|
If Assad wins he will brutally crack down on any opposition and it will be very ugly, but at least it's very unlikely that there will be sectarian-based genocide. Assad can't afford that. Syria is a Sunni majority nation. If Islamists win on the other hand...
|
#
¿
Jun 11, 2013 17:19
|
|
|
|
| # ¿ Apr 29, 2024 05:33 |
|
|
Tias posted:That's just not true. It wasn't often the west, but there's a well-known history of purging socialists by way of murder, torture and life in jail many places in the middle east. I don't think az jan denied that, just that it wasn't the result of imperialist intervention. So you both agree with each other.
|
|
#
¿
Jun 12, 2013 14:37
|
|
|
Saint Celestine posted:I wasn't aware Iran had much of a reputation to begin with... The world is not America.
|
|
#
¿
Jun 14, 2013 13:32
|
|
|
Pieter posted:
This can't happen. Those two countries are not comparable.
|
|
#
¿
Jun 19, 2013 13:11
|
|
|
Pieter posted:Sure it's unlikely, but I think you would have said the same about Iran in 1979. Those that went out on the streets didn't get what they wished for, and Iranian history din't predict such an outcome either. I'm not talking about likelihoods. I said it can't happen, period, because the situation is entirely different. Iranian history did in fact had a history of clergy largely independent and separate from the government and from 20th century on they led the opposition against the absolutist monarchs. They capitalized on that and only they had the resources and the means to reconstruct Iranian society according to their (already existing) religious doctrines. What does MB have in comparison? Just the popular support of rural conservative masses and their party organization. Even if they wanted to turn Egypt into a theocratic republic they wouldn't know where or how to begin.
|
|
#
¿
Jun 19, 2013 14:34
|
|
|
Ham posted:Morsi is going nuts on a live televised speech right now, naming specific people that oppose him criminals, including prominent businessmen, the Mubarak era prime minister that opposed him in the second stage of yhe elections, and blaming the drop in tourism on satellite channels that emphasize Egypt's real problems. Very unsophisticated speech using extremely simple language. Noooo, Morsi! You weren't supposed to take that page from Erdogan. I've read Egypt is ready to explode these days and economic situation is getting worse and worse every day. Where can I learn more about what's going on over there?
|
|
#
¿
Jun 26, 2013 22:48
|
|
|
OwlBot 2000 posted:Where the hell is Sabahi? Last I heard of him was in December. Seconding this. Does he have a strong support? He seems like a solid guy from my perspective.
|
|
#
¿
Jun 26, 2013 22:55
|
|
|
There seems to be a lot of Black Bloc actions in Egypt these days and I mean the usual black clothing and gas masks and molotovs and everything. Who are they? Is anarchism on the rise on Egypt?
|
|
#
¿
Jun 27, 2013 00:21
|
|
|
McDowell posted:So it could be overtones of the French Revolution (where killing the king, whose authority was supposedly God-given, threw ideas of authority and religion into chaos) Uh it's kinda the opposite. Mubarak regime was largely secular with socially conservative policies here and there but ultimately they were opponents of Islamism. I bet this is just the previously unspoken convictions bubbling up to the surface. Coming out as an atheist is always a risky move and you didn't have a particular reason for doing so in Mubarak era. But when a terribly incompetent government claims legitimacy by being Islamic and try to impose their values down upon your throat, it gives a drat good reason for people to stop and say "hey wait a minute, I'm not Muslim!"
|
|
#
¿
Jun 27, 2013 01:58
|
|
|
Egypt is hosed. There is nothing MB can offer to their opponents as the situation in the country is out of their control. Cover your eyes and hope for the best result when it's over. 
|
|
#
¿
Jun 28, 2013 17:47
|
|
|
Ham posted:The MB/Islamists have one huge demonstration in Madinet Nasr, close to the anti protest at the Ministry of Defence. The rhetoric is swiftly descending into secularism vs. Islamism. This is very, very dangerous rhetoric and as far as I understand it's exactly what MB would want as this is their last hope to maintain some control. I really hoped the seculars wouldn't have fallen for this trap. Still I'm very interested to hear your opinion on this as we are going through the same kind of thing here in Turkey.
|
|
#
¿
Jun 28, 2013 17:54
|
|
|
The Biggest Jerk posted:What exactly are the main factions opposed to the MB? Secularists and extreme hardliner Islamists? Or are most people protesting just pissed off at quality of life right now? Yes.
