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 Of all the things that have become popular in American sports, the NFL Annual Player Selection Meeting, or what we call the NFL Draft, is one of the strangest. There is no competition or cheerleaders or really much in the way of excitement or entertainment, but for dorks like me and you, the draft is can’t miss TV. I’m still not entirely sure why this is, but I do love the draft and so do you. So, welcome to the 2014 NFL draft thread! Here’s some answers to a few easy questions: What is the schedule of draft-related things? 6 Jan: CFB season ends ~15 Jan: Deadline to declare for the draft 2 Feb: NFL season ends 19-25 Feb: NFL Scouting Combine Late Feb: coin flips to finalize draft order (if necessary) ~15 Mar-~15 Apr: Pro Days (I think) 8-10 May: Draft (Note: this is later than most years) July: Supplemental Draft How is the draft order determined? Aside from the obvious inverse standings and playoff success, strength of schedule, division tiebreakers, conference tiebreakers, and then coinflips are used (in that order) to determine the order. Where is (player from my college) ranked? Well, you can look at my incorrect rankings below or you can consult any one of a number of sites. Here are some: http://espn.go.com/nfl/draft ESPN’s coverage of the draft has gotten very good over the last few years. They have two pretty smart experts (Mel Kiper and Todd McShay) who post regular updates to their first round types, plus they have Scouts Incs scouting reports up on just about every draftable player. These are decent, but can get dated and are wrong sometimes. Most of this stuff requires “insider”, so if you want to read anything just ask me as I am an “insider”. http://www.nfl.com/draft/2013 The NFL’s site is mediocre, but it is readable and they have lots of film clips which are nice. I think Mike Mayock is their top analyst, he’s one of the smarter commentators in football. http://walterfootball.com/ Walterfootball is sometimes hilariously wrong, but they do spend a lot of time doing this and their lists/mocks are pretty comprehensive, though not always…correct. Worth reading as they update their stuff more regularly than most. http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft This is the former nfldraftscout.com, which has long been my favorite site. It isn’t exactly user friendly or modern or readable, but it is a great source for news on prospects and some pretty solid scouting. Rob Rang is their senior blogger and his stuff is not terrible, usually. One big thing to remember is that these are all pretty amateurish efforts, to include my own. NFL teams are very secretive about their scouting, so often they develop some very different opinions about players. You’ll also find that as the draft season goes on that more and more really stupid opinions about things will start cropping up across the internet, ranging from racist to just plain wrong to offensively dumb. The links I’ve posted are generally speaking the less irritating ones, at least to me. That said, take everything with a grain of salt, and even better, watch the players for yourself! Mel Kiper told Al Davis to draft Jamarcus Russell and I’m still pissed about it. Why can’t these guys get it right? Drafting/scouting is a very, very imprecise thing. There are so many variables that go into how a player looks on the field and in the combine; no one can really account for all of them. That said, over the last several years I think that scouting, both inside and outside the NFL, has gotten WAY better. It wasn’t that long ago that David Carr, Joey Harrington, Mike Williams (the fat one), and Ryan Sims were 4 of the top 6 picks in a draft. Ok, I’m ready to cross the line into full-scale draft nerdism. How do I scout like an amateur? It is really, really easy and adds a whole different dynamic to watching college football games. The way I do it is pretty simple: note who the NFL possibilities are in a game, pick a player to watch, and watch him and only him for at least a quarter or so. In my case, I have a laptop that I type little bullet point notes on each player as I’m watching, but you don’t have to go that far if you don’t want to. Experienced football fans know a lot more than they think they do about how a player looks while playing: you can tell how fast a guy is, how strong or quick he is, how technically savvy he is pretty easily. Youtube is a great resource as well; other draft nerds make some really nice game clips of players that you can watch. Where can I see transactions and whatnot that affect the draft? Wiki, where else?. Seriously though, it is about as up to date as anything. What do terms like “generational”, “elite”, etc mean exactly? These are generally terms that draft guys use to describe players who are better than your “average” top 5 caliber pick. They aren’t standardized obviously, but this is how I use them. “Generational” means that a player is a once-a-decade kind of guy, or even something more. Recent examples are Calvin Johnson and Andrew Luck. “Elite” means that he’s a two or three a decade kind of guy at his position. Recent examples are Trent Richardson, Ndamukong Suh, Patrick Peterson, Mario Williams, or Joe Thomas. Right now I would say that Jadeveon Clowney is on the cusp of being a generational guy, and that Teddy Bridgewater can be considered "elite". That's it from this draft class. All right, onto this year’s draft! Outside of the quarterback, offensive tackle, and linebacker positions, this is looking like a relatively weak draft year to me. It looks like there are two (possibly three) top end guys, then a big mess in the rest of the top 15, then essentially 2nd round talents after that. It is a GREAT year to draft a quarterback or an offensive tackle, a TERRIBLE year to take a DL or CB (early on). There also doesn't really seem to be as much depth in this draft as years past, but that always seems to change a bit as the season goes on. As of October 23, here's my top 10: 1. Teddy Bridgewater 2. Jadeveon Clowney 3. Marcus Mariota 4. Anthony Barr 5. Jake Matthews 6. Louis Nix III 7. Stephon Tuitt 8. CJ Mosely 9. Taylor Lewan 10. Marquise Lee
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Player Evaluations These are my compiled notes on this year’s players. These are mine entirely, so if you want to you can use them wherever you want. Except where noted I’ve seen all of these players play at least once, a couple of times in most cases, many times in lots of cases. That said, this list isn’t really comprehensive yet; I only wrote things for guys who I’ m thinking have a shot at the 3rd round or higher at this point, plus a sentence or two for some other guys to watch at each position. I really value the input that I get from the posters here as you all are a pretty smart and well-informed bunch. If you think I got something wrong or that I’ve overlooked a player that I should have included please say so. As we go along the season I’ll ask you guys to write out what you think your team needs are and some other drafting trends that your teams have. You’ll note that this year I’ve included a “prospect comparison”. This is a guy from a previous draft who I think compares well to the guy I’m talking about. I actually spent quite a while on these, and I think it is a pretty useful illustrative tool. Note, I’m NOT saying that these guys’ pro careers will turn out like the former prospects named (ie, Brett Hundley is NOT the next Joey Harrington in that he will go to the Lions and suck), just that they have very similar traits and abilities as viewed before they set foot on an NFL field. Quarterbacks This quarterback class is looking like it could turn into an all-time great one. You’ve got a variety of styles, a lot of top-end talent and a lot of depth. I can see 4 to 5 winding up with 1st round grades, and at least that many going in the first. There’s still some volatility, especially at the top, but all in all this looks like it has a chance to be a historically deep group. Teddy Bridgewater, Louisville, 1st Adequate size and athleticism for the position. Pocket poise is extremely impressive. Generally excellent decision making; seems to make smart reads before and during the play. Arm strength is adequate but not exceptional; throwing motion is quick and efficient, accuracy on short and medium routes is excellent but deep balls can be erratic. Name is exceptional, reminds one of a member of parliament. Pocket mobility is just average, but feel for pressure and ability to step up and make throws is outstanding. High end QB prospect; good bet as the #1 overall pick and has a chance to be the #1 overall prospect. Prospect comparison: Sam Bradford Marcus Mariota, Oregon, 1st Lanky frame, upper-tier athleticism. Arm strength is above average, accuracy is about average and inconsistent all over the field. Outstanding pocket mobility, running ability, and ability to step up against the rush. Throwing