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El Anansi
Jan 27, 2008
Norman Finkelstein gave a lecture at my school yesterday--his first ever in Egypt, I guess--in which he laid out a lot of observations w/r/t how the Arab Spring generally and the Egyptian revolt specifically are going to alter the political landscape of I/P from here on out. Here is an interview he did with the Egyptian daily Al Masry Al Youm which covers some of the same stuff.

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El Anansi
Jan 27, 2008

Brown Moses posted:

• The British-based photographer Anton Hammerl has been killed in the Libyan desert. His family called the Libyan regime as "cruel" for withholding news of his death.

gently caress. One of my friends here worked with that dude--there was a rally in the UK the other week at the Libyan embassy pressing for news about him, as they had at least provided some confirmation about the other journalists that had been presumed captured.
He survived by two small children; wife. :smith:

El Anansi
Jan 27, 2008

Brown Moses posted:

I'm guessing he'll face a death sentence.

from my own conversations with revolutionaries here, I get the impression they're more keen on seeing a trial generally than seeing Mubarak hang in particular. If they put him away and manage to recoup a decent sum of his pilfered wealth, I doubt anyone will be clamoring for his head.

El Anansi
Jan 27, 2008
Just got back from Tahrir a few minutes ago, it's a pretty big group right now, but it definitely pales to the crowds we got during the last week of January/first week of February. The difference in how it's being handled can't be overstated, though: during January all of downtown was completely locked down and blocked to vehicle traffic, whereas I just got from one end to the other via taxi completely unhindered in like three minutes. As far as I could tell, it's only an army presence for security--understandably people have some lingering resentments w/r/t the police here--and they're being as chill as ever, mostly just checking people for weapons and checking ID at the borders of the protest area.
There's kind of been a perpetual protest village in front of the State Media building on the Nile since Mubarak stepped down, this kind of seems like the same kind of deal, just on a larger scale.
My school recommended we not leave our apartments today, but I'd seriously be surprised if any real poo poo goes down today. The guys running the military aren't saints, frankly they've been loving inscrutable for the last couple months, but they're a damned sight smarter than Habib and the rest of the jackasses responsible for what happened the last time we had a "day of rage".

El Anansi
Jan 27, 2008
Hey, downtown Cairo goon here checking in: As of last night and this morning, Tahrir is shut the hell down again with a pretty sizable protest group that's getting somewhat violent with Central Security, for which reason I got tear-gassed the poo poo out of a couple hours ago. There's been a perennial protest culture here in the months since Mubarak's ouster, although there's no one goal uniting it, rather a melange of interests and demands that manifest in demonstrations in Tahrir itself (large groups every Friday, to the extent that it's become kind of a social thing for young people) and in front of various ministries and government buildings. This latest wave was touched off by the arrest of various protesting family members of those killed in the earlier demonstrations (that is, the Shohadaa, or Martyrs, a word that's been painted over pretty much every place Mubarak's name was written in all of Egypt) and has taken on the character of a call for the end of the Supreme Council of Armed Forces government that's currently running poo poo. I'd be surprised if it snowballs too far (unless the police does something desperately loving stupid again, in which case it's anyone's game), but it's about the nastiest I've seen it since February. Gonna be an interesting fall.

Al Masry Al Youm (A liberal independent Egyptian daily) article here: http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/node/472561

Al Masry Al Youm posted:

Fifteen people were arrested as the relatives protested at the Balloon Theater in the Agouza district, after which the group decided to march on the Interior Ministry, close to Tahrir Square, where a further 20 were arrested.

As these later arrests were made, protesters clashed with security forces, and the confrontation spread to Qasr al-Aini Street, a main Cairo thoroughfare, and Mohamed Mahmoud Street, which borders the American University in Cairo’s downtown campus.

At least 25 civilians have been injured in the clashes so far.

Some protesters said they feared this was a continuation of the fallen regime's tactics. "It's the same thing happening again, nothing has changed," said Mohamed Abdel Raouf, a protester. Central Security Forces used tear gas extensively, as well as beatings and water cannons, during the early days of the 25 January revolution.

