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Rei_ posted:At the same time, if there's somebody who always votes Ally, we can assume they might be out and about doing poo poo every vote. Zero would have no reason not to constantly Ally, because they're under no threat of losing. As long as they don't go below 0 BP that is.
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# ? Nov 18, 2013 07:42 |
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# ? Apr 17, 2024 10:34 |
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Phi's telling of the prisoner's dilemma really wasn't the best way to illustrate the need to betray, I thought. The benefits of cooperation in that scenario were just so much better than than the potential downfalls of someone betraying. And a successful betrayal would hardly get you any increase in benefit compared to what would've happened if you'd been trusting. Of course, human psychology is not on your side here, since people are even more motivated to avoid harm than they are to gain a benefit. It's avoidance of that big scary sentence that's the main motivator, rather than trying to gain the one year for themselves. But looking at those two columns side by side, if Apple and Banana (who presumably had some bit of trust for each other beforehand, to become partners in crime) can't at least clam up for the sake of saying "gently caress the pigs", if not for the sake of their partner, then they're such loving idiots. Oh, but there's no choice! You just have to pick betray! This kind of cooperative game theory stuff always gets me irrationally angry.
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# ? Nov 18, 2013 09:26 |
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CottonWolf posted:From Sigma's perspective Alice has a 1 in 8 chance of being his kidnapper. Betrayal is the only logical choice. Given the involvement of the morphogenetic field in 999 and probably in this, considering that Sigma seemed surprised by the AB room's corpselessness, I think this is one of the few games in which we can use information from other paths and have it make perfect sense 'from Sigma's perspective'. From our perspective, Alice was prepared to ally with both the Clover-K pair (which contained someone she knew) and the Dio-Quark pair (which, as far as we know, didn't), so I'll be very surprised if she betrays us. Let's transmit that assurance to Sigma and pick Ally. Poor Alice has been betrayed in every other timeline, after all.
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# ? Nov 18, 2013 09:36 |
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quote:"So if you plan to pick "ally", then you don't really even need to go into the AB Room." Somebody remind me, is this true? Or do you get penalized for simply not entering the AB room? Because if not, as long as each solo stays out of the AB room by choice or force, everyone gains points no matter what decision the pair makes. That's got to come into play at some point. If all the solos stay out and all the pairs agree to pick betray, there's still the danger of a pair trying to get 9 first, but there's at least a safeguard against losing points (you can only gain 2 or gain 3). Everyone could make it out in two rounds in the best case scenario. But this seems so simple I think I must be forgetting something.
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# ? Nov 18, 2013 09:48 |
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might be wrong posted:Somebody remind me, is this true? Or do you get penalized for simply not entering the AB room? As long as one person from each trio votes, they'll be fine. If none of them vote, they'll all get penalized - just a way of preventing guaranteed Ally alliances - you have to either trust your opponents or they have to be dead. And that system doesn't work at all. If, like in the Magenta path, Sigma's a pair and Luna's a solo twice, and they get matched up together, Sigma escapes and Luna dies. The 'best' scenario would be if just the solos vote for three rounds and they all pick Ally. Then everyone gets out in three rounds.
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# ? Nov 18, 2013 09:53 |
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ApplesandOranges posted:The 'best' scenario would be if just the solos vote for three rounds and they all pick Ally. Then everyone gets out in three rounds. The Problem is the first round. They don't learn the rules until they are locked in the AB room and have to make a choice there.
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# ? Nov 18, 2013 10:01 |
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MonsterEnvy posted:The Problem is the first round. They don't learn the rules until they are locked in the AB room and have to make a choice there. Yeah, putting people into the rooms without telling them about the penalty makes it much more likely for them to pick betray in that first round. And all you need is one person at 1 BP for it to be impossible to get everyone to agree on picking ally every round, so at that point it becomes a sort of "every man for himself" scenario where getting everyone through the door is a pipedream. And then you need to be willing to kill the others and use them as stepping stones to get closer to your escape, before they do the same to you. And of course, Zero III's claim that one of the 9 is Zero Sr. also did a pretty good job of planting seeds of distrust throughout the group. Even if you got everyone to agree to ally, you can't trust anyone who might be the person who kidnapped you. Especially if you're one betrayal away from death.
