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mcmagic posted:I know this is for 2014 elections not for 2013 ones but I had to bring up this VA governor poll... I'm glad I can post this here, unlike on Facebook, where a number of my other friends in local politics here in NoVA have bought into T-Mac: McAuliffe is a lovely all-around candidate and, at least outside of his home where I'm sure he's a nice guy, a pretty terrible person. Let's ignore the fact that people only know him as a political hack and that even most of Northern VA won't go for someone who's entire background is in politics. People have been telling me for 2 years now that he has the winning issue of jobs "wrapped up." Ok? So what about his lovely electric car company? Have you or anyone else seen one of his cars? Without a popular product, the company might as well be Solyndra or (insert generic company no one cares about here) to most low-info voters. Oh, and where did he build it's factory? Republican-run Mississippi. There goes the "Dems like me are better for business!" argument. "Oh! But you see! He applied for a loan from VA but got rejected! Because the Republicans don't help business!" Wonderful, so we're running on the "Bob McD didn't give me enough corporate welfare" platform. Great. That'll look good. THAT'S LITERALLY THE ENTIRETY OF HIS "I'm a job creator!" ARGUMENT. Thank god the Clintons have been rehabilitated in the minds of most Americans, because that's literally all he has going for him: Bill as his salesman. "Oh! But T-Mac is a salesman himself! Let him get Cuccinelli on stage and he'll argue circles right around him!" First off, this assumes that people give a poo poo about political events and debates in low-info elections. Getting people to care enough to vote in these elections is enough of a task. Believe me, I've done it twice now. In 2009, the biggest problem was that the Obama voters 1) are low-info voters who don't follow non-federal races AT ALL and 2) Democrats don't ever play with a chip on their shoulder like the GOP does (whether in the majority or not!), and assume Obama's in His Heaven, All's Right with the World. "I'll think about voting, if I do, I always vote Democrat" is the most common response I got from people in 2009. Also, T-Mac's personality in these situations, at least to me, is TERRIBLE. He's always talking AT YOU VERY LOUDLY. Bill Clinton might have the same views, but you'll buy them because He Feels Your Pain. T-Mac comes off as any number of archetypes that everyone avoids: a carney, a car salesman, and...a politician. True story: a friend was at a DNC event with T-Mac. Terry literally introduced himself and shook his hand 5 TIMES in the course of the event. He can't even be bothered to pay attention to the people he's campaigning in front of. The last time I was at an event where he was present, I spoke to Mark Warner for 15 minutes about rural broadband in my home county. It's not a wealth thing. It's not a political beliefs thing. It's a personality thing, and he has the wrong one for going up against a stoic man who will always been unfazed and serious about every issue, even if he's insane. We got T-Mac as a candidate without a primary because he has been travelling the state handing out money to every Dem officeholder for the past 4 years. That's why Periello didn't run. That's why no Senator ran. He's calling in his favors, and no one wants to compete with his money. Brigadier Sockface posted:I'm certain he was talked into it. The way I read it he doesn't enjoy being a senator and wants to be Governor again, but was discouraged from running because his popularity keeps the seat safe. If McAuliffe wins he's definitely going to run in 2017. I'm not sure what you're getting at here, but Warner will run in 2014 (he's said as much) and didn't run in 2013 because he doesn't want to be seen as giving up on a job (he served 1 term as gov because that's all anyone can serve at one time in VA. He wants to stay in the Senate now to not be seen as a quitter if he runs for prez). If he's going anywhere, it's the presidential race in 2016, but I think he's outmatched there unless Hillary stays out and Cuomo gets bad press. De Nomolos fucked around with this message at 19:58 on Feb 24, 2013 |
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Feb 24, 2013 19:53
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Cheekio posted:http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/OTUS/ashley-judd-makes-steps-senate-bid/story?id=18570742 Kentucky has a decent bench. The Governor, LG, AG, Sec. of State, Auditor, and Treasurer are all Dems. The Sec. of State is a young female and would be drat near perfect in contrast to Turtley Turtleman. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alison_Lundergan_Grimes Whose idea is it to waste time on this crap? And I thought "Hollywood Liberal" was just some boogeyman term. Please don't tell me the DNC believes it's a positive. She may have a compelling bio, but she's an easy target. Gen. Ripper posted:And manly bad dudes have to rescue him. And then he eats a burger. Of which the bad dudes get NONE. Ha! Ha! Ha! Ha! De Nomolos fucked around with this message at 05:33 on Feb 26, 2013 |
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Feb 26, 2013 05:29
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Dr Christmas posted:Didn't someone post about a poll where, despite losing, she was losing less than one would expect considering she's done no campaigning? Maybe there is hope He will have a bajilion Rove Bux behind him and an Obama to stick to Judd like glue. They may elect state-level Dems, but I think anyone that's not got a reputation as being independent from Obama and "Sticking Up For Kentucky" ala every Dem that wins in West Virginia is toast. Judd is just too well-defined by stereotypes already.
