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Here's an article laying out how these revolutions are very much not 'Islamic" ones:quote:In Europe, the popular uprisings in North Africa and the Middle East have been interpreted using a model that is more than 30 years old: the 1979 Islamic revolution in Iran. Commentators have been expecting to see Islamist groups - the Muslim Brotherhood and their local equivalents - either at the head of the movement or lying in wait, ready to seize power. But the discretion of the Muslim Brotherhood has surprised and disconcerted them: where have the Islamists gone? http://www.newstatesman.com/religion/2011/02/egypt-arab-tunisia-islamic I'm bowled over by what's going on in Libya right now.
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Feb 18, 2011 20:12
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I'd caution about being too optimistic about Libya yet. The complete lack of movement in Tripoli is worrisome for the long term future of the revolt.
Patter Song fucked around with this message at 20:21 on Feb 18, 2011 |
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Feb 18, 2011 20:16
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Sivias posted:So basically, Saudi Arabia is hosed. Every single nation around them are going through uprisings. Except Oman and the UAE, and Kuwait (Although the protests in southern Iraq can probably count as Kuwaiti protests to some extent.) No, the problem isn't that Saudi Arabia is hosed, it's that Saudi Arabia will attempt/is attempting to repress protesters in neighboring states, which is a big loving deal in foreign relations. Even if they try and do so under the radar I wouldn't be surprised if it was discovered rather rapidly. Saudi Arabia itself is probably fairly stable at the moment. Also, for any of the arabic speakers http://libya.blog-video.tv/ this is reportedly a Libyan pirate radio from Benghazi after the protesters took effective control over the town. Is it possible to get confirmation on that or what they're saying?
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Feb 18, 2011 20:17
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Shageletic posted:I'm bowled over by what's going on in Libya right now. I'm finding nothing from official sources but Twitter is on fire with reports of "Benghazi has fallen", "east Libya is free!", "army has joined the people", etc. Cull fucked around with this message at 20:22 on Feb 18, 2011 |
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Feb 18, 2011 20:17
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Sivias posted:So basically, Saudi Arabia is hosed. Every single nation around them are going through uprisings. Except Oman and the UAE, and Kuwait (Although the protests in southern Iraq can probably count as Kuwaiti protests to some extent.) Apparently there's small, peaceful protests in Oman: quote:MUSCAT, Oman—About 350 protesters marched through the Omani capital of Muscat Friday afternoon chanting against corruption and demanding to know where their country's oil proceeds have gone. Like Bahrain, also in the Arabian Gulf, the Sultanate of Oman is a monarchy, but its ruler, Sultan Qaboos bin Said al Said, is generally revered here. Still, there is a growing disconnect between the nation's youth and their parents, who remember what Oman was like 40 years ago, before Sultan Qaboos came to power, building schools, encouraging trade, and developing the economy. http://www.slate.com/id/2285656/ But it seems a lot more low key and less ambitious than other protests we've seen. I'd never go as far as to insult the people who've died in Egypt already by saying that the protests were initiated by economics, but the Gulf states and Saudi Arabia (and pointedly, not Oman) have some of the highest per capita income in the world. There doesn't seem to be that desperation fueling the revolts elsewhere that'll tip things over in these countries, but what do I know? EDIT: That's what I heard too, Cull, but it's amazing that the protesters have gained so much territory so quickly from such bastards. EDIT 2: Good point, Patter.
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Feb 18, 2011 20:22
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farraday posted:No, the problem isn't that Saudi Arabia is hosed, it's that Saudi Arabia will attempt/is attempting to repress protesters in neighboring states, which is a big loving deal in foreign relations. Even if they try and do so under the radar I wouldn't be surprised if it was discovered rather rapidly. If I might make a 1789 analogy, Saudi Arabia is playing Austria to Egypt's France: S. Arabia is the bulwark of reaction and the Old Regime and is very intent on suppressing revolution and disruption in its neighbors.
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Feb 18, 2011 20:23
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Farraday, That's interesting. Is there any news on the demonstrations on the west bank? I remember hearing something about Palestinian factions calling for unity. Could this lead to some violence against Israel, or are those calls for peaceful unity?