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# ? Nov 18, 2013 10:08 |
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Bifauxnen posted:Phi's telling of the prisoner's dilemma really wasn't the best way to illustrate the need to betray, I thought. The benefits of cooperation in that scenario were just so much better than than the potential downfalls of someone betraying. And a successful betrayal would hardly get you any increase in benefit compared to what would've happened if you'd been trusting. The classic telling of the Prisoner's Dilemma is really just there to put Game Theory terms into plain language using an example of a choice (stay silent/confess) and payoffs (prison sentences, or, lack thereof) that people understand. Like Phi said, the Prisoner's Dilemma is really just a formal explanation of why people might not cooperate even if it's in everyone'e best interests; even when you take away all the human and contextual elements and reduce the entire situation down to one payoff matrix and think everything through mathematically, you'll find that the rational choice is to betray even though the best choice is to ally. The actual numbers involved don't really matter very much as long as they stay within particular constraints: The betrayal payoff must be greater than the mutual alliance payoff, which must be greater than the mutual betrayal payoff, which must be greater than the sucker payoff. In the Iterated version, there is an additional requirement; the sum of the betrayal and sucker payoffs cannot be more than twice the mutual alliance payoff - if this condition doesn't hold, then alternating between betraying and getting betrayed becomes more profitable than continuously allying. This is the source of a lot of confusion when talking about "the Prisoner's Dilemma" in the context of this game; the classic telling often contains a disproportionately scary penalty for the sucker payoff; Phi's examples are a valid Prisoner's Dilemma, but wouldn't make a valid Iterated Prisoner's Dilemma. The Itereated Prisoner's Dilemma is notable for being the only possible game at this level of simplicity (ie, a 2x2 payoff matrix) in which the Nash Equilibrium is not also the optimal strategy. This is why the human elements (read: trust) make it interesting; normally we don't like them because they're kinda chaotic and interfere with our nice tidy equilibria, but in the Iterated Prisoner's Dilemma, we want to avoid equilibria. And as you say, sure, if you start picking apart the example you can start saying that the two prisoners should have a code of silence or something, but the example is just for illustration. Purely by the numbers, as Phi observes, you're always individually better off betraying than allying, even though the all-round best outcome is to not do that.
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# ? Nov 18, 2013 10:46 |
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might be wrong posted:Somebody remind me, is this true? Or do you get penalized for simply not entering the AB room? You're missing that anyone who doesn't vote automaticly PICKS ally (as long as both teams in a trio don't stay out, then they all get killed assuming that's the "penalty" in all cases) but they are still subject to the result of the vote. If I stay out of the chamber and the other team picks betray, I still lose points.
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# ? Nov 18, 2013 11:08 |
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Bruceski posted:You're missing that anyone who doesn't vote automaticly PICKS ally (as long as both teams in a trio don't stay out, then they all get killed assuming that's the "penalty" in all cases) but they are still subject to the result of the vote. If I stay out of the chamber and the other team picks betray, I still lose points. Huh, I completely misinterpreted that chart. I got it into my head when I checked it that if the solo picks ally, everyone gets three points if YOU pick ally, and everyone gets two if you pick betray. That did seem a bit off. I'll just leave the speculation to everyone else, I have a hell of a time keeping the details straight when not physically playing the game.
