm betting on the other guy being lovely more than anything. Shittier than Sakara, anyways.

(i didn't look up he was a div 1 wrestler until after i put down the bet. i'm good at this)

CRISPYBABY
Dec 15, 2007

*~ayoo comin thru~*


Xguard86 posted:

European
Boxer
D1 Wrestler

look how dumb you are.

Also put down ten bucks on noted bad fighter Rob Kimmons without watching any of his or his opponents fights by virtue of the other dude training in Asia.

I'm a degenerate gambler.

CRISPYBABY
Dec 15, 2007

*~ayoo comin thru~*


I dunno if I'd call that looking OK. I remember him getting styled on in the first round grappling wise, even if nothing ever got locked in. But it's also been a while since I've seen that fight, and I think he might have been half-unconcious while he was defending submissions so there's that too.

CRISPYBABY
Dec 15, 2007

*~ayoo comin thru~*


the asian guy won. goddamnit. that wasn't supposed to happen.

E: Aight, Shane Roller's got my back.


E2: Oh poo poo those are probably spoilers.

CRISPYBABY fucked around with this message at Mar 4, 2011 around 01:00

CRISPYBABY
Dec 15, 2007

*~ayoo comin thru~*


Jim Miller seems undervalued as always. Think he's at -155 on bodog. Bendo's good, but I like that line.

e: Woops, he's at -175, but I'd still probably take him at anything under -200.

CRISPYBABY fucked around with this message at Aug 14, 2011 around 02:30

CRISPYBABY
Dec 15, 2007

*~ayoo comin thru~*


Hughes was a dog in the third BJ Penn fight. I made that mistake.

CRISPYBABY
Dec 15, 2007

*~ayoo comin thru~*


J-Mac's definitely the best bet. Belcher is the better fighter, but his eye was poked out and he's coming off a year and a half layoff so he could be really lovely. At +240 he's really tempting.

Cody Mckenzie at +140 also seems like a decent bet, since all we've seen of Vagner Rocha is the ability to get kicked in the leg over and over again and the only reason he's in the UFC is because he was a late replacement last June.

CRISPYBABY
Dec 15, 2007

*~ayoo comin thru~*


Lid posted:

Don't bet on MMA. Given the Mayweather-Ortiz situation we can change it to simply "Don't Bet" at this point.

I don't. That doesn't stop me from handing out [apparently horrible] speculation though.

CRISPYBABY
Dec 15, 2007

*~ayoo comin thru~*


Believe it or not, he was the underdog when the line opened.

CRISPYBABY
Dec 15, 2007

*~ayoo comin thru~*


Just realized my Bodog account has 6 bucks left in it. I don't want to put more money in it because its a bad habit, but I'm desperately gonna try to get it back up to a reasonable bank roll of like 20 or 30 bucks or something.

I put the 6 bucks on a Mighty Mouse/Joe/Phillipou parlay. I normally don't do parlay's but like I said I'm kinda desperate here because slow and steady is gonna get me to 10 bucks in half a year. I figure Joe's about as close to a lock you can get and Mighty Mouse is almost as likely to win, so Phillopou's in there as a multiplier because Court McGee is a bad fighter and Phillopou hits hard as gently caress.

If this hits, I'm planning to put it all on Miesha Tate. Bodog doesn't have odds for her yet, but I hope they go up on Saturday. Most places have her at +250 which I think is pretty ridiculous.

CRISPYBABY
Dec 15, 2007

*~ayoo comin thru~*


maffew buildings posted:

Ian McCall is really, really good, sleeping on him is a risk to your money, he's in no way a lock like an Alpha Male wrestling a Japanese man is

Yeah, I literally know nothing about him so calling him a lock is pretty stupid on my part. I'm willing to bet 6 bucks that someone who hasn't fought in the UFC would lose to Mighty Mouse though.

CRISPYBABY
Dec 15, 2007

*~ayoo comin thru~*


This thread isn't called the bet on MMA thread for a reason, dudes.

CRISPYBABY
Dec 15, 2007

*~ayoo comin thru~*


I'd love to see Bendo win tonight, but the +170 that Frankie is at seems like he's undervalued to me. Something will probably happen that will make me look stupid, but I think the line should be pretty close to even.

The easiest bet I've ever made was Frankie by decision for +450 or so in the Penn rematch. Dude never gets respect from odds makers.

CRISPYBABY
Dec 15, 2007

*~ayoo comin thru~*


Street Horrrsing posted:

So far today, I've managed to miss my flight, and sit on my balls. Think I'm going to round out my day, and Bet on MMA.