|
|
#
¿
Jun 30, 2013 22:14
|
|
|
Volkerball posted:It's actually better than immediate elections. The head of the court is going to become the acting prime minister for a year to 18 months while they establish the new legal framework for the government. Then elections can happen instead of rushing into them like they did with Morsi/Shafiq. This reminds me of the US overthrowing the Articles of Confederation and then creating the Constitution. They learned from the mistakes of their trial run, and now they can do things right. And meanwhile during those 18 months the economic situation will continue to deteriorate with no decisive action taken.
|
|
#
¿
Jul 3, 2013 20:27
|
|
|
Xandu posted:The Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood was founded in 1928. It's not going to go down easily. What I'm wondering how they are going to react to this in the long term. It's not like they can just blame the military for betrayal. Millions were out there against them too. I can easily see them disillusioned with democratic methods and hold a huge part of population in contempt, which would be a real shame.
|
|
#
¿
Jul 4, 2013 08:05
|
|
|
Vernii posted:And this is probably its high water mark. They were the prime opposition to Mubarak and now more Egyptians turned out against it than they did him. Going legitimate and building political machinery means that there are inevitably going to be lists of organization members and supporters, and if they start making trouble those lists are going to get used to hunt them down. I think you may be overestimating the damage Morsi government has done to MB's public image. I'd expect them to still have millions of sympathizers. We never hear from the rural poor for example. What are they thinking about this?
|
|
#
¿
Jul 4, 2013 08:09
|
|
|
Once again Turkey's experience can be illuminating here: When the governing Islamist party Refah and DYP was overthrown by a military memorandum after a series of protests and corruption allegations, the military went hard after the Islamists and imprisoned some of their leaders. After years of repression, Refah's old guard was split into two camps: the more hardline Saadet and the moderate AKP. AKP's Erdogan came to power by claiming he was changed and was not following Refah's program anymore. He obtained the biggest electoral victories in decades. But it turned out, Erdogan was simply playing it much smarter and cautiously consolidated his power and weaken the military before he put his Islamist(or social conservative if you'd prefer) agenda on motion. Of course Egypt and Turkey are very different and their Islamists are different too but I do not believe this will definitely be the end of MB's democratic aspirations. Perhaps we are going to see a split with the hardcore types joining the salafists. fspades fucked around with this message at 09:01 on Jul 4, 2013 |
|
#
¿
Jul 4, 2013 08:59
|
|
|
ReindeerF posted:This is the big split I've seen in other examples, not just here. International debate is focused on what it can see and understand, which is cities, English-speaking educated people, local media and any diaspora. The on-the-ground reality tends to involve a massive rural and/or underclass that has completely different views than these people which you almost never hear on international TV or read in international media. If you do, it's usually some reporter that manages to get a three-minute spot on interviewing a farmer or something, followed by another thirty minute debate between someone from the CFR and an academic from Cairo or whatever. Yeah, this is what I'm seeing too and it's worrying me. On the other hand all economic indicators point out rural poor are not doing so well either. Maybe they too have an objection to Morsi.
|
|
#
¿
Jul 4, 2013 09:28
|
|
|
Antwan3K posted:Yeah, it's really weird to see someone be so adamantly certain the military will side with democrats. How can anyone be so certain about anything in the future? Revolutions are open-ended events. By definition the situation is open to a lot of possibilities, from radicalisation to bonapartism... Yeah, but let me say I have a hunch that an organization that has a big stake in Egyptian economy and dominated Mubarak-era politics probably does not have the best intentions for democracy or anything else that can possibly threaten their privileged position.
|
|
#
¿
Jul 4, 2013 13:06
|
|
|
suboptimal posted:While I hate austerity programs, El Baredai does have a point- the country is loving broke as all hell and their heavily subsidized bread and fuel programs aren't sustainable given the economic situation there. Don't be naive. "Austerity" here means the country's elite looting everything which isn't nailed down and running away with the money. El Baredei is perfect for that job. When this 18 months of transitionary period is over the next government will find out every state enterprise is gone and those IMF loans and international aid has somehow gone into somebody's pocket and there is no way to bring them to justice. I'm so, so angry and disappointed with Sabahi and his supporters right now. How could they have fallen for this?
