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TheBalor posted:Honestly, though, if elections are held within two months, won't the Brotherhood still be in a pretty good position? They had a fairly commanding lead last time. The MB's popularity has gone down the drain ever since. They'd still be a powerful entity but the past year and Morsi caving will irreparably harm them. Also, back then they had the advantage of Morsi being the only Islamic candidate, thus garnering most of that vote. Had Abu Ismail (salafist candidate) been allowed to run, it would have considerably lowered their chances (there's conspiracy theories about their involvement with the military in barring that candidate from running in exchange for tolerating Ahmed Shafiq running). If elections are held within 2 months, the 2nd runner up in the past election, Hamdein Sabbahi, is a seemingly socialist candidate who is heavily associated with the revolution, very popular with the poor working classes and most likely the only candidate to have consensus among the people currently demonstrating against Morsi. The army by now knows it isn't feasible to run the country directly and that a Mubarak-era figure such as Shafiq will eventually face the full islamist/liberal within hours. This is why I think they'd indirectly back someone such as Sabbahi. Ham fucked around with this message at 02:37 on Jul 3, 2013 |
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Jul 3, 2013 02:33
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TheBalor posted:Honestly, though, if elections are held within two months, won't the Brotherhood still be in a pretty good position? They had a fairly commanding lead last time. It wasn't that commanding, and the opposition was Shafiq, who is even worse. No telling how a new election would go. Edit: Looking back, Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh and Hamdeen Sabahi both fared really well in the 1st round, and could present a new opposition in the next elections final round. Anyone have any info on either of these guys and their parties? Volkerball fucked around with this message at 02:40 on Jul 3, 2013 |
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Jul 3, 2013 02:36
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az jan jananam posted:There is truth to what Morsi is saying when he says that his government is legitimate, and that legitimacy is a key issue here. He was elected by a majority of Egyptians in the fairest elections that Egypt has had in decades; the fact that he is grossly incompetent doesn't change that. If this coup happens it sets a rather poor precedent where Islamists get the message that gaining and retaining power through democratic institutions isn't actually a viable option, and that it might be better to simply return to the guerrilla/terrorism campaign of the 80s/90s. Which is that I bet they'll do if the military/dakhiliyya embark on a Brotherhood repression campaign. Are there any separate nuances to the arabic word translated as legitimacy, or does it mean pretty much exactly the same as in english?
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Jul 3, 2013 02:37
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Ham posted:Which is why the obvious way out for the brotherhood is through compromise with the protests and Morsi calling for immediate presidential elections. Which is probably still what they're aiming for, but using the time to raise the stakes against the military to get a more favorable negotiation position. I don't often predict direct American involvement in a ME country after the debacle of Iraq, but the US will intervene if Egypt looks like its headed for anarchy. The horror is Syria is bad enough, but Egypt descending into a civil war would be catastrophic.
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Jul 3, 2013 02:39
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Whatever the military is planning has to be weight against the example of Syria, though. Pushing the MB too far might result in a civil war, and even if the MB has no way to win, they could wreck the country.
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Jul 3, 2013 02:39
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I somehow wish Morsi would have read the biographies of Louis XVI and Robespierre and realized how fast one can go from legitimate head of state to legitimate head.
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Jul 3, 2013 02:40
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I refuse to believe the MB is or will consciously turn this situation into a civil war, they can't be that dumb. I'll believe they're just attempting to gain a better position to negotiate with the military regarding the post-Morsi situation until we hear about the mass arrests of MB leadership personell and Morsi's "heart attack".
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Jul 3, 2013 02:43
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Ham posted:I refuse to believe the MB is or will consciously turn this situation into a civil war, they can't be that dumb. I'll believe they're just attempting to gain a better position to negotiate with the military regarding the post-Morsi situation until we hear about the mass arrests of MB leadership personell and Morsi's "heart attack". I don't know, I can't imagine that after years of repression and then finally getting their man in power, they're just going to stand around and let the military conduct a putsch.
