2014 US Midterms: Good News - The Polls Were Skewed!

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > 2014 US Midterms: Good News - The Polls Were Skewed!

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oldfan: Jul 22, 2007; "Mathewson pitched against Cincinnati yesterday. Another way of putting it is that Cincinnati lost a game of baseball."

AsInHowe posted:

Is it just me, or shouldn't 2014 be another big win for the Democrats?

In gubernatorial races, sure. In Senate races, it's just a brutal, brutal map for the Democrats. The only blue or purple state with a Republican senator is Maine, and there are a ton of red or purple states with Democratic senators. Their only opportunities on offense appear to be in inhospitable places like Kentucky and Georgia.

This was true to a lesser extent in 2012 as well, and the Democrats were widely predicted to lose the Senate early in that cycle too, but the Republicans handed over what should have been a gimme hold in Indiana and a gimme pickup in Missouri out of stupidity, and even beyond those lost a lot of close and/or winnable races.

# ¿ Feb 19, 2013 03:00

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# ¿ Apr 27, 2024 01:52

oldfan: Jul 22, 2007; "Mathewson pitched against Cincinnati yesterday. Another way of putting it is that Cincinnati lost a game of baseball."

Family Values posted:

There's a good article in the Atlantic about common election myths. Number 3 in particular is one that D&Ders often perpetuate.

Nope. "Independent" is still often used as shorthand when people really mean "swing voters" or "centrists," and the pop-science article you linked blurs that point in favor of making a technical point that while true is meaningless to horserace discussion.

eta: Driving further into the Fiorina paper Ball is quoting, the relevant part is actually a comparison of an ANES panel between independent leaners and weak partisans, i.e. the barely distinguishable borders of said groups. The conclusion that weak partisans are still slightly more partisan than leaners is bordering on a truism. Semi-interesting research, doesn't support the much broader claim Ball makes in the Atlantic article.

oldfan fucked around with this message at 19:06 on Mar 1, 2013

# ¿ Mar 1, 2013 18:56

oldfan: Jul 22, 2007; "Mathewson pitched against Cincinnati yesterday. Another way of putting it is that Cincinnati lost a game of baseball."

Family Values posted:

I'm not sure who you're disagreeing with here, me, the article, or the paper. Does D&D not often proclaim that there are no independents, only closeted partisans?

The article's third point and your endorsement of it. The Fiorina paper simply doesn't reach the sweeping conclusion that Ball's article does that "independents aren't partisan." The discussion is far more nuanced than that.

# ¿ Mar 1, 2013 19:53

oldfan: Jul 22, 2007; "Mathewson pitched against Cincinnati yesterday. Another way of putting it is that Cincinnati lost a game of baseball."

Joementum posted:

Oops! I didn't realize he was that old. With Levin out of the race, I imagine this'll become a lot more attractive for Republican candidates instead of one of them being forced to be the sacrificial lamb. Snyder won't be term limited out of office until 2018, so he'll have to decide if he wants to try for a second term as Governor or run in this race.

The Democratic nominee is very likely to be Gary Peters and the Republican bench blows; there's an argument Amash is actually their best candidate.

# ¿ Mar 7, 2013 23:58

oldfan: Jul 22, 2007; "Mathewson pitched against Cincinnati yesterday. Another way of putting it is that Cincinnati lost a game of baseball."

Franco Potente posted:

South Dakota Senator Tim Johnson will be retiring

Looks like we can chalk up another likely Republican gain in 2014.

This has been an open secret for about a year; Johnson tried to rig the timing of the announcement to help his son, who will likely be running for the Democratic nomination against Stephanie Herseth Sandlin. Herseth Sandlin has a better chance of winning than either Johnson IMO.

# ¿ Mar 25, 2013 20:46

oldfan: Jul 22, 2007; "Mathewson pitched against Cincinnati yesterday. Another way of putting it is that Cincinnati lost a game of baseball."