motion is a little elongated but not too bad; should get better with good coaching. Runs read-option offense as well as it can be run in college football. Prospect comparison: Colin Kaepernick with a better throwing motion Brett Hundley, UCLA, 1st-2nd Very nice combination of size and speed. Big time arm strength with compact throwing motion, but is a bit of a sidearmer. Accuracy is very good all over the field, shows good touch on shorter throws. Sometimes has trouble with pressure and will make bad decisions from time to time. Speed/mobility are both very good, can create plays from nothing and can run with the ball effectively. Prospect comparison: Joey Harrington Tajh Boyd, Clemson, 1st-2nd Elite athlete but height is well below average. Outstanding elusiveness and mobility in pocket; capable open field runner as well. Big arm, throws well on the move. Accuracy can be exceptional but is inconsistent. Doesn’t read the play well and bails on the pocket too quickly; however, steps up well and isn’t bothered by pressure much. Some concerns about conditioning. Prospect comparison: Drew Brees Johnny Manziel, A&M, 1st-2nd High end athlete but is very undersized for the position. Ability to create and/or sustain plays is exceptional and almost unprecedented. Throwing motion is compact and efficient but footwork is offensively poor; leads to inconsistency in velocity and accuracy. Arm strength is average but velocity is inconsistent. Reads the play well and makes smart decisions but isn’t asked to do much pre-snap. Running ability is very good but size/speed may limit his ability to run in the NFL. Behavior in general will be a major point of discussion. Prospect comparison: some combination of Tebow, Vick, and Roethlisberger AJ McCarron, Alabama, 2nd Very experienced player, smart, protects football and runs offense very efficiently. Footwork and mechanics are generally consistent and very good. Arm strength is below average but accuracy is consistently very good. Lot of big-game experience. Decent athlete, good pocket mobility and awareness, can run with the ball when required. Low ceiling, but polished and low risk. Prospect comparison: Chad Pennington Stephen Morris, Miami, 2nd-3rd Slightly undersized but has a very good arm and above average speed. Quick and efficient throwing motion, good footwork lead to above average accuracy and good consistency. Doesn’t read the play particularly well and is prone to making errors. Reacts to pressure and doesn’t always hang in the pocket. Running ability is above average but may not translate to the NFL well. Prospect comparison: Kevin Kolb Aaron Murray, Georgia, 3rd Very undersized but has a big time arm. Throwing motion and footwork are generally excellent. Accuracy on deep and medium routes can be exceptional but is inconsistent; has lots of trouble with touch throws. Can scramble well but isn’t fast enough or strong enough to be a dual threat; also lacks strength to get out of arm tackles. Decision making can be poor, especially risk taking. Experienced against tough competition. Prospect comparison: Brodie Croyle Logan Thomas, Virginia Tech, 3rd Massive physical talent who has done nothing but get worse the last two years. Last preseason I had him penciled in as a 1st round possibility but at this point he may end up playing himself out of the draft entirely. Huge frame, good mobility, great strength. Good arm strength but mechanics and footwork are still very raw. Decision making is consistently an issue. Hasn’t improved since a great sophomore year; big questions about development. Prospect comparison: Josh Freeman David Fales, San Jose State, 3rd Outstanding production against limited competition; showed excellent accuracy and decision making. Arm is pretty impressive but isn’t high end; pocket mobility is good but isn’t a running threat. Very good poise in the pocket. Athleticism is limited but gets a lot out of what he has. Prospect comparison: Josh McCown Derek Carr, Fresno State, 3rd Productive small school guy; adequate height but is slender and will need to get bigger. Strong arm, but mechanics are inconsistent. Can be extremely accurate but mechanics lead to inconsistency. Seems very smart; reads plays well and makes good decisions at the line. Has a strong reputation as teammate and leader. Has to get bigger and stronger. Prospect comparison: Mike Kafka Braxton Miller, Ohio State Dual threat guy, elite athlete, huge arm, accuracy and decision making are terrible. Zach Mettenberger, LSU Huge giant, massive arm, not a smart man. Still, has been great this year, could end up being a riser. Bryn Renner, North Carolina Very good athlete, accurate, smart player, experienced. Arm strength is limited. Running Backs This class continues the recent trend of pretty serious dilution in talent at the position. Still, there are several strong options for most offensive schemes available; most RBs now are capable receivers and blockers, and there are several guys who enjoyed extremely productive college careers. I’m guessing at least one or two become regular starters, but we may not see one taken in the first. De’Anthony Thomas, Oregon, 1st-2nd Might be the fastest player in college football; will likely be one of the quickest and fastest players ever to enter the draft. Vision and agility are exceptional. Capable receiver and quality runner; can even run inside effectively. Big question is size; he’s very small for the position and will likely never be an every down back. Very appealing as a hybrid HB/WR in the mold of Sproles, McCluster, or Austin. Prospect comparison: Tavon Austin Lache Seastrunk, Baylor, 2nd Nice combination of size and speed; agility is excellent for his size. Very productive but tends to run outside and avoids the tough yards. Not much experience in the passing game but seems like a decent pass blocker. Name is very good but not elite. Prospect comparison: Ben Tate Ka’Deem Carey, Arizona, 2nd Crazy productivity, outstanding agility and vision. Acceleration through the hole is consistently excellent. Very capable receiver, good catching range and decent route runner. First name is notably excellent. Isn’t particularly big; will need to add bulk and won’t be a power runner. Significant off-field concerns. Prospect comparison: Clinton Portis Bishop Sankey, Washington, 2nd-3rd Another ridiculously productive back. Slightly undersized but can grind it out between the tackles or run outside with equal skill. Capable receiver out of the backfield as well. Want to see more bulk/strength to be an every down back; speed/agility isn’t top tier but is good enough. Elite name. Rising fast this season. Prospect comparison: Tatum Bell Charles Sims, West Virginia, 3rd Average all round back; shows good power and vision inside and reasonable speed/agility. Main strength is in the passing game; good hands, comfortable running after the catch but blocking needs work. Prospect comparison: Tashard Choice Dri Archer, Kent State, 3rd Tiny guy with outstanding agility and acceleration. Equally dangerous as receiver and runner. Lines up as WR regularly, is productive as a slot guy. Finds holes inside; no power but can slip through the line well. Was a huge part of his offense last year but has missed time this year. Prospect comparison: Dexter McCluster Damian Williams, Oklahoma, 3rd Middling athlete for the position but has a well rounded skill set. Good agility for his size and can run with some power inside. Production this year has been disappointing. Prospect comparison: Mike Goodson Silas Redd, USC Experienced, good athlete, mediocre football player Carlos Hyde, OSU Powerful and productive guy, limited speed and agility but could be a solid riser if season continues well. Some off field issues Ladarius Perkins, Mississippi State Capable and quick smaller back, having a rough season so far this year. Wide Receivers This WR is very different from the past few years. It is very top heavy (two elite prospects and then…), significantly smaller than past groups, and really lacking in diversity across schemes. Some guys might make offseason pushes but there isn’t a ton to look forward to in the later rounds like there has been in years previous. Sammy Watkins, Syracuse, 1st Elite speed, quickness, and acceleration. Has agility and footspeed to break away from defenders or win in a straight line. Tremendous body control and very good overall ball skills. Capable of working across the middle of the field as well. Route running is a bit raw; relies too much on athleticism. Capable returner and runner as well. Smaller than other recent elite WR prospects. Some off field concerns. Productivity this season vast improvement on last year. Prospect comparison: Lee Evans Marqise Lee, USC, 1st Incredibly productive player; virtually uncoverable at the college level. Route running is as good as you’ll see; quickness/agility combine very well with technical ability. Ball skills are generally excellent; soft hands, good