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Sivias posted:The US is setting up a military base in northern Australia. Turkey has deployed forces along the Syrian boarder. Jordan and neighboring countries are participating in large scale military games. Russia and Iran are strategically positioning warships in the Mediterranean and Strait of Hormuz, respectively. Except the last 60 years have consisted of large numbers of regional and proxy conflicts that didn't escalate because the big powers have no real reason to get into a shooting war with each other and will pretty much bend over backwards (Soviet and US airmen shooting at each other over Korea but we pretend not) in order to prevent reality getting to that state of affairs.
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# ? Sep 27, 2023 21:51 |
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Alchenar posted:As for China, their position is extremely simple: they'll never support anything in the UN which supports the idea of intervention in a country's internal politics, nor of its right to territorial integrity. Yeah, last thing China wants is to give people pause regarding their
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keyframe posted:The alternative is shooting it down with a rocket and that would not fly with the "oops sorry we could not ID the craft as a Turkish, it was short range AA fire from the ground that shot it down" excuse Syria gave. This is pretty much flat wrong. Just because it was reportedly not shot down with AA or AAA fire, but a missile, doesn't mean they had properly identified where the aircraft is from. You can lock a missile onto all manners of aircraft without knowing what they are, how big they are, where they're from, whether or not they're armed, etc. Even if they IFF'd the aircraft and it had a response, that means virtually nothing unless the response is listed on civil flight plans for the day or it matches the codes designated for friendly aircraft. This doesn't mean the Syrians couldn't have known it was Turkish, but assuming that missile = they knew what it was is just wrong. edit: also rockets != missiles
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mlmp08 posted:This is pretty much flat wrong. Just because it was reportedly not shot down with AA or AAA fire, but a missile, doesn't mean they had properly identified where the aircraft is from. You can lock a missile onto all manners of aircraft without knowing what they are, how big they are, where they're from, whether or not they're armed, etc. Yea except they said the flight path of the plane was no secret and Syria should have had it ID'd on their radars from the origin. I am admittedly no expert on flight/radar systems but that is what the Turkish newspapers are saying.
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Yeah, it's still possible they had it ID'd the whole time, I'm just reiterating that using a SAM in no way makes it more likely they had ID'd it than if it were shot by AA. In fact, using AA would make it even more likely they'd ID'd the aircraft through visual or electro-optical means.
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Medieval Medic posted:I am curious, everyone is talking about Russia either supporting Assad to the end or pulling out with their tails between their legs, but isn't it more likely they would just pay off some of Assad's cronies for an assasination if things got really out of hand, before any other country got involved? i'm not sure how likely it is that assad's death would end the war, though, unless 1) his brother is loving got too, and 2) the remnants of the regime are somehow magically compelled to negotiate/flee instead of scared shitless and driven to even more agressive behavior besides, i don't think that at this point the rebels are willing to settle for anything less than dismantling the entire Assadite system, even if the new guys in charge bring them Bashar's neck on a silver platter SexyBlindfold fucked around with this message at 02:11 on Jul 14, 2012 |
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Brown Moses posted:NOW Lebanon has an exclusive eye witness report from Treimsa which seems to indicate cluster munitions were used
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mlmp08 posted:Yeah, it's still possible they had it ID'd the whole time, I'm just reiterating that using a SAM in no way makes it more likely they had ID'd it than if it were shot by AA. In fact, using AA would make it even more likely they'd ID'd the aircraft through visual or electro-optical means. Yea I am not saying you are wrong or anything. Like I said my only knowledge on this comes from reading the Turkish newspapers.
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Brown Moses posted:
You're avatar looks terrifying in that specific context. With regards to the F-4 shoot down, I find it somewhat amusing that Robert Ballard had a part in it's recovery. He's like an international man of finding-things-in-water. http://www.courant.com/news/connecticut/hc-bob-ballard-downed-jet-0713-20120712,0,4192948.story article posted:He said he was on vacation in Jackson Hole, Wyo., when he received a call from Francis J. Ricciardone, the U.S. ambassador to Turkey, asking for his help finding the lost aircraft and the bodies of the pilots, Capt. Gokhan Ertan and Lt. Hasan Huseyin Aksoy.
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Some weeks ago there was a NYT story on the transfer of weapons at the Turkey - Syria border, mentioning how Saudis and the Qataris were sending money to buy them and how US intelligence agents were helping the distribution. Now in their latest report they talk to a bunch of Syrian commanders and the guys basically tell them there's no money and guns coming to them:excerpt posted:His fighters, he said, needed money and weapons. But they were not getting the support promised from the donors and opposition leaders outside Syria.
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Two Americans were kidnapped in Sinai on Friday in the latest tourist kidnapping by Bedouins since the revolution. A bunch of Chinese employees of a cement factory were kidnapped and then released several months ago.quote:The US Embassy in Cairo announced that it was in close touch with Egyptian authorities about the case of two American tourists and their Egyptian tour guide were kidnapped in Nikhil, middle Sinai, on Friday afternoon.