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Feb 26, 2013 05:58
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:At some point, we have to turn those stereotypes around and own them. That's a phrase I hear in some form or another on liberal blogs, but saying that and getting constituencies that vote GOP out of cultural reasons to be compelled to come to your side because of irresistible progressive policies and hard work is something that I personally, being from a similar area, find a little naive. The national Dem coalition isn't built for rural people, sadly. It's built for the booming demographics of minority and recent immigrant groups along with urban liberals. And even if you have what you think is an irresistible message, the Democratic infrastructure in places like this is still built on local politicos who are more conservative. If they weren't there would be no party. Case in point: WV still has a Democratic Party because of this independence, but neighboring VA, with its center of power in Northern VA, can hardly find anyone to run for seats outside of NoVA, unless they are literally insane. The guy that ran for my home seat last year once wrote a column where he seemingly insinuated that the GOP was run by Dark Wizards. Long story short: Kentucky, due to its character, doesn't have the liberal infrastructure to elect someone from Hollywood.
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Feb 26, 2013 06:34
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menino posted:But check out this Slatepitch: Judd doing poorly with women because they think she's too hot. Maybe this is a thing that doesn't exist. Who cares. Let's just throw ideas at the wall indefinitely because we have 24 hours of news to cycle through. Grimes can surround herself with the right kind of women:  I mean, honestly it's smart for them to keep the best parts of their bench at home. We can get the Senate seats elsewhere. In the Senate, a Rand Paul type is a nuisance. Letting any Republican like him ever win Attorney General or Governor is a travesty. At least one guy on the ground says neither Grimes or Judd will run: http://wfpl.org/post/who-runs-against-mcconnell-2014-not-judd-or-grimes-stumbo-says I don't get why Beshear wouldn't be the likely choice. It's his final term, it would get his LG into place as the successor, and he's pretty popular. Maybe he just doesn't want to move. Old Kentucky Shark posted:This makes no sense if you are not from Kentucky, but being the de-facto head of the University of Kentucky Men's Basketball Boosters is roughly the equivalent of being touched by the left hand of God around here. If Lynn Swann can get crushed as badly in Pennsylvania as he did running for governor in 2006, being an iconic player from a team half the state would die for, then the sports thing may not hold up after all. De Nomolos fucked around with this message at 01:53 on Feb 27, 2013 |
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Feb 27, 2013 01:45
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BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:I'd honestly rather have Beshear jsut because he would have a much better chance of winning. The majority of Kentucky's electorate is actually Democratic. It's just that Democrats being Democrats and Republicans being Republicans, the rural Democrats from Eastern Kentucky and the Purchase, who mostly vote Democrat on Labor and anti-poverty issues are much more likely to vote across party lines if a candidate's too liberal than the Republicans are if a candidates too Conservative. (No such thing.) Running a Blue Dog is critical to winning because winning those rural strongholds with high turnout like Eastern Kentucky and the Purchase are critical for any Democrat to win state-wide office. Two things: 1. This is basically what all of Appalachia is like. West Virginia and SW Virginia break down this same way. Virginia just ends up falling GOP these days because Rick Boucher, the de facto SW Va Dem leader and former congressman, made the mistake of backing Cap and Trade and not coming up with an explanation for it since he thought he was so safe in office. He also didn't spend nearly 100k of his campaign funds in 2010 because it was his tradition to save the last 10% of his cash for the next election. Oops. Otherwise, he would have won due to labor and poverty issues. 2. This is why it's important to have local infrastructure that knows the populace beyond some statistics and assumptions that "people in rural states want god, guns, and gays." That ad was puffed up big time on Daily Kos and it sucked poo poo. Oops, you're assuming that rural people care more about weird religion assumptions and not, you know, integrity.
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Feb 28, 2013 23:37
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I'm catching poo poo for mentioning this on Facebook and local blogs, but looking at Virginia, we could be seeing a ticket that consists of a godawful Political Hack that paid people to stay out of the race the past 4 years, a career bureaucrat for Lt. Gov. (went from Harvard School of Gov to a policy job in DC to an appointed position in Richmond to the Obama campaign to an appointed position in DC), and an attorney for Attorney General (which is fine, but that's the bottom of the ticket). A lot of young politicos in the DC area like this LG candidate because he is young and hip and will totally show up at your Cap Hill Happy Hour Against the GOP, but I don't see how someone with his background is nearly as appealing as his opponent: a veteran-turned-freaking children's physician-turned State Senator who still practices. There's also a good chance now that Bill Bolling jumps in, and while everyone claims he'd only steal from Cuccinelli, I'm thinking there are a lot of moderate suburbanites who are put off by Mr. Glad Hand and would vote for anyone that's neither Cooch nor him. It helps that Bolling is being painstakingly centrist recently despite a conservative voting record while in the general assembly. De Nomolos fucked around with this message at 00:19 on Mar 12, 2013 |
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Mar 12, 2013 00:17
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I'm surprised more people aren't talking about Steve King. He's essentially got the nomination wrapped up. This is really happening, isn't it? http://www.steveking2014.com/ Oh dear...
