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Aumanor
Nov 9, 2012
So... Our perfect strategy of having no one play the AB game goes down the drain- trying that will just get everyone killed. I guess it would make no sense for Zero to leave a zero-risk solution to the problem.

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Aumanor
Nov 9, 2012

Added Space posted:

:eng101: Right-o. We're hitting something called the Nash equilibrium. That is, in a situation where there are many choices of action people will tend towards the collection of choices where no-one would be happier making a different choice. In the Prisoner's Dilemma, if both parties choose to ally, one would be happier choosing betray since they get more points.

I'm not so sure about this applies completely to this game- some people (us, apparently Luna and... well... drat.) seem to have geting everyone out of there alive as their goal- ally-ally is a much better outcome for them than a favourable betray-ally as it maximizes the total points gain.

Luna being Zero seems like one of the most likely options right now, at least from the metagame'y point of view, but I think that if anything, that makes her the best possible candidate for pairing up with as often as possible and feeding her points by ally-ally. If she's indeed Zero, she has the least incentive to win of all the participants.

Aumanor fucked around with this message at 23:41 on Jun 17, 2013

Aumanor
Nov 9, 2012

Super Jay Mann posted:

So Luna has a medical license but doesn't seem to be a doctor/nurse (or at least not a general practitioner) if her hesitancy to Sigma's question is any indication.

Taking bets on what her medical license is actually for!

Medical Physics?

Aumanor
Nov 9, 2012

WELP:ohdear: There go all the hopes of this not turning into an unsalvageable clusterfuck. Hopefully we'll do better next time, because there's no loving way this won't culminate in a gruesome bad end.

As for the identity of the killer, my personal bet's on Quark- Alice seemed to have found him in the end of the previous update and he didn't look very stable the last time we saw him.

As for Clover, I just really hope there aren't any axes around...

Aumanor
Nov 9, 2012
Uhh... Like many people here I expected Luna to be hiding something, but I was thinking more along the lines of some, not neccessarily malicious involvement with Zero and the Nonary Game, kinda like Snake in the previous game. Right now it seems more like we've found our resident Ace.

So... out of our co-participants so far, Alice's dead, Dio's an rear end in a top hat,K has his identity completely obscured and claims to have amnesia, Clover's paranoid and witholding potentially vital information, Quark may or may not be murderously insane, Tenmyouji's just admitted to having co-operated with Zero, Phi's spouting cryptic lines idicating that she knows more than she should but she refuses to share her knowledge or reveal the source, and even if Luna hadn't killed the old lady, she'd almost certainly seen it and didn't tell anyone.
We're in some deeeeep poo poo, last game we at least had Lotus.

Aumanor
Nov 9, 2012
Hmmm... Y'know, before this update I was wondering if the dead old woman might have been the original participant and if Luna could just be wearing her bracelet. Do we even know if the bracelets can be worn after they've been taken off a dead participant's body? And if yes, are they still dangerous if one's BP go down to zero?

Aumanor
Nov 9, 2012
One detail that caught my eye:



Is it just me, or is Dio holding something that looks suspiciously like the syringe gun in his left hand?

Aumanor
Nov 9, 2012
Crackpot theory time: K is alive and his armor is empty. He opened it with the key, took it off, killed Dio with the spear, closed the armor from outside, smeared it with Dio's blood and hit it with the axe so that it short circuited. I'm not sure why he would plant the key on Dio's body afterwards, but details should never limit crazy theories.

Aumanor
Nov 9, 2012
This... this is looking bad :ohdear:

Let's hope that Luna, Alice or Phi will be our partner in the next ambidex game because they look like the only ones we can trust not to kill us by pressing a button. getting anyone else will probably just end in a stalemate with both parties betraying.

I wonder how many of the participants know about the penalty for zero points and are actually out to murder other participants.

