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Petey
Nov 26, 2005

For who knows what is good for a person in life, during the few and meaningless days they pass through like a shadow? Who can tell them what will happen under the sun after they are gone?

rum sodomy the lash posted:



dark red - revolutions
red - governmental changes
orange major protests
yellow minor protests

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Petey
Nov 26, 2005

For who knows what is good for a person in life, during the few and meaningless days they pass through like a shadow? Who can tell them what will happen under the sun after they are gone?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12517327

quote:

More than 200 people are known to have died, doctors say, with 900 injured [in Libya].

The most bloody attacks were reported over the weekend, when a funeral procession is said to have come under machine-gun and heavy weapons fire.

One doctor, amid the sounds of fresh gunfire, told the BBC that what had happened was a "massacre".

...

The violence escalated on Saturday, when a funeral procession for victims of previous clashes made its way past a major security compound.

Witnesses said troops used machine-guns, mortars, large-calibre weapons, and even a missile, against the mourners

Petey
Nov 26, 2005

For who knows what is good for a person in life, during the few and meaningless days they pass through like a shadow? Who can tell them what will happen under the sun after they are gone?

Jut posted:

Wait, so you're happy for these people to have a lovely quality of life, just so you can enjoy yours?

No. His point was that Americans do have interests in these nations. Just not interests we like to admit, or like to think of ourselves as having; the same way we have an interest in maintaining the terrible quality of life of people who make iPhones because we like cheap electronics, even if we will then go to Starbucks and buy fair trade coffee.

IN OTHER WORDS

He was responding to the first part of your statement ("Let America mind its own business") - technically speaking, what happens there IS our business, in a globalized world. Better off for us to just let alone, period, without characterizing whose or what business it is.

e: which is how I feel. I don't think we can intervene in these conflicts. There are things we can do from a distance, to a certain extent, as we did during the divestment from South Africa. But other than that, all we can do is pray for the protestors.

Petey
Nov 26, 2005

For who knows what is good for a person in life, during the few and meaningless days they pass through like a shadow? Who can tell them what will happen under the sun after they are gone?

Mad Doctor Cthulhu posted:

Suddenly I look around my decimated state of Michigan, and realize that maybe we should bring things back home.

I agree

Petey
Nov 26, 2005

For who knows what is good for a person in life, during the few and meaningless days they pass through like a shadow? Who can tell them what will happen under the sun after they are gone?

Sivias posted:

It's also naive to think that America is the only nation with vested interests in manipulating or participating in the changes in these regions.

AJE reported that 79% of Libya's oil exports go to Europe. Isolationism is an unrealistic idealism that will not work with such deeply dug in globalization.

I don't think it's unrealistic. I think it's incoherent.

But you can still practice military nonintervention. Which I don't think is either unrealistic or idealistic - at least, not in the sense you're using it.

Petey
Nov 26, 2005

For who knows what is good for a person in life, during the few and meaningless days they pass through like a shadow? Who can tell them what will happen under the sun after they are gone?

GnatKingCoal posted:

The original Hannibal, I think. A hero to the Carthaginians.

Correct.

Petey
Nov 26, 2005

For who knows what is good for a person in life, during the few and meaningless days they pass through like a shadow? Who can tell them what will happen under the sun after they are gone?
well, this owns
http://allafrica.com/stories/201102210060.html

quote:


Cairo — Egypt could soon be looking for a new economic model - one that will be different from the traditional system that has been promoted for years by international financial institutions such as the World Bank, the IMF, and the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), under the reign of ousted president Hosni Mubarak.

"Lots of Egyptians after the revolution realized the level of injustice against them, and that they were being ripped off for many years," Abulezz Al-Hariri, a former opposition member of parliament, told IPS.

"They started asking for their rights," he added. "This cabinet is just trying to cater to that immediate realization."

Since the mid 1980's, the World Bank, the IMF, and USAID have sought to encourage policies that limit the role of government in the economy, cut budget deficits, and give more influence to the private sector and corporations.

Under pressure from the public following the success of the January revolution, the government of Prime Minister Ahmed Shafiq - originally appointed by Mubarak but kept by the military to run the everyday affairs until new elections are held - quickly rolled back some of the controversial policies.

Many of the moves announced over the past few days are designed to be a quick fix to the economic situation faced by millions of Egyptians who are eager to enjoy concrete benefits of the 18-day revolution in which 365 protesters died.

The new government has announced that all citizens are eligible to apply for monthly portions of sugar, cooking oil, and rice. The previous cabinet, which was comprised of businessmen and former corporate executives, had frozen the rations.

This decision overturned the previous policy of providing monthly rations only to those who prove they are poor through a lengthy process of paperwork and red tape.

Last week, new finance minister Samir Radwan said that the country will not change its current subsidies system, which offers reduced food prices for some 65 million Egyptians.

Furthermore, the new government promised to offset any extra cost in food prices that might accompany rising prices internationally. Radwan put the initial cost at 2.8 billion Egyptian pounds (about 425 million dollars).

Under the new policies, the health ministry will offer free health care 24 hours a day at public hospitals. Days before the Jan. 25 revolution, the Mubarak regime had limited free health care hours from 8:00 am to 1:00 pm.

Temporary workers who have spent at least three years working for the government will now be given permanent contracts that carry higher salaries, and benefits such as pension plans, and health and social insurance.

Many municipalities also saw long lines of applicants after the interim government said that it will offer subsidized housing for young people on an expedited basis.

And on Wednesday, the Central Bank of Egypt said it will be a "guarantor" to achieve the demands of banking sector employees, which include curbing top management compensation packages and salaries as well as offering greater benefits for employees.

But while the new measures remain limited, their implementation has raised questions about whether Egypt may be heading back to its strong socialist past, which flourished under the rule of former president Gamal Abdelnasser, who ran the country in 1950's and 1960's.

Some officials say that the new programmes constitute an initial reaction from a team known for its pro-capitalist background and are only temporary.

"We are not moving back to a socialist past," Amina Ghanem, deputy finance minister, told IPS. "We are just trying to extinguish fires."

"We are not going to lose our reforms," said Ghanem, who was also deputy to outgoing finance minister Youssef Botrous Ghali. "We want people to work and not take charity from the government."

For measures already announced, the interim government will find funding by re-allocating spending to more high-priority areas, rather than re-making the Egyptian economy, she said.

"Instead of spending now on, say, for example, landscaping, we'll re-channel that money to more urgent needs," she explained.

Al-Hariri, a member of the left-of-centre Tagammu Party, agreed that the current interim government is not taking a U-turn away from capitalist policies inspired by Western financial institutions.

"Their measures are just like tranquilizers; something to kill the pain but not cure anything," he said.

Al-Hariri added that past policies under Mubarak were not effective and that any future government should find an alternative. He recommended long- term plans to create more jobs, and what he called "real industries" and "real investments".

Confiscating wealth looted by cronies of the former regime, more egalitarian distribution of wealth, gradual taxation, better government oversight, and placing "a reasonable ceiling" on profitability of goods and services sold to the public are among the measures that should restore an economic balance to society, he said.

Mamdouh Al-Wali, a business writer with the Al-Ahram Daily newspaper, said Egypt's path towards a new economic direction will be fraught with dangers from deeply-rooted interests, such as businesses, former regime symbols, and international financial institutions.

"A future new government, even though elected, may not be able to resist all that counter-pressure," he told IPS. "The change will be hard."


from EC in LF

Petey
Nov 26, 2005

For who knows what is good for a person in life, during the few and meaningless days they pass through like a shadow? Who can tell them what will happen under the sun after they are gone?

Young Freud posted:

If Mohamed Bouazizi doesn't become Time's Man of the Year for 2011, then that whole publication isn't worth the paper it's printed on.

Prediction: it will be Facebook/Twitter (as a corporate person)

Petey
Nov 26, 2005

For who knows what is good for a person in life, during the few and meaningless days they pass through like a shadow? Who can tell them what will happen under the sun after they are gone?

Gravy Jones posted:

Yeah, I realise they were talking about TV. I just find it really strange that they cover it online, but don't even mention it on TV. Don't they have any world news?

hahahahahaahahahaahano

Petey
Nov 26, 2005

For who knows what is good for a person in life, during the few and meaningless days they pass through like a shadow? Who can tell them what will happen under the sun after they are gone?