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Mar 14, 2013 21:22
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Ammat The Ankh posted:What happened to Rove's SuperPAC that was going to run candidates against unelectable Tea Party crazies in the primary? Well, Latham, the challenger Rove et al wanted, isn't running. No other candidate has the base of support King does.
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Mar 14, 2013 21:38
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ufarn posted:Is there any data to suggest that the Democrats can successfully leverage wedge issues like immigration and gun control? Since Democratic gains will be dependent on their ability to make inroads in areas that will be guaranteed to be less receptive to gun control than the ones they currently hold, I'd be surprised if it became an issue at all. Gun control is really an issue for Democratic primaries and urban/suburban districts. I'm not sure how hard holding those areas will be this time around. Highspeeddub posted:This is from MIRS this morning. Actual voting record: http://www.ontheissues.org/MI/Bart_Stupak.htm "Bart Stupak is a Populist-Leaning Liberal." He's pretty in-line with guys like Bob Casey. Saying he's a GOP symp isn't an accurate statement. It's just that his one high-profile incident put him in line with the pro-life crowd. Very normal for the rural Midwest. De Nomolos fucked around with this message at 05:17 on Mar 20, 2013 |
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Mar 20, 2013 05:12
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mcmagic posted:It looks like the evil Rick Scott in florida is a dead man walking... I'd wager that the state party wants to find a way to dump him. On a similar note, another southern state that has an unpopular governor and which might see a rematch of 2010 could go blue. It's not one you're expecting. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Carolina_gubernatorial_election,_2014 I wonder how the media will deal with someone they propped up as a VP candidate and a part of the "new GOP" going down in flames? No one else outside of SC seems to realize how awful Haley is and how unpopular she is. Also, Sheheen benefits from being relatively young and likable. South Carolina is a state that will surprise some people in the future. It has the racial makeup of a place like Georgia (which people claim will be a swing state someday). The only real GOP challengers are the Speaker of the House (arguably a more powerful position in a weak executive state like SC, and he loves the pork), the Lt. Governor, and some no-names. I'm assuming any GOPer that isn't her would win the general, but Haley is leading "someone else" as of the last poll. If I had to rank the states most likely to flip from Red to Blue at the Gubernatorial level in 2014, it would be: 1. Florida 2. Maine (but probably I, not D) 3. Rhode Island (I to D) 4. Pennsylvania 5. South Carolina (I put it ahead of MI because, while labor may hate Snyder, EVERYONE hates Haley) 6. Michigan 7. New Mexico (but on party ID only, not because she's unpopular) 8. Nevada (ditto) 9. Ohio (might be higher, but Kasich has backed off recently) After that, I don't see anything that's really doable without some sort of scandal. There's Walker in WI, but he's survived enough to be given the benefit of the doubt, sadly. De Nomolos fucked around with this message at 22:19 on Mar 20, 2013 |
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Mar 20, 2013 22:11
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BrotherAdso posted:Virginia will be noisy, and I think Cuccinelli is crazy enough to sink himself even though the Dem opposition is piteously weak. Was only looking at 2014, but 2013 works. I'd slot VA behind FL only. I received an interesting bit of info from someone I know who knows these sorts of things from the inside today. One of the incumbent Democratic senators who was in a tough fight last year apparently told their boss, a big player in liberal politics, that the most productive and substantial help in last year's election came not from their traditional allies in labor, but from women's rights groups like Planned Parenthood. I'm not sure if this is good for women's rights and the power of PP, or just another signifier of labor's decline. The way it was presented, it seems to be the former. There are a lot of women, especially in swing states, who basically feel duped and violated by those elected in 2010. Assuming this issue stays in the public eye, you may see possible GOP pickups like New Hampshire, Montana, Iowa, and Michigan be more difficult than assumed, considering that the GOP nominee isn't likely to be a reputable moderate. I'm not sure how this applies to states like Arkansas or Louisiana, which are more solidly pro-life, even among many of the remaining Democrats. North Carolina is a total wild card, but I'm hoping the female candidate ends up being crazy Virginia Foxx (who said Matthew Shephard was a hoax) and not Renee Ellmers (who's almost a blank slate, save some anti-Muslim stuff) or Cherie Berry (who lots of morons vote for every election because of her stupid name). If I was going to rate the most likely Senate flips from Blue to Red, it would be: 1. West Virginia 2. South Dakota 3. Louisiana 4. Arkansas 5. North Carolina (unless one of the possible male candidates wins the primary, they're all repugnant and come from the leadership of the Gen. Assembly, which has a 22% approval rating) 6. Alaska (might end up being a bad GOP nominee again) After that, they all favor Dems at the time being, some because they just favor Dems in most recent years (barring Obama killing his dog on national TV or something), some because likely GOP candidates are awful. Ballz posted:Huge caveat: Crist has given absolutely zero indication he wants to be governor again. He wasn't particularly fond of it the first time, and if he did win he'd have to deal with an overwhelmingly Republican legislature that froths at the mouth hatred for him. Scott would have lost if not for the Tea Party wave b/c of health care reform. He did much worse than Generic R would have. A tiny number of people either needs to switch or stay home for him to lose. De Nomolos fucked around with this message at 05:45 on Mar 21, 2013 |