Protesters chanted, “The people want the fall of the general,” in reference to Field Marshall Mohamed Hussein Tantawi, the head of the ruling Supreme Council of the Armed Forces.

Tahrir Square was the epicenter of Egypt’s 18-day uprising that toppled former President Hosni Mubarak. The last clashes between protesters and security forces occurred on 9 April when military police stormed the square, firing hundreds of gunshots and injuring several protesters.

El Anansi
Jan 27, 2008
It's hard to say--I'd be inclined to think that it won't directly spawn any further protests, but it's notable in that it's still going on, something like eight or nine hours in and over the course of an entire night. I'm on a bus to New Cairo (middle of the drat desert) right now, but I'll go take a look when I get back this afternoon and see what's up.
As of this morning, it's kind of the same kind of dynamic from the Jan-Feb protests, where people keep rushing police lines, getting tear gassed, then a thousands-strong group of people starts running away, then eventually they turn around and rush police lines again.
I admit I didn't get too far into the mass of people this morning. Police got close enough to killing me last time, I'm not real eager to give anyone another bite at that particular apple.

El Anansi
Jan 27, 2008

Ham posted:


Not really sure how to feel about it. I agree that SCAF is kinda bumbling about, it began with the committee they appointed to set-up the framework of a new constituion, which turned out to be a very badly worded one and then with Mubarak still being held in a hospital in Sharm El Sheikh, trials getting constantly delayed and the like, but in all it seems like the people who initiated the riot at the theatre are the ones to blame.


Agreed. The SCAF is getting pulled in a bunch of different directions at once and have definitely had a mixed record during the transitional period. The Egyptian military's such a weird animal that it's hard to say for sure what they even want to happen with all this.
I doubt any real policy shifts are likely to follow from this: the constitutional vote's a done deal; I get the impression they're moving the trials as fast as they can--by all accounts, Mubarak is in extremely poor health at the moment--and offhand I can't think of anything else they could do to placate this particular vein of anger.

Also of interest: apparently the SCAF is basically telling the IMF to gently caress off, which is one of the first indicators of what kind of macroeconomic policy slate they've got in mind.

E: @Ham, how'd you happen to be in that particular part of Giza last night?

El Anansi
Jan 27, 2008
Good god I wish people would stop paying attention to Gigi Ibrahim. Homegirl is seriously dumb as a rock and--I poo poo ye not--only got excited about revolutionary politics because she was taking a class on revolutionary politics. Although it is a testament to the disingenuousness of the American press's (It's a purely ideological struggle by brave secularist liberals who want democracy! It had nothing at all to do with economic concerns re: skyrocketing food prices and not having any drat jobs) frame of the Egyptian uprising that they made a frontwoman out of an AUC aristocrat whose family is insanely rich because of the Mubarak kleptocracy.

By all accounts people are still filtering into Tahrir and something like 700 people have been injured, but miraculously there's no reported fatalities as of yet. Headed back to the area in a bit, I'll keep y'all posted as I'm able.

If I get back and my apartment's on fire I swear I am going to flip a poo poo. :argh:

El Anansi
Jan 27, 2008

Ham posted:

One final point about this, the revolution was about many things. Some will tell you it's just about economy and food for the majority of poor people, but that's wrong. Most of Egypt's middle and upper-middle class participated, and when I was with friends it was because of police brutality, civil rights and economic reform aimed at the poor. It wasn't about our own economical gain.

Oh, no argument there, I spent enough time at Tahrir in Jan/Feb to appreciate that you had people there from pretty much every social group imaginable, and that they all had different axes to grind w/the Mubarak government. I just always rankle at the Disneyfied version sold to Westerners that either marginalizes or entirely omits the participation of leftists, unions, and religious conservatives.

El Anansi
Jan 27, 2008

shotgunbadger posted:

Yea I rewatched and that whole 'putting it over his dick and thrusting' is pretty clearly not signaling, unless Egypt has like, the most horrifying police ever.

