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For some reason our Founding Fathers (TM) decided to stagger elections so we'd have one every four years that was really important, but nobody cared about. This is a thread for discussing the one scheduled for 2014. I've listed information for the House and Senate, but feel free to use this thread to discuss gubernatorial elections, mayoral elections, whatever, unless those have their own threads. US House: Who's running? 435 seats up for grabs!  I'll fill this in later if any of the leadership or the media darlings faces a serious challenge.Current balance: 234 Republicans, 200 Democrats, 2 vacant seats (AL-1, MA-5) Cook Report Rankings Sabato Rankings Tea Party Caucus strength: 49 members Progressive Caucus: 68 members US Senate: Who's running? Current balance: 53 Democrats, 2 Independents who caucus with Democrats (VT, ME), and 45 Republicans. Comparison of model predictions of the 2014 US Senate election. Alabama: Jeff Sessions (R) (Incumbent). Currently unchallenged. Alaska: Mark Begich (D) (Incumbent). Dan Sullivan, former Attorney General (R). Arkansas: Mark Pryor (D) (Incumbent). Tom Cotton, Representative (R). Colorado: Mark Udall (D) (Incumbent). Cory Gardner, Representative (R). Delaware: Chris Coons (D) (Incumbent). No serious challengers. Georgia: (Open Seat). Michelle Nunn (D). David Perdue, Businessman (R). Hawaii: (Special Election). Brian Schatz (D) (Incumbent via Appointment), Campbell Cavasso, former State Representative (R). Idaho: Jim Risch (R) (Incumbent). Nels Mitchell, attorney (D). Illinois: Dick Durbin (D) (Incumbent). Jim Oberweis, State Senator (R). Iowa: (Open Seat). Bruce Braley, Representative (D). Joni Ernst, State Senator (R). Kansas: Pat Roberts (R) (Incumbent). Greg Orman, Businessman (I). Kentucky: Mitch McConnell (R) (Turtle), Alison Lundergan Grimes, Secretary of State (D). Louisiana: Mary Landrieu (D) (Incumbent). Bill Cassidy, Representative (R). Maine: Susan Collins (R) (Incumbent). Shenna Bellows, former Director of ACLU of Maine (D). Massachusetts: Ed Markey (D) (Incumbent). Brian Herr, Hopkinton Selectman (R). Michigan: (Open Seat). Gary Peters, Representative (D). Terri Land, former Sec of State (R). Minnesota: Al Franken (DFL) (Incumbent). Mike McFadden, financial executive (R). Mississippi: Thad Cochran (R) (Incumbent), Chris McDaniel, State Senator (R). Travis Childers, former Representative (D). Montana: (Open Seat). Amanda Curtis, State Representative (D). Steve Daines, Representative (R). Nebraska: (Open Seat). Ben Sasse, University President (R). David Domina, former candidate for Governor (D). New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaheen (D) (Incumbent). Scott Brown, Bqhatevwr (R). New Jersey: Cory Booker (D) (Incumbent). Jeff Bell, former candidate for Senate (R). New Mexico: Tom Udall (D) (Incumbent). Allen Weh, former New Mexico party Chairman (R). North Carolina: Kay Hagen (D) (Incumbent). Thom Tillis, State Represenatative (R). Oklahoma: Jim Inhofe (R) (Incumbent). Matt Silverstein, insurance salesman (D). Oklahoma: James Lankford, Representative (R), Constance Johnson, State Senator (D). Oregon: Jeff Merkley (D) (Incumbent). Monica Wehby, doctor (R). Rhode Island: Jack Reed (D) (Incumbent). Mark Zaccaria, member of the state GOP central committee (R). South Carolina: Lindsey Graham (R) (Incumbent). Brad Hutto, State Senator (D). South Carolina: (Special Election) Tim Scott (R) (Incumbent by Appointment). Joyce Dickerson, Richland County Councilwoman (D). South Dakota: (Open Seat). Mike Rounds, former Gov. (R)., Rick Weiland, Daschle staffer (D). Tennessee: Lamar Alexander (R) (Incumbent). Gordon Ball, attorney (D). Texas: John Cornyn (R) (Incumbent). David Alameel, former candidate for Congress (D). Virginia: Mark Warner (D) (Incumbent). Ed Gillespie, former Chairman of the RNC (R). West Virginia: (Open Seat). Shelley Moore Capito, Representative (R). Natalie Tennant, Secretary of State (D). Wyoming: Mike Enzi (R) (Incumbent). Charlie Hardy, former candidate for Congress (D). Joementum fucked around with this message at 00:05 on Sep 4, 2014 |
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Feb 19, 2013 00:16
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Safe Democrat (no race): 34 Solid Democrat: 8 (DE, IL, MA, MI, NJ, NM, OR, RI) Likely/Lean Democrat: 6 (CO, HI*, NH, LA, MN, MT) Toss Up: 6 (AK, AR, IA, NC, SD, VA) Likely/Lean Republican: 5 (GA, KY, ME, NE, WV) Solid Republican: 10 (AL, ID, KS, MS, OK, SC, SC, TN, TX, WY) Safe Republican (no race): 31 So, 48 D vs 46 R with six toss ups. * HI would normally be solid D, but their special election rules let multiple people from the same party run, which could split the vote. Joementum fucked around with this message at 01:19 on Feb 19, 2013 |
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Feb 19, 2013 00:32