The other thing is that Mike Rounds, who really would be a favorite (although not unbeatable) against any Democrat, is about to get teabagged by Kristi Noem. Noem would, well, not be so much of a favorite.

# ¿ Mar 25, 2013 23:28

oldfan: Jul 22, 2007; "Mathewson pitched against Cincinnati yesterday. Another way of putting it is that Cincinnati lost a game of baseball."

The Landstander posted:

Is there a non-insane Georgia GOP candidate?

Tom Price is the resident establishment Republican flirting with the race but he doesn't seem to be overly interested.

# ¿ Mar 26, 2013 06:05

oldfan: Jul 22, 2007; "Mathewson pitched against Cincinnati yesterday. Another way of putting it is that Cincinnati lost a game of baseball."

Joementum posted:

I don't think the district number is ever mentioned in the show, but his hometown is Gaffney, which has the Peachoid (a real thing!) and is in South Carolina's 5th congressional district.

It's mentioned as the 5th on the show, and significant chunks of the character are based on John Spratt, who was in that district forever before Mick Mulvaney teabagged him.

# ¿ May 3, 2013 01:26

oldfan: Jul 22, 2007; "Mathewson pitched against Cincinnati yesterday. Another way of putting it is that Cincinnati lost a game of baseball."

Joementum posted:

Herseth Sandlin, who I'm told is actually not a character from an Isaac Asimov novel, is not running for Senate in South Dakota. Brendan Johnson is apparently also not running, which means the Democrats are going to have a very difficult time finding a candidate who can beat Governor Mike Rounds in that race. I'm moving this into the "likely Republican" column along with West Virginia.

The Democratic chances in South Dakota are still pretty much coextensive with Rounds getting beat in a primary by Kristi Noem, who is certainly making the type of moves one would expect to run here. SHS wasn't beating rounds either, in other words.

# ¿ May 13, 2013 19:45

oldfan: Jul 22, 2007; "Mathewson pitched against Cincinnati yesterday. Another way of putting it is that Cincinnati lost a game of baseball."

tadashi posted:

Maybe I missed something. Aren't the Democrats focusing on trying to win things in Georgia and Texas in 2014?

The top Democratic target is probably Mitch McConnell. Georgia is a possibility depending on who comes out of a very cloudy Republican primary mix. Can't imagine them making a serious run at Cornyn, though.

# ¿ May 13, 2013 22:07

oldfan: Jul 22, 2007; "Mathewson pitched against Cincinnati yesterday. Another way of putting it is that Cincinnati lost a game of baseball."

dilbertschalter posted:

McConnell will be fine. In 2008, an excellent year for the Democrats, he won by six points against a solid candidate.

Granted, that still probably makes him the top target.

Bruce Lunsford was an absolutely dreadful candidate that only won the nomination because he self-funded himself out of obscurity in two prior losing bids, and McConnell is significantly more toxic now than in 2014. Alison Lundergan Grimes could win that seat.

# ¿ May 13, 2013 23:13

oldfan: Jul 22, 2007; "Mathewson pitched against Cincinnati yesterday. Another way of putting it is that Cincinnati lost a game of baseball."

mcmagic posted:

PPP leans left but they are a great polling outfit in terms of track record and if you look at Q's 1, 2 and 3 thats pretty much the news that comes out of the poll, and they are asked before the other, more push-style questions.

That does make it less of a push poll, but remember that you have to answer the full questionnaire to be counted; throwing in questions that will get one side to disproportionately hang up is a great way to prime your sample.

# ¿ May 28, 2013 17:26

oldfan: Jul 22, 2007; "Mathewson pitched against Cincinnati yesterday. Another way of putting it is that Cincinnati lost a game of baseball."

mcmagic posted:

Is there a reason why this poll would have questions like that and previous polls that have made up PPP's good track record haven't? Do you not believe that McConnell is tied? I mean he's crazy unpopular...

They're a Democratic polling firm and they want to get Lundergan Grimes in the race since it was a poll specifically conducted for a Dem SuperPAC. They don't have to worry about a "track record" considering nobody is going to track 18 month old internal polls for accuracy.

