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By mod request it's back everyone thank Deadpool for unearthing this poo poo from the archives. --------------------- Welcome to the TVIV Ratings and Discussion thread. But first, a primer: What are ratings? You've seen other people in TVIV bitch about the ratings for their super funny and subversive show that the rest of America Does Not Get (looking at you, Community thread). But what, exactly, are they? Simply put, "ratings" is a general term used to describe the Nielsen Ratings, which are a set of ratings collected by the Nielsen Company (natch) in an effort to quantify audience, and more importantly, demographic size during your TV shows. A shows There are approximately 115.9 television sets in America at this very moment. What the Nielsen Ratings- hereafter refered to as the "Nielsens" or just "ratings"- determine is what percentage of America is watching a given show- hence, the point system. Each "point" in the Nielsens reflects roughly one percent of the total number of television sets in America that are watching the show- so in other words, a show with a 1.0 rating has roughly 1.16 million people who watched it on the night in which that show aired. Ratings usually come in two sets of numbers, however: ratings/share. Ratings reflect total number of viewers for the night and share reflects what percentage of the tv sets that were actively watching that episode of that TV show. Let's give an example to make it clearer. Let's say an episode of Revolution airs and gets a...let's say 3.0/9 ratings/share. That means, that on Monday night from 10:01 pm to 11:00 pm, there were approximately 3.48 million tv sets tuned to Revolution. That doesn't mean there were 3.48 million people watching the show, however; people could've left their cable box on, they could've fallen asleep after watching The Voice...it doesn't matter. All that does matter is that there was 3.5 million, roughly, tv sets tuned to NBC during that time. A 9 share, however, means that 9 percent of the people that were actively watching tv at that time were tuned to that show. The share will always be higher than the rating, usually about 2 1/2 times as much. How are ratings determined? Ratings are determined one of two main ways: Either with Diaries or with Set Meters. Diaries are the traditional method, used since radio days: the Nielsen Company sends a household a diary (usually with a cash incentive as well) and asks the household to self-record all of their viewing and listening habits, for a seven-day period (eight if you have a DVR). Then the household sends the completed diary back to the Nielsen Company, who then aggregates the data and determines ratings. Set Meters are little devices a household installs to their television(s), which then monitors all tv watching usage on that television and broadcasts that info to a Home Unit, connected to the household's phone line. This allows an unprecedented degree of access to market researchers as to how people watch tv-on an exact minute to minute basis of when they change the channel, turn the volume up and down, and turn the television off. Further, the Nielsens now have People Meters, which allow further, more specific viewing information of how each person in a household watches TV. Now obviously, sending a diary and/or Set Meter to every household in the US is financially impossible, so instead the Nielsens uses the common statistical method of determining the actions of a huge group known as statistical sampling; they determine trends in the actions of a smaller "sample" size cross-section of America, accounting for variables such as race, age, earning power, and geographical location, then based on that sample size, can determine with good accuracy the trends of the American populace. Why are ratings important? Ratings are important because they allow the network and its local affiliates to determine what prices to set for ad buys. The more viewers you have, the higher ratings you have, and the higher ratings you have, the more you (you being the network) can charge for every 30 seconds of commercial time during your American Idols, your 2 1/2 Mens, your LOSTs, etc. However, ratings do not tell the whole story. Far more important to advertisers (and, by extension, networks) is demographics. What are demographics? Demographics, at least as far as ratings are concerned, answer the "who" part of the "Who's watching our show?" question. Demographics cover everything, from race to class to age to gender. Why is this important to advertisers? Because it's stupid for, say, Audi to buy a commercial during Spongebob Squarepants, because as it turns out, most people who watch that show are young children, who...don't buy cars. Demographics are usually listed in gender and age ranges, i.e. "Men aged 18-35" "Teenage boys aged 14-19", etc. For all networks, the "holy grail" demographic is "Adults aged 18-49". This has been determined to be where the majority of the buying power of America is located, so advertisers only really give a poo poo about this cross-section. Therefore, whenever ratings are announced, they are usually only announced as "within that demographic". So again, back to the Revolution example. Whenever NBC announces the show got, say, a 3.0 rating it is commonly accepted that what they mean is a 3.0 rating among men and women aged between 18 and 49. Everyone that falls out of that range is not significant to advertisers, so are not counted. Therefore... Number one rule of ratings discussion: "Total viewers" does not mean poo poo. "Total viewers" is a meaningless metric. When discussing ratings, the networks 99% of the time are only talking about adults aged 18-49, the advertisers are only discussing adults aged 18-49, and by extension we are only talking about adults aged 18-49. This is a common misconception that TVIV threads like to delude themselves into thinking so they can take comfort in thinking their totally-gonna-be-loving-cancelled show isn't going to be cancelled- "It gets HUGE numbers of viewers! That must mean something...right???" No. No it does not. It means loving nothing at all. Case in point: Harry's Law. This show was NBC's highest-rated show in the 2011-2012 season- their highest rated show- and they cancelled it. Because despite getting 12 million+ viewers, it was getting abysmal ratings in the demo- I think it was sub-1.0. The only people watching Harry's Law were old people, who don't drive cars, don't drink alcohol, and don't wear condoms, so advertisers didn't give a gently caress- there's only so many times you realistically can run a Metamucil ad. So, again, total viewers do not matter, and if we discuss viewership numbers ("this show had 5 million viewers", etc), assume that we're only talking specifically about adults aged 18-49. Sweeps- What are they? How are they important? Remember the whole "Diaries" thing I mentioned above- how the Nielsens send out diaries to households for them to record a week of tv-watching, and then ask for them back? Well, they don't do it year-round. The Nielsens only process the paper diaries- some 2 million of them, apparently- during the months of November, February, May, and July. In addition, local affiliate stations also set their ad rates based off the ratings for these months. These months are also known as "sweeps" periods, and are obviously the most crucial ratings periods for networks- usually you'll see the big "gimmick" episodes (Special Guest Star! Live episode! 