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Kangra
May 7, 2012

njsykora posted:

Magenta Pair: Tenmyouji (1) and Quark (6)
Magenta Solo: K (6)

This is setting up a nice route for Quark to actually turn out evil: Suppose Quark convinces him to Ally instead of Betray? Then when K logically votes Betray to stop Quark from winning, Tenmyouji is out. Though there is that question of 'shared destiny' and whether pairs end up dying too.

So long to Zero III (at least for now). I suspect this was the game's way of commenting on the early disappearance of Zero in the other game by addressing it more directly. At least we won't have to hear 'B.O.' for a while. Nicknames that would've been better: "Ronnie", "Holy Diver", "Marlon","Torch-passer","Non-allopath".


I have a theory on Phi's 'seen this before' but I'm uncertain if I'm semi-spoiled by playing a browser game that was apparently influenced by this game. It was linked in the 999 thread and it's called Nobody Has to Die.

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ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

Thankee kindly.

Kangra posted:

At least we won't have to hear 'B.O.' for a while.

I think B.O was chosen to rhyme with Dio - it's a fairly short name and there aren't that many ways to make a nickname out of it. I don't like it but I guess they were strapped on ideas.

I think it's pretty much a given whoever is going with Quark and Tenmyouji is going to have to Betray to prevent Quark from winning, and Quark and Tenmyouji have to betray to prevent Tenmyouji from losing. The only caveat is with Luna - she seems to always Ally, so the pair can either Ally in safety or Betray. I don't know if she'd be willing to Betray just to prevent Quark from winning though.

ThisIsACoolGuy
Nov 2, 2010

Shaped like a friend

Kangra posted:

I have a theory on Phi's 'seen this before' but I'm uncertain if I'm semi-spoiled by playing a browser game that was apparently influenced by this game. It was linked in the 999 thread and it's called Nobody Has to Die.

It was inspired by this game but it has nothing to do with it honestly.

Super Jay Mann
Nov 6, 2008

quote:

And of course it's toooooootally random.
No rules or anything!

Oh yes, I totally believe our little rodent friend is telling the truth here :rolleyes:

The thing I don't get is that if you were one betrayal from death, why would you ever in a million years choose Ally again?

NextTime000
Feb 3, 2011

bweeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
<----------------------------

Added Space posted:

I'd have to go for this option. Dio and Phi together are inevitably going to betray someone and Clover can take a hit; Tenmyouji will keep Quark in line if need be and Luna's a shoe-in to ally with them, and it really simplifies our choice since betraying K is a good choice whatever he does.
and on the plus side, we might be able to see what's up with Alice and K anyway? They are easily the most obvious people we would want to interrogate and have random room objects spark update-long flashbacks with. :allears:

(yes I know they removed the random-object induced long-winded flashbacks to keep the puzzle sections streamlined)

Shear Modulus
Jun 9, 2010



ApplesandOranges posted:

Okay, so our options:

1. Sigma+Alice+K, Tenmyouji+Quark+Luna, Dio+Phi+Clover
2. Sigma+Alice+Luna, Tenmyouji+Quark+Clover, Dio+Phi+K
3. Sigma+Alice+Clover, Tenmyouji+Quark+K, Dio+Phi+Luna

Option 3 sounds like there'll be some nice backstory with Alice+Clover, and doesn't really leave anyone in danger of dying unless Clover betrays and we ally, or K betrays and T+Q ally. Option 2 is nice because Luna's likely to ally and we can either betray her to get Alice to 4 and Sigma to 8, or ally and put both Sigma and Luna in range of winning. The rest generally have little to worry about - Tenmyouji could die but Clover could afford a point less if they agree to let Tenmyouji and Quark betray. Option 1 isn't really that interesting, but Tenmyouji and Quark can get some free points from the trusting Luna and we get K, who's a pretty fascinating character.

Edit: This post was so long and confusing it seemed unsalvageable so I deleted most if it. Basically we have to worry about Alice's life now, and Luna seems to be the safest choice for her for two reasons. First, track record: Luna voted ally last round, but K and Clover voted betray - against Alice even! (but we don't know why :tinfoil:). Second, from a points perspective Luna has the least incentive to vote betray since she'd be one more round away from victory either way while everyone with 6 could betray and escape right away.

