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thompson
Jun 5, 2006


Hello everyone and welcome to the home of the degenerates. This here is the "NEW" gambling thread and hopefully it will be a successful reset of previous threads that have since died out probably because everyone is broke due to poor Bank Roll Management

What is a sports wager you might ask? Well, instead of telling you all the intricacies of bets and the types you can make, i'm going to let my friend Wikipedia tell you how you can place a wager against Vegas or some other bookmaking entity.

wikipedia posted:

Straight Bets - are wagers that are made against the spread. The spread, or line, is a number assigned by the bookmakers which handicaps one team and favors another. For example, in the NBA, when two teams play each other, one is perceived as being more likely to win. To attempt to make wagering on the underdog desirable, the bookmaker will give them points. Before game 5 of the 2012 NBA Finals, the Miami Heat were expected to beat the Oklahoma City Thunder. The line read: Miami -3, Oklahoma City +3. To determine who wins against the spread, the line is either added or subtracted from a team's final score. In the above example, if the bettor chose Miami, he would subtract 3 points from Miami's final score and compare that to Oklahoma's final score. For him to win his bet, Miami would have to win the game by 4 points or more. This is the most common type of bet in sports.

Proposition bets - are wagers made on a very specific outcome of a match. Examples include predicting the number of goals each team scores in a handball match, betting whether a player will score in a football game, or wagering that a baseball player on one team will accumulate more hits than another player on the opposing team.

Parlays - involve multiple bets (usually up to 12) and will reward a successful bettor with a large payout. For example, a bettor could include four different wagers in a four-team parlay, whereby he is wagering that all four bets will win. If any of the four bets fails to cover, the bettor loses the parlay, but if all four bets win, the bettor receives a substantially higher payout (usually 10-1 in the case of a four-teamer) than if he made the four wagers separately.

Progressive parlays - A progressive parlay involves multiple bets (usually up to 12) and rewards successful bettors with a large payout, though not as large as normal parlays. However in a progressive parlay, unlike a regular parlay, a reduced payout will still be made even should some of the bets lose.

Teasers - A teaser allows the bettor to combine his bets on two or more different games. The bettor can adjust the point spreads for the two games, but must get all the games correct to win and recognizes a lower return in comparison to parlays.

If bets - An if bet consists of at least two straight bets joined together by an if clause which determines the wager process. If the player’s first selection complies with the condition (clause), then the second selection will have action; if the second selection complies with the condition, then the third selection will have action and so on.

Run line, puck line, or goal line bets - These are wagers offered as alternatives to straight-up/moneyline prices in baseball, hockey, or soccer, respectively. These bets feature a fixed point spread that (usually) offers a higher payout for the favorite and a lower payout for the underdog (both in comparison to the moneyline).

Future wagers - While all sports wagers are by definition on future events, bets listed as "futures" generally have a long-term horizon measured in weeks or months; for example, a bet that a certain NFL team will win the Super Bowl for the upcoming season. Such a bet must be made before the season starts in September, and winning bets will not pay off until the conclusion of the Super Bowl in January or February (although many of the losing bets will be clear well before then and can be closed out by the book). Odds for such a bet generally are expressed in a ratio of units paid to unit wagered. The team wagered upon might be 50-1 to win the Super Bowl, which means that the bet will pay 50 times the amount wagered if the team does so. In general, most sportsbooks will prefer this type of wager due to the low win-probability, and also the longer period of time in which the house holds the player's money while the bet is pending.

Head-to-Head - In these bets, bettor predicts competitors results against each other and not on the overall result of the event. One example are Formula One races, where you bet on two or three drivers and their placement among the others. Sometimes you can also bet a “tie”, in which one or both drivers either have the same time, drop out, or get disqualified.

Totalizators - In totalizators (sometimes called flexible-rate bets) the odds are changing in real-time according to the share of total exchange each of the possible outcomes have received taking into account the return rate of the bookmaker offering the bet. For example: If the bookmakers return percentage is 90%, 90% of the amount placed on the winning result will be given back to bettors and 10% goes to the bookmaker. Naturally the more money bet on a certain result, the smaller the odds on that outcome become. This is similar to parimutuel wagering in horse racing and dog racing.