3-D episode! Series/Season premiere mid/season finale!) during this time, to attract more viewers. It's also usually right after sweeps when networks make decisions on whether or not to cut shows that they're on the fence on, ratings-wise- usually the network will look at the sweeps ratings and make a renew/cancel decision then. How are the Nielsens flawed? In a number of ways. The Nielsens have, contrary to popular belief, actually been counting TiVo/OnDemand/DVR viewing of shows since as early as 2005, however advertisers are resistant to these measurements due to the obvious fact that if one is doing "time-shifted viewing", as it is technically called, they can simply fast-forward or skip through the commercials. Hence, the Nielsens do not cover DVR/TiVo viewings at this time. The Nielsens also do not count online viewings, for the same reason as stated above; advertisers get even less say in the online space, so at this current time every and all hulu/Network website (cbs.com, abc.com, nbc.com, etc) view is not counted. Period. The Nielsens are also not "random", because they only select a small sample of the population, and only the subset of that population that accept are included (obviously). This means the sampling is inherently skewed. In addition, ratings do not take into account outside-of-the-household viewings, such as in a bar, a college dorm room, a jail, etc. Finally, the main way the Nielsens are flawed is that their primary measurement, ratings, cannot accurately determine if a viewer is actually viewing the show or if a viewer has simply left the tv on. Now obviously, there's no way to accurately account for that (although share helps), but an inherent limitation of the Nielsens is, admittedly, that there's no way for an advertiser to tell if an average viewer is actually watching the program. However, they're the best we got, so...oh well. "Flow" "Flow" is the concept of placing two shows with alike audiences together, to increase ratings for both shows- the idea being that fans of the first show will stick around for the second, and fans of the second will tune in early to watch the first. In this way, a tv block with smooth "flow" will hopefully grab a viewer at 8 pm at night and will keep the viewer watching until 11 pm that night- so they watch 3 hours of programming and, more importantly, one hour of commercials. This is why, in case you were wondering, sitcoms are generally aired back-to-back in an hour block- the idea being that sitcoms have "flow" with other sitcoms. An old, old tv concept, with the advent of DVRs and the changing of the Millenials' attention spans to be much shorter than before- due to influences like Youtube and hulu- it's less important than it ever was but it's still a major influence on how networks set their programming. Included in the concept of "flow" is the concept of the "lead-in", wherein a network will program a major audience favorite- a "tentpole"- at the front of a block, like say The Office at 8 pm, to grab the biggest number of viewers from the start which, hopefully, stay to watch the rest of the shows in the block. A "leadout" is the same idea but in reverse- programming a show that gets large numbers so people who want to watch that show whether intentionally or not tune in early and catch the tail end of, and therefore might become interested in, the show that aired previously. Leadouts are also important because generally speaking a network loses viewers on an hour-by-hour basis as the night proceeds, so to maintain viewership networks put a strong performing, but not tentpole, show in the 10pm slot to try and keep the audience tuned in, usually an hourlong drama. Generally speaking the worst performing shows for a network are wedged in the middle of the night, between high-performing lead-ins and leadouts. Generally speaking a network wants to spread their tentpoles out amongst their week of programming- as a network you don't want just one night of all your best shows, you want to spread them out so you can hopefully build the audiences of your other shows into tentpoles as well. Another concept included in the concept of "flow" is "hammocking", the idea of placing a struggling show between two successful ones, so the increased ratings of both the lead-in and the increased ratings of the lead-out will boost the ratings of the one in the middle. It might sound stupid, but it works. Branding Now obviously the "golden" demographic for advertisers- adults aged 18-49 -is a huge one, that covers a giant swath of America. Unless you're one specific network that is a massive juggernaut in the ratings- cough cough CBS -you're realistically not going to be able to market yourself as a network that is able to appeal to all of those demographics. Hence the idea of network branding. Instead of marketing to everyone, a network instead engineers its programming to market to a specific cross-section of that demo, which they then, in theory, get huge ratings from. In addition, such a targeted demographic appeal means that advertisers can laser-focus their advertising to that specific demographic. Somewhat of an outdated concept- network branding doesn't...really jive with the tastes of the modern tv viewer, a viewer will generally watch what they watch regardless of demographic appeal- two of the big four networks have strong brand identity now, and two don't. Brand Identity and Ratings Guidelines This section will now examine each network's brand identity (if it has one), their ratings guidelines, usual place in the ratings, tentpoles and people they like to stay in business with (generally, networks have "Golden Boys" which they like to stay in business with which means they'll sometimes, but not always, renew shittily-performing shows from them just to keep them happy).  