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Badger of Basra posted:Why are Alaska and Arkansas counted as tossups? They have Democratic incumbents, but are very red states. KIM JONG TRILL posted:Not sure if you were trying to be facetious, but Mary Landrieu is a Democrat. Nah, that was a typo. Thanks. eta: the missing two were NC and VA, which I put in the toss-up section. Joementum fucked around with this message at 00:50 on Feb 19, 2013 |
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Feb 19, 2013 00:42
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prefect posted:Markey's not really an incumbent, is he? No, not for another couple months. Ammat The Ankh posted:You have five listed here. Bah! I was trying to do that while cooking dinner and did a bad job of both. Ammat The Ankh posted:Also I had heard Pelosi was going to retire either at the end of this term or the next, though I suppose that will end up in a peaceful transferal of power to Clyburn. Not if Steny Hoyer has anything to say about it. Joementum fucked around with this message at 01:20 on Feb 19, 2013 |
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Feb 19, 2013 01:18
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axeil posted:Joementum, is this also the place to talk about the VA and NJ state-level elections even though they're in 2013 and not 2014? There's already a thread for New Jersey and one for Massachusetts, so talk about those there. Feel free to gab about Virginia here unless someone bothers to start a thread for that.
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Feb 19, 2013 01:40
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HorseRenoir posted:I'd also put Iowa into the "lean D" column as well, because Steve King seems way too fringe to win the general election. King (who actually hasn't officially declared, but basically has) is just one of about a half dozen Republicans who'll be gunning for that spot and whichever of them who is not named Steve King and appears strongest is going to get a cash boost from Rove. Money matters in primaries. So yes, you're right that Steve King vs. a 2x4 with the word "Democrat" branded into it would be a "lean D" race, but I'm interested to see if King makes it out of the primaries. Obviously most of these strong/leans/toss-up rankings depends on who the eventual candidates actually are.
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Feb 19, 2013 02:54
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Cook puts IL-13 at D+1, but your district went for Romney by 0.3% in 2012. Looks like it got redrawn something fierce in 2010 since Obama won the old district by 11% in 2008. eta: The old 13th was the suburbs south of Chicago, the new 13th is an amalgamation of old districts that spans the center and central-West of the state, so there's no comparison to be had here. eta2: Nevermind, the Kos spreadsheet takes into effect the new boundaries when calculating the 2008 numbers, so the area that is now the 13th really did vote for Obama +11 in 2008 and Romney +0.3 in 2012. Joementum fucked around with this message at 04:07 on Feb 19, 2013 |
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Feb 19, 2013 03:56
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Here's what I see as the unknowns for 2014: 1. How well is Obamacare implemented? Is the Federal system actually, you know, funded? Over half the states will be relying on it and it's up to this Congress with this House of Representatives to appropriate sufficient funding. How well do the remaining states actually do in their implementation of the exchanges? The blame for their failures will roll uphill. And how unpopular will the mandate be once it's implemented. 2. How big of a factor was the Republican intransigence of the 112th Congress in the 2012 election? Was this a factor at all or was 2012 really about Obama? For that matter, will Obama campaign to help the House Democrats in 2014, as they are hoping? 3. How successful will the Republicans be in assuring that the Tea Party stays out of Senate races? They can afford Tea Partiers in House races, but they can't afford Steve King winning his primary if they have any chance to take the Senate back. Right now I'd say (1) slightly favors the Republicans, (2) is a complete unknown, and (3) slightly favors the Democrats.
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Feb 19, 2013 13:11
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On the Iowa Senate race, both Vilsack and his wife said they aren't running and the other two Iowa Democratic Reps have endorsed Braley, so he's almost certainly going to be the Democratic nominee. The Republicans, on the other hand....
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Feb 21, 2013 01:55
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Meanwhile in Montana.quote:We spoke to Schweitzer on Wednesday and he said, "I am not goofy enough to be in the House, and I'm not senile enough to be in the Senate." 
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Feb 21, 2013 02:05
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Kinky Freidman might run for Governor of Texas again in 2014.