Cjones posted:

Libyan ambassador tells the UN that Qaddafi is committing genocide.

ukle posted:

Not just that - the whole UN delegation from Libya asks for the UN to instigate an immediate no fly zone over Libya. Basically they want the UN to intervene, which way things are turning is not altogether unimaginable as even the Chinese must be appalled at what the Libyans are doing.

links? AJE not mentioning this

Petey
Nov 26, 2005

For who knows what is good for a person in life, during the few and meaningless days they pass through like a shadow? Who can tell them what will happen under the sun after they are gone?
I don't know that anything will save Gaddafi at this point. I suppose the question is whether the US has more to lose by a) not doing anything and being seen as complicit or b) doing something and being seen as imperialists.

Petey
Nov 26, 2005

For who knows what is good for a person in life, during the few and meaningless days they pass through like a shadow? Who can tell them what will happen under the sun after they are gone?

GonadTheBallbarian posted:

To be honest I think the US could push the UN to intervene, but probably won't. At this point, if Qrazy Qaddafi has already fled, it may be long past the point of efficacy in sanctions. I'm not sure what would be the right thing to do but I'm 100% sure it's not what is going on right now.

Apparently Ban Ki Moon has spoken to Gaddafi in Libya (or so I understand). And I don't know what the UN would do.

Petey
Nov 26, 2005

For who knows what is good for a person in life, during the few and meaningless days they pass through like a shadow? Who can tell them what will happen under the sun after they are gone?

korranus posted:

I hope it's actually NATO. For aforementioned Diego Garcia or Missouri reasons.

I'm sorry I don't get these references

Petey
Nov 26, 2005

For who knows what is good for a person in life, during the few and meaningless days they pass through like a shadow? Who can tell them what will happen under the sun after they are gone?

GonadTheBallbarian posted:

Stealth bombers are based in these locations. The B-2.

I guess I'm not up on my war porn and also I don't understand how B2s are supposed to help in this situation.

Petey
Nov 26, 2005

For who knows what is good for a person in life, during the few and meaningless days they pass through like a shadow? Who can tell them what will happen under the sun after they are gone?

Priapist posted:

I do think, however, that would help other governments de-legitimize their own protesters by pointing to Western intervention in Libya. Stop a massacre and possibly stunt the progress of other democratic uprisings, or watch a tyrant commit a bloodbath. lovely choice, it seems to me.

This is my feeling as well.

Petey
Nov 26, 2005

For who knows what is good for a person in life, during the few and meaningless days they pass through like a shadow? Who can tell them what will happen under the sun after they are gone?

Mr Plow posted:

It's worth asking whether showing dictators their actions have consequences and that they are being watched, might have the opposite effect and instead give protesters greater confidence.

I don't think so. This is the protestors battle to win for themselves. A no-fly zone might be appropriate, as are sanctions; but direct military action has nothing good come of it.

Petey
Nov 26, 2005

For who knows what is good for a person in life, during the few and meaningless days they pass through like a shadow? Who can tell them what will happen under the sun after they are gone?

Nenonen posted:

Half a million Egyptians in Libya? That's a tremendous amount for a country of six million people!! What is this figure based on, and where are they locationed?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Egyptian_diaspora

quote:

An estimated 2.7 million Egyptians abroad contribute actively to the development of their country through remittances (US$ 7.8 in 2009), circulation of human and social capital, as well as investment. Approximately 70% of Egyptian migrants live in Arab countries (923,600 in Saudi Arabia, about 500,000 in Jordan, 332,600 in Libya, and 190,550 in Kuwait with the rest elsewhere in the region) and the remaining 30% are living mostly in Europe and North America (318,000 in the US, 110,000 in Canada and 90,000 in Italy).[1]

based on this: http://www.egypt.iom.int/Doc/IOM%20Migration%20and%20Development%20in%20Egypt%20Facts%20and%20Figures%20(English).pdf

also

http://twitter.com/bencnn/status/39840275790569472

quote:

Egyptian border officials say 15,000 Egyptians crossed Monday from #Libya to #Egypt.

Petey
Nov 26, 2005

For who knows what is good for a person in life, during the few and meaningless days they pass through like a shadow? Who can tell them what will happen under the sun after they are gone?
That umbrella video is....so bizarre.

Petey
Nov 26, 2005

For who knows what is good for a person in life, during the few and meaningless days they pass through like a shadow? Who can tell them what will happen under the sun after they are gone?

Times posted:

I want to find out if there is a way to contact him and persuade him en masse to not take his own life but instead become a loud voice of opposition from a place of asylum. I do not want to see this obviously empathic person perish.



See, you read that as empathetic. I read it as Baghdad bob.

Also quit it with the snuff fantasies.

Petey
Nov 26, 2005

For who knows what is good for a person in life, during the few and meaningless days they pass through like a shadow? Who can tell them what will happen under the sun after they are gone?

quadratic posted:

Thanks, that is awesome.

Anyone know where to find a larger version of this picture from the OP?



edit: Some other good pictures at that guy's Flickr http://www.flickr.com/photos/stefangeens/

I know we were all transfixed by that trainwreck but did anyone ever find a bigger version of this pic?

Petey
Nov 26, 2005

For who knows what is good for a person in life, during the few and meaningless days they pass through like a shadow? Who can tell them what will happen under the sun after they are gone?

Poke posted:

Last week a gallon of regular unleaded was $2.99 at the Shell gas station in front of my house. Now it's $3.30. What the gently caress? Is Libyan oil that important to the rest of the world?

Vladimir Putin posted:

As far as I know, Libya is a key supplier of sweet light crude mostly to European buyers. America gets most of its SLC from Nigeria and some other mish mash of African and South American sources. The key thing is that if things get too out of hand in Libya, European buyers may have to turn to other sources, i.e. Nigeria etc... and it drives up demand and prices for American buyers.

No, it's speculators.

e: let me elaborate. There are two components to the price of a barrel of oil. There is what you might sloppily call the primary price, which is something like a rough equilibrium between supply and demand at a healthy profit margin. Then there is the speculative price, which is a function of a futures contract placed by speculators, who are essentially trading agreements to pay what they believe the price of oil to be in the future. This fluctuates wildly as traders do.

Almost no single thing you read about actually affects the day to day supply of oil, at least with the immediacy it obtains at the price at the pump (even if the strait of Hormuz was closed entirely, oil shipped yesterday would still take some time to arrive at refineries, and then be refined, and be available). What affects day to day prices is huge, tremendous amounts of speculative trading on the stock market. Some economists have put as much as 60% of the cost of oil at the pump is actually just inflation based on these futures speculations, as opposed to a more "natural" price more closely related to supply/demand.

e2: more reading for a lay audience- http://money.howstuffworks.com/oil-speculation-raise-gas-price1.htm

quote:

By betting on the price outcome with only a single futures contract, a speculator has no effect on a market. It's simply a bet. But a speculator with the capital to purchase a sizeable number of futures derivatives at one price can actually sway the market. As energy researcher F. William Engdahl put it, "[s]peculators trade on rumor, not fact" [source: Engdahl]. A speculator purchasing vast futures at higher than the current market price can cause oil producers to horde their commodity in the hopes they'll be able to sell it later on at the future price. This drives prices up in reality -- both future and present prices -- due to the decreased amount of oil currently available on the market.

Investment firms that can influence the oil futures market stand to make a lot; oil companies that both produce the commodity and drive prices up of their product up through oil futures derivatives stand to make even more...Morgan Stanley, as a player in the physical market, controls an estimated 15 percent of the home-heating oil supply in New England. Goldman Sachs owns shares of companies that own pipelines and refineries.

Petey fucked around with this message at 00:47 on Feb 25, 2011

Petey
Nov 26, 2005

For who knows what is good for a person in life, during the few and meaningless days they pass through like a shadow? Who can tell them what will happen under the sun after they are gone?

Biplane posted:

This is from a couple of pages ago, but this system seems like it would be incredibly easy to game and exploit. Am I missing something here?

You're not missing anything. Speculating in commodities is just as insane and gameable as it sounds.