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# ? Nov 18, 2013 12:43 |
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I haven't voted because I've been watched SGF's run and know how it goes in this round. But I started thinking Phi is only right about the dilemma if the two prisoners don't know each other and don't know how each will vote. I've also been thinking about how dangerous Dio really is. I was trying to think what I would do if I was Tenmyouji and was playing against one of my children (or in his case grandchild). Would I ally, knowing they'd ally with mum so that we both got 2 points, or want them to betray, so that when I vote ally, they get 3 points and get out quicker. The 9 door only opens once, so unless we can guarantee to go out together (which I'm not sure is possible because there are 7 other people playing the game too), I want to get my child through that door, whatever the cost. Self preservation only goes so far. And if I'm going to die anyway, I might go to great lengths to make sure that my child isn't betrayed. However if you stick Joe Bloggs who I've never met in the other room, it becomes more of an internal dilemma for me, but maybe not someone else. I don't really care what Joe Bloggs does, because I can't control that, but I can control what I do. Can the part of me that likes to see the best in people, let me vote betray? Or do I try and play tactically, get maximum points and try to save my own skin? In this case, my children are at home, and I want to get back to them, so I'd probably agree with Phi and vote betray as it is more logical, but I would feel incredibly guilty about it. I don't know enough about Dio to know about his conscience, but as far as we know, he doesn't have any ties to anybody else. Therefore we can rely on him to try and get as many points as he can. Therefore he's more predictable than Tenmyouji. TL:DR - Tenmyouji is more dangerous than Dio. And I'm over thinking a video game too much.
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# ? Nov 18, 2013 14:13 |
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DWK posted:I want to get back to them, so I'd probably agree with Phi and vote betray as it is more logical, but I would feel incredibly guilty about it. I don't know enough about Dio to know about his conscience, but as far as we know, he doesn't have any ties to anybody else. If you mean ties to anyone else in-nonary-game, I don't think we know one way or the other yet, but if you mean ties to the outside world he did say he has a daughter in an earlier path. Granted, it could be a lie since he's an rear end, but it does seem like he has some twisted code of personal ethics that does actually exist. He kept his word about the medicine - he only smashed it if we were the one who double-crossed him by going against our own word
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# ? Nov 18, 2013 14:27 |
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Sentient Data posted:If you mean ties to anyone else in-nonary-game, I don't think we know one way or the other yet, but if you mean ties to the outside world he did say he has a daughter in an earlier path. Granted, it could be a lie since he's an rear end, but it does seem like he has some twisted code of personal ethics that does actually exist. He kept his word about the medicine - he only smashed it if we were the one who double-crossed him by going against our own word Counterpoint: He stole the only cure that could prevent a child's death, and then demanded we let ourselves get killed in return for it, and when we didn't let ourselves get blackmailed smashed it out of pure spite despite it giving him absolutely no personal gain. Personal code or not, he's simply a son of a bitch and there's absolutely nothing that could possibly defend or justify his actions. On my personal list of goals to try to achieve by voting, his death takes a very prominent place.
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# ? Nov 18, 2013 20:38 |
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Sentient Data posted:If you mean ties to anyone else in-nonary-game, I don't think we know one way or the other yet, but if you mean ties to the outside world he did say he has a daughter in an earlier path. Granted, it could be a lie since he's an rear end, but it does seem like he has some twisted code of personal ethics that does actually exist. He kept his word about the medicine - he only smashed it if we were the one who double-crossed him by going against our own word If he does and he's not spouting BS, I think that gives him more of a motive to vote betray and makes him more predictable. Like Aumanor says, he could have let Quark have the medication straight away, but he used it as leverage instead. As a parent, that makes me suspect Dio isn't.
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# ? Nov 18, 2013 20:45 |
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Looks like the Goonmind is going towards Ally again. I just thought that, for once, we should Betray. If only because Alice needs to put on a goddamn shirt before we Ally. We can't just encourage her to walk around dressed like that!
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# ? Nov 19, 2013 10:44 |
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I just kind of want to see Phi's reaction when we press ally instead of betray. Also I think Phi's theory is flawed in this case because Prisoner's Dilemma only really works when, as someone already said, you don't know whether you can trust the other person or not. We have talked with Alice and seen how she acted, had this been the first route for us (as I assume that the developers wanted it to be, considering the room we were just in was the demo room) betraying would have been a more viable option, but even then Alice still seems like a nice enough person to trust. And hey, we have points, so we might as well be a bit risky
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# ? Nov 19, 2013 14:09 |
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Whether or not we can trust anyone else, it's guaranteed that we can't make progress if no one will trust us. We want the other party to ally with us regardless of what we choose. Opening with a betray will make it less likely for our future opponents to hit ally.