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Feb 25, 2013 23:35
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fade5 posted:an improvement over Perry. This is the text that appears in the dictionary as an example for the entry "faint praise".
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Feb 26, 2013 00:34
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Judd will be playing the FLOTUS in a movie coming out next month where President Aaron Eckhart is kidnapped by terrorists inside the White House.
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Feb 26, 2013 04:41
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Tom Latham (R-IA) will not run for the open Senate seat, making Steve King the leading contender for the Republican nomination. 
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Feb 27, 2013 21:46
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menino posted:It was not a fait accompli that Kelly would win it. Yeah, it was. The Halvorson danger is that too many black candidates would crowd the ballot and Halvorson would win by geting a small plurality in a split field. Once the field cleared, it was over. Halvorson's ceiling was about 25%
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Feb 27, 2013 21:52
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Ashley Judd is now calling state-level Democrats in Kentucky to talk to them about politics. They're as confused as everyone else. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q47N6wGD5oU
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Feb 28, 2013 14:11
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Audience fakes a polite laugh for Judd's joke about wintering in Scotland. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q7FcziIB4uY
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Mar 2, 2013 01:15
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Chokes McGee posted:The only chance we would have at that point is—Iä!—Undead Adolph Rupp. I never realized how obvious it was before, but she probably takes the sub when she "winters" in Scotland, surfaces in Loch Ness and sells off all the flax scrip she picked up in Kentucky.
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Mar 2, 2013 19:32
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Good news for Rick Perry: he can probably keep being Governor of Texas for as long as he wants, even though he retired in January of 2012. Also, since I'm linking to the Tribune, I'll mention that I finished reading Jay Root's book on his time as an embedded reporter during the Perry Presidential campaign. It's titled Oops!, because what else could it possibly be called? It's a fun Boys on the Bus style read. No deep revelations, but "deep" is not a word that can really be used in connection with the Perry campaign.
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Mar 4, 2013 16:54
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It would if Republicans were getting most of the blame for the sequester, but now that it's in place, polls are showing that Americans blame both sides roughly equally.
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Mar 6, 2013 16:14
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Alter Ego posted:Don't know if it makes a difference that it was an online poll, though. Online polls are actually getting significantly better. In the 2012 election, IPSOS/Reuters did quite well and beat out all the robopollers.
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Mar 6, 2013 16:33
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This'll be a very interesting race, especially with Amash making noises on the Republican side. Conyers is the most prominent Democrat in the state (not counting Dingell who's way too old).
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Mar 7, 2013 23:25
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Oops! I didn't realize he was that old. With Levin out of the race, I imagine this'll become a lot more attractive for Republican candidates instead of one of them being forced to be the sacrificial lamb. Snyder won't be term limited out of office until 2018, so he'll have to decide if he wants to try for a second term as Governor or run in this race.
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Mar 7, 2013 23:35
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Good point! And I forgot how pathetic the Hoekstra attempt was this year. He lost by 20 points, which is more than can simply be accounted to Yellow Girl. Another interesting question is if a Levin retirement opens the door further to filibuster reform in 2015, especially given the events of the last month. Of course, that's easily a moot point for the Democrats in 2015.
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Mar 8, 2013 01:12
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Good news from Minnesota, Norm Coleman is not going to run for US Senate in 2014. We're still waiting to hear if Lizard People will reprise their 2008 campaign.
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Mar 8, 2013 12:32
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Apparently Scott Romney, Mitt's older brother, is considering a run for Senate in Michigan.
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Mar 8, 2013 23:02
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I think he's more of a fan of the lakes, the great lakes, but also all the little inland lakes that dot the parts of Michigan.
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Mar 9, 2013 20:43
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mcmagic posted:if she can take out Mitch McConnell She can't. The only hope is that McConnell gets primaried by a lunatic and Judd wins a close race, with the obvious downside there being that there's still a better chance that the lunatic would win (see: Paul, Rand for an example of this happening in Kentucky). Best case scenario for the Democrats is that she doesn't say anything too embarrassing and they can use her to fundraise for the national party. The problem here is that this vanity campaign blocks the chance for some party-building activity in the state.
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Mar 10, 2013 17:04
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The DSCC, citing a poll that shows they might actually beat McConnell without creating a circus, is now trying to dragoon Alison Grimes into running instead of Judd.
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Mar 10, 2013 20:19
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I really enjoyed the time I spent in Kentucky last summer. It's a beautiful place, though it was a bit spoiled by the Rand Paul signs that are still all over the place reminding me that, yes, I was surrounded by crazy people.
