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Jut
May 16, 2005

by Ralp

Apology posted:



I find it interesting that Wikileaks has slowed down on posting the cables so much that if the newspapers want to talk about a specific cable, they've got to release it themselves.

I think Wikileaks is dead in the water. I think someone behind closed doors must have done some damage to prevent the BoA files release. Between the cut in funding and assange's trial, it all seems to have spluttered into nothing.

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Jut
May 16, 2005

by Ralp

MrQwerty posted:

Oh I'm well aware of that situation. Ever since Mubarak's regime fell I've been wondering what is going to happen if the slave class of the west side of the Persian Gulf gets emboldened.

They will be slaughtered like the animals they are believed to be (in the eyes of the host country).
I lived in Qatar for two years, and the slave class are barely seen as human.

Jut
May 16, 2005

by Ralp

Suntory BOSS posted:

I'm becoming increasingly convinced that this could be the beginning of a Fourth Wave of Democracy and that the United States should put strategic and political considerations momentarily aside in order to aggressively promote and support nonviolent people's movements against autocratic regimes. What's Bahrain going to do, kick out the 5th Fleet and stare down Iran themselves? What will Yemen do, turn away our counter-terrorism aid and training?

Great decline or not, America is still the indispensable nation and Obama needs to seize this opportunity to promote democracy the right way (IE not at gunpoint) as quickly as possible. gently caress, at the VERY least he needs to give one of his patented 'Grand Speeches' on the topic, poo poo.
Maybe America should mind it's own drat business and let things happen naturally. As if nearly a century of meddling in middle east affairs turned out well.

Jut
May 16, 2005

by Ralp

Sivias posted:

This is a very ignorant statement. America owes it's standard of living on the control these despots and dictators have on their country and resources. The idea that we have no interest in controlling the outcome of these events is really obtuse.

Wait, so you're happy for these people to have a lovely quality of life, just so you can enjoy yours?

Jut
May 16, 2005

by Ralp

Mad Doctor Cthulhu posted:

And do all Americans enjoy this standard of living? It seems like a bad way to support a lovely foreign policy when most of the people in this country are barely surviving. It's in the boat as 'well, you're not as bad off as <insert African country name here>' to avoid actual discussion.

hang on a second, this is the post I was initially replying to

quote:

I'm becoming increasingly convinced that this could be the beginning of a Fourth Wave of Democracy and that the United States should put strategic and political considerations momentarily aside in order to aggressively promote and support nonviolent people's movements against autocratic regimes. What's Bahrain going to do, kick out the 5th Fleet and stare down Iran themselves? What will Yemen do, turn away our counter-terrorism aid and training?

Great decline or not, America is still the indispensable nation and Obama needs to seize this opportunity to promote democracy the right way (IE not at gunpoint) as quickly as possible. gently caress, at the VERY least he needs to give one of his patented 'Grand Speeches' on the topic, poo poo.

Where I suggested that maybe America stays the gently caress out of this for a change, and let's the respective countries work things out for themselves, instead of the US getting involved and manipulating the situation to benefit themselves at the expense of other populations. You know...repeating history and all that.

Jut
May 16, 2005

by Ralp

tetsul posted:

I personally think they have been getting involved in their affairs and it was (for once) actually a good thing. When you look at the time frame:

1- President gives speech in support of Iran protests, says the difference from Egypt is Iran's using violence to suppress it.
2- Bahrain, with Saudi blessing, decides crush them all is a good tactic to take with their protesters.
3- Hillary gives a rambling, backpedaling interview that sounds like she's suffering from a head injury when the contradiction is brought up.
4- Bahrain's leaders suddenly decides instead of crushing the protesters, they want to negotiate with them.

I have a feeling between 3 and 4 someone from the state department gave a call to Bahrain and said to them "You assholes, you made us look stupid. You best fix this and fix it now or there will only be an empty base between you and Iran."

I doubt it, I'm betting that the rest of the GCC have put pressure on Bahrain not to gently caress things up for the rest of them. Having lived out in Qatar for two years, I can tell you that out of all the GCC countries, Bahrain is the weakest link.

Jut
May 16, 2005

by Ralp

Nenonen posted:

This is the best:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wWIbCtz_Xwk

At 2:39 mark the crowd starts a whistling concert and Ceausescu and his wife totally lose the situation.

Four days later, on Christmas day, they were executed.

