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Rent-A-Cop
Oct 15, 2004

I posted my food for USPOL Thanksgiving!

CeeJee posted:

This should go down well for the conspiracy minded:

http://i51.tinypic.com/24lob5v.jpg

Why's that? Looks like a standard 81mm illumination round.

Edit: Further googling leads me to believe it is a British 81mm illumination round of French manufacture.

Rent-A-Cop fucked around with this message at 11:59 on Apr 16, 2011

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Rent-A-Cop
Oct 15, 2004

I posted my food for USPOL Thanksgiving!

Young Freud posted:

Star of David looking symbol as the manufacturing company's logo.

I think that's a symbol to represent that it is a parachute illumination round.

Rent-A-Cop
Oct 15, 2004

I posted my food for USPOL Thanksgiving!

Mr. Sunshine posted:

Let us be realistic here, whether the rebels are armed with F2000s or AK-74s will do very little to change the overall strategic outcome. Infantry weapons simply have a very limited impact on modern warfare, and on the grand scale of things the difference between the AK-74 (which I assume is what the rebels are mainly using) and the F2000 is fairly minuscule. However, if your choice is between an F2000 and that homemade shotgun you had to unscrew the barrel to reload....

Especially when you consider that the vast majority of the shooting going on is generally aimed at nothing or just sort of in the vague direction of the enemy and on full auto.

Rent-A-Cop
Oct 15, 2004

I posted my food for USPOL Thanksgiving!

Scaramouche posted:

At what point would action take place in Yemen?

Never. It's an underdeveloped country with no significant resources full of heavily armed crazy people. The West learned that lesson in Somalia.

Rent-A-Cop
Oct 15, 2004

I posted my food for USPOL Thanksgiving!

mr. nazi posted:

That's a 3-inch piece of shrapnel near his heart, and it's not clear whether he would need surgery? Is that code for "he might just die instead"?

More likely it means that they aren't sure which is more likely to kill him, the shrapnel or the surgery.

Rent-A-Cop
Oct 15, 2004

I posted my food for USPOL Thanksgiving!

Nenonen posted:

Going into surgery NOW would likely mean that Saleh would be out of the picture for weeks - his government would have a zero chance of staying in power during that time. At a critical moment like this, when he's struggling for his own position, he'd rather just take antibiotics and go to surgery later, if at all possible. That's my take, anyway.

One of the problems with being a tyrant is that anyone who could do your job while you recover from surgery could also do it after you are killed in a palace coup tragic accident. Most dictators don't keep a number two man around unless he's immediate family, and even that's risky.

Rent-A-Cop
Oct 15, 2004

I posted my food for USPOL Thanksgiving!

Pureauthor posted:

I was under the impression that authoritarian regimes were supposed to be good at this whole propaganda thing. Why is everything they do so... clumsy?

Because now instead of broadcasting propaganda on a state controlled TV station they're trying to do it on major international networks. Your average member of Congress or MP probably has a better funded propaganda department than the Libyan government and CNN and BBC are used to finding the story in the bullshit.

Rent-A-Cop
Oct 15, 2004

I posted my food for USPOL Thanksgiving!

Xandu posted:

The resolution didn't call for or allow for international action of any kind.
Which underlines how ridiculous this whole process has been and how ineffectual the UNSC is.

Rent-A-Cop
Oct 15, 2004

I posted my food for USPOL Thanksgiving!

Sivias posted:

Wait, no international action at all? Then what is the Arab Peace resolution anyway? What are they vetoing? If they're all in agreement that what Assad is doing is wrong?

They vetoed a resolution to write Bashar al-Assad a strongly worded letter.

Rent-A-Cop
Oct 15, 2004

I posted my food for USPOL Thanksgiving!

Sivias posted:

What would be the outcome if Syria failed to do this? Wouldn't international military action then be required?
Another even angrier resolution! There isn't going to be any international military action in Syria, because the US would have to lead it and that's not happening in an election year.

Sivias posted:

I just don't understand why this resolution would be brought up without any actual backing of action put in place.
The US and Europe score some humanitarian feelgood points. Russia vetoes in an attempt to convince the rest of the world they are still relevant. China vetoes to curry favor with a non-US-aligned oil exporting state.

Rent-A-Cop
Oct 15, 2004

I posted my food for USPOL Thanksgiving!

