Middle East Thread of Despair: More Broken Than Syria

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pantslesswithwolves: Oct 28, 2008

I guess at this point we should establish that the military's deadline is on the world-famous Egyptian Time, meaning we can expect a statement at approximately 0247 July 6.

# ? Jul 3, 2013 16:49

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# ? Apr 28, 2025 00:27

MothraAttack: Apr 28, 2008

There's so much speculative reporting on the margins like "this will show the world Muslims can't have democracy" and "ejecting the MB will give extremists great fodder" that my mind is starting to explode.

edit: Now AFP is reporting a travel ban on Morsi and associates. What's the purpose of this? To keep him in place for a trial, as opposed to allowing him the graces of flight?

MothraAttack fucked around with this message at 16:55 on Jul 3, 2013

# ? Jul 3, 2013 16:50

Ham: Apr 30, 2009; You're BALD!

It will probably embolden the Turkish protest movement if it's taken a secularist movdmeng yoppling an Islamic leaning government, which is not entirely true.

In Tahrir and people are vrry tense.

# ? Jul 3, 2013 16:53

Wax Dynasty: Jan 1, 2013; Come on big money, big money, no commies...POST!; Hell Gem

CapnAndy posted:

Ah.

On the one hand this is really neat -- God knows it'd be nice if Americans would take to the streets loving ever, but on the other hand at some point Egypt needs to handle bad leaders democratically, not with mob rule and asking the army to fix everything for them. Hopefully they get it right this time.

Well, the Philippines did it twice, and they have managed to retain a functional (but still really corrupt) democracy.

# ? Jul 3, 2013 16:55

El Ste: Aug 22, 2010

The Guardian is reporting that the New York Times is reporting (heh) that a travel ban has been placed on "President Morsi, the Muslim Brotherhood Supreme Guide, and his deputy Khairat el-Shater".

Interesting.

# ? Jul 3, 2013 17:01

DimpledChad: May 14, 2002; Rigging elections since '87.

Huffpost reporting unconfirmed reports of Morsi being placed under house arrest.

# ? Jul 3, 2013 17:04

etalian: Mar 20, 2006

MothraAttack posted:

There's so much speculative reporting on the margins like "this will show the world Muslims can't have democracy" and "ejecting the MB will give extremists great fodder" that my mind is starting to explode.

edit: Now AFP is reporting a travel ban on Morsi and associates. What's the purpose of this? To keep him in place for a trial, as opposed to allowing him the graces of flight?

It's not like leaving Morsi in power will somehow make things better, he turned out to be a lemon of leader and people can't overlook things such as the continuing downward economic spiral of the country.

# ? Jul 3, 2013 17:05

turn it up TURN ME ON: Mar 19, 2012; In the Grim Darkness of the Future, there is only war.

...and delicious ice cream.

Multiple revolutions isn't unheard of. The French had something like 4.

# ? Jul 3, 2013 17:08

namesake: Jun 19, 2006; "When I was a girl, around 12 or 13, I had a fantasy that I'd grow up to marry Captain Scarlet, but he'd be busy fighting the Mysterons so I'd cuckold him with the sexiest people I could think of - Nigel Mansell, Pat Sharp and Mr. Blobby."

SquadronROE posted:

Multiple revolutions isn't unheard of. The French had something like 4.

Here's hoping for a permanent revolution heh.

Also:

Muslim Brotherhood spokesman Gehad al-Haddad says in a tweet a "full military coup" is under way in Egypt. "Tanks have started moving through the streets," he writes.

# ? Jul 3, 2013 17:09

MothraAttack: Apr 28, 2008

etalian posted:

It's not like leaving Morsi in power will somehow make things better, he turned out to be a lemon of leader and people can't overlook things such as the continuing downward economic spiral of the country.

Agreed. But what's the purpose of prohibiting flight or possibly even placing him under house arrest? Just to assure his removal to the fullest extent possible?

# ? Jul 3, 2013 17:09

Ham: Apr 30, 2009; You're BALD!

There's now some funny rumors that Morsi and the MB would have set up a legitimate government in diaspora outside the country.

# ? Jul 3, 2013 17:11

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

DimpledChad posted:

Huffpost reporting unconfirmed reports of Morsi being placed under house arrest.