Petey
Nov 26, 2005

For who knows what is good for a person in life, during the few and meaningless days they pass through like a shadow? Who can tell them what will happen under the sun after they are gone?
http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2011/02/28/110228fa_fact_steavenson?currentPage=all

This 8 page New Yorker article on Tahrir Square, from their reporter who was embedded in there for weeks, is one of the best pieces of journalism I have read on Egypt and indeed in the New Yorker.

It's a bit too long to quote, but definitely read this.

Petey
Nov 26, 2005

For who knows what is good for a person in life, during the few and meaningless days they pass through like a shadow? Who can tell them what will happen under the sun after they are gone?
http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2011/02/28/110228fa_fact_steavenson

Pro-read from TNY about what it was like on the ground in Tahrir.

quote:

In Arabic, tahrir means “liberation,” and Tahrir Square acquired its name after the coup of 1952, which ousted King Farouk and realigned power across the Arab world. It is a vast teardrop of open space adjacent to dusty, crowded streets and the tight mass of alleys of downtown Cairo—a once grand central district that has since been left to rot as most of the élite moved out to the suburbs.

Around Tahrir are several imposing buildings, which seem almost to form a diagram of Egyptian life. At the northern end of the square is the Egyptian Museum, containing Pharaonic treasure spanning millennia. To its west is the modern slab of the National Democratic Party headquarters. South of that is the home of the Arab League, which once enshrined the hopes of the Pan-Arabist movement but is now largely considered a moribund talking shop. On the eastern side of the square is the elegant former campus of the American University in Cairo, converted in part from a palace built for a nineteenth-century Ottoman pasha. At the southern end is the Omar Makram mosque, where state funerals often occur, and the Mogamma, a dour edifice built, in the early fifties, as a gift from the Soviet Union. The Mogamma houses a vast bureaucracy—tax-evasion-investigation offices, the passport office, departments issuing drivers’ licenses and marriage licenses—whose labyrinthine tangles are notorious among Egypt’s citizenry. A block from the square, in a side street, is the American Embassy, one of the largest United States foreign missions, and a reminder of the two billion dollars of American aid, including $1.3 billion in military assistance, that flows into the country each year. Three large hotels—the Ramses Hilton, the Nile Hilton, and the Semiramis Intercontinental—surround the square, catering to some of the twelve million tourists who contribute a significant proportion to Egypt’s economy.

The concierge who showed me to my room at the Semiramis joked, “I’ve worked here for twenty years and it’s the first time anyone has asked for a city view. Always people are desperately wanting a room on the Nile.” For several days, the square had been full of crowds demanding an end to the rule of President Hosni Mubarak. From the hotel, it was possible to see smoke rising from the blackened husk of the N.D.P. headquarters, which protesters had burned on January 28th, the Friday of Rage. The building continued to smolder for two days.

On the square, there were workers from the slums with broken shoes; university professors; ex-Army officers; trendy upper-middle-class girls with long black hair and Fendi sunglasses; imams and Coptic priests; National Democratic Party members. Everyone wanted to be heard. “Please, foreign journalist?” they said, politely stopping me. “I have something to say!” I talked to one activist who worked for Vodafone. “There is a collective consciousness,” he said. “Even after the phones went off”—the regime shut down cell-phone and Internet service for several days—“there was a kind of national telepathy of where to go.” Day by day, they gathered the momentum of revolution, awed by their own defiance and wary of the tanks that had taken up residence around the perimeter of the square.

On January 30th, I watched a column of tanks advance into the square. Protesters blocked their way while two F-16 fighter jets buzzed, loud and intimidating, overhead. “The people and the Army are one hand!” the crowd chanted, climbing on top of the tanks, scrawling “Mubarak Must Go!” on their flanks, and engaging the soldiers.

“We are your brothers,” people said.

“We will not harm you,” one soldier said.

“Will you shoot at us?” people asked. “You will shoot at us if you are given the order.”

“No,” a soldier replied. “I will never do that. Not even if I am given the order.”

In the standoff between the regime and the protesters, the Army was bound to be crucial. The Egyptian Army commands enormous respect among civilians. The military establishment has long been the most powerful institution in the country and controls not just security and defense but also a huge economic sphere, including factories and road building and housing projects. As the days passed, and the crowds on Tahrir grew and Mubarak prevaricated, I tried to make sense of the Army’s role.

There was something surreal about the tanks on the square. Few armies enjoy being sent to the streets to restore civil order, and the tanks were not accompanied by any infantry. I spoke to George Ishak, the head of the opposition movement Kefaya (the name means “enough”), who said, “I believe the military will protect us. We trust in our military a lot because we don’t have anyone else to trust.” He also wondered why the Army had not contained the protesters more effectively. “I don’t know why,” he said, “but they are a little soft—delicate.” He rubbed his finger and thumb together, as if feeling a piece of cloth. “They face people in a very gentle way.” He also said, “The military is a black box, and no one knows what happens inside.”

The following day, I overheard a conversation between members of the crowd and a lieutenant colonel standing next to a tank that was blocking the entrance road leading to the Ministry of Interior.

“How long will you be here?” they asked him

“Until you guys calm down,” he replied. He seemed a little frustrated by his deployment. “You guys are taking it too far. You’ve been silent for thirty years and for them that means that you were happy. Now you have demonstrated. You have delivered the message, but now you are going to rip the country apart.”

The soldier was upset. Perhaps he saw, as the regime was telling people on state-TV channels, a foreign and Islamist conspiracy. Someone from the crowd offered him a bottle of water.

“I want to know where all this stuff is coming from,” he said. “Where is the money coming from? In whose interest is all this?” He swept his arm toward the huge crowds in the square.

The most violent phase of the Tahrir revolution came on February 2nd, when protesters decisively held the square against crowds loyal to the regime. In the afternoon, a pro-Mubarak crowd several thousand strong pushed its way onto the square, at one point charging on horses and camels. Through the afternoon, the protesters beat the pro-Mubarak crowd back to the perimeter by running at them and hurling stones. At dusk, I saw soldiers stationed at an entrance to the square by Qasr al Nil Bridge crawl inside their tanks, which were parked between the protesters and a large pro-Mubarak crowd, and secure the hatches. The tanks formed a front line as the pro-Mubarak crowd taunted the protesters. Suddenly, stones started flying back and forth. There are nine roads and numerous alleys that lead into Tahrir Square, and almost every point of access was under siege: it seemed an impossible space to defend. Yet, over the next several hours, I watched as the protesters held the square that they had fought to occupy five days before.

The protesters quarried paving stones from the square and ripped sections of metal fencing from around a construction site, for use as shields. At times, the battle became entirely obscured in dust, and one could hear only the sound of stones plinking against the parked tanks. Burning wads of garbage skidded across the tarmac, leaving trails of flames, which the protesters tried to stamp out. At around eight o’clock, the protesters launched a thick volley of stones as covering fire for a vanguard that rushed out and chased the pro-Mubarak group around the curve of an access road and onto the street directly beneath my balcony. The pro-Mubarak group scattered, some taking cover in the entrance to a derelict building, emerging to lob burning missiles at the advancing protesters. During the next few hours, the pro-Mubarak group leaked away into the dark. The protesters quickly erected a barricade out of street signs and bits of metal fencing. Whenever a pro-Mubarak group came forward, the protesters banged on metal, to summon reinforcements from the heart of the square.

At daybreak the next morning, the square was subdued, as if people were in disbelief at what had happened. I walked onto the square past the tanks, their paint chipped where the stones had hit them. An officer, tired and unshaven, was leaning out of the top hatch, reading the morning paper and talking on his cell phone. I asked one of the soldiers why they had not intervened the night before.

“What could we do?” he said. “We’re not going to fire on people, after all. They were throwing Molotov cocktails at each other. One just happened to land on us.”

He pointed at a scorch mark.

“And what will happen today?” I asked him.

“I hope it will be quieter, peaceful,” he said, as every soldier everywhere hopes each morning. “It’s our country and we should fear for it.”

Around us, men were filling burlap sacks with paving chunks and ferrying them to the barricades, in case of new attacks. Others slept, curled up in flower beds and gutters. Many had bandaged heads or taped-up noses and were hobbling along or gingerly cradling arms held in slings. People had tied pieces of cardboard to their heads with string and were using polystyrene boxes or plastic paint buckets as helmets. At the north end of the square, by the Egyptian Museum, the battle had lasted all night and was still raging. I could see an arc of rocks rising beyond a barricade made of scrap metal and overturned burned cars.

