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fatherdog
Feb 16, 2005

by Lowtax


attackmole posted:

How do you guys feel about betting on overdogs? I've always figured if they're over -150 or something it's just not worth the risk.

imo MMA is just too unpredictable to bet on overdogs, but I'm a bad gambler so don't pay me too much mind

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fatherdog
Feb 16, 2005

by Lowtax


If I recall correctly seven units on Lesnar was only one in a long line of shockingly bad picks

fatherdog
Feb 16, 2005

by Lowtax


Great White Hope posted:

Wait, I'm not an MMA junkie (yet), but I thought Shogun was really, absurdly good.

Shogun has had some really spectacular performances and some very lovely ones. Some of the lovely ones were from holes in his game, some of them were due to injuries, some were a mixture of both. Jones is a wrestler with a good top game, which is not a particularly good matchup for him, and he's coming back after being out for a year with a knee injury.

I think having him as the underdog is a little off given the serious experience advantage he has over Jones, but there's a lot of unknowns going into this match and "really, absurdly good" is a serious overstatement regarding Shogun.

EDIT: drat you, manyak

fatherdog
Feb 16, 2005

by Lowtax


I was actually planning on asking the admin if I could arrange a couple people per event to be able to make Custom Title bets with each other - no odds involved, just betting on a fight, whoever wins gets to give the loser a custom title that they have to wear for a month.

But the answer is no, it's not kosher, because even with a low limit if you're bookie-ing with Bodog odds you're essentially acting as a bookie, and that creates legal liabilities because the laws around that in the US are draconian and not well defined, and PSP is currently public-viewable.

fatherdog
Feb 16, 2005

by Lowtax


moww posted:

If a fight goes to a draw or no contest do I lose my money?

jeffersonlives posted:

5.) You bet $100 on either fighter. The fight is a draw, no contest, or one or both of the fighters is scratched before the fight for any reason. You get your $100 back; the bet is a push.

fatherdog
Feb 16, 2005

by Lowtax


Xguard86 posted:

wait, I thought people bet custom titles and stuff all the time?



I perhaps phrased that a little confusingly. Betting custom titles is fine and dandy. What he originally asked was whether he could

quote:

bookie for anyone wanting to put low stakes around a $10 or so limit (Favorites to win $10, Underdogs risk up to $10) with Bodog odds through Paypal

which is not fine and dandy, for the reasons stated.

fatherdog
Feb 16, 2005

by Lowtax


freud mayweather posted:

bisping is gonna do british doubles on jorge until he gets him down and then get a tko stoppage.

This is still the most likely outcome but honestly Rivera has a way better chance than -350; that's not a bad bet imo.

fatherdog
Feb 16, 2005

by Lowtax


Betus.com just released odds for Silva (-180) vs GSP (+150), so I guess if you have strong opinions on that match here's your chance to get in on the ground floor

fatherdog
Feb 16, 2005

by Lowtax


SGRaaize posted:

Betting a few on GPS doesn't seem like a bad idea there, GPS is probably gonna lose, but he shouldn't be that much of an underdog

I feel confident that GPS can always find the correct path to victory

fatherdog
Feb 16, 2005

by Lowtax


Ninja PD posted:

I feel confident that Silva can always find the correct path to victory

He doesn't use satellites, though

fatherdog
Feb 16, 2005

by Lowtax


Bundt Cake posted:

Always bet on genitals you've seen

That has not served me well with Sakurai

fatherdog
Feb 16, 2005

by Lowtax


Not only is Weidman a 2 time D-1 all-american, but in his first appearance at ADCC, he fought Galvao to a near-standstill after only having been training BJJ for less than a year. That was two years ago.

fatherdog
Feb 16, 2005

by Lowtax


I forgot to mention, the last match of Weidman's that I saw was last year in Ring of Combat, when he fought Uriah Hall. Hall's known as a striker with decent takedown defense so everybody was saying that Weidman was gonna have his mma wrestling tested, and Weidman proceeded to knock him retarded with a left hook.

fatherdog
Feb 16, 2005

by Lowtax


It's unclear who would win the wrestling in Dolloway/Munoz, Dolloway has a good guillotine/peruvian necktie combo that could end the fight at any time and Munoz has GnP punching power that could end the fight at any time, so I don't think anybody has a real clear idea of how that one's gonna go.

fatherdog
Feb 16, 2005

by Lowtax


Elmo Oxygen posted:

Fatherdog I need the inside Jersey scoop on Catone vs. Miller. Catone is a huge underdog on MMAPlayground right now and I want to know if I should make a play.

