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Stupid CNN video doesnt give a link to share, but if you search CNN video for "Tensions run high in Tripoli on Eid" you will see the video Im talking about. A bunch of armed, young, unemployed former rebels are demanding money from their commander in Tripoli. And they are MAD at the delay. To some extent I dont blame them, many had to quit their jobs in order to fight for the rebellion. Uniformed militaries get paid for what they do. The rebels most likely were not, they were simply doing what the felt was right and liberating themselves from tyranny. However, now thats it over they have to restart their lives, and at least some compensation is in order for their sacrifices. If this doesnt get resolved fast, Libya is going to turn into a very ugly place once again.. edit: Found the link http://cnn.com/video/?/video/world/2011/11/06/karadshes-libya-somber-eid.cnn
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Nov 6, 2011 22:02
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J33uk posted:Oh man there are a few hints about what'll be in the IAEA report on Iran out there (including China explicitly telling Iran to behave) and ooooh boy. It looks like they're actually trying to develop nuclear weapons. This is going to be a diplomatic clusterfuck Ah yes, its that time of year when the possibility of a Israeli/US attack on Irans nuclear facilities reaches its peak...and then nothing happens. Not that I want anything to, quite the contrary but for years now it seems like we've been on the brink. Although this time there definitely has been a series of events that make it look like it could finally happen: The impending IAEA report that is expected to be pretty damning for Iran Israel testing ballistic missiles that can hit Iran Israel now has mid-air refueling capabalities Israel training for long distance bombing runs in Italy Israel holding drills for missile attacks on the homeland Websites of Mossad/Shin Bet/IDF hacked. (this could have been anyone, possibly Iran, possibly Anonymous) All of the above have happened very recently. But none of this is a smoking gun that an Israeli strike on Iran is imminent. I still dont think it will EVER happen. I think the consequences of such an action are too great for anyone to take it on. And one thing that may or may not be much of a factor is the year end deadline for all US troops to leave Iraq. This may affect Israels ability to fly over Iraq, (if thats the route they choose) but at the same time Iraq wont present as much of a target rich enviroment for Iranian ballistic missiles targetting US forces. Edit: I dont know how much the Israeli-Iranian nuke problem is pertinent to a thread about the Arab Spring. I apologize If Im derailing..
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Nov 7, 2011 01:20
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az jan jananam posted:The Arab League suspended Syria's membership. Lebanon, Yemen and Syria voted against the resolution but (perhaps unexpectedly) Iraq abstained. Yep not too surprising Iraq abstained. Iraq is Irans bitch now. Iran does not want to lose its best buddy in the region, the Assad regime. The Iranian regime has even been advising the Syrians how to put down their uprising using the Iranian perfected model of "slaughter everyone" because, unfortunately, it worked for Iran. Speaking of Iran, Al Jazeera has a good documentary on its website about the current state of the Iranian opposition and what will become of the green revolution: http://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/general/2011/11/2011118122637129536.html
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Nov 12, 2011 18:49
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az jan jananam posted:Were this really the case they would have voted against the resolution, as Hezbollah-dominated Lebanon did. This doesn't show suzerainty, it shows a degree of independence. You might be right, but I think Iraq hasnt fallen completely under the influence of Iran yet. So maybe me saying "Iraq is Irans bitch" right now might be a little too soon. I think a better way to describe it is that Iraq is torn between the influence the US exerts over it, and the influence from Iran. A vote against the Syrian resolution would have probably really pissed off the US, whereas a vote for it would have pissed off Iran, who is increasingly holding more sway over the Shiite dominated government in Baghdad. An abstention was probably the safest route Iraq could have taken without upsetting its allies too much.
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Nov 13, 2011 01:02
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I just saw this on the new: "Pro-Assad crowd attacks Saudi Embassy in Syria" http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/45268111/ns/world_news-mideast_n_africa/#.Tr8OgFa75IE See you ARE allowed to protest in Syria! Just as long as its in support of the dictator.
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Nov 13, 2011 01:28
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I wonder how many of the people attacking the Saudi embassy in Syria are Alawite? Probably most if not all. It makes me think that is Assad falls, Syria will be an ugly place for the Alawite population as they will probably suffer a lot of payback from the majority Sunni population. Not that I dont want Assad to hang for his crimes but I think a post-Assad syria wont be a much better place.