A knot of protesters came past, jostling and shouting; an officer in the security forces had been found. “Don’t hand him over! We should keep him!” one protester shouted. “No!” someone yelled back. “We’ll tie him to the fence!” The man was hurried along, and I noticed that the protesters were careful to shield him from the beating that others in the crowd wanted to give him.

I started talking to a pharmacist who had been among the front-line medics tending to the wounded. (Pharmacists receive first-aid medical training as part of their studies.) His name was Sherif Omar and he was thirty years old, with the soft eyes and dark wavy hair of a matinée idol. His white coat was bloodstained. “I look like a butcher!” he said, and laughed. He had manned a mobile field station through the night, moving back and forth as the fighting ebbed and flowed. I asked him about numbers of wounded from the battle. “There are no statistics,” he said. “Hundreds, I can tell you. At around four or four-fifteen, our guys went on top of that bridge to get them off.” He pointed to the overpass behind the museum, which had been the last stronghold of the pro-Mubarak group. He had treated burns from Molotov cocktails and held in his arms two people who were killed by live ammunition.

As we talked, a platoon of soldiers marched past. The crowd chanted, “The people and the Army are one hand!” The slogan had become an important tenet of the revolution. The protesters seemed to be trying to chant their way out of a paradox that threatened their efforts: they were calling for the overthrow of a regime that, since its beginnings, in 1952, had been dominated by the military establishment.

As the soldiers passed by, Sherif was holding out a charred tear-gas cannister for me to see. He viewed it as evidence that many of the pro-Mubarak people were connected to the security services and had been drafted by the regime. He called them mercenaries, and said that some of those he had treated in his field hospital turned out to have police I.D.s and crisp Egyptian hundred-pound notes in their pockets.

At that moment, General Hassan al-Roweny, the commander of the Army in Cairo, marched through the barricade surrounded by soldiers and military police in scarlet berets. He came over and began to upbraid Sherif, brusquely waving his hands. He said that the protesters should leave the square, and that all this chaos was the work of foreign forces conspiring to destabilize Egypt. Sherif scoffed at this idea, and Roweny went up to a wounded protester and ripped a bandage from his head, crying, “Look, it’s just a bruise!” I saw a patch of dried blood near the man’s hairline. Roweny moved on to another man, who had a wad of cotton bandaged to a wound on his scalp, and gave another sharp tug, but the bandage would not come off, because it was stuck with dried blood. Then something strange happened. Roweny caught the man in a strangling hug and kissed him forcefully on the forehead, as if the man were a recalcitrant son whom he simultaneously loved and despaired of. Afterward, Sherif wondered, “Why was he ripping off people’s bandages? We had to put them back on again!”


I met Sherif often on the square. He told me that he was from Alexandria, and that seven or eight years ago, when he was still in college, he had decided to ignore politics. He had picked up a copy of Time and saw headlines on the Iraq War—President Bush, Israel and Palestine, terrorism. Then he realized that the magazine was from 1991. “I thought to myself, It’s the same news, it’s the same politics. It’s not going to change.” Now, sitting by a tent in the square, surrounded by hundreds of thousands of people demanding an end to Mubarak’s regime, he smiled ruefully at his former apathy. “Now I have an opinion. Now I am talking about politics.”

For Sherif, the turning point had come on the Friday of Rage, when people marching to the square encountered riot police wielding batons and firing rubber bullets and tear gas. It was the first anti-regime demonstration he had been to. “Actually, I wasn’t for Mubarak leaving but for a correction of the system. I thought, Why are people being so radical?” But the police brutality that day convinced him that the regime had to go. “Everyone was gasping for air, and simultaneously they turned on the water hoses and beat us with batons. They were beating the poo poo out of people without even giving them a chance to retreat.” Sherif suffers from asthma, and he was choking. “I had been in the midst of tear gas for three or four hours. At some point, I couldn’t breathe or see where I was going. There was a guy in front of me who was in the same condition, and he said, ‘I think we’re going to die here today.’ I think everyone felt like that.”


In the days after the battle for the square, the Army deployed more soldiers, and secured several entrances to the square with concertina wire. It felt as if Cairo had been divided into two realities: inside the square and outside. Outside, the threat of beatings from pro-Mubarak bands lingered. News and rumors circulated that the security services had arrested several human-rights lawyers, and that activists and journalists were being detained, and having their equipment impounded, by the Army and security elements. Many people, including my translator, Mohamed El Dahshan, a journalist and dedicated Twitterer, were assaulted by vigilante groups. The groups had formed to guard their local streets at night when the police vanished after the Friday of Rage, and some of them now seemed to accept the government line that the crisis was the fault of foreign forces and people with laptops.

Inside was the Republic of Tahrir, where the protesters had established a kind of revolutionary utopia. As you came through the barricades by the Qasr al Nil Bridge, a funnel of protesters cheered and clapped and chanted, “Welcome! Welcome to the free, who have joined the revolutionaries!” The scene was indescribably moving. There was no hierarchy or formal organization on the square, and yet lines of protesters guarded the barricades while others swept the garbage into neat piles and manned the checkpoints to search people for weapons. People brought food and water and medicine into the square and gave it out for free. “We are queuing up!” one activist who had named his tent the Freedom Motel told me, incredulous at the number of people flowing into the square. “When was the last time you saw an Egyptian queuing up?” I asked one young female volunteer in a floral head scarf if she was with any particular organization. “I am with no one,” she replied simply. “I am with the people.”


“It’s getting more complicated by the hour,” Sherif told me at one point. “The solutions we required a week ago are no longer valid. The ceiling of democracy is getting higher.” The more the regime resisted the demands of the protesters, the bolder the demands grew. After three days of protest, Mubarak had addressed the nation, and appointed Omar Suleiman, the national-intelligence chief, as Vice-President. In a second address, Mubarak promised that he would not seek reëlection in the September Presidential elections. Several people told me that they thought his concession was adequate; they had waited thirty years, they could wait another six months or so. But the violence of February 2nd, which everyone assumed was state-sponsored, destroyed people’s trust in Presidential proclamations.

Nabil Fahmy, the Egyptian Ambassador to Washington until 2008, could scarcely conceal his anger when he spoke of the mobs attacking protesters. I asked him if he could be certain that the violence had been organized. He snorted: perhaps there had been genuine Mubarak supporters among them, but he was dismayed by the all-too-convenient absence of any state intervention to stop the violence. Like many Egyptians, he seemed to be struggling to make sense of the speed of events that had shaken the assumptions of the country’s élite, and he worried that national values had been eroded. “It made me question what our generation and the older generation had done,” he said. He also told me about the moment when he had realized the strength and the resolution of the young activists who initiated the protests. Early in the protests, when the regime imposed a curfew, his son and a group of friends had been on the square all day and had come back to his apartment building, just two blocks away, to rest. He had invited them all to sleep there, but they were determined to go back to the square. He reminded them that there was a curfew. “They said, ‘Who applies this curfew?’ They said this very simply and confidently, and it struck me that these kids now finally believe in the ownership of their country.”

In the square, behind a rectangle of white tarpaulin that was hung against an apartment building to make a video screen, a travel agency had been given over to opposition-party officials who came in and out of the square. Various politicians addressed the crowd—including Ayman Noor, who ran against Mubarak in the Presidential race of 2005 and was then jailed for three years—but their speeches were bland and made little impact. Most people I talked to on the square said they did not support any party.

At Friday prayer, ranks of men laid out improvised prayer mats: kaffiyehs, newspapers, an Egyptian flag, slogan placards. They wiped their hands in the dust of the destroyed paving stones, to clean them, because the Koran says that if there is no water and you are in the desert you can use sand to clean your hands before you pray. When they touched the ground with their foreheads, a little disk of dusty grit formed, stuck there by sweat. Many Egyptians are devout, but people in Tahrir tended to speculate that electoral support for the Muslim Brotherhood, the officially banned but semi-tolerated Islamist party, would be only between ten and twenty per cent.