Hamelekim posted:

What do you make of the various government sources that have said that the US has a military plan to reshape the middle east, and that includes overthrowing Syria, Iraq, Iran, Libya, Egypt, Sudan, Somalia, the list goes on.
The US has a military plan to reshape Canada. I would be astounded if there wasn't at least one preliminary warplan for every country in the Middle East.

Hamelekim posted:

These US supported groups were training people to overthrow the Egyptian government while at the same time supporting the Egyptian government publicly. You don't see the conspiracy in all of this?
Oh no the US is training pro-democracy protestors! Truly this is a new low for Western Imperialism.

Rent-A-Cop
Oct 15, 2004

I posted my food for USPOL Thanksgiving!

The Angry Spaniard posted:

That's why I think that while countries and governments don't take international stuff seriously enough and work hard to implement all its measures, nobody has legitimacy to impose their will onto others.
Legitimacy in this context is measured in the ability to project force. No moral high ground is high enough that it can't be bombed from space.

Rent-A-Cop
Oct 15, 2004

I posted my food for USPOL Thanksgiving!

McDowell posted:

:eek: well by the logic of 80's Afghanistan we can now provide the rebels with anti air weapons (not a good idea) or we can enforce a no-fly zone- also not a good idea. The missile test seemed like Russia declaring it doesn't want NATO so close to the Black Sea and the Baltic.

And today VOA and BBC are playing up Opposition Protests in Moscow.

Would be a perfect opportunity to prove what a wise decision the F-22 was by blowing the poo poo out of a bunch of 40 year old Soviet surplus.

Rent-A-Cop
Oct 15, 2004

I posted my food for USPOL Thanksgiving!

New Division posted:

A lot of the FSA is former military, I'm sure a lot of them are familiar with the operation of mortars. They're not all rag-tag civilians.
Former Syrian military though.

How good is Syria's military exactly? Libya's was basically just a very heavily armed thug squad. Which is about par for the course in the Middle East.

Rent-A-Cop
Oct 15, 2004

I posted my food for USPOL Thanksgiving!

Xandu posted:

While this is pretty explicitly a war crime, I think the ICC going to get some bad press for focusing on this given all the other problems in the country.

Shouting "Stop or I shall say stop again!" probably isn't helping their image either.

Rent-A-Cop
Oct 15, 2004

I posted my food for USPOL Thanksgiving!

MothraAttack posted:

A separate Islamist group, Mujao (The Unity Movement for Jihad in West Africa) is evidently occupying the city of Gao in Mali and has mined the area to prevent MNLA incursion.
Oh good, because Africa didn't have enough landmines already.

Rent-A-Cop
Oct 15, 2004

I posted my food for USPOL Thanksgiving!

Orange Devil posted:

You'd think it'd be important to inform people.
The media exists to generate profit, not to inform anyone. Yemen is far away, confusing, has nothing of any real value, is populated by a bunch of poor people who don't look like Americans or speak English, and is ridiculously dangerous to boot. It is quite possibly the least interesting place on the planet for the news media.

Rent-A-Cop
Oct 15, 2004

I posted my food for USPOL Thanksgiving!

Torpor posted:

In their defense, those things did just fall from the sky and not explode; throwing it couldn't do much more. Explosives can become unstable over time and become more deadly.
Yeah this is wrong. You really shouldn't play with UXO because there's no telling why it failed to explode. Hell, some munitions actually employ a time-delay or motion-activated anti-tamper trigger just to prevent their removal from the battlefield. Others may have an automatic self-destruct timer, and you don't want to be around when it gets to zero. Not to mention the purely mechanical failures that can happen inside a bomb. They can drop several thousand feet and not detonate, but all it takes to make a boom is enough of a bump to free a single stuck mechanism.

Rent-A-Cop
Oct 15, 2004

I posted my food for USPOL Thanksgiving!

Vernii posted:

Its far better for the Russians to stick by the regime even if it starts gassing the poo poo out of rebellious settlements than for them to abandon it.
Except it really isn't if anyone decides to lean on Russia about it. Russia's interests in Syria are not served by any serious military backing because the Russian government would come out looking weak if anyone called their bluff, and it is a bluff. Putin simply could not commit forces to defending Assad even if he wanted to because there isn't any way for them to get there. If it becomes Libya 2.0 Russia will make the usual noises about sovereignty and then shut up and continue selling Europe gas at a massive profit.