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Nov 13, 2011 02:22
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ThePutty posted:It takes time for countries to heal, both socially and physically. But saying Syria would be better off with Assad? The man who is ordering his men to kill everything that moves on the streets, that tortures anything they capture to death, that has killed 3500 people in the last 200 days? Really? Woh woh slow down there, I never said I think Syria would be better off with Assad. Maybe you missed the part where I said he should hang? After all, there's no guarantee Syria will turn into a sectarian bloodbath after Assad. It may not have a very rough transition at all, but they only chance they have for a positive future is to overthrow the regime.
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Nov 13, 2011 09:44
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ZoneManagement posted:I've never seen a thread this long. I'm a little confused about this issue, could anyone give me a summary? Have you seriously not watched the news at all this year? I don't mean to sound like a jerk but its pretty hard to miss what's been going on in the middle east even if you turn on the news for 5 minutes.
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Nov 13, 2011 09:50
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Im hearing some small arms fire on the live stream. It will probably pick up at daylight  Anyone remember the webcams that were set up in Gaza during Operation Cast Lead in 09? There is nothing more unsettling than watching a live war on your computer....
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Feb 11, 2012 17:50
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If Saudi Arabian protests get to the level of the other Arab Spring protests and the kingdom resorts to violence its going to put the US in a really precarious position. Its one thing when an enemy government like Syria or Libya starts killing its own people, but when its a "friendly" government thats something completely different. Just look at Bahrain for example. you didnt hear a peep out of the US when the protests and killings happened there. Albeit Bahrain is a much smaller country and the intensity of the protests wasnt like that of Egpyt. But if large protests break out in Saudi Arabia what will the US do? If the kingdom massacres its people theres no way the US or NATO is going to get militarily involved. However on the flipside of the coin it might be easier to deal with. Being such close friends of SA we have quite a bit of leverage, similar to Egpyt. We sell a lot of arms to SA, and we are a good friend to have when you have an enemy like Iran. So if we see Egypt style protests in SA, then we may see an Egypt style resolution to them. Not that thats a perfect resolution, but much better than what happened in Libya or Syria.
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Feb 11, 2012 18:16
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the live feed is back on: http://bambuser.com/v/2361847 Im hearing more gunfire and some of the explosions are starting to sound pretty close to where this camera is located. God, this is creepy. Reminds me of the Gaza webcams back in 09 so much.
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Feb 12, 2012 08:13
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Heres a few of my theories as to why we (the US/NATO etc) are trying so hard not to get involved militarily in Syria to stop the bloodshed. 1: The situation in Syria, while its been going on for almost a year, really kind of came out of nowhere much like the rest of the Arab Spring. Meanwhile, I think our military/intelligence community knew for some time that this was probably the year that something would have to be done about the Iranian nuclear program. Thus military assets have already been planned for that operation and the situation in Syria is throwing a huge monkey wrench in those plans. Even if Israel goes on its own and bombs Iran, we are most likely going to get involved regardless. 2. The situation in Libya might be leaving a sour taste in NATOs mouth and they might be leery of trying a similar operation in Syria. If Libya gets any worse, or becomes an all out civil war it will definitely look really bad for NATO. Sure, they took out a brutal dictator but they opened a pandoras box of chaos in the process. And in Syria if the regime falls you might see a Alawite/Christian genocide by the Sunni majority. 3. War fatigue. Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, drones operations in Yemen, Pakistan and Somalia. A very probable strike in Iran. Does Obama really want to open yet another front? No matter now badly it might be needed? And with the terrorists already claiming we are at war with the Muslim world it sure does start to look like it after a while when we have attacked so many muslim countries. Not that I dont think the majority of those attacks are justified.