catching range, good in the air but somewhat limited by size. Good but not elite top speed, acceleration is excellent. Productivity down this year, knee injury might be an issue. Prospect comparison: Torry Holt Mike Evans, A&M, 1st-2nd Biggest receiver in the draft, having a great year. Tremendous ball skills, great catching range, jumping, and strength to go up and get the ball. Hands can be great but is a bit inconsistent. Tremendous blocker. Not particularly agile or fast, doesn’t get consistent separation but is adept at protecting his hands and making contested catches. Prospect comparison: Mike Williams Jordan Matthews, Vanderbilt, 2nd Good size/speed combination; not a speed threat but is fairly agile and has very good ball skills. Hands can be inconsistent but has great body control. Solid blocker downfield. Very good at finding openings in zone coverage. Prospect comparison: James Hardy Brandon Coleman, Rutgers, 2nd-3rd Big and strong WR, very good ball skills and catching range but inconsistent hands. Shows pretty good deep speed and is tough on 1 on 1 balls. Pretty solid route runner, good at finding holes in the zone but doesn’t have the elite quickness to reliably separate from good man coverage. Prospect comparison: Patrick Turner Odell Beckham Jr, LSU, 3rd Undersized and not terribly fast, but is very skilled at route running and does a good job of separating from man coverage on shorter routes. Hands are good, but lacks the size and strength to dominate defenders. Pretty solid slot guy, reliable, but a low ceiling. Extremely good year so far, very productive. Prospect comparison: Jordan Shipley Donte Moncrief, Mississippi, 3rd Very nice blend of size, speed, and agility. Excellent deep threat, can run past defenders and win 1 on 1 balls down the field. Capable route runner with good agility and good fundamentals. Nice catching range and very nice body control. Effort level can be inconsistent; hands can be excellent but will drop some easy passes. Prospect comparison: Leonard Hankerson Devante Parker, Louisville, 3rd Good combination of speed and agility, at his best on deep routes and running after the catch. Ball skills are only average; has great body control but drops balls regularly and isn’t great at beating defenders to 50/50 balls. Very good with the ball in his hands, very tough to stop on deep routes. Not a great route runner despite agility. Prospect comparison: Damian Williams Kasen Williams, Washington, 3rd Decent size, really outstanding in the air, good hands and good catching range. Route running and separation ability are mediocre, seems to usually be contested on the catch but has good hands/strength to shield defenders. Pretty solid deep threat, straight line speed is good. Some off field concerns. Prospect comparison: Mohamed Sanu Robert Herron, Wyoming Very productive little guy Mike Davis, Texas Inconsistent deep threat, asswipe Malcolm Mitchell, Georgia Solid receiver and returner, good runner, limited athletically with some injury issues Jerry Rice Jr, UNLV Surely he is good Tight Ends ASJ and Ebron are both high end prospects that could easily go in the first, but after that this isn’t a particularly deep or talented class. We’re seeing TEs get bigger and faster though, and the expected move towards more receiving at the expense of blocking hasn’t really happened. Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Washington, 1st Huge frame coupled with elite athleticism and well rounded TE skill set. Really exceptional ball skills, tremendous hands and catching range, very adept at shielding the ball from defenders. Separation skills are also very good, can make quick cuts to lose defenders and is fantastic at finding openings in zone coverage. Elite blocker, very powerful, size and strength are not far behind typical OL. Off field concerns and inconsistent effort are only major questions. Prospect comparison: Heath Miller Eric Ebron, North Carolina, 1st-2nd Extremely productive, very capable receiver. Excellent overall hands and catching range, very good vertically. Speed and agility are above average but separation skills need work. Good speed on downfield routes, capable runner with the ball. Isn’t big enough to be a dominant blocker but is capable technically and is very good in space. Prospect comparison: Ben Watson Colt Lyerla, Oregon, 2nd-3rd Elite athlete, good frame size, not very productive during college. Very good speed, capable runner (runs out of the backfield as well). Not particularly polished as a receiver or blocker, but upside is tremendous. Prospect comparison: Lance Kendricks Jame Amaro, Texas Tech, 3rd Big, fast, productive guy. Highly recruited, very good hands, very good change of direction and separation ability. Very good after the catch. Not used much as a blocker, fairly one dimensional but size and athleticism suggest that upside could be there. Prospect comparison: Chase Coffman CJ Fiedorowicz, Iowa, 3rd Huge guy, more blocker than receiver. Capable of making contested catches, but speed/agility won’t make him much of a downfield threat. Size and strength are good as is blocking technique, capable in-line blocker. Prospect comparison: Brad Cottam Offensive Tackles Elite group of OTs, comparable to last year in talent and depth. There’s a fit for every scheme and every need here. I wouldn’t put the top end at the level of last year, but the overall talent is outstanding. There are also some serious physical freaks in the mix, guys who could seriously change the way OTs look in the NFL if they have some success. Jake Matthews, A&M, 1st Adequate size and good strength for the position. Athleticism in general is a touch below elite but footwork and agility are fantastic. Very strong, great punch and great hands in pass protection. Quick enough to get to the second level as a run blocker; isn’t a road grader but hits hard and can move his man out side to side very well. Very heady player, very nasty. Isn’t quite at the athletic level of a Thomas or Fisher, but has the potential to be a top shelf LT in the NFL. Prospect comparison: Jake Long Cyrus Koundjio, Alabama, 1st One of the best run blocking OTs I’ve ever seen. Strength, speed and agility are the best in the draft; moves incredibly well for his size, very light on his feet. Technique in pass blocking is still pretty raw, very powerful but doesn’t always use his hands as well as he could. Incredibly nasty player, especially in run blocking, actively seeks out people to hit even if he doesn’t need to. Prototypical run blocking OT with some upside to be an elite pass blocker as well. Prospect comparison: Branden Albert Taylor Lewan, Michigan, 1st Long and lean frame, very strong already but has the space to get even bigger. Athleticism and footwork are above average, but hands and strength are excellent. Technique is a bit raw. Can get beat underneath by speed rushers outside, might be a little too tall. Tremendous run blocker, can lock up a guy to hold the edge as well as anyone. Ability to get downfield is good but not great. Also a nasty player, sometimes too much so. Looks like a RT starter with LT potential. Prospect comparison: Nate Solder Antonio Richardson, Tennessee, 1st Notably big. Extremely long frame, carries a ton of muscle and is enormously strong. Footwork and technique are average, but athleticism is very good, room for improvement. Outstanding run blocker, almost always wins one on one battles and is particularly good at setting the edge. Best in-line blocker in the draft, but doesn’t get to the second level particularly well. Prospect comparison: Jeff Otah David Yankey, Stanford, 1st-2nd Good sized run blocker, has played both OT and OG in college and did very well at each. Particularly good at lead blocking; has the feet and athleticism to get out in front of runners and is a very good technical blocker in space. Moved inside to guard for his senior season, as OLG does a TON of pulling. Pass protection seems decent; feet are good, but doesn’t have a ton of experience holding the edge against elite pass rushers. Face kind of makes you want to give him a hug. Prospect comparison: James Carpenter Cameron Erving, Florida State, 1st-2nd Elite athlete who has had some serious injury issues. Very good technically despite lack of experience. Big time speed and agility for his size, elite blocker in the open field, very capable edge blocker as well. Lack of experience and injury history are a problem but potential is immense. Prospect comparison: Roger Saffold Zach Martin, Notre Dame, 2nd Heady, experienced, very good technically and very quick. Slightly undersized for OT in the NFL. Very smart player in both run and pass blocking. Great feet in pass protection but can get overwhelmed by long or strong pass rushers. Good interior blocker. May project as a guard or OC in the NFL. Prospect comparison: Barrett Jones Cyril Richardson, Baylor, 2nd Another elite run blocker, may end up at guard in the NFL but I think he’ll