# ¿ May 28, 2013 18:13

oldfan: Jul 22, 2007; "Mathewson pitched against Cincinnati yesterday. Another way of putting it is that Cincinnati lost a game of baseball."

mcmagic posted:

I think you're probably reading too much into the results of one poll. Whats clear is that McConnell can be beat.

Released internal polls by partisan firms are useless garbage no matter how much you want to believe in the topline or like the pollster's independent stuff.

# ¿ May 28, 2013 18:38

oldfan: Jul 22, 2007; "Mathewson pitched against Cincinnati yesterday. Another way of putting it is that Cincinnati lost a game of baseball."

Grimes can win the seat and it's probably the top Democratic target. It's still a poo poo poll. Not mutually exclusive.

# ¿ May 28, 2013 18:54

oldfan: Jul 22, 2007; "Mathewson pitched against Cincinnati yesterday. Another way of putting it is that Cincinnati lost a game of baseball."

Kentucky is one of those states where you can't really "unskew" based on party ID anyways because there are a shitload of registered "Democrats" that do not vote for Democrats in federal elections. It very much matters which Democrats you sample.

# ¿ May 28, 2013 21:12

oldfan: Jul 22, 2007; "Mathewson pitched against Cincinnati yesterday. Another way of putting it is that Cincinnati lost a game of baseball."

Don't underestimate the possibility that Christie appoints Booker himself. They're close. The political factors in play here are far from straight R/D stuff.

# ¿ Jun 3, 2013 17:44

oldfan: Jul 22, 2007; "Mathewson pitched against Cincinnati yesterday. Another way of putting it is that Cincinnati lost a game of baseball."

A Winner is Jew posted:

It would piss off a lot of tea party types, but it might let him pickup some of the african american & youth vote when he runs in 16. And lets face it, no matter how much a republican pisses off the tea party crowd at this point they will still vote for them than let the democrats keep the white house, doubly so if Hillary runs.

It's not 2016 stuff per se, Christie still has a 2013 reelect that could now be stacked with a Senate race. He needs to keep a certain level of Democratic institutional support or he can find himself in a tough race pretty quickly, even with his current polling numbers.

# ¿ Jun 3, 2013 17:51

oldfan: Jul 22, 2007; "Mathewson pitched against Cincinnati yesterday. Another way of putting it is that Cincinnati lost a game of baseball."

If Christie's smart he'll appoint Tom Kean Sr. as a caretaker. Nominally a Republican but Democrats will be fine with him, and doesn't get Christie into ownership of a bad vote or deeply partisan politics.

# ¿ Jun 3, 2013 18:13

oldfan: Jul 22, 2007; "Mathewson pitched against Cincinnati yesterday. Another way of putting it is that Cincinnati lost a game of baseball."

pangstrom posted:

I was thinking that's the easiest play. Select some glad-handling middle-roader everybody likes or at least nobody hates. You're taking a risk if it looks like you're "doing something" with the pick. (Never heard of Tom Keane Sr. before I looked him up just now, though)

Kean Sr. was the Republican Governor of New Jersey during the 80s and has been a popular figure in the state since then. He was the co-chair of the 9/11 Commission and is believed to have been a finalist for Secretary of Education in the first Obama cabinet after tacitly supporting Obama in 2008, so he's basically the one guy Christie can appoint that would cause no trouble at all with anyone.

The complicating factor here is that Tom Kean Jr. is the minority leader of the state senate (and run for the US Senate in 2006) and less of a postpartisan figure than his father, though still firmly within the moderate faction of the party.

# ¿ Jun 3, 2013 19:08

oldfan: Jul 22, 2007; "Mathewson pitched against Cincinnati yesterday. Another way of putting it is that Cincinnati lost a game of baseball."

euphronius posted:

It would be nice to have a black person appointed. The lack of black people in the Senate is kind of a disgrace.

