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manyak
Jan 26, 2006


Great White Hope posted:

Wait, I'm not an MMA junkie (yet), but I thought Shogun was really, absurdly good. Is Jones that good, or is he overhyped because of how easily he won his last fight?

jones has momentum and hype behind him, shogun is very good at striking and jiu jitsu but wrestling (specifically takedown defense) is a huge weakness of his that jones could take advantage of. shoguns also coming off an injury, which is when hes had some of his worst performances in the past. its mostly a case of styles making fights, jones shouldnt be as much of a favorite as he is though imo

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manyak
Jan 26, 2006


always bet against arlovski

manyak
Jan 26, 2006


i know some people are saying not to bet on GSP v. Silva, but does it make a difference if i just had male homoerotic sex with one of the fighters in a hot tub? If not, no biggie.

manyak
Jan 26, 2006


Captain Log posted:

I'm sure this is a curse but I've loudly thought for years that Sot is the next big thing at LW. I would think him a lock in a parlay against Siver.

dont ever think this about someone at the lower weight classes that isnt primarily a wrestler

manyak
Jan 26, 2006


ive been looking everywhere for a prop bet that Anthony Johnson will miss weight

manyak
Jan 26, 2006


Ellenberger at -150 and Machida at whatever the odds are now (-325 last time i checked) are the cool guy bets for ufc 129. bank on it *rollerskates away*

oh yeah and bocek as an underdog is a good bet as well

manyak
Jan 26, 2006


Elmo Oxygen posted:

For what it's worth, MMAPlayground has him at -640 with fake money. -150 is a pretty awesome line.

i saw it at Bodog a week or so ago and got on it quick, its dropped to -205 now it looks like but still. i've trained with Pierson and hes no slouch but I think thats a pretty generous line especially for his second ufc fight (especially when the first was against Matt Riddle)

manyak
Jan 26, 2006


HATE MONDAYS posted:

Ellenberger at -150 and Machida at whatever the odds are now (-325 last time i checked) are the cool guy bets for ufc 129. bank on it *rollerskates away*

manyak
Jan 26, 2006


leben/bader/wiman. do this if youre the cool guy

manyak
Jan 26, 2006


enjoyable human being Martyr posted:

can we get some post event life lesson learning posts please

i bet 50 on wiman with my friend and then went double or nothing on leben so i went even. suffice to say i learned nothing. good day *walks down stairs behind couch*

manyak
Jan 26, 2006


Jones is going to win this weekend so even though the odds are lovely you could make a little on that. I hope this helps someone

manyak
Jan 26, 2006


2 fat 4 my lambo posted:

i too hope someone bets on jones at -500 odds

Good. Im glad that you also want people to have fun and make a tidy sum of profit to the tune of 1/5th of their original investment.

manyak
Jan 26, 2006


ForbiddenWonder posted:

-500 for jones sucks. I got -500 for floyd on saturday.

And he won. Maybe if you had been more confident and bet 5x as much, the "odds" wouldnt have mattered so much.

manyak
Jan 26, 2006


Remora posted:

I think I did this right. Mostly. I didn't factor in the wrestling or jiu-jitsu rules because I don't know fighters that well. If somebody who is more versed can supply that information, I'll go back and edit it in.

Te Huna (59.83%) vs Romero
Takeya (53.08%) vs Escovedo
Assuncao (59.14%) vs Yagin
Ring (60.83%) vs Boetsch
Ferguson (54%) vs Riley
Rothwell (55.13%) vs Hunt
Diaz (51.33%) vs Gomi
Browne (52.33%) vs Broughton
Hughes vs Koscheck (50.2%)
Jones (56.61%) vs Rampage

No idea why it favored red corner like that.


that looks about right to me. though if the percentages are supposed to be their chances of winning then some of them are really bad bets, ie koscheck having supposedly slightly more than 50% chance of winning yet being down as a -500 favorite on the books

manyak
Jan 26, 2006


Do not bet on rampage against jon jones

manyak
Jan 26, 2006


As someone who is literally never wrong about cool and great betting tips , my big UPSET LOCK of the month is Florian beateing aldo. Bet more than you can afford on it

manyak
Jan 26, 2006


MrSmokes posted:

Hail mary bets own and you made some good picks. You have a legit shot imo.

that slip will be voided by the end of tomorrow night

manyak
Jan 26, 2006


Bet a lot of money on hioki for tomorrow, there is a great amount of BUDO to be gained by sacrificing money in honor of true japanese martial artists.

manyak
Jan 26, 2006


Im a professional gambler who has made online billions in the world of MMA gambling, and my professional advice is to bet on Shogun to win this weekend if youre going to bet at all

manyak
Jan 26, 2006


Edit, but you should be cheering for Hendo to win so that way you're happy with either outcome. Its +EV

manyak
Jan 26, 2006


Lots of fun bets on this card if you are a gambling piece of poo poo, I think Matyushenko has a decent chance at +250, Sean Pierson is also going to lose really badly and its stupid that Dong is bumped down to FB fights just because he lost to current WW champion Carlos Condit

manyak
Jan 26, 2006


Tickle Me Chelmno posted:

As an Overeem superfan and avid not-gambler, given everything that's gone on in Overeem's training camp and the fact that Brock is somehow an underdog that seems as smart as gambling can get

This is also how I feel, as well.