The Muslim Brotherhood had a strong, but certainly not a majority, presence on the square. “Our strategy was going to the event but not leading it,” said Dr. Essam El-Erian, a member of the Guidance Council of the Brotherhood, when I met him in the Brotherhood’s shabby headquarters, on the third floor of a nondescript apartment building. He explained that the Brotherhood had taken a passive position so that the government could not use the movement’s involvement as an excuse to crack down. Nevertheless, he and thirty-three other Muslim Brothers were arrested two days into the protests. El-Erian has been arrested several times during his career, and once spent eight years in jail. He laughed and said that this was his shortest-ever detention. On the night of Sunday, January 30th, as the Interior Ministry appeared to cease functioning, the prison gates were left open and he walked free.

For decades, politics in the Middle East has been depicted as a choice between dictators and Islamists, and El-Erian was naturally at pains to dispel this assumption. He said that the Brotherhood would not field a candidate in the next Presidential election or contest every constituency in the parliamentary election, and spoke in vague terms of a hope that Egypt might show to the world a different style of democracy—“another moderate, tolerant model.” The Muslim Brothers I met on the square conveyed a similar message, but it was hard to know what this party—banned for more than half a century in Egypt and demonized abroad—might do if it had power. The Muslim Brotherhood has “a long-term vision of society, and it has been very consistent,” a Western diplomat told me. “Politics is just part of it.”

As the standoff continued, the protesters became entrenched and emboldened. People made a tent city out of concrete reinforcing rods and plastic sheeting; venders set up braziers for tea and hooked up yards of electrical cable to charge dozens of cell phones at a time; people rearranged the stockpiled stones to spell out anti-Mubarak slogans; new blankets were passed out. There was an abundance of homemade placards. Egyptians have a fine satirical sense; a man held up a sign that said “Leave Already, My Arms Are Tired.” But, after decades of political repression, some protesters seemed to have no idea of the sort of message most suited to being on a placard. Alongside catchy slogans were placards bearing long, bullet-pointed tracts, painstakingly written out—interminable manifestos of grievance and demands.

“There is a psychological barrier of fear in revolution,” the novelist Alaa Al Aswany told me, adding that once the barrier is broken the process is “irreversible.” Aswany, like many on the square, had suffered police harassment. Despite an international literary reputation, he has never been published by the state publishing houses or allowed on Egyptian state television, and the owner of a café where he met with young writers each week had been threatened by state security. Aswany is also a practicing dentist, and I spoke with him in his surgery, close to Tahrir Square. “The regime can’t understand that people who were fearful and scared for thirty years are no longer fearful,” he said. He told me that protesters had been teasing him about the title of one of his books, “Why the Egyptian People Do Not Revolt,” saying that he should write a sequel and call it “How the Egyptian People Revolted.” He had addressed the crowds several times. “As a writer, I have written many, many times the words ‘the people,’ but it was for the first time in my life I felt what was the meaning of ‘the people.’ ” He told me that he had been very impressed. “They are very organized, very courageous, very civilized, very caring. We eat in the demonstration every day and no one knows exactly who has brought the food. It’s like a big family. I threw a packet of cigarettes on the ground, and a seventy-year-old lady picked it up and said, ‘Dr. Alaa, please take this and go and put it in the garbage, because we are building a new country and everything should be clean.’ ”

I met an activist friend of Sherif’s named Ramy Shaath. Half Palestinian and half Egyptian, Shaath had studied war strategy at King’s College, London, and spent time in demonstrations in Lebanon and Palestine during the second intifada. His day job is as a management consultant, but he has amassed experience dealing with barricades and tear gas. “It’s a hobby,” he said, smiling. Shaath’s hobby had made him well known to the authorities. He told me that, on the Friday of Rage, when the police were overwhelmed, he had been tempted to run into the Mogamma and retrieve the security file with his name on it. “I even know which room it’s in—second floor, last on the left!”

On the Internet, Shaath and other activists gathered ideas for countering riot police. He enumerated a few improvised tactics: “How to use vinegar and onions against tear gas. Things like, Don’t use water, use Coke to wipe your eyes.” Referring to the protests in Tunisia which had recently succeeded in deposing the President there, he added, “We got a lot of ideas from Tunisia because a lot of Tunisians were contributing to the blogs.” For the first week of the protests, he had stayed at a different place every night and continually changed his cell-phone numbers. “A few days ago, I stopped,” he told me. He spread his hands out in victorious amusement at such a turn of events. “End of story. Game over. The fear is over!”


I went to see Amre Moussa, the secretary-general of the Arab League and a former foreign minister of Egypt. Together with Nabil Fahmy and other notables, he had joined an informal committee of “wise men” who wanted to help bring the demands of the youth and the people on the square to Vice-President Suleiman. Seventy-four years old, Moussa is vigorous, erudite, and charming. On the square, I had often heard him mentioned as a good man to lead the country. People respected him as an independent elder statesman. Moussa told me, “The square became a place that if you don’t go you have missed a historical moment.” He believed that the regime had initially tried to ride out the storm: “Perhaps some thought that those demonstrators would get tired and fade day after day, week after week, but everyone saw that yesterday there were more people than ever since it began.” Now their efforts at reform were no longer a luxury but had become a “question of necessity.”

In the days after the clashes, the Army tried to exert control. General Roweny could be seen striding up the road toward the Egyptian Museum, behind which the Army had made an impromptu headquarters. Sherif told me that the day after Roweny was tearing off bandages he returned with an Egyptian news crew and again confronted Sherif and his band of medics. He told them to go home and “end this silly business.” Sherif replied, “You call the blood of Egyptians silly business!” Roweny told Sherif that the Army was resolved to clear the square, because it wanted to resume normal traffic circulation the next day. “We can’t use violence, but we can be very tough with people,” he warned. Sherif asked what he meant by tough. “Like from a father to a child,” Roweny replied, smiling and answering questions in front of the TV cameras. Afterward, he addressed the crowds in the square, telling them, “You all have the right to express yourselves, but please save what is left of Egypt.” The crowd, cheering, responded that Hosni Mubarak should leave. Roweny abandoned his speech, saying, “I will not speak amid such chants.”

At one point, the Army tried to push a line of tanks farther into the square, near the Egyptian Museum. But the protesters staged a sit-in under the tanks. I sat down among them and talked to a man whose body was scaly with psoriasis. He came from a small village not far from Cairo and worked in a lowly capacity for the local municipality. He said that his salary of seven hundred Egyptian pounds (around a hundred and twenty dollars) was not enough to feed his family and pay for treatment for his skin complaint. He tried to explain the situation: “The Army is trying to tighten the space and get people farther into the square.” When I returned the next day, the protesters had settled in, storing sandwiches and blankets in the niches between the tank wheels and tracks, sleeping under the turrets, and praying five times a day in neat rows. When the tanks had first arrived, the protesters had eyed them like mysterious beasts; they now seemed tamed. Parents would stand their children on top of them and take photographs. The soldiers pretended not to mind this domestication.

The Army, though ostensibly neutral, was obviously invested in the status quo. After Mubarak fired most of his Cabinet, in the first days of the protests, the military establishment found itself in control of the key posts of government. Suleiman, the former head of military intelligence, was Vice-President, and Ahmed Shafik, a former head of the Air Force (as Mubarak himself was), became the new Prime Minister. Meanwhile, Field Marshal Mohamed Hussein Tantawi remained in the position he had held for almost twenty years, Minister of Defense and Military Production. Initially, this triumvirate seemed to form a Praetorian guard around the regime; they were all military men, all in or nearing their seventies, and all close to Mubarak. At the time, the Western diplomat told me that there were no significant differences between Suleiman and his President; that the regime thought it could ride the protests out; and that Mubarak would hold fast to the idea that the protests were the work of foreign machination—“a rock-solid point of view that we have seen from him for many years.” Tantawi, the diplomat hoped, would continue to cleave to the Army’s policy of nonviolence: “Yes, he’s a product of the regime and he’s perfectly happy to arrest people, but he’s not going to shoot them.”