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Mar 21, 2013 05:41
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watt par posted:Berry keeps getting re-elected because her name's on every elevator in the state. Art Pope's two guys Tillis and Berger poll for poo poo, even among Republican primary voters, so who the hell knows what's going to happen with either of them. Another potential name is Lt. Gov. Dan Forest, who believes the Sears catalog is an instrument of the devil. It's hard to realize all of that after the gerrymander job that the GOP did in 2010. Honestly, I'm pretty bullish on 2016, when NC will likely still lag the nationwide unemployment (hurting McCrory) level and either Janet Cowell or Anthony Foxx will run. Of course, this means nothing so long as the GOP has a veto-proof majority, but maybe they'll get some seats back, dunno. For the record, I am a huge Janet Cowell fan going back to when she was on Raleigh City Council. She's a progressive that has real business cred (MBA from Wharton, but also worked for the Sierra Club and was in China during Tienanmen Square studying abroad and supporting the protest). NC is weird in that the GOP controls the state due to 2010 and its complications despite the fact that no one likes any of the actual members of the GOP, they just got sick of Bev and Mike Easley and Dalton never had a chance since he started late and the safe corporate money that used to go to the Dems when they were in control went to the favorite, McCrory, who was the favorite from the moment Bev won her first election and people got to see how clueless she could be. I honestly think Berry is the only person who can beat Hagan that's on the list currently. All anyone knows about her is the elevator crap (does any other state provide free advertising like that?) so she's as generic an R as they come otherwise. Foxx comes off as pretty dim and has said some stupid homophobic and prejudiced stuff. Ditto for Ellmers, who barely beat a man by a couple hundred votes in a GOP year that tried to strangle a kid to win her seat and kept it because of a ridiculous gerrymander. Berger and Tillis are transparent jerks that literally no one outside their office or Lake Norman likes. Forrest would get clobbered if people actually knew anything about him (the Sears stuff, the UN Conspiracy stuff, etc) and didn't just vote for him because his opponent was weak (all the rest of the Dems on Council of State won except for LG). De Nomolos fucked around with this message at 21:23 on Mar 21, 2013 |
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Mar 21, 2013 21:11
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watt par posted:A lot of the dysfunction is a generational fight between the older rural Dem wing from Eastern NC and the (relatively) younger urban wing from the Piedmont and Charlotte. Much of that Eastern wing is African American now. That's who's been keeping the few white reps from that part of the state in. quote:Randy Voller taking over the state party might fix things a little, at least get the money people who are more aligned with the Piedmont wing anyway to open their checkbooks again. He's from Pittsboro. Not exactly urban. I just know you have to be pretty stupid to run for anything with back taxes like him. quote:Bev really was no worse than Easley or Hunt (who was a scumbag through and through); mediocre, but we've had nothing but mediocrity since Bob Scott, so that's not a shock. This must be some personal thing, but Hunt is pretty well-loved still to this day. Compare what he did for education to his predecessors, save Terry Sanford. If there's a wing of the party that thinks he was the worst of the recent past governors, then that's news to me. I mean, I guess if you are judging NC by another state's standards or you don't like the fact that he was a teetotaler. quote:The gerrymandering sucks, but it's a temporary solution to a permanent problem. The Triangle and Charlotte are still growing fast and the rural areas are still losing people. The strongest area for Republicans in recent years has been the Charlotte suburbs. A lot of these new people from up North moved here because ARE TAXES and cheap land. It will depend on where these new people end up. If they're too concentrated in one area or another, they're easy to marginalize (see: packing of black voters currently). quote:McCrory's likely one and done; much like when he was mayor, his hands are tied and his legacy will be controlled by a deliberative body beyond his control. He will have all the money he needs and much of the money the Dems used to have will go to the GOP since they control the real levers of power. Plus, since it's easy to override a veto, even taking him out would do only a little, especially not budget-wise. quote:We'll see how good a shape the new and supposedly improved the NC Dems are next year. A flip is probably out of the question, but like you said the legislature is pretty universally loathed and they don't seem to have run out of steam yet as far as bad laws and petty childishness goes. It took the state democratic party nearly a century to become a hopelessly corrupt machine, and it's only taken team red a couple years. The old Democratic gerrymander kept them in power about 8 years longer than they should have stayed in power (during the Jim Black mess). This current one is even stronger. It may be awhile. The seats that would be the most likely to flip would be the suburban seats, and most of those weren't even competitive in 2012. Look at Wake County. Went for Obama and yet a majority of the House seats went GOP. Some of the seats lost in Eastern NC were closer as well, due to the concentration of black voters. They'll need to compete everywhere. As for the Dem caucus vs. what's in there now, I don't think it's much of an argument which was better if you care about the state university system, public education, and the environment.