Also, looking at the results of the two combinations we picked, it seems like pairing with Alice at the beginning would result in Luna betrayed by Dio and Quark, Tenmyouji and K-Clover pair betraying mutually, And Alice either betrayed or mutually allied with us. Seems like the best way of keeping most people not n the verge of death.

Aumanor
Nov 9, 2012
Welp... All the solos are betrayers, looks like we'll be staying at 1 point (and on the brink of death) at least untill the AB game after the next. And it seems that regardless of the teams chosen here, no one has any incentive to ally with anyone they can get this round. This is looking like a stalemate (not to mention a total clusterfuck) already...

Aumanor
Nov 9, 2012
What happens if we decide to screw over the others and choose Quark? If it's possible at all this would be the best option. Since he can't wote he defaults to Ally meaning that if we betray him we're sure to get three points. This would at once remove the danger of getting killed by 0 points, set us up to get to 9 points by a combination of mutual alliance and one-sided betrayal, and ascertain that Quark doesn't get 9 points from the AB game after this one. And it doesn't seem like Clover getting 9 points poses any risk to us.

If we can't do that, I think K and Alice are more likely to betray Quark, and achieve at least one of the goals above. Thus, the next best option would be going with Ten. The downside of that is K fetting 9 points, and we don't know enough about him to be sure he doesn't go all "so long, losers". Whoever we chose, though, betrayal in the AB game seems like the only reasonable option, both because of the whole "tit for tat" rule, and because otherwise we'd risk death.

E:

Fedule posted:

This seems like a good time to remind everyone that you can vote for multiple options if you like.
Ok, gonna do that.

Aumanor
Nov 9, 2012
Well, all I can hope for now is that Phi betrays Quark, but since she's paired with Luna, I'm not holding my breath. Especially given the fact that so far this path seems pretty intent on denying us any options to improve our situation.

Aumanor
Nov 9, 2012

Onmi posted:

So we're picking Betray at Dio right? I mean... really?

Yeah, I don't really see any other options. The problem is, I don't see Dio choosing anything other than betrayal either, so we'll probably end this round on 1 point.

Aumanor
Nov 9, 2012

Eeepies posted:

But what if Dio is a kind-hearted soul and picks ally, allowing Clover to leave immediately? :ohdear: I really want to pick Ally though, just to see what happens when Sigma dies while everyone goes 'you deserved that you idiot'.

Out of all the players that can reach 9 points in this round, I'd say Clover is the one we can safely allow to. She won't escape without Alice, who won't get to 9 for at least 3 more rounds, and even if they were both above the threshold, tey seem to be more interested in figuring zero and this place out than bailing out of here.

Aumanor
Nov 9, 2012

ApplesandOranges posted:

Unless Alice dies again, in which case she'd probably flip everyone the bird and throw the switch.


Well, Quark's sedated now and, seeing as he had a knife, I think he's the one who shived Alice. And we aren't even sure Clover was the one to cause that mayhem from the last path. And even if we were, at least her screwing us is conditional, and pending on something that's now less likely to happen. On the other hand, Dio seems just like he'll hightail it at the first chance he gets (the only good thing in this configuration is that by betraying we're making sure he doen't get any closer to nine this round), K is a completely unkown factor here, and Tenmyouji is apparently trying to get Quark out of here with complete and utter disregard for all other participants. The one thing I'm wondering about is if he'll try to get out together with Quark, or if he'll chose to stay and send the kid off alone if Quark's above the threshold and he's not. Either way, we should do our damnedest to keep those two from pairing with each other.

Aumanor
Nov 9, 2012
Aaaaand, surprise, Dio REALLY is an rear end in a top hat. Who would have thought. Though honestly, for a moment there (until the "this game is about manipulating people" line) I hoped, against all reason, that he was just trying to ascertain an Ally-Ally result. At least we've got the whole "who of the Dio-Quark pair voted betray" question out of the way. Anyways, I don't think Dio thought that plan through. Blackmailing someone only really works if you can follow through on the threat, while if we pick betray and Dio does smash the bottle, he's staying here for the rest of his life, because there's no way in hell anyone allies with him after that. I just hope he's smart enough to realise that.
...And not smart enough to realise he could just kill the next person he's paired up with in the next game to get them to auto-ally...
...poo poo. You know, I have this creeping suspicion we may be thoroughly hosed no matter what we do.

