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Bundt Cake
Aug 16, 2003
;(

ForbiddenWonder posted:

+405. I can't believe Machida is such a huge favorite (-335) against Handy. The big question in that fight is weather Couture can get within clinch range before getting picked apart.

i think the big question is how can you possibly think randy, who couldn't take down and control big nogueira or vera, and got knocked down by big nogueira, is gonna be able to avoid getting KOd by machida

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Bundt Cake
Aug 16, 2003
;(

the lines were pretty goofy on anderson v leben and franklin, also recently the line for Carwin v Mir was real goofy and i made like 50 bucks

Bundt Cake
Aug 16, 2003
;(

FantasyMissionForce posted:

Jones is in over his head the UFC threw him in the deep end. He hasn't fought anyone with striking or jiu jitsu half as good as Shogun's

stephan bonnar

don't worry it helps your case

on the other hand, don't bet on shogun

Bundt Cake
Aug 16, 2003
;(

i think the odds of shogun turning up like poo poo are pretty high to begin with, then you have to slice his chances of winning out of whatever's left. Do not bet on Shogun.

Bundt Cake
Aug 16, 2003
;(

he turned up looking like poo poo against nakamura without a knee injury. Don't bet on Shogun.

unless you really want i guess

Bundt Cake fucked around with this message at Feb 10, 2011 around 04:21

Bundt Cake
Aug 16, 2003
;(

Always bet on genitals you've seen

Bundt Cake
Aug 16, 2003
;(

its good to see knowledgeable people like fentry lose because it reminds me don't bet on mma

Bundt Cake
Aug 16, 2003
;(

Pelleas posted:

Anyone think Cb Dollaway would be a good bet against Mark Munoz?
Seems like a closer fight then the lines indicate. Someone tell me I'm a moron.

i wouldn't bet on this fight. unless one guy owns the wrestling, it's going to be sloppy wrestleboxer hell and between two guys with lovely striking and bad defense, its really hard to say that one guy has an advantage. although if CB's performance against doerksen is indicative of him becoming a super dangerous grappler, he'll probably supergrapple his way to a win in this fight too. but i wouldn't bet on it.

Bundt Cake
Aug 16, 2003
;(

pelleas, did you end up betting on munoz/dolloway?

Bundt Cake
Aug 16, 2003
;(

red19fire posted:

ahahaha.

Munoz, Wiedman, Sanchez. Bet on MMA, y'all.

when your parlays depend on total robberies you should probably rethink the idea that you're good at betting on mma

Bundt Cake
Aug 16, 2003
;(

Bubba Smith posted:

the next MMA underdog to bet on is Matt Wiman over Dennis Siver

id like to hear the reasoning for this

Bundt Cake
Aug 16, 2003
;(

it wasnt enough to handle tavares

but wimans hail mary KO was better than rashads on chuck and wiman got screwed out of recognition for having the most brutal one punch knock out that year

Bundt Cake
Aug 16, 2003
;(

Beowulf LaGrange posted:

i lost the money.

you aren't the first to lose their fortune on a horse

Bundt Cake
Aug 16, 2003
;(

willie_dee posted:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pdr4TFJpn1c - if he can beat him like this then he is probably a dead cert against anyone in the UFC

that ring lol

Bundt Cake
Aug 16, 2003
;(

the aftermath posted:

Made a little coin on a parlay with some heavy chalk last night. Jorgensen/Stephens was easy money.

I like Carwin to destroy JDS on the 11th. Carwin's got more power and better wrestling with a solid chin. Plus he's trimmed down so he should be in better condition this time around. The only question mark is whether his time off will be a factor.

Also considering Nunes at +220 and Mark Munoz at -130

You should watch Nunes fights again if you haven't. He doesn't have a lot of power, and mostly relies on narrowly outpointing guys in the striking in the second two rounds. Unless Kenny's cut is unbelievably bad, Nunes is going to be in the deepest water he's been in his entire career on every front.

Bundt Cake
Aug 16, 2003
;(

fatherdog posted:

If there's one thing you can take away from Silva/Maia and Silva/Leites, it's that a grappler that fights cautiously on the feet is not at all guaranteed to get blown out early against Silva.