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Mar 21, 2013 23:38
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watt par posted:The Jim Black gang came in with him, and they're still making GBS threads on everyone else (hello Gary Pearce). Never said he was the worst of the recent governors; Martin probably holds that honor for a number of his appointees. Just that he was mediocre, like Easley and Perdue. Hunt did a ton of stuff in his 16 years for education. To say he was mediocre like Bev is pretty inaccurate. There's a reason he was around 16 years. For one, pre-K was all him.
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Mar 22, 2013 05:21
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mooyashi posted:I really hope Ginny Foxx runs for Senate. I'm loving tired of her being my rep. With my luck her seat would be filled by her former primary challenger Vernon "loving" Robinson Robinson tried to run in the 8th district last cycle. Apparently he moved to Concord for this purpose. This after running in the 5th (Winston-Salem) and 13th (Greensboro to Raleigh) previously. So I guess he'll be moving again soon. Georgia has to be the (if not one of the top 3) divergent states in the union. On one side, OutKast and Ludacris. On the other end, Paul Broun. The worst part is that he represents Athens. Stipe for Senate? De Nomolos fucked around with this message at 03:31 on Mar 25, 2013 |
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Mar 25, 2013 03:28
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watt par posted:Sanford and Bostic are still fighting a runoff. Republican opinion will solidify behind the winner, and note Busch's lead is within MoE. Well, this assumes that they would even show up to vote for Sanford. Her best chance is that those who didn't vote Sanford don't like him at all and won't show up on general election day.
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Mar 26, 2013 22:39
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So Cuccinelli went up on air first in Virginia: https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=Y2Ms_W3pdKI Exactly the sort of thing he needed. He looks compassionate in a manner that jives well with his hard-right credentials (he cares for the vulnerable people...like the homeless and unborn babies!). There's literally nothing I can think of that McAuliffe can put out that looks like this and seems truthful. His career hasn't exactly been about taking care of the vulnerable. What the hell does he talk about in his debut background commercial? His car company fuckups? Raising money? Why the gently caress did everyone step aside and let such a horrible Democratic candidate run? Even if the party is a joke in VA right now, there's always at least Warner's money. I'm going to have a hard time backing Tom Periello on anything in the future if they lose this election. He at least would have forced Terry to come up with a narrative first and not sound like the bad guy when he has to come out of the gate taking shots at Cooch because he's got nothing good to say about his past. Instead, Tom stepped down because...Terry's given him a ton of money and browbeat him into staying out in hopes that he'd get support for a future run for something. This board is going to have to be where I vent about Terry this year, because on Facebook I have to act like a team player and if you say anything negative on blogs, they'll accuse you of weakening T-Mac and thus throwing the election to Cooch and thus you hate women. I actually hold a small position in DPVA gently caress this year.
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Apr 27, 2013 21:38
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watt par posted:Hi, I'm the church-ordained concubine trapped in a loveless, unforgiving marriage to a man popularly referred to as Cooch. My hubby's not just a criminally insane theocrat, he's a criminally insane theocrat who cares. In a low-information election? It worked in 2009. And this time the other candidate is an unlikable used car salesman that LOVES TO SHOUT HIS PLANS AT YOU rather than a socially awkward, cranky kid off the farm. Deeds was really neither likable or unlikable. You mostly just thought he was out of his league. Tee-Macker can't help but come off as as patronizing, plus he's the epitome of the worst parts of the Clinton wing of the party (he will tell you anything you want to hear). De Nomolos fucked around with this message at 15:54 on Apr 28, 2013 |
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Apr 28, 2013 15:52
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Joementum posted:Michael Steele might run for Governor in Maryland in 2014. It's sort of hard to see how this will work given his history of, well, saying things, most of which involve him criticizing the Republican party on MSNBC.  I don't know why anyone would be a Republican in MD. There's so much But seriously, what else is Steele going to do? The Republican parts of MD aren't likely to care for him in a primary, I'm sure. Eastern MD may as well be Virginia.