Bruce Harris is a possibility I think, he's the mayor of Chatham and was one of Christie's nominees to the state Supreme Court that got blocked in the tug of war. And he's a gay black Republican, the optics of which are not bad.

# ¿ Jun 3, 2013 19:16

oldfan: Jul 22, 2007; "Mathewson pitched against Cincinnati yesterday. Another way of putting it is that Cincinnati lost a game of baseball."

mcmagic posted:

Guadagno is a complete lightweight and could never win the seat in November though this is the move Christie makes if he's playing to not offend the tea party for 2016.

If Christie wants to placate the "tea party" he'd appoint Steve Lonegan or someone like that. Not happening, he doesn't give a poo poo about that, and it's not his path to any nomination anyways.

The reason you'd appoint Guadagno is to kick her upstairs and replace her with someone above generic Republican status.

# ¿ Jun 3, 2013 22:14

oldfan: Jul 22, 2007; "Mathewson pitched against Cincinnati yesterday. Another way of putting it is that Cincinnati lost a game of baseball."

mcmagic posted:

Tea baggers in SC or NH don't know the difference between Lonegan and Guagadno. But they DO know the difference between D and R. Lonegan is so offensive that he will drive up democratic turnout in the fall and eat into Christie's easy reelect. Guadagno loses, quietly to Booker by 15 points and Christie still gets his 20+ point win. Also he has no path to the nomination that makes any logical sense.

This is the basic argument to appoint any generic Republican though, from Guadagno to Bill Palatucci to Joe Kyrillos to Lew Eisenberg. It really doesn't matter.

I think it would very much help Christie with the extreme conservative outlets to actually appoint a true believer, though. I don't know why he'd go seeking their help, but the real activist types actually do know the difference between a generic squishy establishment type and, well, not.

The more interesting question to me is whether Pallone or Holt takes a free shot at Booker in the special, assuming it's this year.

# ¿ Jun 3, 2013 22:31

oldfan: Jul 22, 2007; "Mathewson pitched against Cincinnati yesterday. Another way of putting it is that Cincinnati lost a game of baseball."

Brigadier Sockface posted:

Christe's list has leaked: Tom Kean Sr, Jon Bramnick, Tom Kean Jr, Kim Guadango, Joe Kyrillos (of those the last two are doubtful).

Christie also will not risk Booker turning out Dems in November so he has scheduled a special in October (primary in August).

Assuming that both that list and the reports that Christie will appoint a placeholder are both true, it's Tom Kean Sr. And that's probably the path of least resistance.

mcmagic posted:

I posted this in the wrong thread but it's pretty hilarious that he's willing to spend the money to have 2 elections within two months to pad his reelect numbers. FISCAL RESPONSIBILITY!

Given that a.) Christie is probably going to appoint a senator of the "wrong" party and that b.) he probably could have held the election off until late next year and given the Republicans a full year of an extra Senate seat, Christie should be commended for holding the special as soon as possible.

# ¿ Jun 4, 2013 17:52

oldfan: Jul 22, 2007; "Mathewson pitched against Cincinnati yesterday. Another way of putting it is that Cincinnati lost a game of baseball."

mcmagic posted:

He's doing what is best for himself. Everything I've read says that if he tried to push it to 2014 he would lose in court.

Christie obviously doesn't want it on the November ballot, although I suspect that's actually for legislative turnout and not his own reelect, but his best interests here would be to try hold the race to 2014. He's getting blasted right now by the national Republicans who care about this kind of thing. Enfranchising the electorate when it would be very easy and politically expedient not to is not a bad thing.

# ¿ Jun 4, 2013 18:12

oldfan: Jul 22, 2007; "Mathewson pitched against Cincinnati yesterday. Another way of putting it is that Cincinnati lost a game of baseball."

Special primary August 13th, special election October 16th.