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Jul 3, 2013 02:45
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Ham posted:I refuse to believe the MB is or will consciously turn this situation into a civil war, they can't be that dumb. I'll believe they're just attempting to gain a better position to negotiate with the military regarding the post-Morsi situation until we hear about the mass arrests of MB leadership personell and Morsi's "heart attack". I could be wrong about this, but some of their statements almost seem like they are disassociating themselves with Morsi. Almost seems like damage control. I agree that they might be cutting their losses and trying to preserve their influence. Starting a civil war would pretty much end their legitimacy in Egypt.
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Jul 3, 2013 02:46
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Well, who was firing those automatic weapons in that police video a few posts back? I can't see the military firing on the crowd, and if it was the police, then it seems the police are splintering. If it's the MB, then there's problems coming tomorrow.
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Jul 3, 2013 02:50
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Dr. Tough posted:I don't know, I can't imagine that after years of repression and then finally getting their man in power, they're just going to stand around and let the military conduct a putsch. The thing is, it's not really a military coup. The MB brought this upon themselves. They tried reviving Mubarak's National Democratic Party and ultimately failed, we're just seeing the aftermath of that now. With the advent of 30/6 protests their rule was no longer sustainable, right now they're either trying to salvage as much as they can or they are unable to admit their failure and are attempting to fight the protests and the army's attempts to prevent the situation from turning into a street war between pro- and anti-MB demonstrators. This is not to say the army isn't to blame for the current predicament. They enabled the MB and are just stepping in now to contain the situation they started themselves. (Initial constitutional referendum after 25 Jan, dissolution of parliament on Morsi's inauguration). Ham fucked around with this message at 02:56 on Jul 3, 2013 |
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Jul 3, 2013 02:53
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Volkerball posted:It wasn't that commanding, and the opposition was Shafiq, who is even worse. No telling how a new election would go. From what I recall of Democracy Now's Egyptian correspondent's commentary, both were leftists who split the vote between themselves. One is closer to socialist, the other more a liberal (don't remember which was which). Of course that they split the left's vote was lamented to a certain extent on the aforementioned radio program.
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Jul 3, 2013 02:56
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Schlieren posted:From what I recall of Democracy Now's Egyptian correspondent's commentary, both were leftists who split the vote between themselves. One is closer to socialist, the other more a liberal (don't remember which was which). Of course that they split the left's vote was lamented to a certain extent on the aforementioned radio program. Well combined, they wouldn't have been in the 9 million votes range, as compared to 5 million for Morsi and Shafiq. Who knows what would've happened in the final round, but that's an interesting thing to keep tabs on. Maybe after seeing what Morsi has done, they'll organize a legitimate leftist opposition instead of falling to infighting.
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Jul 3, 2013 03:00
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Coriolis posted:Man, from the ground that thing looks like an alien spaceship: Anyone know what they are chanting at the end?
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Jul 3, 2013 03:20
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This ought to calm things down: quote:@Ikhwanweb: Reports of imminent massacre awaiting supporters of Prez #Morsi sitting-in in #Rabaa Adawya Sq at dawn, planned by police using armed thugs
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Jul 3, 2013 03:34
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Zeroisanumber posted:I don't often predict direct American involvement in a ME country after the debacle of Iraq, but the US will intervene if Egypt looks like its headed for anarchy. The horror is Syria is bad enough, but Egypt descending into a civil war would be catastrophic. Uh, no we wouldn't. It would be pretty funny though. Abrams and Apaches VS Abrams and Apaches! So is there any kind of formal impeachment process in Egypt? Morsi was legitimately elected, I don't see why the people can't pursue a legitimate method to remove him from power before his term is over unless no such mechanism exists. It's not like in America we are stuck with a president for 4 years if he goes off the deep end, that's what the impeachment process is all about.
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Jul 3, 2013 04:13
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Charliegrs posted:Uh, no we wouldn't. It would be pretty funny though. Abrams and Apaches VS Abrams and Apaches! Any impeachment procedures would have to go through the parliament, which is Brotherhood controlled. It's not just Morsi-people are sick of the entire MB government.
