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This year's NHL Draft is being held on June 27-28 in beautiful Philadelphia, PA: The belle's of this year's ball are: Sam Reinhart, C, Kookooknee Ice  Sam Bennett, C, Some Team With Stripey Jerseys  Sam Ekblad, D, Indianapolis Colts  Sam Draisaitl, C, Eden Hall Warriors  Big huge dude who might score 10 goals a year and be picked really high by the Maple Leafs, RW,  Here's some draft rankings:  And here's the pick order: 1. Florida Aaron Ekblad 2. Buffalo Sam Reinhart 3. Edmonton Leon Draisaitl 4. Calgary Sam Bennett 5. NY Islanders Michael Dal Colle 6. Vancouver Jake Virtanen 7. Carolina Haydn Fleury 8. Toronto Willie Nylander 9. Winnipeg Nikolaj Ehlers 10. Anaheim (from Ottawa) Nick Ritchie 11. Nashville Kevin Fiala 12. Phoenix Brendan Perlini 13. Washington Jakub Vrana 14. Dallas Julius Honka 15. Detroit Dylan Larkin 16. Columbus Sonny Milano 17. Philadelphia Travis Sanheim 18. Minnesota Alex Tuch 19. Tampa Bay Anthony DeAngelo 20. Chicago (from San Jose) Nick Schmaltz 21. St. Louis Robbie Fabbri 22. Pittsburgh Kasperi Kapanen 23. Colorado Conner Bleackley 24. Vancouver (from Anaheim) Jared McCann 25. Boston David Pastrnak 26. Montreal Nikita Scherbak 27. San Jose (from Chicago) Nikolay Goldobin 28. NY Islanders (from Tampa Bay (from NY Rangers)) Josh Ho-Sang 29. Los Angeles Adrian Kempe 30. New Jersey John Quenneville Trades Vancouver trades Ryan Kesler and a 2015 3rd round pick to Anaheim for Nick Bonino, Luca Sbisa, the #24 pick, and this year's 3rd round pick. Vancouver trades Jason Garrison , the rights to Jeff Costello, and a 2015 7th round pick to Tampa Bay for this year's 2nd round pick (#50). Vancouver trades the 2014 3rd round pick they received for Ryan Kesler to the New York Rangers for Derek Dorsett. Pittsburgh trades James Neal to Nashville for Patrick Hornqvist and Nick Spaling. San Jose trades picks #20 and #179 to Chicago for picks #27 and #62. Tampa Bay trades pick #28 to the New York Islanders for picks #35 and #57. San Jose trades pick #62 to Nashville for picks #72 and #108. LA trades Linden Vey to Vancouver for pick #50. Toronto trade Carl Gunnarson and pick #94 to St Louis for Roman Polak. Chicago trades Brandon Bollig to Calgary for pick #83 Also there will be wacky trades and Pierre Maguire having huge boners about 18 year old kids. Discuss who you think the Florida Panthers will pick first overall and will never be heard from again. Somebody fucked around with this message at 16:36 on Jun 28, 2014 |
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Jun 22, 2014 20:04
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If the Sabres don't end up with Reinhart I'm going to suicide.
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Jun 22, 2014 20:08
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Florida is trying to make a splash with new ownership and they're aggressively shopping the 1st overall.
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Jun 22, 2014 20:11
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Here is a nice site I like: http://www.mynhldraft.com/NHL-Mock-Draft/
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Jun 22, 2014 20:13
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sba posted:If the Sabres don't end up with Reinhart I'm going to suicide. I'm about 50% resigned to Vancouver trading spots with Florida and taking Reinhart 1st overall. The actual likelihood of this happening is much lower than that, but I'm mentally preparing for it just in case. And if it does happen, I want Buffalo to take Ekblad at #2 because I think he's gonna be really loving good and in five years all of this back and forth between him and the three top forwards is gonna look really loving dumb (because Ekblad will be the best in the draft class [and it won't be close] {just MHO tho}]) whatis fucked around with this message at 20:20 on Jun 22, 2014 |
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Jun 22, 2014 20:17
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Brodeurs Nanny posted:Florida is trying to make a splash with new ownership and they're aggressively shopping the 1st overall. Jim Benning has made it abundantly clear they like Sam Reinhart and want the first overall pick. Sort of a signal that the team is going in a whole new direction. I'd say there's probably a 50/50 chance that that's the case considering Kesler will be shipped out of town. I am kinda terrified as to what that will entail. Now let me tell you all about the glory that is Robbie Fabbri. Centre, Guelph. Regular season 58gp 45g 42a 87pts 55pims (14th overall) Playoffs 16gp 13g 15a 28pts 12pims (3rd overall) Memorial Cup 4gp 2g 4a 6pts 4pims (4th overall) Compare that to Sam Bennett Regular Season 57gp 36g 55a 91pts 118pims (9th overall) Playoffs 7gp 5g 4a 9pts (37th overall) Memorial cup N/A So what is the difference between the two? Bennett is 2" taller, 20lbs heavier and has been called the next Doug Gilmour. Scouts are idiots. Whoever picks Fabbri is going to be really happy with him. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FSprrrIv7fc
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Jun 22, 2014 20:21
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SBN's mock draft: http://www.sbnation.com/nhl/2014/6/18/5820800/nhl-mock-draft-2014-sb-nation-list-order-picks
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Jun 22, 2014 20:21