FOX Brand Identity: None, really. They sorta-kinda market to teenagers to early twenties with programming like American Idol and X-Factor, and they sorta-kinda market to adult males with programming like 24, Prison Break, and Human Target, but they have no clear brand identity. This is to their benefit, because they are now the go-to network to take a chance on the weird or outlandish concepts, especially genre shows, which no other network really supports. Sci-fi classics like Firefly, Wonderfalls, and X-Files would never even get picked up on another network, but for all their hard work, FOX still gets bitched out frequently by nerds on the internet for not "supporting" these shows to the full extent- which the nerds always seem to conveniently ignore the fact that these shows were doomed to fail ratings-wise from the start and it's really only due to FOX's brazenness and willingness to take chances and go way off-brand that got these shows on at all. They're also the only network to support animated programming with their Sunday night Animation Domination block. Ratings Guidelines: FOX is quick to pick up shows, but they're also quick to cancel them- a FOX show usually has to be a quick performer or gets canned. Anything that performs less than a 1.8 or so on average usually gets canned pretty quickly on FOX. Although, ratings have been decreasing across-the-board for networks over the years so this number might change. Usual Place in the Ratings: FOX usually gets annihilated in the fall- usually all of their new premieres flop miserably, and hard. This is mainly due to two reasons: they have no fall tentpoles, and baseball season (Especially the playoffs) fucks with their programming hardcore and they're unable to build audience bases for their new shows. The first reason is no longer true as of right now, because of the relative success of New Girl and X-Factor gives them two tentpoles to start building around. Sleepy Hollow also premiered out of nowhere, got huge ratings, and is also capturing public zeitgeist so FOX might have the next Glee on their hands. Here's hoping they don't gently caress it up. Their midseason is usually a lot better, as American Idol, their flagship show, comes back and almost single-handedly saves their season. It's also been a steady lead-in for their other premieres, so FOX will frequently hold back their most anticipated premieres until mid-season so they can take advantage of the AmIdol bump- which they did last year with "The Following". Usually fights with CBS for first in the ratings, usually loses, usually is in second. Tentpoles: American Idol, X-Factor, New Girl, Glee, Animation Domination block Golden Boys: Gordon Ramsey, Simon Cowell, Seth McFarlane  CBS Brand Identity: Everyone. Every-loving-last one of us. Who cares about marketing to one demo when you can have ALL OF THEM? That's their brand identity. Some of the whiners will complain that CBS is "only watched by old people", but that's not true- they still get massive ratings in the demo. Ratings Guidelines: CBS rarely takes chances, and therefore rarely has anything surprising happen- which means they can shows that under-perform with a savagery. Anything below 1.9? Usually cancelled, and quickly. Usual Place in the Ratings: As above, usually first- they have their programming down to a science- pretty much stuffed to the brim with either Procedural Starring a Neurotic White Guy, Procedural Where Things Explode and Bad Science is Done, Multi-Cam Sitcom EP'd by Chuck Lorre, or Reality TV Competition. Hey-don't knock it, it works. Tentpoles: Too many to list. The NCIS's. Every Chuck Lorre sitcom. Survivor. TAR. The list could go on forever. They have a lot of very, very successful shows. Golden Boys: Chuck Lorre, Jerry Bruckheimer, Mark Burnett  ABC Brand Identity: The network with the by-far strongest brand of the big four, ABC markets to women. Usually, educated, moderately wealthy, single women ages 18-34. That is their demo. That is what all of their programming revolves around, hence all of the pseudo-soap dramas and/or family-life based sitcoms- as seen by Scandal, Grey's Anatomy, Private Practice, Modern Family, Suburgatory...the list goes on. Seriously, watch an ABC show and note how many tampon, feminine beauty care, and house cleaning product commercials you see. Yeah. Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. premiered well and has stayed relatively afloat so maybe that'll change? I really doubt it, that show is already starting to bleed viewers and I don't think many will stick around. The next LOST this ain't. Ratings Guidelines: ABC generally gives shows a chance to breathe (Happy Endings, DTTBIA23), but are quick to cut obvious failures. Generally anything below 1.6 is a quick cancellation. Usual Place in the Ratings: ABC has struggled to attract male viewers, to their detriment- see also, the massive ratings failure that is Last Resort. As a result they usually duke it out with NBC for third. Tentpoles: Modern Family, Grey's Anatomy, Scandal Golden Boy: Shonda Rhimes  NBC Brand Identity: Us. The average TVIVer. Millenials, usually fairly well educated, who are into highly intellectual fare. Ratings Guidelines: NBC is in such a dismal place that they take anything that's not an utter flop out the gate as a success. Usually lets their shows, especially their comedies, find their footing before cutting them. Anything below 1.5 is usually danger zone for NBC programming, but they're in such a bad place right now they'll usually keep anything that has at least a somewhat solid audience. And it just got worse for them. NBC now is doing so poorly they lost a recent Thursday night completely- their night's averages ratings were lower than every other broadcast network's, including the CW. This has never happened before. Ever. In the history of broadcast television. Incidentally Thursday night is the most profitable night for networks being that the most people watch TV on that night. So losing to the CW on it- that's very, very significant. Also that 1.5 rating threshold is now like a 1.2 ratings threshold. It's so bad for NBC. So, so bad. Usual Place in the Ratings: Usually fourth, and a solid fourth if it wasn't for their football package. However, this fall season has been an unprecedented success for NBC, as Revolution is a legitimate hit, the fall launch of The Voice wasn't the massive