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Fluffy Bunnies
Jan 10, 2009

Craptacular! posted:

No, but anyone who simply has had to go to a grocery store for the last four months knows that it's completely impractical to expect a six-foot bubble around your person to never be even briefly penetrated by someone else. It's been acknowledged by the experts that you'll occasionally pass within six feet of strangers, just don't stop and have conversations with them.

Even the Tokyo park's opening day wasn't quite that extreme. It's not that they don't expect bodies to never get within six feet, it's that they ask you stand six feet apart on markers in line and that Americans are really bad at complying with suggestions that aren't actually rules back up by expulsion.

There is an enormous difference between "I have to go to the grocery store to eat" vs "I'm going to an international tourist spot to ride some rides and whoops I just bumped into your kid's stroller, haha, sure hope I'm not asymptomatic!"

E: My criticism is that they know it's unsafe, it's entirely not essential, and this is going to increase spread a hell of a lot more than going to the grocery store every 2 weeks will.

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Pththya-lyi
Nov 8, 2009

THUNDERDOME LOSER 2020

remigious posted:

It seems like there’s not even enough people there to make being open worthwhile. I know y’all love your Disney, but anyone that goes to the parks this year is insane :(
I haven't been to Disney World since I was a child and I've wanted to go back for years and years and years.

You'd have to park a dump truck full of hundred dollar bills in my driveway to get me to go there before The Vaccine is available.

couldcareless
Feb 8, 2009

Spheal used Swagger!
Has there been any contact tracing or reporting for how spread at Universal has been since reopening? Feel like there's been enough time for an adequate bake in of potential side effects from that

Bottom Liner
Feb 15, 2006


a specific vein of lasagna
15,000 new cases today is more than enough reporting to know how it’s going. As I said a month ago, it doesn’t matter how safe and cautious the parks are if our state and government is doing nothing.

As for contact tracing, it’s going poorly everywhere simply because people will not answer their phones to unknown numbers anymore (because of robocalls), which is one of the main methods of tracing this.

Fartington Butts
Jan 21, 2007


https://twitter.com/DisneylandAP/status/1282433618858504192

Fuckin' go buy Starbucks somewhere else ya dummies.

couldcareless
Feb 8, 2009

Spheal used Swagger!

Bottom Liner posted:

15,000 new cases today is more than enough reporting to know how it’s going. As I said a month ago, it doesn’t matter how safe and cautious the parks are if our state and government is doing nothing.

As for contact tracing, it’s going poorly everywhere simply because people will not answer their phones to unknown numbers anymore (because of robocalls), which is one of the main methods of tracing this.

Given that Florida is a large state, no, that doesn't say much. It's very easy for there to be large spread in regional areas (i.e. Miami) that have nothing to do with Orlando parks.

I get it, parks are risky and unnecessary, and I'm not disagreeing with anyone with that, I simply asked a question and didn't get an answer

Old Man Pants
Nov 22, 2010

Strippers are people too!

couldcareless posted:

That's a tough decision to make when the unemployment boost is ending with no renewal in sight and a ton of workers that are about to be hosed. I know we can argue "well they have the money to pay those employees indefinitely" but I'd be shocked if they had that sort of liquidity for 6 months.

If they end the unemployment boost, millions of people will be homeless by election time. Eviction moratoriums expire at the end of the month too. It would be political suicide and anarchy. It's not like this created new jobs for the closed businesses employees to go to.

WithoutTheFezOn
Aug 28, 2005
Oh no

couldcareless posted:

Given that Florida is a large state, no, that doesn't say much. It's very easy for there to be large spread in regional areas (i.e. Miami) that have nothing to do with Orlando parks.

I get it, parks are risky and unnecessary, and I'm not disagreeing with anyone with that, I simply asked a question and didn't get an answer
All large Florida cities are seeing significant increases.

There is no contact tracing that I know of.

You can see stats by county from this page by using the tabs at the bottom

https://fdoh.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/8d0de33f260d444c852a615dc7837c86

couldcareless
Feb 8, 2009

Spheal used Swagger!

WithoutTheFezOn posted:

All large Florida cities are seeing significant increases.

There is no contact tracing that I know of.