I agree with your point

but I thought thales pursued takedowns aggressively for the first two rounds. I might be misremembering, but I don't think he started doing his buttflop thing until round 3, and I think he actually won two rounds on some scorecards

well if this play by play is right at all I don't remember correctly http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2009/4/1...silva-vs-thales

quote:

Official Scorecards: 49-46, 48-47, 50-46

thales came closer to beating Anderson than anyone but chael

Bundt Cake fucked around with this message at Aug 15, 2011 around 18:47

Bundt Cake
Aug 16, 2003
;(

hughes is a dog against sanchez and i need to be here now so i dont lose any money on this

Bundt Cake
Aug 16, 2003
;(

Don't bet on mma

Bundt Cake
Aug 16, 2003
;(

Omgkittens posted:

Palaszewski is at 3 to 1 odds to win against Griffin, which seems like pretty good odds to me. Tyson has been looking pretty average for some time now. Might have to put some cash on Palaszewski to win.

palaszweski has good punching and great, really phenomenal power, and tyson griffin is the absolute stereotype of wrestleboxer stupidity, but realistically much worse guys have used their grappling to beat bart, and he probably will too. barts always got a real punchers chance unlike most times when people say a guy has a punchers chance, but you probably shouldnt spend your money this way

Bundt Cake
Aug 16, 2003
;(

Bubba Smith posted:

The only underdog bet I feel strongly about is Terry Etim over Edson Barboza. I don't know why because I don't really know poo poo about Terry Etim, but it feels right.

Quote this when I lose 10 dollars on my strong feelings about a British fighter

quoting in advance

you bet on a skinny twig man

Bundt Cake
Aug 16, 2003
;(

Captain Log posted:

Has anyone noticed that Gonzaga is fighting a weird skinny/chubby bullshido guy? Put all of your moneys on the Gonzaga.

The only thing Gonzaga was every really great at was smashing regional type fighters so yeah

Bundt Cake
Aug 16, 2003
;(

Bubba Smith posted:

twig man fell down like a tree

Etim held his own in the striking for the first two rounds like I thought he would, but I also thought he was going to have the advantage on the ground and he didn't.

oh well.

etim had the chops to strike with him but his skinny twig legs didnt hold up

Bundt Cake
Aug 16, 2003
;(

Kos has a presumed wrestling advantage in most fights, so Koscheck v a wrestler who isn't very well known,., I can understand why someone would think that Kos would have it in the bag.

Bundt Cake
Aug 16, 2003
;(

MrSmokes posted:

but I don't think he has so much of an advantage that he'll reliably get Pierce down and keep him there.

there's a good chance this assumption is incorrect

Bundt Cake
Aug 16, 2003
;(

fatherdog posted:

There is, but there's also a good chance it's not, and I'm not sure we've actually seen enough to say either way.

Even if Kos does have a big wrestling advantage he still might Stand and Bang !!! anyway

Bundt Cake
Aug 16, 2003
;(

fatherdog posted:

Kos is usually pretty consistent in that he'll Stand And Bang until he starts getting the worst of it, at which point he'll immediately start wrestling.

Sure but there are fights he approaches differently. And I think he might be a bad judge of how the stand up is going for him

Bundt Cake
Aug 16, 2003
;(

fatherdog posted:

Honestly aside from the Daley fight I have a hard time thinking of any, unless you go back to before the second Diego fight which was where he started to have confidence in his punching.

The ones that come to mind are the Diego rematch, where his plan seemed to be more along the lines of stay far away then steal the round with a takedown at the end, until Diego swept him in two seconds and his plan changed to stay far away 100% of the time. Though he never ended up getting in trouble standing, so maybe he would've shot. The Alves fight he seemed to pretty much want to get it down like the Daley fight but he couldn't. The Lytle fight too, he looked to get it down until he gassed hard and Lytle punched him a bunch of times in the third. Against Hazelett Koscheck kept swinging even after he got rocked, although he did go for takedowns in that fight.

Anyway it's not many exceptions but it seems like there are times when he has a bit of a different game plan.

Bundt Cake
Aug 16, 2003
;(

Don't bet on Lauzon against Pettis. its crazy. Pettis is a really good fighter, and theres a good chance Lauzon won't be able to get him down at all. And even if he gets him down, theres slim to no chance hes going to be the first guy to TKO Pettis. There are a lot of times when I have and would pick Lauzon but this ain't one

Bundt Cake
Aug 16, 2003
;(

Bubba Smith posted:

Alright, this sounds good. Just like fatherdog talked about Joe Lauzon seems like a really good fighter too (at certain times during the fight) and I figured he may be able to win the first two rounds in a fight that goes to the decision. But I guess I'll just stay away and put more money on Frankie.

