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I think that graph is bullshit
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# ? Feb 21, 2021 12:36 |
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# ? Apr 19, 2024 22:35 |
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I also think it is quite bullshit
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# ? Feb 21, 2021 17:28 |
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I'm renewing my mortgage this week and got 1.65% 5 year fixed.
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# ? Feb 21, 2021 17:37 |
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linoleum floors posted:I think that graph is bullshit qhat posted:I also think it is quite bullshit If you're going to claim that numbers from FRED are "bullshit," maybe you should provide your reasoning.
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# ? Feb 21, 2021 17:38 |
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People have been saying "yeah well just wait till interest rates rise and all these people will be hosed" for so long now. I'm not one to believe that the status quo lasts forever but...
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# ? Feb 21, 2021 23:25 |
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What if the simple explanation for the housing bubble was inflation targeting this whole time
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# ? Feb 21, 2021 23:29 |
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tagesschau posted:If you're going to claim that numbers from FRED are "bullshit," maybe you should provide your reasoning. My reasoning is it's a graph presented with no context on an internet forum from some place called 'fred'
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# ? Feb 22, 2021 00:13 |
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Sorry my mistake. FRED. capital letters = authority
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# ? Feb 22, 2021 00:16 |
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linoleum floors posted:Sorry my mistake. FRED. capital letters = authority FRED, you say?
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# ? Feb 22, 2021 00:22 |
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hosed Real Estate Data
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# ? Feb 22, 2021 00:27 |
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It's the St. Louis Federal Reserve's data repository. It's probably the single most reputable economic data source out there. That said I, I believe the graph is probably for the us, not Canada, based on the label.
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# ? Feb 22, 2021 00:35 |
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Good evening. I'm mostly sharing this because of the incredible image. https://twitter.com/JohnPasalis/status/1363484454501691394?s=20
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# ? Feb 22, 2021 03:53 |
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Sassafras posted:Haven't seen anything terribly interesting in Canada last few days, so here's a different USA chart-tweet along the same lines: The underlying document for this chart is here. There is raw data here called FOR which incorporates changes in the way financing/money works in the US since 1990s and it doesn't seem to have changed as much. The bulletin explains why. Details aside, there is strong emphasis on the fact that the ratio is in aggregate, so this could just be another indicator of rising inequality. It also means that even if it reflects some doings transpiring in poo poo markets like (I assume) Ohio, it doesn't mean much for hot markets like California. Or I guess Vancouver because this is a Canada thread.
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# ? Feb 22, 2021 06:36 |
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https://www.straight.com/news/vancouver-real-estate-market-crackles-with-buyers-paying-more-than-500000-over-listed-price-ofquote:Vancouver real estate: market crackles with buyers paying more than $500,000 over listed price of detached homes
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# ? Feb 22, 2021 10:30 |
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Welcome to being priced out forever.
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# ? Feb 22, 2021 10:46 |
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Cold on a Cob posted:My agent got a text while we were walking from our car to our first showing today telling us it was conditionally sold. Lol. Cat piss townhouse sold for a bit over asking price. A few 1BR condos in my neighbourhood sold for ~550k. I'm loving done.
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# ? Feb 22, 2021 13:39 |
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Cold on a Cob posted:Cat piss townhouse sold for a bit over asking price. Move to a better country, that's my plan
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# ? Feb 22, 2021 15:52 |
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Did my BC spec tax thing today. God it was easy, I remember so many people complaining about this new incredibly onerous and confusing process they had to do. You get a letter with a code on it, you put this code into a website, confirm your details, click a couple check boxes that say yes you live here, yes you earn your money here, yes this is your primary residence. Done, it took all of 2 min. Also we need to double or triple the spec tax.