Also something about how pitting everyone who has 6 points against each other (Dio/K and Quark/Clover) seems like the safest way to ensure they all betray each other and nobody gets 9 and escapes with people left behind. Conveniently enough this is what happens if we go into a door with Luna!

Shear Modulus fucked around with this message at 22:45 on Jun 6, 2013

Terper
Jun 26, 2012


Super Jay Mann posted:

The thing I don't get is that if you were one betrayal from death, why would you ever in a million years choose Ally again?

What if your opponent was one Betrayal from death as well? Obviously, they're both gonna Ally then, but what if one of them is paired with some rear end in a top hat with 6 points like... I dunno, Dio or K. Or Quark. :v:

Rith
Oct 10, 2012

YOU'VE GOT THAT WRONG!

Terper posted:

What if your opponent was one Betrayal from death as well? Obviously, they're both gonna Ally then

Not necessarily. If your opponent is one betrayal from death, you know they have a huge incentive to pick 'betray', because it's the only way to ensure they won't die in that round. And they know that you also have that incentive, which gives them even more incentive. You'd have to be very, very sure that your opponent would ally if you wanted to pick the 'ally' option.

Hamsterlady
Jul 8, 2010

Corpse Party, bitches.

Terper posted:

What if your opponent was one Betrayal from death as well? Obviously, they're both gonna Ally then, but what if one of them is paired with some rear end in a top hat with 6 points like... I dunno, Dio or K. Or Quark. :v:

I think a 1BP vs 1BP scenario is pretty much setting up both parties to betray no matter what. Both of them allying would be the best outcome for the two of them, but not picking betray when you're at 1BP is the stupidest risk you could possibly take. Even if you talked it over with your opponent and you agreed that allying is the best choice, there's no guarantee that once they're in the AB Room they won't think "Ha, this is a great way to get an easy three BP!" and betray you.

Lotus Aura
Aug 16, 2009

KNEEL BEFORE THE WICKED KING!

Shear Modulus posted:

assume Clover wouldn't do it again all else being equal (like if K tricked her in round 1) she'd still have an incentive to betray (Dio will probably betray Luna and escape without her if she doesn't get to 9).

Considering how Dio's shown himself to be kind of a giant asshat, why would he suddenly care about either Clover or Luna now? :psyduck:

John Lee
Mar 2, 2013

A time traveling adventure everyone can enjoy

Super Jay Mann posted:

The thing I don't get is that if you were one betrayal from death, why would you ever in a million years choose Ally again?

Well, if you trusted somebody. Obviously, trust is in short supply around here, but I can name half a dozen people I know in real life off the top of my head, and probably a dozen more within a minute, that I'd trust to not kill me in the situation of "You can kill this person; do you?"

The issue is that trusting these people, in this situation, can be difficult. But I think for at least half of them, from what we've seen so far, I'd be cool with choosing Ally if we had agreed to do so beforehand.

I mean, I wouldn't see K, for example, betraying me; he's a cool guy, seems reasonable, and I have a hard time believing that if I said "Yo, K, let's choose Ally. you in?"
"But, John, if I betray you, you will die."
"Yeah, but you're not gonna do that, because it's nearly pointless, right? A one-point boost in exchange for killing a guy, when we already know everybody can get out with enough points? Even motivated by selfishness, it'd just make you job harder later."

And if he DID turn out to be a cackling villain who says "HOHOHOHO, YOU FOOL! NOW YOU ARE DEAD, AND I HAVE ANOTHER POINT!", it'd be worth the small risk I took to let everybody else know that K is a douchbag, and a poor planner at that.

Shear Modulus
Jun 9, 2010



Dragonatrix posted:

Considering how Dio's shown himself to be kind of a giant asshat, why would he suddenly care about either Clover or Luna now? :psyduck:

Oops. That whole post was a giant pile of word salad that I edited for like 15 minutes in a vain attempt to make it clear and completely forgot to clarify that. What I meant to say is that in a world where everyone goes with option 3, Dio betraying Luna and Luna allying with Dio is pretty likely. This puts Dio up to 9. Clover will probably realize this and might decide to betray Alice and Sigma to get herself up to 9 because she knows she's hosed if she doesn't have 9 when Dio tries to escape.