It now seems likely that there were always differences between the military establishment and the most loyal elements of the regime—Mubarak’s inner circle, the Interior Ministry and the police, N.D.P. strongmen, and the domestic security services. It is perhaps for this reason that, in the days that followed, the pronouncements of the military triumvirate, like the mercurial behavior of General Roweny on the square, seemed to veer between conciliation and impatient threats. After the clashes with pro-Mubarak crowds, Prime Minister Shafik apologized for the violence on national TV, and there was an effort at dialogue between the Vice-President and some of the opposition groups. But, only a few days later, Suleiman seemed to threaten a martial crackdown. At the time, it was hard to see where the balance of power lay between the regime and the security and military establishments, but throughout the protests in Cairo there were two constants that proved decisive: the Army never fired on the protesters, and it never prevented people from coming onto the square.

The military establishment had never liked Mubarak’s son Gamal, widely despised as being at the center of a group of cronies who cashed in on liberal economic reforms of the past decade. In recent years, senior officers had expressed discomfort with his implicit anointment as heir. When Mubarak appointed Suleiman as Vice-President, traditionally the position occupied by a successor, they may have been satisfied. But the crowds on the square were not, and, in the days that followed, they managed, through their numbers, and by continually reiterating their trust in the Army, to coöpt the military as a reluctant revolutionary partner.

In the second week of protests, beyond the square, Cairo returned to work. Banks reopened, and the roads resumed their customary state of honking gridlock. And yet the numbers on the square continued to grow. At lunchtime and after work, people streamed in to take part in this phenomenon of freedom. It seemed that everyone I talked to insisted that they had been there since the first day. “People are trying to join the circus,” one activist said, laughing.

Sherif went back to work, too, but returned each afternoon to his friends on the square. After his first day back in the “real world,” as he described it—wondering what the real world was anymore—he admitted that he had been “very down. It has started to settle in, all the bloodshed.” But being among his new friends—none of the volunteer medics on Tahrir had known one another before the protests—had cheered him up. “It’s amazing how peaceful it is here, and outside is all the hustle and bustle. I walked through the square, and it gives you hope, that this is not all for nothing, that something is going to happen.” He was beginning to go to activist meetings, groups of young people who had met on the square or who knew one another through the blogosphere, to discuss how to go forward. “The lack of leadership is a positive and a negative,” he had said at one point, “but it shows that this really is a revolution of the people.”

We discussed possible leaders. None of the opposition parties had been able to garner any significant support among the protesters. Most seemed well-meaning but amateurish, and were headed by an older generation. I mentioned Mohamed ElBaradei, the Nobel Peace Prize laureate, who had returned to Egypt from Vienna, where he lives, and quickly became associated with the protests. Sherif, like many on the square, was unimpressed: “Baradei? Where is he? He came to the square for four or five minutes and then left. My sister says he’s on the news channels every five minutes, saying, I did this and I did that and I said all that and I predicted that. But he’s been in Vienna this whole time.”

Without a clear leader or a dominant ideology, the square had become a kind of speakers’ corner. A veiled woman told of her dream of the Prophet Muhammad circling the square; a psychiatrist held a small crowd spellbound with his theory that Mubarak was a psychopath. People pressed photocopied manifestos into my hands and asked me why President Obama was equivocating. Everyone had become an expert on the Egyptian constitution and the clauses that set the criteria for Presidential and parliamentary candidates. They talked about the Turkey model, with the military as the guarantor of the state. Sherif remarked that the square had become like a university of political science—“the rate of learning is incredible for everyone.” He wanted to be involved. “We can’t let the blood of the martyrs and the injured go to waste. They were killed for a cause, and we have to go through with it. I can’t go back to my normal life as if nothing had happened.”

Against this background of expectant fervor, on February 10th everyone—the C.I.A., CNN, the head of the N.D.P., the Egyptian Prime Minister, Barack Obama, and even the bandage-pulling General Roweny, who told the crowds, “All your demands will be met today”—believed that Mubarak would announce that he was stepping down. There was a rainstorm at lunchtime, a sign of good luck in a desert country, and afterward a rainbow came out and was tweeted all over the world.

At 10:45 P.M., Mubarak began to speak, and the crowd went quiet. Mohamed, my translator, had gone home, to attend his brother’s engagement party, and so I understood the speech largely through the crowd’s reaction to it. Mubarak’s voice echoed amid loudspeakers on the square—scratchy, low, stentorian, and occasionally inflected with a twang of feedback. People listened on cell phones, and in the tents at the center of the square dozens of heads were bent over the glow of a laptop screen. Gradually, the faces of those around me grew stony as people realized that they had heard this speech before. About halfway through, a hissing exhalation of disbelief rose up. I later found that this was at the moment when Mubarak patronizingly reminded his listeners that he had once been young himself. From then on, people stopped listening. They cradled their heads in their hands, silent with shock and despair. One by one, they held up their shoes in the air in contempt. And, when Mubarak finished speaking, there was a great roaring, defiant chant of “Leave! Leave! Leave!” They punched the air in fury. One man behind me screamed and collapsed, sobbing uncontrollably. Someone standing next to me told me that his brother had been killed in the protests. People tried to console him, but he suddenly went berserk, screaming and kicking. Four or five people tried to hold him down but could not control his rage. Behind him, a man prayed with his palms made into fists.

I found Sherif by the field clinic next to the barricade. He was wearing an Egyptian-flag bandanna around his head. His expression was uncomprehending and blankly exhausted. “I’m not sure if he gets it,” he said. He was trying to fathom Mubarak’s gargantuan level of denial. “We were already celebrating and now”—he cut the air with his hand—“no one knows what’s happening.” There was a hardness in his face which I had not seen before. He advised me to stay in the hotel tomorrow. “Will it be bad?” I asked. “It’s possible, it’s possible,” he said. “I don’t know what this idiot is going to pull out of his hat.” Sherif decided to spend the night on the square.

Mubarak never actually resigned, and it was left to Omar Suleiman to announce his departure, the next day. On the square, the news was greeted with a wall of whistling cheer and a blur of flags. It was an exultant, unified joy. The traffic lights were showing all their colors simultaneously, like disco gels. Fire flares, apparently made by ignited cans of air freshener, burst in the crowd. There were no sentences, just a word—“amazing”—repeated over and over. Protesters hugged the soldiers, who climbed out of their tanks and took off their helmets to join the party. I watched someone shake the hand of an officer and proudly take a picture of his small son with the man.

Sherif was not on the square for the announcement and missed the extraordinary scenes, but he saw something ultimately more revealing. That day, crowds had marched peacefully toward the Presidential Palace, at Heliopolis, northeast of Tahrir, and Sherif decided to go there, too. At around four o’clock, a couple of hours before Suleiman’s speech, he was outside the palace, dressing a few wounds. Several tanks were stationed there, their cannons pointing in the direction of the crowd, but, as Sherif watched, the tanks turned their turrets—it seemed, he said, to happen in slow motion—so that the cannons were pointing at the palace. Then the soldiers started waving Egyptian flags and chanting with the crowd, “Egypt! Egypt! The Army and the people are one hand!”


The next morning, I sat in a café on the square, talking over the events. Everyone was reading the newspapers, and across the room I saw a news photograph of General Roweny reaching to shake the hand of another officer, against a background of the Tahrir crowd. The man with the paper said it was an old picture, from the times when the Army had first come to the square.

“Is he good?” I asked about Roweny.

“Now, yes!” the man said.

“What about before?”

He waggled his hand in equivocation and grimaced. “Who knows?”

Alaa Al Aswany had told me that he thought the Egyptian revolution would fundamentally change the Middle East paradigm of an apathetic populace oppressed by dictators and retreating into Islam. “We are seeing now the end of the post-independence dictatorships in the Arab world,” he said. “What we see now is the end of this era. Western analysts are totally confused, because it goes far beyond Mr. Mubarak. The political analysts in the West are going to have to throw away their old books.”

That afternoon, I met Mahmoud Zaher, a retired general in Egypt’s military-intelligence apparatus who now fulfilled a role whose contours he was hesitant to define. When I arrived at his home, next to a mosque in a pleasant neighborhood on the left bank of the Nile, he was praying. He was a gracious host, sitting very upright while his son, who, he told me, had been many days on the square, brought glasses of fresh orange juice and cups of Turkish coffee. When I asked questions, his answers tended to skirt specifics, forming themselves into disquisitions on theoretical matters of national history and character. A wry smile would pull in the corners of his mustache, as if he were saying, “Yes, well, of course that’s the obvious question, and I know very well what the answer is, but how can I put it?”

