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Ty1990
Apr 22, 2011

My buddy is telling me to ignore the -340 odds; put as much as I can allow myself on Woodley because it's free money.


Somebody please talk me out of it.

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Ty1990
Apr 22, 2011

Parlaying Kos with Diaz for tomorrow night. Kos is almost a sure thing so I pretty much did that so I could get even odds for Diaz/Condit.

Ty1990
Apr 22, 2011

fatherdog posted:

Not really.

Well I'm relativley new to following MMA (around UFC 100 I started following) so I reckon most posters here have stronger grip on this than I do...care to explain why? I realize "it's a fight and it only takes one shot", but when I heard this mathchup I expected at least a -300 price stamped on Kos.

Ty1990
Apr 22, 2011

fatherdog posted:

It would probably be quicker for you to explain why you think Kos is "almost a sure thing", since there aren't many reasons to actually think that

Nothing is a sure thing. That was probably too strong a statement to make. However unless Kos has an awful night, or overlooks Pierce (if there's such a thing), I don't see Pierce winning. Kos is as good or better at almost everything.

Ty1990
Apr 22, 2011

fatherdog posted:

Actually he's almost definitely a worse technical striker than Pierce

I'd disagree with this personally, but I'm not going to act like I break down film on each man.

Ty1990
Apr 22, 2011

MrSmokes posted:

Kos thinks his striking is a lot better than it really is. He gets hit a lot, and while he has power, so does Pierce. Kos has the wrestling advantage, but I don't think he has so much of an advantage that he'll reliably get Pierce down and keep him there. I see this fight consisting of a lot of standup, with Pierce having the edge. Kos really doesn't have a distinct path to victory in this fight like he did against Daley (wrestling) or Hughes (striking), and even Hughes was landing a lot at first.

In short Pierce is a really good underdog.

Solid points and fair enough. That being said I still don't think Pierce wins this fight. Kos by UD I'm thinking.

Ty1990
Apr 22, 2011

:stare: I stand corrected on Pierce.

Ty1990
Apr 22, 2011

Chimney Sweeps Week posted:

You got lucky this time, but soon you will learn not to bet on MMA.

Believe me, it's noted.

Ty1990
Apr 22, 2011

Don't bet on MMA.

Ty1990
Apr 22, 2011

I got Melvin tonight. Feel free to laugh in about 2 hours.

Ty1990
Apr 22, 2011

I won money betting on MMA today...

Ty1990
Apr 22, 2011

One Post Wonder posted:

Clearly you've got what it takes!

Keep us posted.

You think? Seems like easy money for sure.




For the record I had a Te Huna/Barao parlay. I didn't post the picks because I never win betting on MMA and didn't see the point of getting laughed at.

Ty1990
Apr 22, 2011

Something for you all to laugh at to start your Friday:


quote:

Mixed Martial Arts (Game) Moneyline

Both must fight for action.

Bellator 90- West Valley City, Utah.

Shahbulat "Assassin" Shamhalaev +150.

Competitor: Rad Martinez

Risk $24.48 to win $36.42

Ty1990
Apr 22, 2011

LobsterMobster posted:

Dude, don't bet against Rad :smith:

I'm a terrible person :(

Ty1990
Apr 22, 2011


Not even kidding; I don't know if I've ever felt dirtier winning a bet.

Ty1990
Apr 22, 2011

quote:


2 team parlay.


Urijah "The California Kid" Faber -400

Lyoto "The Dragon" Machida -235

Risk $70.00 to win $54.73




In before H Bomb.

Ty1990
Apr 22, 2011

I really like Diego on Saturday, but want to parlay him with somebody. This card looks tough to call; what does everybody think? I'm leaning Diego/Stann.

Ty1990
Apr 22, 2011

Unfortuanatley, I didn't get to post some of my picks in here since I was out and placing the bets on my phone. They were all spur of the moment kind of bets. However, last night was probably my luckiest night of betting MMA ever.

Won a 2 fight parlay with Mizugaki and Sanchez. Both were fights in which my pick arguably lost.

Won a straight bet on Yushin Okami at +195 and was screaming at the TV "LAY ON HIM YUSHIN!" the entire fight.

Won a straight bet on Mark Hunt at +175 and probably had the most fun I've ever had watching a heavyweight fight.

I literally through 5 dollars to win 2 on Brian Stann just because, but it was well worth it. I finished up about 60 bucks for the event.