Christie acknowledged that he is allowed to appoint a senator for the remainder of the term but refused to do it. Will of the people, etc. He also says that he's legally foreclosed from pairing the special election to the 2013 gubernatorial.

oldfan fucked around with this message at 18:50 on Jun 4, 2013

# ¿ Jun 4, 2013 18:47

oldfan: Jul 22, 2007; "Mathewson pitched against Cincinnati yesterday. Another way of putting it is that Cincinnati lost a game of baseball."

Joementum posted:

He also says that the placeholder pick will definitely be a Republican, but won't be announced today. I'd expect the announcement shortly following the funeral.

He didn't precisely say that, Costa's stretching the quote a bit. He said he has a "preference" for "one party" but wouldn't rule in or out anyone.

Christie is not going to make the appointee declare an intention not to run in the special, interestingly.

# ¿ Jun 4, 2013 18:56

oldfan: Jul 22, 2007; "Mathewson pitched against Cincinnati yesterday. Another way of putting it is that Cincinnati lost a game of baseball."

Highspeeddub posted:

It was just as head scratching as I hoped it would be. Lets spend lots of money on frivolous elections, let the appointee run (maybe?) and possibly appoint a Democrat?

This will either be a brilliant move, or a horrible one that kills his prospects for 2016.

If Christie has any shot in 2016 it's going to be as the postpartisan populist to begin with, he doubled down on that a long time ago.

# ¿ Jun 4, 2013 19:07

oldfan: Jul 22, 2007; "Mathewson pitched against Cincinnati yesterday. Another way of putting it is that Cincinnati lost a game of baseball."

Pallone's problem, and this extends to his current House district too, is that he just has no functional political base at all in the grand scheme of the state. He's got money and he might be the union candidate by default, but none of the machines are going to go particularly hard for him because he's off in his own little coastal Monmouth fiefdom.

# ¿ Jun 4, 2013 20:26

oldfan: Jul 22, 2007; "Mathewson pitched against Cincinnati yesterday. Another way of putting it is that Cincinnati lost a game of baseball."

Booker is making calls in preparation for a run. Rob Andrews is out. Rush Holt is considering.

Near complete radio silence on the Republican side, with rumblings that nobody wants to run and a lot of kvetching at Christie. I'd think someone from the House delegation would take a free shot, but the only one sitting on a seven figure warchest is Scott Garrett and he's probably smart enough to realize his chances statewide are not great.

# ¿ Jun 5, 2013 00:12

oldfan: Jul 22, 2007; "Mathewson pitched against Cincinnati yesterday. Another way of putting it is that Cincinnati lost a game of baseball."

Joementum posted:

Peter Hamby at CNN has a source saying that the Christie pick won't necessarily be a placeholder. Though my guess is that the short list has a few people on it right now who would like to run in an ideal situation, but may turn down the appointment now because the special election basically dooms them to a loss.

Right, the problem if you're Guadagno or Tom Kean Jr. or Jon Bramnick or Joe Kyrillos or Jen Beck is that you already have a pretty safe cushy job and you'd have to give it up with the knowledge that you're probably going to be in an unwinnable race against Cory Booker in two months.

If you're looking for a Republican that isn't currently an elected officeholder, is aligned with Christie, and might be a plausible appointee and statewide candidate, you're basically down to Bill Baroni, and even he would have to give up his PANY/NJ job.

# ¿ Jun 5, 2013 00:22

oldfan: Jul 22, 2007; "Mathewson pitched against Cincinnati yesterday. Another way of putting it is that Cincinnati lost a game of baseball."

Joementum posted:

Not only that, but you can just turn down the appointment and run in the Republican primary without giving up your current job. It's not like there's going to be a huge incumbent advantage in the party primary gained from getting a four month executive appointment from a guy who just pissed off the state party.

The state-level politicians would have a hard though not impossible time doing that since they'd be simultaneously running for reelection three weeks later.

# ¿ Jun 5, 2013 00:27

oldfan: Jul 22, 2007; "Mathewson pitched against Cincinnati yesterday. Another way of putting it is that Cincinnati lost a game of baseball."

Rush Holt is running in the NJ-Sen special.