Rent-A-Cop
Oct 15, 2004

I posted my food for USPOL Thanksgiving!

Vernii posted:

If Tartus was an American naval base instead the revolution would have been eagerly snuffed out by the US and NATO, and its importance to the Russians is why they aren't just going to roll over and let the US have its way (if its even motivated to, which I doubt). For that matter, I highly doubt the US administration is going to do anything that could potentially hamper the president's reelection, which a showdown with Russia could easily do.
Except Bahrain is home to US Naval Forces Central Command and US Fifth Fleet and is essentially America's naval hub in the Middle East. Tartus was a backwater during the Cold War and has been essentially abandoned since. It's value as a strategic asset is nil. It's value as a point of pride for the Kremlin is perhaps significant, but likely not worth any real consequences. Your second point is the more important one. There's an election on and Obama has no interest in another Middle East excursion that will be unpopular and expensive. NATO is incapable of acting without US support so they won't act either.

Russia will likely spin a lack of NATO involvement as fear of Russian wrath, but that'll be internal propaganda for Putin's nationalists. Putin's popularity is based largely on maintaining the charade that Russia is still a superpower. He won't risk proving himself wrong by actually challenging anyone to a shootout over some Syrian dirt.

Rent-A-Cop fucked around with this message at 01:06 on Jul 15, 2012

Rent-A-Cop
Oct 15, 2004

I posted my food for USPOL Thanksgiving!

i poo poo trains posted:

And don't believe Putin is bluffing when it comes to escalating his position in Syria, there has been a pattern of leaks from the military that intervention is imminent followed by official denials, which suggests that they still haven't made up their minds.
How would Russia even transport troops to Syria? Overland isn't happening. By air means overflying either Iraq or Turkey. Turkey certainly isn't going to agree, and I don't know if Iraqi sovereignty really extends to doing things against US interests in the region. By sea means either through the Bosporus or the Mediterranean and either of those options is going to antagonize the hell out of NATO. I just don't know if Syria is important enough to Russia for them to risk what certainly won't be a cheap foray into Middle Eastern insurgency warfare.

Rent-A-Cop
Oct 15, 2004

I posted my food for USPOL Thanksgiving!

i poo poo trains posted:

Turkey can't close their straits to Russian warships without violating the Montreux Convention, but if they wanted to avoid the straits, they could go for a roundabout course starting from Murmansk. At any rate, antagonizing NATO would be a bonus, not a cost of intervention. Also, Iraq today cannot even be counted as an ally of the US, much less a puppet; discounting the larger-than-the-Vatican Embassy the US no longer even operates military bases in Iraq.

Whether Russia intervenes at this point is still something of a toss-up. You have to consider which direction the civil war will go (either way, really) and, if things do go badly for Assad, the sort of political math Putin would think the potential costs of intervening vs. looking weak domestically is. Defying the West is practically guaranteed to make him like better.
Hadn't really thought of that. An actual Russian ground force in Syria seems like a recipe for Afghan War 2: Islamist Boogaloo. Here's hoping Putin doesn't decide to really push things.

Rent-A-Cop
Oct 15, 2004

I posted my food for USPOL Thanksgiving!

Xandu posted:

How hard would it be to actually disarm one of those?
Simple enough if you knew what you were doing and it was a new bomb sitting in a magazine somewhere. Suicidal in most other circumstances. There's a reason that when possible UXO is detonated in place.

Rent-A-Cop
Oct 15, 2004

I posted my food for USPOL Thanksgiving!

zero alpha posted:

I had actually wondered why the pilot who defected to Turkey didn't take out some Assad weaponry at least, if not the presidential palace itself.
Probably didn't want to risk somebody launching a missile at him.

Rent-A-Cop
Oct 15, 2004

I posted my food for USPOL Thanksgiving!

McDowell posted:

The situation in Syria is well beyond our comfortable ideas of justice and morality, you really can't support or condemn something like this.
I'm pretty sure you can condemn murder drat near universally.

Rent-A-Cop
Oct 15, 2004

I posted my food for USPOL Thanksgiving!

Alchenar posted:

What people need is swift closure and to know that the monsters who have lorded godlike power over them for decades are never coming back.
Kill everyone who opposes us, and then kill anyone who opposes the killings. There is no swifter way to democracy than mass killings!