John Lee posted:

And if he DID turn out to be a cackling villain who says "HOHOHOHO, YOU FOOL! NOW YOU ARE DEAD, AND I HAVE ANOTHER POINT!", it'd be worth the small risk I took to let everybody else know that K is a douchbag, and a poor planner at that.

Well yeah, but for K right now the difference between allying and betraying isn't just another point, it's the critical point that makes the difference between escaping immediately and having to wait another round. Same goes for Dio, Clover and Quark obviously.

Shear Modulus fucked around with this message at 21:19 on Jun 6, 2013

Terper
Jun 26, 2012


Rith posted:

Not necessarily. If your opponent is one betrayal from death, you know they have a huge incentive to pick 'betray', because it's the only way to ensure they won't die in that round. And they know that you also have that incentive, which gives them even more incentive. You'd have to be very, very sure that your opponent would ally if you wanted to pick the 'ally' option.

Right, when I said "obviously", I was kinda exempting Dio, K, and Quark because I sort of trust the others to not be horrible murde- oh right, Clover. Carry on.

ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

Thankee kindly.
One thing about the K/Clover betrayal is that they had no idea about the penalties for dropping to 0 BP - Zero III didn't say that they'd die either if someone escapes, just be trapped here. Alice didn't seem to mind until the penalties were explained - likely Clover and Alice just thought it was fine for just one of them to escape and come back with help later. Now that Clover knows she might be killing Alice she'd be a lot less inclined to betray her. We don't know anything about K, so we don't know if he'd kill someone by betraying.

In any case, there's little point for Sigma or Luna to betray here for their own benefit since they can't win this round. Phi doesn't need to betray either, but she's paired with Dio who likely would.

booksnake
May 4, 2009

we who are crowned with the crest of wisdom
I want to go with Option 3 just because I want to see if that's a bad ending resulting from Luna allying and Dio/Phi betraying and Dio going "gently caress you got mine".

RoeCocoa
Oct 23, 2010

DarkHamsterlord posted:

I think a 1BP vs 1BP scenario is pretty much setting up both parties to betray no matter what.

Then again, doing it that way means you would stay at 1 BP forever, meaning you never have a chance to escape. If you betray, it's a 50/50 chance between dying slowly or making yourself an even bigger target for future betrayals; if you ally, you either die in nine minutes or gain 2 points and a friend. So it comes down to individual preference.

Skunkrocker
Jan 14, 2012

Your favorite furry wrestler.
The important factor is now they know that if they lose all their BP, they die. Knowing this, anyone who picks betray at this point is a loving evil rear end in a top hat because the only way for someone to lose points is if someone picks betray.

whitehelm
Apr 20, 2008

John Lee posted:

Well, if you trusted somebody. Obviously, trust is in short supply around here, but I can name half a dozen people I know in real life off the top of my head, and probably a dozen more within a minute, that I'd trust to not kill me in the situation of "You can kill this person; do you?"

The issue is that trusting these people, in this situation, can be difficult. But I think for at least half of them, from what we've seen so far, I'd be cool with choosing Ally if we had agreed to do so beforehand.

I mean, I wouldn't see K, for example, betraying me; he's a cool guy, seems reasonable, and I have a hard time believing that if I said "Yo, K, let's choose Ally. you in?"
"But, John, if I betray you, you will die."
"Yeah, but you're not gonna do that, because it's nearly pointless, right? A one-point boost in exchange for killing a guy, when we already know everybody can get out with enough points? Even motivated by selfishness, it'd just make you job harder later."

And if he DID turn out to be a cackling villain who says "HOHOHOHO, YOU FOOL! NOW YOU ARE DEAD, AND I HAVE ANOTHER POINT!", it'd be worth the small risk I took to let everybody else know that K is a douchbag, and a poor planner at that.

Huh? K has 6 points, and literally the only thing we know about him is that he was willing to betray in round 1. It's not nearly pointless for him to betray someone, he gets to leave if he successfully does it. Plus, he's the biggest guy here, no one's going to be able to stop him from leaving.