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Feb 12, 2012 21:52
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VanSandman posted:You forgot some important reasons. It would be a huge clusterfuck because A. Syria has a far better military than Iraq did and would definately not just roll over in the event of UN/US intervention. B. Russia and Iran would love to supply weapons in such a situation to make any peace mission difficult or impossible, especially if it left the US with a black eye. C. Syria itself is an internal clusterfuck and there's no way we'd be able to keep peace even if we knocked out Assad. Yeah good points definitely. And Syrias military is WAY better than Libyas was. I think thats part of the reason NATO was so willing to bomb them, they knew it was possible to do it with little to no casualties. Plus Libya didnt have too many friends left in the world by the time the uprising started. At least not friends that were willing to try to defend them. Another thing is, theres no real base of operations for the free syrian army. Theres no Benghazi in Syria. Certainly some of the cities like Homs, Hama, and Daraa are mostly outside of government control now but also they are under heavy siege.
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Feb 12, 2012 22:42
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Is there any word on whos doing the protesting in Saudi Arabia? Is it the Sunnis or is it like Bahrain where the Shiites were mainly the ones protesting? If its the Sunnis protesting in Saudi Arabia then thats a pretty big problem for the kingdom because they cant just say its a pissed off minority protesting them like in Bahrain.
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Feb 12, 2012 23:28
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Looks like someone finally got some pics of the Syrian UAVs http://www.osgeoint.blogspot.com/2012/02/syria-uav-captured-on-video-over-kafr.html The pics arent the greatest quality, but the UAVs in the pic do bear a striking resemblence to the Israeli Heron UAV http://www.israeli-weapons.com/weapons/aircraft/uav/heron/Heron.html I remember reading about Israel selling these UAVs to Russia. (Genius move there Israel...) so perhaps this is some evidence of Russia giving them to Syria. Or maybe Russia is operating them? Or Iran? Who knows. But there has been a lot of talk about Syria using UAVs for artillery targetting in cities like Homs and Hama.
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Feb 25, 2012 21:02
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I was driving through downtown Phoenix today and happened upon a Anti-Assad rally. Lots of Syrian Republic flags and banners. One stuck out to me it said "President Assad is a doctor. He has a PHD in genocide!" Or something like that. Most of the people looked to be arab, probably with family members over there in Syria. I honked my horn and waved at them. The sad thing is, probably most of the people driving past them have no idea what they are protesting about
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Feb 26, 2012 02:29
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Found this video today of a Syrian Hind flying over Daraa http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=CGOeiPe_8C8
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Feb 26, 2012 03:07
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Is there any consensus as to whether the Syrian regime is using or has used aircraft of any kind (fixed wing or helicopter) against demonstrators? Ive seen videos where residents of besieged cities claim to have been attacked by aircraft but thats not exactly concrete evidence. I posted a video of that Hind over Daraa earlier, but it wasnt attacking anything and may simply have been passing over the area. I feel like if the regime was smart they wouldnt use aircraft because that would give the international community more ammunition to enact a no fly zone. Syria probably learned a lesson from the Libyan conflict.
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Feb 26, 2012 08:12
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Dodoman posted:Heh people in the UAE give no fucks. As long as people are making money and the shops are open, no one will complain. UAE is the definition of apathy. So the UAE is like the USA of the middle east huh?
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Feb 26, 2012 19:39
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Dodoman posted:Socio-economically pretty much. The rich keep on getting richer and the poor get more hosed every year. The middle class is better off though - there's a chance to climb up the ladder (if you know the right people Well I meant more like the UAE is like the US in the "We dont give a drat what happens in the rest of the world" way. And Im not saying that the government of either country doesnt give a drat (although in the case of Syria its increasingly looking that way) but that the people dont care or simply dont know. It is surprising that the UAE doesnt seem to care too much, given how close it is to Syria and Iran. What is the sectarian makeup of UAE is it mostly sunni?
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Feb 26, 2012 20:21
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). Even if you remain middle class you'll be mostly happy, especially now that the housing bubble has collapsed so rents have normalised.
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Sil posted:His idea is wrong but he's moving in the right direction. More serious pressure needs to be put on Syria and if the consensus in the West shifts towards military force it might shove Russia into stepping in themselves and getting Assad to accept an out. Part of the problem is that when theres anything going on in the world, Mccain wants us to start bombing. Remember, this is the "bomb bomb bomb Iran" guy. Theres not a war this guy (one of my senators ugh) doesnt want. So his credibility internationally is probably a little diminished, since he ALWAYS wants to go to war.