|
|
#
¿
Jul 7, 2013 19:01
|
|
|
Xandu posted:These two things go together far more than you might imagine. I know. Who do you think would benefit the most for selling them to highest bidder? Egypt is hosed for the foreseeable future and they know it. No need to stand around and wait for public reaction to turn against them. They will take the money and run.
|
|
#
¿
Jul 7, 2013 19:08
|
|
|
az jan jananam posted:Just because Sabbahi is a leftist doesn't make him any less a cynical hypocrite. A social democrat, right when the working class needs him the most, turns his back on them. Some habits die hard, I guess.
|
|
#
¿
Jul 7, 2013 19:20
|
|
|
az jan jananam posted:Is anti-Arab sentiment a thing in Turkish discourse? I know there are reports like this showing Turks tend to hold anti-Arab attitudes so their accommodation of the Syrians has been really surprising. You can find some anti-Arab sentiment from more secular types as anything associated with traditional Sunni Islam is brushed off as "Arab culture." And of course some people still blame Arabs for "stabbing them in the back" during WW1. However the issue here is not that. Many Turks perceive the government as fanning the flames in Syria over an issue where Turkey had no business to be involved. Relations between Syria and Turkey was close and friendly before these events but Erdogan and Davutoglu took a huge risk in supporting the rebels and alienated Assad regime with no possible recourse. If their imperialist ambitions backfires and it turns out it costed the public billions of dollars and a formerly friendly neighbour it's going to look pretty bad for them. I doubt Erdogan's actions over Syria has much support these days besides his die-hard fans. There are also some rumors of increasing tensions between the refugees and the locals but it's hard to find anything concrete on Turkish media.
|
|
#
¿
Jul 19, 2013 17:40
|
|
|
OwlBot 2000 posted:When does revolution 3.0 kick off, now? Probably never. As the large majority of Egyptians seems to be happy to go back to military rule.
|
|
#
¿
Jul 27, 2013 08:14
|
|
|
Jut posted:Peaceful protesters don't come to a protest with small arms and molotovs as was the case a month ago. Peaceful protesters don't drag a child froma car and give them a beating, and peaceful protesters don't throw people off the roof of a building. Straight out of a repressive regimes handbook. "Some of them were throwing molotovs. Ergo, they are all troublemakers and security forces were right to gun them down." Much more violent things happened during protests that ousted Mubarak. At some point people were burning down police stations and forming armed patrol gangs in neighborhoods. Would you have been cheerleading then too if army gunned down hundreds of people?
|
|
#
¿
Jul 27, 2013 16:55
|
|
|
Negerlepper posted:It looks like Syrian forces... You can say much about Al Qaida, but they seem to try to have a literal interpretation of Islam, and execution by fire is explicitly forbidden in hadith and is considered a affront to God. (like 'playing God' and judging people to the fire, that is explicitly forbidden. That is also one of the rulings that gives the reason why it is forbidden to willfully set houses on fire during war in Islamic military jurisprudence.) If it is really Al Nusra, then someone is probably going to get in trouble for breaking the laws of Sharia. Maybe... When will you learn jihadis and AQ-types don't give two shits about Islamic jurisprudence? You have a very romantic and naive view of jihadis and Islam as well. Anyway, this was being reported in Turkish media too. If this is getting attention from not just pro-PKK sources but also from Turkish and Iranian press, then you know it's true and it's very bad. During the 02 August attacks they reported around 50 civilian casualties and 200 hostages in Rojava. Now firatnews is saying the fighting is centered around the town of Kobani and YPG has retaken control of several villages. fspades fucked around with this message at 04:13 on Aug 8, 2013 |
|
#
¿
Aug 8, 2013 04:09
|
|
|
dinoputz posted:
It sounds like bullshit to me, or at least he should specify which "Kurds" and which "Sunnis" he is talking about. The Iraqi Kurdistan is an autonomous region at this point but Barzani and the Peshmerga has little to do with PKK and their Syrian franchise PYD. If Barzani wanted to supply weapons to PYD, I doubt he would have any trouble but why would he? Meanwhile Turkish government and PKK are on ceasefire at the moment which allows both parties to direct their resources to Syria. Perhaps PKK is trying to transfer its weapons from Qandil to Syria and that's what war nerd is talking about. edit: Though it must be noted Iraqi Kurdistan threatened Al Nusra with intervention after these recent events. A senior government official of theirs told in an interview border units were "ready" for the order. edit of edit: And here is a little something. This video allegedly shows YPG's five new tanks(captured on 6 August) which previously belonged to Syrian army: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3xtEWz42N4U fspades fucked around with this message at 23:34 on Aug 8, 2013 |
|
#
¿
Aug 8, 2013 23:12
|
|
|
Aurubin posted:Christ man NOBODY likes the Kurds. I was young when the US invaded Iraq and I first heard about the ethnic group, it took the Syrian Civil War to really make me understand just how splintered of a group they are. To me it draws parallels with the history of Jewish minorities in Europe and the Middle East; only this time there's no Ottoman Empire to take them in. Poor bastards. I have a feeling YPG will handle Al Nusra easily. They seem to be well trained and well armed, have knowledge of the geography and have the support of the local population, especially after the recent massacres. They got this.