Lauzon has the skills/brains to take out guys with some weakness he can exploit, usually poo poo ground game or bad punching habits. Pettis looked wrestleable against Clay, but hardly anyone has the style of wrestling that Clay does, and Pettis has showed some good wrestling ability before. Joe can't imitate Clay's takedown attack for three rounds unless he's tripled his endurance. So unless he has found some hole to exploit in Pettis' striking, or something he does on the ground that Joe could take advantage of to land shots, I don't really know what Joe's path to victory would be.

Pettis has fought Castillo, Roller, Henderson and Guida in the past few years so he's familiar with fighting wrestlers as good or better than Lauzon. Both Pettis & Joe outwrestled Jeremy Stephens. Joe did it by a bigger margin but Stephens took that one on short notice. THe fights are years apart so maybe Stephens improved, too, who knows.

Bundt Cake
Aug 16, 2003
;(

Thermos H Christ posted:

don't buy this card and pretend you won $50

this is the best mma betting advice I've read since don't bet on mma.

Bundt Cake
Aug 16, 2003
;(

Im gonna go ahead and say Rich Franklin winning by decision is probably the most likely thing that will happen but please don't blame me if you follow my advice and it turns out wrong

Russow isn't likely to get knocked out but he is pretty likely to lose the stand up or get tapped if he takes it down so probably don't bet on russow

Bundt Cake
Aug 16, 2003
;(

Ninja PD posted:

Oh Bundt, Ive been sweating it out for someone to agree with me so I have some justification for my degenerate ways. A sort of transference of responsibility, so if it doesn't work out, I coming after you. I'm coming after your sweet rear end Bundt...

sounds good

Bundt Cake
Aug 16, 2003
;(

jase1 posted:

Does anyone think Ortiz has a shot of winning? I am a casual MMA fan and I only know him on name recognition so I don't know if +225 is good value.

Its not, really. He could get Forrest down and hammer his face enough to steal rounds, but hes got the worst spine in the world and can't get Forrest down reliably and even if he does, Forrest swept him in the last fight and wound up getting the better of things, and as far as standing, neither guy is likely to put the other one out but Forrest can move better and has way more solid kickboxing skills

Don't bet on this:

Bundt Cake
Aug 16, 2003
;(

Cormier might be stronger I guess but I'd say since hes probably a diet away from 205 and Mir can hulk up to 250 and still be relatively quick and mobile there's a pretty good chance Cormier won't have a strength advantage

Also as far as the striking I don't know why Cormier is so much better than Mir. Both guys have some good points and some bad points with their hands and they both mostly rely on them

Bundt Cake fucked around with this message at Apr 18, 2013 around 19:04

Bundt Cake
Aug 16, 2003
;(

Elemennop posted:

Unless Mir has changed, from what I've seen, he has terrible, terrible striking defense for an elite fighter.

This is heavyweight

quote:

I'm too lazy to actually research his fights,

Then I recommend not commenting


quote:

but looking it up on fightmetric,

A bad decision

Bundt Cake
Aug 16, 2003
;(

Elemennop posted:

I admit my failures, but I'm not about to start breaking down tape of Frank Mir for fun.

And that's fair enough. I don't think Frank's striking is so much worse than the other top guys at HW, though. Yeah Junior KO'd him but he's the best at KO'ing people in the division. He smoked Nogeuira once and got punched silly once. Other than that he's done pretty well for himself

He does have the ability to instantly lose that I wouldn't be surprised to see in a fight against anyone

Bundt Cake
Aug 16, 2003
;(

Ty1990 posted:

Just lost my job..lets get some winners in here.

lol

Bundt Cake
Aug 16, 2003
;(

thee best thread

Bundt Cake
Aug 16, 2003
;(

Given how he's looked lately I think Damien Maia is always going to be a big favorite against a grappling based fighter until one beats him

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Bundt Cake
Aug 16, 2003
;(

fatherdog posted:

I'm not sure characterizing Kos as a "grappler" is really reflective of how that match is going to go.

So then if Kos does stay on his feet, which I don't think is a given, hes gonna be relying on his stand up, which is poo poo. I don't think he's got too good of a shot in this fight

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