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Jul 3, 2013 04:44
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Zeroisanumber posted:I don't often predict direct American involvement in a ME country after the debacle of Iraq, but the US will intervene if Egypt looks like its headed for anarchy. The horror is Syria is bad enough, but Egypt descending into a civil war would be catastrophic. This is a laughable idea given the US reaction in Syria. Also after Iraq/Afganistan the appetite for direct foreign misadventures is also noticeably less.
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Jul 3, 2013 04:49
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etalian posted:This is a laughable idea given the US reaction in Syria. Also after Iraq/Afganistan the appetite for direct foreign misadventures is also noticeably less. The only intervention I could see would be keeping the Suez Canal open while the rest of the country burns, but even that is iffy.
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Jul 3, 2013 04:50
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So let me make sure I've got this all straight. The general populace is unhappy with Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood, some for long-standing ideological issues and the rest for their poor management of the economy. They could demand Morsi step down, but that requires the Parliament's approval, which is also MB controlled. That said, Morsi hasn't committed any real crimes beyond being incompetent and pissing off the opposition with the constitutional referendum. They can't vote out Morsi until 2016, and the legislature mid-terms aren't until 2018, like in the US. So if Morsi is forced out, the rule of law and basic fundamentals of democracy are damaged - letting people call "do-over" on an election because they aren't happy how it went is a dangerous precedent. If Morsi remains president, tensions increase between rival political groups, and you've got more and more violent street battles, which ALSO isn't good for the rule of law and basic fundamentals of democracy. And finally if the military steps in to either install a leader, broker some sort of deal, or just remind everybody that they've got bigger guns goddamn it, so play nice... you damage the rule of law and basic fundamentals of democracy. Still, the military is hoping they can force everybody to settle down just by putting the ultimatum out there, even if they don't really want to follow through with it. So far, it hasn't worked, with both sides saying that the military is clearly behind them. That's one hell of a pickle they've got there in Egypt, if I'm understanding it right.
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Jul 3, 2013 05:05
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It's the court who does impeachments in Egypt.
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Jul 3, 2013 05:07
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Jonked posted:
Is this really against democracy? Both the US and French constitutions stated the people could and should rise up against a tyrannical leader.
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Jul 3, 2013 05:13
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The people should exactly what will benefit them the most.
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Jul 3, 2013 05:13
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ThePutty posted:Is this really against democracy? Both the US and French constitutions stated the people could and should rise up against a tyrannical leader. Not when "Clusterfuck that ends in some sort of dictatorship" is such a fine pony.
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Jul 3, 2013 05:16
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Jonked posted:So if Morsi is forced out, the rule of law and basic fundamentals of democracy are damaged The fundamental principles of democracy absolutely allow and encourage such a scenario if the leadership isn't representing the will of the people. I don't know what Egypt's military oath is like, but in the US it wouldn't automatically be out of line for the military to participate in such a thing either.
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Jul 3, 2013 05:17
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etalian posted:This is a laughable idea given the US reaction in Syria. Also after Iraq/Afganistan the appetite for direct foreign misadventures is also noticeably less. Syria is small potatoes compared to Egypt. Egypt is one of the legs of the tripod that the US bases its ME policy on and a collapse into anarchy would be catastrophic. I'm not predicting an invasion, but a military intervention would be likely.
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Jul 3, 2013 05:24
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Zeroisanumber posted:Syria is small potatoes compared to Egypt. Egypt is one of the legs of the tripod that the US bases its ME policy on and a collapse into anarchy would be catastrophic. I'm not predicting an invasion, but a military intervention would be likely. Egypt's collapse into anarchy isn't at all likely, though.
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Jul 3, 2013 05:26
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Zeroisanumber posted:Syria is small potatoes compared to Egypt. Egypt is one of the legs of the tripod that the US bases its ME policy on and a collapse into anarchy would be catastrophic. I'm not predicting an invasion, but a military intervention would be likely. So somehow dropping a pile of bombs on the military would help the whole reduce anarchy goal?
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Jul 3, 2013 05:27
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etalian posted:So somehow dropping a pile of bombs on the military would help the whole reduce anarchy goal? More likely the goal would be to help the military put down an insurgency.