get a look at tackle to start. Strength and in-line blocking are elite, has excellent quickness as well. Doesn’t have the footwork or the technical ability to play as a LT, but RT is a possibility, especially in a run-heavy offense. Still has some room to improve, good athleticism as well. Tremendous season so far. Prospect comparison: Cordy Glenn James Hurst, North Carolina, 2nd Long, slender pass protector. Very good footwork and technique in pass protection. Strength is only average, doesn’t set the point particularly well but can move well and get out in front of running backs. Looks like a solid developmental LT prospect for a zone scheme. Prospect comparison: Joe Staley Seantrel Henderson, Miami, 2nd-3rd Massive human being, very talented, but has had big injury problems and off-field issues. Work in pass blocking is generally solid; great strength, good lateral mobility, but footwork is below average and inconsistent. Run blocking can be dominant but technique is very poor. Has been very inconsistent this season but could have a huge combine. Prospect comparison: Jared Gaither Jack Mewhort, Ohio State, 3rd Experienced and versatile; limited athletically but decent technically. Strength is only average but technique helps to compensate. Has played all along the line, may look to move as an in-line guard in the NFL. Some minor off-field issues. Prospect comparison: John Moffitt Wesley Johnson, Vanderbilt Great athlete, undersized Morgan Moses, Virginia Huge, strong, slow Ja’Wuan James, Tennessee Experienced, low ceiling RT prospect Offensive Guards/Centers After a couple of years that featured all-world interior prospects, we have an extremely underwhelming class. Some of the OTs may get drafted relatively early and moved inside, otherwise it’d be a bit of a surprise if any OGs go before the second. The center class is the weakest I can remember. Gabe Jackson, Mississippi State, 2nd-3rd Ideal build for a guard, very strong, very good agility, looks good in zone blocking roles. Solid but unspectacular in pass protection, has some trouble picking up fast blitzing linebackers. Isn’t a real road-grader, doesn’t play mean enough. Looks like a decent prospect for a zone-blocking scheme but upside is limited. Prospect comparison: Clint Boling Chris Watt, Notre Dame, 3rd May be slightly undersized, not a dominant blocker but very heady and moves very well north-south. Isn’t a dominant in-line blocker but plays smart and moves very well to the second level. May have issues with physique and limited athleticism but is a smart player. Prospect comparison: Rodney Hudson Spencer Long, Nebraska, 3rd Good size, excellent all around run blocker. Lead blocker for most running plays, generally excellent technique and great power inside. Doesn’t have the mobility or athleticism to move much or get to the second level, but can pull and find defenders very well. Very smart, good awareness. Good choice for a power run scheme. Prospect comparison: Kelechi Osemele Travis Swanson, Arkansas, 3rd Good size/speed combination, good general awareness, very good blitz pickup. Athleticism and strength are limited; has a lot of trouble with big, strong interior rushers. Isn’t a dominant run blocker but uses good technique and can open holes. Decent fit for a pass-heavy offense; good quarterback on the line. Prospect comparison: Ben Jones Bryan Stork, FSU, 3rd Excellent overall run blocker, good size and speed combination. Probably has the feet to play in a zone scheme. Experienced across the interior, could play either guard position as well as center. Limited upside. Prospect comparison: Antoine Caldwell Dakota Dozier, Furman Need I say more Chief Kekuewa, Bowling Green CHIEF F.N. Lutz, Indiana State Almost certainly owns an advertising firm and/or law practice bewbies fucked around with this message at 03:23 on Oct 24, 2013 |
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Defensive End Clowney is a thing, but after that this class is a bit underwhelming compared to years passed. Not a lot of elite pass rushers but plenty of 3-4 and RDE guys, I think this is a product of CFB’s trending towards 3-4 defenses more and more. Good year to take a role playing guy in the middle rounds. Jadeveon Clowney, South Carolina, 1st Generational talent as an edge defender. No real holes in his game; quickness, explosiveness, and technique in pass rush are as good as we’ve ever seen in CFB. Natural run defender; can anchor against offensive lineman and can shed blocks like a quality middle linebacker. Range and tackling ability are elite even by MLB standards. Athleticism and size make him a fit in nearly any role in any front 7 scheme; best use will likely be as an edge rusher on the right end. Questions have arisen about his conditioning and a possible serious long-term foot issue, will both be things to watch. Prospect comparison: Julius Peppers Stephon Tuitt, Notre Dame, 1st Best looking 3-4 defensive end we’ve seen in a while. Massive frame, already huge, room to get bigger. Speed and agility are very good for his size. Elite run defender, particularly in 2-gap role; can take on double teams and win. Tremendous motor. Above average pass rusher, relies mainly on strength and good hand technique to beat defenders inside. Best fit is as a 3-4 DE, but could work as a 2-gapper in a 4-3 as well. Prospect comparison: Muhammad Wilkerson Dominique Easley, Florida, 1st Compact guy, elite run defender, high motor pass rusher. Very good hands and good strength but quickness isn’t top end. Good anchor against the run, tough to move, very good at shedding blockers but misses too many tackles. Has played all along the defensive front and might end up looking best as a 1 gap DT instead of a DE. Prospect comparison: Adrian Clayborn Trent Murphy, Stanford, 1st-2nd Giant frame, productive, experienced, and versatile. Has lined up in every spot in a 3-4 defense, think we’ve landed on him as a LDE. Can be dominant physically, very strong, fast, and quick. Awareness seems to be below average, tends to just go straight for the quarterback. Tremendous physical specimen, should test well. Prospect comparison: Mathias Kiwanuka Aaron Lynch, South Florida, 1st-2nd Really outstanding talent, missed a year after transferring. Good frame size, very nice quickness off the snap and very good range against the run. Holds the edge very well and sheds blockers effectively. Pass rush is mainly speed. Very versatile. Some attitude questions. May fit best as a LDE in a 4-3 but can probably play as an OLB as well. Prospect comparison: Tamba Hali Scott Crichton, Oregon State, 2nd Slightly undersized for most DE roles, but very strong and very hard working. Very quick and very powerful, can mix up pass rush moves well and can beat lineman to the edge effectively. Shows good hands, very good tackler, but range is just average. Can anchor well against double teams. Looks like a 4-3 LDE or a 3-4 SLB to me, probably too small to be a 3-4 DE. Prospect comparison: Lamarr Woodley Jackson Jeffcoat, Texas, 2nd One dimensional pass rusher, great quickness and speed around the edge. Lacks size and strength to anchor against the run but has pretty good range. Tremendous edge rushing presence but isn’t as disruptive as he should be. Has had some significant injury issues. Looks like a pure 3-4 rush OLB or situational 4-3 pass rusher. Prospect comparison: Bruce Irvin Ed Stinson, Alabama, 2nd-3rd Big tough run defender. High motor guy, takes on double teams well and can anchor against any blocking scheme. Very good hands. Range is pretty limited, not a pass rusher at all. Experience playing all positions in a 3-4 DL. Best fit is as a 3-4 DE. Prospect comparison: Jerel Worthy Kareem Martin, North Carolina, 2nd-3rd Huge, very nice combination of size and quickness. Very tough run defender, gets off blocks well and is a disruptive guy. Pass rush is only average, good first step but doesn’t have much speed to the outside. Pretty much a pure 4-3 LDE type. Prospect comparison: Frank Alexander Taylor Hart, Oregon, 3rd Experienced, hard working 3-4 prospect. Good size for the position, good frame, will probably get bigger. Tough run defender, can play two gaps and has decent range for his size. Pass rush is limited to bull rush, but has good hands. 