Although the 1989 revolution was more of a political coup d'etat than anything. Just look who took power afterwards, Ion Iliescu and his merry band of communists.

Jut
May 16, 2005

by Ralp

QuentinCompson posted:

Yes, and while we're at it, why don't you start talking about how they're savages who can't govern themselves?

Close your racist trap.

He's pretty much right though, I lived in Qatar for two years, and you learn pretty quick that people over there really hate to lose face.

Jut
May 16, 2005

by Ralp

Nenonen posted:

You could say the same thing about Boris Yeltsin and his merry band of communists, but that would be misleading. The communist leaders were overthrown by popular uprisings, not by backstage maneuverings (the military arrest of Gorbachev was a true coup). That many of the new leaders had been members of the old ruling party should not be surprising in what used to be a one party state.

Ok, how about we consider the fact that the 'spontaneously formed' interim government (FSN) was actually formed 9 months prior to the revolution, and called for NC's removal as early as March 1989.
The FSN was never supposed to run in the election, but when that changed in Jan 1990 and the people of Bucharest took to the streets once more, demanding that senior former communists not be allowed to run, Iliescu bussed in miners to smash the poo poo out of them (factlitated by the Securitate [secret police]). This continued on and off for nearly 2 years.
The FSN also seized exclusive control of state media, allowing their campaign to dominate, and shutting out access for the other political parties.

A free and fair democracy it isn't

Jut
May 16, 2005

by Ralp

QuentinCompson posted:

I'm so glad that you've lived in Qatar for two years and you feel that this grants you sufficient credibility to state that you support a statement coming from someone who doesn't know the difference between Iranians and Arabs and asserts that they're backwards.

I've lived in New York City, so I can say bigoted things about a lot of groups! Boy oh boy, which one should I start with.

Eeer I never said they were backwards, and neither did he. You have sand in your vagina over something you are either imagining, or cannot understand. I lived and worked alongside Arabs for two years, some of my family are Arabic...I think I know their culture better than you.

https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/kent-csi/vol8no3/html/v08i3a05p_0001.htm

Jut fucked around with this message at 04:15 on Feb 21, 2011

Jut
May 16, 2005

by Ralp

Xandu posted:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JosiAgoiWow

Weapon used against protesters in Benghazi.

gently caress paintball guns, I wanna see the protester tanks!

Nenonen posted:

I'll take your word for that, but... how is any of that even in the slightest related to anything?

You were the one who brought up Romania...

Jut fucked around with this message at 04:38 on Feb 21, 2011

Jut
May 16, 2005

by Ralp
twitter is reporting more fighting in Green Square...AJE is showing some dude cooking :s

Jut
May 16, 2005

by Ralp

Frackmire posted:

A lot of people are going to die, but this is history in the making. A whole system of corrupt dictators is imploding on itself and it's a beautiful thing. I think people will remember this along the lines of the collapse of USSR and the independence the Eastern Blocks nations.

Hopefully, unlike the Eastern Bloc Nations, they won't be replaced with equally corrupt "democracies"

Jut
May 16, 2005

by Ralp
I don't understand though, how the protesters have made such progress in Libya. I mean CQ has the military hardware, if he really wanted to, what would there be to stop him using the big toys (tanks and poo poo) against the protesters, why has he 'restrained' himself to using mercs armed with guns and landcruisers?
Has he really lost all army support?

Jut
May 16, 2005

by Ralp
sigh, looks like I tempted fate with my previous post. Something just didn't add up before, it seems that he was just regrouping so he could bring out the big boys.

Hope the protesters prevail. If not, it could set a horrible example of how to handle protesters elsewhere.

I also see the cancellation of the Bahrain GP being a huge kick in the balls for the royal family, that was one of their huge cockwaving projects (especially since Qatar have been trying to get F1 for a while now, going as far to refurb their track and diddle behind the scenes with FIA elections), hopefully there won't be any major repercussions.

Jut fucked around with this message at 17:57 on Feb 21, 2011

Jut
May 16, 2005

by Ralp

Nonsense posted:



I do hope Gaddafi left, it just seems even more insane for him to have left, and the country still massacring people.

There have been rumours he fled starting from around 24 hours ago, I think what's happening at the moment is proof that they are just rumours. Why else would he be bombing the poo poo out of protesters if he was going to walk away?