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Mar 6, 2012 04:54
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I dont have a problem with Libya splitting up into semi autonomous entities, but I just have a really bad feeling its not going to happen without a lot of violence. Yes, Ive read what others have said here that its not guaranteed to devolve into a civil war but I have a really cynical view of that part of the world. I just think, theres so many weapons and everyones armed, political power is up for grabs now that Ghaddafi is gone, most of the oil is concentrated in one area, and people arent exactly used to the country being separated. Its been quite a while since it was like that. It kind of reminds me of Sudan, and how it took a civil war for the south to split off and now theres still fighting going on and most of the oil is in the southern half. I hope Im wrong about all of this, I hope for the best in Libya but I wont be too surprised if it gets really ugly over there again in the near future.
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Mar 7, 2012 01:00
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What that soldier did was horrible, and I hope he gets a proper punishment. What really worries me though is whats going to happen now. After the Koran burning there was something like 6 or 9 US soldiers who got murdered, some by members of the ANA. I am really scared now for any US troops who have to work in close coordination with ANA in the next few days. And I also think we need an Afghanistan thread. I think this thread is starting to become a general "Middle East/Southeast Asia is chaotic" thread.
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Mar 11, 2012 20:52
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I think its more realistic to say that the Afghan people just want to live in peace and security like the rest of us. They had a decade of war in the 80s when the soviets invaded, and then that was followed by the Afghan civil war which brought the Taliban to power in the country. And as much as an inconveniet truth it might be for a lot of Americans, once the Taliban had control there was relative peace in the country. Peace that was maintained in a very brutal way (beheadings, public executions, stonings etc) along with repression of women and strict sharia law but nonetheless many Afghans preferred it over the non stop warfare of the past. So to say that Afghans want to live under a religious extremist dictatorship is really only half true. Thats just the only kind of peace any of them have known.
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Mar 12, 2012 00:18
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Xandu posted:At what point can we start talking about what is happening in Syria as ethnic cleansing instead of just sectarian fighting? I dont think its ethnic cleansing. If I remember correctly, Sunnis make up the vast majority of the population in Syria. So if the Alawites that control the upper echelons of the political and military institutions want to ethnically cleanse the country then they are going to have to kill millions upon millions. What I think they are doing is basically trying to kill enough people to make the citizens give up protesting/fighting back against the government. Syrias best friend Iran has shown that you really can crack down hard enough on protests to come out on top and Im sure they are taking that course of action under some assistance from Iran. Not to mention, Syria already got away with it once 30 years ago. They knew the lack of action the international community took back then so Im sure they feel as though they can do it again and unfortunately its looking like they are right in that assessment.
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Mar 12, 2012 05:49
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Warbadger posted:This one got taken down, anybody find a rehost? I too would like to see that video. If it indeed shows an "anti tank missile" that might mean those arms are finally getting to the rebels from Qatar or Saudi Arabia. If its just an rpg, well the rebels already have those.
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Mar 17, 2012 07:08
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Justin Credible posted:I watched the video before it got taken down, and it was the same launcher as the video 'Destroying an aircraft' ( http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9qKQhQ73xi8 ) that Brown Moses posted. In both it appeared to be a Metis, a Russian anti-tank guided missile. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/9K115_Metis Yeah you are right thats what it looks like. I wonder where they got it? I wouldnt be surprised if the Syrian army used that missile, maybe with all the defections somehow it found its way into rebel hands. Or maybe a foreign country supplied it?
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Mar 18, 2012 03:10
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Xandu posted:http://www.youtube.com/watch?&v=LVHbcE7Sw5k Ive read lots of reports of helicopters being used by the regime and have seen videos of helicopters flying around but thats the first video Ive seen of a helicopter firing weapons. It looks like a doorgunner firing randomly. And theres return fire towards the end. Pretty crazy stuff. I think in the beginning of the uprising the regime was a bit hesitant to use any aircraft for fear of the UN or NATO using it as a reason to implement a no fly zone over Syria like they did in Libya. But now that it is obvious the international community is going to do nothing about the situation Im sure the regime probably feels much more emboldened to handle it how they want and we will probably see more use of aircraft in the near future.
