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uh This poll is closed. |
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| embiid |
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41 | 32.28% |
| wiggins |
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86 | 67.72% |
| Total: | 127 votes | ||
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This is your chance Declan! Instead of watching every college game and taking notes for us ingrates, you could get a job doing it for an actual (kind of) NBA team. Or MV, instead of moderating and dealing with such malcontents and head cases like Bashez or Doltos, you could be dealing with professional malcontents like Demarcus Cousins - it'd be like you never left!
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May 9, 2014 22:07
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| # ¿ Apr 24, 2024 23:32 |
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CVagts posted:Even taking Wiggins, I'd be a little worried about passing on Embiid, after seeing his highlights. I'm not really sold on Embiid like so many people in this thread, and it's not because of the possible injury concerns. I think it's going a bit overboard when people are comparing a guy who averaged 9.8pts and 6.5rebs per game in his one college season to Hakeem "Top 5 player of all time" Olajuwon. Even if he works out very well and becomes an all star at some point, there is a 99.9% chance he won't be as good as Hakeem, injury or not. It occured to me that it seems the vast majority of perennial all star, Hall of Fame type players all had incredibly productive college season(s) under their belt (excluding the high school guys like Lebron and Kobe of course), and I can't think of too many guys who had a "potential" year with low numbers in college who went on to greatness in the NBA. Obviously, you don't need Embiid to become a hall of famer to justify taking him first, but when you have someone like Wiggins or Parker available to you, it seems to be in your best interest to take one of them than a guy who really hasn't proven anything yet and has just shown alot of (admittedly really good) tools. The B_36 fucked around with this message at 01:44 on May 25, 2014 |
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May 25, 2014 01:42
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euphronius posted:Hakeem averaged 8 and 6 his freshman year. He also went on to have an incredibly productive few college seasons after that. I'm not saying Embiid absolutely wont be a good, all star level player, I was mostly commenting on the Hakeem comparisons. If you're going to say that he will be Hakeem if he's not injured, and use your #1 pick in a loaded draft on him, then you're hoping he'll turn out to be better than Andre Drummond. Drummond is good, and may get better, but you're looking for a top 5 guy in this draft, and there's much less chance of that happening with Embiid than with Wiggins imo. And I'm also not saying that 19yr olds should be trapped in college for 4yrs or anything, I'm a big proponent of guys deciding to declare for the draft whenever they want.
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May 25, 2014 02:08
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BIZORT posted:I'm not trying to get defensive at all over the videos but Embiid's shows him doing the Mikan drill, shooting a couple of very flat 15 footers, and basically just dunking beyond that. Parker's has a lot of dunking too but he shows a lot of quickness and shooting range, along with some good iso moves. I just don't really see what people are drooling over with that Embiid video. I'm not saying he's not any good or anything like that; I have almost nothing to go off of to make that claim. I just haven't seen the proof yet. He's quicker than most but he does look a bit mechanical, too I'm glad someone finally sort of agrees with me in this thread that the Embiid hype is somewhat overblown. A strong indicator of a big athletic unproven dude being a bust is people slobbering all over his combine tape. Any 7 footer who can physically alter his position in space makes it look like he's dunking on an 8' foot rim. Its kind of inherent with being seven loving feet tall. It doesn't mean he's Hakeem Olajuwon Jr.
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May 27, 2014 03:19
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Declan MacManus posted:You did it B_36 you made everyone realize that Embiid is not Hakeem Olajuwon Well, I hope so, because more than a few people here have said that if he avoids injury, he'll literally be as good as Hakeem Olajuwon. Look, I have a ton of respect for you and MV's scouting reports and views on college basketball. You guys do the dirty work of actually watching college basketball to attempt to find out who the next great NBA players will be, which is a lot more than I'm willing to do. But when was the last time a freakishly athletic big man with no real numbers or proven track record in college (Kevin Garnett/Dwight Howard being the exception bc they skipped college) came into the NBA and actually lived up to the hype? Andre Drummond doesn't do it for me - he's good, but he isn't setting the league on fire. In this draft class, the #1 pick better drat well be a future HoF'er or its a wasted pick right?