Jut
May 16, 2005

by Ralp
The line between staying out, letting the protesters deal with the revolution themselves, and outside intervention has just been crossed. I would gladly support/pay/go out there myself to stop this.

Jut
May 16, 2005

by Ralp

Doccers posted:


England only has jumpjet carriers and a Harrier is not an air superiority fighter (Hello Falklands!) but they could probably make a deal with one of the closer nations to park their better poo poo closer.


It's worse than that, we don't have ANY carriers, and the Harrier has been retired.

Jut
May 16, 2005

by Ralp

Syphilicious! posted:



What the hell else motivations are going to prompt intervention? 9/11 wasn't even enough to get full support for the invasion of Iraq, public perception of that war was comparatively negative. What could possibly make the U.S. think it should get involved besides the same old motivations that have always driven its actions?

Err probably because 9/11 had nothing to do with Iraq, and people are not totally stupid.

Jut
May 16, 2005

by Ralp

spikenigma posted:

It's a shame that there's a high possibility that Gaddhafi will die surrounded by loved ones at a ripe old age in a foreign country.

muh, he's not going anywhere. He will either crush the revolution or be taken out himself.

Jut
May 16, 2005

by Ralp
Nice to see that the British Government is doing sweet gently caress all to help their citizens trapped there.
"go to the airport if you have the cash" doesn't really help.

Jut
May 16, 2005

by Ralp

Pajser posted:

So where are his hot amazon bodyguards and why haven't any of them castrated the fucker, yet?
Who said anything about hot? The only ones I've seen so far have been buttertrolls

Jut
May 16, 2005

by Ralp

zalderach posted:

The defectors will probably be able to return when the revolt is successful.

If the revolt is successful. I really think CQ's not going anywhere, and if he's forced out, he's going to scorch earth. I hope I'm wrong.

Jut
May 16, 2005

by Ralp

Namarrgon posted:

Because he's very clearly insane.


It's pretty obvious that dictators aren't sane. If they were both him and Mubarak would have gathered up their vast fortune and got the gently caress out at the first serious signs of trouble.

Mubarak and CQ are two different breeds of dictator. I think towards the end Mubarak was just looking for a way to leave government while still saving face.

Jut
May 16, 2005

by Ralp

Slave posted:

You mean stay in power long enough to squirrel all of his loot away

he's not stupid, his loot, or at least a sizable portion of it would already have been squirreled away somewhere safe.

Jut
May 16, 2005

by Ralp
IT'S OK GUYS! It's all due to Egyptians in Qatar telling lies through Al Jazeera! GO HOME!

Jut
May 16, 2005

by Ralp
I'm surprised how these govts so far have stuck to state propaganda to spread their BS. Given the patchiness of some of the information coming through the intertubes (i.e. CQ having left the country, ships shelling towns etc...), and the willingness of people to believe whatever they read, how hard would it be for governments to use twitter/fb to seed their own misinformation?

Jut
May 16, 2005

by Ralp

ChubbyEmoBabe posted:



I'm surprised they haven't been the target of a "terrorist" attack.

Well if it helps, the US did bomb the poo poo out of them for not playing ball and saying nice things about them during Iraq.

Jut
May 16, 2005

by Ralp

Apology posted:



Taking a taxi in Yemen = Hitch-hiking in Detroit




From what I saw in Qatar, this kind of creepy behaviour is not unique. I've had friends followed home in their car several times, have comments made to them at traffic lights, has someone crash into them, then offer them money for a date while discussing the insurance details etc...
Hell being *with* someone wasn't protection, for example. England vs Brazil match, went with a Brazilian friend of mine, went for a piss, I was gone less than five minutes, when I came back there was a guy sitting in my reserved seat, trying to chat my friend up and touch her.
Guys there has very little tact, and just came off as creepy and desperate.

Jut
May 16, 2005

by Ralp

Lascivious Sloth posted:

Don't derail this into a debate about Middle-East sexual harassment, it ruined the last thread.

sorry didn't see that last thread

Jut
May 16, 2005

by Ralp

Roark posted:



Libyan intervention via the UN is a non-starter, as other posters have pointed out. It's just a glorified talking shop on good days, and Russia and China would oppose anything beyond statements of basic condemnation. And isn't Libya still on the Human Rights Council?
Please stop repeating what you've heard on fox news. The most frequent user of veto is the US. China only veto on issues related to china, and Russia rarely use their veto powers. There is no precedent set for China and Russia blocking military action through the UNSC.
And as for the UNHRC, they have several suspect members sitting on it, the reasoning behind it is to get countries such as Lybia to engage in discussion. It's not a "we all have great human rights" club, and was never supposed to be.