His spokesmen have denied that. It's rumour city at the moment, and lots of echo-chambering going on.

# ? Jul 3, 2013 17:13

etalian: Mar 20, 2006

Ham posted:

There's now some funny rumors that Morsi and the MB would have set up a legitimate government in diaspora outside the country.

Well on the bright side the MB already has lots of experience in being a bitter underground movement.

# ? Jul 3, 2013 17:19

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

I'm Tweeting the poo poo out of this at the moment, you can follow me here. Seems pretty clear the army are now deploying in the streets.

Brown Moses fucked around with this message at 17:26 on Jul 3, 2013

# ? Jul 3, 2013 17:24

Svartvit: Jun 18, 2005; al-Qabila samaa Bahth

I can't get my loving burgers delivered.

# ? Jul 3, 2013 17:43

CapnAndy: Feb 27, 2004; Some teeth long for ripping, gleaming wet from black dog gums. So you keep your eyes closed at the end. You don't want to see such a mouth up close. before the bite, before its oblivion in the goring of your soft parts, the speckled lips will curl back in a whinny of excitement. You just know it.

SquadronROE posted:

Multiple revolutions isn't unheard of. The French had something like 4.

Perhaps not the best model to follow, though?

# ? Jul 3, 2013 17:46

Ham: Apr 30, 2009; You're BALD!

Svartvit posted:

I can't get my loving burgers delivered.

I went to tahrir today with tons of hawawshi sandwiches now I'm all out

# ? Jul 3, 2013 17:47

Sereri: Sep 30, 2008; awwwrigami

CapnAndy posted:

Perhaps not the best model to follow, though?

Nothing to lose your head over :haw:

# ? Jul 3, 2013 17:48

pistolshit: May 15, 2004

Supposed Army statement coming at 20:30 Egypt time.

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4400503,00.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

# ? Jul 3, 2013 17:52

Toplowtech: Aug 31, 2004

CapnAndy posted:

Perhaps not the best model to follow, though?

Tell that to the leaders who keep not learning from it.

# ? Jul 3, 2013 17:53

Zeroisanumber: Oct 23, 2010; Nap Ghost

MothraAttack posted:

Agreed. But what's the purpose of prohibiting flight or possibly even placing him under house arrest? Just to assure his removal to the fullest extent possible?

Keeps him from running to the US and making things diplomatically awkward, and signals to Morsi that we've withdrawn our support and he can't expect us to come in and save him.

# ? Jul 3, 2013 18:04

turn it up TURN ME ON: Mar 19, 2012; In the Grim Darkness of the Future, there is only war.

...and delicious ice cream.

CapnAndy posted:

Perhaps not the best model to follow, though?

Possibly, but they seem stable now.

# ? Jul 3, 2013 18:07

Gatts: Jan 2, 2001; Goodnight Moon; Nap Ghost

SquadronROE posted:

Multiple revolutions isn't unheard of. The French had something like 4.

It's the middle east. The history of it is filled with internal conflicts all the time. Like M. Bison says (paraphrased), "For you this was the most significant moment of your life, for me...it was a Tuesday." There'll probably more poo poo coming down the pipe soon enough.

# ? Jul 3, 2013 18:11

Wrennic_26: Jul 9, 2009

Wrennic_26 fucked around with this message at 19:27 on Jul 4, 2013

# ? Jul 3, 2013 18:24

Cyanophyta: Apr 24, 2008

Ham posted:

In Tahrir and people are vrry tense.

Ham you used to troll the poo poo out of me back in the armagoons days, all is forgiven now though.

Just stay safe man :ohdear:

# ? Jul 3, 2013 18:33

cloudchamber: Aug 6, 2010; You know what the Ukraine is? It's a sitting duck. A road apple, Newman. The Ukraine is weak. It's feeble. I think it's time to put the hurt on the Ukraine

SquadronROE posted:

Multiple revolutions isn't unheard of. The French had something like 4.

The whole thing actually matches up to happened between 1848 and 1851 almost perfectly. You have a region wide revolution followed by a reactionary coup. Maybe Hegel/Marx were on to something with the whole repetition in history thing.