flop many were predicting it would be, and Go On and New Normal are pretty solid hits! So, good on them. Edit: ahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahhahahaha Both of these shows got cancelled by the end of the 2012-2013 season. The only good premiere NBC had was The Blacklist, really, unless I'm forgetting something else but I'm almost absolutely sure I'm not. Tentpoles: The Office, Revolution, The Voice Golden Boys: Dick Wolf, Lorne Michaels Someone link me a picture of the cws logo itt I'm editing this loving op on my phone CW Brand Identity: Teenagers mostly. It's the teenager channel. Made from the merger of the WB and UPN networks, the former of which was family-branded and the latter black-skewing. They quickly jettisoned all of the respective former networks' old fare and became the teenage, specifically the teenage girl, channel with hits such as Gossip Girl and rebooted 90210. More recently they've been changing brands again, to more genre fare with shows like Supernatural, The Vampire Diaries, and Arrow, which premiered last year, performing spectacularly for the network. If this brand switch is successful this would be the second brand switch in a decade, which is extremely unusual. Ratings Guidelines: The CW kind of has no real ratings guidelines. Being co-owned by CBS and WB, both of whom are content to throw their money at the network nigh-indefinitely, the CW exists in this weird state where a single tenth of a ratings point can be the difference between a show that must be renewed and must be cancelled. Like Nikita got renewed for a third, and therefore fourth season because the CW's president really liked the show. No, seriously. That was the given reason. Generally I guess, but by no means are these ratings definitive, if a show gets over a 0.5 ratings average the show is generally considered safe. But that has so many exceptions it mine as well not even exist as a rule. Usual Place in the Ratings: Fifth. They're always fifth... For now, at least. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Standard Cable Networks Standard Cable is a whole 'nother bag of tricks, and one I don't feel confident adequately explaining- most of a cable network's renew/cancel methodologies is based off its own internal gauge of whether or not a show is successful; some networks emphasize Emmy or prestige-bait (FX, and AMC), others have a very specific niche that they never deviate from (USA and ABC Family), and still others operate to serve one and only one demographic (TLC, History Channel). It's really quite a mess and trying to predict renew/cancel methodologies for standard cable is very difficult and pretty much its own world. Premium Cable Networks This is a lot easier to predict, funnily enough. Premium Cable Networks don't have to worry about ad revenue in any way, shape, or form- they only have to worry about attaining subscribers, which means that ratings do not generally matter for premium cable. HBO and Showtime, the two biggest premium cable networks and the ones that goons will be most familiar with, market themselves to potential subscribers in different ways- HBO has been able to set itself up as the network for "prestige" programming, so the most important determinant over whether or not they'll renew or cancel or show is how many Emmy noms or how much critical acclaim the show in question receives. Showtime, on the other hand, likes to make either dramadies starring middle-aged women in difficult positions (Weeds, Big C, Nurse Jackie, United States of Tara) or "edgy" dramas that have very little changes on a season-to-season basis, so they can exploit the show for the maximum number of seasons possible- think Dexter. Probably a leftover from their CBS DNA (CBS owns Showtime). However, both enjoy tooting their own horns- HBO loves announcing how big of numbers True Blood pulled, and Showtime can't resist gloating about Homeland. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- gently caress. Okay, I'm done. Jesus loving Christ. This is the thread to discuss, formulate opinions on, and argue about which shows the networks will or will not cancel. This is not TV Couch Chat, so bring idle tv talk there. This is not "I really hate/love this show" talk, this is just to argue what the networks will do. Basically, it's a TV Industry thread. That's what this thread is about. That massive loving wall of words above me was, honestly, the cliffs-notes (yeah, I know) version of what someone needs to know to argue about TV ratings knowledgeably. TV ratings is a massively complex and deceptive field and arguing about them requires knowledge of how networks operate, their own internal renew/cancel indexes, and the jargon that comes with such a discussion- "NBC probably won't cancel this because it's on-brand" etc. RESOURCES Generally, a tv ratings discusser will use the website TVbythenumbers, which is a really good site for all TV ratings (they always have an article published the day after with preliminary ratings numbers) info you need. They also have a Renew/Cancel Index a very, very good rough estimate of how tv shows on a given network are likely to do (basically TVbythenumbers predicts the ratings average for the network and then ranks the shows based on how they perform compared to the average- 1.00 is "average for the network", and anything that or above is considered a certain renewal). A Note Finally (yes this is truly, finally finally), networks have been pushing for Live+3 ratings to be the general-use ratings standard over L+SD (Live + Same Day). See, Live + Same Day is calculated during the night it airs and then, I believe, up until 12:00 am PST. Live+3 is the Live airing plus up to 72 hours after the show airs for the first time. It's an attempt by networks to be able to quantify DVR airings, and they're pushing for it because network ratings have been down across the board. TVbythenumbers doesn't consider Live+3 ratings in their Renew/Cancel Index or Bubble Watch, but networks are definitely pushing for it so it's in my opinion a legitimate argument to use as to whether or not a show will be cancelled. NOPE gently caress YOU THIS AINT FINAL Recent Patterns That Have Emerged in the TV Ratings Landscape:
Also suck it SHUPS FOR DEATH
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Oct 24, 2013 21:40
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SHUPS 4 DETH posted:This thread is probably better served showing up after the debacle that was the month of September. How do you mean, I wasn't following ratings too closely then.