Color Printer
May 9, 2011

You get used to it. I don't
even see the code. All I see
is Ipecac, Scapular, Polyphemus...


whitehelm posted:

Huh? K has 6 points, and literally the only thing we know about him is that he was willing to betray in round 1.

Not quite! We didn't hear anything about what happened with K and Clover. We can guess, but we have no idea. It's sort of the same thing with Dio and Quark; we're pretty sure we know what happened, but not 100% certain.

Hamsterlady
Jul 8, 2010

Corpse Party, bitches.

RoeCocoa posted:

Then again, doing it that way means you would stay at 1 BP forever, meaning you never have a chance to escape. If you betray, it's a 50/50 chance between dying slowly or making yourself an even bigger target for future betrayals; if you ally, you either die in nine minutes or gain 2 points and a friend. So it comes down to individual preference.

It's a hard choice to make. Trusting your life to someone you just met seems like a terrible idea, but if you do nothing but betray as long as your BP is at 1 or 2, you're pretty much guaranteeing no one will ally with you and you'd be stuck in the building for the rest of your life. But even if you agree to ally with your opponent beforehand and trust them not to murder you, will they trust you not to murder them, or will they betray in self defense?

The best choice is probably to avoid getting into that situation at all. Avoid pairing up with others with low BP, and then your opponent is likely to ally because they don't want to be a murderer. Even if you betray them, I'm sure it wouldn't be difficult for the others to understand why you did it. Of course, your opponent would know you'll almost definitely betray, so they still might betray in order to keep you from pushing you two points closer to death.

Dragongem
Nov 9, 2009

Heroes of the Storm
Goon Tournament Champion

Super Jay Mann posted:

Oh yes, I totally believe our little rodent friend is telling the truth here :rolleyes:

The thing I don't get is that if you were one betrayal from death, why would you ever in a million years choose Ally again?

There is one thing the announcer mentioned- if a party doesn't vote they are automatically set to ally. So I guess you could give someone YE OLD FISTICUFFS and then tie them up or something so they can't vote...then you could pick Ally! Hooray!

Of course you fisticuffed a guy so it may not pay off in any later rounds...but that's a different issue.

Dragongem fucked around with this message at 21:54 on Jun 6, 2013

NextTime000
Feb 3, 2011

bweeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
<----------------------------

Skunkrocker posted:

The important factor is now they know that if they lose all their BP, they die. Knowing this, anyone who picks betray at this point is a loving evil rear end in a top hat because the only way for someone to lose points is if someone picks betray.

at the same time, picking betray is the only way to ensure you don't lose points. so for Alice and Tenmyogi betrayal can be seen as a logical choice to protect themselves from dieing. in the 1bp vs 1bp situation, only a fool would pick ally.

Likewise, should we partner up with K or Clover, there is no reason not to pick betray; as we prevent the solo from betraying us and entering "Got Mine gently caress You" mode.

no-matter who the pair-ups will be, I think there will be an all-out brawl in Phi and Dio's AB room seeing as Dio needs only to betray to win, but on the flipside of the coin, Phi could go along with the betrayal simply to, again, stop K or Clover from hitting their 9 off of them.

a bit of a conundrum here, as we have 4 people who could get theirs and go and 2 who are at Death's door...

so really the question is not who are we going to pair up with to ally/betray, but dynamics of the other 2 groups...

RoeCocoa
Oct 23, 2010

NextTime000 posted:

so really the question is not who are we going to pair up with to ally/betray, but dynamics of the other 2 groups...

Yellow pair: Phi, who wanted to betray Luna, and Dio, who may have lied to and subsequently badmouthed a little kid.
Magenta pair: Tenmyouji, who's hurting, and Quark, who may or may not have sold out his own grandfather and lied to his face.
All of the solos: gained points in the last round, can afford to lose some in this one

No matter who we pick or how we handle the next AB vote, we can't possibly reach 9 points on the next round, but Clover, K, Dio or Quark can.