Nick is a better wrestler, Miller is probably better on the ground, I dunno who has better striking and you should know better than to ask me to objectively analyze fights involving Renzo/RABJJ fighters

fatherdog
Feb 16, 2005

by Lowtax


henkman posted:

When was the last time Anthony Johnson wrestled (I'm serious I don't know I thought he pretty much kickboxed even though he has a wrestling background)?

He was blanketing Kevin Burns in their second match up until the headkick, and got the worst of it on the feet for most of both of those matches

fatherdog
Feb 16, 2005

by Lowtax


Wiman is in the interesting position of being a fighter who's good enough that if he was in any division other than 155 he'd be top ten, but he's a lightweight so he's barely top 20.

fatherdog
Feb 16, 2005

by Lowtax


http://www.boxing.com/sportsbooks_a...ng_vs._mma.html

This was an interesting article.

fatherdog
Feb 16, 2005

by Lowtax


MassRayPer posted:

Cowboy Cerrone

quote:

strong takedown defense

what

fatherdog
Feb 16, 2005

by Lowtax


MassRayPer posted:

I'd have to imagine Oliveira's takedowns won't be much better than those recent opponents.

Oliveira took down Nik Lentz and Efrain Escuedero, both of whom were successful college wrestlers, and you think his takedowns "won't be much better" than an undersized Brazilian and an Englishman?

fatherdog
Feb 16, 2005

by Lowtax


MassRayPer posted:

Oliveira is technically an undersized Brazilian. Efrain looked completely lost and terrible in that fight after blowing his weight cut, and I didn't see the Lentz fight. This is why I am posting this, I am not sure if I am overvaluing Cerrone here.

Lentz got his first takedown, then Oliveira got back to his feet and defended three or four more attempts and then took him down near the end of the round. Then in the second he was defending them again when he hit the illegal knee.

It's certainly possible that Cerrone's takedown defense will be too good for him, but I really don't think that his last few matches are any kind of solid evidence for it.

fatherdog
Feb 16, 2005

by Lowtax


Hettes submitted Binky Jones which is actually pretty impressive, but other than that I don't really know anything about the dude.

fatherdog
Feb 16, 2005

by Lowtax


BlindSite posted:

I managed to hedge bets on okami Silva through a couple of private wagers. Really like his chances after spending so much time with chael. Then again he's traditionally a slow starter which might not bode well against Silva

If there's one thing you can take away from Silva/Maia and Silva/Leites, it's that a grappler that fights cautiously on the feet is not at all guaranteed to get blown out early against Silva.

fatherdog
Feb 16, 2005

by Lowtax


If Hughes goes out looking to wrestle he's going to take Diego down and feed him elbows; Diego has pretty much never done poo poo from the bottom to anyone other than a concussed Guida and I doubt he'll do much to Hughes. There is the strong possibility that he'll go out looking to "show off his improved boxing" though, in which case since Diego does have a pretty iron chin his chances of winning another Leonard Garcia special are decent.

fatherdog
Feb 16, 2005

by Lowtax


Bubba Smith posted:

maybe fatherdog could start probating people for putting up bad picks. It would add to the overall enjoyment of this thread. I will start:

bet the farm on boetsch

As noted in the rules thread, if people get real heated about disagreements in picks they can feel free to bet each other and I'll enforce the bets as if they were

fatherdog
Feb 16, 2005

by Lowtax


the aftermath posted:

That was a somewhat questionable decision

fatherdog posted:

Rampage/Hendo
Rampage/Machida
Rampage/Lindland
Rampage/Ninja
Rampage/Busta

Hendo ain't got poo poo on Rampage when it comes to stealing close decisions

fatherdog
Feb 16, 2005

by Lowtax


willie_dee posted:

Really? I can see Diaz putting on one of his "enjoyable human being" punch clinic for 3 rounds and making Penn gas big time.