Medieval Medic posted:

Drastic times call for drastic measures, even if morally dubious.
Murder is not "morally dubious."

Rent-A-Cop
Oct 15, 2004

I posted my food for USPOL Thanksgiving!

CeeJee posted:

Biding their time seems like the best thing to do for them. Reports like this execution and appearance of radical foreign fighters strengthen their argument they are fighting dangerous terrorists and not a rebel force who just want to overthrow the Assad dictatorship.
The longer they can drag this out the worse things are going to get in Syria. If this becomes a choice between a Syria under Assad or a total clusterfuck with chemical weapons a lot of governments are going to back the lesser evil as they see it.

Rent-A-Cop
Oct 15, 2004

I posted my food for USPOL Thanksgiving!

MothraAttack posted:

They were found with the help of Robert Ballard, the undersea expert who helped locate the Titanic wreckage. They were then buried in well-documented ceremonies.
Probably less puppet and more incapable of actually stopping US drone attacks. He'd rather be unpopular than be seen as a illegitimate and powerless.

Rent-A-Cop
Oct 15, 2004

I posted my food for USPOL Thanksgiving!

Flavahbeast posted:

Roger Ballard is a cunning man, I wouldn't put anything past him
I was going to edit that but it's actually much funnier to think Ballard is conducting drone strikes.

iyaayas01 posted:

He's right about STOVL being dumb and pointless though.
STOVL is only a thing because the Marines are giant heavily armed babies who are still butthurt over Guadalcanal.

Rent-A-Cop
Oct 15, 2004

I posted my food for USPOL Thanksgiving!

Fangz posted:

What's wrong with STOVL? I thought the concept proved itself quite well with the harriers in the Falklands?
STOVL/VTOL aircraft make huge sacrifices in every category for their ability to use small spaces. Fine if you need to operate out of a container ship or a parking lot and you absolutely must have a jet instead of a helicopter. A terrible idea if you have 3 supercarriers and a dozen major airbases in range.

Rent-A-Cop
Oct 15, 2004

I posted my food for USPOL Thanksgiving!

Fangz posted:

My thoughts are that the main advantage to STOVL is the reduced requirements with respect to, e.g. carriers. If the US wants to downscale the carrier battlefleet, with all the massive costs and inflexibility that implies, then doing something like switching to STOVL and smaller escort carriers is what they need to be looking at. With all their problems the harriers are at least a tried and tested technology, and still today sufficient to handle most roles versus enemies that are behind the tech curve.

EDIT:

Also being able to base planes out of forward operating bases frees carrier decks for other duties, thus helping sort out logistics problems.

The problem with Harriers is that they really suck at everything that isn't VTOL. They're slow, they have no carrying capacity, their range is poo poo, and they are giant maintenance nightmares. If you don't want to have carriers it makes far more sense to just invest in carrying around a shitload of TLAMs to blow things up ashore. Helicopters operate better out of unprepared FOBs because harriers still need prepared pads to land on and runways if you want them to take off carrying anything other than their own fuel. (A full tank of gas in a Harrier makes it too heavy for VTOL) And if you can establish a FOB you can build a serviceable runway in a day and just fly Super Tucanos off it which are better at CAS anyway.

And if you're the US you just gently caress up the whole world from Nebraska with a bomber designed during WW2.

Rent-A-Cop fucked around with this message at 15:19 on Sep 30, 2012

Rent-A-Cop
Oct 15, 2004

I posted my food for USPOL Thanksgiving!

Fangz posted:

I guess my mindset is fixed more in the British "should we keep the escort carriers we currently have, or should we invest billions in giant US style carriers just so that we can fly carrier variant F35s off them" debate.
Real carriers does seem like kind of a pointless vanity project for the RN. They did alright blowing up Libyans with Apaches flown off the HMS Ocean. The RN engaging in a fight with anyone who has a functional air force without massive RAF/Allied air cover is a Clancy-esque fantasy.

To get this somewhat back on topic: Does the current Libyan government still have any of the air force or navy left over from the Qaddafi regime or did it pretty much all get bombed during the revolution?

Rent-A-Cop
Oct 15, 2004

I posted my food for USPOL Thanksgiving!