Aumanor fucked around with this message at 12:20 on Oct 20, 2013

Aumanor
Nov 9, 2012
Voting betray because :
a)Dio's a bastard, I don't see any chance at all of him chosing ally,
b)I never caught on to the whole Clover hating train, so I neither see the need for keeping her from 9BP nor have any urge to act contrary to her,
c)I'm not really into making the choices in a metagame'y "maybe we can finally see a death scene and just try the other choice next/ just try another path from scratch",
d)I don't see Dio having the balls to make good on his threat if it means he's at 6 BP, surrounded by very angry people, and finally,
f)he tried to blackmail Sigma and that alone, even if none of the above mattered, would be enough for me to vote to the contrary.

Aumanor fucked around with this message at 23:46 on Oct 29, 2013

Aumanor
Nov 9, 2012
I have to say, I'm really baffled by how some people seem to consider Clover a bigger threat than Dio. Guess it's just another one of those character love/hate/paranoia trains so frequent on this site that I didn't hop on. Sometimes I think I'm just not a very good goon :v:.

Aumanor
Nov 9, 2012
Aaand, we're dead.
On the positive side, it seems like this situation is as huge a clusterfuck as it can get...
...I'm being incredibly naive, am I not?

Can't say i agree that the title's proving particularily adequate in this particular case- allying here wasn't being good or virtuous, it was just suicidally stupid.

So, now that Dio's gone and killed us(HUGE TWIST!!!), I'm really curious as to the workings of the goonmind. How many of you who voted ally actually expected Dio not to betray? How many of you have already played through the game and just wanted to force this particular outcome? Do you think you could make a quick pol on the side, Fedule?

And now that this path is pretty much behind us, A quick reflection and a few crackpot theories:

-This seems a strong candidate for the route Phi had observed in our previous run: would explain her fear of allying and her doing what she could to prevent Dio from voting.

-Now that we know about what Radical-6 does, it would seem that some of the "murders" might have actually been suicides. I have a particularily strong suspicion about Luna. We've seen Clover enter the room where she died, apparently arguing with her and then escaping. If my theory's correct, Luna's snapped in the middle of the argument, pulled out the needle gun and shot herself in the vein. Other possible candidates for suicide are the old lady and Alice, though there might have been some prof to the contrary I'm just not remembering right now.

-I'd say that we can now be sure Dio is the one to force a betrayal in the first round of AB game, and quite possibly the one who killed everyone who didn't commit suicide (with the obvious exception of himself :v:)

E: spelling fixed.

Aumanor fucked around with this message at 00:45 on Nov 1, 2013

Aumanor
Nov 9, 2012

DarkHamsterlord posted:

Sure it was. We saved Quark's life, assuming Dio doesn't decide to be a double-dick and smash the bottle anyway.

I just really don't see about any chance of Dio making good on his side of the bargain- he literally doesn't have a single reason to do so. He's already killed one person, and can now escape. Which, as you might remember, means that even if Quark gets the vaccine, he's still stuck there until the end of his life, along with all the others who stay.

So no, suicidally stupid and possibly harmful to everyone else involved (possibly because K getting to 9 and leaving might render the influence on others a moot point) is all this decision was.

Aumanor fucked around with this message at 23:57 on Oct 31, 2013

Aumanor
Nov 9, 2012
Considering that the one time we voted betray so far we got an immediate game over, I Ally's the most sensible option here.