I realize you're British so it's natural for you to forget this, but takedowns exist

fatherdog
Feb 16, 2005

by Lowtax


Quodio Stotes posted:

Anyone betting on Hendo?

Patriots.

fatherdog
Feb 16, 2005

by Lowtax


Ninja PD posted:

Hector Lombard -1400
Trevor Prangley +700

Is it worth entertaining a bet on Prangley?

Prangley's chin is showing signs of wear and Lombard does hit real hard, but Prangley will also be only the second guy Lombard's ever fought who can wrestle at all, and the first was JT Money.

fatherdog
Feb 16, 2005

by Lowtax


Fastbreak posted:

I really want nothing more on this card than Assuncao to win tonight, but I am surprised at how many people are picking him. Why is he favored so much?

It's Pearson's first fight at feather, and he's a british fighter fighting a good BJJ guy with good takedowns.

I think Pearson it a better fighter than he gets credit for and actually has a pretty good shot at winning but on paper it's not a great match for him.

fatherdog
Feb 16, 2005

by Lowtax


Paul Pot posted:

02-27-2009: the last time maia finished someone

You know who else hadn't finished someone in nearly three years when he fought Bisping? Dan Henderson


quote:

everytime bisping fights we've got these sherdog posters coming out of the woodwork..

Knock this stupid poo poo off.

fatherdog
Feb 16, 2005

by Lowtax


Chimney Sweeps Week posted:

His nickname is "Lula Molusco", which is what Squidward from Spongebob is called in Brazil, and his team are already trying to get him to 205 despite being 6'7"

I always did feel like the main thing missing from the lightheavyweight division was Kendall Grove

fatherdog
Feb 16, 2005

by Lowtax


I'm really amazed that Roop is somehow an underdog against Swanson

fatherdog
Feb 16, 2005

by Lowtax


I don't think Werdum having better wrestling is at all obvious.

fatherdog
Feb 16, 2005

by Lowtax


niethan posted:

Also Roy lost to arlovski

So did Werdum.

quote:

and monson.

Nope.


Street Horrrsing posted:

Roy got stood up out of an active kimura attempt. What that means about him getting knocked out in the next round is up for debate.

Also worth noting - Roy had a week's notice for that fight, Arlovski had a month, due to slug-man Gary Shaw.

fatherdog
Feb 16, 2005

by Lowtax


Ty1990 posted:

Parlaying Kos with Diaz for tomorrow night. Kos is almost a sure thing

Not really.

fatherdog
Feb 16, 2005

by Lowtax


Ty1990 posted:

Well I'm relativley new to following MMA (around UFC 100 I started following) so I reckon most posters here have stronger grip on this than I do...care to explain why? I realize "it's a fight and it only takes one shot", but when I heard this mathchup I expected at least a -300 price stamped on Kos.

It would probably be quicker for you to explain why you think Kos is "almost a sure thing", since there aren't many reasons to actually think that

fatherdog
Feb 16, 2005

by Lowtax


Ty1990 posted:

Kos is as good or better at almost everything.

Actually he's almost definitely a worse technical striker than Pierce (although he probably hits harder), has a worse chin, and I doubt anyone can say who's actually better on the ground.

fatherdog
Feb 16, 2005

by Lowtax


Bundt Cake posted:

there's a good chance this assumption is incorrect

There is, but there's also a good chance it's not, and I'm not sure we've actually seen enough to say either way.

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fatherdog
Feb 16, 2005

by Lowtax


Ty1990 posted:

Solid points and fair enough. That being said I still don't think Pierce wins this fight. Kos by UD I'm thinking.

There's nothing wrong with thinking Kos will win; I was just responding to you calling him a sure thing, which I think there are way too many ifs and unknowns to be even remotely sure of.

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