2nd half bets - A 2nd half (Second half) bet is also sometimes called a halftime bet. This bet is placed only at halftime of a particular sporting event. This bet can be placed on the spread(Line) or over/under. The resulting bet that is placed is won or lost only on the points scored by both teams in the second half only.

In-play betting - In-play betting is a feature offered by some online sports books that enables bettors to place new bets while a sporting event is in progress.

Juice

Again, Juice is a pretty basic concept, but the way in which it is presented greatly depends on what region you hail from/are betting from. A good description of juice is below, also from Wikipedia, but it works and is acceptable.

wikipedia posted:

Odds for different outcomes in single bet are presented either in European format (decimal odds), UK format (fractional odds), or American format (moneyline odds). European format (decimal odds) are favored in continental Europe, Canada, and Australia. They are the ratio of the full payout to the stake, in a decimal format. Decimal odds of 2.00 are an even bet. UK format (fractional odds) are favored by British bookmakers. They are the ratio of the amount won to the stake. Fractional odds of 1/1 are an even bet. US format odds are favored in the United States. They are the amount won on a 100 stake when positive and the stake needed to win 100 when negative. US odds of 100 are an even bet.

Decimal Fractional US Hong Kong Indo Malay Implied Probability
1.50 1/2 -200 0.50 -2.00 0.50 1 in 1.5 = 67%
2.00 Evs (1/1) +100 1.00 1.00 1.00 1 in 2 = 50%
2.50 6/4 +150 1.50 1.50 -0.67 1 in 2.5 = 40%
3.00 2/1 +200 2.00 2.00 -0.50 1 in 3 = 33%

Good Sites for US bettors:

Topbet - My personal choice. This company is run out of the Netherlands and has always been consistent for me. Easy to use interface, decently updated lines, and a good mobile platform are all perks. They're offering 50% on $250 first deposit right now.

Bovada - Used to be bodog I think. Seems solid and goons like it but i've heard their lines can be a little bit off of the beaton path. Also 50% on $250.

5dimes - I've used it and it's ok. Goons seem to like it. It has reduced juice which is cool. They have a cool new rewards program that I've never used and don't understand.

betonline - Never have used it but have heard it was a viable option.



BRMM AKA Bankroll Management

This is a very important topic to me and really is more valuable than anything else in this thread. Look, there are going to be trends. You are going to get hot and your are going to get cold. No one has the secret. It's gambling.

The secret to having FUN (if you aren't here to have fun, leave, no seriously. If you want to make consistent money go get a real job) is not bursting your load. Here's a great story from a page all about BRMM.

wunderdog.com posted:

A Tale Of Two Sports Bettors

Risky John and Conservative Bob each started the season with $1000 - their bankroll. They both decided to play the same games throughout the season but they couldn't agree on how much to place on each game. John was more of a risk taker than Bob so John decided to bet about $200 per game (20% of his bankroll). Bob was more conservative and decided to risk about $50 per game (5% of his bankroll). Risky John figured that if he bet more, he could win more. And he was right. In week one, their picks went 4-2. John was up $360 while Conservative Bob only won $90. John was very pleased with himself.

Week 2 produced the exact same result. Risky John now had a $1720 bankroll while Conservative Bob was up to just $1180. John was very happy. He encouraged Bob to bet more but Bob wasn't so sure about that strategy. What if their luck started to turn? Risky John preferred to think positively. Besides, they were 8-4 and they knew what they were doing! The first two weeks had proved that.

But then came weeks 3 and 4 in which they went 2-4, 1-3. A bad run for sure, but not uncommon during a 16-week season. In fact, losing streaks are inevitable and guaranteed during a season. Conservative Bob lost $235 while Risky John gave back $940. John now had a lower bankroll than Bob! John was now down to $780. Risky John felt the losing couldn't possibly continue so he stuck with his bet size of $200 per game. The next two weeks they went 2-2 and 1-3.

Guess what? Risky John was now virtually wiped out - down to $280. Bob, meanwhile lost $360 on the terrible four week run but still had $820 left over. One of them was virtually out of money, the other had over 80% of his original bankroll left.

What happened next? Well, John quit. And, the unfortunate four-week run was followed by a great 3-week run where Conservative Bob went 10-3 and another 8 weeks of hitting a very respectable 56% on average. Bob ended up the season at over $1300 - an increase of 30% on his initial bankroll.