You can see stats by county from this page by using the tabs at the bottom

https://fdoh.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/8d0de33f260d444c852a615dc7837c86

Thanks. Shame they don't do any tracing or at least inquiries on where they might have contracted. That data has proven invaluable in learning more about spread.
Everyone feel free to go back about their hyperbole and how walking past someone while masked is going to make you sick.

Dren
Jan 5, 2001

Pillbug

couldcareless posted:

Thanks. Shame they don't do any tracing or at least inquiries on where they might have contracted. That data has proven invaluable in learning more about spread.
Everyone feel free to go back about their hyperbole and how walking past someone while masked is going to make you sick.

Last I saw, the science on aerosol transmission risk in different situations is inconclusive. Outdoors is not well studied in particular. The best we can say is “we just don’t know”.

People who don’t want to walk within 6 feet of a stranger are making a reasonable decision. People who choose to do so are just hoping for the best.

What I understand about contact tracing is that it would totally overwhelmed by the amount of cases in Florida. It cannot be done unless the amount of new cases is much smaller scale.

couldcareless
Feb 8, 2009

Spheal used Swagger!
You must be reading different things than me regarding transmission. A lot of what I've read indicates outdoors aerial transmission is significantly less common and with a mask is reduced even further.
There's even a lot of common sense trends right now that support this (southern US, where it's unbearably hot outside right now, has seen cases increase as outdoor activity decreases due to heat and people seek out things to do in AC)

Bottom Liner
Feb 15, 2006


a specific vein of lasagna

couldcareless posted:

I get it, parks are risky and unnecessary, and I'm not disagreeing with anyone with that

couldcareless posted:

Everyone feel free to go back about their hyperbole and how walking past someone while masked is going to make you sick.


c'mon



couldcareless posted:

You must be reading different things than me regarding transmission. A lot of what I've read indicates outdoors aerial transmission is significantly less common and with a mask is reduced even further.
There's even a lot of common sense trends right now that support this (southern US, where it's unbearably hot outside right now, has seen cases increase as outdoor activity decreases due to heat and people seek out things to do in AC)

C'MON the Southern US is the worst region right now for spread and hospitalizations with Texas, Louisiana, Alabama, Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina
all being over 1k cases/100k over the past 7 days because people are going about business as usual including outdoors activities with parks being packed. Just today in Clermont I passed a baseball tournament, a Church event, and a motorcycle club gathering that each had well over 100 people grouped up outdoors. The park I go bike riding at is always a full parking lot on weekends since this started too. The heat and sunlight effect has been played up since the start despite places like Miami being an initial hotzone when they were already in the mid 90s before shut downs.

Bottom Liner fucked around with this message at 02:11 on Jul 13, 2020

Fluffy Bunnies
Jan 10, 2009

couldcareless posted:

You must be reading different things than me regarding transmission. A lot of what I've read indicates outdoors aerial transmission is significantly less common and with a mask is reduced even further.

They didn't get rid of all indoor shows nor did they get rid of indoor rides, which are circulating all that wonderful AC all day long. Have you seen those spread models?

Every streamer out there is catching people whipping off masks and failing miserably at social distancing. How many pictures do you need of people on top of each other to know this is a bad idea?

Also, even if it's reduced that doesn't mean it's impossible or even unlikely to a point where it's acceptable to have large gatherings of people. Plus, those mask rest areas? Where you can just hang out with all your new best friends from all over the world without a mask? Yeah. I'm sure those are totally all right.

quote:

There's even a lot of common sense trends right now that support this (southern US, where it's unbearably hot outside right now, has seen cases increase as outdoor activity decreases due to heat and people seek out things to do in AC)

The southern US loves being outside in this garbage heat. There are more outdoor activities than ever do to on the Savannah River right now. I grew up in this awful, awful area of the country and, for instance, it was "too cold" at 55F for kids to be outside to play on the playground per our teachers but they threw us outside when it was 95F and thought we'd love it.

What I'm saying is, the heat cooks these people and they're crazy for it.