# ? Jul 3, 2013 18:36

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

Wrennic_26 posted:

Somewhat delayed here, amidst all the fall of Egypt talk -- but this video looks like a pretty great parody, a military uniform offering seats in the Parliament for sale.

[military uniformed man in back of pickup truck yelling]
"We've got seats! Seats in the Alliance, chairs in the Parliament, in local government, in the provincial council!"

[group of other men pile around the car, asking about the chairs]

military man: Oh, peace be upon you.
mob: And also with you. Seats! What do you have?
military man: By god, we have seats in the Alliance, in the Parliament, in local government, and the provincial council.
mob: How much are the seats?
military man: Well, this seat [Alliance] is 2,000 lira, this one [Parliament] is 1,250, this one [local government] is 1,750, and this one [provincial council] is 250.
mob: But what, how much did you pay for these seats? The prices for these seats are high.
military man: Eh, well, we paid for this this seat [Alliance]... about 100,000 martyrs. And this Parliament one, we paid 50,000 martyrs, and this one was about... 50,000 martyrs. And this one 1,500 martyrs.
mob: Oh!! Well... what about for all of them then!!
military man: Wh... wh.. for the Alliance one brother?

[chaos ensues as the mob all grabs chairs and runs off, firing weapons etc.]

[suit charges in, waving bag of bread -- offers to provide bread for seats; mob member demands weapons instead]

[bread suit wins over, they reluctantly return seats to the truck]

[an argument then ensues between the mob offering the military man weapons for seats, and the suit, offering bread for seats]

[the military man objects that he paid in blood for the seats, so he cannot give them away lightly; some mob members offer to pay in martyrs for seats]

Military man, suit, and mob member turn to the camera at 2:14, and plead with the people outside of Syria not to waste their efforts by trading in seats, and trading away their freedom.

Could I use this on my blog? People love this sort of stuff.

# ? Jul 3, 2013 18:48

Xandu: Feb 19, 2006; It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.

Someone justify the not-a-coup narrative, it feels dumb to me.

# ? Jul 3, 2013 19:08

paragon1: Nov 22, 2010; FULL COMMUNISM NOW

Well, you can argue it isn't a coup if the army doesn't intend to rule itself I guess? A coup usually involves putting yourself or someone who works for you in charge, is that what the army is doing?

# ? Jul 3, 2013 19:13

Bizarro Kanyon: Jan 3, 2007; Something Awful, so easy even a spaceman can do it!

As someone who is just barely getting into this situation, what exactly am I seeing on the Reuters feed? I know it is Tahrir Square but what is in the middle? What are they yelling and are the fireworks if any significance?

# ? Jul 3, 2013 19:13

Amused to Death: Aug 10, 2009; google "The Night Witches", and prepare for

Xandu posted:

Someone justify the not-a-coup narrative, it feels dumb to me.

I don't think there really is one beyond "The people want it and feel like the current political system has failed them and must be demolished. So it's a coup, but totally not a coup guys". I guess since the assumption is the military will take over from a government that has lost almost all popular legitimacy(hey Morsi you're not the only person who knows that word) and will ideally use said power to call for a new democratic government, it's not a coup in the standard "We want all the power!" sense.

Also, good god, just how unpopular has the MB made themselves? I mean I knew it was bad but then I saw this linked on twitter and

quote:

The surveyed sample involved Egyptians with different social and political backgrounds, urban and rural: greater Cairo, the Delta, Upper Egypt and the eastern governorates. Most of the people polled were under 35.

Among the 82 per cent who supported the return of the military institution to political leadership, 46 per cent agreed that the generals should return for a limited period of time, with specified goals that include restoring stability, drafting a consensus constitution and basic supporting laws, restructuring state institutions, and paving the way for free and fair elections that would bring in a qualified civilian president.

Read more: http://www.thenational.ae/thenationalconversation/comment/as-turmoil-grows-in-egypt-army-rule-finds-new-support#ixzz2Y0Z8nRbG
Follow us: @TheNationalUAE on Twitter | thenational.ae on Facebook

e: that's from March on top of it

Amused to Death fucked around with this message at 19:27 on Jul 3, 2013

# ? Jul 3, 2013 19:23

Volkerball: Oct 15, 2009; by FactsAreUseless

Xandu posted:

Someone justify the not-a-coup narrative, it feels dumb to me.