Charlz Guybon posted:

The regular army has much heavier arms and real training. The officer corp must be absolutely incompetent to be getting creamed like that. Low morale is also likely a factor.
Syria has two armies. The regular army, and the Republican Guard. You see this a lot in crazy dictatorships. One small army of politically reliable troops with the best pay, training, and equipment to put down the larger army if it gets uppity. The regular army will also be purposely kept a giant morass of corruption, favoritism, and rampant backstabbing and thoroughly infiltrated by regime informants. It prevents the army from ever being organized enough to challenge the regime, but it also makes it a lovely army.

Rent-A-Cop
Oct 15, 2004

I posted my food for USPOL Thanksgiving!

Corny posted:

Hezbollah is probably not going to be launching waves of drones at Israel any time soon, considering the smaller ones around 11 million $ and the larger ones are around 30 million $, they're too valuable of a resource to waste like that.
That depends on your definition of "drone." There's no reason that anyone with 10 fingers and a credit card can't make a rudimentary surveillance UAV for a less than $5000.

Rent-A-Cop
Oct 15, 2004

I posted my food for USPOL Thanksgiving!

Baby Huey Newton posted:

I would direct you in order to see the wikileaks documents showing the planning of the Libya and Syrian invasions:

http://www.wsws.org/articles/2011/jul2011/wiki-j27.shtml
Planning, war-gaming, and re-planning conflicts that will never happen is what a significant portion of the US military spends all of its time doing. Somewhere there's a plan to invade Canada filed next to a plan to defend Vermont from cross-border raids by violent Quebecois separatists.

Rent-A-Cop
Oct 15, 2004

I posted my food for USPOL Thanksgiving!

Nenonen posted:

(Like, what of those who support both NATO imperialism AND Russian and Chinese imperialism? Where do they fall?)
NATO vs Russia vs China in a three-way struggle to imperialize Antarctica, the last non-aligned piece of land on Earth!

Rent-A-Cop
Oct 15, 2004

I posted my food for USPOL Thanksgiving!

Crasscrab posted:

The pilot is worth more to the FSA alive then he is dead.
Which might make a difference if the FSA actually had detailed control of forces in the area. As it is there's a good chance any regime personnel who get caught are going to be killed.

Rent-A-Cop
Oct 15, 2004

I posted my food for USPOL Thanksgiving!

Casimir Radon posted:

:ughh: Jesus Christ....How in the gently caress did he manage to not at the very least get questioned after last time?
I imagine there's not a whole lot of effort being expended on border control in Syria right now.

Rent-A-Cop
Oct 15, 2004

I posted my food for USPOL Thanksgiving!

suboptimal posted:

Morsi can only go so far in terms of the Egyptian position to Gaza, as starting a new sunshine policy towards Hamas would likely piss off both Israel and the US and further jeopardize their aid deal with the US. Considering how much congressional outcry there was over the NGO workers flap back in March and how close they got to getting their aid cut off, making the Rafah border crossing open 24/7 would essentially make the blockade entirely useless and upset the status quo. Similarly, it would probably open up another political crisis between the Morsi administration and the military (since they've been the ones who have benefitted from most of the aid and still wield considerable political power even if SCAF isn't running things anymore.)

While I'm sure Morsi would love to say he's ripping up the peace treaty and opening up Rafah full time to get a few more points in the polls, his possible courses of action are pretty limited beyond opening up Rafah a few more days a month and other token gestures.

It should also be noted that Hamas has a large and well armed paramilitary wing with serious international backing and a history of violence and human rights abuses. Encouraging them to operate inside Egypt wouldn't be good for Egyptian security, especially while Egypt's government is struggling to find its footing.

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Rent-A-Cop
Oct 15, 2004

I posted my food for USPOL Thanksgiving!

suboptimal posted:

Not saying I disagree with your other points, but to my understanding, Hamas' biggest backers are Egypt (in spite of what we've just discussed) and Qatar.
A lot of governments like to fund paramilitaries in other countries. Very few find it helpful to have large well-armed groups of dubious loyalty inside their own borders. Egypt treads a fine line with regards to Hamas. They are useful so long as they stay in Palestine, but when they flow over the border it risks both international censure and the erosion of the government's own power in the border zone. You need only look to Libya to see the threat of paramilitary groups that start to pursue their own agendas.

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