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# ? Nov 19, 2013 17:39 |
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Right, calling for Ally.
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# ? Nov 19, 2013 20:48 |
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Guys, how are you not just betraying everyone? They're all clearly liars and horrible people. Let's just be in it to win it!
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# ? Nov 19, 2013 21:36 |
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Phi just told Sigma that hitting zero BP kills, is he supposed to turn around and knowingly almost murder Alice now? Sigma's a decent human being okay? <> Though the game does seem to be pushing really hard for that betray option this route... Allying non-stop really is a simple solution that's in everyone's best interests, too bad we're never going to see any of these characters take advantage of the ample amounts of time they have to sit down and rationally discuss that as a strategy, too busy splitting up constantly and murdering each other.
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# ? Nov 19, 2013 21:48 |
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I'll never be convinced that betraying in the first round is ever a good idea. For the rest of the game, you're gonna be that dick who betrayed someone for no reason. We've already seen people refuse to enter doors with people who have betrayed, so why would we willingly throw everyone's trust away right from the start?
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# ? Nov 19, 2013 21:53 |
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Nobody can die in the first round, so Sigma doesn't have to feel guilty... yet. Maybe we'll get the chance to kill people later.
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# ? Nov 19, 2013 21:53 |
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Zoe posted:Allying non-stop really is a simple solution that's in everyone's best interests, too bad we're never going to see any of these characters take advantage of the ample amounts of time they have to sit down and rationally discuss that as a strategy, too busy splitting up constantly and murdering each other. That's the beauty of the whole set up, though, don't you see? They don't know what the AB Game entails until they play it the first time. They don't find out the penalty for dropping to 0 BP or less until after the first set of results is announced. Then the colors and pair assignments are shuffled around and they have X amount of time to do whatever until the next set of Chromatic Doors open. But why would they discuss optimal strategy for playing the AB game and saving everyone when playing the AB game is what Zero wants them to do? No, clearly we should use this time to investigate and see if Zero overlooked another way out, even though we were explicitly told that the number 9 door is the only way out! Screw doing what Zero wants us to do! You can't control us, man! Oh yeah, and speaking of Zero, the rabbit already told us that one of the nine players is secretly Zero, so clearly that means we can't trust you enough to reveal anything useful to you! After all, you might secretly be Zero! And that's not even factoring possible bad blood resulting from betrayals in the first round of the AB Game.
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# ? Nov 19, 2013 22:16 |
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I like how we're getting different facets of game theory explained to us in the different paths. Putting a hard "you die" or "you escape, everyone else dies" boundary on the ambidex game makes it more than a pure long-term or short-term maximization exercise.
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# ? Nov 20, 2013 21:56 |
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Fedule posted:Right, calling for Ally. I love how the game is basically like, "choose betray or the world will literally end", and we still choose ally.
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# ? Nov 20, 2013 23:39 |
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The Devil Tesla posted:I love how the game is basically like, "choose betray or the world will literally end", and we still choose ally. I'm inclined to believe that our partner could hold a gun to our head and tell us to choose Betray and the thread would still vote Ally.
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# ? Nov 20, 2013 23:47 |
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57% of 326 voters chose to Ally with Alice. Exeunt. 999 OST: [Imaginary] Listen in: [English/Japanese] Did you hear anything I said? Yeah, I was, and yeah, I did. (sic) Then...? Well, I... I want to believe in Alice. That's not really a rational decision. I know. We're about to announce the results! Let's go. We'll find out if you made the right choice. All right. They run to the monitor... ...and go through this again.
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# ? Nov 21, 2013 00:14 |
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Well here we are again on the verge of death!
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# ? Nov 21, 2013 00:16 |
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Huh. Dio allied this time.
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# ? Nov 21, 2013 00:19 |
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Hogama posted:Huh. Dio allied this time. That is easily the most bizarre part of this.