I almost wouldn't put it past them, honestly.

By the time I got back yesterday afternoon there were still a decent number of people there, but nothing was really going on--it was back into the normal protest mode, same as they do every Friday. I think they took the police units off the street, as it was just army ones when I got there. Also, the medical response was pretty impressive, I don't think I mentioned--they had thirty or forty ambulances lining the streets yesterday.
As of this morning, there's still some hangers-on trying to keep it going, but there's not many of them. I think there's a chance things will flare back up tomorrow with the normal gathering, but it all depends on what provocation happens when and to whom.
Also that video is amazing.

El Anansi
Jan 27, 2008

shotgunbadger posted:

What is the 'same'? The US/Euro media moved on from Egypt as soon as the Libya poo poo hit the fan so I have no idea what the 'usual' is for you guys now. Is it basically just normal protesters on one side going 'hey, stop holding all the power, army, that's kinda lovely' and the cops/army on the other going 'nope', or are there still violent clashes beyond the one we just read about?

There have been a couple occasions on which things have gotten violent, but the norm has been that every Friday people gather in Tahrir, and while there's some signs and chanting, it's taken on all kinds of nonpolitical significance, a kind of weekly civic festival that's also a place for young Egyptians to meet girls and whatnot. Most of the time there isn't even much of an increased police presence in downtown, as far as I've seen. Of course, with the right flash point, it could certainly provide a lot of fuel to something that turns contentious or violent.

El Anansi
Jan 27, 2008

shotgunbadger posted:

Huh, interesting, does it look like that's going to just kinda wind up a 'thing' that evolved from the protests and all into a more peaceful meaning? That's actually pretty heartwarming in its own way.

It certainly seems possible to me, although I imagine the character of those gatherings going forward is going to be influenced pretty heavily by whatever happens this fall.
I should qualify that I'm not an Egyptian, just some white dude from Minnesota who's been studying Arabic here for about a year, so mine's still an outsider's perspective, I'm just riffing on what I've seen and what local friends have told me.

El Anansi
Jan 27, 2008

Brown Moses posted:

Tripoli updates from the FGM rebels in Tripoli:

Good lord that's an unfortunate abbreviation.

I know Ham's been more involved and posted a bit about the current round of the Tahrir sit-in, but for completeness's sake, I thought I'd mention a few of my observations. I just came through the square a while ago and it's still got a few thousand folks in it, although there's definitely been some ebb and flow to that--yesterday was outrageous busy. This time around it's taken on even more of a state-fair feel at times: they put up big white tents on the western side, there's music and speeches on different impromptu stages, kids getting their faces painted, and at one point I'm pretty sure they had some sort of game going where children were throwing stuff at a giant sheet with regime officials' faces on it hanging from a lightpost for prizes. It bears mention that all the protest security is being dealt with by the protestors themselves (as has been the case since February), who maintain checkpoints on all corners of the protest area and are remarkably thorough about checking ID and bags/clothing.

Regarding the speculation about the dialogue right now among the SCAF folks, I do think it's important to note that it's not as if they haven't changed anything, as some of the foreign policy shifts and the radical changes to the police presence would have been unthinkable before all this. Additionally, they basically told the IMF to gently caress off the other week, which represents a major departure from Mubarak/Sadat-era economic policy. Of course, at the risk of sounding Friedmanesque, this is absolutely a marathon rather than a sprint and any meaningful success in political change is going to be a function of keeping the pressure on going forward, which is exactly what the sit-in is about.

El Anansi
Jan 27, 2008
Hey guys auxiliary Cairo goon checking in, dunno where Ham at. Just got back from the square about ten minutes ago, and as hosed up as the last two days have been it's actually a pretty fun atmosphere for the moment--I think the most quintessentially Egyptian trait is the ability to transition between battle and carnival with almost unseemly haste. Lots of people wearing gas masks, lots of people selling popcorn and cotton candy in between them, all kind of surreal. It's busy, too, albeit not quite like it was in January, when you could literally pick up your feet in the middle of the crowd and not fall.
Lots of anti-military slogans, most common just being "We do not accept a military government". The crowd's more diverse than in Friday's protests, probably slanting somewhat more towards young people as per the organizers and the formal withdrawal of the Brotherhood, as well as the fact that the further-right religious parties weren't in on this from the beginning.
Anyone's guess when the next big thing happens; it's clear the SCAF doesn't want this protest movement hanging over the elections, but they're kind of in a bind--people are only getting angrier at them and further brutality is likely to bring a lot of international attention that they really don't want either.