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Valley Troll posted:Two Americans were kidnapped in Sinai on Friday in the latest tourist kidnapping by Bedouins since the revolution. A bunch of Chinese employees of a cement factory were kidnapped and then released several months ago. For what it's worth, this is just the most recent kidnapping of foreigners in south Sinai, but it's the first in a while. There were a number of tourists kidnapped in the vicinity of St. Catherine's monastery in Feb. and March of this year, and all were released unharmed within hours of their kidnappings. The Bedouin unrest isn't anything new. It was ever present during Mubarak's reign with the occasional armed standoff or shoot out with security forces, but it's escalated since the revolution. I think it's because a lot of SCAF's attention has been focused on Cairo and the Delta, so a lot of security forces that kept the peace oppressed the Bedouin with even more of an iron fist to other areas. A lot of it stems from how the Bedouin were treated in a vein similar to how the US has treated Native Americans: keep them confined to lovely land and disenfranchise them. There's also the matter of all the Bedouins swept up in the Sinai bombings of 2004-2006. The Tarabin are the tribe most present within some areas that are really critical to Egypt's tourism industry, notably the north-south highway between Dahab and Sharm el-Sheikh. They are poor and HEAVILY rely on tourists to supplement their meager incomes. To take hostages is a big statement- it basically tells the government that they're willing to gently caress with both their livelihood as well as one of the economy's pillars in order to make a point: don't neglect us like you did under Mubarak. Due to the length in time passed since the last incident (March 2012) I think this kidnapping is less of a protest action and more of a one-off incident. I don't think Bedouin unrest in S. Sinai ranks high on the government's "to address" list at the moment. I think the tourists will be released unharmed soon. Now, if they had been kidnapped in El Arish in North Sinai, I think it'd be a much worse story.
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How not to handle UXO https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Rv2HeMhkGQ
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suboptimal posted:
Because of the Takfiris?
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That doesn't even make sense, why would anyone go on vacation in Egypt right now? Sivias posted:How's the old saying go? Yeah, watch Paris 1919, even the dudes drafting the treaty knew that they hosed everything up. It's stuff like the Arab spring that no one ever sees coming. Ghetto Prince fucked around with this message at 13:16 on Jul 14, 2012 |
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Storyful has put together a bit on the clusterbomb story, and The Cluster Munition Coalition has also been writing about it. A witness interview from the recent massacre also points towards the use of cluster bombs. so it appears they've been deployed against civilians. I'm on the search for more evidence of that at the moment.
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Jesus Christ i've watched so many hosed up videos in this thread but i think the latest fad of "Syrians picking up explosive ordinance like stones" is creeping me out. Stop doing that! 100 year old ordinance blows up when touched, those things just fell from the sky!
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Mans posted:Jesus Christ i've watched so many hosed up videos in this thread but i think the latest fad of "Syrians picking up explosive ordinance like stones" is creeping me out. In their defense, those things did just fall from the sky and not explode; throwing it couldn't do much more. Explosives can become unstable over time and become more deadly.
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Frankly I'm always more shocked when I see kids handling just about anything that could kill or maim them or someone nearby. Not only is it dangerous, but it's really sad to think what the children must think life on this planet is like ![]() ![]()
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Torpor posted:In their defense, those things did just fall from the sky and not explode; throwing it couldn't do much more. Explosives can become unstable over time and become more deadly.
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http://www.maannews.net/eng/ViewDetails.aspx?ID=504181 posted:Four Palestinian refugees were killed and several others were injured after Syrian security forces opened fire at demonstrators in Al-Yarmouk refugee camp on Friday, sources said. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EW4YMgStdSc
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To change geographic locations a bit, some Mali news. The Islamists in the area they control overplayed their hand a bit at least in one city. Nothing game changing or anything, but nothing has been said about Mali in a while. http://www.voanews.com/content/northern-mali-residents-rise-up-against-islamists/1404464.html quote:Residents of Goundam, in Mali's Timbuktu region, rose up against the armed group Ansar Dine on Friday after the group carried out beatings in its bid to impose strict Islamic law. Goundam residents said people began demonstrating after the group whipped a woman holding an infant.
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Brown Moses posted:How not to handle UXO Oh my god, this is like watching a scene in a horror movie where you're just waiting for something to jump out of nowhere and kill one of the characters. I actually winced when he nonchalantly tossed the shell back into the gravel pile.
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Spakstik posted:Oh my god, this is like watching a scene in a horror movie where you're just waiting for something to jump out of nowhere and kill one of the characters. I actually winced when he nonchalantly tossed the shell back into the gravel pile. Wow. I was actually kind of turning my head hoping to avoid seeing those guys and that loving kid right behind them explode. Just wanted to scream "stop doing that poo poo especially around kids" to that guy.