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Feb 18, 2011 20:24
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Patter Song posted:If I might make a 1789 analogy, Saudi Arabia is playing Austria to Egypt's France: S. Arabia is the bulwark of reaction and the Old Regime and is very intent on suppressing revolution and disruption in its neighbors. It doesn't bear up under great scrutiny, but I think the basic idea is there. You could make a similar comparison between it and the Soviet unions response to reformist movements in Eastern Europe in the middle of last century. While again it doesn't bear much scrutiny the imbalance of forces is much more evident than between Hapsburg Austria and revolutionary France. quote:That's interesting. Is there any news on the demonstrations on the west bank? I remember hearing something about Palestinian factions calling for unity. Could this lead to some violence against Israel, or are those calls for peaceful unity? Anything could lead to violence against Israel given the reactionary nature of their government. The specific situation of Palestinians in the West Bank though is fairly far removed from that then those of even the most autocratic of Arab regimes given the divided political leadership that is in the middle of it's own internecine combat and the military control which Israel imposes over the West Bank to begin with. Palestine is, in my view, very much the rump of whatever happens in the rest of the Arab World here, not the flash point. farraday fucked around with this message at 20:29 on Feb 18, 2011 |
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Feb 18, 2011 20:26
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MrQwerty posted:I fixed it for you because you forgot the main offender of veto abuse The overwhelming majority of American veto abuse that is of any concern is/was the constant defense of Israel and South Africa. The United States is by no means the main offender, Russia and China have us beat many times over when it comes to vetoing in favor of utterly evil policies. 400,000 Darfurians might still be alive were it not for China and the veto, and that's just the tip of the iceberg. There's a kneejerk tendency to assume the United States is the main villain simply because we're the most powerful. "USA = EVIL EMPIRE" is a simplistic equation to a much more complicated world, and leaving other players out of this does a disservice to struggles for global justice.
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Feb 18, 2011 20:26
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Whoa, do the top two posters on this page have the same subject of avatar? That's neat, if so. I'm angry about French Chad mercenaries being brought in to Bahrain. So Bahrain can't end so well, but I desperately hope the revolution keeps going. I hope it never stops. Revolving revolutions!
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Feb 18, 2011 20:31
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Lascivious Sloth posted:If the Saudis get involved on the ground, unless covertly, there will be worldwide backlash -- I doubt that will happen. I was under the impression the Saudis were already peripherally involved - with the Shiite majority in Bahrain, the Al Khalifas have been drawing their security forces mainly from foreign Sunni Muslim recruits, with the Saudis providing a lot of hardware as well. There's been reports from a lot of the clashes that the Bahraini security forces had been speaking Arabic with Saudi and Jordanian accents. That seems to have been the difference so far between Egypt and Bahrain. It's a lot easier to go Tienanmen Square on protesters if you don't see them as countrymen.
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Feb 18, 2011 20:34
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Sivias posted:Farraday, Last I heard the demonstations led to the PA announcing new elections, and then retracting the offer once Hamas refused to have elections in Gaza (this is from the BBC newscast last night).
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Feb 18, 2011 20:57
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I am in Tripoli, Libya right now and seems like things are escalating from "nothing to see here, move along" to "oh poo poo, hope i can catch next flight to not-loving-here" pretty fast. There is only two internet providers here and both of their main services are down or keep going on and off. Right now, i am using a very lovely 3G and seems like the main system is down. Facebook and Twitter is unreachable right now. I keep hearing that expats here taking sudden "vacations" from their jobs and everything. On the other hand, right here everything seems alright around here. Everyone is confused and right now only place out is either from Tripoli airport and Tunusia border so, well, wait and see i guess.
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Feb 18, 2011 21:01
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Stay safe, dude.
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Feb 18, 2011 21:05
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Galewolf posted:I am in Tripoli, Libya right now and seems like things are escalating from "nothing to see here, move along" to "oh poo poo, hope i can catch next flight to not-loving-here" pretty fast. There is only two internet providers here and both of their main services are down or keep going on and off. Right now, i am using a very lovely 3G and seems like the main system is down. Semi facetiously, in Libya what date are we calculating from for the Time-taken-to-depose-your-autocrat race?