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Jun 4, 2013 01:19
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jeffersonlives posted:Pallone's problem, and this extends to his current House district too, is that he just has no functional political base at all in the grand scheme of the state. He's got money and he might be the union candidate by default, but none of the machines are going to go particularly hard for him because he's off in his own little coastal Monmouth fiefdom. Talked with a friend from Paramus that was a former SEIU organizer. Apparently Booker got some sympathy from SEIU last year when he supported one of their janitor and security guard campaigns, so it's likely they'll stay out or maybe even support him (though not til after a primary). The public employee and teacher's unions still hate him, and in a low turnout August primary, they may have some rub. But as mentioned, Pallone isn't a city guy and the public employee unions don't have a relationship with him (because they really haven't had to fight or support him since he's a federal candidate). Odds are it'll be closer than it should normally be due to the high percentage of union turnout in the primary, but probably not enough to beat Booker, since he's a celebrity. It's a pretty mixed picture right now. UltimoDragonQuest posted:I'm holding out hope for Al Leiter. I was about to say that a South Jersey candidate may not be smart, but then I realized I was thinking of Mark Leiter, who I for some reason only remember being a Phillie. De Nomolos fucked around with this message at 04:11 on Jun 5, 2013 |
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Jun 5, 2013 04:05
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Sadly, I think we're looking at an era where the Democratic Party will have greater pressure on it to promote media-friendly, cool politicians like Obama for quite some time. It's pretty much a given among Poly Sci dorks that the Obama victories were the result of a turnout machine driven more by personality than anything else. This is why you'll see Booker ushered to the front as the face of the party, and it's why, where I am in Virginia, you're going to see a better candidate on the issues and on life biography get beaten in the Lt. Gov. primary tomorrow by Obama's former Chief Technology Officer, who's a hip young Indian guy who talks exclusively about grants for computers in schools and cool new apps you can use for health care purposes in his stump speech. Never mind that he supported private financing and ownership of infrastructure, hasn't said whether he supports vouchers or "school reform," and donated $1,000 to Bobby Jindal (I guess we just assume because they are both of a similar skin color?). It's going to be tough to fight for more social democratic leaning issues as long as they have Booker and we have guys that look like Bernie Sanders.
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Jun 11, 2013 03:34
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mcmagic posted:It's not that. Chris Christie is one of the worst looking human beings on the planet and the plutocrats LOVE him. This is about those who serve the powerful while also giving the commoners just enough scraps so that low info voters are fooled into voting against their economic interest. He's got a gregarious personality, which is a different kind of charming. And really this is nothing new, not since the DLC after 1984, and it's not going to change as long as there's no public financing in place. deoju posted:This is for 2016, but still noteworthy... Russ Feingold hinted he might be run for office again. He'd be the perfect anti-Hillary, but it would probably be smarter for him to run for the Senate again. He'll probably just end up splitting the progressive vote between him and Warren or (more likely) someone like Marty O'Malley. I mean, a presidential campaign would better suit the issues he cares the most about, but he'd only be out to make a statement and would almost certainly just end up a voice in the wilderness after being dismissed, sort of like Eugene McCarthy after '68. De Nomolos fucked around with this message at 04:42 on Jun 11, 2013 |
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Jun 11, 2013 04:39
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The only way I could see a split is if left wing Dems/progressives in deep blue areas where the GOP is non-existent or beyond inept (most major cities, states like CA and NY) went full-on into a group like the Working Families Party. That would still only work on a local level, since WFP relies on labor boots-on-the-ground to have influence rather than ad buys.
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Jun 11, 2013 05:04
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Gen. Ripper posted:The WFP just nominates the Dem. candidate most of the time anyway. Well, yes, for now. In NYC, I would be surprised to see a WFP-only candidate eventually should Democrats continue gutting the schools.
