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Bubba Smith
Sep 27, 2004

Is tonight the greatest moment in Dominick Cruz's life?

No.

The greatest moment in my life was realizing that I didn't need a belt to be happy.


K8.0 posted:

The biggest problem with betting on MMA is that fighters are stupid and even if someone has a clear path to victory they will often decide to do something else entirely and lose.

the biggest problem with betting on MMA are the athletic commissions and the people they appoint to judge fights.


I would like a section devoted to how retarded parlays are. betting on mma is pretty stupid, but doing parlays on mma fights is like frank mir putting on 25 lbs of muscle over a summer then trying to cut 60 lbs in a month levels of retarded.

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Bubba Smith
Sep 27, 2004

Is tonight the greatest moment in Dominick Cruz's life?

No.

The greatest moment in my life was realizing that I didn't need a belt to be happy.


The sweetest parlay I pulled off successfully was UFC on Versus 1 where I correctly had JDS, Jones, Kongo and Sakara and a few of the undercard people. Almost every other parlay that was 3 or more without a huge favorite on it (I used to throw GSP on to every one of my bets because it was worth the extra few dollars for almost no risk) ended in failure.

I rarely place bets anymore but when I do they are only single bets from now on.

Bubba Smith
Sep 27, 2004

Is tonight the greatest moment in Dominick Cruz's life?

No.

The greatest moment in my life was realizing that I didn't need a belt to be happy.


I've never used 5dimes but the customer service on Bodog was always nice and easy to work with whenever I had a problem.

don't bet on mma though please for the love of jonny bones god don't.

Bubba Smith
Sep 27, 2004

Is tonight the greatest moment in Dominick Cruz's life?

No.

The greatest moment in my life was realizing that I didn't need a belt to be happy.


I did a parlay prop bet on the Mayweather/Mosley fight where I had Mayweather winning the fight, and mayweather winning by decision. I can't remember how much I made off the 20 I bet (I think it was 27?) but it was the safest bet I've ever taken in my life.

I don't know if I would take Pacquaio stopping Shane though.

Bubba Smith
Sep 27, 2004

Is tonight the greatest moment in Dominick Cruz's life?

No.

The greatest moment in my life was realizing that I didn't need a belt to be happy.


Yeah I remember being nervous when Naz was saying something like "Shane you're gonna make me do it unless you show me something" in the 10th or 11th round.

I don't think Pacquaio finishing Shane within 12 is a bad bet, but I would first need to see the line on Pacman winning by decision.

Bubba Smith
Sep 27, 2004

Is tonight the greatest moment in Dominick Cruz's life?

No.

The greatest moment in my life was realizing that I didn't need a belt to be happy.


I love these forums, and that post should just be the entire OP. I like what you did jeffersonlives but that post should be all that is needed to explain MMA betting.

Bubba Smith
Sep 27, 2004

Is tonight the greatest moment in Dominick Cruz's life?

No.

The greatest moment in my life was realizing that I didn't need a belt to be happy.


a can of tuna almost took out alessio sakara

Bubba Smith
Sep 27, 2004

Is tonight the greatest moment in Dominick Cruz's life?

No.

The greatest moment in my life was realizing that I didn't need a belt to be happy.


the next MMA underdog to bet on is Matt Wiman over Dennis Siver

Bubba Smith
Sep 27, 2004

Is tonight the greatest moment in Dominick Cruz's life?

No.

The greatest moment in my life was realizing that I didn't need a belt to be happy.


Siver hasn't been taken down in a long time (at least not that I can remember), but he hasn't been facing world class wrestlers either. Siver also is still gassing in his fights because he is large despite being a relatively small LW. Combined with Matt Wiman looking better each time he fights, and this is a very winnable fight for Wiman.

Bubba Smith
Sep 27, 2004

Is tonight the greatest moment in Dominick Cruz's life?

No.

The greatest moment in my life was realizing that I didn't need a belt to be happy.


maybe fatherdog could start probating people for putting up bad picks. It would add to the overall enjoyment of this thread. I will start:

bet the farm on boetsch

Bubba Smith
Sep 27, 2004

Is tonight the greatest moment in Dominick Cruz's life?

No.

The greatest moment in my life was realizing that I didn't need a belt to be happy.