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Also the Canucks are going to take Jake Virtanen 6th overall because he's from Abbotsford and has a lot of goals. His career peak is David Booth, a guy everyone hated because injuries he received as a result of his style of play made him effectively useless. Virtanen has already had a serious shoulder injury and is currently rehabbing from surgery as a result. I am so excited to see him get rushed into the league and snap in half because BC BOY! e: Also drafting a guy you know to be less talented because he doesn't fit into your division's style of play is beyond idiotic, yet people keep going on about how more skilled players like Fabbri, Nylander, Ehlers, etc. won't work in Vancouver because the Western Conference is too tough. Just like how Patrick Kane, Matt Duchene, Tyler Seguin, Joe Pavelski, Jordan Eberle, Nate MacKinnon, Alex Steen, the Nuge and David Perron have all really struggled in the West because they're smaller players who rely primarily on skill. ThinkTank fucked around with this message at 20:31 on Jun 22, 2014 |
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Jun 22, 2014 20:24
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whatis posted:And if it does happen, I want Buffalo to take Ekblad at #2 because I think he's gonna be really loving good and in five years all of this back and forth between him and the three top forwards is gonna look really loving dumb (because Ekblad will be the best in the draft class [and it won't be close] {just MHO tho}]) Argument: Adam Larsson
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Jun 22, 2014 20:24
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The Panthers will take Aaron Ekblad and put him in the starting lineup.
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Jun 22, 2014 20:30
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Gotta love that draft order. Go Canadian Teams! 
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Jun 22, 2014 20:43
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Ah, the draft, perhaps the height of that beautiful brief flash that is team resignings, draft day, and ~*free agent madness*~. Godspeed, Hexy, bring us a 6'8" slow defenseman who never plays a game in Philly
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Jun 22, 2014 20:46
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Brodeurs Nanny posted:Argument: Adam Larsson Sometimes players drafted early don't live up to their billing. Sometimes they do. The only correct move is to draft no one at all
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Jun 22, 2014 20:46
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So from what I can tell, nobody has any idea what to think about Ehlers. On initial look, he's got a zillion points, so he should be a top pick. But then on a slighly closer look, some people who actually look at context realize he played with Drouin, so that's where all his points come from, so he's a way over rated pick. But then some people take even closer of a look, and it turns out he didn't score much of his points playing with Drouin, but rather on the 2nd line, now he's an exciting top pick again. But then some fancy stat people look into quality of competition or zone starts or something, and there's now worry he was playing mostly against 2nd line defenders, and juniors have a much bigger falloff between 1st and 2nd line defenders than we're used to in pro hockey, so now he's possibly a risky pick again. But then there's even fancier stats that invalidate this argument as well, and he's now a top pick again. Of course none of that matters because players get drafted based on the formula (Points+Height+Weight+Grit)/(Distance of birthplace to drafting team) or something.
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Jun 22, 2014 21:09
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I know you don't draft for need, but it'd be nice if the Blues could get a decent center prospect in their system.
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Jun 22, 2014 21:22
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Kreez posted:So from what I can tell, nobody has any idea what to think about Ehlers. On initial look, he's got a zillion points, so he should be a top pick. But then on a slighly closer look, some people who actually look at context realize he played with Drouin, so that's where all his points come from, so he's a way over rated pick. But then some people take even closer of a look, and it turns out he didn't score much of his points playing with Drouin, but rather on the 2nd line, now he's an exciting top pick again. But then some fancy stat people look into quality of competition or zone starts or something, and there's now worry he was playing mostly against 2nd line defenders, and juniors have a much bigger falloff between 1st and 2nd line defenders than we're used to in pro hockey, so now he's possibly a risky pick again. But then there's even fancier stats that invalidate this argument as well, and he's now a top pick again. People made all these arguments about Drouin playing with MacKinnon last year and welp, they were wrong. I'd tend to believe that Ehlers is legitimately talented.
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Jun 22, 2014 21:25
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Bennett is also five months younger than Fabbri. It's not a huge spread, but it's a consideration.