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Jun 11, 2013 12:56
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Tatum Girlparts posted:And Schweitzer is basically a straight up Republican, and a pretty far right one at that. http://www.dailykos.com/story/2011/09/30/1021603/-Gov-Schweitzer-pushing-single-payer-in-Montana-ahead-of-Affordable-Care-Act Pretty strange thing for a Republican to do. IMO, the things that he is on the "right" on are not things that would be directly responsible for exacerbating problems. Keystone XL isn't going to expand or hinder energy habits if they find another way to export the oil (and there are a few others ways). Background checks won't stop people from obtaining guns illegally by stealing them or getting them in the black market. Now, Cory Booker's thinking on financial reform and school privatization, that's a pretty direct assault on public schools and a sane financial system. We know that vouchers and Michelle Rhee-style reform leads to private control and that less oversight means Wall Street is going to gently caress us over. I would still actively support Schweitzer over anyone else in the prospective field, but I actually align well with him personally, too. De Nomolos fucked around with this message at 22:30 on Jun 22, 2013 |
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Jun 22, 2013 22:25
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jeffersonlives posted:It will pour in similar amounts to beat McConnell, maybe higher. The Democrats do not have many opportunities for pickups because of the map, and this will nearly certainly be the best or second best. Yeah, but do you pour all that money into trying to take him down, or do you push it towards your incumbents in toss-up states? And before anyone tries to say that all those incumbents are worthless because of their conservative streaks, realize that any candidate in KY looking to beat McConnell is probably not going to be running anti-mountaintop removal ads and inviting Bloomberg to cut anti-gun ads. I'd prop up Kay Hagan, Mark Begich, and Mary Landreiu before I bet the farm on McConnell.
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Jul 1, 2013 23:11
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The Landstander posted:Also, the extremism of North Carolina's state legislature is probably helping to boost up Kay Hagan a bit - Sherrod Brown had a similar boost from Kasich's anti-union law and the subsequent backlash in 2011. Considering that the Speaker of the NC House is the likely nominee at this point, I have a feeling it'll be less of a tossup than originally though. However, with new Super Double Stuffd Voter Suppression Laws in NC, I have no clue what the electorate there will look like. Not to mention, the masterful GOP gerrymander will probably make sure that the GOP keeps a supermajority even if they lose the statewide popular vote like in 2012, so the GOP could get fewer votes and still stay "The people support the Common Sense McCrory Jobs Agenda to Stop Abortion and Ban Democrats!"
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Jul 24, 2013 02:18
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The Landstander posted:I'm somewhat skeptical that the actual change in vote that these kinds of laws can bring can be overstated* - but if there's any electorate where it seems like it would be effective, the North Carolina Democratic coalition of black people and young college students seems like the place where it could do the most damage. There's no way that Democrats can gain any sort of power at the state level without pulling some white voters back. The way the lines are drawn, even a Dem Governor is assured to face a General Assembly with a disproportionate number of white majority and elderly districts, due to the rural/urban divide and the general nature of gerrymandering. The only way to make some sort of dent would be to end the supermajority and elect a Democratic gov. in 2016. The former requires winning back more than the Obama Coalition, so they're going to kinda be forced to go beyond that black/college alliance anyway.
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Jul 24, 2013 02:44
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If someone has some data that shows NC is doomed/it's not bad in the kind of way, I'd be interested.
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I'm sure I'm not the first to think this, but isn't Davis running in TX bad from a national strategy and money standpoint? - big liberal donors see her as a big hot commodity and donate money to her, rather than to winnable states ranging from MI to AZ to FL to even SC (which will be closer than TX if 2010 is a baseline). - Women's groups (PP, EMILY'S List) spend resources propping up a spokesperson for them rather than electing sympathetic lawmakers in the aforementioned states - Hispanic groups, who could have a bigger effect in closer states like AZ or CO follow the party and try to take a risk on turning out more people in TX. Basically, TX is still a decade or more away according to conservative estimates (Sabato, for one) and while its a sexy choice, bigger immediate dividends can be won in bigger states like FL, PA (esp if a D is gov for the next redistricting), MI (ditto, see PA), and maybe OH?
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Sep 27, 2013 18:10
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jeffersonlives posted:I think it's actually the opposite because most of the #StandWithWendy type money really isn't coming out of the pocket of another candidate, it's going to be big donors that will open up to anyone that focuses on that issue and small donors who only donate to the occasional specific candidate. The idea of running a statewide single issue abortion candidate in Texas is probably pretty silly in terms of just raw votes, but maybe the incoming influx of money creates an infrastructure for 2018 and forward. I don't know if I buy this. To be sure pro-choice California and NY donors would see their money go much further in FL. Plus, with Scott able to self-fund, the GOP won't be spending much there anyway, and that's a good 50 mil that they can drop anywhere. So you can assume they will save $ in FL to drop everywhere else. I doubt they drop it in TX, knowing that even an average TX Republican will always have plenty of donors. The war of attrition works when you have a purple state or a bad candidate. Texas has neither right now.
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Sep 27, 2013 20:06
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hobbesmaster posted:There's a very real risk of him losing the primary. The Conway campaign could have won that election, but they torpedoed themselves by being needlessly mean about Paul's personal life. They were roughly tied when they decided that the way to win is to open up a huge can of worms about some stupid crap Paul did in college and run ads that looked like they were questioning his own religion. They could have easily just bludgeoned Paul on ANY policy position he'd taken up til that point, but instead they went personal first and looked stupid.