3-4 DE or LDE prospect, may even look to move inside in a 4-3. Prospect comparison: Sam Montgomery Kony Ealy, Missouri, 3rd Very good athlete for the position, good all around player. Good quickness and good range in run defense. General awareness and football smarts are below average. Technique isn’t great in all respects, relies too much on athleticism. Has played all along the defensive line and can fit in most schemes in a variety of roles. Prospect comparison: Justin Tuck Morgan Breslin, USC, 3rd Extremely productive edge rusher. Quickness and speed on the pass rush are both elite. Big question is his size; frame is probably maxed out, is undersized for a down lineman position and probably not athletic enough to start as a 3-4 OLB. Looks like a situational edge rusher with some upside. Prospect comparison: Dontay Moch Chaz Sutton, South Carolina, 3rd Slightly undersized guy, the “other” guy. Isn’t a tremendous pass rusher but is a good athlete and a hard worker. Good run defender, sheds blocks and pursues well but isn’t an anchor kind of guy. Looks best a 4-3 LDE but will have to get a bit bigger to hold the edge in the NFL. Prospect comparison: Bruce Davis Jeoffrey Pagan, Alabama See Stinson, Ed James Gayle, Virginia Tech Another undersized run defender Owamagbe Odighizuwa What Chris Smith, Arkansas Very productive pass rusher, having a nice season so far Ben Gardner, Stanford Huge 3-4 guy Defensive Tackles Fairly deep and versatile class. Lots of options; even a handful of legit NT prospects to go along with more traditional one-gap guys. Very athletic group as a whole, smaller than in past years, again, I think due to the trending of CFB towards passing and pass rushing. Louis Nix III, Notre Dame, 1st Best two gap interior lineman we’ve seen in quite a while. Outstanding combination of size, strength, and quickness. Best interior run defender in college football, can anchor or disrupt equally well. Impossible to move out of the middle. Is a decent interior pass rusher as well, can penetrate gaps or push in the pocket. Great motor but endurance is only average. Top quality NT prospect. Prospect comparison: Vince Wilfork Anthony Johnson, LSU, 1st-2nd Great size/speed combination. Extremely quick off the line. Very strong in run support, more of a disruptor than an anchor. Pass rush technique is raw but potential is high. Great motor but doesn’t play a high percentage of snaps. Looks like a 4-3 single gap guy or possibly a 3-4 DE. Prospect comparison: Fletcher Cox Timmy Jernigan, Florida State, 1st-2nd Slightly undersized for the 2 gap role but looks great as a single gapper. Very disruptive against the run and the pass. Tremendous strength and range for the position in run defense. Pass rush is very raw but strength and speed indicate he could get a lot better. Incredible motor. Ideal 4-3 single gapper. Prospect comparison: Sheldon Richardson Will Sutton, Arizona State, 1st-2nd Undersized interior lineman, absolutely tremendous speed and quickness. Better pass rusher than run defender, can’t anchor well versus double teams but can beat interior linemen with speed consistently. Great motor, relentless pass rusher. Some off-field concerns. Prospect comparison: Ziggy Hood Ra’shede Hageman, Minnesota, 1st-2nd Huge frame, well rounded. Fantastic athlete, good combination of strength and size. Very good hands, especially in pass rush. Speed to ball carrier is very good. Motor/effort can be inconsistent, some off field concerns. Prospect comparison: Michael Brockers Dan McCullers, Tennessee, 2nd Biggest player in college football, will likely be one of if not the biggest NFL draftees ever. Book is as you’d expect, extremely difficult to move, great bull rush, minimal range, mediocre quickness, endurance and fitness issues. Athleticism at his size is his greatest asset, potential is there. Prospect comparison: John Jenkins Ego Ferguson, LSU, 2nd Tough interior run defender. Very good in two gap role, can locate ballcarrier through blocks and get free to make play. Doesn’t have the best quickness but is good at shedding blocks. High effort guy most plays but isn’t nasty enough inside. Top quality name. Nice frame for the interior of the line. Prospect comparison: Bennie Logan Aaron Donald, Pitt, 2nd-3rd Grossly undersized, but plays big, great athlete and all around defender. Quickness is outstanding and is strong enough to survive the interior. Doesn’t anchor well at all but can get off blocks and control a gap fairly well. High end interior pass rusher, very disruptive inside, good range and mobility. Extremely high motor. Not sure where he fits in size-wise to an NFL defense, maybe as a 4-3 UT, maybe as a 3-4 one-gap DE, maybe as a situational DT. Prospect comparison: Mike Daniels Deandre Coleman, Cal, 3rd Big man, one way run defender. Very strong with very good hands. Pass rush ability is minimal but can push people around sometimes. Tough and experienced, good motor but seems to wear out quickly. Looks like a single gap run stopper in a 4-3. Prospect comparison: Paul Solali Daquan Jones, Penn State, 3rd Big guy, solid all around player but doesn’t excel at anything. Doesn’t anchor well against the run but can be disruptive. Solid interior pass rusher but won’t push anyone around despite his size. Frame suggests he can get bigger and stronger, some potential to improve. Looks like a 4-3 UT to me. Prospect comparison: Quinn Pitcock Beau Allen, Wisconsin Large slow man Caraun Reid, Princeton Very talented interior pass rusher George Uko, USC Underclassman having a great year, could be a riser Mister Cobble, Kentucky Probably won’t get drafted but all time great name Outside Linebacker Very solid group, but rather light on the 3-4 “tweeners” that have traditionally dominated the high end of the draft in past years. Great year to draft a linebacker for a 4-3 defense. Anthony Barr, UCLA, 1st Elite 4-3 OLB prospect. Speed, quickness, and range are elite. Good tackler, very strong, hits hard, but can be inconsistent. Extremely rare combination of pass rush ability and pass coverage ability; can match up well with TEs or RBs in coverage and can take on OTs on the rush. Very new to OLB position, only one year playing there. Will slide in as a first day starter for most 4-3 or 3-4 teams. Prospect comparison: Derrick Johnson CJ Mosley, Alabama, 1st Versatile, very talented, very productive. Speed is outstanding for the position, outstanding range. Reliable but not nasty tackler. Best coverage LB in the draft, outstanding read in zone coverage, very capable in man. Solid pass rusher as well. Some pretty serious injury issues. Will look best as a WLB in a 4-3 or as an WILB in a 3-4. Prospect comparison: Sean Weatherspoon Khalil Mack, Buffalo, 1st-2nd Buffalo? Hmm. Elite combination of size and speed. Elite athlete for the position. Well rounded player; can take on blockers, get sideline to sideline, and pass cover with equal ability. Has played every position in the front 7. Allegedly has some “personality issues”, whatever. Big concern is competition quality. Looks like a 4-3 WLB. Prospect comparison: Thomas Howard Kyle Van Noy, BYU, 1st-2nd Extremely productive player, consistently makes big plays. Reads the play very well in both run and pass defense. Doesn’t have elite speed or range but takes smart angles. Capable pass rusher, decent but not elite cover guy. Some off field concerns and injury concerns. Prospect comparison: Paul Posluszny Ryan Shazier, OSU, 1st-2nd Slightly undersized, elite run defender and very good in pass coverage. Range is elite but has a tough time shedding blocks. Size can be an issue in tackling but is fundamentally sound. Very good in both man and zone coverage, not much of a pass rusher though. Looks like an ideal WLB or WILB. Prospect comparison: Lavonte David Christian Jones, FSU, 2nd-3rd Versatile, hard working guy, somewhat limited in his reading the game. Has decent range against the run, good at shedding blocks. Adequate speed in coverage but doesn’t read routes well at all and can get lost. Very versatile, plays all along the front 7 and does well in a variety of roles. Will likely be an 4-3 SLB or maybe a SILB. Prospect comparison: Martez Wilson Adrian Hubbard, Alabama, 3rd Gigantic OLB prospect, very nice size/speed combination but is somewhat limited athletically. Doesn’t read the play particularly well, does best when in simple scheme where he can hold an edge or take on a blocker. Versatile in pass rush, is a useful edge rusher and can take on OTs if required. Coverage ability is below average. Size and strength will be appealing. Looks like a pure SLB. Prospect comparison: Shawn Crable Lamin Barrow, LSU Undersized speedy guy Trent Murphy, Stanford: Big slow giant guy who hits hard Dion Bailey, USC Grossly undersized but elite speed, may be interesting as a LB/S hybrid on passing downs Ishaq Williams, Notre Dame BIG Andrew Wilson, Mizzou Generic really productive guy Middle Linebacker Continues the trend of mediocre MLB groups; some of the OLBs listed above could be a fit as ILBs depending on scheme. AJ Johnson, Tennesee, 1st-2nd Very talented 3-down defender. Good takeon skills and very good tackler. Big hitter. Very capable in coverage, particularly in man with TEs. Gets by more with smarts and hard work than athletic ability, upside might be limited in the NFL. 4-3 MLB or a thumper Prospect comparison: Curtis Lofton Yawin Smallwood, Conn, 2nd-3rd Big guy, very productive. Limited athletically, pretty average in most respects but is versatile and hard working. Range against run is good; doesn’t take on blockers well but is a solid tackler. Best in zone coverage. Probably projects best as a SILB or a 2 down MLB. Prospect