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Feb 18, 2011 21:08
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Galewolf, Would you say the internet would be required to maintain peaceful organizing? Are you afraid if the internet doesn't remain stable that the situation could turn severely violent? Best of luck to you.
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Feb 18, 2011 21:09
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farraday posted:Semi facetiously, in Libya what date are we calculating from for the Time-taken-to-depose-your-autocrat race? ~March 3rd or so, right? Something like that? In all seriousness, stay safe, Galewolf. Sounds like the calm before the storm there in Tripoli.
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Feb 18, 2011 21:13
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I'll try to get a date for my open ticket tomorrow because our Libyan guy who handles work visas and stuff sounded very grim about things in Binghazi. People at Tripoli say there are lots of pro-goverment rallies, expat "news" circle has nothing solid but i am safe-ish right now.
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Feb 18, 2011 21:15
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With regards to Saudi Arabia, I'm not surprised that they're taking a more aggressive stance in Bahrain. Remember, when Mubarak faced the possibility of losing that (roughly) $2b in US aid if he didn't step down or implement reforms, the Saudis pretty much said whatver happens, they'll support him and give him the money if the US pulls out. They even got a few other gulf states to pitch in. Seeing how that didn't work, them being more proactive isn't surprising.
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Feb 18, 2011 21:24
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THE HORSES rear end posted:The overwhelming majority of American veto abuse that is of any concern is/was the constant defense of Israel and South Africa. Uh unilaterally supporting two Apartheid states is actually really really bad. I am only saying this because the tone of your post seems to dismiss this as not a big deal. I may be reading you wrong.
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Feb 18, 2011 21:25
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Narmi posted:With regards to Saudi Arabia, I'm not surprised that they're taking a more aggressive stance in Bahrain. Remember, when Mubarak faced the possibility of losing that (roughly) $2b in US aid if he didn't step down or implement reforms, the Saudis pretty much said whatver happens, they'll support him and give him the money if the US pulls out. They even got a few other gulf states to pitch in. Our close personal allies are without question the entrepot of reactionary Sunni autocracy. Oman and Jordan are currently my hopes for peaceful reform. I don't have too much to back it up on but i have the impression both autocratic regimes there are strong enough to recognize their personal authority would not be undermined by more democratic government while not being incredibly inclined toward a crackdown. I could be wrong of course, I didn't see this level of brutality coming from Bahrain either.
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Feb 18, 2011 21:30
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ShababLibya is reporting on Twitter that the Egypt-Libya border has been opened by activists on both sides at one of the border cities, and that anti-Ghadafi protests are ongoing in Tripoli with police standing down.
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Feb 18, 2011 21:54
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farraday posted:Our close personal allies are without question the entrepot of reactionary Sunni autocracy. Honestly, it just shows how utterly foolish and desperate the heads of these countries really are. They bought into the idea that the populace is a bunch of cowardly sheep that will be cowed by a show of force. They never get that when you have nothing to lose, there is nothing left to fear either. What would happen if the House of Saud fell? I imagine at this point that might be on the table if Saudi Arabia is getting into Bahrain's business.
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Feb 18, 2011 21:56
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Fluffy Bunnies posted:Just to back this guy up, and while I'm aware that yahoo isn't a paramount news source, you'd think there'd at least be a 'Middle East In Revolt' or something, bolded, obviously something interesting and world news worthy, right?: I know that this is a few pages back, but if you want to know the average American's mindset, all you have to do is look at the "trending now" section in the upper right hand corner. Those are the top ten searches at that time. Go ahead. Take a look. Make yourself sad and shake your heads at Americans and our "bread and circuses" attitude...
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Feb 18, 2011 22:00
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Mad Doctor Cthulhu posted:What would happen if the House of Saud fell? I imagine at this point that might be on the table if Saudi Arabia is getting into Bahrain's business. This would absolutely change the world as we know it. If there was some overthrow of the government, the world economy would crash in the interim. Gas prices would rocket so fast. Fake edit: talk about too big to fail. Sivias fucked around with this message at 22:13 on Feb 18, 2011 |
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Feb 18, 2011 22:07
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euphronius posted:Uh unilaterally supporting two Apartheid states is actually really really bad. What I took from it is the US has these two specific horrible examples of abuse while Russia and China lay claim to the rest. Sure, the US support of South Africa and Israel was and is atrocious, but it kinda pales in comparison to the things Russia and China have vetoed.