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Oct 20, 2013 22:58
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comes along bort posted:Speaking of pissing cash away here's hoping the GOP dumps another $10 million in trying to take out Mike McIntyre, who might as well just quit pussyfooting around and switch parties. A Blue Dog being criticized? Here I come to the rescue. He's better on trade than most Democrats and isn't likely to support crap like means testing of entitlements or chained CPI (I know he didn't support that) that "serious" Democrats support. There's a ton of distance between him and NC Republicans (whatever sort of Republicans they have in NY or NJ being irrelevant to the discussion of figures elected by NC delegations, I know he stands closer to them in those liberal/conservative ratings from National Journal or whatever). I'd rather have someone who actually supports Social Security than another neoliberal Dem who everyone fawns over because they totes love gay marriage. There are too many red-tinted seats needed for a majority to be picky and only demand progressives. You'd be surprised how many eastern NC Dems there are left who will only not vote Dem because of cultural (and not necessarily gays or abortion or whatever but just in the "he/she knows what its like to live in a rural area") stuff. Considering where the state stands politically right now, you'll need all the help you can get. Joementum posted:If I were in the habit of betting on races, I'd put money on Cotton beating Pryor in AR and Landrieu holding onto her seat, beating Cassidy in the general. Cotton is the type of candidate that makes Republicans of all stripes You'd have thought Cotton would have voted against ending the shutdown to shore up his conservative backing this far out. Instead he voted to end it and may risk creating a real primary. Still, if any incumbent is in trouble, it's Pryor, though his positioning is better than Blanche Lincoln and Mike Ross is expected to run a strong, well-funded gubernatorial campaign as well. Then again, Bebee won reelection in 2010 with Lincoln losing, but I don't think he had to do much at all for that. An active statewide campaign on both fronts helps the Ds. De Nomolos fucked around with this message at 03:21 on Oct 21, 2013 |
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Oct 21, 2013 03:14
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, it's going to be a Republican year, and he's hitting Pryor hard on recent votes he's had to make in line with Democrats. Landrieu is a special name in Louisiana, she brings home a lot of bacon for the local extraction industries (and has a very good chance of being the chair of the energy committee if the Democrats hold the Senate), and is (admittedly marginally) leading in polls against Cassidy, who is a credible challenger.
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Gygaxian posted:Don't forget that McIntyre is at least better than Jim Matheson. I wouldn't say that, but Utah is very different from NC. The farm interests and virtual non-existence of any manufacturing in Utah contributes to that. These people aren't Zell Miller.
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Oct 21, 2013 03:49
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I wonder how many Yankee Republicans are like my Grandmother in that they still vote GOP out of loyalty and only ever identified as a Republican in the first place because they were rural New Englanders and the Democrats were a party for ethnic and urban Catholics. She was an economist and math professor at UConn and is a solid Keynsian but is basically the Northern GOP equivalent of a southern Blue Dog.
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Oct 21, 2013 13:29
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I've had the misfortune of meeting McAuliffe. He's the textbook case of someone who talks AT you and not with you. Wait, actually make that SHOUTS at you. It's sad that humans are so easily swayed by bullshit marketing. That's basically all he speaks in. Like, he's literally a campaign commercial himself.
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Oct 23, 2013 02:38
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Troy Queef posted:I can't find it on Youtube, but back in '03 WWE decided to have an in-ring "debate" on the Iraq War. It was better when the war in Iraq was decided in the ring and for the WWF title: http://youtu.be/y5Rs6HpyHvY
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Oct 24, 2013 18:07
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Joementum posted:There's been an interesting development in the generic 2014 House race trendline since August. Now, correct me if I'm wrong, but won't it take a 10%+ victory in the nationwide popular vote to flip the house? If you look at the results from last time, there's still barely enough D-leaning seats left to make a majority. A lot of the seats won in 2006-08 as well as more than a dozen or more other old line D seats were already R leaning and are now gerrymandered even further out of reach. Remember, the last D majority had 3 seats in MS, 3 in AL, and 5 in TN. Now those states are 1, 1, and 2, respectively, and zero of those seats are anything but solid red. What I'm trying to say here is that the path to majority is still very narrow, especially compared to the last majority. The Ds may not even be close now and may not get there for a while barring more shutdowns or scandals.
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Oct 26, 2013 18:11
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comes along bort posted:Going by the past decade of trends the electorate next year should be fairly close to 2008's in demographic makeup, assuming no big wave one way or the other. I'm not saying this isn't out of the question, but I'd like to see the data suggesting that 6 years means that much to turn a 60-40 R district into something that much more favorable.
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Oct 26, 2013 20:09
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| # ¿ May 4, 2024 01:02 |
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Is this just some union ploy for certain cities? I mean, if these are races the Ds are just going to take anyway, why not. That's the only time a left challenger isn't potentially destructive.
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Oct 27, 2013 20:57
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