Expanding on what Shear Modulus and ApplesandOranges said:

If we pick Clover or K, there's a decent chance that Alice will die in the next round, and I don't want to test the limits of what Zero meant by "shared fate." Even if our solo doesn't betray, whoever has 6 points and gets Luna as a solo is all but guaranteed to hit the magic number, and I don't trust Dio or Quark to stick around and wait for the rest of us to earn our 9 points.

Green (Luna) seems like the safe choice. For everyone with five points, regardless of whether they betray or ally, they will need at least two more rounds to reach 9, so the smart choice is to stick together as much as possible and ally-ally. Picking Luna also means that all of the people with 6 points are pitted against each other, locking them into an almost guaranteed betray-betray situation and thus maintaining the status quo for one more round.

On the other hand, picking red means we get Alice and Clover together, which might give us some more insight into the Nonary Game. And then we can die horribly and start over.

Blueberry Pancakes
Aug 18, 2012

Jack in!! MegaMan, Execute!

Fedule posted:


Sadly, we may never meet again.

VLR OST: [Confession]

Ahh, the sad music of this game. Perfect place to have it play for the first time. :allears:

Seriously, though, not having Zero III's antics anymore is pretty upsetting.

Pierzak
Oct 30, 2010
Why oh why didn't we get the recording of Zero3 going "waah waah I'll miss you guys JUST KIDDING"? :(

VVV: Welp, I thought that one got cut off earlier. Never mind then, I'm a stupid bird.

Pierzak fucked around with this message at 01:11 on Jun 7, 2013

whitehelm
Apr 20, 2008

Pierzak posted:

Why oh why didn't we get the recording of Zero3 going "waah waah I'll miss you guys JUST KIDDING"? :(

You mean this recording which was marked "Listen in or miss out"?

Aerdan
Apr 14, 2012

Not Dennis NEDry

Super Jay Mann posted:

Oh yes, I totally believe our little rodent friend is telling the truth here :rolleyes:

I'm terribly sorry, but rabbits are Lagomorpha, not Rodentia. :spergin:

DopeGhoti
May 24, 2009

Lipstick Apathy

Aerdan posted:

I'm terribly sorry, but rabbits are Lagomorpha, not Rodentia. :spergin:

A bit of trivia which I will never be able to forget, thanks to Sam & Max Hit The Road: "I'm not a misanthrope; I'm a lagomorph!"

Fedule
Mar 27, 2010


No one left uncured.
I got you.
So here's an interesting thing I've been distracted into thinking about. If we're going to overthink the AB Game, let's at least overthink it *right*.

The AB game is, or, rather qualifies as, an Iterated Prisoner's Dilemma (that is, if you ignore the boundary conditions - where 0 points = death and 9 points = escape (maybe)).

The proven best strategy in the Iterated Prisoner's Dilemma is affectionately known as Tit for Tat. It is extremely simple, even expressed algorithmically:

1) In the first round, always Ally
2) In each round after the first, do what your opponent did in the last round.

In tests pitting various algorithmically determined strategies against eachother, Tit for Tat generally ends up doing better in the long run - I say generally because you could get outliers such as an Always-Ally getting paired up with an Always Betray, but when you compare *all* the data, Tit for Tat does tends to do better for itself against any given opponent than other strategies.

Tit for Tat is characterized with the following four qualities, which are observable in all of the well-performing strategies currently known:

Nice: Assumes good faith at the outset, enters with intention of maximizing mutual benefit.
Retaliating: Not a moron, recognizes that some opponents will not play along with above
Forgiving: Recognizes that opponents who betray several times continuously might decide to start allying
Non-envious: While seeking to maximize own score, does not seek to beat anyone. (If you think about it, a Nice strategy can't beat anyone)

A note about that last one: As a rule, to qualify as an Iterated Prisoner's Dilemma, your four quantified outcomes have to be measured such that

(using Zero III's terminology)

( (Best Pals) * 2 ) > ( (Serves Them Right) + (Stupid Jerkface))

in order to create a situation where continued Alliance is preferable to taking turns Betraying eathother, creating the characteristic dilemma where each player faces a choice between the great-ish good for all and the greatest good for only themselves. The AB Game meets these requirements: 2*2 > 3-2.

