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Waroduce
Aug 5, 2008

Snowdens Secret posted:

Making a new post because this is only part related:

When talking about the Russia stuff it's important not to overestimate the health and stability of Eurozone economy and politics. Growth is doodoo throught the zone and I've talked before about the disproportionate impact a negative change in energy supply could make when demand is inelastic.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/10719586/Far-Right-makes-makes-electoral-come-back-across-France.html

This article is mostly about the (terrifying) rise of Front National in France in this week's elections and how the Socialists got frapped hard, but it includes this bit:


Needless to say if you're suddenly needing to aggressively develop an expansive energy policy to counterbalance an ascendant neo-Soviet empire, the last people you want to find yourself shackled to are the Greens and the Communists.

Energy isn't something I know much about but thank you for your posts they are awesome and so are you

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Waroduce
Aug 5, 2008

iyaayas01 posted:

That sound you heard was ALCOM and 11th AF popping the world's biggest boner.

Time to dust off those OPLANs last updated in 1989!

I know your joking about this, but the brain drain after the Soviet Union collapsed was significant. Not to mention most "Soviet Experts" are probably now dead or senile. The US is also historically and remarkably terrible at understanding a countrys culture and language. Its hard for the United States to think how someone else does. During the cold war our intelligence community was tasked with a two part question. "What does Russia want, and how far will they go to get it?" We failed to answer this question in any, way, shape or form, and this is with the specter of nuclear war unifying the military and intelligence community toward a common, existential threat. We now have to answer that question again, and given our lack of forewarning of Russian troop movements and all of the implications of that , I'm not exactly reassured. I'm almost certain given our historical track record we have zero humint on this, and if the Russians have figured out a way to circumvent parts of our sigint/masint/cybint aparati (apparatuses?) due to Snowden, we're probably throwin darts in the dark, or waiting for satellite flyovers. Cause we can't deploy drones against a near-peer.

I'm pretty sure all of our analysts and policy makers are sitting around a table going:

"I don't loving know man, I have no idea, call up Joe."

"Joes dead/senile (or we gave him a pink slip and took his career out back and shot it in the early 90's)"

"Well, lets grab all the files from '88/'89 maybe we'll find something"

Waroduce fucked around with this message at 00:15 on Mar 27, 2014

Waroduce
Aug 5, 2008

Courthouse posted:

Half the old soviet block is in NATO these days. Surely at least the Baltic states has some level of humint there? Can't we ask them?

Im phone posting at work, so this is going to be quick, but speaking from a historical perspective and taking in what was just posted above me, I would be more worried about what the Russians know about us than what we know about the Russians through our ties to former Soviet satellites.

Waroduce
Aug 5, 2008

Courthouse posted:

Would you care to elaborate? I don't really have a good handle on the east-west spygame after the SU fell.

I'm not very familiar with the post-collapse spy games, but I could do a semi :effort: post about some of the games that went on between the two during the cold war, and some of the CIAs failures in the cold war.
However, basically the CIA is very good at 3things:

1. Violating its charter ie: being used to spy on american citizens under executive pressure. (Nixon lol but also Truman and jfk/bobby kennedy )

2. Showing up with a briefcase full of cash for whoever decided they hate communism this week ( South America / Africa)

3. Allowing intelligence to become politizied.


Im traveling for work this week through next tuesday though, so it wouldn't be until im home.

Waroduce
Aug 5, 2008

at the date posted:

Wow those are some very insightful + original points u presented there. You must come across as a real knowledgeable dude at frat parties. CIA is an oxymoron amirite?
I mean my post was short, because again phone posting, but im not trying to be a douche and he asked? I can cite historical examples and compare and contrast the CIA with the KGB directorates and their satellites for all of the above and maybe we can have a discussion about it and poo poo, but if people aren't interested thats fine too.

*back to lurking*

Waroduce
Aug 5, 2008
Hilary is giving an interview over CNN now with questions from the audience. its mostly softball poo poo and recent general history (iraq didnt sign agreement) but most interesting thing so far is she didn't rule out working with iran. interesting after the pentagon was like lol no yesterday and past administrations have taken a very hard line against them. i think the answer was along the lines of at this time not without some serious guarantees and knowing more. still not a no


also she mentioned that maliki is meeting with Suleimani in baghdad like right now as we speak in this interview and iran wants to use their troops and do for him what they did for syria, bulwark him and fold him in

Waroduce
Aug 5, 2008
NYT reports Iraqs largest oil refinery fell to Islamic extremists Wednesday morning, after army helicopter gunships failed to beat back an attack on the facility according to refinery workers, eyewitnesses and an Iraqi army officer who fled the scene

General Atta denied that the refinery has fallen but reports out of Baiji contradict that assessment.

Waroduce
Aug 5, 2008
LA Times reporting that brother of Afghan President Hamid Karzi, Hashmat Karzi was assassinated Tuesday morning in Kandahar province.

HASHMAT was greeting visitors at his home for Eid al-Fitr when an attacker blew himself up while embracing Karzai, AP reports citing a provincial government official.

Phone posting no link sry

Waroduce
Aug 5, 2008
In unrelated news, China is fuckin around with Microsoft.

Chinese gov forces have raided microsoft offices across the country


http://m.theinquirer.net/inquirer/news/2357581/chinese-authorities-mysteriously-raid-microsoft-offices

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Waroduce
Aug 5, 2008

Zeroisanumber posted:

Is this the corrupt-to-the-core drug-dealing brother? Because if so it's probably a net positive.

I think thats Ahmed

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