El Anansi
Jan 27, 2008

Brown Moses posted:

What do you think of the theory that the SCAF provoked this on purpose in order to justify delaying the elections?

They're definitely not above inciting riots for political reasons (Maspero) but I'd be pretty skeptical about that theory specifically, especially in light of how adamant they've been that elections will be held on schedule no matter what happens or how many bodies they rack up. Additionally, it's hard to see any way these events could even be construed to break their way. One thing I've heard from a lot of people, although there's certainly competing ideas about this, is that no legitimate elections can be held until there's a hard, binding agreement in place that puts the military under civilian control, whereas others in the current movement think that until a legislature is elected, there's no authority to demand that the SCAF transfer power. Personally, I lean more towards the former idea, but I also don't think that the present atmosphere entails enough pressure on the military to make that concession.

El Anansi
Jan 27, 2008

Patter Song posted:

Egypt is moving into some very dangerous straits, to be frank. I honestly have no idea what to expect, but given that the military seems far more aggressive this time than they were in February, I could very easily see some tragic events coming up.

As crappy as things have gotten right now we're still orders of magnitude short of the kind of violence we saw during the last week of January and first of February. The SCAF knows that pushing too hard will bring the kind of condemnation that helped oust Mubarak, and with the numbers in Tahrir right now any sort of major attack would turn into an absolute bloodbath. Part of the problem is that they're still working with the same blunt instrument--Internal Security and the Central police--as before, a horde of violent, abused dumbfucks who have no experience with having to make anything look like a legitimate police action, whatever that would be. Wherever they're engaged, they're going to maul people with two-by-fours and aim for the head with whatever less-lethal weapons they're using.
It could well get very worse, but that's the last thing the SCAF wants--they want this all just to go away with a minimum of bloodshed so they can get the elections over with. Looking less and less likely by the hour though :(

El Anansi
Jan 27, 2008
goddammit

http://edition.cnn.com/2011/11/22/world/africa/egypt-americans-arrested/ posted:


Cairo (CNN) -- Egyptian authorities arrested three American college students outside the Interior Ministry in Cairo's Tahrir Square, accusing them of throwing Molotov cocktails during the protests there, officials said Tuesday.

"The three boys were throwing Molotov cocktails and had no passports on them when they were picked up," said Adel Saeed, a spokesman for the office of Egypt's general prosecutor.

At least two of the students were on a semester-long study abroad program at American University in Cairo, school spokeswoman Morgan Roth said.

She identified them as Gregory Porter, 19, of Glenside, Pennsylvania; Luke Gates, 21, of Bloomington, Indiana; and a Georgetown University student whose name was not immediately released. Porter attends Drexel University in Philadelphia and Gates attends Indiana University.

A police video of the three shown on state television shows them lined up against a wall next to each other in front of what appeared to be fluid-filled bottles. The video also showed what appeared to be an Indiana driver's license and American University identification cards, but the names could not be made out.

"They have been questioned by the police and will be further investigated today by the Cairo prosecutor," Saeed said.

American University officials are still working to gather details and notify the students' families, Roth said. They are also closely working with the U.S. Embassy in Cairo, she said.

David Lynfield, deputy press officer for the U.S. Embassy, said the "claims are being currently investigated."

Tuesday marked the fourth consecutive day of clashes between protesters and police in and around Tahrir Square. Demonstrators are calling for the removal of the Supreme Council of Armed Forces, the ruling body that took power after President Hosni Mubarak was toppled by popular protests in February.