# ¿ Jun 5, 2013 17:25

oldfan: Jul 22, 2007; "Mathewson pitched against Cincinnati yesterday. Another way of putting it is that Cincinnati lost a game of baseball."

Far-right Republican activist, Christie thorn, and former Bogota mayor Steve Lonegan is running for the NJ Senate Republican nomination per Robert Costa. Assuming Christie does not appoint someone who will run, Lonegan may end up being the frontrunner in a low turnout special.

Kim Jong Il posted:

There's overlap among his and Booker's bases of support, but I think it hurts Pallone more. He takes the super progressives who irrationally hate Booker, and like Pallone has a central Jersey base.

Yep. It's a free shot for Holt and a chance to build name rec for a future run, and hey, you never know, but that is going to split whatever small percentage of people don't like Booker.

# ¿ Jun 5, 2013 17:49

oldfan: Jul 22, 2007; "Mathewson pitched against Cincinnati yesterday. Another way of putting it is that Cincinnati lost a game of baseball."

mcmagic posted:

Why would he? Because you say so? Pallone and Holt would almost certainly be better on economic and foreign policy issues. (Better from a leftist perspective)

Holt might be. Pallone is the same type of generic neoliberal megalopolis Democrat that you're railing against.

# ¿ Jun 5, 2013 19:53

oldfan: Jul 22, 2007; "Mathewson pitched against Cincinnati yesterday. Another way of putting it is that Cincinnati lost a game of baseball."

mcmagic posted:

I'm not a huge Pallone fan but you can't name an issue where he's not equal to or to the left of Booker.

Pallone is very much a tough on crime/drug control warrior type, Booker is very much not. That's an easy one that you can't even quibble with.

# ¿ Jun 5, 2013 20:01

oldfan: Jul 22, 2007; "Mathewson pitched against Cincinnati yesterday. Another way of putting it is that Cincinnati lost a game of baseball."

Holt will also get an overwhelming majority of the "bold progressive" vote, but that's basically a couple points. I suspect Holt and Pallone are mainly running here to build name rec for the 2017 governor's race (also a free shot for House members) and/or the inevitable day when something actually sticks to Teflon Bob Menendez, with the side effect of possibly maybe winning if Booker doesn't run or implodes.

# ¿ Jun 5, 2013 21:53

oldfan: Jul 22, 2007; "Mathewson pitched against Cincinnati yesterday. Another way of putting it is that Cincinnati lost a game of baseball."

mcmagic posted:

Booker will win because plutocrats LOVE him. He pretty much has the same constituency as Christie right now.

That's really not why he will win at all; it's because he already has a statewide profile as a literal superhero while the other two are largely unknown even in their own districts. Booker has a frosty relationship with a lot of the "plutocrat" elements, although he's fairly in with the Adubato/Joe D old Essex machine these days.

# ¿ Jun 5, 2013 22:03

oldfan: Jul 22, 2007; "Mathewson pitched against Cincinnati yesterday. Another way of putting it is that Cincinnati lost a game of baseball."

Willa Rogers posted:

Booker has a frosty relationship with plutocrats? I guess that's why he attacked Obama (from Obama's right--fathom that) last year for trash-talking those upstanding hedge funds and why he's good friends with Michelle Rhee.

The plutocrats I'm talking about and the plutocrats you're talking about aren't the same people, hence why I qualified the statement to only cover some of the plutocrat elements. Booker does not have a great relationship with many of the state political bosses.

# ¿ Jun 6, 2013 00:18

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# ¿ Apr 27, 2024 01:52

oldfan: Jul 22, 2007; "Mathewson pitched against Cincinnati yesterday. Another way of putting it is that Cincinnati lost a game of baseball."

Joe Kyrillos is out for the special election but may be Christie's interim appointment. It would be tremendously amusing if he kept up his state senate reelection campaign as a United States senator.

# ¿ Jun 6, 2013 01:37

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > 2014 US Midterms: Good News - The Polls Were Skewed!

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