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Mar 11, 2013 00:09
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Adar posted:She's a local with the credentials to govern apart from celebrity. Her candidacy looks a lot like building the party from here, and she'll be more liberal than anyone else to win from KY (until she's voted out the following term but that's six whole years). Fair enough if she can actually use it to raise money for in-state party candidates, though I have a sneaking suspicion the whole thing will end up as a fleece job by the national party and she's not going to run again. You're definitely right about her being more liberal than other potential Democratic challengers in the state, not that it really matters since neither she nor they will be US Senators.
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Mar 11, 2013 00:19
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Things are getting mighty gay down in South Carolina where a director of GOPround, Bruce Carroll aka @GayPatriot, has resigned to explore a run against Lindsey Graham. Meanwhile the owner of Faith in the Sound News, Nancy Mace, which takes its name from a George Michael song (no, really), is also thinking about challenging Graham. This comes at an uncomfortable time for Mace, whose publication spent last week begging someone else to run. It seems that the favorite of FITSNews for a run against Graham is Tom Davis. Davis endorsed Ron Paul in 2008, which makes the FITSers all swoony, but now he won't say nice things about Rand on record and is saying he's not going to run for higher office in 2014. So Graham's challengers to date are GOProud and the Paulites.
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Mar 12, 2013 12:59
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MIRS, Michigan's Capitol News leader, is reporting that Scott Romney will not run for Senate. Quick, someone call Tagg and Ann! There's still time to establish residency.
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Mar 12, 2013 22:59
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Family Values posted:I worry that McConnell is taking a page from Claire McCaskill's playbook and is / will try to choose his opponent by running ads against Judd in the primary. Before you ascribe crafty strategies to the McConnell campaign it's important to remember that he hired Ron Paul's grandson-in-law as his campaign manager. The guy's previous campaign experience is running the Ron Paul 2008 and 2012 campaigns. Dr Christmas posted:What problem does the Tea Prty have with him? Since the Republicans don't have control of the Senate, there's no chance for divisions on how to try to gently caress over Democrats. They shouldn't have any problems, because McConnell has been the most effective partisan legislator of the last three years by far, but they're the Tea Party and they are stupid, so they want someone in there who'll spend all day on Fox News talking about getting rid of the Department of Energy.
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Mar 13, 2013 12:35
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I was being serious too about McConnell being the most effective legislator of the last several years, judged solely on how well they've advanced their party's goals. He's a minority leader, so he working from a disadvantage, but managed to block everything his party opposes, often whipping exactly the correct number of votes so that Scott Brown and Olympia Snowe were allowed to defect and stay safe. You can see this with the stimulus, which didn't get a single Republican vote, to Obamacare, to blocking the DREAM act, to ridiculous stuff like blocking the UN disabilities treaty with Bob Dole not-standing on the Senate floor and the Hagel filibuster. He was even able to completely cut the majority leader out of the fiscal cliff negotiations. If Republican voters want someone in the Senate who'll stand up for Republicans they really can't do any better than Mitch McConnell.
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Mar 13, 2013 15:05
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Ammat The Ankh posted:What happened to Rove's SuperPAC that was going to run candidates against unelectable Tea Party crazies in the primary? The other Republican Representative and the Governor have both declared they're not running for it, so unless Rove convinces the Lt. Gov, rustles up an ambitious DA, or finds a carpetbagger, King should have a rather easy primary.
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Mar 14, 2013 21:38
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The Warszawa posted:Is Braley looking at any sort of primary opposition, even nominal? A political scientist was quoted in a DMR blog saying that former Gov. Chet Culver would be a strong candidate. That's it though.
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Mar 15, 2013 09:34
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Everyone, including Feinstein, knew from day one that this is how it was going to go down. You can't get a gun control bill through the Senate with an AWB as part of it, even if every single Democrat is for it, which they aren't. That's saying nothing about the House. So instead you let the pro-control Democrats hold a protest vote on an amendment while the stuff that can get through both chambers, in this more background checks, passes. Of course Diane is shocked, shocked, that her effort isn't part of the final bill because that's the role she gets to play in this production.
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Mar 19, 2013 22:10
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mcmagic posted:Yup, and the cowardly den senators who killed it never have to actually vote against it. Except that (1) they do since there will be a vote on an AWB as an amendment to the Senate bill, and (2) it would not have passed anyway since you need 60 votes in the Senate for a cloture motion, and (3) Democrats like Joe Manchin are not cowardly in their opposition to stuff like an AWB, rather they oppose it ideologically.
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Mar 19, 2013 22:16
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mcmagic posted:If this really was an issue of we fear the NRA so much, McConnell will allow the vote to happen without filibustering. It's never going to pass the house anyway. You're assuming that McConnell would allow a clean vote on a gun control bill with the AWB in it and that an AWB-free gun control bill stands no chance in the House. Neither of those assumptions are true.
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Mar 19, 2013 23:02
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