Pretty sure I met these guys a while back, but this is so stupid and harmful I can't even bring myself to feel sorry for them. It's easy enough to avoid a fight, even for those of us that live in Downtown, but these study-abroad dbags went looking for one, and now it's an international incident. GOOD JOB, BROS.

Also, I actually met that Embassy press officer a while back too--nice guy, but was wearing the worst-fitting suit I've ever seen that wasn't on Ron Paul.

Brown Moses posted:

At this point I don't think the protesters will accept anything less than the total removal of the military as rulers, and if anyone like El Baradei accepts being part of anything less then they'll be tarred with the same brush.

Agreed--the El Baradei move is clearly a swing for the international legitimacy fences (as he himself doesn't really have a strong domestic constituency, honestly the impression I get is that most people think he's kind of a carpetbagger) and shame on him if he goes for the offer.

Ultras Lazio posted:


Why do you think the MB is telling its supporters not to participate into this round of protests?

What's interesting about this recent round of protests (starting last Friday) is that the Brotherhood actually started it. I was at a cafe near the square after prayers and there was just this endless parade of men in religious garb funneling into Tahrir. They pulled out, as far as I'm aware, once the makeup of the assembly started shifting to the young and liberal. While the protest was originally called to object to moves by the military that indicated they're not serious about transferring power, and that's a common interest of liberals and the Brotherhood alike, the religious groups felt that the liberal groups were going to push things out of control. Also, I get the impression they just don't like the liberal groups very much; a MB guy who I often purchase lunch from colorfully described them as "dirty people".
My best guess is that since Freedom and Justice is all set to win big in the elections (as far as anyone knows, anyway) the Brotherhood doesn't want to mess with the situation, rather they want to get elected and then see about forcing the military to transfer power. The conspiracy theories about some sort of "grand bargain" between the military and the Brotherhood don't entirely seem consonant with the situation, but I'm willing to be surprised.

quote:

What effect do you think this http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15834861 closure of the Stock exchange can have to Egyptian economy in this delicate moment?

This isn't really my wheelhouse, so to speak, but I seem to recall that the overall hit to the Egyptian economy from the few weeks of banks being closed during the revolution as well as the drop in tourism hasn't been quite as severe as it probably should have been. At this point, I don't think closing the exchange is that bad an idea--in the event things stabilize in the medium term, it will have prevented any sort of selloff, but depending on how long this lasts, it could wind up being a catastrophe.

El Anansi
Jan 27, 2008

Ultras Lazio posted:

Can I ask you what do these young and liberal people think of a most-likely MB victory?

Do they/you think it will lead to another uprising if and when some sort of illiberal Islamic doctrine is imposed?

Lastly, an MB vistory...is it really this likely or is it naive to hope that below the public declarations, a suprise defeat could happen? Meaning, do you think it's possible that people say they will vote MB but in secret will opt for more liberal, secular parties?

A couple points about the MB: Firstly, as well as anyone understands the electoral landscape, while Freedom and Justice commands the most support, the youth of Egyptian political culture means that there's a pretty large number of different parties, and plurality support might entail as little as 25% of the electorate. In turn, the Brotherhood hasn't shied away from what seem like bizarre political alliances, as there's currently Nasserist (i.e. socialist) and liberal parties pledged to the Freedom and Justice coalition. Secondly, the Brotherhood itself is a big enough group to have a lot of diverse interests within it, including more progressive groups of young people who've been clashing with the group's leadership. The US media insists on comparing them to Hamas (which, in fairness, did emerge from the earlier, way more radical incarnation of the MB) and Hezbollah, but at this point the party itself is much more interested in emulating Turkey's AKP (albeit without the quasi-leftist economic bent). While there have been a lot of really stupid ideas advanced from individuals within the organization, it's far from evident that those kind of sweeping reforms have strong support even within the party-at-large, let alone with enough of the electorate to have much of a chance of surviving the legislative process. Most of the actual hard-right Islamists aren't even part of the comparatively moderate MB, preferring instead the Nour Party or any of a few smaller Salafi parties that want to do some really far-out poo poo, but will never be taken seriously enough to accomplish it.