Dren
Jan 5, 2001

Pillbug

couldcareless posted:

You must be reading different things than me regarding transmission. A lot of what I've read indicates outdoors aerial transmission is significantly less common and with a mask is reduced even further.
There's even a lot of common sense trends right now that support this (southern US, where it's unbearably hot outside right now, has seen cases increase as outdoor activity decreases due to heat and people seek out things to do in AC)

The stuff I’ve read is preliminary in saying what you’re saying. And yes, it does make sense. But it hasn’t been shown and the risk hasn’t been quantified. Personally, I don’t feel good about being within six feet of people even outside. Obviously this doesn’t apply to Disney World but outdoor activities bother me because people seem to feel “oh I’m taking a walk outdoors I don’t need a mask because I won’t be around people.” But then, much like at WDW, they do end up close by other people through happenstance and what then?

couldcareless
Feb 8, 2009

Spheal used Swagger!

I don't think you really address anything I say here, but that's fine.
I'm not disagreeing with you or Fluffy, I'm just hesitant to take part in the echo chamber that says things like walking outdoors next to someone masked is likely to get you sick. When we veer that far, it just ends up being the flipped version of the folks saying masks don't work because their doctor friend told them. Making incorrect statements like that just invite anyone who already dissents to roll their eyes and dismiss everything. I have frequently had my ears and eyes glued to any studies, talk, whatever of the virus because my wife is a drat hair stylist who has to work masked with masked people in her chair for an hour or more on average. I get it, it's terrifying.

And hey, we don't all love the heat. I spent 2 hours this morning disassembling my old aluminum awning on our patio and I wanted to die. gently caress this poo poo.

Bottom Liner
Feb 15, 2006


a specific vein of lasagna
But dismissing it as zero threat is more harmful. There's zero harm in being more careful right now. Just as a bit of data, a person biking can spread aerosol particles 60 ft behind them. Even with a mask some of that can get out and be in the airstream.

quote:

His team concluded that cyclists and runners have to stay much farther than 6 feet from a runner or rider in front of them to avoid inhaling droplets or having them land on their bodies. He calculated safe distances for each sport: That 65 feet is needed when riding a bike at 18 miles per hour, 33 feet while running at a 6:44 minutes-per-mile pace, or 16 feet while walking at a normal pace.

couldcareless
Feb 8, 2009

Spheal used Swagger!

Bottom Liner posted:

But dismissing it as zero threat is more harmful. There's zero harm in being more careful right now. Just as a bit of data, a person biking can spread aerosol particles 60 ft behind them. Even with a mask some of that can get out and be in the airstream.

If you wanna get technical, nothing is really a zero threat, and while simulations in a vacuum seem to indicate spread would be a real problem, studies seem to indicate otherwise
That last link is a Vox article that even points out that the findings from the Dutch study regarding spread from cyclists and runners "had no input from virologists or epidemiologists nor was it peer reviewed".

Bottom Liner
Feb 15, 2006


a specific vein of lasagna

couldcareless posted:

If you wanna get technical, nothing is really a zero threat, and while simulations in a vacuum seem to indicate spread would be a real problem, studies seem to indicate otherwise
That last link is a Vox article that even points out that the findings from the Dutch study regarding spread from cyclists and runners "had no input from virologists or epidemiologists nor was it peer reviewed".

quote:

“The risks of virus transmissibility in the air outdoors is likely quite low in those contexts, although this risk hasn’t been definitively measured,” Rasmussen said. “Outside, things like sunlight, wind, rain, ambient temperature, and humidity can affect virus infectivity and transmissibility, so while we can’t say there’s zero risk, it’s likely low unless you are engaging in activities as part of a large crowd

quote:

Research by MIT’s Lydia Bourouiba has shown that coughs and sneezes can release turbulent clouds of particles in droplet and aerosol form alike. The particles from a cough can travel as far as 16 feet and particles from a sneeze can travel as far as 26 feet.

quote:

The odds that a primary case transmitted COVID-19 in a closed environment was 18.7 times greater compared to an open-air environment


hmm it's almost like Disney parks present all of these environments and portraying the latter as a non-issue to downplay the overall threat is dangerous.

and that Vox article is a whirlwind of bullshit conjecture:

quote:

The engineers simply concluded that any exposure was too much. But that’s not the case; the truth is more reassuring.
to

quote:

One thing we’d all love to know about Covid-19 is what constitutes the infectious dose — that is, how many live virus particles you need to inhale at once before they kickstart an infection. Unfortunately, scientists just don’t have the answer yet.


quote:

If you wanna get technical, nothing is really a zero threat,

is a slippery slope when you're position is on the less safety side of this discussion and the same argument the right are using to justify opening schools and everything else.


we do know how aersosal and droplet dynamics work. we don't know how effective all the various possible mask materials are. we don't know how much of the virus it takes to infect or how much sunlight and heat actually do anything to kill it quickly. there's no reason to push the "it's safe" narrative with anything when we have a 50% rise in cases week on week and know so little still.


and just as a nice little ending note, an AK cast member that worked over a week has tested positive. first hand confirmation.

Bottom Liner fucked around with this message at 03:08 on Jul 13, 2020

couldcareless
Feb 8, 2009

Spheal used Swagger!

Bottom Liner posted:

hmm it's almost like Disney parks present all of these environments and portraying the latter as a non-issue to downplay the overall threat is dangerous.

and that Vox article is a whirlwind of bullshit conjecture:

to



is a slippery slope when you're position is on the less safety side of this discussion and the same argument the right are using to justify opening schools and everything else.


we do know how aersosal and droplet dynamics work. we don't know how effective all the various possible mask materials are. we don't know how much of the virus it takes to infect or how much sunlight and heat actually do anything to kill it quickly. there's no reason to push the "it's safe" narrative with anything when we have a 50% rise in cases week on week and know so little still.

Hey, that is fine man, I never said I wanted the parks open and I certainly won't be visiting until there's a vaccine. I'm not going to delve down the argument rabbit hole with you. I just thought it would be best if we avoided unfounded statements on either side of the argument, but I really like the company of the people in this thread more than I feel the need to push the envelope on this one, so I'll just drop it.

BlueBayou
Jan 16, 2008
Before she mends must sicken worse
I'm just mad the MK version of Big Thunder doesn't have dynamite goat

Roth
Jul 9, 2016

BlueBayou posted:

I'm just mad the MK version of Big Thunder doesn't have dynamite goat

Close the park forever.

Dren
Jan 5, 2001

Pillbug
Guys i read a bunch of those studies too and the takeaway is “we don’t know” for so many common situations.

Which means it comes down to how much of a risk are you willing to take given what you think you understand.

Empress Brosephine
Mar 31, 2012

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS
Either go to the parks or not not a big deal also join our discord channel for non COvid fear mongering


https://discord.gg/tHAWpNg

Bottom Liner
Feb 15, 2006


a specific vein of lasagna

couldcareless posted:

I really like the company of the people in this thread more than I feel the need to push the envelope on this one, so I'll just drop it.

we cool

alg
Mar 14, 2007

A wolf was no less a wolf because a whim of chance caused him to run with the watch-dogs.

Empress Brosephine posted:

Either go to the parks or not not a big deal also join our discord channel for non COvid fear mongering


https://discord.gg/tHAWpNg

Is the discord where goons go to vlog about their trips to the park during a pandemic

chitoryu12
Apr 24, 2014

I went by the Springs today. Jock's has removed almost all of their tables to put a giant gap between the bar and the back wall and all doors are open for ventilation. I yelled at a woman who tried to leave Wine Bar George unmasked so she went back in and got hers from her friend.

Note that I am 6'2 and about 230 pounds and you may experience different results trying to shame people into putting masks on.

Omne
Jul 12, 2003

Orangedude Forever

Universal has been open for awhile now. Have any cases been tied (publicly confirmed) yet? They would seem to have the same risks as WDW but seem to be getting a pass about being open

Fame Douglas
Nov 20, 2013

by Fluffdaddy
With the explosion in cases, would seem hard to tie anything to anything - even if there were contact tracing.