If you match Tit for Tat against Always Ally, you'll get continuous alliance. Contrast this situation with Always Ally vs Always Betray. Always Betray will get more points than Tit for Tat when playing against Always Ally, but Tit for Tat doesn't care because it's also maximizing the total points for both itself and its opponent combined.

(Matching Tit for Tat against itself might as well be the same as matching it against Always Ally)

If you match Tit for Tat against Always Betray, it'll Ally once, take one hit, and then continuously Betray to minimize further losses. Contrast with any other algorithm that might at some point decide to try Allying against Always Betray - Tit for Tat will always score better than such algorithms.

If you match Tit for Tat against any other deterministic algorithm, well. Obviously, the exact outcome depends on the opponent, but in general, any Nice algorithm will eventually - if not immediately - settle into a cycle of Always Ally, and any Nasty algorithm (ie, the kind that tries maximize its own score by Betraying) will be able to get at most one Betrayal in before getting deadlocked, and won't be able to convince Tit for Tat to Ally until it allows Tit for Tat to Betray it - this sets an absolute lower bound on Tit for Tat's score of whatever the starting score is plus whatever the Stupid Jerkface payoff is.

Its success is largely dependant on the fact that it doesn't need to try and figure out what its opponent will do in each round but still protects itself against losses, while other algorithms - at least, other, non-simplistic algorithms - that do try also bear the risk and the price of failing at this.

(Its only serious competitor is known as "Tit for Tat with forgiveness", which expands on the current functionality by adding a condition where, if an opponent Betrays, Tit for Tat has a small percentage chance of Allying anyway, thus speeding up the mutual alliance)


HOOOOOOOOOOOOOWEVER!!

All of this - absolutely all of it - is assuming a game where you play continuously against the same opponent for N rounds (plus that whole thing where the game is about getting more points rather than trying to be the first to some total).

So here we have the AB game, which expands on the Iterated Prisoner's Dilemma in two ways:

  • It adds the aforementioned boundary conditions. The first one is easy - hitting 0 means death, which is the absolute worst outcome and supersedes any score consideration. The second is a bit trickier - hitting 9 means you can escape, which is the absolute best outcome BUT once you hit 9 you're now faced with an additional dilemma where you can either leave immediately along with anyone else who has 9 and damning the rest, or you can stay until more people hit 9, while trying to remain on 9 yourself, and knowing that one of the other players with 9 can end the game whenever they wish.
  • You swap opponents every game, but each player maintains their own persistent score and knows every other players' history.
  • Players can communicate between rounds.

Let's just disregard that last one. Let's also ignore, for the time being, the pair mechanic. Let's assume that Tit for Tat can magically override its partner in a pair, and let's remember that it doesn't care what its opponent's strategy is (so we don't need to account for how other players act in pairs (or do we?)).

The consideration I put to you (in particular the budding Game Theorists in the thread) is:

How does Tit for Tat perform in the AB Game?

Let's make some convenient stipulations:

  • Tit for Tat handles switching opponents by basing its actions on the history of its opponent (which is, of course, known).
  • Tit for Tat will try to delay the end of the game until all players have 9 points.
  • Make up whatever logic you like for how other players will handle the decision to escape when on 9 points.
  • Being left behind is, in outcome terms, equal to death.
  • Let's not try and model all the bracelet and door crap and instead just randomly match players up to eachother.

How far can we analyze this before it breaks down?

I'll make the obvious first statement: The staying alive condition, combined with the switching opponents condition, adds an interesting wrinkle. Normally, if Tit for Tat is betrayed it will immediately switch to Betrayal mode to protect itself. However, if Tit for Tat is Betrayed in the first round of an AB Game and is then matched up with someone who Allied in the last round, then Tit for Tat will choose Ally in the next round, thus putting it in danger of being Betrayed twice in a row (and thus dying). The more general problem is that Tit for Tat can now be fooled by any player who Allies in one round and Betrays in the next. Somewhat less generally but more fascinating is that, across three rounds, one Tit for Tat might be "tricked" into killing another Tit for Tat:

R1: TT1 mutually allies with P3, goes to 5. TT2 is betrayed by P4, goes to 1. P5 allies but is betrayed by P6.
R2: TT1 is matched with P5, allies. TT2 is matched with P6, mutually betrays. P3 and P4 have a party or something, who cares.
R3: TT1 is matched with TT2. TT1 betrays and kills TT2. P3, P4, P5 and P6 have a big argument about Game Theory.