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Jun 22, 2014 22:00
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So to predict Montreal's selections, do I arrange the list by height or fighting majors?
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Jun 22, 2014 22:01
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ThinkTank posted:People made all these arguments about Drouin playing with MacKinnon last year and welp, they were wrong. I'd tend to believe that Ehlers is legitimately talented. also most of ehlers ev points weren't actually with drouin
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Jun 22, 2014 22:12
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Verviticus posted:also most of ehlers ev points weren't actually with drouin That's where the "BUT DROUIN DREW THE BETTER DEFENDERS!" argument came in. People seem to go to great lengths to point out why skilled forwards aren't as good as the ridiculous number they put up, but will make countless excuses to explain the lack of offence from 'power forward' prospects. It's bizarre.
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Jun 22, 2014 22:17
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Everyone thinks they can pick the next Milan Lucic when he's probably a 1/100 whereas the tiny dude dominating at every level is guaranteed value
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Jun 22, 2014 22:19
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Rene Bork posted:So to predict Montreal's selections, do I arrange the list by height or fighting majors? By weight duh
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Jun 22, 2014 22:58
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Kreez posted:It would be neat if someone who follows this kind of stuff way more could do an effortpost that shows some of the projected first rounders who get ranked very differently depending on whether you're more into fancy stats or not. Seems to me like Ritchie is one of these types? Fiala? Kreez asked this in the other thread, but I'm sure he meant it for here. Anyways, I'm no fancy stat guru but I'm a big fan of the draft and seeing if there's a way to project players statistically that filters out the white noise that is scout's pre-conceived notions of what a player should or should not be. Really useful statistics like Corsi/Fenwick, etc. aren't tracked for junior as far as I'm aware, so I figured the next best thing would be to normalize scoring based on a player's league and GP, and see who rises to the top. Pretty much the easiest statistical analysis you can do (I am hopeless at math and majored in history so if I can do it, statisticians employed by professional sports teams should be able to do something better I hope). I've been working on this on and off for a few weeks and I've only focused on the CHL because I have no idea how to compare across NCAA/European leagues, but basically my methodology is as follows: Determine a player's Goals per game, assists per game and points per game and normalize them so that every player is playing 72 games (the WHL plays four more games than the OHL and QMJHL). I then adjust based on the team goals per game of each league and see who rises to the top. Again, incredibly simple but it seems to work. For 2014 forwards I got the following: code:2004 NHL Entry Draft CHL Forwards code:code:Compared to players with the 10 players with a LASP above 60 and you have 9 of 10 players making the NHL with 8 playing 100 or more games. Of the eight players with a LASP that equaled a PPG or higher (70+pts), seven made the NHL with the only one that didn't being Ryan Garlock who had 71 pts. The same is true of other years 2005 NHL Entry Draft code:code:Ditto 2006 2006 NHL Entry Draft code:code:Obviously it's not perfect, power forwards do seem to put up relatively few points in their draft year (J. Staal, Lucic and Neal are all pretty serious misses with this system), but in general it seems to be a good way of looking at the draft. Players who score more points and put up a better PPG are more likely to be NHLers. The higher their LASP, the more likely they are to be effective NHLers. So really, if it came down to me choosing between three players in Ehlers, Virtanen and Ritchie for the Canucks at #6, I'd take Ehlers simply because he has the highest likelihood of success. While it is possible to miss out on a premier power forward in the other two, the point of a draft pick should be to maximize the possibility of the player turning into something useful rather than swinging for the fences and hoping for Lucic. ThinkTank fucked around with this message at 23:27 on Jun 22, 2014 |
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Jun 22, 2014 23:21
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Based on uh my research I want the Oilers to take uh *checks note card* Leon Dristal
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Jun 23, 2014 00:38
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here's some info for chicago fans on their new starting wingerGuignol posted:
checksin fucked around with this message at 01:28 on Jun 23, 2014 |
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Jun 23, 2014 01:13
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ThinkTank posted:That's where the "BUT DROUIN DREW THE BETTER DEFENDERS!" argument came in. People seem to go to great lengths to point out why skilled forwards aren't as good as the ridiculous number they put up, but will make countless excuses to explain the lack of offence from 'power forward' prospects. It's bizarre. Another thing strongly in Ehlers' favour is that he had such a great year in his first CHL season. Fewer seasons in the CHL is genuinely considered a relative positive (since it means that a player is excelling with less time having adapted) and is also, for example, one of the points in favour of Bennett (two CHL seasons) over Reinhart (four). There tends to be an assumption that Ehlers is a small guy who can score, since he's a Euro and sort of a later riser in the draft, but he's properly Kadri-sized. ThinkTank posted:Kreez asked this in the other thread, but I'm sure he meant it for here. One of the things worth underlining is that while various fancy stat people, especially Leafs bloggers, are big on Ehlers over Ritchie it's important to note that the biggest knock on Ritchie is his effort level. Pronman wrote this on him a couple of weeks ago (when he ranked Ritchie 18th): quote:Prior to this season, Ritchie struggled with injuries and consistency, but he got on more of a solid footing in 2013-14.