I bet a lot of Real Money on Brock at +130 but then chickened out and hedged most of the bet at even odds with my friend. Here's hoping that whoever wins, it is in a funney and bad way

manyak
Jan 26, 2006


We're through the looking glass here people

manyak
Jan 26, 2006


Dont leave us hanging Duncan what is your parlay???

manyak
Jan 26, 2006


Tickle Me Chelmno posted:

Hettes and Cerrone by decision and Gustafsson by stoppage. Also I got a free bet so I put that on Volkmann.

I have Phan and Cerrone by decision (as well as Kim and Fitch by decision) and also I have Matyushenko to win... I may not agree with all of your bets Duncan but I will defend to the death your decision to make them

manyak
Jan 26, 2006


EdRush posted:

bet on mma yall



These things happen in MMA

manyak
Jan 26, 2006


world b lee posted:

Anyone else like Big Country at +120 against Werdum? Seems like a wash on the ground and Werdum's reckless striking could get him in trouble against the more powerful puncher.

Werdums gonna win yall

manyak
Jan 26, 2006


Chimney Sweeps Week posted:

So uhhhh, my site just started offering prop bets on the post event bonuses, and they don't seem to understand how they work at all. They have Edgar vs Bendo listed at +300, then Edgar and Bendo listed separately at like +2500 and +2800

They probably mean Edgar and Bendo winning a SOTN or KO of the night and fight of the night wont count. If not though then that would be some cool way to be a gambling degenerate scum bag

manyak
Jan 26, 2006


A good way to game that would be to bet big on Pettis winning and then hedge that with a bet on Lauzon winning sub or KO of the night if the odds are that crazy

manyak
Jan 26, 2006


Boetsch is gonna upset Okami tomorrow... its the Man Yak Underdog Lock of the week *big CGI Yak graphic comes on screen and puts a lock around a stack of money and drops it in a toilet*

manyak
Jan 26, 2006


ForbiddenWonder posted:



Ah Yes

manyak
Jan 26, 2006


HOTT underdogs for this next UFC

Lavar johnson at +180???? Will he knock out the notoriously chinny Patrick HD Berry the way he knocked out (all the way out of the UFC) berry's friend The mexicutioner?? At these odds hell its worth taking the chance

Alan belcher at +250???? palhares won his last fight which means hes due to do something retarded and lose somehow, plus belcher is the very cool man, palhares is going to lose and youll make big $$$$$ you must belief me

Koscheck at +105??????????? dont believ ethe hype on tiny beard baby hendricks, koscheck is going to win a stupid looking diecision and +105 winnings will be yours if you heed this message

manyak
Jan 26, 2006


heeebrew posted:

What is your credibility?

Ive made million in the field of internet sports gambling. You are only losing out on FREE $$$ by not following my bets

manyak
Jan 26, 2006


Chimney Sweeps Week posted:

If I were to pick one guy between the two to keep as a house pet, it would definitely be Hendricks.

But if i had to pick one guy between the two to be a chia pet, it would be Koscheck

manyak
Jan 26, 2006


Chemtrail Clem posted:

HOTT underdogs for this next UFC

Lavar johnson at +180???? Will he knock out the notoriously chinny Patrick HD Berry the way he knocked out (all the way out of the UFC) berry's friend The mexicutioner?? At these odds hell its worth taking the chance

Alan belcher at +250???? palhares won his last fight which means hes due to do something retarded and lose somehow, plus belcher is the very cool man, palhares is going to lose and youll make big $$$$$ you must belief me

Koscheck at +105??????????? dont believ ethe hype on tiny beard baby hendricks, koscheck is going to win a stupid looking diecision and +105 winnings will be yours if you heed this message

Well I didnt count on the judges making the right decision but I still made internet millions on the other two underdogs, thanks all

manyak
Jan 26, 2006


Beting on Heavyweights is always stupid as hell!!! Its true!! But the closest thing to a good value bet on this card is Lavar over Struve at +110 because struve is due for receiving another hilarious floppy tall man KO. The other okay bet is betting on JDS and just bet 5 times as much as you can afford to make up for the odds because hes definitely going to win

manyak
Jan 26, 2006


Steve Glutenberg posted:

Does anyone have any insanely cool betting tips for a man who no longer wants to go through the tedium of watching tape on everyone ever? Thanks you. Thank.

I havent been paying attention at all lately but uhhh *wikipedias the card and enters the classical Thinker pose* uhhhhhh bet a lot on Maynard , Fisher and uhhh bet against Hioki for the classic betting against the japanese guy safety bet

manyak
Jan 26, 2006


Steve Glutenberg posted:

Thanks, instead of listening to you I bet on Dan Miller, Nick Catone, Rick Story, Ross Peelerson, and Sam Stout

Wow, i thought this was just an intellectual exercise and here you are throwing away real cash money like a sick degenerate. Gambling is a gateway vice

manyak
Jan 26, 2006


This is the first fight i can remember in Okamis career where he is a favorite to win inside the distance, bodog has him at even odds to finish Buddy Roberts and him winning by decision I got at +150. I took Okami by decision just to be safe

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manyak
Jan 26, 2006


niethan posted:

What are the lines on it being a draw?

+3500 i think, become what you were born to be

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