The morale of this story is obvious but very few sports bettors practice it. Don't overextend yourself.

So how much should you bet? It depends on you, but it shouldn't be a large percent of your bankroll. You will see me break down Units in here. As a general rule of thumb, this is what a unit should look like to you.

0.5 unit - 0.5% of bankrol
1 unit - 1% of bankroll
1.5 units - 1.5% of bankroll
2 units - 2% of bankroll
2.5 units - 2.5% of bankroll

If I am loving confident (rarely) I will make a 10 unit bet. That's what I max out at. Typically a good confident play by me that is standard is 5 units.

Apps for tracking bets and overall performance

http://www.betbudapp.com

If you're serious about this, use this app. The only issue i've found is with not being able to plug in a line for the second game of a baseball double header. That was a one off. Everything else is great.

Features:

App tracks games in real time.
Customization fields on full edition such as juice, line total, etc.
Enter Paylays, teasers, run line, money line, literally everything you can think of except for prop bets.
Overall stats including % and total amount you are up.
Color coded so you can easily see how a slate of bets is coming.


And that's really it. Post what you would like about Bankroll management and keep track of your picks here. If a goon get's hot, it's always fun to tail and enjoy the ride.

Most importantly, only gamble what you can afford to lose. If you want to have fun, don't put life changing amount of money on this.

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thompson
Jun 5, 2006


Reserved.

thompson
Jun 5, 2006


Today's Picks:

MLB

Oakland -153 2.5U
LAA -164 2.5U
Cubs +150 2.5U
Baltimore +155 2.5U
Tampa Bay -122 2.5U
Houston +120 5U
Cleveland -144 3U
Cleveland -1.5 +140 1U



Stupid 3 team o/u 1 1.5 unit +571 parlay
Mets/Braves over 7.5
White Sox/Red Sox over 10
Padres/Rockies under 10.5

Year to Date Record 14-12-1
Up roughly 10 units.

thompson fucked around with this message at Jul 7, 2014 around 19:51

Ace Jameson
Feb 10, 2006

Whee! I'm Dick Tracy! Bang! Take that Pruneface!

thompson posted:

Today's Picks:


White Sox/Red Sox over 10


Red Sox can't hit, White Sox can't pitch, so this is curious to me but you never know I guess.

thompson
Jun 5, 2006


Ace Jameson posted:

Red Sox can't hit, White Sox can't pitch, so this is curious to me but you never know I guess.

If all goes according to plan i'll go 0-9 -23 units.

You never know is right though.

thompson
Jun 5, 2006


thompson posted:

Today's Picks:

MLB

Oakland -153 2.5U
LAA -164 2.5U
Cubs +150 2.5U
Baltimore +155 2.5U
Tampa Bay -122 2.5U
Houston +120 5U
Cleveland -144 3U
Cleveland -1.5 +140 1U



Stupid 3 team o/u 1 1.5 unit +571 parlay
Mets/Braves over 7.5
White Sox/Red Sox over 10
Padres/Rockies under 10.5

Year to Date Record 14-12-1
Up roughly 10 units.

Our debut night is not going so well together SA.

Oh well!

thompson
Jun 5, 2006


thompson posted:

Today's Picks:

MLB

Oakland -153 2.5U W
LAA -164 2.5U W
Cubs +150 2.5U L
Baltimore +155 2.5U W
Tampa Bay -122 2.5U L
Houston +120 5U W
Cleveland -144 3U L
Cleveland -1.5 +140 1U L



Stupid 3 team o/u 1 1.5 unit +571 parlay L
Mets/Braves over 7.5
White Sox/Red Sox over 10
Padres/Rockies under 10.5

Year to Date Record 18-17-1
Up roughly 11 units.

Finished up 1 unit yesterday. Thanks Astros! Join me ladies! I feel like the guy in the horse racing thread who was posting to himself.

Today's Picks:
Brazil -110 5U L
Cincinnati -1.5 -110 2.5U W
Arizona -119 2.5U L
Seattle -117 2.5U L
San Diego -110 2.5U L
Los Angeles +105 5U L
Texas/Houston Over 9.5 5U W
San Diego/Colorado Under 10 2.5UW

Year to Date Record 21-22-1
Up roughly 11 units.

thompson fucked around with this message at Jul 9, 2014 around 16:13

Chamale
Jul 11, 2010

I'm helping!