Do these "problems" persist in any combination of payoffs (ie, if you change the starting points, escape value and scoring system (while making sure it stays within the IPD rules))?
Why haven't I gone to bed yet?

Medieval Medic
Sep 8, 2011
I feel like the best scenario right now with the choice we have is Sigma+Alice+Luna, Tenmyouji+Quark+Clover, Dio+Phi+K.

Sigma and Luna is a good combo, we already allied, there is no reason to betray, which means Alice will go back up two. Dio, Phi and K can go screw themselves because we know they will all betray each other which means they don't get to escape before us. What is interesting is the second group. Tenmouyji will be the person to decide what to do in that pair, likely betray to keep himself from dying, and also because Clover was in a pair that betrayed previously. The most favorable outcome is for Clover to be a bro and take a hit for them.

Supposing this works out: Quark has 8 points; Sigma and Luna have 7 points; Dio and K have 6 points; Phi has 5 points; Tenmyouji and Clover have 4 points; Alice has 3.

vvvv Indeed I, I was wrong, it is 9 instead of 8. Still, he is a kid, it can't be that hard to prevent him from escaping on his own.

Medieval Medic fucked around with this message at 04:55 on Jun 7, 2013

W.T. Fits
Apr 21, 2010

Ready to Poyozo Dance all over your face.

Medieval Medic posted:

I feel like the best scenario right now with the choice we have is Sigma+Alice+Luna, Tenmyouji+Quark+Clover, Dio+Phi+K.

Sigma and Luna is a good combo, we already allied, there is no reason to betray, which means Alice will go back up two. Dio, Phi and K can go screw themselves because we know they will all betray each other which means they don't get to escape before us. What is interesting is the second group. Tenmouyji will be the person to decide what to do in that pair, likely betray to keep himself from dying, and also because Clover was in a pair that betrayed previously. The most favorable outcome is for Clover to be a bro and take a hit for them.

Supposing this works out: Quark has 8 points; Sigma and Luna have 7 points; Dio and K have 6 points; Phi has 5 points; Tenmyouji and Clover have 4 points; Alice has 3.

Your math's off; if Tenmyoji and Quark pick Betray and Clover picks Ally, then Quark would have 9 BP.

King of Solomon
Oct 23, 2008

S S

Medieval Medic posted:

Supposing this works out: Quark has 8 points; Sigma and Luna have 7 points; Dio and K have 6 points; Phi has 5 points; Tenmyouji and Clover have 4 points; Alice has 3.

That would put Quark at 9 points, actually.

Meirlkor
Feb 18, 2013

W.T. Fits posted:

Your math's off; if Tenmyoji and Quark pick Betray and Clover picks Ally, then Quark would have 9 BP.

Either way, unless Quark really is the budding psychopath that Dio made him out to be, Quark strikes me more as the kind of guy (kid) who'd stick around with 9 points to help out the rest, making this a Good Choice(TM).
What's he gonna do when he gets out, anyway? How well can he fend for himself? It's not like anyone's going to listen to a kid, right?

Yggdrasil325
Jul 24, 2011

Disregarding anything else, the Tit for Tat killing another Tit for Tat can be overcome by adding two rules:
1. If losing points would drop you below zero, always choose betray, regardless of your opponent's last choice.
2. If your opponent would drop below zero by losing points, always choose ally, regardless of their last choice, except if condition 1 holds.

It's impossible to lose points if you betray your opponent, and it's impossible to kill anyone by allying. In the dire circumstance that two near-death TfTs face off, they will both choose betray, continue the stalemate, and hope to get opponents who have points to spare.

slowbeef
Mar 15, 2005

Will Harvey hates you, and everything you stand for.
Pillbug

Fedule posted:

The AB game is, or, rather qualifies as, an Iterated Prisoner's Dilemma

Actually VLR gets Prisoner's Dilemma a little wrong. Double betrayal should hurt both the prisoners (but less so than being betrayed). As it stands, double betrayal doesn't really do anything to the "prisoners."