Is bodog a good site to use?

I've never used any other site and I haven't used em in about two years, so some people who are into line shopping might not like them but AFAIK they're as legit as it comes for sports betting. When I cashed out I had a check on my doorstep three days later or something stupid fast like that.

CRISPYBABY
Dec 15, 2007

*~ayoo comin thru~*


the lows of mma betting are amazing.

CRISPYBABY
Dec 15, 2007

*~ayoo comin thru~*


poo poo like that makes me feel like betting on MMA again.

CRISPYBABY
Dec 15, 2007

*~ayoo comin thru~*


Just reopened my Bodog account. God help me. Aside from two stupid one buck parlays(1 on the main card + J lau, 1 on calling all the fights except one because Bodog only lets you parlay up to 12), I have....

15 bucks Chael Sonnen -120

Shogun is old and crippled.

10 bucks Mike "Quicksand" Pyle +130

I'm still not convinced Matt Brown is a good fighter.

5 bucks John "Doomsday" Howard +325

Hall is overhyped.
(Note to self: I bet against Jones in the Matyushenko, Vera, and Bader fights saying he was overhyped. You think I'd learn).

5 bucks Steven "Super" Siler +170

Both these guys have looked pretty goddamn bad lately. I wanna see Mike Brown rip his head off, but I think he might curl up into a depressed ball.

Cole "Magrinho" Miller EVEN

Cole and Manny both suck poo poo but Manny sucks more so I'm not sure why Cole's the underdog.

CRISPYBABY
Dec 15, 2007

*~ayoo comin thru~*


Well I bet 15 bucks on Sonnen so I'd like a pat on the back too please for winning and for being smart enough not to put $15,000 on loving MMA.

CRISPYBABY
Dec 15, 2007

*~ayoo comin thru~*


Betting on Frank Mir makes me feel weird but anytime I see a hyped person from outside the UFC enter it against a veteran as an overdog dollar signs start showing up in my eyes.

CRISPYBABY
Dec 15, 2007

*~ayoo comin thru~*


All I have on tonight is a twelve fight one dollar lottery. Aside from the no contest, I've hit the other six so far (i think the no contest doesnt count as a loss) . Crossing my finger on the next five.

Mizugaki
Whittaker
Kelvin
Cowboy
Condit

CRISPYBABY
Dec 15, 2007

*~ayoo comin thru~*


I hope not. I've gotten money back for draws before, so I thiiiiiiink I'm good but this might just lead to disappointment.

Of course, because 12 fight parlays are stupid I'm probably gonna lose out on one of the next fights but a man can dream.

CRISPYBABY
Dec 15, 2007

*~ayoo comin thru~*


attackmole posted:



Of course, because 12 fight parlays are stupid I'm probably gonna lose out on one of the next fights but a man can dream.

CRISPYBABY
Dec 15, 2007

*~ayoo comin thru~*


I got money on Poirer, Soa, and Mir. Too many bets on heavyweights for me to be comfortable but whatever, the lines made it seem like a good idea at the time.

CRISPYBABY
Dec 15, 2007

*~ayoo comin thru~*


Soa won me about 7 bucks, but the real winner was my heart.

CRISPYBABY
Dec 15, 2007

*~ayoo comin thru~*


Just put 5 bucks to win 45 on Benson by submission because I'm a degenerate gambler and a moron.

CRISPYBABY
Dec 15, 2007

*~ayoo comin thru~*


My one dollar Formiga/Okami/Bader parlay isn't looking too hot.

CRISPYBABY
Dec 15, 2007

*~ayoo comin thru~*


I have 20 on Healy and 10 on Carmont because I'm a moron.

CRISPYBABY
Dec 15, 2007

*~ayoo comin thru~*


Uh I have no idea why you'd think Miller fades after one round. Dude's had tons of three round fights where he looked fine.

CRISPYBABY
Dec 15, 2007

*~ayoo comin thru~*


Welp. Apparently the oddsmakers were right on Pat Healy. Didn't expect that. I haven't seen odds deviate from rankings/fighter perception that much in a while, but poo poo, guess it didn't pay off.

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CRISPYBABY
Dec 15, 2007

*~ayoo comin thru~*


Fat Twitter Man posted:

Fitch got dropped a couple times and had his back taken for most of the second. Everyone remembers Silva gassing and getting Fitched hard, but that was only three minutes of a 15-minute fight. I can't think of a Kim fight where he really got into trouble or went into deep waters like that.



Silva isn't Condit, mind you, but still.....

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