When Suarez bit that guy, some people won big after betting at 150:1 that it would happen. Did anyone anywhere bet on Germany giving Brazil their most lopsided defeat ever?

thompson
Jun 5, 2006


thompson posted:

Finished up 1 unit yesterday. Thanks Astros! Join me ladies! I feel like the guy in the horse racing thread who was posting to himself.

Today's Picks:
Brazil -110 5U L
Cincinnati -1.5 -110 2.5U W
Arizona -119 2.5U L
Seattle -117 2.5U L
San Diego -110 2.5U L
Los Angeles +105 5U L
Texas/Houston Over 9.5 5U W
San Diego/Colorado Under 10 2.5UW

Year to Date Record 21-22-1
Up roughly 5 units.

Lost 7.5 Units yesterday roughly, but we'll get it going today. Here are the selections!

Argentina -.5 5U
Dodgers +110 5U L
San Antonio Stars (WNBA) -4 2.5U
Kansas City Royals +102 2.5U
Chicago/Cinci Under 7.5 2.5U
Miami +115 2.5U
San Diego +100 2.5U

Year to Date Record 21-22-1
Up roughly 5 units.

AATREK CURES KIDS posted:

When Suarez bit that guy, some people won big after betting at 150:1 that it would happen. Did anyone anywhere bet on Germany giving Brazil their most lopsided defeat ever?

That's a pretty insane prop bet. I wonder where someone offered that? As for the Brazil/Germany game, you can see above that I was certainly on the wrong end of that one!

thompson fucked around with this message at Jul 9, 2014 around 22:09

Andre Le Fuckface
Oct 4, 2008



AATREK CURES KIDS posted:

When Suarez bit that guy, some people won big after betting at 150:1 that it would happen. Did anyone anywhere bet on Germany giving Brazil their most lopsided defeat ever?

This picture may or may not be real

thompson
Jun 5, 2006


Andre Le Fuckface posted:

This picture may or may not be real



Holy moly...

JoeRules
Jul 11, 2001


I've only been making sporadic baseball and UFC bets lately, but I saw someone talking about 5Dimes odds on Lebron, and decided to get in. 6u on Lebron not signing with Cleveland at +290.

jase1
Aug 11, 2004

Flankensttein: A name given to a FPS gamer who constantly flanks to get kills.

"So I was playing COD yesterday, and some flankenstein came up from behind and shot me."

Was looking for this thread since the other one died glad there is still some gamblers here.

I put 500 on the cavs to win it all at 65 to 1. A play poker with a couple of guys who work for the plain dealer and they told me to jump on it before the line moved. I didn't even think Lebron was coming back but I figured if he does it won't be 65 to 1 and now it's at 3 to 1.

Good luck all if I make anymore bets I will post them in here.

thompson
Jun 5, 2006


jase1 posted:

Was looking for this thread since the other one died glad there is still some gamblers here.

I put 500 on the cavs to win it all at 65 to 1. A play poker with a couple of guys who work for the plain dealer and they told me to jump on it before the line moved. I didn't even think Lebron was coming back but I figured if he does it won't be 65 to 1 and now it's at 3 to 1.

Good luck all if I make anymore bets I will post them in here.

65 to 1 has expected value that is off the chain now. That's a great pickup. Best of luck there!

I'm taking a short hiatus. Baseball is tough to bet but I'm taking a week to analyze and getting back on the horse! Football, basketball, and hockey are on their way soon too. Can't wait!

Its Miller Time
Dec 4, 2004



Hey guys, I have a gambling related question. I work in finance and often deal with heavy application of statistical analysis and probabilities. I came across this article by this professor of statistics about analyzing data to produce bets that are more likely to be profitable. His example was stoppage time in soccer. He realized that few sources tracked this data and that referees had very predictable patterns, allowing him to create a very profitable system. I was wondering if you guys knew a good source for large amounts of data on various major league sports, especially for soccer, which seems to have the largest degree of randomness. I realize you're not going to beat Vegas at calculating over/unders, but I thought it'd be a fun side project to try and identify some of the crazier and smaller side bets offered that might be inefficient. This could also have interested potential in in-play betting, in which they have to make spur of the moment calculations without the luxury of watching the ratio of inflows/outflows and other book's movements.