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Oct 25, 2013 01:32
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Well after the Michael J Fox Show being an expensive disaster they'll have all sorts of new comedies to launch midseason which'll inevitably fail! Like that about a boy show or whatever. Also SHUPS i think our dumb toxx clause over HE's fate was one of the most enjoyable parts of the old thread since it put a real sense of competitive drama to weekly ratings, want to go to a random  with me over Community? I'll take the hard bet of betting that yes, Community WILL be renewed for season six if you take the easier one of it not. Or we could switch if you're really confident that Community comes back and gets renewed. Same rules as before, I'll change my username to OccupyGreendale and get whatever community av of your choosing if it doesn't happen. Let's make it more interesting though- I know Deadpool has wanted to start issuing TVIV specific mod challenges so if he's down the loser has to complete a mod challenge of his choosing. Neither of us will know what it is until the toxx ends. Deal?
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Oct 25, 2013 03:17
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the posted:I'm a 30 year old male, and I consume about 99% of my television "not live." That is, via Hulu, DVR, Netflix, or ... other means. Am I a really small minority? You make it seem like Neilson doesn't give a poo poo about that kind of stuff, but most people my age that I know seem to consume media mostly without watching it live. As the boomers die off will they ever switch to caring about it? Look at it this way: The Neilsens don't measure people watching TV, they measure people watching ADS. They could give two fucks if you're watching Survivor or Revolution, except one has ads that are watched by roughly double the people aged 18-49 as the other. Hence that show's ad time is more valuable. Hence it is higher rated. Hence affiliates can charge more for local ad buys there. Hulu? Online, views aren't as valuable because there's not a full set of ads and not as many people are watching them. DVR? You're skipping the ads. Netflix? No ads. Other means? Well come on, you can figure this out.
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Oct 25, 2013 03:29
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coffeetable posted:Back in the Hannibal thread earlier this year, someone mentioned that what saved its neck was excellent ratings in the highest income brackets. Is there any way to get more detailed demographic information like that? That's all theoretical at best, Nielsen does track that info but that's a client-specific function that no network would be stupid enough to release because, one, they're paying hundreds of thousands of dollars for the privilege of knowing that information, and two, it would give the other networks leverage when counter programming. Also if Hannibal was getting amazing ratings in the highest income brackets, it probably would've gotten better ratings because the current ratings system is weighted towards high income consumers with a lot of liquid cash who'd be willing to buy the new Lexus. Yes, product placement generally doesn't work and sometimes is a massive pr fiasco so it can backfire horribly for the company in question. Most companies when pursuing product placement do some sort of co-branding/ offshoot deal like some sort of co-branded webseries/ etc and most companies are realizing product placement is used best when the content creators have control over how the product placement is implemented within the show. Also product placement is sometimes indicative that the company itself made a huge or significant ad buy for the show.
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Oct 27, 2013 15:54
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Hey SHUPS if you don't mind could you post the r/c index in the future? I don't have a PC any more so it's difficult to cut and paste links now.
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Oct 29, 2013 16:57
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SHUPS 4 DETH posted:Yeah for sure. I'll put it up on Sundays going forward and put up the current one tonight. aren't r/c indices posted on Tuesdays?
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Oct 29, 2013 20:44
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There's no way Mindy gets renewed, Gorman is a crazy person. The season three renewal is both the most difficult and the most important and anyone who thinks the lowest-rated comedy on the network gets an effective two-season renewal is insane.
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Oct 30, 2013 04:48
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Josh Lyman posted:Yes, I'm asking about the numbers, but the networks only get the numbers that Nielsen reports. Is there anyone independently verifying that there isn't some systematic bias, to say nothing of actually sketchy business? They're accredited by an independent third party source , sexual aluminum talked about it in the last thread.
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Oct 30, 2013 16:57
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Thanks for coming back sexual aluminum as always your posts are interesting and well-informed and yeah I give you carte Blanche to talk about whatever the hell you want to talk about here.
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Oct 30, 2013 21:10
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SHUPS 4 DETH posted:
Wait what?! Wasn't The Client List Lifetime's version of The Shield? I can't believe they cancelled that poo poo, I thought it was indicative of how they wanted to change their brand.