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May 27, 2014 03:36
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MourningView posted:If only he had also looked really good and fluid in basketball games that we could have all watched. He's looked really good and fluid in basketball games in which he scored 10pts and snagged 6rebs against 6'8" future accountants. And, in an offense that apparently highlights post play and should make him look particularly good. Where the wing player who should absolutely no doubt be the #1 pick in the draft, who is being underutilized, and who everybody knows will be better suited to the pro game with his athleticism and skill set, still managed to put up better numbers, because he's not just a raw prospect whose only been playing the game for a couple years.
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May 27, 2014 03:49
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MourningView posted:He put up good college numbers when you consider how many minutes he was playing, especially early. And they are particularly amazing when you consider that he's been playing basketball for like four years. If you actually watch him play you'll say that he's incredibly smooth and natural looking athletically in a way that a lot of the guys you're talking about weren't, in addition to having an incredibly high skill level for someone his age/experience level. He also improved dramatically as the season went on. I'd like to think my position is a bit more nuanced than what you claim it to be. First off, there's been plenty of freakishly athletic big men who were legitimately good #1 picks, but they all had a great track record to call upon. Secondly, I don't think Embiid turning into a really good player (a reasonable outcome) really disproves the point I'm trying to make here. With Jabari Parker, its very likely he turns into the next Carmelo Anthony, perhaps the best pure scorer of his generation, a top 5 player. And Wiggins will likely be even better than that, because he's more versatile, and understands that defense is a thing that professional basketballers should attempt. The question I'm asking is, as an NBA GM, do you pass up on those guys to pick a freakishly athletic but kinda raw 7 footer who's still learning the game? 9 times out of 10, the right answer hasn't been the 7 footer.
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May 27, 2014 04:08
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MourningView posted:Like if anyone thought that it was something close to a lock that Parker would turn into Carmelo (who is not a Top 5 player, but whatever), he'd be the first pick and no one else would be close. To say something like that about any prospect is insane. People have said in this very thread, without a hint of irony, that Embiid will be the next Hakeem Olajuwon, barring injuries. That's really what I was responding to - that's insane.k You and Declan haven't been that hyperbolic of course. Btw, if you don't think that Anthony is a top 5 player (something I can maybe agree with you on), but at the same time say that a Carmelo Anthony level player would be a guaranteed lock #1 pick in a loaded draft, then what exactly are you saying? Personally, I think that if you have a top 3 pick in a non historically bad draft class (like this past years), then its reasonable (tho obviously not guaranteed) for you to hope that guy develops eventually into a top 5 talent. Many of them statistically can't of course, but its a reasonable expectation. In this class, you're looking at a few guys who probably will be elite level talents, and probably at least one of them will be crazy good. Maybe that one is Embiid, but I think its more likely to be Wiggins.