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Feb 18, 2011 22:22
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VikingSkull posted:What I took from it is the US has these two specific horrible examples of abuse while Russia and China lay claim to the rest. Sure, the US support of South Africa and Israel was and is atrocious, but it kinda pales in comparison to the things Russia and China have vetoed. The genocide of the Palestinian people is pretty atrocious. We just vetoed the resolution on condemning the settlements in the West Bank. gently caress you Obama. http://www.undispatch.com/israel-security-council-bahrain http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/bahrain/8334771/Bahrain-royal-family-orders-army-to-turn-on-the-people.html It is no big surprise that Bahrain is ordering the soldiers to fire at civilians. It will be very interesting to see what happens there. A regime change could have major impacts on the 5th Fleet. That is a major foothold for the US on the region.
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Feb 18, 2011 22:31
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Okay, this is not about the revolutions we are following but it's super LOL and we could use a good laugh around here:quote:South Korean activists sought to exploit the suffering, firing balloons carrying thousands of leaflets on waterproof pieces of plastic bearing insulting messages about Kim Jong-Il and his three sons. Beneath the headline, “Republic of Fat,” were photos of Kim Jong-Il quaffing a glass of wine and of the puffed-up faces of Kim Jong-Nam and Kim Jong-Un.   http://www.worldtribune.com/worldtribune/WTARC/2011/ea_nkorea0176_02_18.asp?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter Kim Jong Nam & Kim Jong Un FAAAATAnd then some crazy poo poo from the Yemeni government: quote:Protest bomber arrested in Yemen http://www.sabanews.net/en/news236014.htm "It wasn't us, it was THEM!!! They bombed themselves!!!" A youtube that shows the ambulances in Bahrain being held up; a man is explaining what happened, when shots are fired at those surrounding the ambulances: WARNING: Lots of blood, but no bodies I originally embedded this one, but it was too disturbing, so I removed it and linked it: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KdANNv8R7Dg&feature=player_embedded WATCH THIS VIDEO Who DOESN'T love the smell of a police station burning in the morning? It smells like future victory! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jVM_in6hV6s And from Amira Al Hussaini: quote:@JustAmira Here's her profile pic:  And from Nick Kristoff: quote:@NickKristof And this post from Facebook, very disturbing: quote:This is a screen capture of freezer trucks sent into collect the bodies in Bahrain. I quote what they put -"this proves that the Bahraini army evacuated the bodies into these freezers trucks...70 bodies are missing help us by showing the world how much of monsters they are they killed our brothers,sisters, children where are the human rights from all that have been happening ?"  And then THIS guy, who seems to be interpreting the protests in terms of teabag fortunes: quote:@salehnass I honestly don't know whether or not to delete this guy from the list. He's apparently quite a rabble rouser usually, but lately it's all been teabag posts. He may get with the program and start reporting. Also the teabag posts are amusing me a little.
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Feb 18, 2011 22:35
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Apology posted:And then THIS guy, who seems to be interpreting the protests in terms of teabag fortunes: Coded messages? "The chair is against the wall", "John has a long moustache", all that rot.
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Feb 18, 2011 22:40
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Lascivious Sloth posted:The UN is limited due to the fact that countries like China and Russia have veto powers over any actions. That's right, Russia and China, absolute dictatorial autocracies can veto any proposal for the United Nations to intervene in a countries disputes. Edit: VV: The US is basically the comic book villain of the veto. Rhymenoceros fucked around with this message at 22:52 on Feb 18, 2011 |
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Feb 18, 2011 22:43
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VikingSkull posted:What I took from it is the US has these two specific horrible examples of abuse while Russia and China lay claim to the rest. Sure, the US support of South Africa and Israel was and is atrocious, but it kinda pales in comparison to the things Russia and China have vetoed. That's an interesting stance, but I can not find any evidence to support it (admittedly with a quick look around the internets). If you want to equate Soviet with Russia you might have a point, but I'm not sure where China fits. I'm pretty sure the US is in the lead by far when it comes to horrible misuse of veto power post-cold war though. Sorry for continuing this derail, back to the democratization of the middle east! Last thread I asked Ham if there was any way to contribute from this side of the internet. I have little time to spare, but I do have money. If any of the current protests will keep up the momentum they too will be in need of food and medical supplies... Is there any way to help out financially, or am I just being a naïve dick?