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Nov 2, 2013 03:49
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SHUPS 4 DETH posted:On the other hand, my un/av. Yeah but that kinda reinforces my point because HE essentially needed a season and a half renewal to make it to 80 iirc. SHUPS 4 DETH posted:Primarily Love-Hewitt is pregnant and wanted her character to be pregnant as well and I surmise the writers couldn't work with it on their handjob drama. This seems like such a dumb and shortsighted move for Lifetime. You don't can your brand creator early, that's a really dumb way to gently caress over your network's evolution. AMC renewed Mad Men, loving over their original scripted series TWD kind of irrevocably in the process and it was still the 100% move. Make your deals, cable channels with marquee prestige original series. Don't be stupid.
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Nov 3, 2013 06:52
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I haven't done ratings analysis in a while so let's brah out the ol' ratings sperging occupation so shups can argue with me and we can spam the thread forevvvvver. I think SHUPS is a bit bullish on Dracula's cancellation. Maybe it's because Gorman mentions Hannibal (which I, incidentally, was still right on despite it not happening the way I predicted it would) but my belief in Dracula's renewal or at least possible renewal is twofold: one, it's airing on a Friday on flow with Grimm, which had a similar initial struggle in the ratings, and two, as always: NBC CAN'T CANCEL EVERYTHING. With parks and rec almost certainly done, community likely done despite my steadfast belief that it will be renewed, just you wait and see guys, Parenthood probably done, MJF almost certainly done, Revolution at best a coin flip, and NBC's midseason premieres looking DOA, especially that about a boy show, I could totally see Dracula surviving just because they gotta air something on Friday nights. Gorman being so dour on SFN at this point is just dumb. It's beating scripted average handily and getting an additional order of episodes means it can pick up the full season still right before or even on the date of spring premiere. Or they might just push back the date of SFN's return so it coincide with the end of the season anyways. Or it could just get a month hiatus while the writer's room gets ahead of shooting and shooting gets a couple of episodes ahead of air. There's a lot of options and I don't buy the "extra episodes= death sentence" logic. Especially because Hollywood considers Rebel the next Melissa McCarthy. Don't make it a likely renewal but at least upgrade it from certain cancelation for god's sake. Likewise Mindy remaining a coin flip this far in its fall is not correct. Especially considering the fact that B99 being upgraded makes that shows cancelation more likely as Fox only has ten hours of programming a week and has already committed to 2 1/2 hours of new programming next year. It's the reverse NBC rule: FOX CAN'T RENEW EVERYTHING.
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Nov 15, 2013 06:42
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BrooklynBruiser posted:Okay come on dude. You said it would be cancelled because of X, Y, and Z. You might have been right about X, Y, and Z, but you were wrong about it being cancelled, which was your main point, so you're wrong. No, that's like saying when you play poker and you make a stupid call on someone else's all-in bet with a backdoor straight draw off the flop against their trip aces when you have only put in the big blind into the pot, which you then end up hitting the straight off the turn and river, that you made the "right" call. You still made the wrong call, it just turned out right for you. Likewise, if you go all in on trip aces off the flop with pocket aces because you're short stacked and need to buy the pot to get out of short stack position, and then some moron calls you with a backdoor straight draw off the flop, which he then hits, you didn't make the "wrong" call. It was still the right one and the right way to play the hand, it just didn't turn out well for you. In ratings analysis your reasoning is more important than your results, since much like poker it's basically a bunch of informed betting. I was still right, I just got beat on the river.
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Nov 15, 2013 17:02
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I really don't think shield doesn't get a renewal even if the ratings crater. If abc can't make shield work then they're all but admitting they can't get male viewers under any circumstance. I think just from an ego/realization that this is their by far best shot at brand diversification standpoint they renew shield for s2. NieR Occomata fucked around with this message at 07:08 on Nov 18, 2013 |
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Nov 18, 2013 07:05
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sportsgenius86 posted:you can't sell a show on the back of the Avengers and then have it be about average human secret agents. That's just asking for a revolt. I'm not saying the concept wasn't bad, although otoh Marvels is one of the best and well-executed concepts Marvel has done in years, im saying abc is way too invested in this show to not renew it.
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Nov 18, 2013 16:07
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Timby posted:Excluding the legions of animated spin-offs like The Real Ghostbusters, Beetlejuice, Men in Black, etc., I can think of Highlander: The Series, Stargate SG-1 and its spawn, La Femme Nikita, Freddy's Nightmares, Parenthood and The Young Indiana Jones Chronicles off the top of my head. And, um. Buffy.
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Nov 18, 2013 16:10
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And MASH and FNL and technically Carrie Diaries and maybe Gotham depending on how that turns out and technically rebooted bsg
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Nov 18, 2013 16:14
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Basically what we're trying to say is is TV series based on movies are extremely common and have been basically since television series were invented. What makes SHIELD unique and notable is is they've never to my knowledge done a television series based on a currently active movie series that ties directly into the movie series' canon aka is a continuation of the movies' universe and presumably has some impact on the movies moving forward. That is very, very unique and hasn't been done before to my knowledge. Also they've never done a TV series based on a currently running blockbuster movie franchise which is even more impressive.