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Jul 3, 2013 05:33
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Zeroisanumber posted:Syria is small potatoes compared to Egypt. Egypt is one of the legs of the tripod that the US bases its ME policy on and a collapse into anarchy would be catastrophic. I'm not predicting an invasion, but a military intervention would be likely. So we would basically be funding both sides of that war?
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Jul 3, 2013 05:39
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Can anyone recall what time exactly the military's deadline is? I keep seeing 5 pm, but mostly in conjunction with Tamarod's insistence that Morsi resign by that time July 2.
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Jul 3, 2013 05:46
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suboptimal posted:Can anyone recall what time exactly the military's deadline is? I keep seeing 5 pm, but mostly in conjunction with Tamarod's insistence that Morsi resign by that time July 2. It was 10AM EST i think. (4 PM in Egypt?) Edit: Put PM instead of AM. Silky Thighs fucked around with this message at 05:53 on Jul 3, 2013 |
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Jul 3, 2013 05:48
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Fallom posted:Egypt's collapse into anarchy isn't at all likely, though. Yeah, worst case scenario is a corrupt but probably not terribly murderous military coup that would probably last for a few years, and would at least be better than civil war between Islamists and Secularists/Christians. But I doubt very much that will happen.
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Jul 3, 2013 05:57
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Ham posted:The thing is, it's not really a military coup. The MB brought this upon themselves. They tried reviving Mubarak's National Democratic Party and ultimately failed, we're just seeing the aftermath of that now. With the advent of 30/6 protests their rule was no longer sustainable, right now they're either trying to salvage as much as they can or they are unable to admit their failure and are attempting to fight the protests and the army's attempts to prevent the situation from turning into a street war between pro- and anti-MB demonstrators. I don't see how any of that makes this not a military coup? The military is removing a democratically elected government by force barely a year after elections. Just because there are popular protests (which may or may not have the majority of Egyptian society behind them) does not make this any less of a military coup.
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Jul 3, 2013 06:01
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Charliegrs posted:So we would basically be funding both sides of that war? Lockheed Martin and Raytheon cry tears of joy.
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Jul 3, 2013 06:01
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a bad enough dude posted:I don't see how any of that makes this not a military coup? The military is removing a democratically elected government by force barely a year after elections. Just because there are popular protests (which may or may not have the majority of Egyptian society behind them) does not make this any less of a military coup. The distinction is that the military is doing this not of their own accord, but in response to the demands of the people. I guess it's still technically a coup, but not in the way that everybody means when they refer to coups. Also, I think whether they decide to rule the country, and for how long, will determine whether it's a coup, junta, or anything of that sort. I just consider it, "special election by other means."
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Jul 3, 2013 06:03
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OwlBot 2000 posted:The distinction is that the military is doing this not of their own accord, but in response to the demands of the people. I guess it's still technically a coup, but not in the way that everybody means when they refer to coups. Also, I think whether they decide to rule the country, and for how long, will determine whether it's a coup, junta, or anything of that sort. Lest we forget that "coup" is not always synonymous with "anti-democratic", as any Portuguese could tell you.
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Jul 3, 2013 06:05
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Ahram Online has a good timeline of things if anyone needs to get up to speed with all these developments. quote:What prompted the armed forces' forty-eight-hour ultimatum on Monday, and what will come next? Ahram Online provides a brief timeline culled from reports by informed sources from both sides
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Jul 3, 2013 07:21
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Volkerball posted:Ahram Online has a good timeline of things if anyone needs to get up to speed with all these developments. Thank you for this, I'd been trying to figure out what the hell was going on. As to the deadline: http://www.morsicountdown.com/
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Jul 3, 2013 07:47
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Russell William Thorpe posted:Thank you for this, I'd been trying to figure out what the hell was going on. I hate to sound like a sensationalist news anchor but this is causing a lot of weird excitement and anxiety in me. Knowing that vital history is going to happen at a specific time is a surreal feeling but I suppose it's really nothing new. Social media's fault?
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