I know someone's going to argue they're racing to get 9 before other people, and "technically" hurt, but if you're looking at the Ambidex Game on its own (i.e. outside of the Nonary Game proper), it's not a great form of PD. And actually, I do think it would've made the game more interesting if double betrayal lost both parties 1 point or something, but you'd probably have to tweak the numbers a bit.

edit: To expound on it, from a game theory perspective, double betrayal is a "bad" choice; it's the 2nd worst alternative but the only one you can safely bet on. In the Ambidex game, double betrayal is neutral.

slowbeef fucked around with this message at 04:59 on Jun 7, 2013

Phelddagrif
Jan 28, 2009

Before I do anything, I think, well what hasn't been seen. Sometimes, that turns out to be something ghastly and not fit for society. And sometimes that inspiration becomes something that's really worthwhile.
I'm guessing that the "auto-ally" rule for those who don't vote will have to change for the next rounds (auto-betray, perhaps?) since the players know what ally means now. Otherwise, they could just agree as a group to not play the AB game at all. Everyone stays out of the rooms, everyone allies, everyone gets 2 points risk-free.

King of Solomon
Oct 23, 2008

S S

slowbeef posted:

Actually VLR gets Prisoner's Dilemma a little wrong. Double betrayal should hurt both the prisoners (but less so than being betrayed). As it stands, double betrayal doesn't really do anything to the "prisoners."

I know someone's going to argue they're racing to get 9 before other people, and "technically" hurt, but if you're looking at the Ambidex Game on its own (i.e. outside of the Nonary Game proper), it's not a great form of PD. And actually, I do think it would've made the game more interesting if double betrayal lost both parties 1 point or something, but you'd probably have to tweak the numbers a bit.

I disagree, I think +/- 0 is appropriate for mutual betrayal. Consider that they are essentially in a race to 9 points. Losing points is the worst thing that can happen, and will kill you if you lose enough of them. Fail to escape, which is possible, and you are effectively dead. You aren't killed immediately like if you go below 0 points, but the number 9 door only opens once. Once it closes, escape is not possible. You will die in that facility.

slowbeef
Mar 15, 2005

Will Harvey hates you, and everything you stand for.
Pillbug

King of Solomon posted:

Once it closes, escape is not possible. You will die in that facility.

I covered that in my post.

lotus circle
Dec 25, 2012

Jushure Iburu
So don't worry
I have to say, I'm looking forward to the next voting round and seeing what those reading blind will choose. It'll be a different voting process than we had the first time, where you were just picking who looked interesting. Now you need to actually think on who would benefit you best during the AB Game.

I imagine Luna will be the popular choice because she allied with you once before, but consider the following: K and Clover absolutely cannot pick Betray this time. Alice has 1 BP and now everyone is aware that dropping to 0 means death. Even if Sigma and Alice pick Betray and the Solo they go against pick Betray, the latter can easily be accused of attempted murder because Alice's 1 BP. For their best interest it would be naturally wiser to pick Ally unless they're cool with admitting that they were willing to kill someone to get out. Even if they may lose 2 of their points for it, it's a smarter alternative to attempting murder if they plan to get anyone to trust them again.

In short pairing up with Alice is the best possible situation. In theory, it gives you a free Ally-Ally no matter who you go with. Unless K or Clover are really big enough assholes to attempt murder by way of the AB Game, they're guaranteed to ally with you and it's more likely that Luna would pick Ally a second time than Betray.

(Also I swear I'm not giving anything away in this, I'm just commenting on the mechanics of the AB game in regards to gameplay and how the characters act in this situation. It's what makes VLR I think a great sequel and even superior to 999 in a way.)

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King of Solomon
Oct 23, 2008

S S

slowbeef posted:

I covered that in my post.

Looking over it again, yeah, you did. Unfortunately, taking the AB game out of the context of the Nonary Game as a whole (and the penalty of failing to escape) isn't a good idea.

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