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Nov 18, 2013 17:57
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I'm gonna J Jonah Jameson SHUPS' Peter Parker right now WHERE'S MY R/C INDEX AND GET ME THE SPIDER MAN
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Nov 19, 2013 16:14
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Mindy Project is still a coinflip? God drat it Gorman you are bad at figuring this out, man. Also just fyi the current conversation is getting dangerously close to the exact sort of conversations I made this thread to avoid and clarify. Shittalking CBS because they make "bad" or "dumb" shows is ignoring the exact point that there's a fine art in making something mass appeal that people will actually like as opposed to mass appeal that everyone hates (see also: every attempt by NBC in the past couple of years at making a mass appeal sitcom, up to and including the MJF show). And even if you HAVE made a mass appeal show that is able to capture a massive audience (for example, let's use Parks and Rec, the closest thing to a modern-day Cheers currently airing), it doesn't matter worth a goddamn if you don't promote it correctly. NBC took one of their biggest chances to be able to steal everyone else's thunder in PnR with a hilarious, optimistic, wonderful show and doomed it to fail but refusing to give it a good timeslot (always after Community except for one season where it finally aired after The Office, but only one season) and promoting it terribly. Now we have Parks and Rec doing abysmal numbers and NBC has really only itself to blame for screwing over their one big chance to rebuild their Must See TV block. Compare to CBS which frequently refreshes its garden of programming, promotes the hell out of new programming, gives them nice lead-ins and outs, and does things like do schedule triage to fix their ailing comedies that could be tentpoles and it's a no-brainer why they're number one and have the number one rated sitcom. Why? Because they're smart and they adapt. That's why they're number one. Because they're not idiots when it comes to scheduling and promotion. For every other network, even FOX, one or both of these things is not true. NieR Occomata fucked around with this message at 17:15 on Dec 4, 2013 |
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Dec 4, 2013 17:01
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In related news, Community's second episode garnered a 1.4, which is actually up from last week's 1.3 average. I was gonna for it anyways but it now has less of an effect since chances are actually decent it gets renewed, but I will now officially go on record and myself that Community will be renewed for a sixth season. If it doesn't get renewed for a sixth season I will change my name to a Community-themed name and av of SHUPS' choice and take whatever mod challenge Deadpool decides to punish me with. I gotta be honest I was fully expecting that I was gonna lose this toxx a couple of months ago.
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Jan 11, 2014 09:25
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Postal Parcel posted:Also, here's hoping the Enlisted hit above a .8. Nope!
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Jan 11, 2014 17:23
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I think pnr is fully syndicated, FXX was running a PnR marathon when the network premiered leading up to the first new episode of...The League I think?
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Jan 11, 2014 18:33
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Hey guess what this forum isn't? Cinema Discusso! Guess what this thread isn't? A Man of Steel thread! Anyways I'm most interested in Community's chances moving forward, since this season is shaping up to be the best ever. A 1.1 is fairly stable but I'm concerned NBC is gonna nuke their whole Thursday block over trying for the zillionth time to get it going again with new shows that inevitably fail.
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Feb 2, 2014 19:41
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SHUPS 4 DETH posted:It was a white-hot commodity during pilot season some years back and NBC guaranteed a full 22-ep order to get the show over the other networks. They fought hard for it and spent millions to have the show barely register a blip, and now they're contractually obligated to air the remaining eps and they're struggling with it. It is nothing short of a historic failure and maybe the biggest red mark on Bob Greenblatt's tenure at NBC. To put it into context I think this might be overall one of the costliest and most embarrassing failures in network history. I'm trying to think about it but I don't think a network has been so assured they had a hit on their hands, to the point where they not only ordered it to series but for a full season sight unseen, and have it fail so utterly. The only other examples that come to mind in network history are Terra Nova and the XFL.
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Feb 8, 2014 17:08
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FlamingLiberal posted:They seem to have managed to do well despite putting very vanilla and safe shows on all the time, for the most part. I haven't watched anything on that network since Jericho, I believe. Vanilla is an incredibly...misleading way to describe CBS' programming. It's very difficult to have one general appeal television show, much less an entire slate of it, and even though I personally do by like most of their programming it's rather...incorrect to imply they haven't earned their programming success. Also you should watch person of interest, it's in a lot of ways like Jericho in the sense of being a sci if serialized television show. It's also IMO the best network show currently airing.
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Feb 14, 2014 15:19
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FlamingLiberal posted:CBS is also primarily bringing in a much older demographic. I think the median age of their viewership is like 55. That's not sustainable, since eventually the people used to just watching network TV will die off, and the younger generations are not that interested in network or cable programming as much. No, they're not, they by far have the most viewers in the key demo, that's how they win every season. What do you guys think the other networks on gonna do to respond to Thursday night football, by the way? I predict FOX is gonna push all of their hit shows to spring where they dominate with idol anyways, ABC is gonna try to counter program with female-skewing shows under the mistaken impression that women don't watch football and fail, and NBC will give up and run their marquee, low-rated comedies over dooming new shows to fail.
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Feb 15, 2014 05:31
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Wandle Cax posted:What he's saying is CBS skews older, i.e. most of their viewers are older. Which is true. Just because most of their shows also get decent 18-49 ratings does not discount that. Just look at the ratings for Person of Interest for example, typically getting a 2.0 or under in 18-49, but 12+ million viewers. Doesn't take a genius to see that is an extremely old skewing rating, like much of CBS programming. That isn't a relevant criticism when CBS also has the by FAR best average ratings in the demo. It's also an improper conclusion; CBS skews older because there's more older viewers of television, of which CBS captures the most because it has the most popular shows. No network rationally aims for the older demographics because they're financially insignificant to advertise to.