Jose Valasquez
Apr 8, 2005

Empress Brosephine posted:

Either go to the parks or not not a big deal also join our discord channel for non COvid fear mongering


https://discord.gg/tHAWpNg

Definitely just fear mongering

Atricks
Nov 5, 2003
Hurricane Man
Hollywood Studios and Epcot are doing cast previews today. Of all the parks I think DHS has the highest chance for more crowds, because of Rise and Runaway Railway being so new -- Runaway railway was officially open about a week before the March closure. (I.e. if people risk going, this may be their choice)

https://twitter.com/Attractions/status/1282676996447797250

https://twitter.com/Attractions/status/1282683325736538114

They are enforcing only one ride a day though, for Rise. (scanning cards)

Atricks fucked around with this message at 15:29 on Jul 13, 2020

mattfl
Aug 27, 2004

https://www.wmfe.org/hong-kong-disneyland-resort-will-shut-down-amidst-reopening-after-country-wide-outbreak/159104

So yeah

Fluffy Bunnies
Jan 10, 2009

Jose Valasquez posted:

Definitely just fear mongering


brose is screwin' around


Atricks posted:

Hollywood Studios and Epcot are doing cast previews today. Of all the parks I think DHS has the highest chance for more crowds, because of Rise and Runaway Railway being so new -- Runaway railway was officially open about a week before the March closure. (I.e. if people risk going, this may be their choice)

https://twitter.com/Attractions/status/1282676996447797250

https://twitter.com/Attractions/status/1282683325736538114

They are enforcing only one ride a day though, for Rise. (scanning cards)

While I know folks are interested in MMRR, it doesn't seem like I hear as many people talking about it as I do Rise?

Zero One
Dec 30, 2004

HAIL TO THE VICTORS!
HKDL closing because of 50 cases.

Meanwhile in FL:

https://twitter.com/wesh/status/1282692534687469576?s=21

Atricks
Nov 5, 2003
Hurricane Man

Zero One posted:

HKDL closing because of 50 cases.

Meanwhile in FL:

https://twitter.com/wesh/status/1282692534687469576?s=21

The numbers from China are more than a little suspect based on the nature of the CCP, plus there is a lot more going on in Hong Kong that would make this effective cover for the other "Security Law" crap going down there. (It's gatherings of 4 or more, not just Disneyland) The government forced them there.

It doesn't excuse Florida, but I wouldn't read much into what goes on in China.

Atricks fucked around with this message at 16:37 on Jul 13, 2020

Zero One
Dec 30, 2004

HAIL TO THE VICTORS!
Come get your Disney water

https://twitter.com/iamcg83/status/1282372617446608897?s=21

Hazo
Dec 30, 2004

SCIENCE




I mean... I can certainly see there being a market for this. People love the unique smell of the brominated "Disney Water," and with Splash eventually getting remodeled there's a nostalgia factor. We have a jar of Splash Mountain water because it's my wife's favorite ride.

Tim Whatley
Mar 28, 2010

On Jim Hill's podcast he said ideally Splash is currently staying through 2021 and then gave basically the entire layout of the new ride lol.

couldcareless
Feb 8, 2009

Spheal used Swagger!
Everyone knows that once it changes theme, it will switch to filthy liberal SJW water that won't have the same "evaporated fumes that should probably be considered a controlled substance" smell as the original.

alg
Mar 14, 2007

A wolf was no less a wolf because a whim of chance caused him to run with the watch-dogs.

Atricks posted:

The numbers from China are more than a little suspect based on the nature of the CCP, plus there is a lot more going on in Hong Kong that would make this effective cover for the other "Security Law" crap going down there. (It's gatherings of 4 or more, not just Disneyland) The government forced them there.

It doesn't excuse Florida, but I wouldn't read much into what goes on in China.

Florida/the US numbers are pretty frickin' suspect too

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Dugong
Mar 18, 2013

I don't know what to do,
I'm going to lose my mind

Atricks posted:

Hollywood Studios and Epcot are doing cast previews today. Of all the parks I think DHS has the highest chance for more crowds, because of Rise and Runaway Railway being so new -- Runaway railway was officially open about a week before the March closure. (I.e. if people risk going, this may be their choice)

https://twitter.com/Attractions/status/1282676996447797250

https://twitter.com/Attractions/status/1282683325736538114

They are enforcing only one ride a day though, for Rise. (scanning cards)

Distancing isn’t going to work on Rise without further cutting down on the original pretty measly throughput. That hallway queue shot is just ridiculous.

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