As far as how the liberal activists are likely to react to a MB parliamentary victory, I think that the institution of a meaningful democratic system, for better or worse, will take a lot of the wind out of the sails of the protest movement. More importantly, as I implied earlier, I think the type of fundamental change that might trigger any sort of further sizable unrest is pretty much impossible in the near term.

With regard to the actual electoral results, that's seriously anyone's guess, as there isn't really any polling to speak of here. I've met people with all kinds of political opinions here (since the revolution, it's all anyone wants to talk about :unsmith:) but I don't know that I can really offer any insight on how the numbers stack up.

Hope that addressed your questions adequately, kind of drifted a bit there. Gave blood today and kind of hiding my hypotense rear end off this evening, so I'm happy to field any other questions I can.

El Anansi
Jan 27, 2008

Ham posted:

Yeah I've met these guys before, pretty idiotic and I think they were trying to hold their own Occupy Tahrir Square. Just came back from Tahrir myself and it's looking very much like it did during the revolution.

Yay Ham what up

They still going at it on Mohamed Mahmoud? I stepped outside a few minutes ago and there's still a light mist of tear gas in the air like almost a kilometer south of the square on Qasr al-Aini.

El Anansi
Jan 27, 2008

Jut posted:

I really don't get it...the SCAF held a referendum, they were planning on having elections in a few days time, and further elections in June/July. They haven't been sitting on their arse saying "la la la no elections for you!".

The concern isn't with a lack of elections, it's with the perception that the military government is unwilling to transfer power to a civilian authority, something that's become increasingly clear in recent weeks.

El Anansi
Jan 27, 2008

Narmi posted:

They've also been holding some 16,000 protesters for trial in military courts, and have refused to hand over power to a civilian council (they were supposed to have done this within six months of Mubarak steping down).

Oh, also, in a move that defines chutzpah, at the same time that they're running all these people through military courts, they're trying to force measures that would make it impossible to try military officers in civilian courts. :psyduck:

El Anansi
Jan 27, 2008

Brown Moses posted:

It's seem to me like the military are trying to distance themselves from the police, and make out it's a Ministry of Interior versus the people problem, not the military versus the people. I don't think it's going to work.

This has been my sense of it as well--the government both under Mubarak and the SCAF has made a lot of use of the comparative reputations of the police and the army, positioning the latter as saviors against the former during the earlier conflict. This time, however, a lot of the sentiment in Tahrir is unambiguously anti-military, and I think people are much less credulous of the idea that the earlier brutality didn't come straight from the top. Perhaps that's true in the sense that it wasn't exactly the intended result, but the guys running poo poo right now know exactly how poorly-trained and violent the police forces are (this week has been very much a case of deja vu for everyone here), and chose to engage them anyway.

El Anansi
Jan 27, 2008

Brown Moses posted:

These are the three idiot American students released yesterday


Do any Cairo goons recognise them?

Yeah, they're friends of friends of friends that I've run into at parties a few times. Last I heard, their entire respective programs are probably going to pull all their students in Cairo over this, which seriously bites for anyone who happened to be from the same group. Also, there was this weirdness regarding one of them.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/blogpost/post/luke-gates-american-student-arrested-in-cairo-wrote-on-twitter-of-wanting-to-die-in-egypt/2011/11/22/gIQA61Y3kN_blog.html posted:

Luke Gates, of the three American students from the American University in Cairo who was arrested and paraded on state television Tuesday, wrote often on his Twitter account of his experiences in Tahrir Square and of wanting to die in the country. Gates is a student at Indiana University on the semester abroad program in Cairo.


Two days ago, Gates wrote on Twitter that he threw rocks in the square, and Monday he wrote that a part of his ear was missing after being in the square with rubber bullets.

“I just don’t want to feel anymore,” he wrote Saturday, just before heading to the square.