It's most certainly a coup, but it's not a power grab. So while being a "coup" technically, it shouldn't really be implied with all the negative stereotypes. Obviously, impeachment would have been the ideal process here, but I have no idea where the constitutional court has been throughout all this. There's some articles talking about how they were mulling it over during the protests several months ago when Morsi tried to grant himself dictatorial powers, but no action taken. :shrug:

# ? Jul 3, 2013 19:23

Petey: Nov 26, 2005; For who knows what is good for a person in life, during the few and meaningless days they pass through like a shadow? Who can tell them what will happen under the sun after they are gone?

I truly apologize for asking this -

I've been traveling without much Internet access and have no clue what is going on. Am still in the Mediterranean (other side thankfully) for a few more days. Besides BM's Twitter, what should I read to get me up to speed on what's happening and what's continuing to happen (a summary post, a blog entry, etc) via an iphone with intermittent access? Can't muster the AJE stream right now.

Thanks / sorry.

# ? Jul 3, 2013 19:24

Zeroisanumber: Oct 23, 2010; Nap Ghost

Xandu posted:

Someone justify the not-a-coup narrative, it feels dumb to me.

A coup is the overthrow of a government by a small clique. A popular revolt is the ouster of a government at the demand of a vast swath of the citizenry. This looks more like a popular revolt than a coup, but time will tell.

# ? Jul 3, 2013 19:26

a bad enough dude: Jun 30, 2007; APPARENTLY NOT A BAD ENOUGH DUDE TO STICK TO ONE THING AT A TIME WHETHER ITS PBPS OR A SHITTY BROWSER GAME THAT I BEG MONEY FOR AND RIPPED FROM TROPICO. ALSO I LET RETARDED UKRANIANS THAT CAN'T PROGRAM AND HAVE 2000 HOURS IN GARRY'S MOD RUN MY SHIT.

paragon1 posted:

Well, you can argue it isn't a coup if the army doesn't intend to rule itself I guess? A coup usually involves putting yourself or someone who works for you in charge, is that what the army is doing?

The military will certainly use this opportunity to increase their power in the next government. Whether it takes the form of a Mubarak style military dictatorship or another attempt at democracy is anyone's guess.

# ? Jul 3, 2013 19:27

Ham: Apr 30, 2009; You're BALD!

Apparently these people will join the head of the military for the speech/statement:

- Mohamed El Baradei, inspirational leader of the revolution/former IAEA chief/someone that's been thoroughly disparaged by Mubarak and Islamic media.

- Ahmed El Tayeb, Sheikh and head of Al Azhar University, the highest institution of Sunni islamic learning.

- Pope Tawadros II, head of the Coptic Church.

# ? Jul 3, 2013 19:28

Xandu: Feb 19, 2006; It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.

Amused to Death posted:

I don't think there really is one beyond "The people want it and feel like the current political system has failed them and must be demolished. So it's a coup, but totally not a coup guys". I guess since the assumption is the military will take over from a government that has lost almost all popular legitimacy(hey Morsi you're not the only person who knows that word) and will ideally use said power to call for a new democratic government, it's not a coup in the standard "We want all the power!" sense.

Also, good god, just how unpopular has the MB made themselves? I mean I knew it was bad but then I saw this linked on twitter and

I don't trust their data, but I suspect thw real number is fairly high.

I don't think coups have to be bad, but if the military is issuing travel bans, demanding concessions from the president, and deploying into the streets, it's a coup.

# ? Jul 3, 2013 19:29

a bad enough dude: Jun 30, 2007; APPARENTLY NOT A BAD ENOUGH DUDE TO STICK TO ONE THING AT A TIME WHETHER ITS PBPS OR A SHITTY BROWSER GAME THAT I BEG MONEY FOR AND RIPPED FROM TROPICO. ALSO I LET RETARDED UKRANIANS THAT CAN'T PROGRAM AND HAVE 2000 HOURS IN GARRY'S MOD RUN MY SHIT.

Mohamed El Baradei was not an "inspirational leader of the revolution." He was barely an important figure outside of a western media obsession with him.