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Jun 23, 2014 01:57
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Gonna be real funny when Tampa ends up drafting Ehlers
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Jun 23, 2014 02:45
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Julius Honka is a pretty cool name.
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Jun 23, 2014 03:21
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Canucks apparently offering the 6th overall, Hunter Shinkaruk and a roster player for the 1st overall. I have no idea what to think of that.
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Jun 26, 2014 02:31
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grack posted:Canucks apparently offering the 6th overall, Hunter Shinkaruk and a roster player for the 1st overall. I have no idea what to think of that. Apparently that roster player is Tanev, if so then  . If not, it might actually be a pretty decent idea.
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Jun 26, 2014 02:34
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grack posted:Canucks apparently offering the 6th overall, Hunter Shinkaruk and a roster player for the 1st overall. I have no idea what to think of that. This would be a bad trade if the roster player as Tanev. I want to keep Shinkaruk though, he's the only pure skill prospect the Canucks have had since Raymond. 
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Jun 26, 2014 02:47
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So what pack of dumbasses draft Ritchie?
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Jun 26, 2014 02:48
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Steve Simmons got some great quotes from Josh Ho-Sang and now I need him on the Flyers. He's the cocky embodiment of what racists think PK Subban and Evander Kane are actually like. http://www.torontosun.com/2014/06/24/the-curious-case-of-controversial-nhl-prospect-joshua-ho-sang quote:“If I was a general manager and had first pick in the draft, I’d pick me No. 1 ... In three years, I’ll be the best player in this draft. And I have no doubt about that. I know myself. I know the other players. I believe in my ability. There are guys ranked ahead of me who are nowhere near me.” He's the best.
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Jun 26, 2014 02:59
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Rene Bork posted:So to predict Montreal's selections, do I arrange the list by height or fighting majors? Are we to assume you're already arranging by french?
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Jun 26, 2014 03:02
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So is Ho-Sang the wild card of this draft? Really skilled but also has ~ChArAcTeR iSsUeS~ Also, people keep mocking Ryan MacInnis to the Blues at 21 and if they take him there I'm going to kill someone.
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Jun 26, 2014 03:19
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Mike_V posted:So is Ho-Sang the wild card of this draft? Really skilled but also has ~ChArAcTeR iSsUeS~ Well I've seen it reported that more than half the teams in the league supposedly have him on a don't draft list because of his perceived issues. The scoring numbers in junior on a mediocre team along with the scouting profile (which is excellent) suggest he should be in the conversation in the 10-15 range, or arguably above that in the top 10. Most of the predictions I've seen suggest he will actually be picked in the 2nd round. So I'd say the likelyhood is high for a team to make an excellent pick and get a guy with a good potential to be a top line forward much lower in the draft than you would expect him to go.
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Jun 26, 2014 04:23
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Starsfan posted:Well I've seen it reported that more than half the teams in the league supposedly have him on a don't draft list because of his perceived issues. are you thinking of a dude who scored points this year because macinnis didnt do that i can think of 20 forwards i'd take over him alone
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Jun 26, 2014 05:34
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Verviticus posted:are you thinking of a dude who scored points this year because macinnis didnt do that no I'm talking about Josh Ho Sang.. For some reason I only registered the first part of that post in my head.
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Jun 26, 2014 05:36
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oh wow. i only read the second half of yours, lol yeah, i wouldnt be too upset if the canucks traded for the 10 and picked him even, i dunno. really hope he's available at 24 and they take him there
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Jun 26, 2014 05:38
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Verviticus posted:oh wow. i only read the second half of yours, lol I think there's a good chance he will be around at 24.. just from what I'm reading. I kind of doubt he actually ends up escaping the 1st round, there's too many good teams who can afford to gamble on a high reward player with supposed character issues at the bottom end of the draft. I don't think you would need to trade up to 10, or that there's enough value in picking him in the 10-15 range that you should make the move. This draft is deep in guys who are in that range of performance / projection - guys like Robby Fabri, Ivan Barbashev, and Brendan Perlini who will be available in that area. Once he starts slipping down towards 20, I think that's when a team like Canucks can sacrifice a 3rd round pick or something to jump up 5 spots in the order and grab him. It would definitely be a huge boost to their system to get a couple of potential top line talents in Ho Sang and whoever they pick at 6.
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Jun 26, 2014 05:48
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