Aumanor
Nov 9, 2012

Sentient Data posted:

If you mean ties to anyone else in-nonary-game, I don't think we know one way or the other yet, but if you mean ties to the outside world he did say he has a daughter in an earlier path. Granted, it could be a lie since he's an rear end, but it does seem like he has some twisted code of personal ethics that does actually exist. He kept his word about the medicine - he only smashed it if we were the one who double-crossed him by going against our own word

Counterpoint: He stole the only cure that could prevent a child's death, and then demanded we let ourselves get killed in return for it, and when we didn't let ourselves get blackmailed smashed it out of pure spite despite it giving him absolutely no personal gain. Personal code or not, he's simply a son of a bitch and there's absolutely nothing that could possibly defend or justify his actions. On my personal list of goals to try to achieve by voting, his death takes a very prominent place.

Aumanor
Nov 9, 2012
Well... that just happened. Huh. Shows us how much our careful predictions based on detailed analysis of previous paths are worth, I guess. I think I'm gonna officially cease expecting ANYTHING at this point. Just buckle up my seatbelts, and take in the experience :suspense:.

On a little bit more constructive note, why the hell did Alice suddenly betray? Why the hell did Tenmyouji ally? Seems like finding that dead old woman actually had a huge impact on everyone's choices.

Aumanor fucked around with this message at 00:28 on Nov 21, 2013

Aumanor
Nov 9, 2012
Looking at the numbers, the average number of points per player is 4, worse than our first time through (4.56), but better than the second (3.78). Had we chosen to betray Alice, if no other player's choice would have been affected, that average would go up to 4.45, still a little short of the first one. Three people are at the death's door and three people have a chance to escape if they betray successfully in the next round, which is, interestingly, the lowest number so far.
Also, this the first time we see a combination of choices (pair betray-solo ally, pair ally-solo ally, pair ally-solo betray) repeat itself.

Aumanor fucked around with this message at 00:54 on Nov 21, 2013

Aumanor
Nov 9, 2012

Elite posted:

I was going to quote my favourite parts from that last update, but then I realized I'd basically be quoting the entire update. :allears:

I have no such problems. "Whatever you are, you don't look like one" was probably the best line in the game so far.

Aumanor
Nov 9, 2012
Uh... So it only just stuck me now, but it seems like we've got yet another factor that makes pople more likely to look out just for themselves and screw everybody else over if only it helps them escape. Just after I thought that since they haven't seen anyone dead yet, they might be more likely to cooperate. But nope, apparently we just can't have nice things.

Aumanor
Nov 9, 2012

Bitch!

Fedule posted:



My my, looks like you're not so fond of me anymore.

Bitch!!

Fedule posted:



Um... I want to go with Option C.
Quark chose "ally" in the first round and I was with K in the first round.


Then that's what we're doing.



And now we don't even get to dodge her in this round?
BIIIIIIIIIIIIIIITCH!!!:argh:

gently caress this poo poo, I'm voting betray even if she takes every single other player hostage.

Aumanor
Nov 9, 2012

Hobgoblin2099 posted:

Haha, you think that's bad?

Let's flash back to what happened when Alice was the one who got betrayed.


So, yeah, this path is pretty much the "Alice is a horrible jerk" path.

Oh great, so she's also a hypocrite? You know, if she wasn't in the same game as loving Dio, right now she'd probably be the character I hate most.

Stabbey_the_Clown posted:

We don't get a choice this time? Interesting. I note that because there's no choice here, we won't get the option to betray Phi.
We do, however, get an option to betray Alice, which, for me at least, will suffice for now.

Aumanor
Nov 9, 2012
:stare:
...A least we now know that at least 3 people aren't robots, I guess...

Aumanor fucked around with this message at 23:53 on Jan 6, 2014

Aumanor
Nov 9, 2012
Right when i was sure we're only getting a boring repeat, there goes something new :suspense:

E: Also, if I recall correctly, we found the Axelavir in the laboratory on our previous playthrough, right? This could imply that either Clover or K are lying about not having found the medicine. Or maybe that Quark found it and didn't tell anyone? Or that it simply isn't in the laboratory on this path for no adequately explored reason.