With regard to the tear gas, I didn't see this posted, but apparently the police have been using a different, more powerful variety of tear gas that can make people vomit, poo poo theyselves, go blind, or collapse into seizures ("they're shooting ethanol?" one friend joked). As for the origin, as far as I know all the CS gas that the Internal Ministry uses comes from the States, from one particular company out of Pennsylvania. The handful of canisters I found were all expired; I don't know how that might affect their potency or toxicity.

Laughed p hard at the pro-SCAF demonstrations. That shouldn't be construed to indicate that no one supports them, but rather that their supporters aren't what you'd call enthusiastic, rather just weary of the protests disrupting things.

A few days back someone did this to one of the iconic lion statues on the Qasr Al-Nil bridge near Tahrir, and I think it is great.



Fakeedit: Story about the tear gas manufacturer is here: http://www.salon.com/2011/11/20/egypt_uses_u_s_teargas_on_pro_democracy_crowds/singleton/

So glad I paid US federal income taxes last year so a tyrannical foreign government can poison me (and thousands of other folks of course.

El Anansi
Jan 27, 2008

Young Freud posted:

The gently caress?!

Haha yeah that's kind of weird--the two main candidates in my area are "motorcycle" and "leaf", I think.

El Anansi
Jan 27, 2008

THE HORSES rear end posted:

I'm actually optimistic about where this is headed. There has never been a single instance where democratically elected Islamists have not done one of the following:

Turn the people against them.

or

Eventually water down their positions so that the people don't turn against them.

The only country where an unfettered Islamist victory WOULDN'T immediately crash and burn is probably Saudi Arabia, but by the time that country is ready to hold free and fair elections Salafism will probably be in it's death throes.

Many politically active Muslims are like young Marxists. Once they get a taste of the policies they support, they realize what idiots they were and quickly come to their senses.

Agree with this, sort of--Freedom and Justice's platform, as far as I can figure it, is somewhat vague w/r/t economic policy, which is going to be of huge importance in the coming year what with all the disruptions this last one. Historically the Brotherhood has been more free-market/capitalist, at times more as an expression of how much they hated Nasser than anything, and that seems to still be the tone of things. They're still counting on tourism as a major driver of the economy, but of the more Islamic policies they've proposed, a lot of them (restrictions on liquor sales, clothing at tourist sites [in fairness, the way Russians dress, even in hyper-conservative parts of Upper Egypt, just about put my jaw through the sand]) would be unequivocally detrimental to that sector.

Additionally, of the obvious economic moves that need to be made, there's the issue of a number of previously state-owned industries that got sold to Mubarak cronies for pennies on the dollar that probably ought to be renationalized and possibly re-privatized at actual market value, but that seems outside the realm of what F&J is willing to undertake. Rambling a bit but generally it seems that lacking any particular economic vision, they're not going to be able to deliver the kind of development that everyone's hoping the new government brings, and thus lose favor.

Also it looks like whatever the makeup of the new government, SCAF is going to have already committed to some (in all likelihood) heinous IMF package, which might drastically restrain their options.

El Anansi
Jan 27, 2008

Ham posted:

Final results for the first stage of the Egyptian elections are in:

Freedom and Justice Party (Muslim Brotherhood): 80 Seats (48.2%)
Al-Noor Party (Salafist): 34 Seats (20.5%)
Egyptian Bloc (Liberal): 18 Seats (10.8%)
Al-Wafd Party (Liberal): 12 Seats (7.5%)
Revolution is Ongoing Party (Liberal): 7 Seats (4.2%)
Al-Wasat Party (Liberal Islamic): 4 Seats (2.4%)
Reform and Development Party (Liberal): 2 Seats (1.2%)
Freedom Party (Liberal, Former NDP): 2 Seats (1.2%)
National Egyptian Party (Liberal, Former NDP): 2 Seats (1.2%)
Egyptian Citizen Party (Liberal, Former NDP): 2 Seats (1.2%)
Al-Adl Party (Liberal): 1 Seat (0.6%)
Independents: 2 Seats


So, in total, out of 166 seats:

Islamist = FJP + Al-Noor = 114 Seats (68.7%)
Liberal = Other parties = 50 Seats (30.1%)

There will be reruns for one of the districts in Cairo on 10/11 January.