# ? Jul 3, 2013 19:30

Cao Ni Ma: May 25, 2010

Ham posted:

Apparently these people will join the head of the military for the speech/statement:

- Mohamed El Baradei, inspirational leader of the revolution/former IAEA chief/someone that's been thoroughly disparaged by Mubarak and Islamic media.

- Ahmed El Tayeb, Sheikh and head of Al Azhar University, the highest institution of Sunni islamic learning.

- Pope Tawadros II, head of the Coptic Church.

Soooo they are basically going to go with the MB are a bunch of extremist and now is the time to for moderate, inclusive leadership.

# ? Jul 3, 2013 19:30

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# ? Apr 28, 2025 00:27

Volkerball: Oct 15, 2009; by FactsAreUseless

Petey posted:

I truly apologize for asking this -

I've been traveling without much Internet access and have no clue what is going on. Am still in the Mediterranean (other side thankfully) for a few more days. Besides BM's Twitter, what should I read to get me up to speed on what's happening and what's continuing to happen (a summary post, a blog entry, etc) via an iphone with intermittent access? Can't muster the AJE stream right now.

Thanks / sorry.

You don't have to apologize. Here's a timeline from Ahram Online.

quote:

What prompted the armed forces' forty-eight-hour ultimatum on Monday, and what will come next? Ahram Online provides a brief timeline culled from reports by informed sources from both sides

Tuesday, 25 June: A group of activists and opposition figures notify the minister of defense that momentum for planned 30 June demonstrations calling for early presidential elections were picking up "unprecedented support," assessed at no less than six million demonstrators for the day by intelligence. They go on to voice concern over potential confrontations with Islamists.

The meeting comes against the backdrop of an ultimatum issued by the armed forces in line with its constitutional capacity as the guarantor of national security. The military calls on all political parties to reach a settlement that would save the nation from serious political conflict in language sympathetic to opposition demands for change, which are supported by both Al-Azhar and the Coptic-Orthodox Church.

Wednesday, 26 June: A group of opposition leaders meet with leaders of the Salafist Nour Party and share concerns over extended political turmoil should the Muslim Brotherhood and President Mohamed Morsi decline to bow to opposition demands for early presidential elections in view of the expected huge crowds set to join anti-Morsi marches and the unmistakable deterioration of living conditions.

Nour Party leadership communicates the message to the leadership of the Muslim Brotherhood and offers last-ditch mediation that would include meeting key demands of the opposition. These include the appointment of a new government, a new prosecutor-general and a committee tasked with revisiting controversial articles of the constitution, within the context of a phased reconciliation scheme to be followed by a national dialogue meeting and agreement on a date for early presidential elections.

The mediation scheme is offered the support of the army, which begins visible deployment without prior coordination with the president. An extended meeting between the president and defense minister fails to reverse the deployment, as Muslim Brotherhood attempts to find support for removing the minister of defense fail.

President Morsi makes a speech that shocks the opposition as extremely out of touch and non-reconciliatory, if not outright provocative. Morsi reiterates calls for national dialogue, which is ignored by the opposition that has zero faith in the presidential offer due to discouraging past experiences.

Thursday, 27 June: The leadership of the Muslim Brotherhood decides shrugs off the offer on the basis that reconciliation before the 30 June demonstrations would prompt political greed on the part of the opposition. The president calls on his prime minister to work with the cabinet to try and fix the signs of economic malaise. Leaders of militant Islamist groups show solidarity with the Muslim Brotherhood, along with some but not all of the leaders of Salafist parties and movements.

Mobilization is ordered by leaders of the Muslim Brotherhood. The defense minister consults with army commanders on the prospects of a showdown in view of the Brotherhood's lack of willingness to show interest in any compromise deals, including one offered by the Salafist Nour Party and others offered by independent Islamist figures.

Official information indicates growing mobilization for the 30 June protests, not just by activists and supporters of the regime of Hosni Mubarak, but by many individuals. The army begins a more visible deployment, with vehicles carrying stickers expressing the army's support for opposition demands.

Friday, 28 June: Islamist figures and followers of the Muslim Brotherhood gather for Friday prayers around Rabaa Al-Adawiya Mosque in Nasr City in the thousands. Preachers and speakers announce plans for a sit-in in solidarity with the elected president and his legitimacy. The speakers vow unconditional support for Morsi.