Ty1990
Apr 22, 2011

Took Popo at -145 tonight. Really like him in this fight.

Ty1990
Apr 22, 2011

Fentry posted:

200 down on Diaz at +350, gently caress everything I have faith

:stare:

Ty1990
Apr 22, 2011

At -140, Pat Curran is my favorite line I've seen in like, over a year. I have him big tonight.

Ty1990
Apr 22, 2011

If I wasn't a Nate Diaz fan I'd be all over Thomson. Nate is at -210 at my book which is a bit loving absurd.

Ty1990
Apr 22, 2011

willie_dee posted:

I put a free bet on Chael.

Probably the only bet anybody should put on Chael :(

Ty1990
Apr 22, 2011

Just lost my job..lets get some winners in here.

Ty1990
Apr 22, 2011

Save Russian Jews posted:

how the hell is that only 10.74:1

I believe every fighter but hunt is a decent sized favorite.

Ty1990
Apr 22, 2011

Dan Henderson sucks in the year of our lord 2013. That's all.

Ty1990
Apr 22, 2011

I've bet on the Undertaker before but for some reason I just didn't do it this year. Boy did I dodge a loving bullet.

Ty1990
Apr 22, 2011

DO YALL WANT A BOXC posted:

jones at - 170 is a pretty good bet

Ugh I agree with this.

Ty1990
Apr 22, 2011

Draft King's lineup: (50k cap).



Danny Castillo (10,900)
Cody Garbrandt (8,700)
Hector Lombard (12,100)
Brad Tavares (9,300)
Myles Jury (8,800)



I picked Castillo because I had about 11k left over after picking my first 4 and wanted to fill out my lineup with another decent sized favorite (he's -235 at the moment).


I picked Cody Garbrandt because Marcus Brimage sucks.


I picked Hector Lombard because he's probably going to win and finish the fight and early. Those are all things you are scored on.


I picked Brad Tavares because Nate Marquardt sucks (so does Brad but whatever).


I picked Myles Jury because the betting odds on SER-O-NAY have plummeted in the past few hours (-210 to -160) and I think Jury is one of the most live dogs on this whole card. Plus you get some points for significant strikes and Jury's got great hands and Donald is very hittable.


I was really tempted to pick the main event just because, but I'm emotionally invested in that fight enough.


I typed a lot right there for losing 12 dollars.

Ty1990
Apr 22, 2011

I'm gonna second the Thatch thing.

Ty1990
Apr 22, 2011

I bet on Thatch wish I would've posted it though.

Ty1990
Apr 22, 2011

The Duck of Death posted:

If I bet on Brown/Hendricks to end in under 3.5 rounds, will 5dimes cancel my bet when they realize it's a three-round fight?

Yes

Ty1990
Apr 22, 2011

We need Jase in here to throw a few bucks on Vitor.

Ty1990
Apr 22, 2011

Gross Weidman is down to -380 from -500. It probably means nothing but I don't like to see the line change that drastically in a short span.

Ty1990
Apr 22, 2011

jase1 posted:

I took a guy for a grand at the pool table last night and it's been awhile so here you go.

$1000 to win $4500 on Vitor Belfort.

You are the best jase.

Ty1990
Apr 22, 2011

The Duck of Death posted:

Actually, Rothwell by KO at +285 is pretty enticing.

You should bet it.

Ty1990
Apr 22, 2011

I bet a decent amount on Boestch at -200 because he's not 2015 Dan Henderson.

Ty1990
Apr 22, 2011

gently caress

Ty1990
Apr 22, 2011

Skip My Posts posted:

The best way is to know other degenerates that use real life bookies

This is how I bet. Sometimes if said bookie is stupid you can really take him. I'm kinda sorta friends with my bookie and he gave me Weidman +400 against Silva the first fight and +350 the second fight (we had tense drunk debates about who would win these fights and that's how it ended up eventually). Trying to get him to give me Conor even on Saturday since he pretty strongly feels Mendes will win but I'm not willing to meet the minimum he's making me bet.

Bovada is the best site I've used. Your payouts come pretty timely and it's a shady rear end check from Hong Kong but it's perfectly legal. If you don't feel like giving it to a teller you can always just put it in the ATM and it clears just fine.

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Ty1990
Apr 22, 2011

Marching Powder posted:

almeida is a sick striker but brad pickett is technically very good and pickett's an obscene underdog for his level of experience so i'm putting a fiver on ol one punch and that just might pay for my drinks

nah you just gambled away a drink

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