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Feb 15, 2014 07:36
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Yeah SHUPS was right, his bet just turned out wrong. Anyone who follows ratings would know the safe bet would have been that mindy wasn't getting renewed; there's no real way to measure "how much a network wants to work with a creative" which is why these sure bet cancellations become these surprising renewals.
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Mar 8, 2014 04:48
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ToastyPotato posted:Wait so how is Community doing this year in general? It and parks and rec trade the "highest rated Thursday sitcom" spot every week. The renewal of parks means that NBC is still committing to airing Thursday night comedies and yeah, with two main cast members gone negotiations for a 13 episode sixth season are gonna be mega cheap, comparatively. Let's see if Community can pull it off.
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Mar 22, 2014 13:19
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Sakarja posted:But if NBC is seriously considering renewing Community, why are they holding off when they already renewed Parks & Rec and cancelled just about everything else? You just answered your own question, every day that passes where they don't cancel Community until the end of the tv season is a good sign. If they wanted to cancel Community they already would have canceled it. Parks does slightly, slightly better average numbers (and better numbers overall when Community is airing, to note) and more importantly is completely in-house on NBC, so they have every reason to renew it. If I were to guess they're holding off on an official announcement to make Sony sweat and offer them a better deal to keep it on the air, which Sony will probably do because Sony always does this, they really love syndication. Anyways if this doesn't happen I'm gonna buy an xbone in protest and never buy a PS4. Who's with me?!
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Mar 22, 2014 17:34
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Andrew_1985 posted:Could I ask how RuPaul's Drag Race is doing this season compared to previous years? Rupaul: renewed before season six started to air, season six premiere garnered highest ratings in logos history Suburgatory: almost guaranteed renewal, performing just under scripted average and abc has a bunch more much worse performing shows they need to cancel first
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Apr 7, 2014 15:36
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Network tv isn't dead, not even dying yet, but it's coughing up blood and refusing to go to the ER. Network TV is just gonna get worse and worse ratings wise unless a major change occurs. If and when American idol is cancelled, then that's when network tv is officially "dying"
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Apr 29, 2014 22:59
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I think we're in agreement SHUPS, American idol is gonna be cancelled I'm just saying when it does that's the beginning of the end of network tv.
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Apr 30, 2014 01:34
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Pillowpants posted:I don't really understand what you mean. How will network tv "die?" Are you talking about when USA/amc/fx etc finally have multiple shows getting TWD like ratings? A guy above made a good call, where essentially all network tv becomes syndicated and I could easily see that but in all honesty I don't know. Let's break it down by network: 1. CBS - sees the least change overall, I'm guessing a cutback in hours of scripted programming but I think the effects of eroding viewership hits CBS last, whatever it does. They also have football on Thursdays which going forward will have a major effect on ratings on Thursdays so are the most futureproof 2. ABC - completely abandons Thursdays (football), Sundays, Tuesdays. Consolidates all popular shows on Wednesday. Focuses on keeping Friday. More reality programming and they drop all pretense of attempting to appeal to the male market over their sure fire audience, upwardly mobile women 3. NBC - completely abandons Wednesdays, Thursdays, Fridays, Sundays. Focuses on keeping The Voice popular and trying to maintain whatever control they have over Mondays and Tuesdays. Cancels everything that isn't a tentpole to them and gets out of the sitcom game entirely. Focuses on proven showrunners delivering simple premise broad shows 4. FOX - cedes an extra hour to their affiliates and focuses solely on limited run programming
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Apr 30, 2014 14:54
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Not to be morbid but one has to wonder how much Cory's death artificially inflated glees numbers, especially when they cynically took advantage of it for a tribute episode Did anyone really care about glee before then? I bet the tribute episode got a lot of people tuning in to see what all the fuss was about
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Apr 30, 2014 20:30
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xeria posted:Glee premiered this season with a 2.0 in the demo (held steady from last season's finale), dropped to a 1.6 with the next episode, spiked back up to a 2.9 for the death tribute, then immediately dropped back to 1.5 and lower ever since. The two-part "100th episode(s)" had a mess of original cast members and guest stars back and still only managed a 1.0/1.1. They're at less than half the audience now that tuned in for that tribute episode. I bet that 2.9 had a genuine uptick on their average ratings for the season, everyone loves to rubberneck at a tragedy
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Apr 30, 2014 23:13
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Just a notice for everybody- May upfronts are next week, but by this Friday we should know the r/c fate of every single airing show. So stay to this thread by Friday all questions will be answered about your in the balance shows Also @deadpool by the end of next week we'll have the schedules of every single network, I know you and yoshifan usually like doing network schedules in review threads so it's something to think about duders
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May 5, 2014 14:23
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Chris McKenna possibly ironitweeting (coined it) about Community being cancelled, then immediately walking it back leads me to be unnecessarily concerned over Community's chances I mean, logically if Community was gonna be cancelled we should've heard about it already, but I'm still mega worried.
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May 8, 2014 20:14
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