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May 27, 2014 05:01
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Probably Magic posted:You're acting like the guy is getting drafted straight from Cameroon or from a mid-major conference. He was on a team with multiple blue chip players in one of the hardest conferences in college basketball. He's not that big of an x-factor beyond the back injury (which is a huuuuuuge x-factor, but you seem to be bringing up the stats more than that.) I'm bringing up the stats because I think they're important. He was playing against and WITH top level NCAA talent and produced mediocre numbers at a high efficiency. Great. So have a ton of "toolsy" guys with mind blowing measurables who teams used high picks on. They all had scouting tapes where they blew around stationary assistant coaches and dunked a lot. They all could hit a completely unguarded 15 foot jump shot and make it look smooth. They all had an eleven foot wingspan and a 63" vertical leap. They all looked really good in limited usage on their college team. GM's lose their jobs by falling in love with these type of guys. The type of big men who really make it in the NBA generally have a track record beforehand to indicate they're actually good players, not just potentially good players. Shaq dominated college competition. So did Duncan, so did Robinson, so did Olajuwon, hell, so did Kevin Love. We're in an era of weak post play, but even now the top big men were really good in college. Davis was unquestionably the best player on a championship team. Also, people look at some guys and say "he's only been playing organized basketball for 2 mths and look how much he's improved in that time!!" like that's a positive. It's not. NBA basketball is hard and takes years to get good at. Extrapolating the improvement a player makes in his first few years of playing and assuming he'll continue improving at anywhere close to that pace is ridiculous. Literally the only guy in the history of basketball who picked up the game late in his teens and actually became really good at is Hakeem Olajuwon. Its much more likely that Embiid has reached a plateau in his development (a plateau that enables him to avg 10/6 against college players) than it is that he'll keep improving at this pace when faced with competition that is nearly as big and athletic as he is. Everything that's been said about him has been said about the Eddy Curry's, the Tyson Chandler's, the Michael Olowokandi's, the Sam Bowie's, the Jan Vesely's, the Alexis Ajinca's, the Rafael Araujo's, the Andrea Bargnani's of the recent past. He'll probably end up better than all those guys except possibly Chandler in his prime, but if he's picked #1, I predict he'll be mentioned in the same breath as Sam Bowie. Also, I can't believe I'm going to die on this sword. Oh well.
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May 27, 2014 05:54
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MourningView posted:I don't think anyone from this draft is going to be a Top 5 player. I don't think anyone really does. If they did then there wouldn't be as much discussion about who should go first as there has been. Most drafts, even very good ones, don't have a guy like that. It's a close to impossible bar to clear. This is the very good draft, and more than that a very deep one, but it's not the supposedly league altering 03-like draft it was hyped to be before any of these guys played a college game. Wiggins isn't the no doubt about it superstar people wanted him to be. He still could be that, but he has a lot of flaws and it's going to take a lot of work on his part. He's a lot more likely to be a Paul George-level player than he is to be a LeBron type player, which is still really good. The guy in this draft who will be the best if he hits his ceiling will be Emiid, so if you really want to swing for the fences and try to get a franchise altering guy he's not an unreasonable pick. He I could absolutely see being a Top 5 player, though I wouldn't call it "very likely" for him either. Maybe there's a miscommunication here then? I meant top 5 player when that player is currently playing, not all time. Obviously its stupid to expect a guy to become a top 5 player ever if he's never played an NBA game. Even Lebron wasn't that hyped although he's gone on to be a reasonable candidate for GOAT already. This is a loaded draft, I think its reasonable to expect the top 3-4 picks to eventually become the best 3-4 players currently in the league at some point.
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May 27, 2014 06:04
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Blinkman987 posted:The thing is, with the top 5 players-- there are only 5 of them. And most of them will still be playing in a few years. Yeah, of course. Its not like each of the top 4 picks will ever be neatly ranked in 5 yrs as the best 4 players in the league. But still, it's at Ieast reasonable for each of the teams picking in the top 4-5 this year to think they got a guy who will become one of those top 5 players. Probably one of the guys picked later in the lottery (or likely someone the Spurs pick up with the last pick in the second round) will surprise everyone and be really really good as well.
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May 27, 2014 06:17
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Rick posted:Considering most drafts produce what, five guys that get a second NBA contract, I view this draft as loaded because it's projected to produce 5 guys who will probably be rotation players. I find this hard to believe. I would think that probably 90% of NBA contracts come from guys who were drafted at some point. Thus, almost every second contract is signed by guys who were drafted. Is there a source of NBA players I'm not aware of? Are their really that many undrafted D league call ups getting contracts? When's the last time an undrafted player made an all star team? Ben Wallace?