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Via Brown Moses's twitter feed, http://twitter.com/#!/Brown_Moses/status/224201972901871617 (click for video) Photos from a disarmed car bomb in Syria. ![]() ![]() ![]()
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Rent-A-Cop posted:Yeah this is wrong. You really shouldn't play with UXO because there's no telling why it failed to explode. Hell, some munitions actually employ a time-delay or motion-activated anti-tamper trigger just to prevent their removal from the battlefield. Others may have an automatic self-destruct timer, and you don't want to be around when it gets to zero. Not to mention the purely mechanical failures that can happen inside a bomb. They can drop several thousand feet and not detonate, but all it takes to make a boom is enough of a bump to free a single stuck mechanism. This. No bomb is safe until has been deactivated. Just because it didn't explode when it was supposed doesn't mean it can't explode
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http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/15/world/middleeast/syrian-pilots-defection-signals-trouble-for-government.html?pagewanted=2&ref=middleeast Very interesting interview with a defected pilot. Lots of double standards between Sunni and Alawi officers. quote:For the pilots, squadron life could be riven by unequal standards and simmering distrust. Though Alawites are a minority, they make up roughly two-thirds of the pilots, another pilot who defected said. Captain Trad said Alawite officers had higher social standing, greater professional latitude and more privileges than their Sunni colleagues: a climate that fueled resentment.
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Xandu posted:Via Brown Moses's twitter feed, I'm really interested in doing a post about that, can you provide the original source for the photos, and any translation of that text?
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It's from their facebook page. https://www.facebook.com/media/set/?set=a.492905014054817.110715.485209911490994&type=1 I can do a real translation later, but the first photo is an instruction on how to use it and the other two are just the front side of a detonator (I think the word on the front is receiver but I know nothing about explosives) edit: I also think they might be jihadists, based on the Haroun al-Rashid name and the graphics, which are almost identical to the ones Kataib Ahrar al-Sham uses. Xandu fucked around with this message at 19:50 on Jul 14, 2012 |
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So are they disarming the bomb in the video, or setting it? [edit] I see they are disarming it, who do they claim set it? Assad's forces?
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No, they definitely disarm it, although they do put it in another car at the end, which raises some questions about what they're planning on doing with it.
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I'll put together a post about it a bit later, seems significant.
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quote:[edit] I see they are disarming it, who do they claim set it? Assad's forces? Ah, the beginning of the video says The Haroun al-Rashid Brigade, belongong to the Brigade of al-Habib al-Mustafa, disarmed an explosive device that Assad's forces put in a Saba (brand name) car near a big mosque in Jobar to explode near protesters. Xandu fucked around with this message at 20:02 on Jul 14, 2012 |
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Xandu posted:No, they definitely disarm it, although they do put it in another car at the end, which raises some questions about what they're planning on doing with it. They don't put the bomb in the other car, just the gas tank that the bomb was supposed to ignite. And yeah the text on the back of the detonator is nothing interesting, but what does مستقبل ١٣ mean in this context? I just don't get it.
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Amused to Death posted:To change geographic locations a bit, some Mali news. The Islamists in the area they control overplayed their hand a bit at least in one city. Nothing game changing or anything, but nothing has been said about Mali in a while. Speaking of Mali, I read this is in the Guardian. http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/jul/13/islamists-mali-threat-europe quote:On Thursday, Islamists consolidated their control, driving Tuareg rebels from their last stronghold in the town of Ansogo, leaving the entire north of Mali, including Gao – the main base of the Malian army – in Islamist hands. François Hollande : quote:"For an intervention in the framework of the African Union and the United Nations to take place, it's up to Africans to determine the moment and the force," Hollande said during a televised interview on Bastille Day. http://www.news24.com/Africa/News/Africa-must-decide-on-Mali-Hollande-20120714 Kurtofan fucked around with this message at 21:17 on Jul 14, 2012 |
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Svartvit posted:They don't put the bomb in the other car, just the gas tank that the bomb was supposed to ignite. And yeah the text on the back of the detonator is nothing interesting, but what does مستقبل ١٣ mean in this context? I just don't get it. It's a wireless receiver, so when the signal is sent to it, it tells the bomb to go off.
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Yeah, but the bomb is the green pack that looks like a battery of fireworks. Does مستقبل mean reciever? *edit: Made an effort *sigh* and checked Wehr and yes it does.
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Wait, so is Mali some kind of horrible four-way mess now? Ugh.
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Xandu posted:
couldn't haroun al-rashid be interpreted as a callback to arabic greatness rather than sunni supremacy though? i mean it doesn't sound a lot more jihadist than naming your brigade after Ummar, and i'm pretty sure the Farooq Battalion isn't jihadist and the graphics are along the lines of the FSA logo. i mean there's only so many iterations of the rifle, flacon and flag colors you can pull off
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# ? Sep 27, 2023 21:51 |
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Fangz posted:Wait, so is Mali some kind of horrible four-way mess now? Ugh. quote:The troops at Kati started to plan a march to protest how the government had handled the rebellion. At around 1 p.m. on March 21, Minister of Defense Gen. Sadio Gassama came to the Kati barracks to ask them to call it off.
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