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Feb 18, 2011 22:44
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Potrzebie posted:Last thread I asked Ham if there was any way to contribute from this side of the internet. I have little time to spare, but I do have money. If any of the current protests will keep up the momentum they too will be in need of food and medical supplies... Is there any way to help out financially, or am I just being a naïve dick? afaik there is no way to contribute financially, sorry.  I suppose you could donate to Amnesty International or something, or you could wait until the protests are over, when I'm sure a bunch of charities will begin to help with rebuilding what's been damaged or destroyed.
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Feb 18, 2011 22:48
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Apology posted:afaik there is no way to contribute financially, sorry. Donating to Amnesty or MSF/Doctors Without Borders is always a good thing. It might not go to this particular cause, but it will always go to a good cause. I don't think these protesters are short on medical treatment or food. They just need a government that doesn't shoot them.
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Feb 18, 2011 22:53
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DevNull posted:The genocide of the Palestinian people is pretty atrocious. We just vetoed the resolution on condemning the settlements in the West Bank. gently caress you Obama. Reading this just made me angrier and angrier. The sheer hypocrisy and stupidity of that ambassador's statement sickens me. They reject the settlements in the strongest terms but won't call them illegal? They claim to have invested the most in Israeli-Palestinian peace, but have nothing to show for it and refuse to try anything new. But hey, stay the course, right? e: As far as UNSC vetoes, this graph (from wiki) shows just how much the fiver permanent members use it:  Click here for the full 787x369 image. Since 2000 ther have been 15 vetoes between China, France, Britain, the US and Russia; the US was responsible for 10 of those, Russia 3 and China 2. Narmi fucked around with this message at 23:38 on Feb 18, 2011 |
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Feb 18, 2011 23:32
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I'm sure this veto will endear us to the new Arab democracies....
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Feb 18, 2011 23:37
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Narmi posted:Reading this just made me angrier and angrier. The sheer hypocrisy and stupidity of that ambassador's statement sickens me. They reject the settlements in the strongest terms but won't call them illegal? They claim to have invested the most in Israeli-Palestinian peace, but have nothing to show for it and refuse to try anything new. Don't worry, we are still taking a hard stance against them in other aspects... http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703321004575427272550050504.html Oh, wait. No, we are training for war with them. Well, maybe our Republican friends will be a bit harder on Israel with this whole small government and staying out of foreign affairs. http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0211/49750.html Welp, guess we are screwed.
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Feb 18, 2011 23:39
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Potrzebie posted:but I'm not sure where China fits. China's support for its friends Sudan and Burma, two of the worst regimes on the planet.
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Feb 18, 2011 23:40
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Welp, following twitter through google live feed and seems like there is some action going on around Tripoli. Though at this point it is impossible to tell the difference between facts and pure bullshit. I'll try to sleep now and hope that no one will decide to burn the house i am living with other expats. I am not sure what to do at this point, if you are working as an expat in Libya you should notify the government like 2 weeks ago to get an "exit visa". Unless you don't have that visa you can't go out unless deported for other reasons. I still have a tourist visa and exit visa, though it is invalid since i missed the exit date because of work (i have to pay 500 dinars fine but still leave the country, hopefully). Lets see what happens in the morning, thanks for your concern guys.
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Feb 18, 2011 23:57
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Judging from the various live blogs it seems like the cities in the East of Libya aren't under government control anymore, and security forces have fled from them.
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Feb 19, 2011 00:16
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Apology posted:A youtube that shows the ambulances in Bahrain being held up; a man is explaining what happened, when shots are fired at those surrounding the ambulances: A clip with this guy was just shown on AJE. He was dragging a guy with a beaten in face bleeding heavily. Guess that explains the massive amounts of blood on his shirt. Also, WTF is up with arresting ambulance personell (when not shooting at them)? That is just pure evil, and obviously will only enrage the people more.
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