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# ? Feb 22, 2021 15:56 |
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Here's a random anecdote from a random article about bidding wars in the GTA:quote:Just last weekend I showed an absolutely disgusting townhouse in a not so great part of Brampton. By disgusting I mean every wall was COVERED in filth, a kitchen that hadn’t seen a cleaning product in years, potential “fecal matter” on some of the rugs, and I am sure there had to be a bug infestation in there somewhere. We had to cut the showing short because it was just AWFUL and we didn’t want to touch anything. It was a complete gut job, everything had to go. It was listed for $425k. Just the previous week a nearly identical property in the same townhouse complex sold for $510k but it move-in ready condition (though the new listing had 3 parking spaces instead of 2 that the other had). My logical mind still valued this one less because of the extensive renovation that would be required before moving in. This mess of a property ended up getting 15 OFFERS and sold for $25,000 MORE than the nearly identical unit in much better shape that had sold just a week before. Source, if anyone cares: https://www.torontocondos.org/how-to-win-a-bidding-war/
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# ? Feb 22, 2021 18:21 |
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Baronjutter posted:Did my BC spec tax thing today. God it was easy, I remember so many people complaining about this new incredibly onerous and confusing process they had to do. You get a letter with a code on it, you put this code into a website, confirm your details, click a couple check boxes that say yes you live here, yes you earn your money here, yes this is your primary residence. Done, it took all of 2 min. Yep it's been no big deal at all, has put thousands of units on the market and generated tens of millions of dollars, but continues to make the rich furious because it specifically targets the ultra wealthy and denies them of their pied a terres that they feel they deserve. This is why it alone appeared in the Lib policy book last election as a core NDP housing policy the Libs would roll back. Rob Shaw writes of the lingering criticism in the (Liberal mouthpiece) The Orca: quote:Is the Speculation Tax working? Depends who you ask. The tax obviously worked extremely well in putting thousands of units onto the market and reducing foreign interest in Vancouver real estate. Of course housing remains unaffordable and house prices in 2020 have been spiking and so opponents of the spec tax have been going "aha! see it didn't work!" as if there wasn't currently a global pandemic and lock down effects which have completely upended the tea table and changed everything since when the tax was implemented. Even supply side left yimbys who talked down on the the spec tax, presumably because it was drawing attention away from their favoured housing solutions, have joined in with the right in gleefully pointed out that prices are rising, in hopes of proving that no, they weren't owned. We're all supposed to forget that prior to the global pandemic, in 2019 prices in Vancouver poo poo the bed and were down 15% and stagnating. Of course that foreign buyers put their pied a terres up for rent and this generated several thousand vacant apartments overnight is just the tip of the iceberg impact of this spec tax. The other side of the iceberg is the unreported massive changes to the development industry in terms of what sort of product they are now producing as a response to the tax. Prior to the spec tax developers in Vancouver were almost exclusively building condos, and companies like Westbank were bringing in starchitects like Kengo Kuma to create buildings that were marketed in Monocle magazine to a rich global audience amongst boat and watch ads. Of course the ads noted the sales offices in major asian cities. Now that's completely gone. Developers are now building purpose built rental (PBR), not high end condos. Westbank has even started converting their already approved condo projects into rental. This is the real significant change. Ironically for the supply side yimbys that were pushing for more PBR development while also trashing the foreign buyer/spec taxes, these taxes have probably been more effective than anything else in encouraging PBR to get built. Femtosecond fucked around with this message at 19:44 on Feb 22, 2021 |
# ? Feb 22, 2021 19:42 |
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https://www.cbc.ca/news/gopublic/wire-transfer-fraud-1.5917139 posted:Vivien Zheng says she will never forget the phone call that led to losing her family's entire life savings — $340,000. Not really debt related but holy poo poo how stupid can one person be? Part of me wants to think she's in on the scam and playing victim as a cover for something, it's hard to believe that these scammers had her brand new drivers license info unless she's extremely loose with her personal details.
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# ? Feb 22, 2021 21:02 |
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qhat posted:Not really debt related but holy poo poo how stupid can one person be? Part of me wants to think she's in on the scam and playing victim as a cover for something, it's hard to believe that these scammers had her brand new drivers license info unless she's extremely loose with her personal details. You only hear about the ones that fall for it. Even if they have a .1% success rate, that's a lot of cash in the end.
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# ? Feb 22, 2021 21:08 |
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Femtosecond posted:Yep it's been no big deal at all, has put thousands of units on the market and generated tens of millions of dollars, but continues to make the rich furious because it specifically targets the ultra wealthy and denies them of their pied a terres that they feel they deserve. This is why it alone appeared in the Lib policy book last election as a core NDP housing policy the Libs would roll back. Down 15% and stagnating is a fairly credulous interpretation of the lowest point on detached, in a low volume month, in a graph that is naturally pretty jaggy. SVT was announced with the Feb 20th 2018 budget, I'm not sure/checking about how much detail was available at the time. Detached wasn't the least bit stagnant except for the whole "topping out in 2016" thing, and the market was hot as heck well pre-pandemic. Attached stayed hot well past announcement, dipped a bit then came back with detached -- it's worth noting in both cases that interest rates were higher for all of 2018 and came back down in 2019. The "thousands" of units would be predominantly condos which moved what, 6% peak to trough?