|
|
#
¿
Aug 10, 2013 03:38
|
|
|
RandomPauI posted:
That's crazy! It doesn't sound like something a US politician would do.
|
|
#
¿
Aug 11, 2013 05:21
|
|
|
Ofc. Sex Robot BPD posted:Now we're talking hindsight. Was the coup d'état justified at the time it occurred? Did Morsi need removed? Anybody who were paying attention and not blinded by some secularism vs. Islamism narrative knew this coup was an opportunistic power grab by the military the moment it happened. Regardless of their flaws and anti-democratic tendencies, Muslim Brotherhood was the only entity in Egypt that could have threatened military's and the feloul's entrenched privileges. They couldn't tolerated that, so they used popular outrage against them as a pretext to get rid of them permanently and getting their decades of oligarchic rule back on track after this Arab Spring business. It's simple as that.
|
|
#
¿
Aug 15, 2013 19:36
|
|
|
OwlBot 2000 posted:They didn't, though. The military, police force, media, business, etc. were still stuffed with feloul. They were not revolutionary in the least. Keep in mind, I was very supportive of Morsi's efforts to remove Mubarak appointees from the courts, etc., even when others were calling his move "undemocratic", so I don't dislike the MB on principle or anything. I totally agree with that. What I'm stressing is that they had the potential. But I think they too was fooled by their own "seculars vs. Islamists" narrative and thought they could have changed the cultural landscape of the country in a conservative fashion. They thought they could have shared power with the old elite when the old elite still regarded them as illegitimate upstarts and was ready to backstab them in their first moment of weakness.
|
|
#
¿
Aug 15, 2013 22:10
|
|
|
Just The Facts posted:Agreed. I am in no way pro Egyptian military, just anti MB. Should the military not allow open elections as soon as the dust settles the US should cut off all aid immediately; sanctions following soon after. You are not thinking this thoroughly. Let's say military eventually allowed open elections. What do these current events is saying for the prospective government? "We allow you to play your little democracy game for now but the moment you touch us and our interests we are going to overthrow you, imprison your leaders and murder your supporters in cold-blood." How could you expect a government to truly act in people's interests in that situation?