comparison: Nico Johnson Max Bullough, Michigan State,2nd- 3rd Big, strong, very productive run stopper. Plays extremely smart, reads plays very well. Shows great range against the run. Decent range in pass coverage, particularly good in zone coverage. Very limited in man coverage though. Tackling is violent but inconsistent, has trouble against quick guys in space. Potential cover-2 MLB. Prospect comparison: Courtney Upshaw Trey DePriest, Alabama, 3rd Great tackler, solid run defender, very limited in pass coverage. Pure inside thumper. Take on skills are good, works hard against guards and lead blockers inside. Athleticism and speed are limited. Great fit as a SILB in a 4-3. Prospect comparison: Nico Johnson, again Shayne Skov, Stanford, 3rd Pure thumper, very productive player in the middle of the field. Outstanding tackler. Range is decent but not elite, particularly good at taking on blockers in space. Coverage ability is below average, lacks the footspeed and quickness to stay reliably man on man but is smart in zone coverage. Looks like a SILB to me, probably not mobile enough to play as a full time MLB. Prospect comparison: James Anderson Andrew Jackson, Western Kentucky Wins duels, relocates natives Steele Devitto, BC How can you not draft Steele Divitto Preston Brown. Louisville Seriously looks like Levon Kirkland Cornerback The last several cornerback classes have been pretty exceptional both at the top end and in depth; this group is relatively underwhelming. The group as a whole is quite a bit smaller than recent years, and there isn’t a clear elite prospect as there has been in all recent drafts. Still, there are certainly some potential first-day starters here and there is a lot of potential. Ifo Ekpre-Olomu, Oregon, 1st-2nd Slightly below ideal size, not tremendously fast, but ball skills and coverage ability are elite. Very good athlete, very quick feet but can have trouble sticking with fast receivers on go routes. Enthusiastic run defender but size holds him back. Smart player, hard working. Looks best as a man coverage guy in a scheme that will reliably give him safety help. Prospect comparison: Janoris Jenkins Loucheiz Purifoy, Florida, 1st-2nd Elite size/speed combination for the position. Really fantastic all around athletic ability. Has the quick feet to stick with any receiver in man coverage. Size and strength are excellent for the position, can be a monster when lining up in press coverage. Ball skills are relatively poor; hands are straight up bad and has a tough time with 50/50 balls against bigger receivers. Best pure cover corner in the draft. Prospect comparison: Aqib Talib but with worse hands Marcus Robertson, Florida, 1st-2nd Average size and above average speed for the position. Feet are extremely quick; very good reading the play, moves to the ball exceptionally well. At his best in zone defense; solid ball skills, good jumper, good hands in 50/50 balls. Decent in run support. Injury history might be a concern. Looks best as a corner for a zone-heavy scheme. Prospect comparison: Marcus Gilchrist Jason Verrett, TCU, 2nd Undersized for the position, not exceptionally fast or quick but plays a very smart game. Can stick with anyone in man coverage but will have a tough time challenging bigger receivers. Very good break on the ball, reads the play very well and can close quickly enough to beat the ball to the receiver. Very productive player; tries hard in run defense but is too small to be dominant. May wind up as a slot corner but man cover skills will get him a look on the outside. Prospect comparison: Brandon Flowers Bradley Roby, Ohio State, 2nd Likely the fastest corner in the draft, has adequate size for the position, very quick feet and fluid hips. Reads plays well and gets great breaks on the ball. Struggles a bit on 50/50 balls. Very heady in zone coverage, makes smart reads. Very good tackler but doesn’t deal well with blocking. Good all around corner, will fit most schemes. Some off field concerns. Prospect comparison: Chris Houston Aaron Colvin, Oklahoma, 2nd-3rd Good size but will need to get stronger for the NFL. Best feature is ball skills, very good at batting away balls and contesting catches. Comfortable taking on larger and stronger receivers. Very good run defender, tackles well and can shed WR blocks effectively. Speed and agility are just average; has trouble staying with fast WRs in single coverage. Tends to look into the backfield too often. Some injury issues. Pure cover 2 guy. Prospect comparison: Blidi Wreh-Wilson Kyle Fuller, Virginia Tech, 3rd Adequate size for the position; speed is decent. Shows very good play recognition and is at his best in zone coverage; lacks the speed and quickenss to be a reliable man cover guy. Best run defending CB in the class; reliable, enthusiastic tackler, good range and good mobility against the run. Doesn’t look like he’ll project as a reliable man cover guy on the outside, slot guy for now. Prospect comparison: Javier Arenas Darqueze Dennard, Michigan State, 3rd Adequate size but will have to bulk up a bit for the NFL. Play recognition is consistently outstanding, plays very smart and gets very early breaks on the ball. Coverage skills are very good, equally adept in press coverage or off the line. Very good agility and overall quickness. Very good ball skills for his size. Big question mark is injury history. Could wind up being a reliable man cover guy. Prospect comparison: Curtis Brown Justin Gilbert, Oklahoma State, 3rd Big, experienced, versatile corner. Has lined up against elite QBs and WRs his entire career and done pretty well. Consistently good in man coverage, is often left alone on a WR and is comfortable in this role. Ball skills are very good, maybe the best in the class. Tries hard in run support but isn’t a great tackler. Big concern is his relative lack of speed/athleticism, suggests his ceiling may be relatively low. Prospect comparison: Chris Culliver Damian Swann, Georgia, 3rd Slightly undersized, not super fast, but plays smart and hard. At his best in zone coverage, reads breaks extremely well and gets a good jump on the ball. Man coverage skills are above average but ball skills are relatively weak, has a tough time with 50/50 balls. Tries hard in run support but is undersized. Looks like a good slot corner. Prospect comparison: Ladarius Webb Antone Exum, Virginia Tech Hybrid S/CB, big guy, good tackler EJ Gaines, Mizzou Talented all around guy, undersized Bennett Jackson, Notre Dame Big, talented guy, not great in man coverage Carrington Byndom, Texas Good size, experienced, productive, probably too slow to start in the NFL Safety Another underwhelming group, may not see anyone go in the first unless someone really impresses. Better overall coverage group than years past though. Haha Clinton-Dix, Alabama, 1st-2nd Ballhawk safety. Play recognition is consistently elite, can read the quarterback and get breaks on the ball very well. Good ball skills, very good range in the middle of the field. Man coverage skills are above average, can keep up with most RBs/TEs and can challenge many WRs in the open field. Not a huge hitter but tackles well and takes smart angles in run support. Pure FS prospect for a team that wants a center-fielder. Some off field issues this year. Prospect comparison: Ed Reed Lamarcus Joyner, Florida State, 2nd-3rd Undersized SS prospect. Has been playing as a corner this year, doesn’t look great in man coverage, too slow and small. Like him more at safety, he moves very well and reads plays, very strong in run support. Big hitter, reliable tackler despite his size. Works very hard, knows defense well and makes good decisions. Size is a big limiting factor, may wind up as a slot corner but I think he’ll get a look at SS. Prospect comparison: Bob Sanders Ty Zimmerman, KSU, 3rd Big, fast, productive guy. Relies more on recognition skills than speed/athleticism. Doesn’t have quick feet, has a tough time against quicker receivers and TEs. Works hard in run support but tends to get wiped out by blocks. Looks like a zone SS type. Prospect comparison: Brandon Taylor Ed Reynolds, Stanford, 3rd Extremely big and extremely productive player. Nice overall skill set and nice nose for the ball. Relatively limited athletically, won’t be a reliable man cover guy in the NFL but can lay a big hit and make big plays from time to time. Strong in run support, good tackler. Prospect comparison: Bernard Pollard Dez Southward, Wisconsin Big run thumper CJ Barnett, Ohio State Mediocre in all respects CB Bryant, Ohio State Teeny Boo-Boo Gates The world needs this man
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Oct 24, 2013 03:20
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DOOP posted:Why is there no Allen Robinson for the WR category? t Most draft folk think that he will, I don't really know why though. I'd put him as a fringe 1st rounder at this point if he continues to tear things up as he has so far this year.