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Mar 24, 2012 19:28
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I know that the general consensus in regards to Syria is that eventually Assad is going to lose. He might end up leaving the country, or possibly even killed. When this will happen is anyones guess. But is it really out of the question to think that Assad can make it through this uprising? At this point it seems like he has the upper hand. He still commands a loyal following especially in the capital and among the Alawite minority. The military still appears to be mostly behind him despite all the defections. The opposition is not well developed and unified both on the military and political fronts. And the international community is dead set against intervention. Unless Assad was to do something completely stupid, like use chemical weapons against civilians/rebels, I think the international community will stay out of it. The conflict may come to a stalemate or the regime might mount a massive operation in multiple areas that will cripple the FSA and wind down the conflict once and for all. 30,000+ people might die, and Syria will be even more of a international pariah for many years but its certainly possible in my opinion that the Arab Spring might hit a dead end in Syria. Not that I want that though, I am no Assad supporter. And if you think its not possible, just remember that Bashar Assads father Hafez Assad got away with killing an estimated 30,000 people in Homs back in 1982. The situation was somewhat different but it does show that you can kill enough people to put down a movement.
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Mar 27, 2012 01:53
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Shageletic posted:The massacre in Hama in 1982 took place between February 2-28. 26 days, to crush an armed resistance and cow an entire nation. It's intent was to sow fear, and stop any and all resistance. Oh I totally agree they were dissimilar situations. The Hama massacre (I mistakenly said Homs in my previous post) was against an already present organized opposition (the Muslim Brotherhood) so in a way, it had slightly more legitimacy as opposed to just attacking protestors. Not to mention in 1982, things like youtube and facebook didnt exist to get the word out in areas that journalists were prevented from entering. This kept the Hama massacre largely off the international news outlets at the time. But in only a few weeks, the regime killed many more people than they have for the whole year that the new uprising has been occuring. Estimates of 17k-40k people killed in 3 weeks is the kind of thing that can put an end to an uprising. But if they tried something like that today NATO would be bombing them tomorrow. The way bashar assad is approaching this crackdown may be a bit different than the way his father did in 82, but so far he has been able to keep outsiders from intervening in a meaningful way. And he may be able to keep it that way and ride this thing out. The 09 protests in Iran are a good example of a regime that was able to put down an uprising with violence and stay in power and in time lose some of the isolation that came from the crackdown.
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Mar 27, 2012 03:00
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something original posted:Turkish army unit there says three Syrians were caught trying to enter a refugee camp near Hatay while carrying explosive belts. They were identified by only their initials. They searched the whole camp but found no other explosives. Three top Syrian generals who defected are staying at that camp. This is some serious stuff but I think the officials are not playing incidents like this up because they don't want to push things past the point of no return and there isn't any international cooperation for intervention yet. Or for other reasons I don't know. Im confused by this. So was it 3 syrians sent by the syrian regime into the camp with explosive belts to kill the 3 syrian defectors? Or were the 3 syrians caught THE defectors?
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Mar 29, 2012 04:03
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zero alpha posted:^^ Unfortunately the right-wing blowhards were right about that one, too. They've been screaming about MB since the day protests broke out against Mubarak. If Im not mistaken, I think leftist ideology was what quite a few arab dictators have subscrided to over the years? I think Nasser and Sadat had somewhat socialist views. And I know that the Syrian and Iraqi baath parties were basically socialist parties. Saddam Hussein was known as quite the socialist in the 80s. Iraq had an oil financed education and healthcare system and was actually one of the more modern societies in the middle east before they invaded Kuwait. Again, Im just going off memory here and could be wrong.
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Mar 31, 2012 22:44
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Nenonen posted:It's a good reminder of how quick the poo poo can hit the fan in Africa. The way there's really no observed borders in Saharan Africa and African national borders have no bearing to ethnic or clan relations means that armed conflicts can and will quickly spill out over the entire region because even a slight influx of heavy arms can change the military balance in a poor country like Mali. I don't think it will stop there, either, unless those arms coming from Libya are somehow taken out of the market. Ahh yes, decolonization is like the gift that keeps giving!