|
|
#
¿
Aug 18, 2013 09:21
|
|
|
ReV VAdAUL posted:The problem is that while Morsi acted in a dictatorial manner it falls flat as an excuse for even more dictatorial behaviour. Him issuing an edict so as to become dictator He never did that. Don't play into this bullshit false equivalency crap. What he did was to give him himself more executive powers to bypass the old-regime infested judiciary which in hindsight does not seem to be a bad idea! You can cry Hitler all day long. Matter of the fact is Morsi government was much more democratic than what came before and what came after. Jut posted:And I ask again, given the size of the crowds in July, what should the military have done? You mean if they had an interest in respecting democratic process? Do not get involved and let the police and law system handle the rioters. Oh, I have a better idea! How about this: Do not actively undermine Morsi's government and national economy so things don't get that far. And who the gently caress says the military has to get involved due to protests? Would you be enthusiastic if the military couped Obama after some Tea Party marches? fspades fucked around with this message at 11:58 on Aug 18, 2013 |
|
#
¿
Aug 18, 2013 11:48
|
|
|
Zeroisanumber posted:Turkey went through a similar period of civilian rule with the military maintaining institutional independence and occasionally overthrowing a government to protect its own interests. Granted, there's no one like Ataturk dedicated to setting up a modern, democratic state in Egypt today, but that doesn't mean that a civilian government answerable to both the people and the military can't transition to become a more complete democracy in the future. It's very ironic you are mentioning that because you might have heard just a few weeks ago top former military generals were indicted with charges of conspiracy to overthrow the government along with some journalists and intellectuals whose only crime was being critical of the government. It took an authoritarian government with no respect for the due process or free speech to break the military and the deep state. So is Turkey more democratic now? No, only a group of anti-democratic oligarchs were replaced by another group of anti-democratic oligarchs. A coup does that. They create authoritarian constitutions. The instruments and the laws Erdogan exploits to marginalize the opposition are the very same instruments and laws the military junta created 30 years ago for the same purpose! Muslim Brotherhood tried to emulate AKP's success but they were less politically savvy and their circumstances were more hostile. They tried to do things too soon and alienated the public too early. They paid for that and now their opportunity is gone. Now the only hope for Egypt to have a relatively more democratic and egalitarian future is a total social revolution backed by the working class. Elections won't achieve anything at least for another generation. fspades fucked around with this message at 17:42 on Aug 18, 2013 |
|
#
¿
Aug 18, 2013 17:30
|
|
|
Zeroisanumber posted:Many of the institutional reforms that broke the military's hold over Turkey came about a decade ago when the Turks were trying to get EU membership, this was before the EU made it apparent that they were operating a Christians-only club. No, that was just a convenient excuse for AKP and pro-EU liberals went along with it. The country didn't become more democratic and very soon after that, AKP gave up any pretensions for EU.
|
|
#
¿
Aug 18, 2013 17:46
|
|
|
Ham posted:The DA in Egypt has ordered the investigation of the leaders of the "Tamarud" movement, largely seen as the one responsible for the petition writing campaign and 30 Jun. protests that eventually led to the removal of Morsi, on charges of incitement of instability. Why? Because they spoke out against Mubarak's release and called for his arrest/a popular tribunal. It might be callous to say this but: They made their grave, they may as well lie on it.
|
|
#
¿
Aug 22, 2013 19:55
|
|
|
The Entire Universe posted:https://www.focus.de/politik/auslan...id_1080416.html Will you stop with the idiotic cheerleading? It is not unreasonable to be suspicious of claims made by the USA/France/Israel/Turkey etc. These countries don't have a perfect record when it comes to these matters. It is also not unreasonable to distrust Syria/Russia/Iran camp. All we can do is to wait for more impartial groups such as the UN to weigh in, which will happen very soon.
|
|
#
¿
Aug 25, 2013 20:12
|
|
|
Zuhzuhzombie!! posted:If anything, I'm with the camp that believes it was a rogue action. What's your reason to believe that?
|
|
#
¿
Aug 25, 2013 23:10
|
|
|
i poo poo trains posted:I kind of get the sense that Obama isn't particularly excited about strikes and is tossing off responsibility for drumming up a war to AIPAC/the Gulf lobby because 1) he knows he's a lovely cheerleader 2) so he can save face when/if it gets rejected and 3) so Congress can't blame him if things go pear-shaped. I don't get this argument at all. He's the one who's arguing for war. He's the one who has to convince the congress. If it gets rejected he'll look impotent in domestic politics and in the international arena he'll appear as a blundering buffoon who talks big but can't back it up with deeds. Just look at Cameron right now. He's taking a political risk, there is no doubt about it. fspades fucked around with this message at 21:56 on Aug 31, 2013 |
|
#
¿
Aug 31, 2013 21:24
|
|
|
serewit posted:The public is retarded, though. The public is smart enough to know a war with Syria is not about their interests. Only the educated fools confuse the US Middle-East policy with their own welfare. fspades fucked around with this message at 16:41 on Sep 1, 2013 |
|
#
¿
Sep 1, 2013 16:37
|
|
|
|
| # ¿ Apr 29, 2024 05:33 |
|
|
Tatum Girlparts posted:They're not 'raring to go' but support of action is rising, and when it's specifically talked about as limited missile engagements and such it boosts even more. The fact is there's going to be a lot of pissed off people when Republicans shut this down, and that's the point. It's awesome to see liberals are finally admitting what's really important here: sticking it up to the Republicans.
|
|
#
¿
Sep 1, 2013 16:44
|
|