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Oct 24, 2013 03:28
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Declan MacManus posted:Great OP, except Sammy Watkins plays for Clemson, not Syracuse You know, I even wrote that up while watching the Clemson game last weekend. Derp
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Oct 24, 2013 12:32
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Just saw that Mcshay now has Mariota ahead of Bridgewater at the #2 spot. Interesting...
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Oct 24, 2013 14:51
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pangstrom posted:This is something from a couple years ago I thought was interesting. It's an analysis of how much a pick is worth (e.g., for trading picks). If anyone has anything newer along these lines I'd like to see it. I don't watch the draft but I love to look at past drafts and scouting reports with the benefit of hindsight. http://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress.com/2011/11/30/how-to-value-nfl-draft-picks/ This is amazing. Thanks for posting it, everyone should take a look at it.
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Oct 24, 2013 16:25
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Brannock posted:I've always been skeptical of those players who are like "well he doesn't really have a real position, but holy poo poo he sure is an athlete." When was the last prospect like that to actually pan out as a NFL player? Brad Smith and Hines Ward are probably the best examples. Can probably say the same thing about Aaron Hernandez or Clay Matthews.
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Oct 24, 2013 18:06
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Fussy Dutchman posted:Isn't Anthony Barr more of a 34 OLB/DE type? I can't believe how good he is for UCLA this year, especially with how close he was to coming to ND. But of course, he wanted to play RB, not LB. He certainly could play either OLB position in a 3-4, I personally don't see him as an optimal down lineman in any scheme but he could probably do it anyway. I think his best role is probably something similar to how Denver uses Von Miller, that is, as a kind of "rover" pass rusher/general terror in a 4-3. I feel like his coverage ability and range would be a bit wasted in a 3-4.
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Oct 26, 2013 17:45
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mcmagic posted:QB's without NFL tools are successful at the pro level all the time. See Alex Smith. He's just the latest one. uh...
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Oct 28, 2013 23:18
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Ouroboros posted:Regarding that year's draft; I only recently started following the NFL, but how on earth did Alex Smith end up going 1st overall that year? From everything I've seen NFL scouts seem to hugely favour QBs with the prototypical physical skills (big arm, quick release etc) that give them a high ceiling. How did someone like Smith who is regarded as a relatively weak armed game manager go above Aaron Rodgers, who has one of the best arms and best throwing mechanics of anyone in the league? I know Rodgers got to sit for a few years and Smith had a procession of offensive coordinators, but surely Rodgers had to be considered as someone with a higher ceiling? Believe it or not Smith looked like he had a plus arm. I think his arm strength is a little underestimated now (every so often he will really gun it), but at the time it looked at least above average. http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/draft05/columns/story?columnist=pasquarelli_len&id=2015296 http://sports.yahoo.com/news/pro-day-report-alex-smith-042300667--nfl.html
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Oct 29, 2013 00:22
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Eifert Posting posted:I remember Gabbert being a pretty clear case of talking up some dude for no clear reason. Not at all. Gabbert was pretty universally regarded as a top 15 prospect, and rightly so. He had all the physical tools, was very productive in college, seemed diligent and hard working, etc etc. There were no real red flags. Here's what I wrote on him, it was pretty accurate: Blaine Gabbert, Missouri, 1st Huge and very strong, coupled with decent mobility. Probably has the best overall arm strength in the class coupled with solid mechanics and a good release. Can be exceptionally accurate, especially on NFL-style routes, but accuracy comes and goes. Seems to have trouble on touch passes, will often overthrow receivers on short passes. Regarded as an outstanding teammate, smart, and a hard worker. Normal questions about transitioning to a pro-style offense, but he reads defenses well and has very good vision. I personally thought he was a better prospect than Cam right up until the combine. The draft writers' consensus had him at 11: http://walterfootball.com/draft2011bigboard.php Turns out he was just one of those guys for whom the mental side of the game never really caught up to the physical ability.
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Oct 31, 2013 14:26
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Quest For Glory II posted:All you needed to see to know Gabbert was going to be terrible in the NFL was his game against Nebraska. Holy poo poo was he bad in that game and his performance in the NFL is an exact doppleganger of that game, repeated 16 times over, every year. The complete lack of pocket awareness, the seeing phantom defenders, the bad decisions, all of it. Um For your proof that you "knew" Gabbert was going to fail in the NFL, you have chosen a game: 1) that was one of the more dominant single game performances by one of the best college defensive players of all time. 2) that was played in one of the heaviest rainstorms I've ever seen a football game played in. (it was comparable to Chiefs/Seahawks in 1998 or that "punt stuck in the ground" game) 3) where Gabbert suffered a pretty nasty high ankle sprain in the 1st quarter. Good analysis, dude. I realize that internet is a bastion of blowhards when it comes to the draft but this kind of ex post facto stuff really irritates me. Fortunately, we're on a forum that has archives! I'd love to see your comments back in 2009 wherein you predict Gabbert's NFL future based off of this game you've chosen to analyze.
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Nov 1, 2013 14:12
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Eifert Posting posted:Then it seemed like all the sudden around March Gabbert popped up as a prospect and all the sudden everybody was felating him. Not really. He was #5 in Kiper's first mock: http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft2011/insider/news/story?page=KiperMockDraft1.0 He was #3 in McShay's from the same day: http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft2011/insider/news/story?id=6036153 Both were from January.
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Nov 1, 2013 14:24
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Eifert Posting posted:Those posts were from January 6th. I can keep looking if you'd like but general perception in the thread was that he was just being talked up by draft analysts. I don't doubt that was your perception. What I'm telling you is that, regardless of that perception, he was pretty highly thought of by every draft writer I'm aware of, as well as by at least one (and I would guess most) NFL teams. And, I'll, add, rightly so. He was a very impressive prospect. The reason he started showing up at the top of mock drafts in January is because that's when he announced he was declaring for the draft. NFL Draft Scout, for example, had him on top of their 2012 rankings from the beginning of his sophomore season.
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Nov 1, 2013 14:38
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Speaking of Crist, I LOVE going and clicking back through the old rivals boards. They have stuff back to 2002. It is absolutely amazing how few of these highly recruited guys ever even become stars in the NCAA, let alone the NFL. It is pretty neat seeing NFL stars' names kind of sprinkled in here and there though. Of course, sometimes they get it right: http://sports.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/recruiting/player-Adrian-Peterson-14848
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Nov 1, 2013 23:29
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chilihead posted:You know in hindsight the easiest bust to predict was JaMarcus Russell. How did any GM think he was going to be an NFL worthy Qb, much less the number 1 pick! He was one of the most impressive physical specimens we've ever seen in the draft. He had arguably the strongest arm of any player I've ever seen. He was solid mechanically and had a great throwing motion. He was coming off of one of the better seasons (from an NFL scouting perspective) by a college QB in recent memory; was extremely productive against one of the nation's toughest schedules. In other words, there was a LOT to like about Jamarcus. Should the Raiders have taken him #1? You had a generational WR prospect, and in my opinion two elite guys (Joe Thomas and AD, and AD had some relatively significant red flags) as the other real possibilities. I don't think they would have been wrong to take any of those 4 guys. Sucks for them that the other three will likely wind up in Canton I guess.