HATE MONDAYS posted:

And he won. Maybe if you had been more confident and bet 5x as much, the "odds" wouldnt have mattered so much.

that is how I used to bet and it worked pretty well for a while. I'd throw down a lot of money on GSP and just collect a little bit of earnings on it, and use those earnings to make the riskier bets.

until one day I bet big on bj penn against a young up and coming kid named frankie and ever since then I haven't bet big on anybody or liked new jersey as much

Bubba Smith
Sep 27, 2004

Is tonight the greatest moment in Dominick Cruz's life?

No.

The greatest moment in my life was realizing that I didn't need a belt to be happy.


My only great regret in life is I did not just send that 20 dollars to Mark Coleman in an envelope.

I remember mma daydreaming about telling my friends I just made 62 dollars on Mark Coleman beating randy couture.

Bubba Smith
Sep 27, 2004

Is tonight the greatest moment in Dominick Cruz's life?

No.

The greatest moment in my life was realizing that I didn't need a belt to be happy.


Bubba Smith posted:

bet the farm on boetsch

I hope someone other than me did this because

probation averted

Bubba Smith
Sep 27, 2004

Is tonight the greatest moment in Dominick Cruz's life?

No.

The greatest moment in my life was realizing that I didn't need a belt to be happy.


Charlie Brenneman +160 over Anthony "Rumble" Johnson this weekend

getting that urge

to bet on MMA

Bubba Smith
Sep 27, 2004

Is tonight the greatest moment in Dominick Cruz's life?

No.

The greatest moment in my life was realizing that I didn't need a belt to be happy.


I lost overall on Brenneman but I also put a lot on Cruz and he didn't let me down. but still, gently caress.

Bubba Smith
Sep 27, 2004

Is tonight the greatest moment in Dominick Cruz's life?

No.

The greatest moment in my life was realizing that I didn't need a belt to be happy.


that actually isn't a bad avatar bundt. it's nothing but facts

Bubba Smith
Sep 27, 2004

Is tonight the greatest moment in Dominick Cruz's life?

No.

The greatest moment in my life was realizing that I didn't need a belt to be happy.


Remora posted:

8 for 9.

Man, if this thing holds up reasonably well through the end of the year, I might put down actual money on some of these fights.

you don't think that's how every MMA bettor got started? Sure, we can all pick them well when money isn't on the line. then you start betting heavy on melvin guillard because he's a young guy without a drug problem, good family man, finishes fights, benches 315 pounds cold, and even has that look in his eyes.

you don't know

Bubba Smith
Sep 27, 2004

Is tonight the greatest moment in Dominick Cruz's life?

No.

The greatest moment in my life was realizing that I didn't need a belt to be happy.


Moose Bigelow posted:

He got popped for cocaine usage after the Joe Daddy fight.

I mean now. he's matured and doesn't get in trouble anymore.

Bubba Smith
Sep 27, 2004

Is tonight the greatest moment in Dominick Cruz's life?

No.

The greatest moment in my life was realizing that I didn't need a belt to be happy.


nope.

not even at those odds.

Bubba Smith
Sep 27, 2004

Is tonight the greatest moment in Dominick Cruz's life?

No.

The greatest moment in my life was realizing that I didn't need a belt to be happy.


DumbWhiteGuy posted:

24.13 on Lesnar at +135 to win 32.58. It doesn't matter if he wins or gets viciously knocked out, I will be happy either way.

This is how I am betting on Friday. I think Brock has a great chance to win and even if he doesn't then that means Overeem won his UFC debut, will fight JDS next, and probably earns a knockout win. That's worth losing ten bucks on.

Bubba Smith
Sep 27, 2004

Is tonight the greatest moment in Dominick Cruz's life?

No.

The greatest moment in my life was realizing that I didn't need a belt to be happy.


so I lost on Brock, which is cool because I wanted Overeem to win.

but then I also lost on Fitch because I wanted Fitch to win and I seriously felt a pain in my heart when he got knocked out.

don't bet on MMA guys

though I somehow picked enough of the prelim rights to make my losses not too bad.

Bubba Smith
Sep 27, 2004

Is tonight the greatest moment in Dominick Cruz's life?

No.

The greatest moment in my life was realizing that I didn't need a belt to be happy.


Xguard86 posted:

someone needs to average the goon win/loss rate to see if we even break 50% on picks.

Then again, I guess all the insane parlays really messes that up since you can win $0 being right 2/3rds of the time.

It would also be hard because I'm sure most posters are like me and don't post every pick we make because we know winning isn't entertaining. I bet on Kim and Volkmann and Castillo and Gustafsson this last weekend but that isn't as funny as betting on Brock and Jon Fitch.