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# ? Feb 22, 2021 21:24 |
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Sassafras posted:Down 15% and stagnating is a fairly credulous interpretation of the lowest point on detached, in a low volume month, in a graph that is naturally pretty jaggy. SVT was announced with the Feb 20th 2018 budget, I'm not sure/checking about how much detail was available at the time. Mortgage rates are generally in the vicinity of GOC 5Y + 1% but lag a bit when bond rates fall ... did anything else POSSIBLY happen that correlates to prices from 2015 to 2018? Sassafras fucked around with this message at 21:54 on Feb 22, 2021 |
# ? Feb 22, 2021 21:51 |
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Sassafras posted:
If you want to go around fishing for graphs that really show the measure of what was going on in the short one year of 2019 before the pandemic changed everything look for sales numbers. Sales were pulling back and volume was piling up. eg. Vancouver home sales fall nearly 40 per cent in January, as prices pull back Price declines lag sales, so if there was going to be any significant decrease in house prices, it was gonna be due to a sufficiently long period of depressed sales and accumulating volume. IMO we were starting to see that. Condos I was watching in Chinatown for example sat around all summer and the listings were being terminated instead of selling. The place I bought in autumn 2019 was on deep discount. And then of course the pandemic happened, people realized that working from home in their shoebox condo was gonna be painful, interest rates went to zero and the situation entirely changed. This is my whole point really. We can never really know what the mid and long term impact of the spec tax on prices could have been since the entire situation so radically changed so quickly. The shift in housing preferences and low interest rates easily dominated whatever impact the spec tax had. Anyone who points to current prices and sales and makes any comment on the spec tax is being insincere in not mentioning the pandemic. Sassafras posted:The "thousands" of units would be predominantly condos which moved what, 6% peak to trough? That prices shrugged off thousands of units appearing overnight goes to show how weak the supply side argument that simply adding more supply would lower prices is. YIMBYs treat every mid rise building that gets approved by council as some sort of major victory. If we measured the amount of units brought in by this policy as some sort of fairly typical 100 unit 5-6. story mid rise condo building, well this policy created 35 of those over night! Seems like a big victory for creating more supply to me but YIMBYs on twitter still need to disparage the spec tax to this day because they were on the wrong side of the argument and can't give up.
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# ? Feb 22, 2021 22:16 |
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https://twitter.com/blogTO/status/1363906425181855748 Brand new loving build and they couldn't be arsed to make hot water work.
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# ? Feb 23, 2021 04:09 |
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I love living without indoor plumbing. Brings me back to the 1800s.
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# ? Feb 23, 2021 04:24 |
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Less Fat Luke posted:https://twitter.com/blogTO/status/1363906425181855748 So are these scams or what. Like jesus I have never lived in an apartment that had nearly these issues and I've lived in student apts. in Sandy Hill in Ottawa. Laundry room never didn't look like a place you'd get murdered, complete with flickering flourescents, but I was never trapped in the elevator for an hour.
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# ? Feb 23, 2021 04:52 |
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Leaky condos Mk. 2 is gonna be great
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# ? Feb 23, 2021 05:44 |
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Less Fat Luke posted:https://twitter.com/blogTO/status/1363906425181855748 Hahaha holy gently caress. My sailboat that I lived in for 7 years and cost me 15k had loving hot water.
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# ? Feb 23, 2021 07:30 |
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https://twitter.com/TheHabistat/status/1359524333354274816?s=19 Adjusted for income, lol are Edmonton/Calgary ever cheap.
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# ? Feb 23, 2021 11:00 |
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The Little Death posted:So are these scams or what. Like jesus I have never lived in an apartment that had nearly these issues and I've lived in student apts. in Sandy Hill in Ottawa. Laundry room never didn't look like a place you'd get murdered, complete with flickering flourescents, but I was never trapped in the elevator for an hour. It sure feels like build quality is getting worse and worse. The condo building I rent in sued the builder twice in the six years it has been around for flooding issues and some weird chemical staining in the lobby. The elevator is constantly breaking, the carpets on my floor are already threadbare, there's a waterfall near my underground parking stall every spring, etc. It's a poo poo building.
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# ? Feb 23, 2021 14:25 |
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And people have the loving gall to ask me "why don't you just buy a condo? Start small, y know?"
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# ? Feb 23, 2021 17:05 |
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Leasing agreement is the best insurance contract you can sign in 2021
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# ? Feb 23, 2021 17:16 |
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We're going to wait and see if our landlord relists and if she does then we're going to rent elsewhere. It sucks eating a potential ~400/mo rent increase but there's just too much risk with a condo as it is, and now that they've doubled in price in like five years here the risk is magnified even more.
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# ? Feb 23, 2021 17:19 |
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I figured it was inevitable, but today it finally happened a developer approached my duplex neighbor about selling. I haven't talked to them yet so I have no idea what kind of offer they'd make. I'm amenable to the idea if the offer is good, but the problem is that the market is pretty bonkers right now so I'd be just stuck trying to find something in a crazy market. Figured this would happen since multiple lots near me have been developed into townhouse complexes or stratas.
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# ? Feb 24, 2021 00:50 |
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Figure out clandestinely if your neighbours are going to sell to that developer and then hold out until you’re the last man standing
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# ? Feb 24, 2021 00:55 |
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Just make sure you're not in a position to end up being a spite house
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# ? Feb 24, 2021 00:59 |
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And don't be like that family in Toronto who watched the other half of their duplex get demolished with no regard for things like walls. Edit: Wasn't sure I could find it! https://nationalpost.com/news/toronto/home-sweet-homewreck-this-is-the-worst-reno-story-you-will-ever-hear
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# ? Feb 24, 2021 01:02 |
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# ? Apr 19, 2024 22:35 |
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qhat posted:Figure out clandestinely if your neighbours are going to sell to that developer and then hold out until you’re the last man standing He seems ambivalent. I think he'd take it for a good price but he said otherwise he's happy to stay there forever. That's basically how I feel. If someone's gonna give me a shitload over assessment then it's hard not to take the money and run.
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# ? Feb 24, 2021 01:11 |