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Apr 3, 2012 06:02
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So I believe the deadline for violence to stop in Syria is the 12th? So I wonder what happens when the regime doesnt stop shelling by then? I dont think the UN has made any kind of warning about consequences if things go on like they are past the 12th. My guess is the violence will continue. The UN/Kofi Annan will make a few more attempts at diplomacy. Attempts that will fail. I dont think the international community is going to do anything militarily no matter what. My prediction is eventually Turkey is going to get fed up with what will most likely be an accelerating influx of refugees and intervene in Syria, creating buffer zones in the country. Of course Turkey may not have the stomach for this but I think if anyone is going into Syria militarily it will be them.
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Apr 6, 2012 07:30
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I think its quite possible that maybe after 10 or 20 more laughable peace plans we might see Turkey intervene in Syria. Especially if there are more cross border incidents like what happened today. I think if Turkey was to get involved militarily they would have to do it with NATO backing and support. But if anyone should do it it should be them. They want to be the leading power in that region, and increasingly that is what they are becoming. They are one of the most civilized, prosperous, and democratic Muslim countries in the area and they need to put some of this newfound clout to good use. Theres a massacre happening right next door, and refugees are flowing into Turkey by the thousands. The other countries in the region are turning a blind eye to it, as is to be expected from fellow dictatorships. The west is trying not to get involved. Probably from too many bad experiences with humanitarian intervention, just look at whats happened in Libya. Not to mention a fellow muslim country like Turkey invading on humanitarian grounds kind of ruins any plans the Assad regime had for using the "EVIL NATO/INFIDEL/CRUSADER/COLONIALIST INVADERS ARE HERE TO TAKE OUR OIL/DESTROY OUR MUSLIM RELIGION/FORCE WESTERN IDEALS UPON US!" card. And Im not exactly sure how these "buffer zones" are supposed to work out but it seems like its almost inevitable that it is a tactic that will need to be used at some point.
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Apr 10, 2012 05:34
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Is it possible that if theres another security council resolution China and Russia will abstain from voting on it instead of voting no? And if that happens does that basically pass the resolution?
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Apr 11, 2012 01:28
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something original posted:I was kind of surprised to see that most mainstream Turkish newspapers put Erdoğan's warning to Assad (which came after the border shooting incident) on their front pages. Thats really surprising considering the Syrian crisis is happening right next door and it is the potentially the biggest military challenge Turkey will be (possibly) facing in quite some time should they choose to intervene. I think keeping it off the front pages all this time really shows just how much they have been trying to keep it off the minds of the Turkish people. The more public pressure the Turkish government faces to intervene the stronger the possibility of it happening.
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Apr 11, 2012 06:13
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zero alpha posted:So absent third-party intervention, is it safe to say that the Syrian conflict is more or less over? The Syrian government is not going to abide by the cease fire. No one expects them to. They havent even shown any signs of pulling back heavy weapons yet, like they were supposed to have started doing by now. So no, this conflict is most likely going to get much worse before its over. Where it goes after the 12th is the big question. And how Russia and China react to any further UN security council resolutions also is a big question. Assad has lost the patience of the west long ago, but now he might be losing the patience of his allies.
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Apr 12, 2012 01:50
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So I was thinking, I bet the Syrian regime can start shelling again at pretty much any point and say "The terrorists attacked us! They broke the cease fire!" and the UN wouldnt have much way of a way to verify thats what actually happened. At least not until observers are on the ground. If the regime doesnt make it impossible for them to get there in the first place. Of course theres also the possibility that the rebels really will attack the regime troops during the cease fire. The rebels/FSA are so disorganized and some elements might try to provoke the regime in the hopes that it will be seen by the UN as a violation of the ceasefire and hastening any possible foreign intervention. So I guess what Im really saying is this cease fire could be used by either side to achieve whatever goals they have in mind.
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Apr 14, 2012 06:47
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Lascivious Sloth posted:As a side note, I do update the OP every couple of months or so with what is going on. Thats because there is literally no other measure left to take against the Assad regime except for military action. Which NO ONE wants to do. They did the sanctions, they did the "cease fire", there are monitors on the ground, and throughout all of this the shelling continues. Arming the opposition seems dicey at best, and many major powers are afraid to do it for various reasons. Can you imagine being the American or UK government arming people you know may have been insurgents in Iraq fighting coalition soldiers? Its very possible, many Syrians went there for "jihad". And the regime knows no one is going to use their military against him so why would they feel need to stop shelling?
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Apr 24, 2012 02:07
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