I'm not sure who I am betting on this week. Jordan Mein seems like a decent bet to throw a few dollars at. And I'll probably bet on Jardine just because it's the right thing to do.

Bubba Smith
Sep 27, 2004

Is tonight the greatest moment in Dominick Cruz's life?

No.

The greatest moment in my life was realizing that I didn't need a belt to be happy.


Tickle Me Chelmno posted:

And seriously, someone explain under/over to me. I thought I was betting on it going over 1.5 rounds, and it went 3, which to the best of my knowledge is more than 1.5. Why is the computer machine saying I'm wrong?

You might want to file a complaint since that sounds like a winner. They also may have been sneaky and made it so you were betting on the fight ending in either the second half of round 2 or any time in round 3, instead of going to a decision if that was also an option of the prop bet. But that seems unlikely.

I never had problems betting over/under with fights and they worked exactly as you think they should.

Bubba Smith
Sep 27, 2004

Is tonight the greatest moment in Dominick Cruz's life?

No.

The greatest moment in my life was realizing that I didn't need a belt to be happy.


The only underdog bet I feel strongly about is Terry Etim over Edson Barboza. I don't know why because I don't really know poo poo about Terry Etim, but it feels right.

Quote this when I lose 10 dollars on my strong feelings about a British fighter

Bubba Smith
Sep 27, 2004

Is tonight the greatest moment in Dominick Cruz's life?

No.

The greatest moment in my life was realizing that I didn't need a belt to be happy.


Bundt Cake posted:

quoting in advance

you bet on a skinny twig man

twig man fell down like a tree

Etim held his own in the striking for the first two rounds like I thought he would, but I also thought he was going to have the advantage on the ground and he didn't.

oh well.

Bubba Smith
Sep 27, 2004

Is tonight the greatest moment in Dominick Cruz's life?

No.

The greatest moment in my life was realizing that I didn't need a belt to be happy.


Chimney Sweeps Week posted:

Question: what happens to bets if the Erick Silva decision is reversed?

You're most likely hosed. As am I.

Bubba Smith
Sep 27, 2004

Is tonight the greatest moment in Dominick Cruz's life?

No.

The greatest moment in my life was realizing that I didn't need a belt to be happy.


I also bet on Etim/Barboza going to a Decision and I was a few minutes away from winning that one as well so Barboza you get the double gently caress you

Bubba Smith
Sep 27, 2004

Is tonight the greatest moment in Dominick Cruz's life?

No.

The greatest moment in my life was realizing that I didn't need a belt to be happy.


I'm betting on Maia for sure. no "cred mining" either or whatever, I just think Maia is a cool dude with cool hair. Mayhem had the ugliest striking I've ever seen and he still wasn't that threatened by Bisping. Also Bisping hasn't had a real break from training/MMA since TUF started last fall but I have no idea if that will matter or not.

If I had to parlay I would do Rashad/Sonnen/Maia but I will probably straight bet Rashad, Munoz and Maia.

as far as the prelims go I will likely take George Roop over Cub Swanson and Evan Dunham over Nik Lentz.

Bubba Smith
Sep 27, 2004

Is tonight the greatest moment in Dominick Cruz's life?

No.

The greatest moment in my life was realizing that I didn't need a belt to be happy.


Boregasm posted:

In non-plastic belt betting news, Michael Johnson is +190 despite the very real fact that Shane Roller's striking is putrid and his MMA wrestling isn't developed yet. Do the smart thing and bet all your money on Johnson.

Yeah. I was thinking the same.

The guys I'm running with tomorrow:

Demian Maia +120
George Roop +100 (homer bet)
Michael "the Count" Johnson +190

and then a few parlays with Chael Sonnen and Rashad Evans + other dudes because if either Chael or Rashad lose I will enjoy the fallout, especially if Bisping somehow earns a title shot. That is worth losing a few dollars.

Bubba Smith
Sep 27, 2004

Is tonight the greatest moment in Dominick Cruz's life?

No.

The greatest moment in my life was realizing that I didn't need a belt to be happy.


Boregasm posted:

If you aren't rolling around in cash like Scrooge McDuck you've got nobody to blame but yourself.



we're cool dudes with cool picks.

now I wait for Demian Maia to make me very mad in a few hours.

Bubba Smith
Sep 27, 2004

Is tonight the greatest moment in Dominick Cruz's life?

No.