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Nov 2, 2013 22:02
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The talk about about jmarcus got me wondering so I went back and looked at some youtubes. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8vCNAW-PbBk Pass at ~:50 is a 40 yard bomb that he drops into a barrel between two defenders and the goal line. I think there is exactly one NFL QB who could make that throw reliably and it is Drew Brees and he's going to the Hall of Fame. Run at 1:45 is pretty impressive. The announcer calls him ala Cunningham, not really, but he still runs past most of the ND defense. Frozen rope at 2:00 into coverage is another throw that maybe a half dozen NFL QBs can make. Deep ball at 3:24, even the announcers know it is coming. Holy poo poo. Again into double coverage. He's literally the only player I've ever seen who could make the throw he does at 6:00. Goddamn dude was incredible. Also in related news poor Brady Quinn. This game. 
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Nov 5, 2013 00:33
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vaginal culture posted:He barely looks like a first rounder, and this is based on all season. We're talking about the same guy who has yet to throw an interception in almost 300 attempts and is averaging 8 yards per carry right? Also I'm starting to become a convert to the position that there isn't much differentiation between LT and RT anymore. It seems like NFL teams line their best pass rusher up against the weakest OT more often now than they do against the blind side.
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Nov 13, 2013 00:11
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vaginal culture posted:Not a very strong arm either. Ok, so we're definitely not talking about the same player. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AhIO6uhM9Wc&t=137s. See 2:10 and 4:50 for examples of the guy I'm talking about who by any reasonable measure has an NFL caliber arm. edit - actually the first was at 2:10 bewbies fucked around with this message at 00:33 on Nov 13, 2013 |
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Nov 13, 2013 00:22
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Declan MacManus posted:Michael Crabtree was a superprospect like Fitz or Megatron although some of his stats were buoyed by Mike Leach's air raid Not even close. He was a mid first guy at absolute best.
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Nov 20, 2013 19:53
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commy gun posted:Even tempered bewbies flipped his poo poo at that pick too. This piqued my curiosity so I went back and looked at my hard hitting commentary: bewbies posted:I don't like the Chiefs pick at all. I'm glad we were able to trade down, but I did not think Baldwin was a 1st round prospect. He's very similar to Bowe and I'm not sure exactly what the plan is for him in the offense, unless our plan now is just to throw every ball high and hope for the best. Would have very much preferred a guy like Justin Houston or Brooks Reed at that point. I....really liked Justin Houston. So I guess I can't be THAT upset.... Quest For Glory II posted:It's nearly the end of the season so who's ready for scout over-hype?? I mean, I totally get the pre-draft hyperbole (and actually kind of love it truth be told) but somone really just picked probably the best college corner and maybe the best overall corner prospect of all time as a comparison. Alright. In honor of this comparison I feel we should all go look at the 1989 draft and salute our monitors. bewbies fucked around with this message at 02:14 on Nov 24, 2013 |
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Nov 24, 2013 02:02
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Aniki posted:Which QB prospects for the upcoming draft are considered good at progressing through their reads (e.g. not zoning in one on receiver presnap and instead being able to hit their 3rd or 4th options if they are open)? I'm not sure what to think of the QBs after Bridgewater. Mariotta scares me and I haven't seen enough of Hundley to have much of an opinion on him. I know it is a deep QB class, so at least there are options, but with Frazier likely on the way out at the end of the season, it's hard to predict what scheme they will be running. This is a pretty tough thing to judge obviously but I'd say Bridgewater, McCarron, and Carr could list this as a strength. Mariota too possibly; he does the zone read as well as it has ever been done and that sort of awareness could easily end up transferring to a more traditional offense.
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Nov 25, 2013 20:24
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The Texans defense is like how most 3-4 defenses were back in the late 80s/early 90s, you have your LDE playing a single gap technique on the RT and then the ROLB playing the wing on the other side. That's why most of the really good defenses from that era had both an elite DE and an elite OLB (Smith/Bennett, Smith/Thomas, Marshall/Taylor, etc). If the Texans wanted to they could easily play Clowney in the OLB role (he'd be fine) on the opposite side of Watt. That'd be a pretty scary tandem.
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Nov 27, 2013 01:19
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So I was poking through wiki and found someone did this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2001_Miami_Hurricanes_football_team#NFL_Draft_selections 5 top 10 selections 17 first round selections 14 guys who were at or near a Pro Bowl level at least one season 3 guys with at least an outside chance at the Hall (Reed, Johnson, Wilfork) Is there another team ever that's had anywhere near that much NFL talent?
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Nov 30, 2013 18:22
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Azhais posted:Bridgewater has always been classified in that next tier down, with the RG3s of the world. He's definitely not on that level either, at least in my opinion. Right now I'd value him something like Bradford or Ryan.
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Dec 7, 2013 00:54
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I think that Jake Long is a very good comparison to Matthews and obviously he went #1. It wouldn't be out of the question, especially if Clowney's foot thing turns out to be significant. Also Manziel to me looks like the kind of guy who will not do well at all in the combine. He's not big, his straight line speed isn't great and he's probably not going to look great in passing drills. I could be wrong but I think his draft stock is going to be based on the games more than anything.
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Dec 13, 2013 03:25
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Love that Bridgewater put up maybe his best college game in his last one, and on a relatively big stage. The discussion of Clowney vs Teddy is going to be that much more entertaining.
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Dec 29, 2013 19:36
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Declan MacManus posted:Brady Quinn wasn't a reach, just a bust. The Browns got a good deal, considering they were projected to take him third overall Yeah. He was a quality prospect. I REALLY wanted the Chefs to trade up to nab him but the Browns slid in right ahead of us and we wound up with Bowe. Quinn wouldn't have been a huge reach at 3 and should have probably gone to the Dolphins all else equal
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Dec 31, 2013 00:41
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swickles posted:Clowney might actually be more disruptive in the pro's than in college. In college you can get away with putting that much attention and playcalling around a single guy like Clowney. That won't fly in the NFL. Although he probably won't be breaking the double and triple teams as frequently as he does now. In the NFL the worst OT he's going to face in any given game is likely better than any he's faced at any point in his college career.
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Jan 1, 2014 21:03
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I have to say I was not impressed with Bortles last night. His accuracy and touch were...consistently bad. I don't know how much of that was the field conditions, but I don't remember a single throw he made that really stood out as excellent.
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Jan 2, 2014 21:08
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DeimosRising posted:Does this describe any particularly successful NFL receivers? I can't think of any (besides a certain number of tight ends). Fitzgerald is probably the closest star caliber player.
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Jan 3, 2014 05:36
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he's never really felt much pressure. always sucks to watch a kid lose hundreds of thousands of dollars in real time.
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Jan 3, 2014 05:49
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AAA DOLFAN posted:Fitzgerald is not a slouch. Not at all. Even he maintained he's a low 4.5 runner. He isn't slow compared to me but he is certainly in the bottom third of NFL WRs. If anything he is a great example of why pure speed at the position isn't all that critical.
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Jan 3, 2014 05:56
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AAA DOLFAN posted:I've seen way too many passes caught by him that are taken to the house with great speed. I just flat out disagree. I'd say fitz makes more contested catches than any other top tier wide out in the league. The strongest part of his game is his body control and his strength in the air, not his ability to burn dudes with pace. Also I think Moss is probably in the top 10 fastest guys in the history of the league. His rookie season was just something else.
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Jan 3, 2014 06:08
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Intruder posted:Was Randy Moss the most physically complete WR in NFL history? Calvin Johnson and it isn't really very close.
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Jan 3, 2014 06:26
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Doltos posted:There's also Tuitt and Ealy, although Ealy is dropping a bit due to production this year. He had a big game against OSU though and he's a huge person. What? Ealy was probably the best DE in college football this year.
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Jan 4, 2014 19:35
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ye olde drafte threade has gone some strange places in the last 12 hours
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Jan 5, 2014 20:54
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I think I'd be on board with the Chefs trading into the 20s to take Manziel. He would be a great fit for that offense. He almost certainly won't be there but still.
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Jan 8, 2014 21:26
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LiquidFriend posted:They've got the 23rd pick, so they wouldn't even have to trade up. This hadn't even occurred to me. welp We sign Maclin and Kelce turns out to be anything decent we have the makings of a semi-viable offense.
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Jan 8, 2014 21:57
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