He was no defender of Mubarak, who he felt had “become a corrupt influence for Egypt and the reputation of the military establishment.” He was certain that until the end Mubarak had wanted to use the forces of violence and chaos—possibly by deploying the Republican Guard, which is loyal to the President rather than to the nation—in order to make a crackdown look justified. I asked him if someone in the military had “put him on a helicopter”—if the mechanics of what had occurred added up to a coup. He demurred for a moment before replying, “There is a big difference in what can be said and what must be done.” He paused. “What happened is that the very strong and legitimate desire of the people of the revolution of Egypt in this moment became inherent to the military institution.” He said that if a person “reaches a point of insensitivity and is incapable of realizing the right decision at the right time, others need to take his hand.”

He spoke of the Army as “the servant to the people and popular desire,” but he emphasized that the role of the Army in Egypt was not confined to the military sphere, that it was “politically influential and politically involved and politically distinct.” It did not seem that he wanted or expected the situation to change, and he spoke about the possibility that there might in the future be “limitations” to the Egyptian political system “which may cause some outsiders to say that our democracy is different from their democracy.” He expressed the view that whoever became President should have a military background.


On the square, throngs of people were out with brooms, jubilantly cleaning up their country. They carted away loose chunks of paving and piled up the scrap-metal frames of their tents. I saw one man carrying a black garbage bag with a sign across his chest: “Yesterday I was a demonstrator. Today I build Egypt.” I met a couple of young students from the American University in Cairo, carrying brooms. One said that she had been discussing this new community spirit with her father. “We thought people didn’t care,” she said, “and just threw their garbage on the street, but now we see that they just thought it was hopeless—why bother when it’s so dirty. Why not be corrupt when everything is corrupted. But now things have changed, and it’s a different mood overtaking. Even I can’t stop smiling myself.”

I caught up with Sherif and asked him about his group of political activists. They had decided that they would continue to meet and discuss ways in which they could help the country but wouldn’t form a political party. I asked him if he was worried that the Army might take control entirely. He said that there was bound to be chaos in the future and that friends of his had expressed concern. “But I was saying, ‘Guys, look what we have done already. There’s no impossible.’ ” Many people celebrating said that there could never be another dictator now that the public had found its political voice. “We know the way to Tahrir Square,” one told me.

Petey
Nov 26, 2005

For who knows what is good for a person in life, during the few and meaningless days they pass through like a shadow? Who can tell them what will happen under the sun after they are gone?
Earlier I posted this:

Petey posted:

No, it's speculators.

e: let me elaborate. There are two components to the price of a barrel of oil. There is what you might sloppily call the primary price, which is something like a rough equilibrium between supply and demand at a healthy profit margin. Then there is the speculative price, which is a function of a futures contract placed by speculators, who are essentially trading agreements to pay what they believe the price of oil to be in the future. This fluctuates wildly as traders do.

Almost no single thing you read about actually affects the day to day supply of oil, at least with the immediacy it obtains at the price at the pump (even if the strait of Hormuz was closed entirely, oil shipped yesterday would still take some time to arrive at refineries, and then be refined, and be available). What affects day to day prices is huge, tremendous amounts of speculative trading on the stock market. Some economists have put as much as 60% of the cost of oil at the pump is actually just inflation based on these futures speculations, as opposed to a more "natural" price more closely related to supply/demand.

e2: more reading for a lay audience- http://money.howstuffworks.com/oil-speculation-raise-gas-price1.htm



And now we have more of it:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-07/saudi-arabia-s-day-of-rage-lures-record-bets-on-200-oil-chart-of-day.html

quote:

Options traders are betting more than ever that crude oil is heading to $200 a barrel as some websites call for a “Day of Rage” in Saudi Arabia and anti- government protests spread in the Middle East and North Africa.

The CHART OF THE DAY shows open interest, or the number of outstanding contracts, for “call” options to buy New York crude for June delivery at $200 a barrel. The number has escalated, along with crude futures, to the highest since the options started trading in July 2009 amid worsening civil unrest in Libya and rare demonstrations in Saudi Arabia.

...

Call options grant the holder the right, but not the obligation, to buy a security at an agreed price before a set date. The $200 June New York crude options expire May 17. Oil rose to $106.45 a barrel today, the highest intraday price since Sept. 29, 2008


In other words, the reason why gas is so loving expensive right now is not because of actual problems with the supply of oil, but because bankers continue to suck.

Petey
Nov 26, 2005

For who knows what is good for a person in life, during the few and meaningless days they pass through like a shadow? Who can tell them what will happen under the sun after they are gone?

Mr Plow posted:

The price that reflects how much of something we have left and how much we can expect to have in the future is the "natural" price and the price that reflects supply and demand. A price that didn't would be insanity and would represent a gross mismanagement of resources.


Read my post again.I agree with you. The problem is that the current spike is unrelated to a shift In either supply or demand. it is a function of commodities speculation.

Petey
Nov 26, 2005

For who knows what is good for a person in life, during the few and meaningless days they pass through like a shadow? Who can tell them what will happen under the sun after they are gone?

Leperflesh posted:

Well, to be fair, the commodities speculators are speculating that the price for the commodity will rise due to future drop in supply.

I don't think we know that necessarily. This wasn't the case at all just before the GFC, when oil was well over $100 / barrel with no supply shocks of any kind. That was entirely speculative. While we don't have any evidence one way or the other, I'm inclined to presume that this largely is too.

Mr Plow posted:

I agree, which is why I take some issue with the blanket assertion that speculation is bad that seemed to be floating around a page back, but I also acknowledge that speculation can be unreasonable.

Speculation is bad. Full stop. There is some reason to hedge occasionally. There were legitimate uses for interest rate swaps too. But that's not what any of this is. This is banks being casinos.

Petey
Nov 26, 2005

For who knows what is good for a person in life, during the few and meaningless days they pass through like a shadow? Who can tell them what will happen under the sun after they are gone?

Leperflesh posted:

Um, have you seen the headlines? Apparently there's some unrest going on in some of those sandy hot oil places.

That's about all the evidence you'd need, to guess that oil prices are rising based on speculation that oil production might fall in the near future.

Except that the oil prices were already rising before the Saudi Arabian news, midway through the Libyan crisis, even though the Libyan crisis was not commensurate in severity with the severity of the price shocks, largely because people were running around insane on Wall Street rather than actually trying to figure out what a reasonable impact on supply and demand might be.

I mean I know you're being somewhat facetious here, but I'm trying to point out that there is a lot of inflation in oil commodities / futures / etc (as there are in other commodities markets and derivatives) and it has very little to do with actual conditions on the ground than with trading floor jackoffery.

Petey
Nov 26, 2005

For who knows what is good for a person in life, during the few and meaningless days they pass through like a shadow? Who can tell them what will happen under the sun after they are gone?
For the next 90 minutes I am in a meeting with PJ Crowley, asst secstate, about social media and the revolutions. If you have a question about something related to this post it and I will try to ask.

Petey
Nov 26, 2005

For who knows what is good for a person in life, during the few and meaningless days they pass through like a shadow? Who can tell them what will happen under the sun after they are gone?

Sivias posted:

I'd be interested as to if the officials are following social media news sources as closely as everyone else, or if they have 'official' sources that they get their information from.
Although, this may be a bit of a silly question to ask. It's admittedly a bit shallow.

Asked him how the availability of on the ground info as opposed to stuff from Langley shaped the response. Not sure if he understood what I meant though - his response was mostly about understanding how to engage with foreign centers ofinterest. He did say to someone else that the availability of stuff had definitely changed the rapidity of response and international pressure.

Just said the US is down to 5% popularity in Pakistan, Jesus.

Petey
Nov 26, 2005

For who knows what is good for a person in life, during the few and meaningless days they pass through like a shadow? Who can tell them what will happen under the sun after they are gone?
Someone just confronted him about Bradley manning's torture. Too complex response to post now. Very interesting.

Petey
Nov 26, 2005

For who knows what is good for a person in life, during the few and meaningless days they pass through like a shadow? Who can tell them what will happen under the sun after they are gone?