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# ? Nov 21, 2013 00:21 |
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Well... that just happened. Huh. Shows us how much our careful predictions based on detailed analysis of previous paths are worth, I guess. I think I'm gonna officially cease expecting ANYTHING at this point. Just buckle up my seatbelts, and take in the experience . On a little bit more constructive note, why the hell did Alice suddenly betray? Why the hell did Tenmyouji ally? Seems like finding that dead old woman actually had a huge impact on everyone's choices. Aumanor fucked around with this message at 00:28 on Nov 21, 2013 |
# ? Nov 21, 2013 00:25 |
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Dio allied? Alice betrayed?
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# ? Nov 21, 2013 00:28 |
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We're off to a fantastic start! Again!
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# ? Nov 21, 2013 00:30 |
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Hey now, maybe Quark overpowered Dio or tricked him, just like he totally did that one time in that other timeline. I wonder if we had picked Betray, would Alice have voted Ally?
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# ? Nov 21, 2013 00:31 |
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Well, at least K, Clover and Luna are consistent. Dio Allying is still the weirdest bit. I'm all for Betraying Alice next time if she doesn't have a good explanation though. She's not as douchey as Dio (at least, so far), so she had better have a good reason.
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# ? Nov 21, 2013 00:33 |
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Hobgoblin2099 posted:I'm inclined to believe that our partner could hold a gun to our head and tell us to choose Betray and the thread would still vote Ally.
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# ? Nov 21, 2013 00:35 |
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There have been a lot of ironic things said about this result previously...Aumanor posted:Also, looking at the results of the two combinations we picked, it seems like pairing with Alice at the beginning would result in Luna betrayed by Dio and Quark, Tenmyouji and K-Clover pair betraying mutually, And Alice either betrayed or mutually allied with us. Seems like the best way of keeping most people not n the verge of death. I don't think a single one of these predictions was right. It's what I love about this game - it's always surprising you. legoman727 posted:In the meta sense, Ally still makes more sense when we look at the other routes. We know Ten's going to backstab anyone but Quark, and K and Clover have betrayed both times, leaving them all stuck at 3. Luna's gonna get screwed over by Dio, but if we ally with Alice, that at least leaves us with only one person at 1BP and a lot less risk of murder. Likewise, I think everything said here is wrong in retrospect aside from a couple of the individual votes. We've got three people at 1 BP, and none of them are Luna. Kay Kessler posted:I'm still interested in seeing a Luna vs. Dio round, just to see the aftermath conversation after the inevitable betrayal. Well, the conversation hasn't happened yet, but the betrayal wasn't inevitable after all, was it? Clarste posted:At least he's consistent. He always votes "Betray" 100% of the time. While it's been pointed out that this might have been Quark's decision, if you accept that Dio took the lead in voting Betray the other two times, it's unlikely that Quark would be able to take the reins in this path alone. But who knows? Carlioo posted:but even then Alice still seems like a nice enough person to trust. On the other hand, not all surprises are pleasant.
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# ? Nov 21, 2013 00:43 |
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Looking at the numbers, the average number of points per player is 4, worse than our first time through (4.56), but better than the second (3.78). Had we chosen to betray Alice, if no other player's choice would have been affected, that average would go up to 4.45, still a little short of the first one. Three people are at the death's door and three people have a chance to escape if they betray successfully in the next round, which is, interestingly, the lowest number so far. Also, this the first time we see a combination of choices (pair betray-solo ally, pair ally-solo ally, pair ally-solo betray) repeat itself. Aumanor fucked around with this message at 00:54 on Nov 21, 2013 |
# ? Nov 21, 2013 00:44 |
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Dio allied...? I agree with above posts, that is the most unexpected part about this update. Though I still want to know why Alice chose Betray, I'm a bit more curious about Dio at the moment.
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# ? Nov 21, 2013 01:01 |
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# ? Apr 17, 2024 10:34 |
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So does that men Alice is in on it, or at least knows something we don't? As far as anyone except Phi knows, there's no punishment for hitting 0. That should mean that unless you like the idea of leaving someone behind there's no reason not to ally.
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# ? Nov 21, 2013 01:05 |