Meanwhile, thousands gather at Tahrir Square and around the Ittihadiyah presidential palace in a prelude to the 30 June demonstrations. Army, police and intelligence leadership make a unified decision to bow to the "will of the people." The Muslim Brotherhood leadership contacts key Western capitals with a message of certainty that the turnout for the 30 June demonstrations would not exceed one million people who would not stay for long.

Activists and opposition leaders step up preparations for 30 June and communicate confidence to their rank and file. Opposition figures meet with army representatives to discuss transition beyond Morsi.

Saturday, 29 June: An anxious Muslim Brotherhood leadership calls on supporters to join the Nasr City crowd. Activists make an unprecedented show of anti-Morsi sentiment and call on citizens to join calls for Morsi to step down.

The army imposes tough security monitoring on senior Muslim Brotherhood figures and continues deliberations amid assessments of huge demonstrations on Sunday. Western capitals call on all parties to reach a compromise.

Sunday, 30 June: Millions take to the streets to call on Morsi to step down. The president fails to convince police to protect the Muslim Brotherhood's headquarters in Cairo's Moqattam district. Nationwide demonstrations persist in the face of alarmist calls suggesting violent confrontations between Islamists and non-Islamists. Clerics at the Nasr City gathering switch from threats to appeals for reconciliation.

The army leadership decides that time is running out for Morsi. The Salafist leadership again tries to extract a compromise from the Muslim Brotherhood leadership, as several cabinet members offer resignations. Spokesmen for the president hold press conferences to convey a message of resilience in the face of the demonstrations. The president is kept under the eyes of the intelligence apparatus.

Pressure is ratcheted up by the president to agree to bow to the opposition's demands. Western capitals adopt more accommodating language regarding demonstrators' demands, but stress the need to observe the rules of the democratic process. The president unsuccessfully tries to lobby the support of some army leaders.

Monday, 1 July: The Muslim Brotherhood insists that it is not bowing to the demands of the street and insists on the democratic right of the elected president to continue his term in office. The prime minister and minister of defense meet with the president in search of a way out of the crisis, but no agreement is made.

The minister of defense consults with political advisors and issues a statement from the central command of the army � a roughly fifty-member body made up of top brass � that basically offers a forty-eight-hour ultimatum to the president to bow to the demands of the opposition.

Massive numbers of demonstrators take to the streets to celebrate. The president and Muslim Brotherhood decline to give way. Calls for a wider show of support for the president are made by the leadership of the Muslim Brotherhood.

The minister of defense and president meet extensively, but no compromise is reached. Pro-Morsi marches start to assemble, but offer no match to the massive public show of support for the army.

The Muslim Brotherhood vows defiance and communicates a message of resilience to concerned Western capitals, which in turn call for an agreed upon exit. The presidency announces it had received support from the White House, but the White House denies the assertion.

Western capitals receive calls from the Muslim Brotherhood to counter any possible support for a "coup d'etat." An army spokesman issues a statement insisting that it is not executing a coup against the president, but is only acting upon the "will of the people."

Tuesday, 2 July: The country braces for a post-Morsi Egypt with parallel and intense meetings between opposition, military, intelligence, police and judiciary in search of a semi-constitutional exit. The cabinet of Hisham Qandil offers its resignation to the president as the army calls on the president to transfer its authorities to a new prime minister, who would then assemble a bureaucratic cabinet that would take over the launch of a transitional phase for one year to eighteen months.

The army assures all concerned capitals that it is not planning to rule. Army and police are on high alert amid speculation of possible bloody confrontations. The army sends a message to the Muslim Brotherhood leadership to come to terms on an agreement to avoid confrontation and threatens to arrest anyone involved in speculated paramilitary activities.

The army awaits the president to either agree to make a televised statement to the nation to announce the transfer of power to a new prime minister or to decline and give room for the army to announce details of the transition. Large masses take to the streets to re-emphasize demands for Morsi to step down and for a new beginning of transition.

Then just keeping up with the thread and twitter should keep you up to date.

# ? Jul 3, 2013 19:30

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > Middle East Thread of Despair: More Broken Than Syria

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