Second stage of the elections will begin on 14/15 December and will take place in 9 governorates (including mine, Giza.)

Sorry if you've covered this before, Ham, but who're you voting for?

El Anansi
Jan 27, 2008

quote:

“Our approach is not the full-throttle administration approach of delivering all the aid that they wanted to deliver, but rather a measured approach of tying tranches to results as it pertains to the peace treaty with Israel, to cooperation with respect to smuggling [into Gaza] and with respect to economic reforms to guarantee civil rights and the rule of law within Egypt,” he said. “That's the pressure that we're applying.”

Because we all know that the most important impediment to checking police violence and ensuring free and fair elections is, y'know, tariffs. How delightfully transparent.

El Anansi
Jan 27, 2008

That's cool, all this shitshow was missing was a touch of the '77 bread riots. I'm certain this will go over well.

El Anansi
Jan 27, 2008
It's easy to talk about cutting food subsidies in the abstract, but I feel like the consequences are often handwaved away. Food insecurity and malnutrition in Egypt are downright insane even with the subsidies, with something like a fifth of Egyptians being food insecure and a 31% child malnutrition rate. If subsidies are significantly reduced or eliminated, people will die in impressive numbers, and people tend to get distinctly uncivil before starving to death.

El Anansi
Jan 27, 2008

az jan jananam posted:

Speaking of bad reporting, this poster actually says"yes to legitimacy" and not the scarier translation given. I'm assuming incompetence and not malice but still.



Hah I studied in Cairo with Ali back in the day. Definitely not malice, I'll be sure to give him some poo poo for that.

El Anansi
Jan 27, 2008

Volkerball posted:

Yeah, it was a teacher in Benghazi IIRC. Westerners aren't safe in Cairo right now, either. Any time there's demonstrations in Tahrir, there's always a few stories of a tourist being killed in the street.

Eh, it's not as bad as all that here; the rhetoric about westerners has gotten increasingly troubling and unhinged, but in terms of actual physical danger it's easy enough not to get into trouble. As far as I know no one from the States has gotten killed since June, which is just one of two or three since 2011. There's still a fair few expats here, we've just all gotten it into our heads to stay the gently caress out of it whenever things get interesting.

El Anansi
Jan 27, 2008
Kind of a small Egypt story here, but this hits close to home--one of my professors, an expert on political Islam, has had a warrant issued for his arrest for a series of insane charges.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/23/world/middleeast/egypt.html?ref=middleeast

quote:

CAIRO — An internationally respected Egyptian political scientist said Wednesday that prosecutors had filed espionage charges against him, making him the second such scholar targeted this month in a widening crackdown on dissent against last summer’s military takeover.

Emad Shahin, a scholar of political Islam who has taught at Harvard, Notre Dame and the American University in Cairo and edited the Oxford Encyclopedia of Islam and Politics, was charged along with several senior leaders of the Muslim Brotherhood with conspiring with foreign organizations to undermine Egypt’s national security. He is listed as Defendant 33 in a lengthy criminal complaint that also names former President Mohamed Morsi, who was deposed in the takeover.

Dr. Shahin isn't even actually affiliated with the MB, he's just spoken out for their right to political participation. This is an almost ridiculously scattershot approach to suppression, but they clearly mean business.

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El Anansi
Jan 27, 2008
And poo poo's still blowing up. Heard this one from my apartment, even.

http://www.dailynewsegypt.com/2014/01/24/fridays-fourth-bombing-leaves-one-dead/

quote:

An improvised explosive device (IED) exploded in front of Radobis cinema in Haram Street, Giza, at 5.15pm, reported state TV.

The explosion killed one and injured seven at time of writing.

Early morning the Cairo Security Directorate was targeted with a car bomb-leaving four dead and 76 injured- and two separate explosions in Giza happened hours later.

The bombing is the fourth one to take place one day before the 25 January 2011 revolution anniversary.

This is going to be just an awesome week, I tell you what.

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