Its Miller Time fucked around with this message at Jul 29, 2014 around 22:34

coronaball
Feb 6, 2005

You're finished, pork-o-nazi!

jase1 posted:

Was looking for this thread since the other one died glad there is still some gamblers here.

I put 500 on the cavs to win it all at 65 to 1. A play poker with a couple of guys who work for the plain dealer and they told me to jump on it before the line moved. I didn't even think Lebron was coming back but I figured if he does it won't be 65 to 1 and now it's at 3 to 1.

Good luck all if I make anymore bets I will post them in here.

You're going to have some very interesting hedging decisions starting with the Eastern Conference Finals, assuming they get there.

Shear Modulus
Jun 9, 2010



jase1 posted:

Was looking for this thread since the other one died glad there is still some gamblers here.

I put 500 on the cavs to win it all at 65 to 1. A play poker with a couple of guys who work for the plain dealer and they told me to jump on it before the line moved. I didn't even think Lebron was coming back but I figured if he does it won't be 65 to 1 and now it's at 3 to 1.

Good luck all if I make anymore bets I will post them in here.

I know very little about betting on sports, but is it possible for you to take the opposite side of the bet now that the line has moved and arbitrage your way to a no-loss position (with less upside, of course)?

coronaball posted:

You're going to have some very interesting hedging decisions starting with the Eastern Conference Finals, assuming they get there.

C'mon, it's the East, they'll get there.

Pistol Packin Poet
Nov 5, 2012

Everyone needs an
escape goat!


Gotta play smarter this year for the nfl season

coronaball
Feb 6, 2005

You're finished, pork-o-nazi!

Interest check in a $20 ATS NFL Pick'em? Between this thread and the fantasy football thread we managed 16 people last year.

BallerBallerDillz
Jun 10, 2009

Cock, Rules, Everything, Around, Me


Scratchmo

I am a victim of Poor Bankroll Management™.

Fortunately I know the best thing to do in this situation. Chase. Hard.

thompson
Jun 5, 2006


Bobert51 posted:

I am a victim of Poor Bankroll Management™.

Fortunately I know the best thing to do in this situation. Chase. Hard.

Might as well. Hitting Vegas on Thursday. It's the start of gambling season for me with EPL opening Saturday and football quickly there after. It's almost that time!

thompson
Jun 5, 2006


Okie doke, football starts tomorrow. I went ahead and made a new deposit and bet on three baseball games tonight with some of my free play balance.

Here are tonight's picks:

Cleveland -1.5 -120 2U
A's v Astros Under 9 2U
Padres +131 2U

and for tomorrow (grabbing it before it goes down, one would think it would):

Texas A&M v South Carolina U60.5 2U
Washington State -7.5 2U

thompson fucked around with this message at Aug 27, 2014 around 23:52

soggybagel
Aug 6, 2006

I'm A Lonely Boy


One thing about Bovada formerly Bodog is they also seem to wait as long as possible to get their lines up when other sites get them up a bit early.

thompson
Jun 5, 2006


soggybagel posted:

One thing about Bovada formerly Bodog is they also seem to wait as long as possible to get their lines up when other sites get them up a bit early.

Yeah that's the main reason I switched off of them. That and the fact that they're really bad/slow at moving their lines with the action.

thompson
Jun 5, 2006


thompson posted:

Texas A&M v South Carolina U60.5 4U
Washington State -7.5 2U

Go ahead and add:

Texas A&M v South Carolina U60.5 4U
Washington State -7.5 2U
Tulane Tulsa U46.5 2U
Wake UL Monroe U45 2U
Wake Forest +2 2U
Houston Astros -139 2U
Baltimore Orioles -123 2U

(1-1-1 YTD since football started) Let's see if we can keep our wad until week 1 of the NFL season...

thompson fucked around with this message at Aug 28, 2014 around 16:40

Nolan Arenado
May 8, 2009



I've been doing terrible because I keep betting against the Royals. I figure they are due to choke this season away eventually, right?! I've almost lost all of my deposit money though, so my bets keep getting smaller...

I consider this entertainment money though, and I really want the Royals to make the playoffs, so I'm not too torn up about it.

thompson
Jun 5, 2006


OctoberBlues posted:

I've been doing terrible because I keep betting against the Royals. I figure they are due to choke this season away eventually, right?! I've almost lost all of my deposit money though, so my bets keep getting smaller...