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May 27, 2014 06:21
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mynameisjohn posted:what on Earth are you talking about? it's reasonable for the top 5 teams to think that they'll get a top 5 nba player? that's not reasonable. Sorry, I didn't explain this well. I meant that each of the teams picking in the top 5 should have a reasonable expectation that there guy will be a top 5 player at some point. Thats reasonabe for most drafts. If the 5th guy picked in a draft doesnt at least have a reasonable expectation of being really good, then either you suck at drafting or its a shallow draft. All of those guys are going to be very talented and have a high upside (including Embiid). They obviously won't all pan out. One of them will be a bust and never be more than a serviceable rotation player, 2 of them will be all stars at some point, and the other 2 will be ok/good but not great. We just don't know which of them they'll be yet.
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May 27, 2014 06:34
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MourningView posted:Do you just not know how many 5 is? It's a really small number. It is only 4 more than 1. Do you not know the difference between "reasonable" and "guaranteed"?
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May 27, 2014 06:36
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mynameisjohn posted:you just couldn't be more wrong and there is an overwhelming body of evidence sitting in front of you that completely contradicts what you are saying. Maybe 2 in 5 is overly optimistic, but a simple "top 24" player isnt right either. I said an all star at some point, not every year. I'm pretty sure that every draft has had at least a couple all stars from it. Seriously, calm down. 90% of NBA players come thru the draft, and probably 99% of the players who see more than 100 minutes of court time. Since 24 is 6.6% of the approx 360 players on a 12 man NBA roster, and there are 60 players picked each year in the draft, and 99% of NBA players that will ever have a chance of making an all star team were drafted at some point, it stands to reason that approx 4 players from each draft class will make an all star team. Maybe I'm being stupid in thinking that a large majority of them will be picked in the top 5? Tho I did also say one of the later picks would turn out to be really good! So I think I covered my bases there too. Does your overwhelming body of evidence include "numbers"? Edit: maybe reasonable is the problem people are having here? Not expected. Like, if a player develops close to the max of his potential, he'll become a top 5 player. That's reasonable to hope for, but not expected. If he works on his jumper, if he can learn defense (Carmelo), if he could shoot a free throw (Dwight), if he could figure out how to use his athleticism effectively and stop being an idiot (Demarcus Cousins) etc. he could be one of the best players in the league. The B_36 fucked around with this message at 07:13 on May 27, 2014 |
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May 27, 2014 06:55
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WEREWAIF posted:The Bucks taking Wiggins will be awesome, that team will have so few basketball skills. Imagine the Brandon Knight, Wiggins, Giannis, Larry Sanders, Henson unit. Wowwweeee, I want to be a Bucks fan. If Dumars gets the Pelicans job I'll have to root for three teams. Is Wiggins looked at as being just a physical freak with no actual basketball skills tho? I thought he was pretty skilled at alot of things, and the athleticism puts him over the top.
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Jun 1, 2014 20:43
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Doesn't seem to make much sense for Philly to give up probably their best player in Young just to move up 2 spots to guarantee they get Wiggins, especially when the consolation prize would be Parker or Embiid. I've made my doubts clear about Embiid, but I think he's a good 3rd pick (just not #1). And Philly must know at least as much as we do about how the Cavs and Milwaukee are leaning with their picks, and that there's a decent chance they'll get Wiggins at 3 anyway. Then again, if teams that are routinely at the top of the draft didn't consistently trade away valuable assets for marginal gains, then I guess they wouldn't routinely be at the top of the draft, so who knows?
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Jun 12, 2014 20:43
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Declan MacManus posted:The old thread is still out of the archives but it didn't get started until January 6th and ESPN had him way up there for a while. Just to be clear, I was responding to the people who were comparing Embiid to Olajuwon, specifically to whoever said that Embiid was going to become the next Olajuwon if he could avoid injury, and also specifically, I was saying the comparison was ridiculous. Don't want people to think I was comparing Embiid at all favourably to Olajuwon.
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Jun 19, 2014 10:18
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| # ¿ Apr 24, 2024 23:32 |
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MourningView posted:I'm glad we have a forum full of doctors who can tell NBA medical personnel that they're being idiots We can tell when professional coaches and GM's are being idiots, so why not medical personnel too?
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Jun 21, 2014 18:58
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