Xandu posted:

It's impossible to overstate how big of a deal the Raymond Davis is over there.

That's what he said.

Petey
Nov 26, 2005

For who knows what is good for a person in life, during the few and meaningless days they pass through like a shadow? Who can tell them what will happen under the sun after they are gone?
As a followup to this:

Petey posted:

No, it's speculators.

e: let me elaborate. There are two components to the price of a barrel of oil. There is what you might sloppily call the primary price, which is something like a rough equilibrium between supply and demand at a healthy profit margin. Then there is the speculative price, which is a function of a futures contract placed by speculators, who are essentially trading agreements to pay what they believe the price of oil to be in the future. This fluctuates wildly as traders do.

Almost no single thing you read about actually affects the day to day supply of oil, at least with the immediacy it obtains at the price at the pump (even if the strait of Hormuz was closed entirely, oil shipped yesterday would still take some time to arrive at refineries, and then be refined, and be available). What affects day to day prices is huge, tremendous amounts of speculative trading on the stock market. Some economists have put as much as 60% of the cost of oil at the pump is actually just inflation based on these futures speculations, as opposed to a more "natural" price more closely related to supply/demand.

e2: more reading for a lay audience- http://money.howstuffworks.com/oil-speculation-raise-gas-price1.htm

I posted this thread:

http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3396041&userid=0&perpage=40&pagenumber=1

For those of you who were interested in the topic, so it wouldn't derail here.

Petey
Nov 26, 2005

For who knows what is good for a person in life, during the few and meaningless days they pass through like a shadow? Who can tell them what will happen under the sun after they are gone?

Petey posted:

Someone just confronted him about Bradley manning's torture. Too complex response to post now. Very interesting.

Tadhg posted:

^^^^ Holy poo poo, wanna hear about how that one went.

This is how:

http://edition.cnn.com/2011/POLITICS/03/13/crowley.stepping.down/

quote:


Washington (CNN) -- P.J. Crowley abruptly resigned Sunday as State Department spokesman over controversial comments he made about the Bradley Manning case.


Sources close to the matter the resignation, first reported by CNN, came under pressure from the White House, where officials were furious about his suggestion that the Obama administration is mistreating Manning, the Army private who is being held in solitary confinement in Quantico, Virginia, under suspicion that he leaked highly classified State Department cables to the website Wikileaks.

Speaking to a small group at MIT last week, Crowley was asked about allegations that Manning is being tortured and kicked up a firestorm by answering that what is being done to Manning by Defense Department officials "is ridiculous and counterproductive and stupid."

Crowley did add that "nonetheless, Bradley Manning is in the right place" because of his alleged crimes, according to a blog post by BBC reporter Philippa Thomas, who was present at Crowley's talk.

"The unauthorized disclosure of classified information is a serious crime under U.S. law," Crowley said in a statement Sunday. "My recent comments regarding the conditions of the pre-trial detention of Private First Class Bradley Manning were intended to highlight the broader, even strategic impact of discreet actions undertaken by national security agencies every day and their impact on our global standing and leadership.

"The exercise of power in today's challenging times and relentless media environment must be prudent and consistent with our laws and values," Crowley said. "Given the impact of my remarks, for which I take full responsibility, I have submitted my resignation."

Crowley has told friends that he is deeply concerned that mistreatment of Manning could undermine the legitimate prosecution of the young private. Crowley has also made clear he has the Obama administration's best interests at heart because he thinks any mistreatment of Manning could be damaging around the world to President Obama, who has tried to end the perception that the U.S. tortures prisoners.

Nevertheless, Crowley's political fate was sealed on Friday when Obama was asked at a White House news conference about his comments regarding Manning.

Obama revealed that he had asked Pentagon officials "whether or not the procedures that have been taken in terms of (Manning's) confinement are appropriate and are meeting our basic standards."

In a comment that drew howls of protest from liberals, Obama added that Pentagon officials "assure me that they are. I can't go into details about some of their concerns, but some of this has to do with Private Manning's safety as well."

Manning's treatment has become a flashpoint for liberals, with Amnesty International noting he has been confined to a windowless cell for 23 hours a day, is stripped down to his boxers at night and is not given pillows or blankets.

Manning's lawyer also says the young private recently had to sleep in the nude because defense officials thought there was a suicide threat and decided to take away his boxer shorts.

Crowley is highly respected on foreign policy matters, dating back to his time as National Security Council spokesman under then-President Bill Clinton. He has been the Obama administration's public face on many international stories as the daily briefer at the State Department for Secretary Hillary Clinton.

But he has not had a completely smooth relationship with officials in the Obama White House, and eyebrows were raised several months ago when White House aide Mike Hammer was sent over to the State Department to serve as Crowley's deputy.


Hammer will replace Crowley as the assistant secretary for public affairs, Hillary Clinton said in a statement Sunday.

She said she accepted Crowley's resignation "with regret."

"P.J. has served our nation with distinction for more than three decades, in uniform and as a civilian," she said. "His service to country is motivated by a deep devotion to public policy and public diplomacy, and I wish him the very best."

A little-known factor in Crowley's comments about Manning was revealed Saturday by April Ryan, a White House correspondent for American Urban Radio who covered Crowley in the Clinton White House.

Ryan wrote on Twitter that Crowley "dislikes treatment of prisoners as his father was a Prisoner of War."

While it's true that Crowley's father was imprisoned during World War II, people close him downplay that as a major factor in his comments about Manning, saying the biggest factor is simply that Crowley believes what he said.

Asked to comment on Crowley stepping down, Tommy Vietor, spokesman for the National Security Council, referred questions to the State Department.

In the statement, Crowley said he leaves with "great admiration and affection" for his colleagues and "deep respect for the journalists who report on foreign policy and global developments every day, in many cases under dangerous conditions and subject to serious threats. Their efforts help make governments more responsible, accountable and transparent."

Petey
Nov 26, 2005

For who knows what is good for a person in life, during the few and meaningless days they pass through like a shadow? Who can tell them what will happen under the sun after they are gone?

evilweasel posted:

The resolution wasn't for a no-fly zone, it was for the use of force (without specification except the ban on an occupation) to protect civilians (and implicitly, though not explicitly, the rebels). Everyone recognized it was too late for a no-fly zone to work.

Quoting this since people seem to be missing it.

Petey
Nov 26, 2005

For who knows what is good for a person in life, during the few and meaningless days they pass through like a shadow? Who can tell them what will happen under the sun after they are gone?
Congrats Brown Moses. You've done amazing work on all of these threads. It's been really great and I am glad your work and expertise is being recognized.

Petey
Nov 26, 2005

For who knows what is good for a person in life, during the few and meaningless days they pass through like a shadow? Who can tell them what will happen under the sun after they are gone?

Nuclearmonkee posted:

Holy gently caress, I saw the thread title and expected stupid irony, not this :smith:.

RIP Vilerat. gently caress extremists.

Me too. Oh my god.

Petey
Nov 26, 2005

For who knows what is good for a person in life, during the few and meaningless days they pass through like a shadow? Who can tell them what will happen under the sun after they are gone?

Fabricated posted:

Watch Obama start a loving war

Too soon.

Petey
Nov 26, 2005

For who knows what is good for a person in life, during the few and meaningless days they pass through like a shadow? Who can tell them what will happen under the sun after they are gone?
An important clarification from Ethan Zuckerman:

quote:

It's also a story about the power of broadcast. The riots followed an Arabic translation of the video airing on an Egypt-based pan-Arab satellite channel..

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Petey
Nov 26, 2005

For who knows what is good for a person in life, during the few and meaningless days they pass through like a shadow? Who can tell them what will happen under the sun after they are gone?

Nagato posted:

An Egyptian with a criminal record funds a crappy film through a shell company named "Pharaoh Voice, Inc.", overdubs it in postproduction so it is making fun of Muhammad, pretends to be an Israeli Jew and inserts gratuitous references to Judaism, premieres it in Hollywood at a show nobody comes to, lays quiet for some months, and mysteriously on September 11, the film trailer is shown on Egyptian television.

This conspiracy theory is 95% on the way to reality.

It was broadcast on Egyptian TV on the 8th or the 9th I believe. The segment was uploaded to YouTube on the 9th in any case.

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