Jut
May 16, 2005

by Ralp

Brown Moses posted:

Here's the AP story

If this is true then Gaddafi might as well shot himself now.

Muh, I'm guessing this is just misinformation against CQ to try and drag the UK into this and speed up CQ's removal.

Jut
May 16, 2005

by Ralp

Brown Moses posted:

AJE just updated on this:


[edit]Apparently it got turned back by Malta.

well that's loving lovely of them. "screw you guys trying to escape. Out of fuel? not our problem mate"

Jut
May 16, 2005

by Ralp

henpod posted:

Holy gently caress, is this a typo or have 10,000 people been killed? :aaa:. If so, this is even more abhorrent than before, that's an insane amount.

It's not uncommon for death tolls to be overestimated during a revolution, look at the estimated people killed in the Romanian revolution, compared to the actual figures. The media were reporting deaths in the tens of thousands, but the actual figure was less than 200. More people ended up dying in the minerads than NC's overthrow.

Jut
May 16, 2005

by Ralp

Settepotet posted:

I don't know what to believe anymore.

10.000 dead is an insane amount. But, when we think about it, it is truly possible its way higher than the previously reported 1.000. That lunatic dictator used bombers and gunship against crowded civilians. The amount of killed must have been mindnumbing. And, as the tweet above mentions: 450 bodies discovered in a school. Probably result of the 'clean up' in Benghazi.

Either way: a mass murder of civilians.

Don't forget that there can be a lot of hyperbole and exaggeration over things like this. I'm not denying that he's sent planes to bomb people, or that mercs have been shooting, but I'm not convinced that the image painted by the protesters is entirely accurate. Any figures would just be guesswork at this point in time, and only untill the smoke has cleared could we get an accurate count.

Jut
May 16, 2005

by Ralp

Some Twat posted:

"Our priority is their safety so we are advising them to stay put if they are safe where they are at the current time."

If the British government's priority was their safety, then they would be going there to airlift them out with a "attack us while we are rescuing our dudes and we WILL gently caress your poo poo up" attitude, not telling them to stay put. gently caress our government. Other's have gotten their people out, why has the British government still got their finger up their rear end?

Jut
May 16, 2005

by Ralp

Ewan posted:

From the Guardian live blog

Mr Hague said that, as well as laying charter planes, he was not ruling out the possibility of using military flights "without permission".
about loving time

Jut
May 16, 2005

by Ralp

Paddyo posted:

Hopefully this resolution will result in a meeting. And with any luck that will lead to a second, even more strongly-worded statement. It's even possible that they may threaten some sort of sanctions on the Libyan government should they continue killing their own civilians.

Of course by the time debate is concluded and all these wizened diplomats have all had their say the issue will have been settled with blood in the streets, but oh well. The diplomatic process, you know...

Although if you actually take the time to look at UN peacekeeping operations you will see that they have deployed military forces at least 40 times over the last 20 years.
This whole "UN is lovely" attitude is a hangover from the US not getting it's own way with the UN, and more recently the Iraq war, when bush couldn't get authorisation to start a war.

Jut fucked around with this message at 23:07 on Feb 23, 2011

Jut
May 16, 2005

by Ralp

J33uk posted:

Peacekeeping is the key thing here, almost all of those missions were dealing with the post conflcit phase and most of them were absolutely stricken with corruption and ineffectiveness. You then have the few attempts at active intervention to prevent loss of life which led to things like Srebrenica and well, Rwanda. The UN has some great goals but it's effectiveness at dealing with violent conflict in much of the world is minimal.

The UN isn't mandated to intervene in conflicts unless genocide is taking place, so peacekeeping is pretty much all they can do. And with nearly 100,000 UN Troops deployed at the moment, they are hardly afraid to try and keep peace. And thanks to Stalin blocking the definition of Genocide to include systematic destruction of political groups, what's going on in Lybia is not technically genocide, and the UN's hands are pretty much tied.

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Jut
May 16, 2005

by Ralp

Brown Moses posted:

From the BBC:


That's a city about 210km east of Tripoli. Early there was news that there was a column of military vehicle on the way their, seems like they got hosed up.

How the gently caress do protesters manage to beat TANKS?!

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