I consider this entertainment money though, and I really want the Royals to make the playoffs, so I'm not too torn up about it.

Entertainment money is a great way of putting it. A rooting interest in whatever game you want at your fingertips.

BallerBallerDillz
Jun 10, 2009

Cock, Rules, Everything, Around, Me


Scratchmo

Well I didn't expect to hit the over this early in the Hawks game, still need them to mount a big comeback if I'm going to hit this parlay.

Nolan Arenado
May 8, 2009



thompson posted:

Entertainment money is a great way of putting it. A rooting interest in whatever game you want at your fingertips.

Yeah, I am honestly not very good at betting on sports, but I am very good at budgeting, so I can at least enjoy the betting roller coaster while knowing that losing has no real effect on my finances.

thompson
Jun 5, 2006


Today's Picks:

Soccer:
Liverpool +157 3U (W)
Aston Villa +143 2U (W)
Arsenal -125 3U (L)

Baseball:
New York Mets -115 2U (W)
Cincinnati +120 3U (W)
Angels -124 2U (W)
Padres +148 2U (L)
Tigers -113 2U (L)
Nationals +133 2U (L)
Baylor -33 4U (W)
Tennessee -4 2.5U (W)

thompson fucked around with this message at Sep 1, 2014 around 15:13

thompson
Jun 5, 2006


thompson posted:

Today's Picks:

Soccer:
Liverpool +157 3U (W)
Aston Villa +143 2U (W)
Arsenal -125 3U (L)

Baseball:
New York Mets -115 2U (W)
Cincinnati +120 3U (W)
Angels -124 2U (W)
Padres +148 2U (L)
Tigers -113 2U (L)
Nationals +133 2U (L)
Baylor -33 4U (W)
Tennessee -4 2.5U (W)

7-4 yesterday was nice. Just two plays today.

Padres -163 4U
Dodgers +105 2U

zapplez
Sep 3, 2006
Probation
Can't post for 10 days!


Twins moneyline
Detroit moneyline - Price as an underdog? wow
Mariners moneyline

5 units each

BallerBallerDillz
Jun 10, 2009

Cock, Rules, Everything, Around, Me


Scratchmo

zapplez posted:

Twins moneyline
Detroit moneyline - Price as an underdog? wow
Mariners moneyline

5 units each

I'm also in on that mariners moneyline, but parlayed with the under for 5U

Nolan Arenado
May 8, 2009



Sucks that the Royals/Indians game last night was counted as a push. I had hoped the bet would just be pending until the game is completed later in the month. gently caress the rain, I was a half inning away from winning that one...

BallerBallerDillz
Jun 10, 2009

Cock, Rules, Everything, Around, Me


Scratchmo

The Nards Pan posted:

I'm also in on that mariners moneyline, but parlayed with the under for 5U



Awesome, I didn't even get to enjoy that for a half inning. Bah.

Stiev Awt
Mar 20, 2007



My picks for today.

Baseball:
Tigers 2.07 (W) 2U
Athletics 2.55 (W) 2U
Marlins -1.5 spread 2.70 (W) 1U
Nationals -1.5 spread 2.50 1U

Football:
Tiger-Cats/Argonauts under 50 1.91 (W) 1U
Stampeders/Eskimos over 50 1,91 (L) 1U

At the moment I'm up nearly 7 units.

thompson
Jun 5, 2006


Detroit +131 2U
Milwalkee -112 2U
San Diego -117 2U

Nolan Arenado
May 8, 2009



You are welcome Royals fans, because I just keep betting against KC.

thompson
Jun 5, 2006


thompson posted:

Detroit +131 2U
Milwalkee -112 2U
San Diego -117 2U

Good 2-1 Night. 3 more plays tonight.

Seattle +112 4U
San Diego -129 2U
Detroit +113 2U

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Stiev Awt
Mar 20, 2007



Oakland -1.5 Runline 2.75 1U
San Diego -1.5 Runline 2.70 1U
Colorado Moneyline 2.23 1U
Baltimore -1.5 Runline 2.25 1U

I only have confidence in Arizona being really bad and Baltimore being really good.

e: The Packers are currently paying out 3.15 so I'm putting a unit down on that because why not.

Stiev Awt fucked around with this message at Sep 3, 2014 around 17:55

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