The greatest moment in my life was realizing that I didn't need a belt to be happy.


fatherdog posted:

I'm really amazed that Roop is somehow an underdog against Swanson

Me too, but the line has been moving to where Roop is finally the favorite (-115 to -110). Roop is by no means a lock, but like Duncan said he's quietly become a pretty decent fighter.

Bubba Smith
Sep 27, 2004

Is tonight the greatest moment in Dominick Cruz's life?

No.

The greatest moment in my life was realizing that I didn't need a belt to be happy.


ForbiddenWonder posted:

mine has roop at -130 *shrug*

I got in on him at even money, but he's been as high as like 180+ on some sites.

Bubba Smith
Sep 27, 2004

Is tonight the greatest moment in Dominick Cruz's life?

No.

The greatest moment in my life was realizing that I didn't need a belt to be happy.


Where is Mike Pierce's jiu jitsu at? I can't find any info about who he trains under and for how long. Koscheck might have the edge in that.

There are no bets on this card I feel comfortable with at all. I'm just going to do a lot of dumb parlays and hope for the best.

Bubba Smith
Sep 27, 2004

Is tonight the greatest moment in Dominick Cruz's life?

No.

The greatest moment in my life was realizing that I didn't need a belt to be happy.


Boregasm posted:

The only decent bet on this card is Figueroa at -130. He had an amazing fight with McDonald on very short notice and embarrassed Reinhardt (such great heights) whereas Bruce Leroy has only looked good in his strength (striking) against Cole Escovedo, who sucks. 6 days notice and cut 20lbs and held his own against a real prospect in McDonald, compared to some dude who's only in the UFC because he's relatively charismatic in a shallow division. Do the smart thing and bet your life savings on Figueroa.

All the other odds on the card are pinpoint. Really well matched card.

This is the only bet I really ended up doing. I can't see why the betting lines are so close for this one. Caceres has just been a joke since he started on TUF, albeit a fun one to watch. Figueroa may have a future in the division, but truthfully I can't even remember his fight with Reinhardt.

Eh, it can't be worse than having faith in Demian Maia.

The major plays I did are Nelson at +140 and Figueroa at -130.

Bubba Smith
Sep 27, 2004

Is tonight the greatest moment in Dominick Cruz's life?

No.

The greatest moment in my life was realizing that I didn't need a belt to be happy.


We totally deserved the Figueroa win, and totally didn't at the same time.

bet on MMA ya'll.

Bubba Smith
Sep 27, 2004

Is tonight the greatest moment in Dominick Cruz's life?

No.

The greatest moment in my life was realizing that I didn't need a belt to be happy.


this might be the first card in a while where an upset doesn't happen (betting wise) unless Nelson or Condit win.

All of my dumb parlays with like five favorites are pretty much a sure thing now.

Bubba Smith
Sep 27, 2004

Is tonight the greatest moment in Dominick Cruz's life?

No.

The greatest moment in my life was realizing that I didn't need a belt to be happy.


Does anyone else think Dave Herman at -125 to Stefan Struve is a decent bet? Jiu-jitsu doesn't work and all. Not on Dave Herman.

Bubba Smith
Sep 27, 2004

Is tonight the greatest moment in Dominick Cruz's life?

No.

The greatest moment in my life was realizing that I didn't need a belt to be happy.


Chimney Sweeps Week posted:

Probably, but I also can't imagine a fight screaming "holy poo poo don't bet on me" any harder than Stefan Struve vs Dave Herman

Yeah, but right now Struve is already starting to move up on most betting sites. I figure if I'm going to bet on Herman I might as well do it now.

Bubba Smith
Sep 27, 2004

Is tonight the greatest moment in Dominick Cruz's life?

No.

The greatest moment in my life was realizing that I didn't need a belt to be happy.


I like Ronny Markes too, even though I feel bad betting against a phoenix wrestler dude. Until those Nova Uniao guys start looking bad against wrestlers I'm gonna keep picking them cause they are earning me money in the meantime. seriously what the gently caress is going on in Brazil.

Other than that I put (not a lot of) money on Ivan Menjivar. Just cause he's a cool dude.

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Bubba Smith
Sep 27, 2004

Is tonight the greatest moment in Dominick Cruz's life?

No.

The greatest moment in my life was realizing that I didn't need a belt to be happy.


Paul Pot posted:

Rampage because I can't picture Bader winning that fight.

Me neither.

Is it really really retarded to bet on Joe Lauzon or only slightly retarded? The answer will result in how much money I put on him.

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