Come to think of it, did any of the teams go through the lab on our first trip through?

Aumanor fucked around with this message at 15:39 on Jan 8, 2014

Aumanor
Nov 9, 2012
Hmmmm... I was so looking forward to voting Betray against Alice but now that she's unconscious it just wouldn't feel right. Plus, it would definitly sour our relations with Luna, not to mention add to the inevitable shitstorm that's gonna ensue following this game. So... voting Ally I guess, and postponing Alice's comeuppance until we redo the first vote on this path.

Aumanor
Nov 9, 2012

ApplesandOranges posted:

I'm guessing people would think, 'Well he's on 1 BP and Alice is safe anyway, it's understandable.'

If Alice was on the death knell, sure, but otherwise Allying when you're one Betray away from dying and your opponent can afford a hit isn't exactly smart without taking moralities into account.

Ignoring everything else, it shows other people that we're likely to Ally, thus giving them incentive to Ally with us in return.

Aumanor
Nov 9, 2012
Hahahahahaha, this loving game. Somehow, somehow, I completely didn't see it coming. I'm laughing too hard to even be mad at the frozen egyptian exhibitionist.

Well played Alice.

P.S. So how about a new voting policy, guys? My proposition: Alice gets no points EVER. Whenever possible we either pair up with her and betray her, or pair her up with Dio.

Aumanor
Nov 9, 2012
Operation: gently caress Alice: phase one. Le's go o he first AB poll in his route and Betray. And then pair her up with Dio if possible.

Aumanor
Nov 9, 2012

Fedule posted:





An enemy?


Yes. A common foe!
Like the person who set the bombs, for instance...


Is it just me, or did that sound worryingly similar to something Zero could have said? Please don't be Zero, Luna...:ohdear:

Aumanor
Nov 9, 2012
Your story is pretty interesting and all, Alice, but it still doesn't explain WHY THE gently caress YOU ARE WEARING WHATEVER YOU'RE WEARING. Nor why you were somehow wearing even less at the end of 999.

BTW, nice attempt to make us feel bad about the stripped, game. Too bad it didn't work. As far as I'm concerned, operation "gently caress Alice" is still if full swing.

Also, Sigma confirmed to have Radical-6 in Luna's path, seeing that his symptoms match what Alice said pretty much word-for-word. Though it's really strange that he somehow recovered. You think someone might have injected him with the axelavir in the time when he wasn't responding?

Aumanor
Nov 9, 2012
Oh god-loving-drat you, game. :argh: Even though I've seen it (another's person vote changing completely arbitrarily based on our choice) coming, this is still complete and utter bullshit. :sigh:, I think my enjoyement of the plot has just dropped considerably. I really hoped you'd turn out to be better, game.

Despite Alice choosing to Ally I still don't feel bad for the decision :colbert:. This is still a net gain of four points for the group total over the alternative, making this AB game tie the first one we did for the best result. Congrats on the correct choice, fellow goons :toot:.

Aumanor
Nov 9, 2012
Okay, so it seems that diffrent people access different alternate realities at different times. This route is shaping up to be a marvelous clusterfuck :allears:.

Aumanor
Nov 9, 2012

Color Printer posted:

......how is this confirmed, exactly? :psyduck:

EDIT: Actually the only one that really gets me is Quark and maybe Tenmyouji. Clover we already know, Sigma is probably doing that right now, and Phi showed signs of that earlier. But I'm mainly asking about Quark and Tenmyouji. How?

I wouldn't say confirmed, but I think Quark and Dio's vote might point to kid's ability to access the morphogenetic field. In the two previous paths we've seen them vote betray and accuse each other. Here they vote Ally, and the way Dio acts makes it pretty clear that it wasn't his intention. My theory is that Quark gets a premonition that Dio's going to be a dick, and votes before the douchebag can do anything.

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Aumanor
Nov 9, 2012
Alice: a study in hypocrisy. You know what? The sob story does even less for me now. Onwards with loving the stripper up!

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

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